(37-13, 74%) NFL Week 2 Best Bets & Player Props 2026 — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00I'm Warren Sharp of Sharp Football
- 0:02Analysis and I'm pretty sure that this
- 0:03has become your favorite new sports
- 0:06betting podcast and that's because we
- 0:08continue to deliver successful bets and
- 0:12successful information and hopefully you
- 0:15guys love both of those aspects of this
- 0:17show. Today we're going to preview week
- 0:19two of the NFL season, week three of the
- 0:22college football season with a team of
- 0:24experts that I have assembled that are
- 0:26going to deliver best bets to you all
- 0:29show long. We're going to hit LSU versus
- 0:32Old Miss, the Bengals versus the Texans,
- 0:35the Jaguars at the Broncos, the Saints
- 0:37at the Ravens, the Browns at the Bucks,
- 0:40and the Monday Night Football game
- 0:42between the Giants and the Rams. And of
- 0:45course, what a lot of you guys come here
- 0:47for, the best bet of the week. I'm 37
- 0:50and 13 lifetime. That's 74% on podcast
- 0:54best bets after going 1 and0 last week
- 0:57and 14 and four the year before. And
- 1:00I'll be sharing another best bet during
- 1:02the show. So sit back, grab your
- 1:04notepad, and let's start breaking down
- 1:06these games.
- 1:10Before we get into all of our best bets,
- 1:13I'm going to hit on a number of things
- 1:14that I noticed from last weekend's games
- 1:17that you need to be aware of heading
- 1:18into this weekend's games and how it's
- 1:20going to relate. And the first one we're
- 1:22going to talk about is Houston's
- 1:24revamped offense potentially lowering
- 1:26opponent play volume. Now, we have a big
- 1:30concern, of course, in this game whether
- 1:32or not Nico Collins will be active. So,
- 1:34make sure that you're paying attention
- 1:35to that because it's definitely going to
- 1:37impact the outcome of this game. But we
- 1:41know that Nico Collins will make a
- 1:44massive impact whether he's here or not.
- 1:46The key question will be the sheer
- 1:49number of plays that we're going to get
- 1:52out of the Houston Texans offense if
- 1:53Nico Collins is here. The number of
- 1:56plays the Bills defense was on the field
- 1:58for in week one was nearly identical to
- 2:01the number of plays that the Detroit
- 2:03Lions defense was on the field for. And
- 2:05they played an overtime game last week.
- 2:08And I just want to say before we get
- 2:11deeper into the show, if you're betting
- 2:13the NFL this season, you need to hit
- 2:15that subscribe button right now. Not
- 2:16only do we give you picks, we also give
- 2:19you the information behind the best bets
- 2:22that we like. And I think that's going
- 2:24to help you breaking down the matchups,
- 2:26the trends, the officiating crews, all
- 2:28of the data. And if that's the analysis
- 2:29you want to get, make sure that you're
- 2:31subscribed. But as you keep going
- 2:33through here, um the Bills were scoring
- 2:35on explosive plays. Yes. So that meant
- 2:38that the Houston Texans were going to
- 2:40have more opportunities to possess the
- 2:42football. But let's look at their
- 2:44intent, which is the key thing here as
- 2:46it translates to their game against the
- 2:48Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. In the
- 2:51first half versus the Bills last week,
- 2:53the Texans passed the ball only 51% of
- 2:56snaps. That was number four lowest of
- 2:59any team last week. In the first half,
- 3:02they took 34 seconds for the play clock
- 3:05between snaps. That was the number five
- 3:08longest time to snap. The only other
- 3:11team in the NFL last week that went
- 3:14slower with a similar rate of running
- 3:16the football was the New York Jets. That
- 3:19was it. Houston also gained a new set of
- 3:22downs or scored a touchdown 78% of its
- 3:26series, up from 68% in 2025. It ran 73
- 3:32plays last game, which was second most
- 3:34in the NFL. And they've scored 30 plus
- 3:37points in four of their last seven
- 3:38games. So, this is something that the
- 3:41Houston Texans offense is morphing into
- 3:43a little bit more running, but the
- 3:44ability to keep you out on the field and
- 3:46wear you down. and we'll see if Nico's
- 3:49up and if that has an impact on the game
- 3:52this weekend between the Cincinnati
- 3:54Bengals and the Houston Texans. But
- 3:56definitely something to pay attention to
- 3:58in the future for the way that the
- 3:59Houston Texans are going to play offense
- 4:01this year. All right, next up I want to
- 4:03talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 4:05defense. Tampa's off of a loss and
- 4:07they're going up against the Cleveland
- 4:08Browns who are also off of a loss. Now
- 4:10look, I know that Deshun Watson was
- 4:13terrible. He is terrible. He's probably
- 4:15going to be terrible in this game, but
- 4:17the key in this game is he's going to be
- 4:19blitzed a lot and that's going to just
- 4:21reveal the warts even more when that
- 4:24happens. Todd BS dials up pressure at
- 4:26one of the highest rates in the NFL and
- 4:28I think he's going to have success
- 4:30getting after Deshun Watson because
- 4:32Deshun Watson holds the ball a ton.
- 4:34Let's break down some of these numbers
- 4:35here. Watson averaged 3.2 seconds to
- 4:39throw, which was fifth longest of any
- 4:42quarterback in the NFL last week. This
- 4:44is not a bug. This is a feature of
- 4:47Deshun Watson's game. He never had a
- 4:50quick time to throw. Even in his first
- 4:53years, rookie year, second year down in
- 4:55Houston. He holds on to the football and
- 4:59creates bigger plays, moves about the
- 5:00pocket, tries to go for some long longer
- 5:03plays down the field or ultimately then
- 5:05scrambles with the football. The thing
- 5:07though is he's not the same as he once
- 5:09was when he was younger and could move
- 5:11faster within the pocket, looked deeper
- 5:14down the field, and didn't care as much
- 5:17as it seems like he does now. He's not
- 5:20caring at all. He's keep bearing his
- 5:22head. He wants to avoid being sacked,
- 5:24but he's taking these hits in the
- 5:26pocket. He's fumbling the football, and
- 5:28I think it's going to be a disaster. He
- 5:30had a league high 19% sack rate last
- 5:34week's game against the Jacksonville
- 5:35Jaguars. That was the fourth straight
- 5:38start for Deshun Watson with a
- 5:40double-digit sack rate. Tampa Blitz last
- 5:44week at the second highest rate of any
- 5:46defense in the NFL 46% of the time. I
- 5:51think they're going to have a lot more
- 5:52success getting pressure in this game.
- 5:55If you're thinking about, oh, Tampa
- 5:56blitzed a lot, but it really didn't work
- 5:58last week against Joe Burrow, so maybe
- 6:00it's not going to work here. Maybe
- 6:01they'll dial it back. I encourage you to
- 6:04think again because they went up against
- 6:06Joe Burrow, who got the ball out in 2.43
- 6:09seconds time to throw, which was the
- 6:11fourth fastest. And as I mentioned,
- 6:15we know that the pass time to throw from
- 6:18Deshun Watson is a feature, not a bug.
- 6:22He holds on to the ball a long time. Uh
- 6:25in Cleveland, every single year that
- 6:26he's been there, he's averaging between
- 6:282.85 seconds and 3.3 seconds time to
- 6:32throw. Here's the last kicker on this
- 6:34game for me. The last three years,
- 6:37obviously, he didn't play one of them,
- 6:39but he's played three years in Cleveland
- 6:41here. The last three years, he has only
- 6:44played one game versus a defense that
- 6:46blitzed him over 32% of dropbacks. In
- 6:49that game, he completed just 57% of
- 6:52passes for 5.3 yards per attempt while
- 6:55taking eight sacks, recording one
- 6:57fumble. And that was the New York Giants
- 6:59defense in 2024. We're not talking about
- 7:01some sort of juggernaut like to 20,000
- 7:04Ravens or the 85 Bears. Like, we're
- 7:06talking about the 2024 New York Giants.
- 7:09They're the only team that blitz them a
- 7:10lot and they've recorded eight sacks.
- 7:12That was a 32% blitz rate. We're now
- 7:15talking about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 7:17that blitz last week at a 46% blitz
- 7:20rate. Last week against the Jacksonville
- 7:21Jaguars, Deshawn Watson was hit nine
- 7:24times, took five sacks. His quarterback
- 7:27EPA falls off drastically when he is
- 7:30under pressure. And also, he's terrible
- 7:34against main coverage. Five dropbacks
- 7:36versus man coverage. Last week he
- 7:38averaged negative -1.1
- 7:40EPA per drop back. Took three sacks and
- 7:43had only one completion on five total
- 7:46dropbacks. It's hard to average over a
- 7:49point lost on every single dropback
- 7:51because dropbacks are what's supposed to
- 7:53earn points more than rushes. And he's
- 7:55losing points just dropping back against
- 7:58man coverage. This is what Todd BS likes
- 8:00to do and blitz and apply pressure. I
- 8:03think it, you know, Deshun Watson is
- 8:05going to absolutely struggle in this
- 8:07game and, you know, this is going to be
- 8:09a fun game for Ruben Bane to record his
- 8:12first NFL sack potentially. It's going
- 8:14to be a fun game for Tampa Bay
- 8:16Buccaneers to get back on track
- 8:17offensively because they're going to
- 8:19have opportunities because I don't think
- 8:21the Cleveland Browns are going to be
- 8:22able to sustain drives with the way that
- 8:25Deshun Watson is going to play football
- 8:27against the man coverage and against the
- 8:28blitzes that Todd Bulls is going to
- 8:30throw at him. Last quick topic here to
- 8:33get into before we start breaking down
- 8:34the games is what is going on in
- 8:37Philadelphia. This Eagles offense
- 8:39failure to take flight. We saw it last
- 8:42week even though they won their game.
- 8:45The Eagles averaged 1.6
- 8:48yards per play on first down. That was a
- 8:52league low. That was the worst rate in
- 8:54the NFL. As a result of being so
- 8:56inefficient on first downs, they faced
- 8:59third downs 70% of their sets of downs,
- 9:04which was the worst in the NFL. For
- 9:07comparison, they're at 70%. The league
- 9:11average was 44%.
- 9:14We're not even talking about the best
- 9:15teams. We're talking about the league
- 9:16average 44%. You're way down here at 70%
- 9:20of the time. That means like seven out
- 9:23of ten times that you have a first down,
- 9:25you're going to end up in third down.
- 9:27That's horrible. And that was against
- 9:29the Washington Commanders defense. I
- 9:31know they're improved, but there's no
- 9:33excuse for that for the Philadelphia
- 9:36Eagles. Now they're going to be down
- 9:38Landon Dickerson, one of their key
- 9:39offensive linemen they're going to have
- 9:41to replace. I know he was struggling in
- 9:43the game last week, so you know, he
- 9:45wasn't at 100% anyways, but that's going
- 9:48to be something that they're going to
- 9:49have to overcome.
- 9:51We also thought with Shawn Manu calling
- 9:53plays, we were going to get Jaylen Herz
- 9:55under center and doing a lot of
- 9:56different things. Jaylen Herz was only
- 9:59under center for 34% of his draw of his
- 10:02snaps in total. But most of the time
- 10:04that they were going under center, it
- 10:06was just to run the football. He had
- 10:09only uh five under center dropbacks the
- 10:13entire game. They used play action just
- 10:158% of the time. That was the lowest rate
- 10:18of any team in the NFL. And it's not as
- 10:21if they were losing this game and so
- 10:24they had to abandon that and go to some
- 10:26sort of quick shotgun game. They were
- 10:27leading this game and sometimes by
- 10:29larger margins and yet they're still not
- 10:31going under center. They're still not
- 10:33calling play action. It's kind of
- 10:36disappointing at this point for us not
- 10:39to see a little bit more creativity,
- 10:41especially just with what happened to
- 10:43that offense last year and the reason
- 10:45why they had to get rid of their prior
- 10:47offensive coordinator because it was
- 10:48just so terrible. We thought we were
- 10:50going to get a lot more innovation
- 10:51potentially here. We did not see that in
- 10:54week one and it caused them to struggle
- 10:56and it caused them to punt the football
- 10:58back too often to the commanders without
- 11:00scoring points. They were scoring points
- 11:02on explosives. without those explosives,
- 11:04they were struggling with the
- 11:06consistency offensively and it gave the
- 11:08Commanders opportunities. You know, if
- 11:10Stefon Diggs doesn't jump on the goal
- 11:12post and hug it, uh then we're kicking
- 11:15an extra point. This game is probably
- 11:17tied going to overtime potentially.
- 11:19Instead, the Philadelphia Eagles are
- 11:21lucky to win this game by two points
- 11:24thanks to their defense playing
- 11:26outstanding football. And that's what's
- 11:28going to have to happen when this team
- 11:29goes on the road in Tennessee. This
- 11:32defense has to play lights out because
- 11:34I'm still worried a little bit about
- 11:36what this offense is going to bring to
- 11:38the table. All right, now let's welcome
- 11:39in our college football betting expert,
- 11:41Ryan Mcrist. We're going to talk about
- 11:44the LSU versus Old Miss game with Ryan.
- 11:46Ryan's got a take and a betting
- 11:48prediction on the outcome of this game.
- 11:50And I can't wait to watch this game. We
- 11:52got Lane Keifin going back to Old Miss.
- 11:55The former coach returns. He's been
- 11:57playing that villain role. Let's see if
- 11:59he can spoil things for Old Miss on
- 12:02their home turf on Saturday night. Let's
- 12:05kick it to Ryan.
- 12:06>> All right, week two's game of the week,
- 12:08LSU at Old Miss. I was all set to take
- 12:11LSU in this matchup and then on
- 12:12Wednesday, we found out that quarterback
- 12:14Sam Levit is listed as doubtful, which
- 12:16really threw a wrench into things. If he
- 12:17doesn't play, that's a huge advantage
- 12:20for Miss. If LSU has to throw an
- 12:22inexperienced quarterback out there into
- 12:24an extremely hostile environment with
- 12:26Lane Kein's return to Miss in that
- 12:29environment for a first-time starter,
- 12:31that's a bad situation, especially with
- 12:32a very experienced quarterback, Heisman
- 12:35contender, Trinidad Chamblas on the
- 12:37other side. If it comes if it if we
- 12:39eventually find out that Levit's not
- 12:41going to play, that would certainly seem
- 12:42to give an edge to miss. However,
- 12:46I'm not assuming that Levit isn't going
- 12:47to play yet. This is Lane Kein after
- 12:50all. And no coach currently in college
- 12:53football, maybe in the history of
- 12:54college football, has ever more brazenly
- 12:58abused the rule book. If he thinks there
- 13:00is the tiniest little gray area where he
- 13:02can wedge in there and gain an
- 13:04advantage, he will do it. And it's
- 13:06pretty easy to apply that logic to this
- 13:08situation. Listing Sam Leva as doubtful
- 13:11does not mean he won't play. It means
- 13:14that he has a 25% chance of playing.
- 13:17Now, if Gifin went through the whole
- 13:18season and just kept listing starters as
- 13:20doubtful, if Levit were doubtful every
- 13:21week and he kept playing, I'm sure Miss
- 13:23would get in trouble. But if he picks a
- 13:26spot in a big game against Miss where he
- 13:28decides to list a starting quarterback
- 13:30is doubtful just to play mind games with
- 13:32the other side and it turns out Levit
- 13:34plays, it's going to be pretty hard to
- 13:37prove that Levit wasn't hurt, wasn't
- 13:39dealing with some sort of injury,
- 13:40especially since he was coming off a
- 13:42season ending injury a year ago and is
- 13:44probably still recovering from that to
- 13:46some degree. It would be really hard to
- 13:49prove that he's not, right? if this is
- 13:51just a one-off thing or something that
- 13:52he does once or twice. It seems like an
- 13:55obvious evolution of Lane Kein always
- 13:57trying to gain an edge, especially in
- 13:59this matchup. Because the other reason
- 14:01why I think that Lane Keifin is probably
- 14:03playing with the rules loosely here is
- 14:05that earlier this week, Miss served
- 14:08Princeuel Oman, LSU's best pass rusher
- 14:11in a transfer from Miss with court
- 14:13papers because they're trying to get
- 14:15some money back from some of the guys
- 14:17who transferred from Miss and followed
- 14:19Lane Kein to LSU. Why would they serve
- 14:22him court papers this week? Seems pretty
- 14:24obvious, right? They're trying to get
- 14:25inside of his head and play mind games
- 14:27with him. and the culture of Lane Kein
- 14:30trying to bend the rules. He absolutely
- 14:31left that behind at Old Miss. Pete
- 14:33Golding has been doing all the same
- 14:34thing. Tampering with players before
- 14:36they're in the portal, tampering with
- 14:38players after they've already
- 14:39transferred to another program. Golding
- 14:42is up to the same tricks that we would
- 14:43expect from Kein. I think this was Kein
- 14:46punching back. It's just a theory. We'll
- 14:49find out on Saturday if he actually
- 14:50plays. I think the fact that the line
- 14:52has barely shifted. It shifted. LSU was
- 14:55favored by a field goal, you know, about
- 14:5724 hours. Since we've we've heard of
- 14:59that, it had shifted to, you know, just
- 15:01two minus two and a half. It seems like
- 15:04most people are at least thinking along
- 15:06the same lines as me that this it's
- 15:08tough to trust Lane Kein. Any other
- 15:10coach in the country says their
- 15:11quarterback is doubtful. It means his
- 15:12quarterback is hurt. But with Kein, I
- 15:14don't know that we can really say that.
- 15:16Now, I wanted to address something else
- 15:18about the princel Mellan issue because
- 15:21that was actually initially one of the
- 15:23reasons why I started to like LSU more
- 15:25was after Miss serves him with those
- 15:27papers because LSU's roster is filled
- 15:29with transfers. Now, on Miss's side,
- 15:32this is a huge game from them. A lot of
- 15:33those players are holdovers. Kein left
- 15:36them before the playoffs. They're bitter
- 15:38about it. We obviously know how the fans
- 15:40feel about it. So, it will be in a tough
- 15:41environment at Miss. But do LSU players,
- 15:45all these transfers really care about
- 15:47this LSU Miss game? They're not here for
- 15:49Kein. They don't really have Kein's
- 15:51back. They're here for the paycheck. And
- 15:53Kein Kein happens to be the head coach
- 15:55who's helping get them paid. But most of
- 15:58them, especially guys on the defensive
- 15:59side of the ball, have probably talked
- 16:00to Kein once or twice maybe other than
- 16:02when he's, you know, up in front of the
- 16:03whole team talking. They don't know
- 16:05Kein. They're not they're not amped up
- 16:07for this game to like help Kein get back
- 16:10at all miss for whatever reason Kein
- 16:13might have to want to get back at them.
- 16:14It's unclear exactly. He's the one that
- 16:16left them. So I I don't really see LSU
- 16:19getting up for this game. So initially
- 16:21in the offseason when I looked at this
- 16:22game I thought you know what this looks
- 16:23like even though I think LSU is the
- 16:25better team I thought Miss I would
- 16:27probably pick Miss when this game rolled
- 16:28around. This was one of the reasons that
- 16:31started tipping me towards LSU because
- 16:33those players don't know Kein, but they
- 16:35know Prince William Ellen, one of their
- 16:37best defensive players. So, some of
- 16:39those transfers on the defensive side of
- 16:41the ball that might not really see this
- 16:43as a rivalry or a big game other than
- 16:45just another good SEC game. They do care
- 16:48about their teammate and he's going to
- 16:50be pissed off about getting served those
- 16:51court papers this week. They're going to
- 16:53be extra fired up for this game. Well,
- 16:54Miss basically gave LSU's players a
- 16:57reason to treat this as a bigger than
- 16:59usual game the same way a lot of Miss's
- 17:01players were already viewing it. So, I
- 17:03think it almost like leveled the playing
- 17:05field from a motivation standpoint,
- 17:07which in college football sometimes
- 17:09matters a lot. A lot of big upsets
- 17:11happen when it feels like the Super Bowl
- 17:13for one team and for the other side is
- 17:15just sort of another game. I thought
- 17:17that that might be where we were at with
- 17:19this game, but I think that this back
- 17:20and forth has sort of leveled the
- 17:22playing field where both sides are
- 17:24coming into this game feeling like it's
- 17:25a huge matchup. Now, let's get into some
- 17:28of the ex's nos's a little bit and more
- 17:29than just the drama off the field.
- 17:31There's two big reasons why looking at
- 17:33the matchup and what we've seen early
- 17:35this season, I like LSU. The first is
- 17:37Miss's defense. I've got big questions.
- 17:40Like we said, they lost a few transfers
- 17:41who followed Kein, most notably Oman.
- 17:44their best pass rusher is now on the
- 17:45other side of the field. Miss in that
- 17:48first game of the year, they struggled a
- 17:49little bit against Louisville. Gave up
- 17:516.9 yards per play. I wasn't too
- 17:53concerned initially because it looks
- 17:55like Louisville found a good quarterback
- 17:56and Lincoln Keen Holtz, you know, he's
- 17:58he was a playmaker for them. It seems
- 18:00like Louisville has a good offense. But
- 18:02then last week against Charlotte who
- 18:04went 1 and 11 last year and opened the
- 18:06season losing to the Citadel, an FCS
- 18:09program, they allowed 5.3 yards per
- 18:12play. Now, the final score wasn't close.
- 18:14Miss was never in trouble in that game,
- 18:17but Miss's defense did not step up and
- 18:20dominate the way you would expect them
- 18:22to dominate one of the worst FBS
- 18:23programs. And that's a major red flag,
- 18:26especially when you factor in how they
- 18:27looked against Louisville. So, I have
- 18:29some serious questions. And we also,
- 18:31especially if Levit plays, we know what
- 18:33LSU's offense is capable of. Keifin is
- 18:35going to be able to exploit the
- 18:36weaknesses in that defense. At the very
- 18:39least, it's going to be a high-scoring
- 18:40game because I don't see any reason why
- 18:42Miss's defense the way they've looked
- 18:44can slow down what we've seen from LSU.
- 18:47Now, the other issue is when LSU is on
- 18:49offense. Obviously, they're going to
- 18:50make plays. Trinidad Chamblas, he's a
- 18:52legitimate Heisman contender. He's going
- 18:53to put up some points, but I worry about
- 18:55the offensive line, especially in the
- 18:57run game against LSU's defense. Miss was
- 19:00breaking in two new starters at both
- 19:01tackle positions. And then in the season
- 19:03opener, they lost their right tackle. So
- 19:05now they've got an inexperienced right
- 19:07tackle out there as well. You know,
- 19:09there's a chance their their initial
- 19:11starter is going to be back for this
- 19:12game, but you know, he's on the injury
- 19:14report. If he does play, he's going to
- 19:15be less than 100%. It's a bad situation
- 19:17going up against a good LSU defense
- 19:20here. You know, this was one of the area
- 19:22the run game specifically was one of the
- 19:23areas where LSU was actually already
- 19:25pretty good last season, even though
- 19:27they had some issues on defense based on
- 19:29opponent adjusted numbers. LSU ranked
- 19:32fifth in the nation in yards allowed
- 19:34before contact. So, they were already
- 19:35excelling at getting to the line of
- 19:37scrimmage, getting into the back field,
- 19:39and we've seen them just pick up right
- 19:41where they left off. They've been
- 19:42absolutely dominant through two games
- 19:43this year. They're allowing 0.2 yards
- 19:46before contact per attempt to running
- 19:49backs and they're contacting opposing
- 19:51running backs behind the line of
- 19:52scrimmage 66% of the time. Now, they had
- 19:55an easy game last week, but you know,
- 19:57they did play Clemson in week one.
- 19:59Clemson is not a good, you know, a good
- 20:01power five team, but they are they are a
- 20:03power conference opponent who can run
- 20:04the ball a little bit. I I think this
- 20:07LSU defense is going to be really nasty,
- 20:09especially against the run with LSU
- 20:10having some inexperience and some
- 20:12injuries on the offensive line. I think
- 20:13that's a bad situation. I think it's
- 20:15really going to put the whole offense on
- 20:17Chambless's back and I just don't know
- 20:19if he's got the weapons surrounding him
- 20:21in the way that LSU does. So, if Sam Lev
- 20:24plays, I think LSU can dominate this
- 20:26game. If you want to wait to see if he
- 20:29actually plays before betting it, that's
- 20:30absolutely reasonable. But if you're
- 20:33thinking along the same lines as me, I
- 20:35think maybe Kein actually gave us a
- 20:36little bit of an edge here, lowering
- 20:37this line to below a field goal. So, I
- 20:39will lay the points and take LSU in this
- 20:41matchup. All right, I tell you what,
- 20:43it'll be interesting to see if it plays
- 20:45out the way that Ryan thinks, but no
- 20:46doubt about it, he's got some great data
- 20:48to support his position. Let's take a
- 20:50quick break. We are taking a quick break
- 20:53because our week 2 special is still
- 20:55running and I don't want you to miss out
- 20:57on it. Later on in this show, I'm going
- 20:59to give you my best bet of the week and
- 21:01I am 37 and 13 the 74% lifetime on those
- 21:05podcast bets and I'm sure it's one of
- 21:07your favorite segments on the show. But
- 21:09my clients over at Sharp Football
- 21:11Analysis get a lot more than one best
- 21:14bet from me. Not only do they get all of
- 21:16my NFL recommendations, but they also
- 21:18get push alerts sent straight to their
- 21:20phone every single time I release a new
- 21:22play with our app. Last week, I got off
- 21:24to a hot start on elevated props, going
- 21:277 and one. That's 88% improving my
- 21:29perfect record on 1.25 unit plays to 12
- 21:33and 0 lifetime. If you want to win with
- 21:36us this season, I've got the great offer
- 21:38for you to get all of our
- 21:40recommendations plus all of our
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- 21:49you the first two weeks absolutely free.
- 21:52Just use code show35 on our NFL Plus
- 21:56monthly package and you'll get a full
- 21:58month of my NFL betting recommendations,
- 22:01plus Rich Reubar's breakdowns of every
- 22:03single game for the price of just two
- 22:05weeks. Go to sharp. Football, use code
- 22:08show35 to get on board before kickoff on
- 22:11Sunday. All right, now it's time for one
- 22:13of my favorite segments of the show.
- 22:16It's when I'm joined by Rich Reebar, our
- 22:19fantasy football expert over at Sharp
- 22:20Football Analysis and member of the
- 22:22Sharp Prop Squad. He loves Ben and Props
- 22:25as much as we all do and as much as you
- 22:27guys do at home as well. He's got three
- 22:30of his favorite props for you this week.
- 22:33Two different games. We're gonna first
- 22:35start talking about the game between the
- 22:37New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore
- 22:39Ravens where he has one prop there and
- 22:41that prop is going to be on Lamar
- 22:44Jackson and his passing yards. Rich, I
- 22:46know this is probably related to the
- 22:49fact that Baltimore's got some injuries.
- 22:51Their point spread favors this as well.
- 22:53Uh right now you can find Lamar Jackson
- 22:56under 221 and a half yards over here at
- 23:00DraftKings. So that's the line we'll go
- 23:02with for the show. Talk to us about why
- 23:05you like this one.
- 23:06>> This one has a multiple pulling pulling
- 23:08factors. Obviously, you know, with if Z
- 23:11Flowers doesn't play and Jacobe Lane
- 23:12already being out, that's that's two
- 23:14wide receivers. The Ravens are being
- 23:15down, but it also has to go into
- 23:18incorporating the game climate and the
- 23:21opponent. Uh just four players have hit
- 23:24this number against the Saints since
- 23:26they hired Brandon Staley. Jared Goff
- 23:28needed 39 passes in overtime last week.
- 23:30to throw for 206 yards. Uh we're not
- 23:33going to get 39 pass attempts with the
- 23:35Ravens as uh you know home seven point
- 23:37home favorites without you know
- 23:39potentially two wide receivers. So in
- 23:42general this is a good line I think
- 23:43anyways without even factoring any of
- 23:45those things. Um and then when you
- 23:48factor in them being seven-point
- 23:49favorites and where the Saints, you
- 23:51know, struggled uh last week really was
- 23:54defending the run and outside zone runs.
- 23:56We really went into that heavy on the
- 23:58matchup show with Derrick Henry. So,
- 24:00check that out. I think this just sets
- 24:01up to be a Derrick Henry game. So, and
- 24:04then last week the
- 24:06uh Indianapolis Colts played man
- 24:08coverage at the highest rate of the NFL.
- 24:10Lamar Jackson had 18 yards per pass
- 24:12attempt. 18 yards per pass attempt
- 24:14against cover one, which the Colts
- 24:16played uh 39% of the time to open the
- 24:18year. Brandon S played man coverage 1.4%
- 24:21of snaps uh in week one. Uh that was the
- 24:24case last year, too. their bottom five
- 24:26team. He plays very passive. Uh makes
- 24:28you throw underneath the it's predicated
- 24:30on coming up coming up and tackling. So
- 24:34all those factors in here have me
- 24:36leading to Lamar Jackson and under.
- 24:39>> I love that stat. It's almost hard to
- 24:41believe. I know that they played the
- 24:43terrible quarterbacks in the NFC South,
- 24:45but for Staley to allow this number only
- 24:47four times since he's been there, which
- 24:50obviously is what, like 18 games, uh
- 24:53that's that's pretty remarkable. So,
- 24:55we'll see how this one goes. Your next
- 24:56game is the huge matchup between the
- 25:00Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville
- 25:02Jaguars. You've got two of your favorite
- 25:03props from this game specifically. So,
- 25:06let's start with another passing yards
- 25:07prop. We're going to look at Bo Knicks
- 25:10passing yards for the uh Denver Broncos.
- 25:13Right now, you can go under 222 and a
- 25:16half over at DraftKings. It's 220 and a
- 25:19half at several other spots out there.
- 25:21So, this is the best line for sure. Talk
- 25:24to us about why you like Bonix under his
- 25:27222 and a half passing yards here.
- 25:31Obviously didn't come anywhere close to
- 25:33this last week against the Kansas City
- 25:35Chiefs who just maintained massive time
- 25:37of possession on Monday Night Football
- 25:39and Bonenix certainly looked terrible.
- 25:42Do they figure it out in this game,
- 25:44Rich? And uh give me a quick opine if
- 25:47you will about the play calling
- 25:49situation there. This is pure
- 25:51speculation on your part, but what
- 25:53happens there? How long does Shawn
- 25:54Payeyton bite his lip? Is he heavily
- 25:56involved in the game plan for this
- 25:58week's game? Does he does he get into
- 26:00the headset during timeouts and help
- 26:01steer things? At what point might he
- 26:03take over play calling entirely? Talk to
- 26:06us about that as you talk to us about
- 26:07why you like Bo Knicks over his passing
- 26:09yards.
- 26:11>> Yeah. Yeah. There's like I saw the
- 26:12interview of Shawn Payeyton at halftime.
- 26:14They asked if he was going to call plays
- 26:15and he was like, "We'll see how this
- 26:16goes." And you just kind of flip, you
- 26:18know, it's always tongue and cheek, but
- 26:19it was it was a disaster, right? Like
- 26:21you can't get excited to bet about what
- 26:23you saw on uh an over for based on what
- 26:25you saw on Monday night. Like I
- 26:26understand, but uh this was this one's
- 26:29pretty far away from my projection here.
- 26:31And I don't know if anyone listened to
- 26:33the show last year, but we actually gave
- 26:35out this same prop at a way higher
- 26:37number last year in this matchup. Uh and
- 26:40that's why I kind of want to have some
- 26:41faith you kind of going back here. The
- 26:44Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of
- 26:46last year are the number two pass funnel
- 26:48in the NFL. Teams have thrown the ball 4
- 26:50and a.5% over expectations against them.
- 26:53They have an awesome run defense, which
- 26:54we'll get into in a second. Uh, in this
- 26:57matchup last year, the Denver Broncos
- 26:58threw the ball 9.6%
- 27:00over pass rate expectations. Bonix had
- 27:0347 pass attempts. Uh, threw for 350
- 27:06yards in this matchup. They're just
- 27:08going to have to throw in this in this
- 27:10game. So, I want to play from a value
- 27:12perspective. Obviously, we are, you
- 27:14know, taking a step of faith that
- 27:15they're going to, you know, throw for
- 27:16more than 4.7 yards or pass attempt and
- 27:18that Boon Knicks is going to throw the
- 27:20football downfield to the degree where
- 27:22we told we were told this preseason they
- 27:24were going to and did not see in week
- 27:26one. We talked about in the matchup show
- 27:28giving some of these firsttime play
- 27:29callers that ran up against good
- 27:32defensive coordinators. Uh maybe a
- 27:35little bit of of a grace period, a
- 27:37little bit of cart blanch. You know, we
- 27:38had David Blau going against Vic Fangio
- 27:40and David Webb winning against Steve
- 27:41Spagnolo on the road in week one. Uh
- 27:44Steve Spagnolo's made a lot of a lot of
- 27:45play callers look bad. Uh I do think
- 27:47that they'll that we're going to see a
- 27:49lot of passing in this game and see a
- 27:50bounceback at least in terms of counting
- 27:52stats. Like that's not me saying like
- 27:54the Denver Broncos are going to look
- 27:55like this, you know, you know, air it
- 27:57out and look like this awesome offense
- 27:59because in that game that they played in
- 28:01week 16 year ago, Bonick's drew for a
- 28:03lot of yards, but they lost the game and
- 28:05it wasn't particularly pretty. But this
- 28:07this line being 220 and a2 I think is
- 28:10significantly low. Shawn Watson threw
- 28:12for 205 yards against them in week one
- 28:14on just 22 passes. I know some of that
- 28:16was you know late game script but that's
- 28:18why you know also you you get this
- 28:20factored in. I have this one just as a
- 28:22median projection in the 240s. Uh this
- 28:24is one last year we laded into the 300s
- 28:27and obviously got the 350. So um looking
- 28:30at Jacksonville they had the highest you
- 28:31know success rate uh per passing play in
- 28:33in week one. Uh, I think they're going
- 28:36to drive game scripts because this
- 28:37offense looks like an absolute wagon.
- 28:39Uh, and that's what we're going to have
- 28:41here where the Denver is chasing points
- 28:42and potentially having to throw the
- 28:44football against this very pass funnel
- 28:46defense. Yeah, a couple of your props
- 28:48this week are unders. And so this is the
- 28:50only over and we always like to ask you
- 28:53when you're betting one of these overs,
- 28:54do you like the lading potential here?
- 28:56So it sounds like you do. You have the
- 28:58line at 240. Uh, do you think that you
- 29:01ladder higher than 250 here? I know we
- 29:04said we laded it even higher last year,
- 29:06but uh where would you kind of want to
- 29:08stop with your own personal lading?
- 29:11>> I mean I honestly personally I probably
- 29:13will take this to the threes uh just by
- 29:16that I mean the way that Jacksonville
- 29:18opened the season compared to where they
- 29:20left off like I have kind of no
- 29:22questions about this unit. I mean they
- 29:24went into they went into Denver last
- 29:25year and put up 38 points. Uh, I think
- 29:28they're going to with Denver coming, you
- 29:30know, on a short week on the road, I
- 29:32think they're going to move the
- 29:33football. So, I I I still probably would
- 29:36take this to three uh on my own, but
- 29:38like, you know, definitely probably 250
- 29:40if you want to stop. Uh, we didn't even
- 29:41say like, you know, week one, you know,
- 29:43you know, the week one's always kind of
- 29:44a wonky week and we had like one great
- 29:46ladder with Devon Veillay and I also
- 29:48gave you guys an over for a player that
- 29:50had zero yards in the game. So, you
- 29:52know, we're, you know, we're working
- 29:54some things through. We're trying to
- 29:55find that sample size and work some
- 29:57things out as well. But, uh, this is one
- 29:59where I think we're it's overactoring,
- 30:01overindexing what happened in week one
- 30:03for the Denver Broncos. Uh, and I do
- 30:05think that they're going to have some
- 30:06passing success here, at least in terms
- 30:07of counting stats.
- 30:09>> Yeah, I'm looking at uh, some of the
- 30:11odds here. 300 plus yards is as high as
- 30:16plus 690. Uh 275 plus yards is
- 30:22uh as I scroll through here uh plus 300.
- 30:27Uh 280 is plus 410. So there's some nice
- 30:31payouts on some of the ladders if Boicks
- 30:34cross our fingers can get back on track
- 30:36here in week two against the Jags pass
- 30:39funnel. And that leads us to your second
- 30:42prop. same game and you're going to the
- 30:45same Denver Broncos offense, but this
- 30:46time you're looking at an under and
- 30:48you're looking at the under on JK
- 30:50Dobbins rushing yards. Right now, the
- 30:52best line in the market that we're
- 30:54seeing is 61 and a half. So, you can
- 30:56find 61 a half out there and you're
- 30:58looking to go under 61 and a half yards
- 31:01against the Jacksonville Jaguars run
- 31:03defense. Talk to us about that. Yeah,
- 31:05one thing I'll say at the top of this to
- 31:06keep an eye on is you might end up
- 31:08getting a better number on this later in
- 31:10the week depending what happens with
- 31:11R.J. Harvey. Uh he missed practiced
- 31:13yesterday with a hamstring injury, but
- 31:15because Denver played on Monday night,
- 31:16it wasn't a true practice day. It was a
- 31:18speculation. He finished the game. So,
- 31:19it seems like it could just be
- 31:21precautionary, but just something to
- 31:22keep an eye on because if R.J. Harvard
- 31:24to be ruled out, you might get a couple
- 31:25extra yards on this uh where it goes up.
- 31:28But I still think this number in general
- 31:30gives you a lot of outs. One, if R.J.
- 31:32Harvey plays, we know that there's
- 31:33potential there's just going to be a
- 31:34backfield split. Uh I already talked
- 31:36about too the Jacksonville Jaguars being
- 31:39a a pass funnel and pushing teams to
- 31:41throw the football at a higher rate for
- 31:43expectation. And it's not just because
- 31:45they're a good offense and they score
- 31:46points. They're also a really good run
- 31:48defense. In 2025, they were fourth in
- 31:51the NFL in yards per carry allowed the
- 31:53running backs. They come right back out
- 31:54in week one and allow 34 yards on 13
- 31:57runs. Yes, Cleveland Browns, but again,
- 31:59proof of concept to last year. This is
- 32:01something consistent. Just three running
- 32:03backs since the start of last year have
- 32:05run for 62 or more yards against the
- 32:07Jacksonville Jaguars and two of them
- 32:08were Jonathan Taylor. So, uh, this was
- 32:11one they're a team that we had a lot of
- 32:12success, you know, betting unders, uh,
- 32:14last last year in the run game. This
- 32:16one, I think, for all the things we
- 32:18covered with the Bo Knicks angle, the
- 32:19potential of a backfield split in the
- 32:21matchup uh, just correlates really well
- 32:23and lines up uh, with what we talked
- 32:25about. So, this one uh, we'll put a bow
- 32:28on that with that. All right, so we got
- 32:30three outstanding props from Rich
- 32:32Reebar. One lading opportunity, two
- 32:34unders. Great appearance here in week
- 32:37two's episode. Looking forward to more.
- 32:40Good luck with everything this weekend,
- 32:41Rich. Good luck. All right, now it's
- 32:43time for our outstanding referee expert
- 32:46Joe Gibbs to break down three of the
- 32:49most impactful games where he's going to
- 32:51be talking about that third team on the
- 32:54field. You've got team A, team B, and
- 32:56the refs. And the refs definitely have
- 32:59trends and tendencies that need to be
- 33:01incorporated into your analysis. This
- 33:04week he's going to hit the Cincinnati
- 33:06Bengals at the Houston Texans, the
- 33:07Jacksonville Jaguars at the Denver
- 33:09Broncos, and the Monday Night Football
- 33:11game when the New York Giants travel to
- 33:14take on the Los Angeles Rams. Three
- 33:16great games. Let's hear what Joe has to
- 33:19say.
- 33:19>> Okay, Bengals at Texans Adrien Hill, the
- 33:21referee. Uh last week 66% of penalties
- 33:25from Hills crew on the offensive side of
- 33:27the ball. That was the Patriots Seahawks
- 33:29game. After one week they lead the
- 33:31league in false start penalties. Last
- 33:33season 2025 they led the league in
- 33:34offensive holding penalties per game. So
- 33:37there is an emphasis from these guys
- 33:38along that line of scrimmage and the
- 33:40best way to negate that would be have a
- 33:41very disciplined offense. Cincinnati has
- 33:43been just that over the past five
- 33:45seasons. So they may hold an edge there
- 33:47on Sunday. Um we're going to look at
- 33:49automatic first downs by penalty. Last
- 33:51season, the Texans ranked in the top
- 33:53three. They're currently ranked in the
- 33:54top three after one week of this season.
- 33:56They're very good at picking up those
- 33:57illegal contact and defensive holding
- 33:59penalties. The past five seasons, the
- 34:01Bengals have ranked in the top five,
- 34:02generating automatic first downs via
- 34:04penalty, primarily via defensive pass
- 34:06interference and defensive holding. So,
- 34:09the way this game is adjudicated on
- 34:11Sunday on the edges, the battle between
- 34:13the wide receivers and the defensive
- 34:14backs will be fascinating and will play
- 34:17a part in the game. Do Hills crew let
- 34:20them play or do they get a little ticky
- 34:21tack? They start calling a lot of little
- 34:23different things. And so there's a huge
- 34:25variance as to which way they approach
- 34:27the game from an officiating standpoint.
- 34:30Both teams have the ability to get those
- 34:32easy yards and automatic first downs via
- 34:34the penalty. Cincinnati have played 10
- 34:36games with Hill in the Joe Burrow era.
- 34:38They're 72 and one in those contests.
- 34:40The one was a tie versus the Eagles in
- 34:422021. Point being, they do have a good
- 34:45record with him in that many games. No
- 34:47referee. they have a better record with.
- 34:49So, there's clearly something there.
- 34:51Maybe it's just coincidence, but there's
- 34:53something there that they excel when
- 34:55Adrien Hills crew is on the game. So,
- 34:58the game itself, to me, it's a coin toss
- 35:00game. I I like both teams. I think they
- 35:03both can make the playoffs, but
- 35:05ultimately only one can probably win
- 35:06unless it's a tie on Sunday. And for
- 35:09that reason, I've got to go with the
- 35:10underdog here. And so, Cincinnati,
- 35:12they're getting the points on Sunday
- 35:14against the Texans. And so that's the
- 35:16only way I can look with this is the
- 35:17Cincinnati Bengals plus the points on
- 35:19Sunday.
- 35:21Okay, so the Jaguars at the Broncos,
- 35:23John Hussy, the referee. Interesting
- 35:25note from week one, Hussy's crew, 74% of
- 35:28their overall penalties were assessed
- 35:29via pre- snap infractions, which led the
- 35:31league. And to put that in perspective,
- 35:33the league average most years is around
- 35:3538%. So they went above and beyond
- 35:37enforcing those pre-nap penalties last
- 35:40week. If that continues this week, uh
- 35:42it's a huge help for Denver, who has one
- 35:44of the best homefield advantages in the
- 35:46league. And the crowd noise, it really
- 35:48creates confusion on the opposing
- 35:50offensive line, and it creates those
- 35:52pre- snap penalties. So, keep that in
- 35:53mind. Uh Hussy himself, a fantastic
- 35:56homefield referee. Here's some numbers
- 35:57from the last decade with him. Home
- 35:59teams against the spread, 9961 and five.
- 36:03So, 62% against the spread with John
- 36:05Hussy. That's the best in the league
- 36:07over that time. and they're one and0
- 36:09straight up and against the spread this
- 36:10year with him. That was the Cincinnati
- 36:11Bengals last week. So, some positive
- 36:14signs there for Denver. What we saw on
- 36:16Monday night was an absolute debacle.
- 36:18Um, I guess the only way is up. And then
- 36:21you combine that with it's their home
- 36:22opener. There will be a focus on getting
- 36:25things right this week and then you have
- 36:27the best homefield referee in the
- 36:29business on the game. So, the
- 36:32overreaction from week one to week two
- 36:34is immense. people get carried away with
- 36:37what they saw in week one and it's
- 36:38almost a leap of faith that teams that
- 36:40were terrible in the opening week that
- 36:43you get back on them the second week but
- 36:45history shows that teams do tend to turn
- 36:47things around and quickly so for that
- 36:50reason all those elements combined the
- 36:52Broncos off a terrible performance at
- 36:54home home opener the best homefield
- 36:57referee and a relatively low number all
- 36:59things considered we're going to go here
- 37:01with the Denver Broncos as a small
- 37:03favorite versus the Jacksonville Jaguars
- 37:05all All right, so the Giants at the
- 37:06Rams, Monday Night Football, Brad Allen,
- 37:08the referee. Home teams over the past
- 37:10decade, 83 60-1 straight up, 59% with
- 37:14Brad Allen. So there's some positives
- 37:15for the Rams right there. Over that same
- 37:17period, those home teams about 52%
- 37:20against the spread. So as far as the
- 37:23game and the way it's going to be
- 37:24officiated, Allen's crew last year
- 37:27averaged the fewest penalties per game.
- 37:28Now fast forward to this year, week one,
- 37:30they averaged the most penalties, 22.
- 37:33So, you're going to see them make a
- 37:34concerted effort to really reduce that,
- 37:36which may help the Giants in theory. Uh,
- 37:39the Rams are one of the most disciplined
- 37:40teams, so they'll be fine. The issue
- 37:42last week for the Giants versus the
- 37:44Cowboys was the defensive secondary.
- 37:46They surrendered five automatic first
- 37:48downs by penalty, primarily by defensive
- 37:50pass interference. And so, that looms as
- 37:53a potential problem on Monday night.
- 37:55You've got Puka and you got Devonte
- 37:58Adams. Puker in particular is very good
- 37:59at fighting through the ball and getting
- 38:02those calls. if he doesn't actually get
- 38:03the catch itself. So, Giants need to be
- 38:06mindful of that. Um, get the pressure up
- 38:09front. Don't give Sappa time to really
- 38:10launch those things downfield. Um, the
- 38:13Giants, I was really impressed with them
- 38:15last week. I said the big three, Cam
- 38:17Scatteraboo, Jackson Dot, Malik
- 38:19Neighbors. My concern was how many games
- 38:21that they played together. Well, as it
- 38:22turns out, they got through that one
- 38:24unscathed and they're going to be there
- 38:25on Monday night versus a Rams team that
- 38:28look, they came in as the Super Bowl
- 38:30favorites and that was built off the
- 38:33fact that they're going to have Miles
- 38:34Garrett, Aaron Donald. Well, Miles
- 38:36Garrett's out and I'm not sure what the
- 38:38deal is with Aaron Donald. Is he
- 38:40playing? Is he not playing? The point is
- 38:42the Giants are not facing that team that
- 38:44everybody had circled as a Super Bowl
- 38:46team this season. So, they catch a break
- 38:48here in that regard. John Harour himself
- 38:51has a pretty good head-to-head record
- 38:53with Shawn McVey. Obviously, that was
- 38:55with Baltimore and Lamar, but there are
- 38:56sim some some similarities here with the
- 38:58Giants. You've got that physical running
- 39:00game that can control the line of
- 39:02scrimmage and control the clock. So,
- 39:06look, I like the Rams. I still think
- 39:07they're going to make the playoffs, but
- 39:08it's going to be a lot more choppy than
- 39:10people initially expected when the
- 39:12season began. So, for that reason, I
- 39:14like the Giants here getting a big
- 39:16number on Monday Night Football against
- 39:18the LA Rams.
- 39:20>> All right, that was some outstanding
- 39:21information from Joe as usual. I'm
- 39:24looking forward to hearing from him all
- 39:26season long. Let's keep it rolling.
- 39:28Before we get into my best bet of the
- 39:30week, a quick shout out to our partners
- 39:31over at Odds Jam. If you're betting this
- 39:34season, getting the best number on every
- 39:36bet matters. You see their odds screen
- 39:38on every single one of the shows. I pull
- 39:40it up. Odds Jam screen shows you
- 39:42realtime lines at every sports book so
- 39:45you can lock in all of your bets at the
- 39:47best possible value. I use this tool
- 39:50every day and shopping for the best line
- 39:52will save you money over the course of
- 39:53the season. If you want to test out
- 39:55OddsJam, click the link in the
- 39:57description below and use code warren to
- 40:00get a free week trial. And if you stay
- 40:02on board, that code will get you 40% off
- 40:06your first month. Now, let's get to my
- 40:08best bet of the week. All right, guys.
- 40:10Now it is time for my best bet of the
- 40:13week. It's a great feeling to start out
- 40:15the season with a win like we did last
- 40:17week. But last week's in the rearview
- 40:19mirror. Let's focus on the future. But
- 40:21before we do, it's hard not to mention
- 40:22we're 37 and 13 lifetime on these
- 40:26podcast best bets. Outstanding track
- 40:29record. I hope to keep it going here in
- 40:32week two. And for that, I'm going to
- 40:33turn to my odds jam screen, and we're
- 40:36going to go to Bucky Irving, the running
- 40:39back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This
- 40:41line is a solid 58 and a half at
- 40:44virtually every single book that's out
- 40:46there with a line, and we are going over
- 40:5058 for Bucky Irving rushing yards
- 40:54against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday
- 40:57afternoon. I've got a variety of reasons
- 40:59why I like Bucky Irving to have 60 plus
- 41:02rushing yards in this game. Let's first
- 41:05start with the fact that this
- 41:06interesting nugget that I dug up about
- 41:09teams playing back-to-back road games in
- 41:12Florida to start the season. May not
- 41:14hear this from anywhere else. Did the
- 41:16research last night interesting factoid
- 41:18here. We know that the Cleveland Browns
- 41:20just played down in Jacksonville last
- 41:22week. That was in Florida. And Cleveland
- 41:24is obviously not from Florida. They're
- 41:25from Cleveland, Ohio. where it's not
- 41:28nearly the temperature and humidity like
- 41:31it is down in Jacksonville. Now they
- 41:33have to go back and go even further
- 41:35south to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- 41:38This is the first time in my database
- 41:40that goes back to 1990 that a team has
- 41:43gone back-to back road games weeks one
- 41:47and two of the season in Florida. I
- 41:50think that matters. I think it's
- 41:51difficult to acclimate yourself to that
- 41:54weather. I think it wears you down and I
- 41:57think it's going to cause problems for
- 41:59them. We'll talk about some of their
- 42:00missed tackles. But one of the
- 42:02interesting other facts here is related
- 42:04to how often has that happened even in
- 42:07the first seven weeks of the season
- 42:09where a team that's not from Florida has
- 42:11had to go to Florida twice in two weeks,
- 42:14two straight games. It's only happened
- 42:16four times since 1990. So super rare
- 42:20that in the first seven weeks of the
- 42:22season, forget the first two, the first
- 42:24seven, a team goes back to back in
- 42:26Florida, those four teams 0 and4
- 42:28straight up 0 and4 against the spread.
- 42:31And the biggest stat here that factors
- 42:34into this game in my opinion, I know
- 42:35it's a super small sample size, guys,
- 42:37they've allowed 190 rushing yards per
- 42:40game in that second meeting, second trip
- 42:43to Florida, 190 rushing yards per game.
- 42:46We they saw games of 248 rushing yards
- 42:49allowed. 223, 166, and 123 rushing
- 42:53yards. They're allowing 5.1 yards per
- 42:56rush in those games. And all those teams
- 42:58were short underdogs of between two and
- 43:00a half and four and a half points. Not
- 43:03like what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are
- 43:05laying points to the Cleveland Browns in
- 43:07this game. Cleveland just allowed last
- 43:11week in Jacksonville who and I don't
- 43:14think those two running backs are super
- 43:16dynamic or elite. You got Chris
- 43:18Rodriguez, you got Bashalt Tutin. I I
- 43:20think Bucky Irving is better than both
- 43:22of them and Buckyy's actually healthy
- 43:24right now. Um they allowed 4.32 yards
- 43:28after contact per rush to Jacksonville
- 43:31Jaguars running backs last week. They
- 43:33allowed 121 rushing yards overall at 4.8
- 43:368 yards per carry to Jacksonville
- 43:38Jaguars rushing backs last week. Bucky
- 43:41Irving played 62% of the snaps last
- 43:44week. The issue for Bucky Irving and why
- 43:46he only had less why he had less than 50
- 43:49rushing yards is Tampa goes down 14-3
- 43:53thanks in part due to Baker Mayfield and
- 43:56other fumbles, right? They go down 14-3
- 43:59with two minutes in the first quarter
- 44:00remaining. They're down 21-3 midway
- 44:04through the second quarter. This is not
- 44:06the situation that you can run the
- 44:08football. This is not a run first
- 44:09opportunity for you in that first half
- 44:12because of the way that the game was be
- 44:14playing out. Bucky Irving had just five
- 44:17rushes. That's that's nothing. Five
- 44:20rushes. You know how many yards he still
- 44:21gained? 31. 31. And it wasn't just one
- 44:25run for like 25 yards. He had three runs
- 44:28that gained at least nine yards. He
- 44:31averaged 6.2 yards per carry. They just
- 44:33couldn't run the football enough because
- 44:36they were losing so badly that they had
- 44:39to pass the ball a bit more and they
- 44:41kept turning the ball over as well. Due
- 44:44to the score, Tampa Bay had only six
- 44:46running back runs in the second half. Um
- 44:49Gainwell got some run in the second half
- 44:52because of the game state because it was
- 44:53sort of like a pass play where Gainwell
- 44:56would be more likely to be in there, but
- 44:57they're calling a run check into a run
- 44:59or it's a run play that just better
- 45:01suited Gainwell. Gainwell averaged three
- 45:04yards a carry on those runs. Bucky
- 45:06Irving was at 5.6 on those second half
- 45:08runs. I just don't think that Gainwell
- 45:11is a legitimate threat to Bucky Irving.
- 45:14Um, I think Irving had just eight rushes
- 45:18in the entire game.
- 45:20There's no way Todd Bulls allows that to
- 45:23happen in this game against the
- 45:24Cleveland Browns.
- 45:27Todd BS is going to come out here,
- 45:29especially the way Baker was running
- 45:30around, fumbling the football, having it
- 45:33strip sacked, all this nonsense, and
- 45:35he's going to say, "We're running the
- 45:37football with Bucky Irving, and we're
- 45:39going to have success against this
- 45:40defense that just was gashed for 121
- 45:43rushing yards last week at 4.8 yards per
- 45:46carry.
- 45:47Bucky doesn't even need to get half of
- 45:49the 121 rushing yards, right? like he he
- 45:52is still going to eclipse this number uh
- 45:55with slightly less than half of that and
- 45:57he's obviously going to get way more
- 45:58than half of the rushing attempts here
- 46:00for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think
- 46:02their game state is going to be better.
- 46:04I think their head coach being defensive
- 46:06minded top BS is going to lean into the
- 46:08run a little bit more and I think Bucky
- 46:11offers bigger upside and the potential
- 46:13to break explosive runs uh better than
- 46:16BEA Tutin or Chris Rodriguez. So, I just
- 46:18think that Bucky Irving is in a great
- 46:20spot here. Um, like last week, I told
- 46:23you that I had a lot of props that I
- 46:25like, and I'm always going to be direct
- 46:27with you guys in terms of how I'm
- 46:29feeling about certain things.
- 46:32I don't love the fact that the time I'm
- 46:34recording this show, I don't have
- 46:36markets right now for props for longest
- 46:39rushes or longest catches or things of
- 46:43that nature. Those just aren't lined
- 46:44right now. And we'll have to see if I
- 46:46need to adjust when I'm recording this
- 46:47show to accommodate our ability to use
- 46:51more of those types of props on the best
- 46:54bet segment. But I go through my list
- 46:57and I like compile all the games and the
- 46:59data and the analysis and come up with
- 47:01my list of props that I like. I told you
- 47:03last week that there were a number of
- 47:05props that I really liked at the top I
- 47:07felt strongly about and I went with the
- 47:09Kenneth Walker receptions. We ended up
- 47:12going seven and one with my strongest
- 47:15props last week, those elevated props
- 47:17that we gave out. Seven and one for
- 47:20subs. I feel very strongly about the the
- 47:23props that we've got this week at the
- 47:24top. The ones that I feel very strongly
- 47:26about, I'm selecting the Bucky Irving,
- 47:28but there's a lot that I'm leaving out
- 47:31there. some numbers that I just don't
- 47:33understand. Some unders that I'm looking
- 47:35at that I just I just don't understand
- 47:38how they could possibly line these guys
- 47:40at those numbers. We're going to be
- 47:42giving those out to subs uh as well. So,
- 47:45I feel good about the card this week,
- 47:46but for the purpose of the best bet,
- 47:48we're going with Bucky Irving rushing
- 47:50yards over 58 and a half. Let's try to
- 47:53improve to 2 and 0 on the season. 38 and
- 47:5613 lifetime. And that'll do it for our
- 47:59week 2 Sharp Football Analysis show.
- 48:02Make sure that you guys are subscribed
- 48:04so you never miss an episode. This is
- 48:06the fastest growing betting show on the
- 48:08planet. Good luck in all your bets and
- 48:10we'll see you next
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