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【中間選挙前ブラックマンデーの恐怖】インテル31%・Google14% 大暴落 GOLD 金価格31% とっくにリーマンショック超え｜米国金利インテル金価格ドル円相場分析 26年10月31日 — Transcript

by シマウマFX大学 · 7,053 words · 1,148 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:03Hello, thank you for watching.
0:05As the title suggests, Google plummeted
0:08by about 14%.
0:10And here is Intel.
0:11Intel has seen a drop, or rather a crash
0:14, of about 30%.
0:17If you look at the monthly chart,
0:19relative to history, it's not a question
0:21of whether the AI bubble will burst, it
0:24already has.
0:26Even looking back at the 2000 IT bubble
0:28, Intel's current drop is the largest in
0:31its history.
0:32The fact that it has surpassed that
0:34level leads to the hypothesis that the
0:36bubble burst has already begun.
0:39Yet, the Federal Reserve continues to
0:41claim that the U.S. economy remains
0:43strong.
0:44It’s a mystery, isn't it? This is Intel
0:47. Looking at the daily chart, it's in
0:49this state. It has suffered an
0:50incredible decline. Moreover, this
0:52current AI bubble is structurally very
0:55similar to the subprime mortgage crisis
0:57. It’s structurally very similar to the
0:59Lehman Shock. Both bubbles were fueled
1:01by massive amounts of debt, and it is
1:03said that the scale of the debt in this
1:05AI bubble is dozens of times larger than
1:08that of the subprime crisis. Furthermore
1:10, the current AI bubble is immediately
1:12apparent when you look at the numbers.
1:14This is what's important.
1:16Credit Default Swaps, or CDS. This is
1:19critical. What are Credit Default Swaps
1:21? They are essentially insurance against
1:23bankruptcy, which can also be seen as a
1:25measure of default probability.
1:27Looking at this, the numbers have
1:29already exceeded those from when Lehman
1:31Brothers collapsed in 2008.
1:35Comparing CDS levels just before the
1:37subprime crisis with current levels
1:39suggests we are not just at the
1:40beginning of the end, but possibly in
1:43the midst of a recession, and even more
1:45unsettling is the global bond market—
1:47specifically the U.S. 10-year Treasury
1:49yield, our long-term interest rate,
1:51which is plunging on the hourly chart.
1:55It's eerie, isn't it? Interest rates are
1:57dropping sharply. Isn't that a good
1:59thing?
2:01People have been making so much noise
2:03about government bonds being sold off
2:05and global interest rates rising, so you
2:08might think this decline is a good thing
2:10, but it’s not; in fact, it’s a sign of
2:12the terrifying main event: a recession.
2:17There is a reason I have been repeating
2:19this until I'm blue in the face.
2:21When interest rates fall, normally
2:23that's incredibly good news for the
2:25stock market and for gold, right?
2:28However, look at the reality. What is
2:30happening right now. Interest rates are
2:32dropping, yet stocks are being sold off
2:34. Even gold is being sold. And investors
2:36are fleeing into bonds, that is the
2:38situation. This point is critical. The
2:41truly scary thing isn't a stock market
2:43crash.
2:44It's the reality that the market is
2:46starting to fear something so much that
2:48interest rates are plummeting.
2:52The fact that AI data center investments
2:54are no longer needed, and that demand
2:56for buying stocks has vanished due to
2:58fears of a market drop, causing global
3:00and US interest rates to plummet, is
3:02what's important.
3:06In other words, interest rates falling
3:08like this means there is no longer a
3:10need to scramble for funds around the
3:12world.
3:15Furthermore, it means we no longer need
3:17to sell yen to procure funds.
3:20That is why the yen always strengthens
3:22during a recessionary phase.
3:24On top of that, the US midterm elections
3:27are coming up on November 3rd. That's
3:29already next week. Well, next week, but
3:31really just three days away. Is this
3:33truly just a correction for AI-related
3:36stocks?
3:37Or is it an anomaly in the entire
3:39financial market like we saw before the
3:41Lehman Shock?
3:43Today, I will thoroughly explain the
3:45side of the financial markets that you
3:47would never see from superficial stock
3:50news.
3:51So first, let's look at what happened to
3:53Intel. This isn't a South Korean stock,
3:56by the way. This is Intel's daily stock
3:59price.
4:00First, we will look at two companies
4:02that symbolize this current anomaly: the
4:04parent company of Google, you can't get
4:06any bigger than this.
4:08They are the king of AI.
4:10Alphabet.
4:11And the semiconductor giant, Intel. "
4:13Intel Inside," yes, that Intel. This is
4:17yesterday, October 29th. Alphabet's
4:19stock price dropped 12.6%, well, 13%. It
4:23plunged. A shock on the scale of about
4:25500 billion dollars wiped from its
4:27market capitalization. Why is this
4:29happening?
4:30If you ask what happened, it's not
4:32because Google lost in the AI race.
4:35Of course, it's not just that.
4:39The market has begun to worry about
4:40whether the massive funds poured into AI
4:43will actually return as profits.
4:46The conclusion is starting to emerge
4:48that they probably won't.
4:49Companies are building data centers for
4:52AI. They are buying high-performance
4:54semiconductors in massive quantities.
4:55They are securing power infrastructure.
4:58They are building infrastructure all
4:59around the world, but here's the thing.
5:01Capital expenditure is rising; it's just
5:03investment after investment. The burden
5:05on cash flow is becoming significant.
5:07Yet, profits aren't growing that much.
5:10In other words, the market isn't denying
5:12the future of AI itself.
5:14It acknowledges that AI likely has a
5:16future. However. That is irrelevant.
5:19The market has started to doubt the
5:21previous assumption that the more you
5:23invest in AI, the more money you make.
5:26In fact, they've gone past doubt and are
5:28now denying it, which is why they are
5:30selling stocks. And following Alphabet,
5:33on the next day, the 30 th—yesterday,
5:35that is. As you can see here, there's a
5:38gap down. This time, it's Intel. It was
5:40incredibly shocking. Intel saw a plunge
5:43of about 30%. The biggest crash in its
5:45history. This is a monthly chart, and it
5:48is indeed the biggest crash ever. Well,
5:50this was during the IT bubble crash.
5:53Looking at the monthly chart, this is
5:55the crash from 2000. This crash has now
5:57exceeded that one. This time, the price
5:59movement suggests that expectations for
6:02the company's future have completely
6:04evaporated.
6:06Intel indicated that its quarterly
6:07revenue forecast would fall
6:09significantly short of market
6:11expectations and that it does not expect
6:13positive cash flow this year.
6:15This was revealed in their earnings
6:17report. To be blunt, the biggest burden
6:19on Intel was this. Let me explain this
6:21simply and clearly. Why did it turn
6:23negative?
6:25What was weighing them down was that the
6:27skyrocketing cost of semiconductors
6:29drove up their expenses.
6:32In other words, the AI bubble itself is
6:35what caused Intel's stock price to
6:37plummet.
6:38What does this signify?
6:40It was a crash that symbolized the
6:41absolute limits of the AI bubble.
6:45On the other hand, some commentators
6:47argue that there is no AI bubble and
6:49that AI demand will remain strong.
6:51They certainly exist. Then I say, please
6:54, by all means, let the AI bubble
6:56continue. Even investors who are
6:58starting to pull out now would not
6:59withdraw.
7:00Even if a dream scenario were to unfold
7:03where we keep investing infinitely into
7:05AI infrastructure.
7:08Even then, major semiconductor firms
7:10like Intel have to procure
7:12astronomically expensive parts to sell
7:14their, what was it, the Core series CPUs
7:17?
7:18They have to sell those main CPUs.
7:21You see, a computer isn't just about
7:24Intel's main CPU.
7:26The computer won't function. You have to
7:28attach things like Lambda GPUs around it
7:30. And because those costs are so high,
7:33their profits are shrinking.
7:36That won't happen, but even if AI
7:38investment money poured in infinitely,
7:40the limits of the AI bubble were
7:42destined to be reached.
7:46So, as a result, this industry that's
7:48been stretched too thin.
7:50The semiconductor industry is bound to
7:52decline. This outcome was foreseeable.
7:55It means that bubbles simply cannot last
7:57forever.
7:59Just think about it. Due to the AI boom
8:01, semiconductors are selling so fast
8:03they're in short supply. In other words
8:05, they become expensive. Enormous
8:07investments are pouring into data
8:08centers. Yet, despite that, this is
8:11creating a massive burden on the
8:12management of semiconductor companies.
8:15This is the key point this time.
8:18It shows that AI was not a magic wand to
8:20make every company rich.
8:23There will be winners and there will be
8:25losers.
8:26And if the number of companies unable to
8:29recoup their investments grows, the very
8:31expectations that supported the AI
8:33market until now could collapse.
8:35So, here is a question for all of you.
8:38I'd like you to tell me in the comments
8:40: is the AI bubble still in its early
8:42growth stage?
8:45Or is it the latter?
8:46Have we entered a stage where investment
8:49amounts have ballooned so much that
8:50profit recovery can no longer keep up?
8:53Which is it?
8:54On this channel, I will use this very
8:56easy-to-understand CDS—Credit Default
8:59Swap—to clearly show exactly where we
9:01stand on this issue starting now.
9:04What is a Credit Default Swap?
9:08To put it simply, think of it as
9:09insurance against a default—insurance
9:12you take out in case a company defaults
9:14.
9:16Currently, the 5-year CDS for CoreWeave
9:19, an AI infrastructure company whose
9:21daily stock price you see here, is at
9:241,140 basis points.
9:27What does this number mean?
9:30It corresponds to an annual insurance
9:33premium of 11.4%, as shown here.
9:37For example, if you were to guarantee $
9:4010 million in debt, the annual premium
9:43would be $ 1.14 million.
9:46That means the total premium over five
9:49years would come to $ 5.7 million.
9:53It’s unbelievable—you’re paying premiums
9:55that amount to over half of the
9:57guaranteed value in just five years.
10:00Let me give you an easy-to-understand
10:02example. Imagine you take out a 50
10:04million yen loan to buy a house. Instead
10:06of a personal guarantor, you use a
10:08guarantee company for this loan, right?
10:10The amount you'd have to pay that
10:12company would be a staggering 30 million
10:14yen over five years. You borrow 50
10:16million and have to pay 30 million in
10:18five years. That makes no sense, does it
10:21? How untrustworthy would someone have
10:23to be? This is equivalent to evaluating
10:25someone as being on the verge of
10:27bankruptcy. In short.
10:29To understand exactly where we stand,
10:31it’s helpful to compare this to the
10:33Lehman Shock.
10:36If you look at these CDS numbers and the
10:38timeline for Lehman Brothers during the
10:40financial crisis, you’ll immediately
10:42understand the current situation.
10:44Everyone, please take a screenshot of
10:46this. Here it is.
10:49Lehman Brothers 'CDS started at less
10:51than 100 basis points between July and
10:54September 2007.
10:58Then, three days before Lehman Brothers
11:00filed for bankruptcy on September 15,
11:032008.
11:04This was September 12, 2008, three days
11:07before the collapse.
11:09It hit 702 basis points.
11:12Right now, CoreWeave is at 1,140 basis
11:15points, which is nearly double that. If
11:18you look at it through the lens of the
11:20Lehman Shock, CoreWeave is in a state
11:22where it wouldn't be strange if they had
11:24already filed for bankruptcy.
11:27That is why this channel pays more
11:29attention to the bond market than the
11:31stock market.
11:36Here is the US long-term interest rate
11:38again; given the recent sharp drop in
11:40rates, the current stock market crash
11:42might not just be a simple decline, but
11:44a sign of a massive recession that could
11:46exceed the Lehman Shock.
11:51To use an earthquake analogy, it’s not
11:53just a localized fault-line quake, but
11:55potentially a massive Nankai
11:57Trough-class megathrust earthquake; it’s
11:59a complex topic, but I’ve tried to
12:02explain it simply—this drop in interest
12:04rates is what signals it.
12:07The reason is that when the stock market
12:10falls sharply, investors seek safety and
12:12, though it’s no laughing matter, they
12:14shift their capital into bonds like US
12:17Treasuries, even if they aren't perfect
12:19. It’s a situation where they have no
12:21choice but to flee there, even though
12:23the US itself is plenty risky. When
12:25bonds are bought, bond prices rise and
12:27yields fall.
12:29This is it. It is happening right now.
12:31This time, as well, we actually saw
12:33capital flight into US Treasuries
12:35alongside the stock market turmoil. It
12:38was a verified fact. Everyone, I want
12:40you to think about this for a moment.
12:41Why do investors seek safe assets to
12:44such an extent? Is it simply because
12:46stock prices have fallen?
12:48That is the question.
12:51Or have they started to feel anxious
12:53about future corporate earnings, the
12:55profitability of AI investments, and the
12:57growth of the US economy?
13:00I mean, what are government bonds even
13:02for? Fundamentally, they are for seeking
13:04yields. There is no one who buys and
13:06sells them for short-term gains. Not in
13:08the government bond market or the bond
13:10market in general. That is why, because
13:12the current economy is precarious in the
13:14long term—yes, in the long term. They
13:16are fleeing to government bonds. Now,
13:18for the record, there are "good" sharp
13:20drops in interest rates and "bad" sharp
13:23drops in interest rates.
13:26A good drop is when inflation settles
13:28and there is room for monetary policy; a
13:30bad drop—which is what we have now—is
13:33when investors rush into bonds out of
13:35fear of recession or credit instability
13:37.
13:39Isn't this the case? These two have
13:41completely different meanings.
13:42Furthermore, there are only these two
13:44possibilities. So, the question is,
13:47which one is this? Inflation hasn't
13:49settled down, and they're still saying
13:51monetary policy might involve further
13:53rate hikes. The Fed is facing the latter
13:55—the "bad" type of interest rate decline
13:58. In other words, investors are rushing
14:00into bonds out of fear of a recession or
14:03credit instability.
14:05If this happens, the current drop in
14:08stock prices wouldn't just be a decline
14:10; it could turn into a major crash akin
14:12to a genuine global depression.
14:16And again, I’ll say this repeatedly: if
14:18this interest rate decline is indeed the
14:21latter, it is a sign that demands
14:23extreme caution. I've already said it's
14:25the latter, but well, I shouldn't be too
14:27definitive.
14:29That's because a decline in interest
14:31rates is not necessarily good for the
14:33economy.
14:35What happens if the reason for the rate
14:37decline is economic weakness?
14:39Corporate profits decline. Employment
14:41worsens, capital investment shrinks, and
14:44debt repayment capacity decreases. Then
14:46, financial institutions become even
14:48more cautious about lending.
14:50If this chain reaction starts, falling
14:52interest rates won't save the stock
14:54market; instead, they will reflect the
14:57severity of the crisis.
15:00We already know that just the CDS margin
15:02payments alone are unsustainable, though
15:05.
15:07Now, changing the subject, I must also
15:09explain why gold is currently falling.
15:14The reason is that this channel was the
15:16only one pointing out that, even though
15:18everyone worldwide is saying that gold—
15:21a tangible asset—should rise in price
15:23due to heightened credit risk......and
15:25most gold commentators are claiming that
15:27one should buy gold in the midst of a
15:29recession......and that funds should be
15:31moved to safe, tangible assets......
15:33well, that's just not the reality.
15:40While countries around the world are
15:42actually increasing their gold holdings
15:45, this channel was the only one bold
15:47enough to suggest, based on technicals
15:49and past price action, that gold would
15:51suffer a near-crash simultaneously with
15:53a recession.
15:58So, I will start by explaining why gold
16:01is crashing even as interest rates are
16:03falling.
16:05This is the most ominous phenomenon at
16:07the moment. Usually, when interest rates
16:09fall, it’s a tailwind for gold. Gold is
16:12a non-interest-bearing asset; holding it
16:14earns no interest. It earns no interest
16:17. So, when bond yields fall, the
16:19opportunity cost of holding gold
16:20decreases, and there’s no inherent
16:23advantage to owning it. Interest rates
16:25are falling now, aren't they? Yet gold
16:27is being bought, and it should be easier
16:29for gold to see inflows. But in reality
16:31, gold is falling. However, this market
16:34is different. Well, yesterday, the 30th
16:37, gold dropped another 3.5%or so. So,
16:40October alone saw a significant decline
16:43. Even more of a decline. Why is that?
16:46The key point here is the chain reaction
16:48of liquidating assets into cash.
16:51I want everyone to think about this:
16:53when the market gets truly volatile,
16:55it’s not just gold.
16:57What do investors do?
16:59They are currently selling stocks that
17:01are at a loss.
17:03They have to secure margin.
17:05And they have to pay back their debts.
17:07They reduce their positions.
17:10And then, a movement occurs where they
17:12liquidate profitable assets and even
17:14assets that can be sold off quickly.
17:16We’ve had bubbles until now, right?
17:19There’s a gold bubble, right? It’s easy
17:21to turn into cash, isn't it? This is
17:23selling to ensure liquidity.
17:25In other words, just because gold is a
17:28safe asset doesn't mean it will always
17:30rise in situations like this, when risks
17:32are increasing.
17:34It’s actually the opposite.
17:37If the entire market needs cash, even
17:39gold can be sold off.
17:41This is a crucial part, as far as I’m
17:44concerned.
17:45I even believe that over 80%of the
17:47market is driven by investor sentiment.
17:50Speculation, that is.
17:52Everything that had risen too high
17:54during this bubble, whether it was paper
17:56gold or anything else, was a risk asset
17:59in my book.
18:00In other words.
18:03Along with the gold price bubble and the
18:05AI bubble, what was happening was an "
18:07everything bubble."
18:10I’m saying that everything caught up in
18:12that was a risk asset.
18:14Look, when a bubble bursts, things that
18:16rose too high get converted into cash.
18:18It's simple, isn't it? They get cashed
18:20out. Conversely, things that fell too
18:23low get bought back.
18:25This explains the yen selling too,
18:27doesn't it?
18:28Well, during the bubble, inflation rose
18:31and cash lost most of its value. Gold
18:33was rising. The fact that physical
18:35assets were rising means that cash was
18:37losing its value. What did everyone do
18:39during the bubble?
18:41They used the yen carry trade—selling
18:43yen—to raise funds.
18:46So, gold was also inside the "
18:48everything bubble," and when the
18:50everything bubble bursts, everything
18:52reverses.
18:54Investor sentiment goes into reverse.
18:56It’s a simple story: excessive yen
18:58selling eventually leads to a stronger
19:01yen. Furthermore, here is the important
19:03part about gold. A safe asset being sold
19:06and a safe asset losing its value as a
19:08safe asset are two different things.
19:12What this means is that when stocks and
19:14gold are sold simultaneously, you need
19:16to be careful that there isn't a hidden
19:18funding problem that can't be explained
19:20by simple risk aversion.
19:23That's why, as shown here, the holdings
19:26of physical gold ETFs and the futures
19:28price of paper gold are moving in
19:30completely opposite directions right now
19:32.
19:33The movements have diverged
19:34significantly.
19:36In other words, countries buying
19:38physical gold are looking at it as a
19:40long-term safe asset.
19:47Moreover, paper gold was entirely a risk
19:49asset riding the "everything bubble," so
19:52if paper gold continues to fall, for
19:54traders and even nations looking to
19:56increase their physical gold holdings,
19:58it is actually a welcome development.
20:04They know that no matter how much it
20:06drops now, it will eventually rise in
20:08the long run.
20:10If you don't know this—and I'll talk
20:12about the technicals later—even when
20:14this unique channel keeps saying gold
20:16will drop, I still have people around me
20:18who do it.
20:19People who use leverage, trade on margin
20:22, and end up losing everything. That is
20:24what happens. So, let me summarize the
20:27current situation.
20:28To sum up, if a truly massive financial
20:31crisis—the likes of which we've never
20:33seen before—is on the horizon, it won't
20:36necessarily start on the day the stock
20:38market crashes.
20:39Before that happens, credit can break
20:42down, capital flows can shift, and
20:44anomalies often begin deep within the
20:46markets.
20:47That is exactly why I believe we should
20:49not take the current sharp drop in
20:51interest rates and the plunge in gold
20:53lightly.
20:55Do you think this market correction is
20:57just about AI stocks, or do you believe
20:59it’s the gateway to a financial crisis?
21:02Now that you've heard this...Please be
21:04sure to share your thoughts in the
21:06comments section below.
21:09I may be saying this for the first time
21:11, but if you found this video helpful,
21:13please give it a like and subscribe to
21:15the channel.
21:16For those of you who are total chart
21:18nerds or market fanatics, subscribing is
21:20an absolute must. There’s really no room
21:22for hesitation.
21:24The reason why I decided to bring this
21:26up now is actually based on a reason
21:28deeper than the ocean.
21:31I’ll explain what that reason is at the
21:32very end of this video.
21:34First, the main point of attention was
21:36definitely US long-term interest rates.
21:39Looking at the 10-year Treasury yield on
21:42a 4-hour chart, it has indeed taken a
21:44sharp dive. It just goes to show that
21:46technical analysis held up here, too.
21:49Last time, I’m sure some of you wondered
21:51why I was explaining it like this.
21:54I’m talking about this rising channel.
21:56The 4-hour rising channel.
21:59I called it a "bearish flag"—something I
22:01mentioned last time—which is a pattern
22:04that appears quite frequently.
22:06To put it simply, what is it?
22:09It’s essentially a range forming within
22:11an upward channel. Meaning, when it
22:13breaks downward, there is a strong
22:15tendency for a bearish trend to follow.
22:17Ultimately, what happens here is a move
22:19that differs from standard Dow theory.
22:22Instead of hitting lower highs on the
22:24way down, it suddenly breaks lower and
22:26triggers a downtrend, which is why I
22:28pointed out this unique movement last
22:30time.
22:33The issue isn't just that stocks are
22:35falling; I’m saying the danger lies in
22:37the fact that interest rates are
22:39plummeting while stocks are falling.
22:42I’ll say this many times. The blue line
22:44here is what I’m referring to.
22:47It’s the weekly stock chart, and we’ve
22:49certainly had phases where the market
22:51underwent corrections before.
22:54But back then, interest rates were
22:56actually rising.
22:58They didn't fall.
22:59However, when a real recession hits—and
23:02I say this every time—they both fall at
23:04the same time. Stock prices and interest
23:07rates fall simultaneously. What’s
23:09happening is that investors have fled to
23:11U.S. Treasurys.
23:13It means the capital was shifted into
23:15U.S. Treasurys.
23:17That’s simply what it comes down to.
23:19During previous market corrections,
23:21those minor pullbacks, interest rates
23:23didn’t go down.
23:25But now, interest rates are falling
23:27rapidly. Even on the weekly chart, we
23:30are seeing a streak of bearish candles.
23:32This is exactly why I’m saying it could
23:34be dangerous. So, moving on, here we
23:37have Intel. "Intel Inside"—Intel is
23:39inside. I really think that was a clever
23:42catchphrase, "Intel is inside." It's "
23:45Intel Inside," isn't it?
23:47The point is, these are Intel PCs.
23:51Which one do you use for your computer?
23:53Is it AMD, or is it Intel? That’s the
23:55question. Most of you probably use Intel
23:58, right? It’s an IT company with that
24:00much market share. It’s a so-called
24:02semiconductor company. They haven't done
24:04anything wrong.
24:05Their market share hasn’t dropped at all
24:07.
24:10If you ask why such a solid company is
24:13crashing when Intel has done nothing
24:15wrong, if I had to sum it up in one word
24:17, it’s the AI bubble.
24:21Because of the AI bubble, the cost of
24:23semiconductors used around the CPU has
24:26gone up.
24:27The prices have increased, that's what
24:29it is. It’s still shocking even now.
24:31NVIDIA’s GPUs, for example. Graphics
24:34cards, right? They say graphics cards
24:36are now costing over one million yen for
24:39a new one. This is abnormal, isn't it?
24:41One has to ask who would buy this, but
24:43if you ask what's to blame, it's not
24:45Intel's fault.
24:47The AI bubble is to blame. So, if the AI
24:50bubble continues, companies like this—
24:52even Intel—will end up like this. It
24:55means more will start appearing. It
24:57means it has reached its limit.
24:59And this rate of decline—this isn't
25:01really a technical analysis—but looking
25:04at the daily chart, once it formed a
25:06double top in this yellow range, it was
25:08already over.
25:09The only question was when it would
25:11break below the lower limit of the
25:13yellow range, the so-called neckline.
25:15Even if it comes back, even if it rises
25:17and returns, it will definitely face
25:19resistance at this lower limit.
25:21Because after showing a move like this,
25:23there are people who bought in at that
25:25lower limit. Naturally, if it returns,
25:27what will those long-position holders do
25:29? Since they missed their chance to stop
25:31loss, they will sell at breakeven when
25:33it comes back. That is why resistance
25:35inevitably occurs at the lower limit of
25:37this yellow range. And previous crashes
25:39were the same way.
25:41Going back in time, for instance. To the
25:442000 IT bubble shock. I haven't written
25:46it in here on purpose, though. I won't
25:48write it just for Intel.
25:50If I were to intentionally draw a double
25:52top here, it would be here.
25:55Or perhaps here.
25:57And the current situation, if anything,
25:59is more like this yellow range.
26:02Well, even if you call it a double top,
26:05stock prices keep hitting higher highs—
26:07this is Dow theory, yet we're talking
26:09about the Dow. It's Dow theory, yet Dow
26:12theory doesn't even apply here.
26:15What I mean is, stock prices can
26:17suddenly crash from all-time highs. Even
26:19though they were hitting higher highs,
26:21they crashed. And the current state, if
26:23anything, resembles this yellow range.
26:26By breaking below the yellow range, it
26:28caused even more panic selling. It has
26:30broken below the lower limit of the red
26:32range. And even if it comes back, this
26:34is what happens. It's terrifying—when
26:36you think about it now, it really is.
26:38Considering the current situation, even
26:40if it retraced, it didn't even test the
26:43lower limit of the red range; it met
26:45resistance and kept falling, just like
26:47when the IT bubble burst.
26:50And what’s more, the current decline is
26:53actually larger than this overall rate
26:55of decline.
26:57Now, for the gold you’ve been waiting
26:59for.
26:59Regarding gold, let's start with the
27:01daily chart.
27:04The issue with the daily chart was the
27:06possibility that the wave might turn
27:07downward—I asked if there was still more
27:10room to fall, and this is what we're
27:11seeing.
27:13It has broken below the white uptrend
27:15line. It’s playing out exactly as the
27:17technicals suggested, isn't it? It broke
27:20below the white uptrend. In other words
27:22, isn't this a signal of resistance?
27:26If you ask where—it was clearly resisted
27:28at the second peak after hitting the
27:30high; it couldn't test the upper limit
27:32at all.
27:36This kind of double top, especially one
27:38with a lower right shoulder, simply
27:40tends to break below the neckline.
27:45And on top of that, it broke through
27:47yesterday.
27:49With this, the double top is complete.
27:51Now that this large,
27:52lower-right-shoulder double top is
27:54complete, I already mentioned what would
27:56happen next.
27:59I said it would show a price action
28:00toward the next higher-timeframe
28:02light-blue uptrend.
28:08And, if this light-blue uptrend is drawn
28:10strictly—though I wonder about
28:12explaining it while looking at it—if
28:14it’s drawn correctly connecting those
28:16two points, we are effectively looking
28:18at it on the daily chart.
28:24It has broken below it.
28:26It broke through. This is about what it
28:28means—what it really signifies. What
28:30comes next is truly scary. Well, it’s
28:33just a possibility, of course. I also
28:35believe that gold will rise from a super
28:37long-term perspective. But then, what
28:39does that mean? Where is it rising? How
28:42is it rising? Well, the weekly chart is
28:44a bit hard to read. Let's look at the
28:46monthly chart. This is terrifying.
28:49If you ask what kind of axis it's
28:51climbing on, and what the structural
28:53uptrend is, isn't it this?
28:56It’s currently moving up in a structural
28:58uptrend along the white uptrend line.
29:00This movement also holds great
29:02expectations for buyers.
29:04If it crashes, and the crash becomes
29:06catastrophic, being able to buy on the
29:08white uptrend line would be a win.
29:12But it's a matter of "it's certainly
29:14going up, but..." right?
29:16Now, I want you all to think about this
29:18.
29:19It’s not that those who haven't bought
29:21gold until now were fools. That's not it
29:23. Anything that has been part of an "
29:25everything bubble" will eventually see a
29:27pullback. If an everything bubble bursts
29:29, a pullback will come eventually. That
29:31time is now.
29:32So, don't you think this is a bubble?
29:35I’ve been saying over and over, look at
29:38this—above the white uptrend, you can
29:40draw more uptrends: a white uptrend, a
29:43light blue uptrend, a red uptrend.
29:46On the weekly chart, there are even more
29:48, with light blue and white uptrends on
29:50top of that.
29:52With so many bubble-driven uptrends,
29:54don't you think this position is too
29:56high?
29:57It's just that such a movement has
29:59occurred.
30:02I shouldn't laugh, but I’ll explain why
30:04I’m so fired up about gold's price
30:06action at the end of this video.
30:11I will talk about that, but next, let's
30:13look at the daily chart—this was the
30:15white range that formed the double top.
30:17Since it broke out, or rather broke down
30:19, below the white range, as I mentioned
30:22in the free community, it’s heading
30:23toward the lower part of the large
30:25yellow range, around 3940. Well, I said
30:27it would aim for levels like that.
30:31And in the last video, it broke above
30:33this double-top downtrend, the red
30:35downtrend.
30:37But you shouldn't assume it will
30:39necessarily be supported there.
30:41Because it has broken below the higher
30:43timeframe white uptrend, and since it
30:45formed a double top here, you should go
30:47with the long-term trend.
30:48I was saying that higher time frames are
30:50more important. Furthermore, this is
30:52also a short-term matter. I mentioned
30:54this in the free community. Uh, the
30:56white downtrend. It is a fact that it
30:58broke above the white downtrend on the 1
31:00-hour chart. So, it will be supported in
31:02the short term. It is supported by the
31:05purple range, but it met resistance at
31:07the bottom of the green range.
31:09And it was here.
31:11I explained the yellow range on the 15-
31:13minute chart in the free community, but
31:15if it breaks below this, what is the
31:17next target?
31:18It was the bottom of the 3940 yellow
31:21range, wasn't it? It broke through this
31:24perfectly and the decline continued
31:25further.
31:26It's movements like this. Movements like
31:29this, uh, settling at a resistance
31:31yellow range. The people who can capture
31:33these areas are truly the strongest.
31:35Hold until the next target.
31:38And if it breaks through the target,
31:39keep aiming further.
31:41If you ask where it's aiming, didn't I
31:43just say? It's the light blue uptrend.
31:46And now, incredibly, it has broken below
31:48this light blue uptrend, and the price
31:50action has settled on the downside. So,
31:53well, I can't say it's easy from here. I
31:55think it will form a larger range at a
31:57high price zone somewhere.
32:00Looking at the daily chart, it broke
32:02below the light blue uptrend, and it
32:04will form a larger range, like this
32:06yellow one—I don't want to mess with it
32:08, but like this, a larger range.
32:11Creating support somewhere. But even if
32:13a battle happens there, it doesn't mean
32:15it's a perfect support.
32:17The current target, ultimately, is
32:19something you can only tell from the
32:21weekly chart.
32:23For now, it has come to mean it's aiming
32:25for the next, uh, uptrend, right? The
32:28red uptrend, right? Now, the USD/JPY. Uh
32:31, shall we go through this quickly?
32:32Because it has become long. Uh, the
32:34weekly chart. USD/JPY weekly chart. To
32:37state the current situation as it is,
32:39it's this. It has broken through the
32:41white uptrend on the weekly chart. Uh,
32:43it broke through in August 2024. In
32:46other words, this is the start of
32:47resistance, right? This is the beginning
32:50of resistance within the light blue
32:52range.
32:54At this point, we already knew the high
32:56was 162 yen, but just because it broke
32:59above 162 yen slightly back in June or
33:01July of this year, that doesn't mean the
33:04uptrend is continuing.
33:06There’s no way things go exactly
33:08according to the textbook like that.
33:10Because this is why. As a result, if you
33:12let the movement play out for a while,
33:14you see a trend within the shorter
33:16timeframe, specifically within this
33:18light blue range. Yes, the red uptrend.
33:21It broke below this. Looking at it on
33:23the weekly chart, the fact that it broke
33:25below is a big deal.
33:28This means that it began to be resisted
33:30near the upper limit of the light blue
33:32range, and in what form?
33:35It’s clearly visible that it began to be
33:37resisted within the white range.
33:40Isn't trading all about being able to
33:42visualize things like this? Isn't that
33:44how you capture massive profits? Knowing
33:47that something like this can happen.
33:48I've been saying this all along. I told
33:50you before that just because it broke
33:53162 yen, it didn't mean the yen's
33:55depreciation would accelerate. Movements
33:57that break through such red uptrends
33:59will occur. Rather, isn't it the case
34:01that the price has been rising with this
34:03red uptrend as its main axis? Isn't that
34:05why the yen has been weakening? Then,
34:07shouldn't we be cautious about a move
34:09back toward that red uptrend? As for the
34:12price action, it actually broke below it
34:14and created a white range, right? And as
34:16for the current situation, it is
34:18currently being resisted by that red
34:20uptrend. Furthermore, if we expand to
34:22the daily chart, what is the situation
34:24in this battle within the white range?
34:26The highs are still trending upward.
34:28That's why I said that even with the
34:30joint Japan-US intervention, it wouldn't
34:32just break through this white range in a
34:34V-shaped reversal while the highs are
34:36still moving up. It needs to form a
34:38right shoulder, lower the highs, and
34:40break below the 152 yen floor of the
34:43white range to go lower; that's why my
34:45focus is now on this purple range.
34:48Shall we zoom in on the purple range?
34:50I’ve mentioned this purple range in the
34:52free community as well. I said it last
34:54time, too.
34:55You should build your next scenario only
34:57after the purple range is settled.
34:59Meaning, you should wait for it to break
35:01below the lower limit of the purple
35:03range, confirm the resistance, and then
35:06aim for 152 yen. I’ve said this many
35:08times already, so there’s really nothing
35:10more to say about USD/JPY. The current
35:12price movement is falling due to the
35:13sharp drop in interest rates. And since
35:15there’s nothing more to add regarding
35:17the possibility of an appreciation in
35:19the yen as the everything bubble bursts
35:21and the yen carry trade is unwound.
35:24Even so, if I had to say one thing, it's
35:26that you should always wait for a range
35:28to be settled regardless of where it is
35:30.
35:31The reason why is simple.
35:33The whole world doesn't know which way
35:35to go, which is why we’re seeing this
35:37sideways movement, including within the
35:39white range. It’s not a matter of "why
35:41would you be the only one who knows when
35:42the whole world doesn't?" In that case,
35:44it’s fine to wait until it breaks below
35:46levels like this. So, it’s right here.
35:51We’re aiming to catch the trend toward
35:52the next target after it breaks below
35:54the lower limit of the purple range.
35:59Anyway, regarding waiting for a
36:01resolution—I used a harsh tone by saying
36:04"only you," but I’m really just saying
36:06this to myself.
36:09Because, frankly, even President Trump
36:12couldn't do what he wanted with the
36:14dollar or the yen, right?
36:17The whole world doesn't know.
36:19Even world leaders don't know.
36:21If they don't know, neither you nor I
36:24can possibly know.
36:25We only know once a resolution is
36:27reached. That is the only thing that
36:29matters. That concludes the video, and
36:32as I mentioned at the start, this is a
36:34first for me in this video. I think this
36:36is the first time I've said this. It’s
36:38the reason why I asked you to subscribe
36:40and like the video.
36:42I’m assuming my identity might get
36:44revealed here, but I recently met up and
36:46talked with an old colleague from my
36:48past workplace for the first time in
36:50ages. You know how it is, the
36:52conversation eventually turns to money.
36:54With prices going up and inflation like
36:56this, and since we both know what our
36:58salaries were back then, the talk
37:00naturally shifted to how we’re both even
37:02managing to get by if things had stayed
37:04the same.
37:06It becomes a question of how are you
37:08surviving with a family to support,
37:09right?
37:11Then, as we were talking, he mentioned
37:13he was trading gold on margin, and if I
37:15recall correctly, he put up 20 million
37:18yen as collateral to buy it.
37:21Gold prices, that is. He put in that 20
37:24million because he was told that if it
37:26hits 5,000 dollars, it would turn into
37:28100 million. That was the pitch from a
37:30sales rep, so he went and did a gold
37:32margin trade at a brokerage firm.
37:35Then, in the middle of that conversation
37:37, he actually brought up this very
37:40channel, Shimauma FX University.
37:43Obviously, I’ve never told anyone about
37:46these activities, nor is there any
37:48reason to, so hearing my own channel
37:50name from him made my heart skip a beat
37:52—or rather, it made my blood run cold.
37:57I mean, think about how I’ve been
37:59analyzing gold here, and this is someone
38:01who actually threw 20 million yen into
38:03it.
38:05Even though this channel just reports
38:07the market environment as it is, since
38:09I’ve honestly said things like gold
38:11might drop—which is the exact opposite
38:13of what he was hoping for—I thought I
38:15was going to be torn to shreds.
38:18He told me that story, and of course, in
38:21the flow of the conversation, he had no
38:23idea that I was the one behind it.
38:27But he did mention, and he said this
38:29when we met too, that the things being
38:31said and even the voice sounded familiar
38:33to him.
38:35He even joked, “Are you the one doing it
38:37?” or something like that. That was the
38:39extent of it.
38:41But anyway, as for the story of what
38:43happened with him, after the drop in
38:45September and October, he eventually
38:47pulled out of that 20 million yen margin
38:49trade halfway through.
38:53He pulled out, and the reason was that
38:55this channel, Shimauma FX University,
38:57suggested that we might be in this
38:59yellow range.
39:01The lower limit of the big yellow range
39:04, that is, it might hit 3940.
39:08I had been explaining since back then
39:10that if it broke below that, it would be
39:12a disaster, and he heard that and pulled
39:14out halfway through.
39:16From that 20 million yen bet. I never
39:18imagined he was using this niche channel
39:20as a reference. I was so surprised, this
39:23morning. Gold is already in a really bad
39:26state today, isn't it? Since things are
39:28such a mess right now, I contacted him
39:30this morning by email.
39:32He said, and then he called me, that if
39:35he had kept holding it, it really would
39:37have dropped to 3940 dollars.
39:40And if that had happened, all 20 million
39:43yen of his margin would have vanished.
39:46The story is that he cut his losses at
39:49this point, so even after margin fees,
39:51more than half—about 10 million yen—
39:54remained, so he actually wanted to thank
39:56me.
39:58That’s why I’m talking about this right
40:00now at this point. His story.
40:02I knew I’d be exposed the moment I told
40:04this story, so I just went ahead and
40:06told him.
40:08I told him over the phone that I am
40:10Shimauma FX University, and he said he
40:12kind of suspected it, but he was still
40:14surprised.
40:15What’s more, what he said to me actually
40:18made me make up my mind.
40:21He asked me why I’m even running this
40:22channel if I’m not asking people to
40:24subscribe or anything.
40:27Since I do have clear reasons for doing
40:29it, I told him exactly why.
40:32To be honest, it’s about reconfirming my
40:35own market outlook and getting
40:36information from the enthusiasts in the
40:38free community, which is how I’ve been
40:40making profits on individual stocks.
40:46Thanks to all of you, when we discuss
40:48the market, we get a collective opinion
40:50from thousands of people, don't we?
40:55That is my greatest personal gain.
40:58I’ve said that this channel exists to
40:59help me keep myself in check.
41:03Plus, I didn't want to end my life
41:05without becoming someone, or without
41:07being able to share what’s in my own
41:09mind.
41:11Then he told me something quite harsh.
41:14He said, "That’s not an answer.""If you
41:16can get that many subscribers, just grow
41:18it further to gather even more opinions
41:20." He even said, "I might even join in
41:23myself."
41:24He told me I should just grow the
41:25channel until it's said that I’ve become
41:27someone.
41:28When he said that, I thought, "He's
41:30right," which is simple enough, isn't it
41:33? For the first time, I felt motivated
41:35by the numbers on this channel.
41:37So, it feels like I’m only now finally
41:39asking for likes and channel
41:41subscriptions.
41:42That’s the story. I mean, honestly, I
41:45was the one who was surprised.
41:48I even think of this place as eccentric
41:50and niche myself.
41:52I was surprised that there are people
41:54close by who actually watch this channel
41:55. Also, this is a separate topic, but I
41:58need to mention it. Scams are becoming
42:00even more sophisticated now with AI.
42:03Recently, there are fake accounts
42:05providing commentary using my voice and
42:07my phrasing.
42:09Going out of their way to borrow someone
42:11else's face to solicit people is nothing
42:13but a scam.
42:16I really don't want you to fall victim
42:18to scams using this channel as a front.
42:22The free community only accepts members
42:24via the LINE account in the description
42:26.
42:27And since it's a free community, we will
42:29never charge you any fees.
42:31So, there really isn't any defense
42:33measure easier to verify than that.
42:35There are many cyberattacks and legal
42:37scams these days, so if you are ever
42:40asked to pay a fee, just assume it's a
42:42scam. That applies even if it comes from
42:44my account.
42:46The passionate members of our community
42:48are waiting for new expert opinions.
42:50I’m aiming to build an elite group of
42:52passionate enthusiasts. Oh, and you know
42:54, I've talked quite a bit now. I think I
42:56might reuse this closing comment a few
42:59times. Alright, that’s all for today.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of 【中間選挙前ブラックマンデーの恐怖】インテル31%・Google14% 大暴落 GOLD 金価格31% とっくにリーマンショック超え｜米国金利インテル金価格ドル円相場分析 26年10月31日 by シマウマFX大学, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 7,053 words across 1,148 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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