日本株にもブルーウェーブ？ここは買い下がるべきか。3つの買い下がるポイント！ — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Good evening, everyone. This is Akatsuki
2. 0:03Tocon. Thank you for watching my YouTube
3. 0:05channel today, November 4th.
4. 0:07It has been an incredible market. With
5. 0:09the US midterm elections concluding on
6. 0:11November 4th, resulting in the defeat of
7. 0:13President Trump and the Republican Party
8. 0:15in both houses of Congress, I would like
9. 0:17to provide an analysis of the midterm
10. 0:19situation and the market conditions
11. 0:21today. I look forward to your support.
12. 0:23Today's YouTube theme: The "Blue Wave"
13. 0:25situation. Indeed.
14. 0:27Where will the massive volatility and
15. 0:29market energy head now that the
16. 0:31Republican Party, led by President Trump
17. 0:33, has lost both the House and the Senate
18. 0:35?
19. 0:36That is the focus of this commentary.
20. 0:38And today, I will take the courage to
21. 0:40say that we have peaked out. I will also
22. 0:42share my strategy for buying on the way
23. 0:44down. I hope you will watch this YouTube
24. 0:46video until the end. On Akatsuki's
25. 0:48YouTube channel, we cover Japanese and
26. 0:50US stocks, finance, the economy, and
27. 0:52what is happening in the market, along
28. 0:55with Nikkei 225 futures and Nikkei 225
29. 0:57options.
30. 1:00We are active. This is the investment
31. 1:02commentary YouTube channel.
32. 1:04Please be sure to click the like button
33. 1:06and subscribe to the channel.
34. 1:08I am also looking forward to your
35. 1:10subscription to my email newsletter. On
36. 1:12November 14th, I will also talk about "
37. 1:140DTE" options, which are shaping the
38. 1:16price movements and value of this
39. 1:19volatility. Let's meet at Hanzomon on
40. 1:21November 14th. So, with that, let's move
41. 1:24on to today's market commentary. This is
42. 1:26actually a continuation of yesterday's
43. 1:28YouTube video. As I mentioned yesterday
44. 1:31, the Nikkei Stock Average is starting
45. 1:33to show attractive valuations.
46. 1:36With the US midterm election event also
47. 1:38behind us as a catalyst, I am starting
48. 1:40to feel optimistic about the market.
49. 1:43Yes. The Nikkei has begun to show value
50. 1:46, and some selling has been flushed out
51. 1:48. Furthermore, put options have finally
52. 1:50started to decline alongside trading
53. 1:53volume.
54. 1:55Given these three conditions, I will
55. 1:57proceed on the premise that if we buy on
56. 1:59the way down without using leverage, we
57. 2:01might see good results if the market
58. 2:03sentiment improves.
59. 2:07Regarding the Nikkei Stock Average and
60. 2:09Japanese stocks, well, I'd really like
61. 2:12you to look back at yesterday's YouTube
62. 2:14video, but first, look at the Nikkei's
63. 2:16price movement: it dropped to 60,030 yen
64. 2:19and then rebounded to 62,000 yen, which
65. 2:21feels a bit like the trajectory of the
66. 2:232016 presidential election. Back when it
67. 2:26was the battle between Hillary and Trump
68. 2:28, and everyone thought, "Trump is going
69. 2:30to win, he is, he is.""Oh, this is bad.
70. 2:33""Sell it all." The V-shaped recovery
71. 2:35from that kind of panic reminds me a bit
72. 2:38of 2016. TOPIX is down 0.89%.
73. 2:42It briefly dipped below 3,800 points but
74. 2:45avoided a 1%drop. The Nikkei is down
75. 2:481.42%, so the NT ratio is, well, it's
76. 2:51dropping a bit. It's down 0.53%. Growth
77. 2:55stocks are also down 0.57%. Now, the key
78. 2:58point is the price action following
79. 2:59today's midterm election. First, the
80. 3:01Japanese market alone took the hit from
81. 3:03the semiconductor stock decline. Of
82. 3:05course, it did bounce back.
83. 3:10However, when you think of the
84. 3:11Democratic Party's traditional policies
85. 3:13, there's that image of healthcare and,
86. 3:15I don't know, policies for the common
87. 3:18people, but there's been talk about data
88. 3:20center regulations within the party, so
89. 3:22I want to watch how US stocks react to
90. 3:24that today.
91. 3:28In New York, it should probably be fine
92. 3:30. I'm talking about Nasdaq. And the
93. 3:32Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
94. 3:34If nothing happens with these two
95. 3:36indices, I think the reasons will
96. 3:38probably be explained after the fact.
97. 3:41Yes. We should definitely check the
98. 3:43volatility.
99. 3:44It's at 19 today, so compared to the
100. 3:46high volatility yesterday, it has
101. 3:49actually dropped in after-hours trading
102. 3:51.
103. 3:51Japanese interest rates are rising. US
104. 3:54interest rates are, well, moderate. And
105. 3:56gold is rising. Up 3%. This rise in gold
106. 4:00is, well, I'm not sure what to make of
107. 4:02it. Hmm, it's something we can't
108. 4:04overlook.
109. 4:05I can't put it into words well, and I
110. 4:07don't know the exact reason gold is
111. 4:09rising, but I suspect it's anticipating
112. 4:12a drop in interest rates.
113. 4:14In terms of capital movement. Crude oil
114. 4:16prices are down slightly. Bitcoin is up
115. 4:192.6%.
116. 4:23Actually, in my report before the US
117. 4:26midterm elections, I mentioned that if I
118. 4:28were to short anything, Bitcoin might be
119. 4:30it, so I apologize for that call.
120. 4:35It's up 2.63%. Bitcoin is also staging a
121. 4:38V-shaped recovery. Now, how was the
122. 4:40Korean market? Up 0.62%. East Asia
123. 4:44hasn't been that strong, but China is up
124. 4:462%due to the Republican defeat.
125. 4:49It's getting a bit stronger. China's
126. 4:51Shanghai Composite Index is up 2%. Now,
127. 4:54onto Japanese stocks. Oh, right. Before
128. 4:57that, I have another urgent notice
129. 4:59regarding our email newsletter.
130. 5:03Given the current market conditions, Mr.
131. 5:05Honda will be sending out an exclusive
132. 5:07list of 10 stocks he thinks have
133. 5:09bottomed out and are ready to be bought
134. 5:11.
135. 5:13Yesterday, we sent an exclusive report
136. 5:16on the US midterm election situation via
137. 5:18our newsletter.
138. 5:20We provide columns, essays, and
139. 5:22investment information tailored to the
140. 5:24current market through our email
141. 5:26newsletter.
142. 5:28Please feel free to sign up using this
143. 5:30QR code.
144. 5:33So, regarding the situation with
145. 5:35Japanese stocks.
146. 5:37What I found interesting about Japanese
147. 5:39stocks today is a candlestick pattern
148. 5:41called a "battle of forces."
149. 5:44I do this segment every day. Gathering
150. 5:46information from inside and outside the
151. 5:48market. I cover stocks with high market
152. 5:51interest in this segment every day.
153. 5:54We look at today's top gainers, stocks
154. 5:56with strong buying interest, and stocks
155. 5:58that fell today.
156. 6:01Make sure to save this information on
157. 6:03days when there is a crash like this.
158. 6:05If you might forget to save it, please
159. 6:07watch our YouTube channel daily, where I
160. 6:10provide explanations each time. Good
161. 6:12things happen when you keep records
162. 6:14during times of sudden rises and crashes
163. 6:16.
164. 6:17As for the "battle of forces," the
165. 6:19easiest example to see is IHI. Yes. They
166. 6:23are running plenty of corporate
167. 6:24commercials. 7013, rockets and defense.
168. 6:27You can see this "battle of forces"
169. 6:30pattern on the IHI stock chart.
170. 6:33Well, we're seeing significant
171. 6:35resistance to this decline appearing on
172. 6:37the chart.
173. 6:40My definition of a "power line" is
174. 6:42generally when a candlestick forms a
175. 6:44long lower shadow that’s about three
176. 6:46times the daily price movement,
177. 6:48especially if it’s a bullish candle.
178. 6:53The longer that shadow is compared to
179. 6:55the daily average, the more I consider
180. 6:57it a power line.
181. 7:00I’d like to scale into buying IH here,
182. 7:02but we obviously need to keep a close
183. 7:04eye on corporate earnings as well.
184. 7:07Yes. But there are many stocks like this
185. 7:09. The Nikkei Stock Average is the same,
186. 7:12but Mitsubishi Corporation is also
187. 7:14extremely strong.
188. 7:17Looking at the individual stock price
189. 7:19movement, Mitsubishi Corp is up 7%due to
190. 7:22its earnings, with a massive candlestick
191. 7:24that completely engulfs the highs of
192. 7:27September, October, and July, while also
193. 7:29covering the lows from October, August,
194. 7:32and even July.
195. 7:36It’s a stock worth watching, and many
196. 7:38others like it are emerging.
197. 7:42JR Central, and, well, land and air
198. 7:44transport—Japan Airlines, JR Central,
199. 7:47and the other JR companies—feel like
200. 7:50they’re being chosen by the market as
201. 7:52defensive sectors and safe havens for
202. 7:55capital.
203. 7:57Japan Airlines is up 4%. Personally, I
204. 8:00don’t think air transport is very
205. 8:02well-suited for investment. The airline
206. 8:04industry has high costs and high labor
207. 8:06expenses.
208. 8:08Also, I don’t think they have much
209. 8:10potential for a massive breakout.
210. 8:12Maybe during the COVID shock, it was
211. 8:14different. Yes. I just don’t get the
212. 8:16sense that they can create a major
213. 8:18market rally. Yeah. I think land
214. 8:20transport still has some potential,
215. 8:21though. Yeah. They own real estate,
216. 8:24after all. Yeah. Also, pharmaceutical
217. 8:26stocks are rising too. Yeah.
218. 8:30But today, I really want to focus on
219. 8:32these power lines, including the one for
220. 8:35IH.
221. 8:37Yeah. Pharmaceuticals are also up about
222. 8:402%.
223. 8:42So, I’ve put together five key points
224. 8:44for today’s stock market in my own way.
225. 8:46I hope you find this useful for your
226. 8:48investment reference. Thank you for your
227. 8:50time. Well, a "Blue Wave"—I almost
228. 8:52rolled my tongue saying that—a Blue Wave
229. 8:55.
230. 8:56The American people have effectively
231. 8:58said "no" to President Trump’s excessive
232. 9:01policies.
233. 9:02A Blue Wave. And certainly, the
234. 9:04situation in Iran as well. Yeah.
235. 9:07It’s been called a war without a cause,
236. 9:10and I wondered why here, but President
237. 9:12Trump has also made remarks
238. 9:13acknowledging the Iran conflict as a
239. 9:15factor in his defeat.
240. 9:19It seems the news of the Democrats
241. 9:21winning both the Senate and the House
242. 9:23has been conveyed.
243. 9:25Yes. It has held onto the 200-day moving
244. 9:27average. That is, Japanese stocks.
245. 9:30And it refused to break below last
246. 9:32month’s low or last week’s low.
247. 9:35On a closing price basis. When both of
248. 9:38these points appear simultaneously on
249. 9:40the Nikkei Stock Average chart, I think
250. 9:42you should just sell. Just sell and
251. 9:44prepare for a decline, so that is my
252. 9:46first point. And the second point is
253. 9:48that the Nikkei 225 has started to show
254. 9:51signs of being overvalued. Yes.
255. 9:53Third, since the trading volume exceeded
256. 9:5610 trillion yen, I think using leverage
257. 9:58is dangerous.
258. 10:00Like margin buying. However, starting to
259. 10:02buy actual stocks.
260. 10:05For buying from this autumn through
261. 10:07winter, instead of buying all at once,
262. 10:09maybe buying on the way down—building a
263. 10:12position gradually—is the way to go.
264. 10:15Yes. I think there are signs of
265. 10:17overvaluation.
266. 10:19As for why this Nikkei overvaluation has
267. 10:21emerged, to repeat what I said in
268. 10:23yesterday’s YouTube video, looking at
269. 10:25earnings yield, risk premium, EPS, and
270. 10:28PER, I think it’s about time to start
271. 10:30buying on the way down.
272. 10:33And the gold market is also heating up.
273. 10:37The gold market, anticipating future
274. 10:39U.S. interest rate cuts, had been
275. 10:41slumping; the fact that gold was down
276. 10:43means portfolios were damaged,
277. 10:45semiconductor stocks were damaged, and
278. 10:47commodities were damaged too.
279. 10:51The fact that this gold market is
280. 10:53heating up suggests that a slightly
281. 10:55positive influence on semiconductor
282. 10:57stocks may be emerging when considering
283. 10:59the overall portfolio.
284. 11:02So, by looking at the peak-out of put
285. 11:04options, well, market bottoms and tops
286. 11:06are always preceded by movements in
287. 11:08options.
288. 11:10It’s not stock prices, not indices, not
289. 11:13stocks that move first, but options; I
290. 11:15believe this is true for both US and
291. 11:18Japanese stocks, so I’d like to discuss
292. 11:20that peak-out as well.
293. 11:22And this is something I would like you
294. 11:24to save.
295. 11:25This is the ranking of Japanese stocks
296. 11:27that rose despite the Nikkei Average
297. 11:30falling by 3,000 yen.
298. 11:33I believe the next leader stocks will
299. 11:35emerge from this list.
300. 11:39The idea is that from here, we will see
301. 11:41the next stocks to rise, or what I call
302. 11:44"crash-proof" stocks—those that either
303. 11:46fall less during a crash or are
304. 11:48unaffected by the downturn.
305. 11:51Yes. Nikkei down 3,000 yen. And here are
306. 11:54the stocks that fell today during the
307. 11:56Nikkei's 3,000 yen drop. Well, these are
308. 11:58weak stocks, aren't they? Yeah. I think
309. 12:01this is a ranking of damaged stocks. Yes
310. 12:03.
311. 12:06Now, today's ranking of stocks with
312. 12:08strong buying interest—meaning, from the
313. 12:10unstable market opening this morning to
314. 12:13the close, including this rebound, these
315. 12:15are the stocks that remained strong
316. 12:17until the end.
317. 12:21Thinking in terms of just today's price
318. 12:23movement, not the previous day's, I
319. 12:25believe the next market leaders will
320. 12:27come from here as well.
321. 12:30Yes. Please, make sure to save this.
322. 12:32Well, in any case, I believe you should
323. 12:34enter market crashes mechanically.
324. 12:36Emotions get in the way. And your
325. 12:38positions, the positions you hold, get
326. 12:40in the way. That is why you must prepare
327. 12:42for a crash, completely setting aside
328. 12:45both emotions and positions. Prepare for
329. 12:47surges as well. Prepare for both rises
330. 12:49and falls. In short, self-discipline—
331. 12:52disciplining your own emotions—is
332. 12:54extremely important in this investment,
333. 12:56or rather, in this world of the
334. 12:58investment game.
335. 13:00And I believe the only investment
336. 13:02product that allows you to discipline
337. 13:04the market and discipline yourself is
338. 13:07Nikkei 225 options trading.
339. 13:09I talked about NT trades yesterday. I've
340. 13:11completed the procedure. Selling at
341. 13:1362,800 yen and buying Topix futures in
342. 13:16reverse. Well, with this kind of market
343. 13:18decline, you can also perform arbitrage
344. 13:20.
345. 13:22If you have many market strategies, even
346. 13:25if a crash or an AI-driven market slump
347. 13:27occurs, just remembering this NT trade
348. 13:29will serve as a useful tool.
349. 13:32I've taken profits here. Turning a crash
350. 13:34into a profit opportunity. That is the
351. 13:36concept of dual-wielding stocks and
352. 13:38options. If you only invest in stocks, a
353. 13:40crash causes the valuation of your
354. 13:42holdings to shrink.
355. 13:44Especially with leverage, you often end
356. 13:47up having to sell due to margin calls.
357. 13:51Since this often happens right when the
358. 13:53market bottoms out and creates a huge
359. 13:55mental burden, the way forward is to
360. 13:57dual-wield stocks and options. Currently
361. 14:00, in the Akatsuki course, we are holding
362. 14:03puts at 60,500, 58,000, and 56,000 yen.
363. 14:06It is, so to speak, insurance in case we
364. 14:09break below the July lows. Yes.
365. 14:12Insurance for if we break below that
366. 14:13level. Yes.
367. 14:16Because we have entered these option
368. 14:17trades, we aren't afraid of a stock
369. 14:19market crash.
370. 14:21And, entering the stock market—well, the
371. 14:23timing of such entries—also becomes
372. 14:25psychologically easier with this mindset
373. 14:28. Yes. It is precisely because options
374. 14:30trading exists that we can smile through
375. 14:32our stock investments. With stocks alone
376. 14:34, you can only choose to bet on rising
377. 14:36or falling, but with option combinations
378. 14:38, we can even make market declines part
379. 14:40of our strategy, as we are doing in the
380. 14:43Akatsuki course. It looks something like
381. 14:45this. This is a broken-wing butterfly;
382. 14:47it's not a standard long butterfly
383. 14:49strategy, but one where you keep profits
384. 14:51even if the market falls. Yes. I'll just
385. 14:54touch on this briefly today and move on
386. 14:56. Yes. And, here is an article from the
387. 14:59Nikkei newspaper. Open interest in
388. 15:0160,000 yen put options for the Nikkei
389. 15:03Stock Average is surging.
390. 15:05That Nikkei article came out on November
391. 15:082nd, just yesterday.
392. 15:10Open interest in put options is
393. 15:12increasing; it's up even for November.
394. 15:14It’s up by about 8,000 contracts. And
395. 15:17December puts are also, well, increasing
396. 15:19quite a bit. With a combined total of
397. 15:2126,357 contracts for November and
398. 15:24December, that’s a 20%increase in put
399. 15:26options—insurance against a downturn—
400. 15:29over the last three weeks, which makes
401. 15:32people think, "Wow, that's scary."
402. 15:35I think it leads to the idea that
403. 15:37everyone might be aiming for the 60,000
404. 15:39yen level. That is precisely why I
405. 15:41believe it reversed today. Yes.
406. 15:43When an article like this comes out, it
407. 15:45might be better to think the opposite.
408. 15:48Now, let's take a look at the situation
409. 15:50for November put options.
410. 15:53The November SQ, the second week of
411. 15:55November, is exactly when the finale of
412. 15:58Mercury retrograde and Venus retrograde
413. 16:00begins. Uh, ends. It becomes the finale
414. 16:03. Not ends. It becomes the 60,000 yen
415. 16:06put option. Look at this long upper
416. 16:08shadow.
417. 16:12Isn't it the exact opposite of the IHI
418. 16:14chart?
419. 16:17IHI looked like this.
420. 16:19No, maybe I should draw it more like
421. 16:22this. Yeah. A long shadow. But the put
422. 16:25option has a long upper shadow.
423. 16:27It looks like this.
424. 16:29And what’s more, it couldn't break above
425. 16:31the recent high for the put option and
426. 16:33fell.
427. 16:35Yes. Based on today's closing price, all
428. 16:38of this essentially evaporated—1,600 yen
429. 16:41, oh, wait, about 600, 700, 800, 900,
430. 16:441,000, 1,100, 1,200, 1,300, 1,400 yen.
431. 16:47Yeah.
432. 16:49The upper shadow means the need for put
433. 16:51options—insurance against a drop—spiked
434. 16:54, but then they were quickly sold off.
435. 16:57Yeah. Open interest is increasing. So, I
436. 17:00think many put options were likely
437. 17:02closed out. Conversely, you could say
438. 17:04this rebound was fueled by the unwinding
439. 17:06of short put options. Put options. Well
440. 17:09, just this much. Moreover, the trading
441. 17:11volume was the highest ever for these
442. 17:14November puts.
443. 17:16Volume, the volume increased. And with
444. 17:18that upper shadow, it feels like a top
445. 17:21has been formed. When looking at this
446. 17:23kind of stock chart, you probably think
447. 17:25that one market cycle has surely come to
448. 17:27an end, right? That’s fine. That’s fine
449. 17:30. I think that intuition is correct. You
450. 17:32can apply that to the options market,
451. 17:34the Nikkei 225, and Japanese stocks—
452. 17:36using it as an essence of the market or
453. 17:39as a tool in your trading repertoire—
454. 17:41that’s what options trading is. Well,
455. 17:43including these aspects, I’d like to
456. 17:45approach this with the idea of "buying
457. 17:47on dips." That’s our investment strategy
458. 17:50moving forward. Mr. Trump has cut off
459. 17:52aid to Israel and faced criticism from
460. 17:54Democratic candidates in the midterm
461. 17:56elections. I see, makes sense. He is
462. 17:59ending 630 billion yen in support by the
463. 18:01end of the year. Yes.
464. 18:03Right.
465. 18:04Well, the S&P 493 has surpassed the "
466. 18:06Magnificent Seven" tech giants, with
467. 18:08profit growth rates rising for the first
468. 18:11time in four years, broadening the base
469. 18:13of the stock rally. There was an article
470. 18:15about that in the Nikkei newspaper. Yes
471. 18:17. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks.
472. 18:20And 7 of them are the Magnificent Seven
473. 18:22.
474. 18:23Magnifi...Magnificent. Not Magnifint.
475. 18:26Magnificent. Oh well, never mind.
476. 18:30This point is that the profit growth
477. 18:33rate of the other 493 stocks is now
478. 18:35higher than that of these 7 giant
479. 18:37companies.
480. 18:40Well, I think this is a very good piece
481. 18:42of positive news for the stock market.
482. 18:45The EPS growth rate is also high. Yes.
483. 18:4839, is it?
484. 18:49I’d like to introduce NT trading another
485. 18:52time.
486. 18:53Now, let’s look at the Nikkei futures
487. 18:55chart. Yes, it was a day where it rose
488. 18:582,000 yen from the lows.
489. 19:00Right here, the line I’ve drawn is the
490. 19:02low from July.
491. 19:04Yes.
492. 19:06Well, I calculated that the time spent
493. 19:08at this July low was only about 60
494. 19:10minutes; it stayed at this low for 60
495. 19:12minutes before breaking through it.
496. 19:16As I mentioned in today's YouTube theme
497. 19:19about buying on dips, I think it’s fine
498. 19:21to keep buying on dips as long as the
499. 19:24stock index, the Nikkei 225, doesn't
500. 19:26fall below today’s low.
501. 19:28Buying on dips aside from that. Yeah.
502. 19:30And if it breaks that level, I think
503. 19:32it’s fine to just dump it. Yeah. That’s
504. 19:35what I think. Yes.
505. 19:37Now, let's look at the US stock price
506. 19:39action everyone is watching. It’s a bit
507. 19:41concerning, isn't it? Yes.
508. 19:43So, I’d like to keep a close eye on it
509. 19:46again today.
510. 19:47As for US stocks, the Dow has rebounded
511. 19:50and is up 250 dollars, while the Nikkei
512. 19:53futures are at 62,810 yen. So today, the
513. 19:57Japanese stock valuations haven't been
514. 19:59updated yet, have they? Probably not.
515. 20:02Uh, P/E ratio...
516. 20:05How are the valuations? They aren't out
517. 20:07yet, right? Well, based on yesterday's
518. 20:09situation, it was 3,959 yen. The
519. 20:10earnings yield was 6.28. And even on an
520. 20:13index basis, the earnings yield is 5,
521. 20:15and EPS is growing. Well, since those
522. 20:18valuations are out, I'm buying the dip.
523. 20:20That's the way I'm thinking about it.
524. 20:23So, if I'm wrong again, I'll be sure to
525. 20:25apologize.
526. 20:27With that, this has been the Akatsuki
527. 20:29Toshitoshi YouTube channel for November
528. 20:324th, covering a wild day in the market.
529. 20:34Please continue to support Akatsuki as
530. 20:37well. Thank you all for watching today's
531. 20:39YouTube video until the end.
532. 20:41Please make sure to hit the like button
533. 20:43, subscribe to the channel, and sign up
534. 20:45for our email newsletter.
535. 20:47Thank you for watching until the very
536. 20:49end.
537. 20:50See you tomorrow.