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(37-13, 74%) NFL Week 2 Best Bets & Player Props 2026 — Transcript

by Warren Sharp · 9,413 words · 1,317 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00I'm Warren Sharp of Sharp Football
  2. 0:02Analysis and I'm pretty sure that this
  3. 0:03has become your favorite new sports
  4. 0:06betting podcast and that's because we
  5. 0:08continue to deliver successful bets and
  6. 0:12successful information and hopefully you
  7. 0:15guys love both of those aspects of this
  8. 0:17show. Today we're going to preview week
  9. 0:19two of the NFL season, week three of the
  10. 0:22college football season with a team of
  11. 0:24experts that I have assembled that are
  12. 0:26going to deliver best bets to you all
  13. 0:29show long. We're going to hit LSU versus
  14. 0:32Old Miss, the Bengals versus the Texans,
  15. 0:35the Jaguars at the Broncos, the Saints
  16. 0:37at the Ravens, the Browns at the Bucks,
  17. 0:40and the Monday Night Football game
  18. 0:42between the Giants and the Rams. And of
  19. 0:45course, what a lot of you guys come here
  20. 0:47for, the best bet of the week. I'm 37
  21. 0:50and 13 lifetime. That's 74% on podcast
  22. 0:54best bets after going 1 and0 last week
  23. 0:57and 14 and four the year before. And
  24. 1:00I'll be sharing another best bet during
  25. 1:02the show. So sit back, grab your
  26. 1:04notepad, and let's start breaking down
  27. 1:06these games.
  28. 1:10Before we get into all of our best bets,
  29. 1:13I'm going to hit on a number of things
  30. 1:14that I noticed from last weekend's games
  31. 1:17that you need to be aware of heading
  32. 1:18into this weekend's games and how it's
  33. 1:20going to relate. And the first one we're
  34. 1:22going to talk about is Houston's
  35. 1:24revamped offense potentially lowering
  36. 1:26opponent play volume. Now, we have a big
  37. 1:30concern, of course, in this game whether
  38. 1:32or not Nico Collins will be active. So,
  39. 1:34make sure that you're paying attention
  40. 1:35to that because it's definitely going to
  41. 1:37impact the outcome of this game. But we
  42. 1:41know that Nico Collins will make a
  43. 1:44massive impact whether he's here or not.
  44. 1:46The key question will be the sheer
  45. 1:49number of plays that we're going to get
  46. 1:52out of the Houston Texans offense if
  47. 1:53Nico Collins is here. The number of
  48. 1:56plays the Bills defense was on the field
  49. 1:58for in week one was nearly identical to
  50. 2:01the number of plays that the Detroit
  51. 2:03Lions defense was on the field for. And
  52. 2:05they played an overtime game last week.
  53. 2:08And I just want to say before we get
  54. 2:11deeper into the show, if you're betting
  55. 2:13the NFL this season, you need to hit
  56. 2:15that subscribe button right now. Not
  57. 2:16only do we give you picks, we also give
  58. 2:19you the information behind the best bets
  59. 2:22that we like. And I think that's going
  60. 2:24to help you breaking down the matchups,
  61. 2:26the trends, the officiating crews, all
  62. 2:28of the data. And if that's the analysis
  63. 2:29you want to get, make sure that you're
  64. 2:31subscribed. But as you keep going
  65. 2:33through here, um the Bills were scoring
  66. 2:35on explosive plays. Yes. So that meant
  67. 2:38that the Houston Texans were going to
  68. 2:40have more opportunities to possess the
  69. 2:42football. But let's look at their
  70. 2:44intent, which is the key thing here as
  71. 2:46it translates to their game against the
  72. 2:48Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. In the
  73. 2:51first half versus the Bills last week,
  74. 2:53the Texans passed the ball only 51% of
  75. 2:56snaps. That was number four lowest of
  76. 2:59any team last week. In the first half,
  77. 3:02they took 34 seconds for the play clock
  78. 3:05between snaps. That was the number five
  79. 3:08longest time to snap. The only other
  80. 3:11team in the NFL last week that went
  81. 3:14slower with a similar rate of running
  82. 3:16the football was the New York Jets. That
  83. 3:19was it. Houston also gained a new set of
  84. 3:22downs or scored a touchdown 78% of its
  85. 3:26series, up from 68% in 2025. It ran 73
  86. 3:32plays last game, which was second most
  87. 3:34in the NFL. And they've scored 30 plus
  88. 3:37points in four of their last seven
  89. 3:38games. So, this is something that the
  90. 3:41Houston Texans offense is morphing into
  91. 3:43a little bit more running, but the
  92. 3:44ability to keep you out on the field and
  93. 3:46wear you down. and we'll see if Nico's
  94. 3:49up and if that has an impact on the game
  95. 3:52this weekend between the Cincinnati
  96. 3:54Bengals and the Houston Texans. But
  97. 3:56definitely something to pay attention to
  98. 3:58in the future for the way that the
  99. 3:59Houston Texans are going to play offense
  100. 4:01this year. All right, next up I want to
  101. 4:03talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  102. 4:05defense. Tampa's off of a loss and
  103. 4:07they're going up against the Cleveland
  104. 4:08Browns who are also off of a loss. Now
  105. 4:10look, I know that Deshun Watson was
  106. 4:13terrible. He is terrible. He's probably
  107. 4:15going to be terrible in this game, but
  108. 4:17the key in this game is he's going to be
  109. 4:19blitzed a lot and that's going to just
  110. 4:21reveal the warts even more when that
  111. 4:24happens. Todd BS dials up pressure at
  112. 4:26one of the highest rates in the NFL and
  113. 4:28I think he's going to have success
  114. 4:30getting after Deshun Watson because
  115. 4:32Deshun Watson holds the ball a ton.
  116. 4:34Let's break down some of these numbers
  117. 4:35here. Watson averaged 3.2 seconds to
  118. 4:39throw, which was fifth longest of any
  119. 4:42quarterback in the NFL last week. This
  120. 4:44is not a bug. This is a feature of
  121. 4:47Deshun Watson's game. He never had a
  122. 4:50quick time to throw. Even in his first
  123. 4:53years, rookie year, second year down in
  124. 4:55Houston. He holds on to the football and
  125. 4:59creates bigger plays, moves about the
  126. 5:00pocket, tries to go for some long longer
  127. 5:03plays down the field or ultimately then
  128. 5:05scrambles with the football. The thing
  129. 5:07though is he's not the same as he once
  130. 5:09was when he was younger and could move
  131. 5:11faster within the pocket, looked deeper
  132. 5:14down the field, and didn't care as much
  133. 5:17as it seems like he does now. He's not
  134. 5:20caring at all. He's keep bearing his
  135. 5:22head. He wants to avoid being sacked,
  136. 5:24but he's taking these hits in the
  137. 5:26pocket. He's fumbling the football, and
  138. 5:28I think it's going to be a disaster. He
  139. 5:30had a league high 19% sack rate last
  140. 5:34week's game against the Jacksonville
  141. 5:35Jaguars. That was the fourth straight
  142. 5:38start for Deshun Watson with a
  143. 5:40double-digit sack rate. Tampa Blitz last
  144. 5:44week at the second highest rate of any
  145. 5:46defense in the NFL 46% of the time. I
  146. 5:51think they're going to have a lot more
  147. 5:52success getting pressure in this game.
  148. 5:55If you're thinking about, oh, Tampa
  149. 5:56blitzed a lot, but it really didn't work
  150. 5:58last week against Joe Burrow, so maybe
  151. 6:00it's not going to work here. Maybe
  152. 6:01they'll dial it back. I encourage you to
  153. 6:04think again because they went up against
  154. 6:06Joe Burrow, who got the ball out in 2.43
  155. 6:09seconds time to throw, which was the
  156. 6:11fourth fastest. And as I mentioned,
  157. 6:15we know that the pass time to throw from
  158. 6:18Deshun Watson is a feature, not a bug.
  159. 6:22He holds on to the ball a long time. Uh
  160. 6:25in Cleveland, every single year that
  161. 6:26he's been there, he's averaging between
  162. 6:282.85 seconds and 3.3 seconds time to
  163. 6:32throw. Here's the last kicker on this
  164. 6:34game for me. The last three years,
  165. 6:37obviously, he didn't play one of them,
  166. 6:39but he's played three years in Cleveland
  167. 6:41here. The last three years, he has only
  168. 6:44played one game versus a defense that
  169. 6:46blitzed him over 32% of dropbacks. In
  170. 6:49that game, he completed just 57% of
  171. 6:52passes for 5.3 yards per attempt while
  172. 6:55taking eight sacks, recording one
  173. 6:57fumble. And that was the New York Giants
  174. 6:59defense in 2024. We're not talking about
  175. 7:01some sort of juggernaut like to 20,000
  176. 7:04Ravens or the 85 Bears. Like, we're
  177. 7:06talking about the 2024 New York Giants.
  178. 7:09They're the only team that blitz them a
  179. 7:10lot and they've recorded eight sacks.
  180. 7:12That was a 32% blitz rate. We're now
  181. 7:15talking about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  182. 7:17that blitz last week at a 46% blitz
  183. 7:20rate. Last week against the Jacksonville
  184. 7:21Jaguars, Deshawn Watson was hit nine
  185. 7:24times, took five sacks. His quarterback
  186. 7:27EPA falls off drastically when he is
  187. 7:30under pressure. And also, he's terrible
  188. 7:34against main coverage. Five dropbacks
  189. 7:36versus man coverage. Last week he
  190. 7:38averaged negative -1.1
  191. 7:40EPA per drop back. Took three sacks and
  192. 7:43had only one completion on five total
  193. 7:46dropbacks. It's hard to average over a
  194. 7:49point lost on every single dropback
  195. 7:51because dropbacks are what's supposed to
  196. 7:53earn points more than rushes. And he's
  197. 7:55losing points just dropping back against
  198. 7:58man coverage. This is what Todd BS likes
  199. 8:00to do and blitz and apply pressure. I
  200. 8:03think it, you know, Deshun Watson is
  201. 8:05going to absolutely struggle in this
  202. 8:07game and, you know, this is going to be
  203. 8:09a fun game for Ruben Bane to record his
  204. 8:12first NFL sack potentially. It's going
  205. 8:14to be a fun game for Tampa Bay
  206. 8:16Buccaneers to get back on track
  207. 8:17offensively because they're going to
  208. 8:19have opportunities because I don't think
  209. 8:21the Cleveland Browns are going to be
  210. 8:22able to sustain drives with the way that
  211. 8:25Deshun Watson is going to play football
  212. 8:27against the man coverage and against the
  213. 8:28blitzes that Todd Bulls is going to
  214. 8:30throw at him. Last quick topic here to
  215. 8:33get into before we start breaking down
  216. 8:34the games is what is going on in
  217. 8:37Philadelphia. This Eagles offense
  218. 8:39failure to take flight. We saw it last
  219. 8:42week even though they won their game.
  220. 8:45The Eagles averaged 1.6
  221. 8:48yards per play on first down. That was a
  222. 8:52league low. That was the worst rate in
  223. 8:54the NFL. As a result of being so
  224. 8:56inefficient on first downs, they faced
  225. 8:59third downs 70% of their sets of downs,
  226. 9:04which was the worst in the NFL. For
  227. 9:07comparison, they're at 70%. The league
  228. 9:11average was 44%.
  229. 9:14We're not even talking about the best
  230. 9:15teams. We're talking about the league
  231. 9:16average 44%. You're way down here at 70%
  232. 9:20of the time. That means like seven out
  233. 9:23of ten times that you have a first down,
  234. 9:25you're going to end up in third down.
  235. 9:27That's horrible. And that was against
  236. 9:29the Washington Commanders defense. I
  237. 9:31know they're improved, but there's no
  238. 9:33excuse for that for the Philadelphia
  239. 9:36Eagles. Now they're going to be down
  240. 9:38Landon Dickerson, one of their key
  241. 9:39offensive linemen they're going to have
  242. 9:41to replace. I know he was struggling in
  243. 9:43the game last week, so you know, he
  244. 9:45wasn't at 100% anyways, but that's going
  245. 9:48to be something that they're going to
  246. 9:49have to overcome.
  247. 9:51We also thought with Shawn Manu calling
  248. 9:53plays, we were going to get Jaylen Herz
  249. 9:55under center and doing a lot of
  250. 9:56different things. Jaylen Herz was only
  251. 9:59under center for 34% of his draw of his
  252. 10:02snaps in total. But most of the time
  253. 10:04that they were going under center, it
  254. 10:06was just to run the football. He had
  255. 10:09only uh five under center dropbacks the
  256. 10:13entire game. They used play action just
  257. 10:158% of the time. That was the lowest rate
  258. 10:18of any team in the NFL. And it's not as
  259. 10:21if they were losing this game and so
  260. 10:24they had to abandon that and go to some
  261. 10:26sort of quick shotgun game. They were
  262. 10:27leading this game and sometimes by
  263. 10:29larger margins and yet they're still not
  264. 10:31going under center. They're still not
  265. 10:33calling play action. It's kind of
  266. 10:36disappointing at this point for us not
  267. 10:39to see a little bit more creativity,
  268. 10:41especially just with what happened to
  269. 10:43that offense last year and the reason
  270. 10:45why they had to get rid of their prior
  271. 10:47offensive coordinator because it was
  272. 10:48just so terrible. We thought we were
  273. 10:50going to get a lot more innovation
  274. 10:51potentially here. We did not see that in
  275. 10:54week one and it caused them to struggle
  276. 10:56and it caused them to punt the football
  277. 10:58back too often to the commanders without
  278. 11:00scoring points. They were scoring points
  279. 11:02on explosives. without those explosives,
  280. 11:04they were struggling with the
  281. 11:06consistency offensively and it gave the
  282. 11:08Commanders opportunities. You know, if
  283. 11:10Stefon Diggs doesn't jump on the goal
  284. 11:12post and hug it, uh then we're kicking
  285. 11:15an extra point. This game is probably
  286. 11:17tied going to overtime potentially.
  287. 11:19Instead, the Philadelphia Eagles are
  288. 11:21lucky to win this game by two points
  289. 11:24thanks to their defense playing
  290. 11:26outstanding football. And that's what's
  291. 11:28going to have to happen when this team
  292. 11:29goes on the road in Tennessee. This
  293. 11:32defense has to play lights out because
  294. 11:34I'm still worried a little bit about
  295. 11:36what this offense is going to bring to
  296. 11:38the table. All right, now let's welcome
  297. 11:39in our college football betting expert,
  298. 11:41Ryan Mcrist. We're going to talk about
  299. 11:44the LSU versus Old Miss game with Ryan.
  300. 11:46Ryan's got a take and a betting
  301. 11:48prediction on the outcome of this game.
  302. 11:50And I can't wait to watch this game. We
  303. 11:52got Lane Keifin going back to Old Miss.
  304. 11:55The former coach returns. He's been
  305. 11:57playing that villain role. Let's see if
  306. 11:59he can spoil things for Old Miss on
  307. 12:02their home turf on Saturday night. Let's
  308. 12:05kick it to Ryan.
  309. 12:06>> All right, week two's game of the week,
  310. 12:08LSU at Old Miss. I was all set to take
  311. 12:11LSU in this matchup and then on
  312. 12:12Wednesday, we found out that quarterback
  313. 12:14Sam Levit is listed as doubtful, which
  314. 12:16really threw a wrench into things. If he
  315. 12:17doesn't play, that's a huge advantage
  316. 12:20for Miss. If LSU has to throw an
  317. 12:22inexperienced quarterback out there into
  318. 12:24an extremely hostile environment with
  319. 12:26Lane Kein's return to Miss in that
  320. 12:29environment for a first-time starter,
  321. 12:31that's a bad situation, especially with
  322. 12:32a very experienced quarterback, Heisman
  323. 12:35contender, Trinidad Chamblas on the
  324. 12:37other side. If it comes if it if we
  325. 12:39eventually find out that Levit's not
  326. 12:41going to play, that would certainly seem
  327. 12:42to give an edge to miss. However,
  328. 12:46I'm not assuming that Levit isn't going
  329. 12:47to play yet. This is Lane Kein after
  330. 12:50all. And no coach currently in college
  331. 12:53football, maybe in the history of
  332. 12:54college football, has ever more brazenly
  333. 12:58abused the rule book. If he thinks there
  334. 13:00is the tiniest little gray area where he
  335. 13:02can wedge in there and gain an
  336. 13:04advantage, he will do it. And it's
  337. 13:06pretty easy to apply that logic to this
  338. 13:08situation. Listing Sam Leva as doubtful
  339. 13:11does not mean he won't play. It means
  340. 13:14that he has a 25% chance of playing.
  341. 13:17Now, if Gifin went through the whole
  342. 13:18season and just kept listing starters as
  343. 13:20doubtful, if Levit were doubtful every
  344. 13:21week and he kept playing, I'm sure Miss
  345. 13:23would get in trouble. But if he picks a
  346. 13:26spot in a big game against Miss where he
  347. 13:28decides to list a starting quarterback
  348. 13:30is doubtful just to play mind games with
  349. 13:32the other side and it turns out Levit
  350. 13:34plays, it's going to be pretty hard to
  351. 13:37prove that Levit wasn't hurt, wasn't
  352. 13:39dealing with some sort of injury,
  353. 13:40especially since he was coming off a
  354. 13:42season ending injury a year ago and is
  355. 13:44probably still recovering from that to
  356. 13:46some degree. It would be really hard to
  357. 13:49prove that he's not, right? if this is
  358. 13:51just a one-off thing or something that
  359. 13:52he does once or twice. It seems like an
  360. 13:55obvious evolution of Lane Kein always
  361. 13:57trying to gain an edge, especially in
  362. 13:59this matchup. Because the other reason
  363. 14:01why I think that Lane Keifin is probably
  364. 14:03playing with the rules loosely here is
  365. 14:05that earlier this week, Miss served
  366. 14:08Princeuel Oman, LSU's best pass rusher
  367. 14:11in a transfer from Miss with court
  368. 14:13papers because they're trying to get
  369. 14:15some money back from some of the guys
  370. 14:17who transferred from Miss and followed
  371. 14:19Lane Kein to LSU. Why would they serve
  372. 14:22him court papers this week? Seems pretty
  373. 14:24obvious, right? They're trying to get
  374. 14:25inside of his head and play mind games
  375. 14:27with him. and the culture of Lane Kein
  376. 14:30trying to bend the rules. He absolutely
  377. 14:31left that behind at Old Miss. Pete
  378. 14:33Golding has been doing all the same
  379. 14:34thing. Tampering with players before
  380. 14:36they're in the portal, tampering with
  381. 14:38players after they've already
  382. 14:39transferred to another program. Golding
  383. 14:42is up to the same tricks that we would
  384. 14:43expect from Kein. I think this was Kein
  385. 14:46punching back. It's just a theory. We'll
  386. 14:49find out on Saturday if he actually
  387. 14:50plays. I think the fact that the line
  388. 14:52has barely shifted. It shifted. LSU was
  389. 14:55favored by a field goal, you know, about
  390. 14:5724 hours. Since we've we've heard of
  391. 14:59that, it had shifted to, you know, just
  392. 15:01two minus two and a half. It seems like
  393. 15:04most people are at least thinking along
  394. 15:06the same lines as me that this it's
  395. 15:08tough to trust Lane Kein. Any other
  396. 15:10coach in the country says their
  397. 15:11quarterback is doubtful. It means his
  398. 15:12quarterback is hurt. But with Kein, I
  399. 15:14don't know that we can really say that.
  400. 15:16Now, I wanted to address something else
  401. 15:18about the princel Mellan issue because
  402. 15:21that was actually initially one of the
  403. 15:23reasons why I started to like LSU more
  404. 15:25was after Miss serves him with those
  405. 15:27papers because LSU's roster is filled
  406. 15:29with transfers. Now, on Miss's side,
  407. 15:32this is a huge game from them. A lot of
  408. 15:33those players are holdovers. Kein left
  409. 15:36them before the playoffs. They're bitter
  410. 15:38about it. We obviously know how the fans
  411. 15:40feel about it. So, it will be in a tough
  412. 15:41environment at Miss. But do LSU players,
  413. 15:45all these transfers really care about
  414. 15:47this LSU Miss game? They're not here for
  415. 15:49Kein. They don't really have Kein's
  416. 15:51back. They're here for the paycheck. And
  417. 15:53Kein Kein happens to be the head coach
  418. 15:55who's helping get them paid. But most of
  419. 15:58them, especially guys on the defensive
  420. 15:59side of the ball, have probably talked
  421. 16:00to Kein once or twice maybe other than
  422. 16:02when he's, you know, up in front of the
  423. 16:03whole team talking. They don't know
  424. 16:05Kein. They're not they're not amped up
  425. 16:07for this game to like help Kein get back
  426. 16:10at all miss for whatever reason Kein
  427. 16:13might have to want to get back at them.
  428. 16:14It's unclear exactly. He's the one that
  429. 16:16left them. So I I don't really see LSU
  430. 16:19getting up for this game. So initially
  431. 16:21in the offseason when I looked at this
  432. 16:22game I thought you know what this looks
  433. 16:23like even though I think LSU is the
  434. 16:25better team I thought Miss I would
  435. 16:27probably pick Miss when this game rolled
  436. 16:28around. This was one of the reasons that
  437. 16:31started tipping me towards LSU because
  438. 16:33those players don't know Kein, but they
  439. 16:35know Prince William Ellen, one of their
  440. 16:37best defensive players. So, some of
  441. 16:39those transfers on the defensive side of
  442. 16:41the ball that might not really see this
  443. 16:43as a rivalry or a big game other than
  444. 16:45just another good SEC game. They do care
  445. 16:48about their teammate and he's going to
  446. 16:50be pissed off about getting served those
  447. 16:51court papers this week. They're going to
  448. 16:53be extra fired up for this game. Well,
  449. 16:54Miss basically gave LSU's players a
  450. 16:57reason to treat this as a bigger than
  451. 16:59usual game the same way a lot of Miss's
  452. 17:01players were already viewing it. So, I
  453. 17:03think it almost like leveled the playing
  454. 17:05field from a motivation standpoint,
  455. 17:07which in college football sometimes
  456. 17:09matters a lot. A lot of big upsets
  457. 17:11happen when it feels like the Super Bowl
  458. 17:13for one team and for the other side is
  459. 17:15just sort of another game. I thought
  460. 17:17that that might be where we were at with
  461. 17:19this game, but I think that this back
  462. 17:20and forth has sort of leveled the
  463. 17:22playing field where both sides are
  464. 17:24coming into this game feeling like it's
  465. 17:25a huge matchup. Now, let's get into some
  466. 17:28of the ex's nos's a little bit and more
  467. 17:29than just the drama off the field.
  468. 17:31There's two big reasons why looking at
  469. 17:33the matchup and what we've seen early
  470. 17:35this season, I like LSU. The first is
  471. 17:37Miss's defense. I've got big questions.
  472. 17:40Like we said, they lost a few transfers
  473. 17:41who followed Kein, most notably Oman.
  474. 17:44their best pass rusher is now on the
  475. 17:45other side of the field. Miss in that
  476. 17:48first game of the year, they struggled a
  477. 17:49little bit against Louisville. Gave up
  478. 17:516.9 yards per play. I wasn't too
  479. 17:53concerned initially because it looks
  480. 17:55like Louisville found a good quarterback
  481. 17:56and Lincoln Keen Holtz, you know, he's
  482. 17:58he was a playmaker for them. It seems
  483. 18:00like Louisville has a good offense. But
  484. 18:02then last week against Charlotte who
  485. 18:04went 1 and 11 last year and opened the
  486. 18:06season losing to the Citadel, an FCS
  487. 18:09program, they allowed 5.3 yards per
  488. 18:12play. Now, the final score wasn't close.
  489. 18:14Miss was never in trouble in that game,
  490. 18:17but Miss's defense did not step up and
  491. 18:20dominate the way you would expect them
  492. 18:22to dominate one of the worst FBS
  493. 18:23programs. And that's a major red flag,
  494. 18:26especially when you factor in how they
  495. 18:27looked against Louisville. So, I have
  496. 18:29some serious questions. And we also,
  497. 18:31especially if Levit plays, we know what
  498. 18:33LSU's offense is capable of. Keifin is
  499. 18:35going to be able to exploit the
  500. 18:36weaknesses in that defense. At the very
  501. 18:39least, it's going to be a high-scoring
  502. 18:40game because I don't see any reason why
  503. 18:42Miss's defense the way they've looked
  504. 18:44can slow down what we've seen from LSU.
  505. 18:47Now, the other issue is when LSU is on
  506. 18:49offense. Obviously, they're going to
  507. 18:50make plays. Trinidad Chamblas, he's a
  508. 18:52legitimate Heisman contender. He's going
  509. 18:53to put up some points, but I worry about
  510. 18:55the offensive line, especially in the
  511. 18:57run game against LSU's defense. Miss was
  512. 19:00breaking in two new starters at both
  513. 19:01tackle positions. And then in the season
  514. 19:03opener, they lost their right tackle. So
  515. 19:05now they've got an inexperienced right
  516. 19:07tackle out there as well. You know,
  517. 19:09there's a chance their their initial
  518. 19:11starter is going to be back for this
  519. 19:12game, but you know, he's on the injury
  520. 19:14report. If he does play, he's going to
  521. 19:15be less than 100%. It's a bad situation
  522. 19:17going up against a good LSU defense
  523. 19:20here. You know, this was one of the area
  524. 19:22the run game specifically was one of the
  525. 19:23areas where LSU was actually already
  526. 19:25pretty good last season, even though
  527. 19:27they had some issues on defense based on
  528. 19:29opponent adjusted numbers. LSU ranked
  529. 19:32fifth in the nation in yards allowed
  530. 19:34before contact. So, they were already
  531. 19:35excelling at getting to the line of
  532. 19:37scrimmage, getting into the back field,
  533. 19:39and we've seen them just pick up right
  534. 19:41where they left off. They've been
  535. 19:42absolutely dominant through two games
  536. 19:43this year. They're allowing 0.2 yards
  537. 19:46before contact per attempt to running
  538. 19:49backs and they're contacting opposing
  539. 19:51running backs behind the line of
  540. 19:52scrimmage 66% of the time. Now, they had
  541. 19:55an easy game last week, but you know,
  542. 19:57they did play Clemson in week one.
  543. 19:59Clemson is not a good, you know, a good
  544. 20:01power five team, but they are they are a
  545. 20:03power conference opponent who can run
  546. 20:04the ball a little bit. I I think this
  547. 20:07LSU defense is going to be really nasty,
  548. 20:09especially against the run with LSU
  549. 20:10having some inexperience and some
  550. 20:12injuries on the offensive line. I think
  551. 20:13that's a bad situation. I think it's
  552. 20:15really going to put the whole offense on
  553. 20:17Chambless's back and I just don't know
  554. 20:19if he's got the weapons surrounding him
  555. 20:21in the way that LSU does. So, if Sam Lev
  556. 20:24plays, I think LSU can dominate this
  557. 20:26game. If you want to wait to see if he
  558. 20:29actually plays before betting it, that's
  559. 20:30absolutely reasonable. But if you're
  560. 20:33thinking along the same lines as me, I
  561. 20:35think maybe Kein actually gave us a
  562. 20:36little bit of an edge here, lowering
  563. 20:37this line to below a field goal. So, I
  564. 20:39will lay the points and take LSU in this
  565. 20:41matchup. All right, I tell you what,
  566. 20:43it'll be interesting to see if it plays
  567. 20:45out the way that Ryan thinks, but no
  568. 20:46doubt about it, he's got some great data
  569. 20:48to support his position. Let's take a
  570. 20:50quick break. We are taking a quick break
  571. 20:53because our week 2 special is still
  572. 20:55running and I don't want you to miss out
  573. 20:57on it. Later on in this show, I'm going
  574. 20:59to give you my best bet of the week and
  575. 21:01I am 37 and 13 the 74% lifetime on those
  576. 21:05podcast bets and I'm sure it's one of
  577. 21:07your favorite segments on the show. But
  578. 21:09my clients over at Sharp Football
  579. 21:11Analysis get a lot more than one best
  580. 21:14bet from me. Not only do they get all of
  581. 21:16my NFL recommendations, but they also
  582. 21:18get push alerts sent straight to their
  583. 21:20phone every single time I release a new
  584. 21:22play with our app. Last week, I got off
  585. 21:24to a hot start on elevated props, going
  586. 21:277 and one. That's 88% improving my
  587. 21:29perfect record on 1.25 unit plays to 12
  588. 21:33and 0 lifetime. If you want to win with
  589. 21:36us this season, I've got the great offer
  590. 21:38for you to get all of our
  591. 21:40recommendations plus all of our
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  596. 21:52Just use code show35 on our NFL Plus
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  598. 21:58month of my NFL betting recommendations,
  599. 22:01plus Rich Reubar's breakdowns of every
  600. 22:03single game for the price of just two
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  602. 22:08show35 to get on board before kickoff on
  603. 22:11Sunday. All right, now it's time for one
  604. 22:13of my favorite segments of the show.
  605. 22:16It's when I'm joined by Rich Reebar, our
  606. 22:19fantasy football expert over at Sharp
  607. 22:20Football Analysis and member of the
  608. 22:22Sharp Prop Squad. He loves Ben and Props
  609. 22:25as much as we all do and as much as you
  610. 22:27guys do at home as well. He's got three
  611. 22:30of his favorite props for you this week.
  612. 22:33Two different games. We're gonna first
  613. 22:35start talking about the game between the
  614. 22:37New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore
  615. 22:39Ravens where he has one prop there and
  616. 22:41that prop is going to be on Lamar
  617. 22:44Jackson and his passing yards. Rich, I
  618. 22:46know this is probably related to the
  619. 22:49fact that Baltimore's got some injuries.
  620. 22:51Their point spread favors this as well.
  621. 22:53Uh right now you can find Lamar Jackson
  622. 22:56under 221 and a half yards over here at
  623. 23:00DraftKings. So that's the line we'll go
  624. 23:02with for the show. Talk to us about why
  625. 23:05you like this one.
  626. 23:06>> This one has a multiple pulling pulling
  627. 23:08factors. Obviously, you know, with if Z
  628. 23:11Flowers doesn't play and Jacobe Lane
  629. 23:12already being out, that's that's two
  630. 23:14wide receivers. The Ravens are being
  631. 23:15down, but it also has to go into
  632. 23:18incorporating the game climate and the
  633. 23:21opponent. Uh just four players have hit
  634. 23:24this number against the Saints since
  635. 23:26they hired Brandon Staley. Jared Goff
  636. 23:28needed 39 passes in overtime last week.
  637. 23:30to throw for 206 yards. Uh we're not
  638. 23:33going to get 39 pass attempts with the
  639. 23:35Ravens as uh you know home seven point
  640. 23:37home favorites without you know
  641. 23:39potentially two wide receivers. So in
  642. 23:42general this is a good line I think
  643. 23:43anyways without even factoring any of
  644. 23:45those things. Um and then when you
  645. 23:48factor in them being seven-point
  646. 23:49favorites and where the Saints, you
  647. 23:51know, struggled uh last week really was
  648. 23:54defending the run and outside zone runs.
  649. 23:56We really went into that heavy on the
  650. 23:58matchup show with Derrick Henry. So,
  651. 24:00check that out. I think this just sets
  652. 24:01up to be a Derrick Henry game. So, and
  653. 24:04then last week the
  654. 24:06uh Indianapolis Colts played man
  655. 24:08coverage at the highest rate of the NFL.
  656. 24:10Lamar Jackson had 18 yards per pass
  657. 24:12attempt. 18 yards per pass attempt
  658. 24:14against cover one, which the Colts
  659. 24:16played uh 39% of the time to open the
  660. 24:18year. Brandon S played man coverage 1.4%
  661. 24:21of snaps uh in week one. Uh that was the
  662. 24:24case last year, too. their bottom five
  663. 24:26team. He plays very passive. Uh makes
  664. 24:28you throw underneath the it's predicated
  665. 24:30on coming up coming up and tackling. So
  666. 24:34all those factors in here have me
  667. 24:36leading to Lamar Jackson and under.
  668. 24:39>> I love that stat. It's almost hard to
  669. 24:41believe. I know that they played the
  670. 24:43terrible quarterbacks in the NFC South,
  671. 24:45but for Staley to allow this number only
  672. 24:47four times since he's been there, which
  673. 24:50obviously is what, like 18 games, uh
  674. 24:53that's that's pretty remarkable. So,
  675. 24:55we'll see how this one goes. Your next
  676. 24:56game is the huge matchup between the
  677. 25:00Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville
  678. 25:02Jaguars. You've got two of your favorite
  679. 25:03props from this game specifically. So,
  680. 25:06let's start with another passing yards
  681. 25:07prop. We're going to look at Bo Knicks
  682. 25:10passing yards for the uh Denver Broncos.
  683. 25:13Right now, you can go under 222 and a
  684. 25:16half over at DraftKings. It's 220 and a
  685. 25:19half at several other spots out there.
  686. 25:21So, this is the best line for sure. Talk
  687. 25:24to us about why you like Bonix under his
  688. 25:27222 and a half passing yards here.
  689. 25:31Obviously didn't come anywhere close to
  690. 25:33this last week against the Kansas City
  691. 25:35Chiefs who just maintained massive time
  692. 25:37of possession on Monday Night Football
  693. 25:39and Bonenix certainly looked terrible.
  694. 25:42Do they figure it out in this game,
  695. 25:44Rich? And uh give me a quick opine if
  696. 25:47you will about the play calling
  697. 25:49situation there. This is pure
  698. 25:51speculation on your part, but what
  699. 25:53happens there? How long does Shawn
  700. 25:54Payeyton bite his lip? Is he heavily
  701. 25:56involved in the game plan for this
  702. 25:58week's game? Does he does he get into
  703. 26:00the headset during timeouts and help
  704. 26:01steer things? At what point might he
  705. 26:03take over play calling entirely? Talk to
  706. 26:06us about that as you talk to us about
  707. 26:07why you like Bo Knicks over his passing
  708. 26:09yards.
  709. 26:11>> Yeah. Yeah. There's like I saw the
  710. 26:12interview of Shawn Payeyton at halftime.
  711. 26:14They asked if he was going to call plays
  712. 26:15and he was like, "We'll see how this
  713. 26:16goes." And you just kind of flip, you
  714. 26:18know, it's always tongue and cheek, but
  715. 26:19it was it was a disaster, right? Like
  716. 26:21you can't get excited to bet about what
  717. 26:23you saw on uh an over for based on what
  718. 26:25you saw on Monday night. Like I
  719. 26:26understand, but uh this was this one's
  720. 26:29pretty far away from my projection here.
  721. 26:31And I don't know if anyone listened to
  722. 26:33the show last year, but we actually gave
  723. 26:35out this same prop at a way higher
  724. 26:37number last year in this matchup. Uh and
  725. 26:40that's why I kind of want to have some
  726. 26:41faith you kind of going back here. The
  727. 26:44Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of
  728. 26:46last year are the number two pass funnel
  729. 26:48in the NFL. Teams have thrown the ball 4
  730. 26:50and a.5% over expectations against them.
  731. 26:53They have an awesome run defense, which
  732. 26:54we'll get into in a second. Uh, in this
  733. 26:57matchup last year, the Denver Broncos
  734. 26:58threw the ball 9.6%
  735. 27:00over pass rate expectations. Bonix had
  736. 27:0347 pass attempts. Uh, threw for 350
  737. 27:06yards in this matchup. They're just
  738. 27:08going to have to throw in this in this
  739. 27:10game. So, I want to play from a value
  740. 27:12perspective. Obviously, we are, you
  741. 27:14know, taking a step of faith that
  742. 27:15they're going to, you know, throw for
  743. 27:16more than 4.7 yards or pass attempt and
  744. 27:18that Boon Knicks is going to throw the
  745. 27:20football downfield to the degree where
  746. 27:22we told we were told this preseason they
  747. 27:24were going to and did not see in week
  748. 27:26one. We talked about in the matchup show
  749. 27:28giving some of these firsttime play
  750. 27:29callers that ran up against good
  751. 27:32defensive coordinators. Uh maybe a
  752. 27:35little bit of of a grace period, a
  753. 27:37little bit of cart blanch. You know, we
  754. 27:38had David Blau going against Vic Fangio
  755. 27:40and David Webb winning against Steve
  756. 27:41Spagnolo on the road in week one. Uh
  757. 27:44Steve Spagnolo's made a lot of a lot of
  758. 27:45play callers look bad. Uh I do think
  759. 27:47that they'll that we're going to see a
  760. 27:49lot of passing in this game and see a
  761. 27:50bounceback at least in terms of counting
  762. 27:52stats. Like that's not me saying like
  763. 27:54the Denver Broncos are going to look
  764. 27:55like this, you know, you know, air it
  765. 27:57out and look like this awesome offense
  766. 27:59because in that game that they played in
  767. 28:01week 16 year ago, Bonick's drew for a
  768. 28:03lot of yards, but they lost the game and
  769. 28:05it wasn't particularly pretty. But this
  770. 28:07this line being 220 and a2 I think is
  771. 28:10significantly low. Shawn Watson threw
  772. 28:12for 205 yards against them in week one
  773. 28:14on just 22 passes. I know some of that
  774. 28:16was you know late game script but that's
  775. 28:18why you know also you you get this
  776. 28:20factored in. I have this one just as a
  777. 28:22median projection in the 240s. Uh this
  778. 28:24is one last year we laded into the 300s
  779. 28:27and obviously got the 350. So um looking
  780. 28:30at Jacksonville they had the highest you
  781. 28:31know success rate uh per passing play in
  782. 28:33in week one. Uh, I think they're going
  783. 28:36to drive game scripts because this
  784. 28:37offense looks like an absolute wagon.
  785. 28:39Uh, and that's what we're going to have
  786. 28:41here where the Denver is chasing points
  787. 28:42and potentially having to throw the
  788. 28:44football against this very pass funnel
  789. 28:46defense. Yeah, a couple of your props
  790. 28:48this week are unders. And so this is the
  791. 28:50only over and we always like to ask you
  792. 28:53when you're betting one of these overs,
  793. 28:54do you like the lading potential here?
  794. 28:56So it sounds like you do. You have the
  795. 28:58line at 240. Uh, do you think that you
  796. 29:01ladder higher than 250 here? I know we
  797. 29:04said we laded it even higher last year,
  798. 29:06but uh where would you kind of want to
  799. 29:08stop with your own personal lading?
  800. 29:11>> I mean I honestly personally I probably
  801. 29:13will take this to the threes uh just by
  802. 29:16that I mean the way that Jacksonville
  803. 29:18opened the season compared to where they
  804. 29:20left off like I have kind of no
  805. 29:22questions about this unit. I mean they
  806. 29:24went into they went into Denver last
  807. 29:25year and put up 38 points. Uh, I think
  808. 29:28they're going to with Denver coming, you
  809. 29:30know, on a short week on the road, I
  810. 29:32think they're going to move the
  811. 29:33football. So, I I I still probably would
  812. 29:36take this to three uh on my own, but
  813. 29:38like, you know, definitely probably 250
  814. 29:40if you want to stop. Uh, we didn't even
  815. 29:41say like, you know, week one, you know,
  816. 29:43you know, the week one's always kind of
  817. 29:44a wonky week and we had like one great
  818. 29:46ladder with Devon Veillay and I also
  819. 29:48gave you guys an over for a player that
  820. 29:50had zero yards in the game. So, you
  821. 29:52know, we're, you know, we're working
  822. 29:54some things through. We're trying to
  823. 29:55find that sample size and work some
  824. 29:57things out as well. But, uh, this is one
  825. 29:59where I think we're it's overactoring,
  826. 30:01overindexing what happened in week one
  827. 30:03for the Denver Broncos. Uh, and I do
  828. 30:05think that they're going to have some
  829. 30:06passing success here, at least in terms
  830. 30:07of counting stats.
  831. 30:09>> Yeah, I'm looking at uh, some of the
  832. 30:11odds here. 300 plus yards is as high as
  833. 30:16plus 690. Uh 275 plus yards is
  834. 30:22uh as I scroll through here uh plus 300.
  835. 30:27Uh 280 is plus 410. So there's some nice
  836. 30:31payouts on some of the ladders if Boicks
  837. 30:34cross our fingers can get back on track
  838. 30:36here in week two against the Jags pass
  839. 30:39funnel. And that leads us to your second
  840. 30:42prop. same game and you're going to the
  841. 30:45same Denver Broncos offense, but this
  842. 30:46time you're looking at an under and
  843. 30:48you're looking at the under on JK
  844. 30:50Dobbins rushing yards. Right now, the
  845. 30:52best line in the market that we're
  846. 30:54seeing is 61 and a half. So, you can
  847. 30:56find 61 a half out there and you're
  848. 30:58looking to go under 61 and a half yards
  849. 31:01against the Jacksonville Jaguars run
  850. 31:03defense. Talk to us about that. Yeah,
  851. 31:05one thing I'll say at the top of this to
  852. 31:06keep an eye on is you might end up
  853. 31:08getting a better number on this later in
  854. 31:10the week depending what happens with
  855. 31:11R.J. Harvey. Uh he missed practiced
  856. 31:13yesterday with a hamstring injury, but
  857. 31:15because Denver played on Monday night,
  858. 31:16it wasn't a true practice day. It was a
  859. 31:18speculation. He finished the game. So,
  860. 31:19it seems like it could just be
  861. 31:21precautionary, but just something to
  862. 31:22keep an eye on because if R.J. Harvard
  863. 31:24to be ruled out, you might get a couple
  864. 31:25extra yards on this uh where it goes up.
  865. 31:28But I still think this number in general
  866. 31:30gives you a lot of outs. One, if R.J.
  867. 31:32Harvey plays, we know that there's
  868. 31:33potential there's just going to be a
  869. 31:34backfield split. Uh I already talked
  870. 31:36about too the Jacksonville Jaguars being
  871. 31:39a a pass funnel and pushing teams to
  872. 31:41throw the football at a higher rate for
  873. 31:43expectation. And it's not just because
  874. 31:45they're a good offense and they score
  875. 31:46points. They're also a really good run
  876. 31:48defense. In 2025, they were fourth in
  877. 31:51the NFL in yards per carry allowed the
  878. 31:53running backs. They come right back out
  879. 31:54in week one and allow 34 yards on 13
  880. 31:57runs. Yes, Cleveland Browns, but again,
  881. 31:59proof of concept to last year. This is
  882. 32:01something consistent. Just three running
  883. 32:03backs since the start of last year have
  884. 32:05run for 62 or more yards against the
  885. 32:07Jacksonville Jaguars and two of them
  886. 32:08were Jonathan Taylor. So, uh, this was
  887. 32:11one they're a team that we had a lot of
  888. 32:12success, you know, betting unders, uh,
  889. 32:14last last year in the run game. This
  890. 32:16one, I think, for all the things we
  891. 32:18covered with the Bo Knicks angle, the
  892. 32:19potential of a backfield split in the
  893. 32:21matchup uh, just correlates really well
  894. 32:23and lines up uh, with what we talked
  895. 32:25about. So, this one uh, we'll put a bow
  896. 32:28on that with that. All right, so we got
  897. 32:30three outstanding props from Rich
  898. 32:32Reebar. One lading opportunity, two
  899. 32:34unders. Great appearance here in week
  900. 32:37two's episode. Looking forward to more.
  901. 32:40Good luck with everything this weekend,
  902. 32:41Rich. Good luck. All right, now it's
  903. 32:43time for our outstanding referee expert
  904. 32:46Joe Gibbs to break down three of the
  905. 32:49most impactful games where he's going to
  906. 32:51be talking about that third team on the
  907. 32:54field. You've got team A, team B, and
  908. 32:56the refs. And the refs definitely have
  909. 32:59trends and tendencies that need to be
  910. 33:01incorporated into your analysis. This
  911. 33:04week he's going to hit the Cincinnati
  912. 33:06Bengals at the Houston Texans, the
  913. 33:07Jacksonville Jaguars at the Denver
  914. 33:09Broncos, and the Monday Night Football
  915. 33:11game when the New York Giants travel to
  916. 33:14take on the Los Angeles Rams. Three
  917. 33:16great games. Let's hear what Joe has to
  918. 33:19say.
  919. 33:19>> Okay, Bengals at Texans Adrien Hill, the
  920. 33:21referee. Uh last week 66% of penalties
  921. 33:25from Hills crew on the offensive side of
  922. 33:27the ball. That was the Patriots Seahawks
  923. 33:29game. After one week they lead the
  924. 33:31league in false start penalties. Last
  925. 33:33season 2025 they led the league in
  926. 33:34offensive holding penalties per game. So
  927. 33:37there is an emphasis from these guys
  928. 33:38along that line of scrimmage and the
  929. 33:40best way to negate that would be have a
  930. 33:41very disciplined offense. Cincinnati has
  931. 33:43been just that over the past five
  932. 33:45seasons. So they may hold an edge there
  933. 33:47on Sunday. Um we're going to look at
  934. 33:49automatic first downs by penalty. Last
  935. 33:51season, the Texans ranked in the top
  936. 33:53three. They're currently ranked in the
  937. 33:54top three after one week of this season.
  938. 33:56They're very good at picking up those
  939. 33:57illegal contact and defensive holding
  940. 33:59penalties. The past five seasons, the
  941. 34:01Bengals have ranked in the top five,
  942. 34:02generating automatic first downs via
  943. 34:04penalty, primarily via defensive pass
  944. 34:06interference and defensive holding. So,
  945. 34:09the way this game is adjudicated on
  946. 34:11Sunday on the edges, the battle between
  947. 34:13the wide receivers and the defensive
  948. 34:14backs will be fascinating and will play
  949. 34:17a part in the game. Do Hills crew let
  950. 34:20them play or do they get a little ticky
  951. 34:21tack? They start calling a lot of little
  952. 34:23different things. And so there's a huge
  953. 34:25variance as to which way they approach
  954. 34:27the game from an officiating standpoint.
  955. 34:30Both teams have the ability to get those
  956. 34:32easy yards and automatic first downs via
  957. 34:34the penalty. Cincinnati have played 10
  958. 34:36games with Hill in the Joe Burrow era.
  959. 34:38They're 72 and one in those contests.
  960. 34:40The one was a tie versus the Eagles in
  961. 34:422021. Point being, they do have a good
  962. 34:45record with him in that many games. No
  963. 34:47referee. they have a better record with.
  964. 34:49So, there's clearly something there.
  965. 34:51Maybe it's just coincidence, but there's
  966. 34:53something there that they excel when
  967. 34:55Adrien Hills crew is on the game. So,
  968. 34:58the game itself, to me, it's a coin toss
  969. 35:00game. I I like both teams. I think they
  970. 35:03both can make the playoffs, but
  971. 35:05ultimately only one can probably win
  972. 35:06unless it's a tie on Sunday. And for
  973. 35:09that reason, I've got to go with the
  974. 35:10underdog here. And so, Cincinnati,
  975. 35:12they're getting the points on Sunday
  976. 35:14against the Texans. And so that's the
  977. 35:16only way I can look with this is the
  978. 35:17Cincinnati Bengals plus the points on
  979. 35:19Sunday.
  980. 35:21Okay, so the Jaguars at the Broncos,
  981. 35:23John Hussy, the referee. Interesting
  982. 35:25note from week one, Hussy's crew, 74% of
  983. 35:28their overall penalties were assessed
  984. 35:29via pre- snap infractions, which led the
  985. 35:31league. And to put that in perspective,
  986. 35:33the league average most years is around
  987. 35:3538%. So they went above and beyond
  988. 35:37enforcing those pre-nap penalties last
  989. 35:40week. If that continues this week, uh
  990. 35:42it's a huge help for Denver, who has one
  991. 35:44of the best homefield advantages in the
  992. 35:46league. And the crowd noise, it really
  993. 35:48creates confusion on the opposing
  994. 35:50offensive line, and it creates those
  995. 35:52pre- snap penalties. So, keep that in
  996. 35:53mind. Uh Hussy himself, a fantastic
  997. 35:56homefield referee. Here's some numbers
  998. 35:57from the last decade with him. Home
  999. 35:59teams against the spread, 9961 and five.
  1000. 36:03So, 62% against the spread with John
  1001. 36:05Hussy. That's the best in the league
  1002. 36:07over that time. and they're one and0
  1003. 36:09straight up and against the spread this
  1004. 36:10year with him. That was the Cincinnati
  1005. 36:11Bengals last week. So, some positive
  1006. 36:14signs there for Denver. What we saw on
  1007. 36:16Monday night was an absolute debacle.
  1008. 36:18Um, I guess the only way is up. And then
  1009. 36:21you combine that with it's their home
  1010. 36:22opener. There will be a focus on getting
  1011. 36:25things right this week and then you have
  1012. 36:27the best homefield referee in the
  1013. 36:29business on the game. So, the
  1014. 36:32overreaction from week one to week two
  1015. 36:34is immense. people get carried away with
  1016. 36:37what they saw in week one and it's
  1017. 36:38almost a leap of faith that teams that
  1018. 36:40were terrible in the opening week that
  1019. 36:43you get back on them the second week but
  1020. 36:45history shows that teams do tend to turn
  1021. 36:47things around and quickly so for that
  1022. 36:50reason all those elements combined the
  1023. 36:52Broncos off a terrible performance at
  1024. 36:54home home opener the best homefield
  1025. 36:57referee and a relatively low number all
  1026. 36:59things considered we're going to go here
  1027. 37:01with the Denver Broncos as a small
  1028. 37:03favorite versus the Jacksonville Jaguars
  1029. 37:05all All right, so the Giants at the
  1030. 37:06Rams, Monday Night Football, Brad Allen,
  1031. 37:08the referee. Home teams over the past
  1032. 37:10decade, 83 60-1 straight up, 59% with
  1033. 37:14Brad Allen. So there's some positives
  1034. 37:15for the Rams right there. Over that same
  1035. 37:17period, those home teams about 52%
  1036. 37:20against the spread. So as far as the
  1037. 37:23game and the way it's going to be
  1038. 37:24officiated, Allen's crew last year
  1039. 37:27averaged the fewest penalties per game.
  1040. 37:28Now fast forward to this year, week one,
  1041. 37:30they averaged the most penalties, 22.
  1042. 37:33So, you're going to see them make a
  1043. 37:34concerted effort to really reduce that,
  1044. 37:36which may help the Giants in theory. Uh,
  1045. 37:39the Rams are one of the most disciplined
  1046. 37:40teams, so they'll be fine. The issue
  1047. 37:42last week for the Giants versus the
  1048. 37:44Cowboys was the defensive secondary.
  1049. 37:46They surrendered five automatic first
  1050. 37:48downs by penalty, primarily by defensive
  1051. 37:50pass interference. And so, that looms as
  1052. 37:53a potential problem on Monday night.
  1053. 37:55You've got Puka and you got Devonte
  1054. 37:58Adams. Puker in particular is very good
  1055. 37:59at fighting through the ball and getting
  1056. 38:02those calls. if he doesn't actually get
  1057. 38:03the catch itself. So, Giants need to be
  1058. 38:06mindful of that. Um, get the pressure up
  1059. 38:09front. Don't give Sappa time to really
  1060. 38:10launch those things downfield. Um, the
  1061. 38:13Giants, I was really impressed with them
  1062. 38:15last week. I said the big three, Cam
  1063. 38:17Scatteraboo, Jackson Dot, Malik
  1064. 38:19Neighbors. My concern was how many games
  1065. 38:21that they played together. Well, as it
  1066. 38:22turns out, they got through that one
  1067. 38:24unscathed and they're going to be there
  1068. 38:25on Monday night versus a Rams team that
  1069. 38:28look, they came in as the Super Bowl
  1070. 38:30favorites and that was built off the
  1071. 38:33fact that they're going to have Miles
  1072. 38:34Garrett, Aaron Donald. Well, Miles
  1073. 38:36Garrett's out and I'm not sure what the
  1074. 38:38deal is with Aaron Donald. Is he
  1075. 38:40playing? Is he not playing? The point is
  1076. 38:42the Giants are not facing that team that
  1077. 38:44everybody had circled as a Super Bowl
  1078. 38:46team this season. So, they catch a break
  1079. 38:48here in that regard. John Harour himself
  1080. 38:51has a pretty good head-to-head record
  1081. 38:53with Shawn McVey. Obviously, that was
  1082. 38:55with Baltimore and Lamar, but there are
  1083. 38:56sim some some similarities here with the
  1084. 38:58Giants. You've got that physical running
  1085. 39:00game that can control the line of
  1086. 39:02scrimmage and control the clock. So,
  1087. 39:06look, I like the Rams. I still think
  1088. 39:07they're going to make the playoffs, but
  1089. 39:08it's going to be a lot more choppy than
  1090. 39:10people initially expected when the
  1091. 39:12season began. So, for that reason, I
  1092. 39:14like the Giants here getting a big
  1093. 39:16number on Monday Night Football against
  1094. 39:18the LA Rams.
  1095. 39:20>> All right, that was some outstanding
  1096. 39:21information from Joe as usual. I'm
  1097. 39:24looking forward to hearing from him all
  1098. 39:26season long. Let's keep it rolling.
  1099. 39:28Before we get into my best bet of the
  1100. 39:30week, a quick shout out to our partners
  1101. 39:31over at Odds Jam. If you're betting this
  1102. 39:34season, getting the best number on every
  1103. 39:36bet matters. You see their odds screen
  1104. 39:38on every single one of the shows. I pull
  1105. 39:40it up. Odds Jam screen shows you
  1106. 39:42realtime lines at every sports book so
  1107. 39:45you can lock in all of your bets at the
  1108. 39:47best possible value. I use this tool
  1109. 39:50every day and shopping for the best line
  1110. 39:52will save you money over the course of
  1111. 39:53the season. If you want to test out
  1112. 39:55OddsJam, click the link in the
  1113. 39:57description below and use code warren to
  1114. 40:00get a free week trial. And if you stay
  1115. 40:02on board, that code will get you 40% off
  1116. 40:06your first month. Now, let's get to my
  1117. 40:08best bet of the week. All right, guys.
  1118. 40:10Now it is time for my best bet of the
  1119. 40:13week. It's a great feeling to start out
  1120. 40:15the season with a win like we did last
  1121. 40:17week. But last week's in the rearview
  1122. 40:19mirror. Let's focus on the future. But
  1123. 40:21before we do, it's hard not to mention
  1124. 40:22we're 37 and 13 lifetime on these
  1125. 40:26podcast best bets. Outstanding track
  1126. 40:29record. I hope to keep it going here in
  1127. 40:32week two. And for that, I'm going to
  1128. 40:33turn to my odds jam screen, and we're
  1129. 40:36going to go to Bucky Irving, the running
  1130. 40:39back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This
  1131. 40:41line is a solid 58 and a half at
  1132. 40:44virtually every single book that's out
  1133. 40:46there with a line, and we are going over
  1134. 40:5058 for Bucky Irving rushing yards
  1135. 40:54against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday
  1136. 40:57afternoon. I've got a variety of reasons
  1137. 40:59why I like Bucky Irving to have 60 plus
  1138. 41:02rushing yards in this game. Let's first
  1139. 41:05start with the fact that this
  1140. 41:06interesting nugget that I dug up about
  1141. 41:09teams playing back-to-back road games in
  1142. 41:12Florida to start the season. May not
  1143. 41:14hear this from anywhere else. Did the
  1144. 41:16research last night interesting factoid
  1145. 41:18here. We know that the Cleveland Browns
  1146. 41:20just played down in Jacksonville last
  1147. 41:22week. That was in Florida. And Cleveland
  1148. 41:24is obviously not from Florida. They're
  1149. 41:25from Cleveland, Ohio. where it's not
  1150. 41:28nearly the temperature and humidity like
  1151. 41:31it is down in Jacksonville. Now they
  1152. 41:33have to go back and go even further
  1153. 41:35south to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  1154. 41:38This is the first time in my database
  1155. 41:40that goes back to 1990 that a team has
  1156. 41:43gone back-to back road games weeks one
  1157. 41:47and two of the season in Florida. I
  1158. 41:50think that matters. I think it's
  1159. 41:51difficult to acclimate yourself to that
  1160. 41:54weather. I think it wears you down and I
  1161. 41:57think it's going to cause problems for
  1162. 41:59them. We'll talk about some of their
  1163. 42:00missed tackles. But one of the
  1164. 42:02interesting other facts here is related
  1165. 42:04to how often has that happened even in
  1166. 42:07the first seven weeks of the season
  1167. 42:09where a team that's not from Florida has
  1168. 42:11had to go to Florida twice in two weeks,
  1169. 42:14two straight games. It's only happened
  1170. 42:16four times since 1990. So super rare
  1171. 42:20that in the first seven weeks of the
  1172. 42:22season, forget the first two, the first
  1173. 42:24seven, a team goes back to back in
  1174. 42:26Florida, those four teams 0 and4
  1175. 42:28straight up 0 and4 against the spread.
  1176. 42:31And the biggest stat here that factors
  1177. 42:34into this game in my opinion, I know
  1178. 42:35it's a super small sample size, guys,
  1179. 42:37they've allowed 190 rushing yards per
  1180. 42:40game in that second meeting, second trip
  1181. 42:43to Florida, 190 rushing yards per game.
  1182. 42:46We they saw games of 248 rushing yards
  1183. 42:49allowed. 223, 166, and 123 rushing
  1184. 42:53yards. They're allowing 5.1 yards per
  1185. 42:56rush in those games. And all those teams
  1186. 42:58were short underdogs of between two and
  1187. 43:00a half and four and a half points. Not
  1188. 43:03like what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are
  1189. 43:05laying points to the Cleveland Browns in
  1190. 43:07this game. Cleveland just allowed last
  1191. 43:11week in Jacksonville who and I don't
  1192. 43:14think those two running backs are super
  1193. 43:16dynamic or elite. You got Chris
  1194. 43:18Rodriguez, you got Bashalt Tutin. I I
  1195. 43:20think Bucky Irving is better than both
  1196. 43:22of them and Buckyy's actually healthy
  1197. 43:24right now. Um they allowed 4.32 yards
  1198. 43:28after contact per rush to Jacksonville
  1199. 43:31Jaguars running backs last week. They
  1200. 43:33allowed 121 rushing yards overall at 4.8
  1201. 43:368 yards per carry to Jacksonville
  1202. 43:38Jaguars rushing backs last week. Bucky
  1203. 43:41Irving played 62% of the snaps last
  1204. 43:44week. The issue for Bucky Irving and why
  1205. 43:46he only had less why he had less than 50
  1206. 43:49rushing yards is Tampa goes down 14-3
  1207. 43:53thanks in part due to Baker Mayfield and
  1208. 43:56other fumbles, right? They go down 14-3
  1209. 43:59with two minutes in the first quarter
  1210. 44:00remaining. They're down 21-3 midway
  1211. 44:04through the second quarter. This is not
  1212. 44:06the situation that you can run the
  1213. 44:08football. This is not a run first
  1214. 44:09opportunity for you in that first half
  1215. 44:12because of the way that the game was be
  1216. 44:14playing out. Bucky Irving had just five
  1217. 44:17rushes. That's that's nothing. Five
  1218. 44:20rushes. You know how many yards he still
  1219. 44:21gained? 31. 31. And it wasn't just one
  1220. 44:25run for like 25 yards. He had three runs
  1221. 44:28that gained at least nine yards. He
  1222. 44:31averaged 6.2 yards per carry. They just
  1223. 44:33couldn't run the football enough because
  1224. 44:36they were losing so badly that they had
  1225. 44:39to pass the ball a bit more and they
  1226. 44:41kept turning the ball over as well. Due
  1227. 44:44to the score, Tampa Bay had only six
  1228. 44:46running back runs in the second half. Um
  1229. 44:49Gainwell got some run in the second half
  1230. 44:52because of the game state because it was
  1231. 44:53sort of like a pass play where Gainwell
  1232. 44:56would be more likely to be in there, but
  1233. 44:57they're calling a run check into a run
  1234. 44:59or it's a run play that just better
  1235. 45:01suited Gainwell. Gainwell averaged three
  1236. 45:04yards a carry on those runs. Bucky
  1237. 45:06Irving was at 5.6 on those second half
  1238. 45:08runs. I just don't think that Gainwell
  1239. 45:11is a legitimate threat to Bucky Irving.
  1240. 45:14Um, I think Irving had just eight rushes
  1241. 45:18in the entire game.
  1242. 45:20There's no way Todd Bulls allows that to
  1243. 45:23happen in this game against the
  1244. 45:24Cleveland Browns.
  1245. 45:27Todd BS is going to come out here,
  1246. 45:29especially the way Baker was running
  1247. 45:30around, fumbling the football, having it
  1248. 45:33strip sacked, all this nonsense, and
  1249. 45:35he's going to say, "We're running the
  1250. 45:37football with Bucky Irving, and we're
  1251. 45:39going to have success against this
  1252. 45:40defense that just was gashed for 121
  1253. 45:43rushing yards last week at 4.8 yards per
  1254. 45:46carry.
  1255. 45:47Bucky doesn't even need to get half of
  1256. 45:49the 121 rushing yards, right? like he he
  1257. 45:52is still going to eclipse this number uh
  1258. 45:55with slightly less than half of that and
  1259. 45:57he's obviously going to get way more
  1260. 45:58than half of the rushing attempts here
  1261. 46:00for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think
  1262. 46:02their game state is going to be better.
  1263. 46:04I think their head coach being defensive
  1264. 46:06minded top BS is going to lean into the
  1265. 46:08run a little bit more and I think Bucky
  1266. 46:11offers bigger upside and the potential
  1267. 46:13to break explosive runs uh better than
  1268. 46:16BEA Tutin or Chris Rodriguez. So, I just
  1269. 46:18think that Bucky Irving is in a great
  1270. 46:20spot here. Um, like last week, I told
  1271. 46:23you that I had a lot of props that I
  1272. 46:25like, and I'm always going to be direct
  1273. 46:27with you guys in terms of how I'm
  1274. 46:29feeling about certain things.
  1275. 46:32I don't love the fact that the time I'm
  1276. 46:34recording this show, I don't have
  1277. 46:36markets right now for props for longest
  1278. 46:39rushes or longest catches or things of
  1279. 46:43that nature. Those just aren't lined
  1280. 46:44right now. And we'll have to see if I
  1281. 46:46need to adjust when I'm recording this
  1282. 46:47show to accommodate our ability to use
  1283. 46:51more of those types of props on the best
  1284. 46:54bet segment. But I go through my list
  1285. 46:57and I like compile all the games and the
  1286. 46:59data and the analysis and come up with
  1287. 47:01my list of props that I like. I told you
  1288. 47:03last week that there were a number of
  1289. 47:05props that I really liked at the top I
  1290. 47:07felt strongly about and I went with the
  1291. 47:09Kenneth Walker receptions. We ended up
  1292. 47:12going seven and one with my strongest
  1293. 47:15props last week, those elevated props
  1294. 47:17that we gave out. Seven and one for
  1295. 47:20subs. I feel very strongly about the the
  1296. 47:23props that we've got this week at the
  1297. 47:24top. The ones that I feel very strongly
  1298. 47:26about, I'm selecting the Bucky Irving,
  1299. 47:28but there's a lot that I'm leaving out
  1300. 47:31there. some numbers that I just don't
  1301. 47:33understand. Some unders that I'm looking
  1302. 47:35at that I just I just don't understand
  1303. 47:38how they could possibly line these guys
  1304. 47:40at those numbers. We're going to be
  1305. 47:42giving those out to subs uh as well. So,
  1306. 47:45I feel good about the card this week,
  1307. 47:46but for the purpose of the best bet,
  1308. 47:48we're going with Bucky Irving rushing
  1309. 47:50yards over 58 and a half. Let's try to
  1310. 47:53improve to 2 and 0 on the season. 38 and
  1311. 47:5613 lifetime. And that'll do it for our
  1312. 47:59week 2 Sharp Football Analysis show.
  1313. 48:02Make sure that you guys are subscribed
  1314. 48:04so you never miss an episode. This is
  1315. 48:06the fastest growing betting show on the
  1316. 48:08planet. Good luck in all your bets and
  1317. 48:10we'll see you next

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