[주식] 261021 탄력 떨어지는 IT, 큰 시세는 이쪽에서 — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:02Hello. It's Han News again today. Today
- 0:04is Wednesday. Looking at the U.S.
- 0:06market yesterday, it was just okay. The
- 0:08Dow rose about 1%, but the S&P and
- 0:10Nasdaq ended near flat, and the
- 0:13Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which
- 0:15has the most direct impact on us
- 0:18recently, was at -0.29%, so it also
- 0:20ended near flat. As you know, the
- 0:22domestic market saw a sharp drop
- 0:24yesterday as "Electronics" shares
- 0:25melted down, dragging the composite
- 0:27index with them; that's related to U.S.
- 0:29semiconductors, like Micron for example
- 0:30. The decline in Micron was already
- 0:32reflected yesterday while our market
- 0:33was in session. In other words, since
- 0:36Micron and the Philly Semiconductor
- 0:38Index started off significantly lower
- 0:40when the U.S. market opened yesterday
- 0:41but managed to push back up by the
- 0:43close, even though it ended flat, we
- 0:45should see it as a recovery from our
- 0:46perspective. Because it had started off
- 0:49with a sharp drop in the morning. And
- 0:51today in our domestic market, the KOSPI
- 0:53closed up 3%, and the KOSDAQ was up
- 0:54about 1.38%. Both markets were decent,
- 0:57and "Electronics" climbed quite a bit
- 0:58during the session today. It was up
- 1:01about 8-9%around 11 a.m. before giving
- 1:03back some gains with a long upper wick,
- 1:06but it still managed a respectable rise
- 1:08. "Electronics" held up well, and even
- 1:11though the KOSPI rose 3%, there were
- 1:13fewer than 400 gainers at 370, while
- 1:15there were 490 decliners, nearly 500.
- 1:18So the KOSPI today was quite
- 1:20concentrated, and while the KOSDAQ's 1%
- 1:22gain isn't huge, it was still a decent
- 1:24performance. Yes. There were 800
- 1:26advancing stocks. Since there were 800
- 1:28decliners as well, we have to assume
- 1:30there was concentration in specific
- 1:31sectors on the KOSDAQ as well. Looking
- 1:33at today's closing prices, the stocks
- 1:35that moved stronger than the market
- 1:37were semiconductors, bio, and solar—
- 1:39well, more accurately, you can't say
- 1:42solar rose, but there are the space, AI
- 1:44, and data center related stocks. These
- 1:46are found in solar and secondary
- 1:48batteries, and these areas showed a
- 1:50picture of strong gains. Also, there's
- 1:52no real need to cover oil refining, but
- 1:54oil refining was fairly decent in
- 1:56today's market. And as for theme stocks
- 1:59, two were decent; aerospace started
- 2:00the morning with a strong gap up but
- 2:02gave back some gains, but there was
- 2:04definitely an issue in aerospace. After
- 2:07the U.S. market closed yesterday,
- 2:09SpaceX announced its earnings, and they
- 2:11were unusually good. I will explain in
- 2:13a moment why I say they are unusual.
- 2:16And the second theme is the Ukraine war
- 2:18ending theme stocks. It’s already
- 2:21been over four full years and we're
- 2:23heading toward five, and with President
- 2:24Trump facing the U.S. midterm elections
- 2:26on November 3rd, there are only two
- 2:28weeks left. So the hottest topic right
- 2:31now is that gasoline and diesel prices
- 2:32are just too expensive. In the U.S.,
- 2:34gasoline and diesel prices are rising
- 2:37faster than WTI crude oil. Since this
- 2:40directly impacts the election, it seems
- 2:42Trump is trying to end the Ukraine war
- 2:44quickly, as it is one of the main
- 2:46factors driving up these fuel prices.
- 2:49He is putting immense pressure on
- 2:50Ukraine. So, with Ukraine
- 2:52reconstruction stocks surging strongly
- 2:54today, once we check those, we'll have
- 2:56pretty much covered everything for
- 2:58today. And since there are a few
- 3:01individual stocks that spiked today
- 3:03with a high potential for further gains
- 3:05, we'll go over those as well to wrap
- 3:07up today's discussion. The market
- 3:10lately feels like a game of Whac-A-Mole
- 3:11. It gets pushed up one day, crushed
- 3:13the next, and then climbs back up again
- 3:15; this cycle keeps repeating, and the
- 3:17volatility in the composite index is so
- 3:19high it’s moving almost like a penny
- 3:21stock. Honestly, even KOSDAQ penny
- 3:22stocks don't move like the composite
- 3:24index; it really is a peculiar market.
- 3:26And indices always have cycles where
- 3:28they move well and move poorly, right?
- 3:31But this current cycle is just getting
- 3:33a bit prolonged. Also, looking at the
- 3:35strong sectors I mentioned earlier,
- 3:37it's fortunate that many of them have
- 3:39high retail investor participation, and
- 3:41we were holding most of the stocks that
- 3:43were part of today's strong sectors.
- 3:46Most of you probably were as well. And
- 3:48looking at the composite index, you
- 3:50have to watch both KOSPI and KOSDAQ
- 3:52together, but seeing how they move is
- 3:53honestly frustrating. The volatility is
- 3:55high in both directions, but it’s not
- 3:57an upward trend; it’s just the same
- 3:59pattern of being pushed down and pulled
- 4:02back up—for example, KOSPI closed up
- 4:041.7%the other day, down 3.77%yesterday,
- 4:06and up 3%today. I’m not sure what
- 4:08they are doing, but the good news is,
- 4:09if you compare KOSPI and KOSDAQ, I’ve
- 4:11always said that KOSDAQ is the one that
- 4:13has broken through its box range before
- 4:15. So, you have to consider that this is
- 4:17where the trend is definitely alive.
- 4:20They might look the same in the broad
- 4:21picture, but they are not the same
- 4:22thing. Since it has broken through
- 4:25there once before, if it rebounds,
- 4:26it’s highly likely to gain more
- 4:28momentum. They are somewhat similar,
- 4:30but in any case, you should look toward
- 4:32KOSDAQ rather than KOSPI, and
- 4:33small-to-mid caps over large caps, and
- 4:35as for whether Korea is the only one in
- 4:36such a mess, the answer is yes. You
- 4:39might think this is unique to our
- 4:40country, but if you overlay the KOSPI
- 4:42with the Taiwan Weighted Index or the
- 4:44Nikkei, the downturns look identical.
- 4:46But the important thing is that their
- 4:48trends haven't broken. For reference,
- 4:50look at the Taiwan Weighted Index as of
- 4:51October 6 th—it wasn't that long ago.
- 4:53They hit a record high just two weeks
- 4:54ago before pulling back. We were pushed
- 4:57down early without any rebound before
- 4:58falling further, whereas they hit a
- 5:00record high, and the Nikkei, while not
- 5:01at a record high, broke through the
- 5:0340,000-point mark before coming back
- 5:05down. It's quite disappointing when you
- 5:07look at it this way; comparing us to
- 5:09Taiwan, there are actually many
- 5:11similarities between our countries. The
- 5:13fact that we are both export-driven
- 5:14nations. And that the semiconductor
- 5:15industry serves as the largest pillar
- 5:17for both economies. Even in the stock
- 5:19market, both countries have a very high
- 5:21market capitalization weighting in the
- 5:22semiconductor sector. Japan is often
- 5:25compared to us, but they aren't a
- 5:27semiconductor-led nation. So, it's hard
- 5:29to compare directly with them, and we
- 5:31should be comparing with Taiwan instead
- 5:33; for reference, the weight of the
- 5:34semiconductor sector, including TSMC,
- 5:36in the Taiwanese market is significant.
- 5:38I mean, we also have an incredibly high
- 5:39weighting for Samsung and SK Hynix. In
- 5:40the KOSPI. But Taiwan's is even higher.
- 5:42Despite that, they still managed to
- 5:45reach record highs. Of course, if you
- 5:47look at their business models, they
- 5:49focus on system semiconductors and
- 5:50foundries while we focus on memory, so
- 5:52it's hard to say they're identical, but
- 5:54given the industrial structures are so
- 5:56similar, it's very disappointing that
- 5:57we are performing so much worse than
- 5:59Taiwan. So, in any case, I think that
- 6:02area needs some improvement. The index
- 6:05moves too much like a penny stock; of
- 6:07course, Taiwan also saw a sharp drop
- 6:09due to the massive decline in the U.S.
- 6:11memory and semiconductor sectors, but
- 6:13look at the scale of their drop. Can
- 6:16you compare it to Korea? Our market is
- 6:18just not providing enough defense. I
- 6:20think there needs to be some kind of
- 6:22structural solution, whether at the
- 6:24policy level or through new regulations
- 6:25. Whenever you look at our country, the
- 6:27structure is always like that. It’s
- 6:30not just this time for the KOSPI; if
- 6:31you look at the cycle from a few years
- 6:33ago or even the cycle before that, our
- 6:35market is known for being explosive
- 6:37when it goes up. When our market rises,
- 6:39there are actually quite a few days
- 6:41where the KOSPI composite index records
- 6:42the highest growth rate in the world.
- 6:44This hasn't just happened recently or
- 6:46this time around; it was true in the
- 6:472020 cycle and even in previous cycles
- 6:49—the KOSPI often proudly takes first
- 6:51place in growth during upturns, but the
- 6:52problem is that it hits rock bottom
- 6:54during downturns. To put it positively,
- 6:57it means it's easy to make money when
- 6:59it goes up, but because the rally is
- 7:01driven by such a frenzy, it also
- 7:03becomes a problem when it falls.
- 7:05Looking at Samsung Electronics and
- 7:06Hynix, there was a decent rebound
- 7:08attempt this morning, with Samsung
- 7:10Electronics 'high for today up by 0.9%.
- 7:12Hynix is also around 0.9%. So, they
- 7:14have risen a lot, and while it's good
- 7:15that the volatility—the movement up
- 7:17and down—is high, the direction
- 7:18itself isn't clearly established, so
- 7:20wouldn't it be right to see their
- 7:21momentum as having weakened? And when
- 7:24you look at the strength of
- 7:25mid-to-small cap stocks rising while
- 7:26these are resting, you can definitely
- 7:28see that their strength has become
- 7:29significantly stronger. We'll have to
- 7:31keep watching, but for now, it seems
- 7:33the flow of supply and demand has
- 7:35shifted to other sectors. Looking at
- 7:38the U.S. stock market first, when you
- 7:39see the semiconductors dropping
- 7:41significantly the other night and then
- 7:42rebounding slightly, it might look like
- 7:43they've risen a lot, but they haven't.
- 7:46They fell so much that the movement is
- 7:48almost like a dead cat bounce—just
- 7:50the extent of dead stocks jumping up
- 7:51once. It's exactly like this. It's hard
- 7:54to say it has risen a lot just by
- 7:55seeing it go up once while it was
- 7:56trending down, right? And looking at
- 7:59the U.S. market yesterday, it was very
- 8:01distinct; even though the composite
- 8:02index and the Philadelphia
- 8:03Semiconductor Index were flat, there
- 8:05were clearly strong performers. It was
- 8:08clear that in the U.S. yesterday, this
- 8:09one was the leader. The one I can
- 8:11accurately identify as such was Bio.
- 8:13U.S. healthcare stocks are currently
- 8:14hitting a lot of new highs. Some broke
- 8:16through to new highs yesterday, which
- 8:18we'll look at shortly, and the logical
- 8:21reason for why they are moving like
- 8:23that is...you see the Korea Investment&
- 8:25Securities homepage here? It explains
- 8:27it well here, and if you look at the
- 8:29bottom of today's morning briefing, it
- 8:30shows up. Healthcare is bound to be
- 8:32talked about. It says here that the
- 8:33leader yesterday was healthcare. Eli
- 8:35Lilly was up 3.4%, UnitedHealth was up
- 8:373%, which was a stronger rise than the
- 8:39S&P 500's 0.28%or flat performance.
- 8:42Reuters reported that healthcare led
- 8:44the sector gains, and that buying is
- 8:46already shifting to other sectors amid
- 8:48caution over tech stock valuations and
- 8:50profit-taking issues. What does this
- 8:53point to? The confirmed factor is
- 8:54sectoral rotation. The reason this
- 8:56comes up is that the perspective on
- 8:57healthcare and bio in our country
- 8:59differs from the perspective in the
- 9:01U.S. Traditional pharmaceutical
- 9:02companies in the U.S. have a very long
- 9:04history and there are many large-cap
- 9:06stocks that translate that into actual
- 9:08earnings. Representative stocks like
- 9:09that in our country would be Samsung
- 9:11Biologics and Celltrion. Samsung
- 9:12Biologics and Celltrion are the
- 9:13healthcare stocks that show actual
- 9:14numbers, aren't they? So, since they
- 9:16move more like manufacturing companies,
- 9:17I think that’s why Sam-Ba and
- 9:18Celltrion are rising well, and there
- 9:20are also biotech firms in the US. But
- 9:22even among those tech stocks, some are
- 9:24hitting new highs. Healthcare is just
- 9:26that strong in the US right now. So,
- 9:29they aren’t viewed as those "all-in
- 9:31on drug development or bust" types of
- 9:34stocks, but rather as defensive
- 9:36manufacturing businesses. In the US,
- 9:39that is. Think about it simply: if
- 9:42you’re unwell and need to take
- 9:43medicine, you don’t just stop taking
- 9:45it because the economy is bad or your
- 9:47salary has been cut. So, since there
- 9:51are many stocks in the US seen as
- 9:53defensive, we can see many of them
- 9:55hitting new highs, and there’s a lot
- 9:58of talk that money from global hedge
- 10:00funds, which had flooded into AI, is
- 10:02shifting toward defensive sectors,
- 10:04primarily healthcare. This topic has
- 10:07actually been coming up quite often.
- 10:08Since these stocks didn't drop at all
- 10:09when others were falling recently, and
- 10:11are actually hitting new highs, please
- 10:12keep that in mind. When we look at the
- 10:15statistics of the Korean market
- 10:16compared to US healthcare over the past
- 10:1820 years, the decoupling is at an
- 10:19all-time high, even over such a long
- 10:21time horizon. It's just too large. At
- 10:23the very least, Sam-Ba and Celltrion
- 10:25should see a major rally. Anyway,
- 10:26that’s the situation right now. Now,
- 10:28let’s take a look at the major news
- 10:30from the US one by one. Elon Musk said
- 10:33next year, for every child in the US—
- 10:35demographic statistics say the US child
- 10:37population is 72 million—he would
- 10:39give them one share of SpaceX. When
- 10:41this was announced, the closing price
- 10:43of SpaceX was $ 146. So, per share in
- 10:46Korean Won, that’s roughly between
- 10:48180,000 and 200,000 won. He says he’s
- 10:50going to give that to 72 million people
- 10:51. That amounts to $ 10.5 billion in
- 10:53scale. That’s nearly 15 trillion won,
- 10:55but considering the total value of
- 10:56Musk’s holdings, it’s not actually
- 10:58that much money, but it’s still
- 10:59impressive. I hope things go well so it
- 11:03can be used for children or vulnerable
- 11:05social groups, but anyway, he said
- 11:08he’d spend big. For reference, why is
- 11:11he suddenly giving this away? It’s
- 11:14because of a policy created by
- 11:15President Trump. There’s something
- 11:16called the "Trump Account." The Trump
- 11:18Account. What is it? It’s basically
- 11:21opening an account for every child in
- 11:22the US, where the government receives
- 11:24donations in a sort of matching fund
- 11:25style. A prime example is someone like
- 11:28Michael Dell, the founder of Dell, whom
- 11:30Trump really likes. He brings him along
- 11:31to events all the time. Why is that?
- 11:33Because Dell has donated a massive
- 11:34amount of money. On top of this. So,
- 11:36with the donated money, you have
- 11:37working parents who are employed at
- 11:39companies, right? Then the company
- 11:41where the parent works provides a
- 11:44matching grant. For instance, if they
- 11:46received a donation from the state and
- 11:48distributed about 200,000 won per
- 11:49person. Then the company adds another
- 11:51200,000 won to that. So that would be a
- 11:53total of 400,000 won, right? Per month.
- 11:55If you keep accumulating it like this
- 11:56for 5 or 10 years, or until the
- 11:58children reach adulthood, imagine how
- 11:59huge it would grow with 20 years of
- 12:01compound interest. So the account
- 12:02intended to build a lump sum for kids
- 12:04to use for college later is the Trump
- 12:06account, and he's going to donate to
- 12:07that. Why is he doing this? With the
- 12:09election on November 3rd just around
- 12:11the corner, Musk has gone all-in on the
- 12:12Republican Party. So you can see it as
- 12:15something done for the sake of the
- 12:16election. It’s not really an issue
- 12:18that affects the stock price, but
- 12:20it’s a novel concept, so I wanted to
- 12:21bring it up. And if you check out
- 12:23American communities regarding Jensen
- 12:24Huang recently. Like our country's
- 12:26stock discussion boards, places like
- 12:28Reddit in the U.S. have some very
- 12:30interesting posts. People are cursing
- 12:32Jensen Huang like crazy, calling him a
- 12:34total fraudster and crossing the line
- 12:36with insults; why are they doing that?
- 12:38It's because Jensen made it all like
- 12:40this. I’ve been talking about it, and
- 12:42what’s being discussed in the U.S. is
- 12:44that the business CoreWeave is doing is
- 12:46essentially Neo-Cloud. There have been
- 12:48many talks recently that it might
- 12:49collapse, and every time this comes up,
- 12:50people point to the structure Jensen
- 12:52Huang designed. It’s called a
- 12:54circular economy; I give money to the
- 12:55customer, and the customer uses that
- 12:57money to buy equipment from me, that
- 12:58kind of structure. And what was
- 13:00mentioned today as a satire is that its
- 13:02structure is exactly the same as
- 13:03Myeongryun Jinsa Galbi. When opening a
- 13:05Myeongryun Jinsa Galbi franchise, it
- 13:07costs a lot, and since the person
- 13:09wanting to start it doesn't have the
- 13:11money, the headquarters provides a loan
- 13:12. Then, with the money from the loan,
- 13:14when the person starts the business,
- 13:16they have to pay for interior costs,
- 13:18materials, or franchise fees, right?
- 13:19They pay it back to Myeongryun Jinsa
- 13:21Galbi. And for things like sourcing the
- 13:24meat or various items needed for daily
- 13:26operations. They have to buy those from
- 13:28headquarters anyway, so isn't that a
- 13:29circular economy? So people say the
- 13:31structure of Myeongryun Jinsa Galbi and
- 13:33Nvidia is identical, and it really is.
- 13:35It means they are artificially creating
- 13:37demand. So it works very well at first,
- 13:39but the problem is that if one link in
- 13:40the chain breaks, it leads to a chain
- 13:42reaction of bankruptcies. There has
- 13:44been a lot of talk about this since
- 13:46last year, but recently, stock prices
- 13:48for Micron, the memory sector, and
- 13:49semiconductor equipment have fallen
- 13:51significantly. As those prices drop,
- 13:53people are criticizing Jensen Huang,
- 13:55claiming he’s fueling a bubble, but
- 13:57from the Nvidia CEO's perspective, he
- 13:59obviously has to talk it up. So, at the
- 14:01conference, he went on to say that the
- 14:02next wave of artificial intelligence is
- 14:04physical AI. The leader of physical AI
- 14:06is definitely robotics. You could add
- 14:08autonomous vehicles or robotaxis to
- 14:09that, but robotics is certainly the
- 14:11leader. He’s been giving lip service,
- 14:13saying there will never be another
- 14:14opportunity like this, but the stock
- 14:15price hasn't shown much reaction. So,
- 14:17he’s facing a tremendous amount of
- 14:19backlash. Also, the U.S. administration
- 14:21has banned the use of Chinese DeepSeek
- 14:23products and services within U.S.
- 14:24federal agency systems. This isn't
- 14:26exactly groundbreaking news, as it’s
- 14:28already banned in Korea as well.
- 14:29They're basically banning all Chinese
- 14:31products anyway. Furthermore, at the
- 14:32SEMI global semiconductor equipment and
- 14:34materials association meeting, they
- 14:35stated that global investment in
- 14:36semiconductor equipment will reach
- 14:37roughly 1,000 trillion won over the
- 14:39next four years. With about 150 billion
- 14:42dollars this year, 170 billion next
- 14:43year, 190 billion the following year,
- 14:45and 220 billion in 2028, they are
- 14:47saying that for at least the next three
- 14:49to four years, even if memory peaks out
- 14:51, equipment sales will continue to grow
- 14:53at that pace. While this is good news
- 14:56for semiconductor equipment stocks, the
- 14:57market didn't react very strongly, and
- 14:59the stocks haven't moved much. Reuters
- 15:01reported that President Trump’s
- 15:02approval rating has hit an all-time low
- 15:04. It varies by polling organization,
- 15:06but it is true that it has fallen
- 15:08significantly. It seems they started
- 15:09the war with Iran for no reason at the
- 15:11end of February, reportedly thinking it
- 15:13would end within a few months when they
- 15:15first launched it. They didn't intend
- 15:17to drag it out until the election, but
- 15:18Iran knows President Trump's weaknesses
- 15:20. As the war drags on, Iran understands
- 15:22very well that any bad news related to
- 15:24oil will drive prices up and hit
- 15:26Trump’s approval rating directly, so
- 15:28they are just in "hold" mode. That is
- 15:30the current state of affairs; the
- 15:31approval rating has dropped
- 15:32significantly, and the biggest factor
- 15:34influencing that decline is the current
- 15:35oil price issue. I mentioned this
- 15:36earlier. Gasoline prices in the U.S.
- 15:38have now broken through 6 dollars per
- 15:40gallon. And things like diesel prices
- 15:42as well. But if you look at it, the
- 15:43number considered important in the U.S.
- 15:45is actually 3. 4. The reason is that
- 15:48it’s based on the retail price at gas
- 15:50stations for gasoline and diesel, which
- 15:52Americans use the most. Once it breaks
- 15:544 dollars a gallon, it’s seen as
- 15:55having a direct impact on the
- 15:57president's approval rating, and now
- 15:58there are places where it’s in the
- 16:00high 5-dollar range or even over 6
- 16:02dollars. That’s why the approval
- 16:03rating has taken such a big hit. Please
- 16:04take that into account. Starting
- 16:07tomorrow, there will be a strike at
- 16:08Micron's Taiwan plant, and as expected,
- 16:11the union is demanding 15%of the
- 16:12company's operating profit. In fact,
- 16:15there are almost no precedents
- 16:17worldwide where 15%of operating profit
- 16:19was distributed to employees as a bonus
- 16:20. The precedent was first set by SK
- 16:24Hynix when they agreed to it, though
- 16:26their performance wasn't that great
- 16:28when they made the promise. Suddenly,
- 16:31as the semiconductor cycle exploded,
- 16:33earnings grew exponentially, and
- 16:34employees started receiving 500 million
- 16:35to 1 billion won per person annually.
- 16:38Since it's just the three companies—
- 16:40Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron
- 16:41—when it comes to memory, especially
- 16:43DRAM. Because Hynix employees were
- 16:46taking home so much money, neighboring
- 16:48Samsung Electronics asked if they could
- 16:49have it too, and they eventually got
- 16:51the green light. They are already
- 16:53paying it out. So, now that the Micron
- 16:54union has come forward to demand the
- 16:56same, it's unavoidable. Because of the
- 16:58Hynix precedent, the creation of such a
- 16:59precedent is very significant. So, once
- 17:01it was established, it was accepted
- 17:02here. And now Micron is in a state of
- 17:04demanding it. For reference, since
- 17:07Micron's performance has also improved
- 17:09significantly, they did agree to pay
- 17:11something, but looking at their initial
- 17:14offer, it varied by years of service,
- 17:16but it seemed to be about 40 million
- 17:18won per person. But the union rejected
- 17:21it. They are demanding 15%of operating
- 17:24profit permanently, and since Samsung
- 17:25and Hynix have agreed to pay, it's
- 17:27difficult for them to refuse. The
- 17:29important thing right now is that more
- 17:32than half of all memory semiconductors
- 17:34produced by Micron come from their
- 17:35Taiwan plant. Even though it's an
- 17:37American company, they have almost no
- 17:38fabs in the U.S. That's a bit of a
- 17:39problem for Micron. Anyway, because of
- 17:41this, if their strike drags on, these
- 17:43guys will naturally benefit from the
- 17:44rebound. So, it was said that the
- 17:47strike at Micron's Taiwan plant
- 17:49starting tomorrow played a big role in
- 17:51the rebound of Samsung and Hynix today,
- 17:53but that seems like a superficial
- 17:55reason tacked on; I don't think that's
- 17:57why they went up so strongly today. And
- 18:00among the reports that came out
- 18:01yesterday, there are many tech
- 18:03companies in China. Like Alibaba,
- 18:04ByteDance—that’s TikTok—and
- 18:05Tencent. It was reported that these
- 18:07companies ordered over 3 million units
- 18:10of NVIDIA's new RTX 5800 graphics cards
- 18:12. But the problem is that while they
- 18:14are spending all their money, pouring
- 18:16in 40 to 50 trillion won for an amount
- 18:18of 35 billion dollars, NVIDIA said they
- 18:21can't supply them anyway due to a
- 18:22shortage. Looking at this, the
- 18:24implication is that it's not just
- 18:25memory that's a bottleneck now; we were
- 18:27told that the GPU bottleneck had eased
- 18:29a lot, after all. Supply is relatively
- 18:31smoother compared to memory, they say.
- 18:33But it turns out GPU supply is tight as
- 18:34well. The fact that they can't even
- 18:36sell them because they don't have
- 18:37enough is, in a way, good news. For
- 18:38reference, regarding China, the US
- 18:40Trump administration—you know the GPU
- 18:43memory made by Nvidia? They’ve
- 18:45blocked the sale of high-performance
- 18:47GPU chips to China, so China can’t
- 18:49buy those. So, low-value,
- 18:52lower-performance, or older models have
- 18:54been partially allowed. Looking at it,
- 18:59Nvidia's new RTX 5500 is currently the
- 19:01best chip China can legally import from
- 19:04the US. So, they are forced to bite the
- 19:08bullet and buy these. But even these
- 19:10are in short supply, and now the US is
- 19:12saying they can't provide them. And the
- 19:15key point after the US market closed
- 19:17yesterday was SpaceX's earnings; to cut
- 19:19to the chase, they were excellent. But
- 19:22what was unusual is that the revenue
- 19:24from the AI sector exceeded $ 7.5
- 19:27billion. That is an 830%increase
- 19:29year-on-year, meaning it grew ninefold.
- 19:32Let me repeat, it didn’t just grow by
- 19:3490%, it grew nine times over. In just
- 19:36one year. How did it grow that much? As
- 19:39you know, SpaceX’s original business
- 19:40is launching communication satellites
- 19:42like Starlink and collecting fees from
- 19:43subscribers, or acting as a launch
- 19:45service provider. For example, even our
- 19:48country pays SpaceX to handle many of
- 19:50our launches. And since they launch so
- 19:53cheaply and effectively, even NASA
- 19:55often pays them to perform launches.
- 19:57It’s a business where they charge
- 19:59fees for acting as a launch service,
- 20:00like delivering a package. So, their
- 20:03main pillars were Starlink or launch
- 20:06services, but what’s been added now
- 20:08is AI. Since they merged with xAI,
- 20:12they’ve set up a massive amount of AI
- 20:14data center computing infrastructure
- 20:16for their own AI—you know, the one
- 20:18Musk created, Grok. I’ve used Grok
- 20:21quite a bit, and honestly, I don't get
- 20:23the feeling that its performance is
- 20:25great. But Grok does have its strengths
- 20:27. It’s fun. In what way is it fun? If
- 20:30you tell it to speak to you casually,
- 20:32it just starts swearing at you. So, in
- 20:34that sense, it’s entertaining. But
- 20:37it's hard to call it high-performing;
- 20:39if you compare the latest Grok model to
- 20:42Anthropic’s Claude series or ChatGPT
- 20:445.5 or 6, the comparison is quite stark
- 20:47. Musk knows it too. He honestly admits
- 20:50that Grok is currently lagging behind.
- 20:52Anyway, so it’s just fun, that’s
- 20:53all. The performance is a bit lacking,
- 20:55but they built so many—they have this
- 20:56place called Memphis where they set up
- 20:58a Memphis data center. But they built
- 20:59so much that they have extra left over
- 21:01after running their own Grok. The
- 21:03computing infrastructure, that is. So
- 21:04they said they would sell that surplus
- 21:06to external parties. Seeing this, Meta
- 21:08thought, "Oh, was that a way to sell?"
- 21:10and tried to follow suit. Mark
- 21:12Zuckerberg of Meta said the exact same
- 21:14thing a while ago. They invested
- 21:16heavily to build many data centers, and
- 21:18since they have some computing
- 21:19infrastructure left over, they would
- 21:21rent it out to others. It's just like
- 21:23real estate, receiving rent. So,
- 21:25looking here, the AI division's revenue
- 21:27isn't subscription revenue from Grok.
- 21:30When you look at how companies like
- 21:32OpenAI or Claude grow their revenue,
- 21:34it's usually from subscriptions where
- 21:36people like me pay hundreds of dollars
- 21:38a month, or from token fees paid for
- 21:40extra usage. But for them, this is
- 21:42revenue from renting out computing
- 21:44infrastructure. So, in the end, the
- 21:45model is quite similar to CoreWeave.
- 21:47And this has caused their performance
- 21:49to increase ninefold. This is why
- 21:51people are starting to think that
- 21:53SpaceX is becoming more of an AI
- 21:55company than a satellite company. The
- 21:57AI division has overtaken the
- 21:59telecommunications division, Starlink,
- 22:01to become the company's largest source
- 22:03of revenue. It’s number one in
- 22:04revenue now. Communications used to be
- 22:06number one, but this has surpassed it.
- 22:08It has surpassed it by a wide margin.
- 22:09Looking here, the AI Super Intelligence
- 22:11division brought in $ 7.5 billion,
- 22:12while satellite communications, which
- 22:14used to have the highest revenue share
- 22:16at $ 5.2 billion, was surpassed as this
- 22:18grew ninefold. Previously, it was even
- 22:20less than the revenue from last
- 22:22year’s space launch services. This
- 22:24means it is growing incredibly fast. So
- 22:27, when I looked earlier, SpaceX was up
- 22:29about 7 to 8%in after-hours trading.
- 22:31Naturally, it's a positive sign for an
- 22:33aerospace company to post such great
- 22:35numbers. So it went up, and when SpaceX
- 22:37rises, the companies in Korea that move
- 22:39with it are typically the ones listed
- 22:41here. That’s why they started off
- 22:43strong as soon as the market opened
- 22:44today. I explained it quickly before
- 22:46the regular market session at 9 a.m.
- 22:48That they would rise because of this.
- 22:50They opened with a gap up this morning
- 22:52and then showed a bit of a retreat, but
- 22:54in reality, they move in tandem with
- 22:56SpaceX. If you really break down why
- 22:58SpaceX went up, it wasn't because of
- 23:00aerospace, but because of AI sector
- 23:01revenue. If you look at SpaceX's future
- 23:05goals, their aim is to sell plenty of
- 23:08AI data center computing infrastructure
- 23:10and, ultimately, build space-based data
- 23:13centers. In any case, that is
- 23:15definitely the main goal. So, in the
- 23:17end, it’s shifting over here, and
- 23:18these guys were extremely strong today
- 23:20as well. You understand the structure,
- 23:21right? The way it’s shifting over
- 23:22like this. They were pushed back in the
- 23:23morning, but most of them stayed strong
- 23:25until the market closed. So, it’s a
- 23:26situation where it’s inevitably
- 23:28connected like this. And since
- 23:31President Trump has the midterms coming
- 23:33up on November 3rd, there is constant
- 23:35talk that the end of the Russia-Ukraine
- 23:37war is imminent because he wants to end
- 23:39the war quickly. Actually, Ukraine has
- 23:42no intention of ending the war right
- 23:44now. Russia doesn't seem to have much
- 23:46interest either, but Trump is telling
- 23:47them to finish it quickly. So, the U.S.
- 23:49position and the Ukrainian position are
- 23:50a bit different. The U.S. says this. Do
- 23:53you know how much money the U.S. has
- 23:55sent to Ukraine, combining the weapons
- 23:57supported directly and the indirect
- 23:59support Trump provided? It's over 400
- 24:02trillion won. They’ve given them over
- 24:03350 billion dollars. But if the war
- 24:05drags on, aren't you just using my
- 24:07money? You won't be able to pay it back
- 24:08later anyway. Why? Ukraine’s economic
- 24:10power is quite low, and even before the
- 24:13war, it was the poorest country in
- 24:15Eastern Europe. They have no money.
- 24:16Them. It’s even so corrupt that if
- 24:19you look at the global corruption index
- 24:20, they are in the top tier. They are so
- 24:23corrupt, and since you have no
- 24:24intention of paying it back after the
- 24:26war and you have no money if the war
- 24:27drags on, we're footing the bill, so
- 24:29why keep dragging it out? The U.S. is
- 24:31right, too. That’s why they’re
- 24:32telling them to finish it quickly, and
- 24:34Ukraine’s position is this. Trump is
- 24:36trying to force an end to the war to
- 24:38stabilize oil prices since the election
- 24:40is not far off. Ukraine's stance isn't
- 24:42exactly wrong either. Anyway, that's
- 24:44the state of affairs for Ukraine. Trump
- 24:46appointed a special envoy to meet with
- 24:49officials in Ukraine and Russia to talk
- 24:52, and that envoy is Keith Kellogg, and
- 24:55there are reports today that he will
- 24:58meet with Putin. Before, they only met
- 25:01with working-level or high-ranking
- 25:02officials to discuss a general
- 25:04direction, but now there is talk that
- 25:05he might meet Putin to deliver a peace
- 25:07negotiation proposal. Trump is trying
- 25:10to force an end to the war before the
- 25:12election, which is why related stocks
- 25:14moved a bit today. As you know, if you
- 25:17look at the structure of the war,
- 25:18Russia has taken some of Ukraine's land
- 25:20as you see here. Russia is currently
- 25:23occupying about 20%of Ukraine's entire
- 25:25territory. So, what Russia wants is to
- 25:27keep this land, and from Ukraine's
- 25:29perspective, this was originally their
- 25:30land and they want it back, but from
- 25:32Russia's perspective, there is no
- 25:34reason to give it up. So, the European
- 25:36Union is currently proposing a way to
- 25:38mediate this, and it’s basically
- 25:39saying, "Hey Ukraine, honestly, you
- 25:41can't get this back, so just cleanly
- 25:43give it up, okay?""Then, whether you
- 25:45join NATO or not, let’s talk about
- 25:47that later.""It’s already deadlocked
- 25:49anyway, so Ukraine can’t break
- 25:50through and Russia isn't advancing
- 25:52either." So, the picture is moving
- 25:53toward just acknowledging this
- 25:54situation, but Ukraine can't bring
- 25:56itself to do it. Because if President
- 25:57Zelenskyy signs that deal, there’s a
- 25:59high possibility he’ll be branded a
- 26:00traitor who sold out his country. He is
- 26:02a politician, after all. Anyway, that's
- 26:03why these deals keep coming up. And the
- 26:06U.S. is currently pulling back a lot on
- 26:08helping Ukraine. Ukraine uses the U.S.
- 26:11Patriot system for air defense; did you
- 26:12know the U.S. isn't providing them
- 26:14right now? They are trying not to give
- 26:16weapons to Ukraine at the moment.
- 26:17They’re really not giving them, and
- 26:18there was a lot of talk when they even
- 26:19restricted Starlink access before. So
- 26:21they are saying they won't or can't
- 26:23help anymore, and Ukraine has no choice
- 26:24. They can't fight the war without the
- 26:26U.S. So, in reality, the U.S. is the
- 26:28one in charge right now. And looking at
- 26:30it from our country’s perspective,
- 26:31President Yoon Suk-yeol said yesterday
- 26:32that the Korean stock market is very
- 26:34undervalued and that necessary measures
- 26:35will be taken soon. I feel like there
- 26:37needs to be some kind of structural
- 26:39reform at the government level. As I
- 26:41mentioned before, when there is extreme
- 26:43concentration in specific stocks,
- 26:45pouring gasoline on a burning house is
- 26:46what these KOSDAQ leverage or
- 26:48single-stock leverage products do, and
- 26:50the statistics came out today. Since
- 26:52the launch of the Samsung Electronics
- 26:54leverage ETF, there has been 6.3
- 26:55trillion won in losses over the last
- 26:56two and a half months. Realized losses
- 26:58are 2.3 trillion won. That means there
- 27:00are 4 trillion won in paper losses held
- 27:01by people who are just holding on. And
- 27:03in the case of SK Hynix, there’s a 2x
- 27:05leverage product, right? Do you know
- 27:07it’s down 89%from its peak? It’s 90
- 27:10%. 90. Samsung Electronics is better
- 27:12off; I think it’s down about 75%. So,
- 27:15in reality, no matter where you bought
- 27:16it, your money just melted away, and
- 27:18while the index did fall a lot, it is
- 27:20certainly becoming a problem. I don't
- 27:22know when the measures will be released
- 27:24, but since they said they would
- 27:26announce them once the relevant
- 27:27ministries determine a precise market
- 27:29assessment and a response strategy, we
- 27:32don't know the exact date. And
- 27:34yesterday and today, there has been a
- 27:36lot of talk about individual stocks,
- 27:37all about G2Power, so let me explain
- 27:38that to you. People were talking about
- 27:41this deal everywhere all day long, even
- 27:43this morning. G2Power is good, isn't it
- 27:44? So, what they originally do is this "
- 27:47Inno-Lamp" platform, and you can just
- 27:49think of it as a long-acting platform.
- 27:52It’s a concept that extends the
- 27:53duration, so instead of taking
- 27:54something daily, you take it once a
- 27:56week, or instead of weekly, once a
- 27:57month, making it a long-acting
- 27:58injection; they signed an evaluation
- 28:00agreement for the InnoLamp platform,
- 28:01which is a long-acting injectable drug
- 28:03platform, with a Chinese company called
- 28:05UBT. They entered into an evaluation
- 28:06agreement for the InnoLamp platform.
- 28:07The idea is that UBT will evaluate it,
- 28:09and if it looks good, they will buy it.
- 28:11To be precise, they haven’t bought it
- 28:13yet; they’re saying, "Your product
- 28:14seems really good, so let me verify it
- 28:16properly myself." It means, "If I check
- 28:18it and it's good, I’ll pay a large
- 28:19sum to buy it from you." They aren’t
- 28:21buying it yet. It is an evaluation
- 28:22agreement. Since evaluation results
- 28:25often lead to a main contract or a
- 28:26major deal, this itself can be seen as
- 28:28a significantly positive development.
- 28:30However, we need to think carefully
- 28:32about what kind of company this Chinese
- 28:34firm UBT is; they are a company that
- 28:36develops obesity treatment candidates.
- 28:38And they aren't as small a company as
- 28:39you might think. For instance, look at
- 28:41the drug called UBT-251. It is an
- 28:44obesity treatment candidate. It was
- 28:45sold to Novo Nordisk last March. For
- 28:48free, essentially. The top two players
- 28:49in the global obesity treatment market
- 28:51are definitely Eli Lilly and Novo
- 28:53Nordisk, and as you all know, Novo
- 28:55Nordisk sells Wegovy, while Eli Lilly
- 28:57sells Mounjaro. You have to compare
- 28:59them carefully. Right now, Eli
- 29:00Lilly’s stock price is hitting a new
- 29:02high, even compared to Novo Nordisk.
- 29:03Novo Nordisk isn't able to catch up.
- 29:05Even though they are the top two, when
- 29:07you look at why Mounjaro is considered
- 29:09better than Wegovy, it's simple. Wegovy
- 29:11was set up as a single agonist from the
- 29:14start. And Mounjaro is a dual agonist.
- 29:17Losing weight is obviously good, but if
- 29:19you work on multiple mechanisms
- 29:21involved in weight loss at the same
- 29:23time, you’ll naturally lose more
- 29:26weight. So, if you look at the clinical
- 29:28data, Mounjaro actually results in more
- 29:30weight loss than Wegovy. Is there a
- 29:31huge price difference? There isn't much
- 29:33of a price difference. Then, from a
- 29:34consumer's perspective, they’re both
- 29:35taken once a week, so it's the same.
- 29:37Also, the ease of administration is
- 29:38almost similar. Since the most
- 29:40important thing is how much weight you
- 29:41actually lose, and Mounjaro works
- 29:43better, there's no reason to choose the
- 29:45other one. So the injectable market has
- 29:47shifted toward Mounjaro, and because
- 29:49Wegovy came out in pill form, which is
- 29:51currently being sold in the US. This
- 29:54one also sells well. It hasn't been
- 29:56approved in Korea yet, but ultimately,
- 29:57because one is a single agonist and the
- 29:59other is a dual agonist, the latter is
- 30:01bound to be better, and if so, isn't a
- 30:03triple agonist going to be even better
- 30:05than a dual agonist? So, are they
- 30:06making a triple agonist? Eli Lilly has
- 30:08something called Retatrutide, and a
- 30:10triple agonist will be out soon. From
- 30:12Novo's perspective, they've made a good
- 30:14product, but whenever they release
- 30:16something, Lilly's is always a bit
- 30:18better. They did release a good product
- 30:22, but since Lilly eventually captures
- 30:24the whole market over time, Novo's
- 30:26strategy now is to speed up their own
- 30:28triple agonist development. They have
- 30:31one in internal development. A triple
- 30:32agonist. They are taking a two-track
- 30:35approach to the triple agonist because
- 30:37the target differs depending on which
- 30:39part it acts on. They have a pipeline
- 30:42under internal development and one
- 30:44other triple agonist. The one Novo is
- 30:46making. Do you know what that is? It's
- 30:48UBT-251. They bought that. Ultimately,
- 30:52it's a triple agonist, and it's UBT-251
- 30:54, which Novo bought to catch up to Eli
- 30:57Lilly. How much did they pay for it?
- 31:00They bought it for $ 2 billion, and the
- 31:02upfront payment was a whopping $ 200
- 31:04million. You know the concept of a $
- 31:05200 million upfront payment, right? The
- 31:07deal size isn't the only thing that
- 31:08matters—though a big one is good—
- 31:10but how much they pay upfront is
- 31:11crucial, and they received $ 200
- 31:13million in cash just as an initial
- 31:14payment. That's a huge deal. They
- 31:17bought it. But the important thing is
- 31:19that UBT, which made it, took G 2 G's
- 31:21InnoLAMP platform to evaluate it. Of
- 31:24course, if you look at the disclosure
- 31:26of the contract, the detailed terms are
- 31:27private. But just think about it. UBT
- 31:29bought it. For them, the main thing is
- 31:32UBT-251. Obviously, it's the main one
- 31:33because it sold for the highest price.
- 31:35But if they attach the InnoLAMP
- 31:37platform to it to make it long-acting,
- 31:39it would be a massive success. Although
- 31:43they didn't specify which substance
- 31:44they would apply it to for evaluation
- 31:46when they bought it, common sense
- 31:47suggests they would attach it here. To
- 31:49251. And if the data is good after
- 31:51attaching it. Then the possibility of
- 31:54Novo buying G2G Bio's InnoLAMP directly
- 31:56becomes extremely high; since Novo is
- 31:58already pushing this two-track strategy
- 32:00by buying this, they are likely to buy
- 32:01it directly, and since they are
- 32:03platforms anyway, other pharmaceutical
- 32:05companies will see it and say, "That
- 32:06long-acting InnoLAMP looks good, I
- 32:08should buy it too," leading to a
- 32:09structure where it's sold to many
- 32:11places simultaneously—that's what's
- 32:13been discussed continuously over the
- 32:14past couple of days. That's why it
- 32:17soared today. Since this topic kept
- 32:19coming up, I gave a brief explanation.
- 32:21Also, this is a report that came out;
- 32:22it must have been in the JoongAng Ilbo
- 32:24this morning. "New recruits who never
- 32:25leave work are coming." Samsung's "24-
- 32:27Hour" robot will be released soon. It
- 32:28seems it will be announced at next
- 32:30year's CES. For reference, at the start
- 32:33of this year at CES 2024, the
- 32:35undisputed leader was physical AI, and
- 32:37since robots are the leaders in
- 32:39physical AI, related stocks skyrocketed
- 32:41as much as fivefold starting from last
- 32:44summer and autumn. So, with CES 2025
- 32:46coming up next January, what will the
- 32:48key keyword be then? Naturally, it's
- 32:50physical AI. And it's robots again. So,
- 32:51Samsung Electronics is planning to go
- 32:54there and showcase this "24-Hour" robot
- 32:56. As I've mentioned before, the problem
- 32:58with robots right now is that because
- 33:00their bodies are small, they can't fit
- 33:01large batteries, so the battery life
- 33:02doesn't last very long. That's why they
- 33:04are trying to use solid-state batteries
- 33:06to extend it. They're trying to keep
- 33:08putting them in, and among existing
- 33:10lithium batteries, ternary batteries
- 33:12are being used a lot because they have
- 33:14high energy density; let’s talk about
- 33:16Hyundai Motor Group as an example.
- 33:18Hyundai’s humanoid robot is currently
- 33:20Atlas. If you put this on an automobile
- 33:23factory line, how many hours does it
- 33:25take to go from 100%full charge to 0%?
- 33:27It can't even last four hours right now
- 33:28. But, remember, I mentioned this
- 33:29before. Package loading and unloading
- 33:31is the most physically demanding labor,
- 33:33and if you use it for that, it consumes
- 33:35more electricity when lifting heavy
- 33:37objects, so it can't even last two
- 33:39hours. Then how can you use this to
- 33:40replace humans? That’s why the
- 33:42discussion now is to switch to a
- 33:44swappable battery system. I mean, you
- 33:46can't replace phone batteries these
- 33:48days, but you could in the past, right?
- 33:51So, just like charging them separately
- 33:53and swapping them out before starting
- 33:54work when they run low, since humanoids
- 33:56move on their own anyway, there will be
- 33:58battery stations. Then, if the battery
- 34:01runs low there. The humanoid will
- 34:03trudge over, lean its back against the
- 34:05station, and it will remove the old
- 34:07battery and insert a fully charged one.
- 34:09So, how many minutes does this battery
- 34:11swap take? It takes three minutes. The
- 34:13plan is to run them 24 hours by
- 34:14swapping every four hours for three
- 34:15minutes. That's why this talk is
- 34:17emerging; Samsung is trying to go with
- 34:19this structure, and both Atlas and
- 34:21Optimus are moving toward that kind of
- 34:22design now. That's what came out. So as
- 34:25soon as this report hit in the morning,
- 34:27these stocks surged, but as expected,
- 34:28when the index crashed, they just
- 34:30melted away. So, when the composite
- 34:32index drops by 4%or 5%, all stocks just
- 34:35get crushed. But it can't be helped.
- 34:37The important thing is that when stocks
- 34:39that reacted to certain news before the
- 34:40index crashed start to rise, that news
- 34:42suddenly becomes a focus again. For
- 34:44example, G2 Power or other individual
- 34:46stocks in the past; on the day the news
- 34:48came out, they fell due to the index
- 34:49crash, but then suddenly took off two
- 34:51or three days later. There might be no
- 34:53news for two or three days, and when
- 34:55you check why they are rising, it's
- 34:56because the news from two days ago is
- 34:58being highlighted again; that kind of
- 34:59pattern is likely to happen again. So
- 35:01please keep that in mind. As for the
- 35:02sectors today, the market basically
- 35:04melted yesterday, so aside from a few
- 35:05hair loss-related stocks, there wasn't
- 35:06much. The ones that are doing well
- 35:08today are semiconductors, power
- 35:09equipment, the space and aerospace
- 35:10stocks I mentioned earlier, the bio
- 35:12sector I just talked about, and solar
- 35:13power—though for that sector, only AI
- 35:15data center-related stocks went up.
- 35:16Actually, it's hard to say that solar
- 35:17power has gone up. Space, AI, data
- 35:19centers, oil stocks, or the Ukraine
- 35:21reconstruction themes I mentioned
- 35:23earlier; that's about it. Since the
- 35:25explanation is over now, let's look at
- 35:27the charts of individual stocks and see
- 35:30how they are moving. First, let me show
- 35:31you the US healthcare stocks for a
- 35:33moment. It's good to start by looking
- 35:35at them first. Because you need to see
- 35:36it with your own eyes. Looking at
- 35:38representative US healthcare stocks
- 35:40like Eli Lilly, or Merck, a famous name
- 35:42in cancer drugs. And if you look at
- 35:44companies like Johnson&Johnson or
- 35:46Moderna, pay close attention to Moderna
- 35:47. Looking at the recent stock price,
- 35:50Moderna is at a record high. AbbVie is
- 35:52at a record high. Eli Lilly is at a
- 35:54record high. And while Merck isn't at a
- 35:56record high yet, it's already near one.
- 35:58It's almost there. If two bullish
- 35:59candles appear, it'll reach a new high.
- 36:00So US healthcare has a lot of big-cap
- 36:03companies like those. That's why when
- 36:05US AI stocks and semiconductors were
- 36:06falling, healthcare went up on its own,
- 36:08which is why people are saying money is
- 36:10moving in that direction. And if you
- 36:12look at the S&P 500 healthcare ETF, it
- 36:13hit a record high yesterday too. Also,
- 36:16representative stocks like IBB or XBI
- 36:18have moved up to this point; they
- 36:20aren't at record highs, but the trend
- 36:22is very strong anyway. It's
- 36:24incomparable to semiconductors, so you
- 36:26can see a picture where a lot of funds
- 36:27are already moving over there. And what
- 36:30I’ve been saying about Korea since
- 36:31last week is not necessarily that we
- 36:33should buy Celltrion, but that we need
- 36:35to keep watching the "Cell-Tri-Ban"
- 36:37group; they are still holding their
- 36:38trend well and looking strong. This
- 36:40time, we need to see a record high. And
- 36:42as I mentioned earlier, there was that
- 36:44individual news for G2 Power. So it's
- 36:46in a position where it's rising well as
- 36:48the trading volume explodes. The
- 36:50possibility of additional strong
- 36:51momentum is quite high. And besides
- 36:53them, Alteogen was rising today but it
- 36:56was a bit disappointing, though it
- 36:57still has its head up now. Stocks like
- 36:59those need to rise significantly.
- 37:02Otherwise, Boronoi, OliX, they were
- 37:03decent, and OscoTec, DPHARMATECH, and
- 37:05others like them move in almost the
- 37:07same way in the big picture, so you can
- 37:09refer to that part, and earlier I
- 37:11mentioned SpaceX, so you should look at
- 37:13aerospace and space data centers. Then
- 37:16for aerospace, Almac, Almac has been
- 37:18quite decent recently. Sphere, HVM. HVM
- 37:23, Kencoa Aerospace, Nara Space, you
- 37:24know all of them, right? The stocks are
- 37:27all similar. The lightest one is
- 37:29originally Nara Space, but its market
- 37:30cap is actually too small, so it's hard
- 37:32to buy, and in terms of fundamentals,
- 37:34the ones above are much better. And
- 37:36moving on to space data centers,
- 37:38naturally, you have Daejoo Electronic
- 37:40Materials, OCI Holdings, and if you add
- 37:42Sunic System, those are the ones. They
- 37:45are also repeating the pattern of
- 37:46jumping up strongly, then dying the
- 37:48next day, jumping up again, and dying
- 37:49again, but once this box opens up, they
- 37:51will likely take off from then on. You
- 37:53can just look at them to that extent,
- 37:55and if you look at the Ukraine
- 37:57reconstruction theme, there are
- 37:58familiar stocks. Jeonjin Construction
- 38:02Robot, or Haein, or HD Hyundai
- 38:03Construction Equipment, and such; Haein
- 38:05had individual news today, and Haein
- 38:06hit the daily upper limit today. It is
- 38:09also a Ukraine reconstruction theme.
- 38:11These stocks were stuck at the bottom
- 38:14and are now rising, and if you look at
- 38:16robotics, I mentioned CES earlier, like
- 38:19Rainbow Robotics, and if you buy SPG,
- 38:22Everybot, or Hyundai Mus, or Halla Cast
- 38:25, there are quite a few good ones. But
- 38:29personally, no matter how much I study
- 38:32robots in my head, while there are many
- 38:34good ones, I can't buy them all, so I
- 38:37only see three that are the best. There
- 38:40are the top three I always sing praises
- 38:42about, and I hold all of those top
- 38:43three. There are exactly three, and
- 38:44those are my top three. They look the
- 38:46best to me, so I even sold other things
- 38:48yesterday to buy more. Anyway, the ones
- 38:51here are decent stocks, some are
- 38:52included here and some are not, but
- 38:54won't robotics continue to be good? No
- 38:57matter how I look at it, robots are
- 38:59truly great, and at the current price,
- 39:01I see almost no risk, and since there
- 39:03is no risk, it would be meaningless if
- 39:05they don't rise. But there are also
- 39:07many catalysts laid out for them to
- 39:09rise. And if you look at the past, the
- 39:10CES mention from earlier was about this
- 39:12spot here. You can see that they all
- 39:14had huge price surges in January of
- 39:16this year, right? The ones that didn't
- 39:18rise as much are up three or four times
- 39:19, and there are many that went up ten
- 39:20times. Ultimately, the time it rose was
- 39:22when Physical AI became the leader at
- 39:24CES 2024, and the one that received a
- 39:25lot of attention from foreign media
- 39:27here was, as I mentioned earlier,
- 39:28Hyundai Motor Group's Atlas. I'm not
- 39:31sure if you remember, but this was
- 39:33where Atlas did a backflip. So, from
- 39:35then on, people said, "Oh, this
- 39:36humanoid is better than Tesla's," and
- 39:38as it gained a lot of attention from
- 39:39foreign media, Hyundai Motor Group and
- 39:41even LG Electronics went up. Then it
- 39:43started to slip, but if you look here
- 39:45in the middle, around May or June. It
- 39:47rose once more around this time this
- 39:48year, and this was when our
- 39:49automotive-related stocks, since Boston
- 39:51Dynamics belongs to Hyundai Motor Group
- 39:53, and companies like LG Electronics
- 39:54went up. This was the final market
- 39:57rally, and what happened during this
- 39:58time was Jensen Huang's chicken dinner
- 40:00meetings; he kept coming to Korea,
- 40:01meeting Chairman Euisun Chung and Naver
- 40:03Chairman Yijeong Lee, singing the
- 40:04praises of Physical AI, and this was
- 40:06when that happened. Since then, it has
- 40:08been plummeting for four months. Right?
- 40:10You understand, right? And since next
- 40:13year's CES is in January, you can
- 40:14consider that there are only about
- 40:15three months left. Then, based on last
- 40:18year, the rise started from the fall.
- 40:21The full-scale rally began around
- 40:23October. And compared to last year's—
- 40:25I mean, this year's CES—there is a
- 40:27high possibility that more visible
- 40:29prototypes or mass-produced models
- 40:31related to Physical AI will appear at
- 40:33next year's CES. Technological progress
- 40:35has been immense over the past year.
- 40:37Originally, as of the first half of
- 40:39this year, over 90%of the world's
- 40:41humanoid robot production was in China,
- 40:43but now, a huge number of latecomer
- 40:45players are entering in terms of mass
- 40:47production. So, there are stocks where
- 40:50the number of actuators has already
- 40:52started to explode because they are
- 40:53supplying a lot to these companies, and
- 40:55ultimately, it's just the beginning. It
- 40:57used to be just based on anticipation,
- 40:59like "I guess robots are the future."
- 41:00If it used to rise because "This
- 41:01company makes robots" or "They have
- 41:02good technology," now it's, "Hey, they
- 41:03say they're going to churn out 30,000
- 41:05robots a year starting next year, and
- 41:06this company supplies all the parts for
- 41:07them." That's the kind of thing that's
- 41:08going up now. So, you can think of
- 41:10those companies as having already moved
- 41:11far beyond just expectations and are
- 41:13now seeing actual numbers being
- 41:14recorded. So, if I cover this much
- 41:16today, the explanation is finished.
- 41:18Everything that came out today and
- 41:20yesterday has been fully explained. You
- 41:21worked hard again today. I will see you
- 41:24on the day after tomorrow's broadcast.
- 41:27I will see our premium members tomorrow
- 41:29morning. You've worked very hard. Thank
- 41:31you for your efforts.
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