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[주식] 261021 탄력 떨어지는 IT, 큰 시세는 이쪽에서 — Transcript

by 한균수의 주식사용설명서 · 8,496 words · 1,302 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:02Hello. It's Han News again today. Today
  2. 0:04is Wednesday. Looking at the U.S.
  3. 0:06market yesterday, it was just okay. The
  4. 0:08Dow rose about 1%, but the S&P and
  5. 0:10Nasdaq ended near flat, and the
  6. 0:13Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which
  7. 0:15has the most direct impact on us
  8. 0:18recently, was at -0.29%, so it also
  9. 0:20ended near flat. As you know, the
  10. 0:22domestic market saw a sharp drop
  11. 0:24yesterday as "Electronics" shares
  12. 0:25melted down, dragging the composite
  13. 0:27index with them; that's related to U.S.
  14. 0:29semiconductors, like Micron for example
  15. 0:30. The decline in Micron was already
  16. 0:32reflected yesterday while our market
  17. 0:33was in session. In other words, since
  18. 0:36Micron and the Philly Semiconductor
  19. 0:38Index started off significantly lower
  20. 0:40when the U.S. market opened yesterday
  21. 0:41but managed to push back up by the
  22. 0:43close, even though it ended flat, we
  23. 0:45should see it as a recovery from our
  24. 0:46perspective. Because it had started off
  25. 0:49with a sharp drop in the morning. And
  26. 0:51today in our domestic market, the KOSPI
  27. 0:53closed up 3%, and the KOSDAQ was up
  28. 0:54about 1.38%. Both markets were decent,
  29. 0:57and "Electronics" climbed quite a bit
  30. 0:58during the session today. It was up
  31. 1:01about 8-9%around 11 a.m. before giving
  32. 1:03back some gains with a long upper wick,
  33. 1:06but it still managed a respectable rise
  34. 1:08. "Electronics" held up well, and even
  35. 1:11though the KOSPI rose 3%, there were
  36. 1:13fewer than 400 gainers at 370, while
  37. 1:15there were 490 decliners, nearly 500.
  38. 1:18So the KOSPI today was quite
  39. 1:20concentrated, and while the KOSDAQ's 1%
  40. 1:22gain isn't huge, it was still a decent
  41. 1:24performance. Yes. There were 800
  42. 1:26advancing stocks. Since there were 800
  43. 1:28decliners as well, we have to assume
  44. 1:30there was concentration in specific
  45. 1:31sectors on the KOSDAQ as well. Looking
  46. 1:33at today's closing prices, the stocks
  47. 1:35that moved stronger than the market
  48. 1:37were semiconductors, bio, and solar—
  49. 1:39well, more accurately, you can't say
  50. 1:42solar rose, but there are the space, AI
  51. 1:44, and data center related stocks. These
  52. 1:46are found in solar and secondary
  53. 1:48batteries, and these areas showed a
  54. 1:50picture of strong gains. Also, there's
  55. 1:52no real need to cover oil refining, but
  56. 1:54oil refining was fairly decent in
  57. 1:56today's market. And as for theme stocks
  58. 1:59, two were decent; aerospace started
  59. 2:00the morning with a strong gap up but
  60. 2:02gave back some gains, but there was
  61. 2:04definitely an issue in aerospace. After
  62. 2:07the U.S. market closed yesterday,
  63. 2:09SpaceX announced its earnings, and they
  64. 2:11were unusually good. I will explain in
  65. 2:13a moment why I say they are unusual.
  66. 2:16And the second theme is the Ukraine war
  67. 2:18ending theme stocks. It’s already
  68. 2:21been over four full years and we're
  69. 2:23heading toward five, and with President
  70. 2:24Trump facing the U.S. midterm elections
  71. 2:26on November 3rd, there are only two
  72. 2:28weeks left. So the hottest topic right
  73. 2:31now is that gasoline and diesel prices
  74. 2:32are just too expensive. In the U.S.,
  75. 2:34gasoline and diesel prices are rising
  76. 2:37faster than WTI crude oil. Since this
  77. 2:40directly impacts the election, it seems
  78. 2:42Trump is trying to end the Ukraine war
  79. 2:44quickly, as it is one of the main
  80. 2:46factors driving up these fuel prices.
  81. 2:49He is putting immense pressure on
  82. 2:50Ukraine. So, with Ukraine
  83. 2:52reconstruction stocks surging strongly
  84. 2:54today, once we check those, we'll have
  85. 2:56pretty much covered everything for
  86. 2:58today. And since there are a few
  87. 3:01individual stocks that spiked today
  88. 3:03with a high potential for further gains
  89. 3:05, we'll go over those as well to wrap
  90. 3:07up today's discussion. The market
  91. 3:10lately feels like a game of Whac-A-Mole
  92. 3:11. It gets pushed up one day, crushed
  93. 3:13the next, and then climbs back up again
  94. 3:15; this cycle keeps repeating, and the
  95. 3:17volatility in the composite index is so
  96. 3:19high it’s moving almost like a penny
  97. 3:21stock. Honestly, even KOSDAQ penny
  98. 3:22stocks don't move like the composite
  99. 3:24index; it really is a peculiar market.
  100. 3:26And indices always have cycles where
  101. 3:28they move well and move poorly, right?
  102. 3:31But this current cycle is just getting
  103. 3:33a bit prolonged. Also, looking at the
  104. 3:35strong sectors I mentioned earlier,
  105. 3:37it's fortunate that many of them have
  106. 3:39high retail investor participation, and
  107. 3:41we were holding most of the stocks that
  108. 3:43were part of today's strong sectors.
  109. 3:46Most of you probably were as well. And
  110. 3:48looking at the composite index, you
  111. 3:50have to watch both KOSPI and KOSDAQ
  112. 3:52together, but seeing how they move is
  113. 3:53honestly frustrating. The volatility is
  114. 3:55high in both directions, but it’s not
  115. 3:57an upward trend; it’s just the same
  116. 3:59pattern of being pushed down and pulled
  117. 4:02back up—for example, KOSPI closed up
  118. 4:041.7%the other day, down 3.77%yesterday,
  119. 4:06and up 3%today. I’m not sure what
  120. 4:08they are doing, but the good news is,
  121. 4:09if you compare KOSPI and KOSDAQ, I’ve
  122. 4:11always said that KOSDAQ is the one that
  123. 4:13has broken through its box range before
  124. 4:15. So, you have to consider that this is
  125. 4:17where the trend is definitely alive.
  126. 4:20They might look the same in the broad
  127. 4:21picture, but they are not the same
  128. 4:22thing. Since it has broken through
  129. 4:25there once before, if it rebounds,
  130. 4:26it’s highly likely to gain more
  131. 4:28momentum. They are somewhat similar,
  132. 4:30but in any case, you should look toward
  133. 4:32KOSDAQ rather than KOSPI, and
  134. 4:33small-to-mid caps over large caps, and
  135. 4:35as for whether Korea is the only one in
  136. 4:36such a mess, the answer is yes. You
  137. 4:39might think this is unique to our
  138. 4:40country, but if you overlay the KOSPI
  139. 4:42with the Taiwan Weighted Index or the
  140. 4:44Nikkei, the downturns look identical.
  141. 4:46But the important thing is that their
  142. 4:48trends haven't broken. For reference,
  143. 4:50look at the Taiwan Weighted Index as of
  144. 4:51October 6 th—it wasn't that long ago.
  145. 4:53They hit a record high just two weeks
  146. 4:54ago before pulling back. We were pushed
  147. 4:57down early without any rebound before
  148. 4:58falling further, whereas they hit a
  149. 5:00record high, and the Nikkei, while not
  150. 5:01at a record high, broke through the
  151. 5:0340,000-point mark before coming back
  152. 5:05down. It's quite disappointing when you
  153. 5:07look at it this way; comparing us to
  154. 5:09Taiwan, there are actually many
  155. 5:11similarities between our countries. The
  156. 5:13fact that we are both export-driven
  157. 5:14nations. And that the semiconductor
  158. 5:15industry serves as the largest pillar
  159. 5:17for both economies. Even in the stock
  160. 5:19market, both countries have a very high
  161. 5:21market capitalization weighting in the
  162. 5:22semiconductor sector. Japan is often
  163. 5:25compared to us, but they aren't a
  164. 5:27semiconductor-led nation. So, it's hard
  165. 5:29to compare directly with them, and we
  166. 5:31should be comparing with Taiwan instead
  167. 5:33; for reference, the weight of the
  168. 5:34semiconductor sector, including TSMC,
  169. 5:36in the Taiwanese market is significant.
  170. 5:38I mean, we also have an incredibly high
  171. 5:39weighting for Samsung and SK Hynix. In
  172. 5:40the KOSPI. But Taiwan's is even higher.
  173. 5:42Despite that, they still managed to
  174. 5:45reach record highs. Of course, if you
  175. 5:47look at their business models, they
  176. 5:49focus on system semiconductors and
  177. 5:50foundries while we focus on memory, so
  178. 5:52it's hard to say they're identical, but
  179. 5:54given the industrial structures are so
  180. 5:56similar, it's very disappointing that
  181. 5:57we are performing so much worse than
  182. 5:59Taiwan. So, in any case, I think that
  183. 6:02area needs some improvement. The index
  184. 6:05moves too much like a penny stock; of
  185. 6:07course, Taiwan also saw a sharp drop
  186. 6:09due to the massive decline in the U.S.
  187. 6:11memory and semiconductor sectors, but
  188. 6:13look at the scale of their drop. Can
  189. 6:16you compare it to Korea? Our market is
  190. 6:18just not providing enough defense. I
  191. 6:20think there needs to be some kind of
  192. 6:22structural solution, whether at the
  193. 6:24policy level or through new regulations
  194. 6:25. Whenever you look at our country, the
  195. 6:27structure is always like that. It’s
  196. 6:30not just this time for the KOSPI; if
  197. 6:31you look at the cycle from a few years
  198. 6:33ago or even the cycle before that, our
  199. 6:35market is known for being explosive
  200. 6:37when it goes up. When our market rises,
  201. 6:39there are actually quite a few days
  202. 6:41where the KOSPI composite index records
  203. 6:42the highest growth rate in the world.
  204. 6:44This hasn't just happened recently or
  205. 6:46this time around; it was true in the
  206. 6:472020 cycle and even in previous cycles
  207. 6:49—the KOSPI often proudly takes first
  208. 6:51place in growth during upturns, but the
  209. 6:52problem is that it hits rock bottom
  210. 6:54during downturns. To put it positively,
  211. 6:57it means it's easy to make money when
  212. 6:59it goes up, but because the rally is
  213. 7:01driven by such a frenzy, it also
  214. 7:03becomes a problem when it falls.
  215. 7:05Looking at Samsung Electronics and
  216. 7:06Hynix, there was a decent rebound
  217. 7:08attempt this morning, with Samsung
  218. 7:10Electronics 'high for today up by 0.9%.
  219. 7:12Hynix is also around 0.9%. So, they
  220. 7:14have risen a lot, and while it's good
  221. 7:15that the volatility—the movement up
  222. 7:17and down—is high, the direction
  223. 7:18itself isn't clearly established, so
  224. 7:20wouldn't it be right to see their
  225. 7:21momentum as having weakened? And when
  226. 7:24you look at the strength of
  227. 7:25mid-to-small cap stocks rising while
  228. 7:26these are resting, you can definitely
  229. 7:28see that their strength has become
  230. 7:29significantly stronger. We'll have to
  231. 7:31keep watching, but for now, it seems
  232. 7:33the flow of supply and demand has
  233. 7:35shifted to other sectors. Looking at
  234. 7:38the U.S. stock market first, when you
  235. 7:39see the semiconductors dropping
  236. 7:41significantly the other night and then
  237. 7:42rebounding slightly, it might look like
  238. 7:43they've risen a lot, but they haven't.
  239. 7:46They fell so much that the movement is
  240. 7:48almost like a dead cat bounce—just
  241. 7:50the extent of dead stocks jumping up
  242. 7:51once. It's exactly like this. It's hard
  243. 7:54to say it has risen a lot just by
  244. 7:55seeing it go up once while it was
  245. 7:56trending down, right? And looking at
  246. 7:59the U.S. market yesterday, it was very
  247. 8:01distinct; even though the composite
  248. 8:02index and the Philadelphia
  249. 8:03Semiconductor Index were flat, there
  250. 8:05were clearly strong performers. It was
  251. 8:08clear that in the U.S. yesterday, this
  252. 8:09one was the leader. The one I can
  253. 8:11accurately identify as such was Bio.
  254. 8:13U.S. healthcare stocks are currently
  255. 8:14hitting a lot of new highs. Some broke
  256. 8:16through to new highs yesterday, which
  257. 8:18we'll look at shortly, and the logical
  258. 8:21reason for why they are moving like
  259. 8:23that is...you see the Korea Investment&
  260. 8:25Securities homepage here? It explains
  261. 8:27it well here, and if you look at the
  262. 8:29bottom of today's morning briefing, it
  263. 8:30shows up. Healthcare is bound to be
  264. 8:32talked about. It says here that the
  265. 8:33leader yesterday was healthcare. Eli
  266. 8:35Lilly was up 3.4%, UnitedHealth was up
  267. 8:373%, which was a stronger rise than the
  268. 8:39S&P 500's 0.28%or flat performance.
  269. 8:42Reuters reported that healthcare led
  270. 8:44the sector gains, and that buying is
  271. 8:46already shifting to other sectors amid
  272. 8:48caution over tech stock valuations and
  273. 8:50profit-taking issues. What does this
  274. 8:53point to? The confirmed factor is
  275. 8:54sectoral rotation. The reason this
  276. 8:56comes up is that the perspective on
  277. 8:57healthcare and bio in our country
  278. 8:59differs from the perspective in the
  279. 9:01U.S. Traditional pharmaceutical
  280. 9:02companies in the U.S. have a very long
  281. 9:04history and there are many large-cap
  282. 9:06stocks that translate that into actual
  283. 9:08earnings. Representative stocks like
  284. 9:09that in our country would be Samsung
  285. 9:11Biologics and Celltrion. Samsung
  286. 9:12Biologics and Celltrion are the
  287. 9:13healthcare stocks that show actual
  288. 9:14numbers, aren't they? So, since they
  289. 9:16move more like manufacturing companies,
  290. 9:17I think that’s why Sam-Ba and
  291. 9:18Celltrion are rising well, and there
  292. 9:20are also biotech firms in the US. But
  293. 9:22even among those tech stocks, some are
  294. 9:24hitting new highs. Healthcare is just
  295. 9:26that strong in the US right now. So,
  296. 9:29they aren’t viewed as those "all-in
  297. 9:31on drug development or bust" types of
  298. 9:34stocks, but rather as defensive
  299. 9:36manufacturing businesses. In the US,
  300. 9:39that is. Think about it simply: if
  301. 9:42you’re unwell and need to take
  302. 9:43medicine, you don’t just stop taking
  303. 9:45it because the economy is bad or your
  304. 9:47salary has been cut. So, since there
  305. 9:51are many stocks in the US seen as
  306. 9:53defensive, we can see many of them
  307. 9:55hitting new highs, and there’s a lot
  308. 9:58of talk that money from global hedge
  309. 10:00funds, which had flooded into AI, is
  310. 10:02shifting toward defensive sectors,
  311. 10:04primarily healthcare. This topic has
  312. 10:07actually been coming up quite often.
  313. 10:08Since these stocks didn't drop at all
  314. 10:09when others were falling recently, and
  315. 10:11are actually hitting new highs, please
  316. 10:12keep that in mind. When we look at the
  317. 10:15statistics of the Korean market
  318. 10:16compared to US healthcare over the past
  319. 10:1820 years, the decoupling is at an
  320. 10:19all-time high, even over such a long
  321. 10:21time horizon. It's just too large. At
  322. 10:23the very least, Sam-Ba and Celltrion
  323. 10:25should see a major rally. Anyway,
  324. 10:26that’s the situation right now. Now,
  325. 10:28let’s take a look at the major news
  326. 10:30from the US one by one. Elon Musk said
  327. 10:33next year, for every child in the US—
  328. 10:35demographic statistics say the US child
  329. 10:37population is 72 million—he would
  330. 10:39give them one share of SpaceX. When
  331. 10:41this was announced, the closing price
  332. 10:43of SpaceX was $ 146. So, per share in
  333. 10:46Korean Won, that’s roughly between
  334. 10:48180,000 and 200,000 won. He says he’s
  335. 10:50going to give that to 72 million people
  336. 10:51. That amounts to $ 10.5 billion in
  337. 10:53scale. That’s nearly 15 trillion won,
  338. 10:55but considering the total value of
  339. 10:56Musk’s holdings, it’s not actually
  340. 10:58that much money, but it’s still
  341. 10:59impressive. I hope things go well so it
  342. 11:03can be used for children or vulnerable
  343. 11:05social groups, but anyway, he said
  344. 11:08he’d spend big. For reference, why is
  345. 11:11he suddenly giving this away? It’s
  346. 11:14because of a policy created by
  347. 11:15President Trump. There’s something
  348. 11:16called the "Trump Account." The Trump
  349. 11:18Account. What is it? It’s basically
  350. 11:21opening an account for every child in
  351. 11:22the US, where the government receives
  352. 11:24donations in a sort of matching fund
  353. 11:25style. A prime example is someone like
  354. 11:28Michael Dell, the founder of Dell, whom
  355. 11:30Trump really likes. He brings him along
  356. 11:31to events all the time. Why is that?
  357. 11:33Because Dell has donated a massive
  358. 11:34amount of money. On top of this. So,
  359. 11:36with the donated money, you have
  360. 11:37working parents who are employed at
  361. 11:39companies, right? Then the company
  362. 11:41where the parent works provides a
  363. 11:44matching grant. For instance, if they
  364. 11:46received a donation from the state and
  365. 11:48distributed about 200,000 won per
  366. 11:49person. Then the company adds another
  367. 11:51200,000 won to that. So that would be a
  368. 11:53total of 400,000 won, right? Per month.
  369. 11:55If you keep accumulating it like this
  370. 11:56for 5 or 10 years, or until the
  371. 11:58children reach adulthood, imagine how
  372. 11:59huge it would grow with 20 years of
  373. 12:01compound interest. So the account
  374. 12:02intended to build a lump sum for kids
  375. 12:04to use for college later is the Trump
  376. 12:06account, and he's going to donate to
  377. 12:07that. Why is he doing this? With the
  378. 12:09election on November 3rd just around
  379. 12:11the corner, Musk has gone all-in on the
  380. 12:12Republican Party. So you can see it as
  381. 12:15something done for the sake of the
  382. 12:16election. It’s not really an issue
  383. 12:18that affects the stock price, but
  384. 12:20it’s a novel concept, so I wanted to
  385. 12:21bring it up. And if you check out
  386. 12:23American communities regarding Jensen
  387. 12:24Huang recently. Like our country's
  388. 12:26stock discussion boards, places like
  389. 12:28Reddit in the U.S. have some very
  390. 12:30interesting posts. People are cursing
  391. 12:32Jensen Huang like crazy, calling him a
  392. 12:34total fraudster and crossing the line
  393. 12:36with insults; why are they doing that?
  394. 12:38It's because Jensen made it all like
  395. 12:40this. I’ve been talking about it, and
  396. 12:42what’s being discussed in the U.S. is
  397. 12:44that the business CoreWeave is doing is
  398. 12:46essentially Neo-Cloud. There have been
  399. 12:48many talks recently that it might
  400. 12:49collapse, and every time this comes up,
  401. 12:50people point to the structure Jensen
  402. 12:52Huang designed. It’s called a
  403. 12:54circular economy; I give money to the
  404. 12:55customer, and the customer uses that
  405. 12:57money to buy equipment from me, that
  406. 12:58kind of structure. And what was
  407. 13:00mentioned today as a satire is that its
  408. 13:02structure is exactly the same as
  409. 13:03Myeongryun Jinsa Galbi. When opening a
  410. 13:05Myeongryun Jinsa Galbi franchise, it
  411. 13:07costs a lot, and since the person
  412. 13:09wanting to start it doesn't have the
  413. 13:11money, the headquarters provides a loan
  414. 13:12. Then, with the money from the loan,
  415. 13:14when the person starts the business,
  416. 13:16they have to pay for interior costs,
  417. 13:18materials, or franchise fees, right?
  418. 13:19They pay it back to Myeongryun Jinsa
  419. 13:21Galbi. And for things like sourcing the
  420. 13:24meat or various items needed for daily
  421. 13:26operations. They have to buy those from
  422. 13:28headquarters anyway, so isn't that a
  423. 13:29circular economy? So people say the
  424. 13:31structure of Myeongryun Jinsa Galbi and
  425. 13:33Nvidia is identical, and it really is.
  426. 13:35It means they are artificially creating
  427. 13:37demand. So it works very well at first,
  428. 13:39but the problem is that if one link in
  429. 13:40the chain breaks, it leads to a chain
  430. 13:42reaction of bankruptcies. There has
  431. 13:44been a lot of talk about this since
  432. 13:46last year, but recently, stock prices
  433. 13:48for Micron, the memory sector, and
  434. 13:49semiconductor equipment have fallen
  435. 13:51significantly. As those prices drop,
  436. 13:53people are criticizing Jensen Huang,
  437. 13:55claiming he’s fueling a bubble, but
  438. 13:57from the Nvidia CEO's perspective, he
  439. 13:59obviously has to talk it up. So, at the
  440. 14:01conference, he went on to say that the
  441. 14:02next wave of artificial intelligence is
  442. 14:04physical AI. The leader of physical AI
  443. 14:06is definitely robotics. You could add
  444. 14:08autonomous vehicles or robotaxis to
  445. 14:09that, but robotics is certainly the
  446. 14:11leader. He’s been giving lip service,
  447. 14:13saying there will never be another
  448. 14:14opportunity like this, but the stock
  449. 14:15price hasn't shown much reaction. So,
  450. 14:17he’s facing a tremendous amount of
  451. 14:19backlash. Also, the U.S. administration
  452. 14:21has banned the use of Chinese DeepSeek
  453. 14:23products and services within U.S.
  454. 14:24federal agency systems. This isn't
  455. 14:26exactly groundbreaking news, as it’s
  456. 14:28already banned in Korea as well.
  457. 14:29They're basically banning all Chinese
  458. 14:31products anyway. Furthermore, at the
  459. 14:32SEMI global semiconductor equipment and
  460. 14:34materials association meeting, they
  461. 14:35stated that global investment in
  462. 14:36semiconductor equipment will reach
  463. 14:37roughly 1,000 trillion won over the
  464. 14:39next four years. With about 150 billion
  465. 14:42dollars this year, 170 billion next
  466. 14:43year, 190 billion the following year,
  467. 14:45and 220 billion in 2028, they are
  468. 14:47saying that for at least the next three
  469. 14:49to four years, even if memory peaks out
  470. 14:51, equipment sales will continue to grow
  471. 14:53at that pace. While this is good news
  472. 14:56for semiconductor equipment stocks, the
  473. 14:57market didn't react very strongly, and
  474. 14:59the stocks haven't moved much. Reuters
  475. 15:01reported that President Trump’s
  476. 15:02approval rating has hit an all-time low
  477. 15:04. It varies by polling organization,
  478. 15:06but it is true that it has fallen
  479. 15:08significantly. It seems they started
  480. 15:09the war with Iran for no reason at the
  481. 15:11end of February, reportedly thinking it
  482. 15:13would end within a few months when they
  483. 15:15first launched it. They didn't intend
  484. 15:17to drag it out until the election, but
  485. 15:18Iran knows President Trump's weaknesses
  486. 15:20. As the war drags on, Iran understands
  487. 15:22very well that any bad news related to
  488. 15:24oil will drive prices up and hit
  489. 15:26Trump’s approval rating directly, so
  490. 15:28they are just in "hold" mode. That is
  491. 15:30the current state of affairs; the
  492. 15:31approval rating has dropped
  493. 15:32significantly, and the biggest factor
  494. 15:34influencing that decline is the current
  495. 15:35oil price issue. I mentioned this
  496. 15:36earlier. Gasoline prices in the U.S.
  497. 15:38have now broken through 6 dollars per
  498. 15:40gallon. And things like diesel prices
  499. 15:42as well. But if you look at it, the
  500. 15:43number considered important in the U.S.
  501. 15:45is actually 3. 4. The reason is that
  502. 15:48it’s based on the retail price at gas
  503. 15:50stations for gasoline and diesel, which
  504. 15:52Americans use the most. Once it breaks
  505. 15:544 dollars a gallon, it’s seen as
  506. 15:55having a direct impact on the
  507. 15:57president's approval rating, and now
  508. 15:58there are places where it’s in the
  509. 16:00high 5-dollar range or even over 6
  510. 16:02dollars. That’s why the approval
  511. 16:03rating has taken such a big hit. Please
  512. 16:04take that into account. Starting
  513. 16:07tomorrow, there will be a strike at
  514. 16:08Micron's Taiwan plant, and as expected,
  515. 16:11the union is demanding 15%of the
  516. 16:12company's operating profit. In fact,
  517. 16:15there are almost no precedents
  518. 16:17worldwide where 15%of operating profit
  519. 16:19was distributed to employees as a bonus
  520. 16:20. The precedent was first set by SK
  521. 16:24Hynix when they agreed to it, though
  522. 16:26their performance wasn't that great
  523. 16:28when they made the promise. Suddenly,
  524. 16:31as the semiconductor cycle exploded,
  525. 16:33earnings grew exponentially, and
  526. 16:34employees started receiving 500 million
  527. 16:35to 1 billion won per person annually.
  528. 16:38Since it's just the three companies—
  529. 16:40Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron
  530. 16:41—when it comes to memory, especially
  531. 16:43DRAM. Because Hynix employees were
  532. 16:46taking home so much money, neighboring
  533. 16:48Samsung Electronics asked if they could
  534. 16:49have it too, and they eventually got
  535. 16:51the green light. They are already
  536. 16:53paying it out. So, now that the Micron
  537. 16:54union has come forward to demand the
  538. 16:56same, it's unavoidable. Because of the
  539. 16:58Hynix precedent, the creation of such a
  540. 16:59precedent is very significant. So, once
  541. 17:01it was established, it was accepted
  542. 17:02here. And now Micron is in a state of
  543. 17:04demanding it. For reference, since
  544. 17:07Micron's performance has also improved
  545. 17:09significantly, they did agree to pay
  546. 17:11something, but looking at their initial
  547. 17:14offer, it varied by years of service,
  548. 17:16but it seemed to be about 40 million
  549. 17:18won per person. But the union rejected
  550. 17:21it. They are demanding 15%of operating
  551. 17:24profit permanently, and since Samsung
  552. 17:25and Hynix have agreed to pay, it's
  553. 17:27difficult for them to refuse. The
  554. 17:29important thing right now is that more
  555. 17:32than half of all memory semiconductors
  556. 17:34produced by Micron come from their
  557. 17:35Taiwan plant. Even though it's an
  558. 17:37American company, they have almost no
  559. 17:38fabs in the U.S. That's a bit of a
  560. 17:39problem for Micron. Anyway, because of
  561. 17:41this, if their strike drags on, these
  562. 17:43guys will naturally benefit from the
  563. 17:44rebound. So, it was said that the
  564. 17:47strike at Micron's Taiwan plant
  565. 17:49starting tomorrow played a big role in
  566. 17:51the rebound of Samsung and Hynix today,
  567. 17:53but that seems like a superficial
  568. 17:55reason tacked on; I don't think that's
  569. 17:57why they went up so strongly today. And
  570. 18:00among the reports that came out
  571. 18:01yesterday, there are many tech
  572. 18:03companies in China. Like Alibaba,
  573. 18:04ByteDance—that’s TikTok—and
  574. 18:05Tencent. It was reported that these
  575. 18:07companies ordered over 3 million units
  576. 18:10of NVIDIA's new RTX 5800 graphics cards
  577. 18:12. But the problem is that while they
  578. 18:14are spending all their money, pouring
  579. 18:16in 40 to 50 trillion won for an amount
  580. 18:18of 35 billion dollars, NVIDIA said they
  581. 18:21can't supply them anyway due to a
  582. 18:22shortage. Looking at this, the
  583. 18:24implication is that it's not just
  584. 18:25memory that's a bottleneck now; we were
  585. 18:27told that the GPU bottleneck had eased
  586. 18:29a lot, after all. Supply is relatively
  587. 18:31smoother compared to memory, they say.
  588. 18:33But it turns out GPU supply is tight as
  589. 18:34well. The fact that they can't even
  590. 18:36sell them because they don't have
  591. 18:37enough is, in a way, good news. For
  592. 18:38reference, regarding China, the US
  593. 18:40Trump administration—you know the GPU
  594. 18:43memory made by Nvidia? They’ve
  595. 18:45blocked the sale of high-performance
  596. 18:47GPU chips to China, so China can’t
  597. 18:49buy those. So, low-value,
  598. 18:52lower-performance, or older models have
  599. 18:54been partially allowed. Looking at it,
  600. 18:59Nvidia's new RTX 5500 is currently the
  601. 19:01best chip China can legally import from
  602. 19:04the US. So, they are forced to bite the
  603. 19:08bullet and buy these. But even these
  604. 19:10are in short supply, and now the US is
  605. 19:12saying they can't provide them. And the
  606. 19:15key point after the US market closed
  607. 19:17yesterday was SpaceX's earnings; to cut
  608. 19:19to the chase, they were excellent. But
  609. 19:22what was unusual is that the revenue
  610. 19:24from the AI sector exceeded $ 7.5
  611. 19:27billion. That is an 830%increase
  612. 19:29year-on-year, meaning it grew ninefold.
  613. 19:32Let me repeat, it didn’t just grow by
  614. 19:3490%, it grew nine times over. In just
  615. 19:36one year. How did it grow that much? As
  616. 19:39you know, SpaceX’s original business
  617. 19:40is launching communication satellites
  618. 19:42like Starlink and collecting fees from
  619. 19:43subscribers, or acting as a launch
  620. 19:45service provider. For example, even our
  621. 19:48country pays SpaceX to handle many of
  622. 19:50our launches. And since they launch so
  623. 19:53cheaply and effectively, even NASA
  624. 19:55often pays them to perform launches.
  625. 19:57It’s a business where they charge
  626. 19:59fees for acting as a launch service,
  627. 20:00like delivering a package. So, their
  628. 20:03main pillars were Starlink or launch
  629. 20:06services, but what’s been added now
  630. 20:08is AI. Since they merged with xAI,
  631. 20:12they’ve set up a massive amount of AI
  632. 20:14data center computing infrastructure
  633. 20:16for their own AI—you know, the one
  634. 20:18Musk created, Grok. I’ve used Grok
  635. 20:21quite a bit, and honestly, I don't get
  636. 20:23the feeling that its performance is
  637. 20:25great. But Grok does have its strengths
  638. 20:27. It’s fun. In what way is it fun? If
  639. 20:30you tell it to speak to you casually,
  640. 20:32it just starts swearing at you. So, in
  641. 20:34that sense, it’s entertaining. But
  642. 20:37it's hard to call it high-performing;
  643. 20:39if you compare the latest Grok model to
  644. 20:42Anthropic’s Claude series or ChatGPT
  645. 20:445.5 or 6, the comparison is quite stark
  646. 20:47. Musk knows it too. He honestly admits
  647. 20:50that Grok is currently lagging behind.
  648. 20:52Anyway, so it’s just fun, that’s
  649. 20:53all. The performance is a bit lacking,
  650. 20:55but they built so many—they have this
  651. 20:56place called Memphis where they set up
  652. 20:58a Memphis data center. But they built
  653. 20:59so much that they have extra left over
  654. 21:01after running their own Grok. The
  655. 21:03computing infrastructure, that is. So
  656. 21:04they said they would sell that surplus
  657. 21:06to external parties. Seeing this, Meta
  658. 21:08thought, "Oh, was that a way to sell?"
  659. 21:10and tried to follow suit. Mark
  660. 21:12Zuckerberg of Meta said the exact same
  661. 21:14thing a while ago. They invested
  662. 21:16heavily to build many data centers, and
  663. 21:18since they have some computing
  664. 21:19infrastructure left over, they would
  665. 21:21rent it out to others. It's just like
  666. 21:23real estate, receiving rent. So,
  667. 21:25looking here, the AI division's revenue
  668. 21:27isn't subscription revenue from Grok.
  669. 21:30When you look at how companies like
  670. 21:32OpenAI or Claude grow their revenue,
  671. 21:34it's usually from subscriptions where
  672. 21:36people like me pay hundreds of dollars
  673. 21:38a month, or from token fees paid for
  674. 21:40extra usage. But for them, this is
  675. 21:42revenue from renting out computing
  676. 21:44infrastructure. So, in the end, the
  677. 21:45model is quite similar to CoreWeave.
  678. 21:47And this has caused their performance
  679. 21:49to increase ninefold. This is why
  680. 21:51people are starting to think that
  681. 21:53SpaceX is becoming more of an AI
  682. 21:55company than a satellite company. The
  683. 21:57AI division has overtaken the
  684. 21:59telecommunications division, Starlink,
  685. 22:01to become the company's largest source
  686. 22:03of revenue. It’s number one in
  687. 22:04revenue now. Communications used to be
  688. 22:06number one, but this has surpassed it.
  689. 22:08It has surpassed it by a wide margin.
  690. 22:09Looking here, the AI Super Intelligence
  691. 22:11division brought in $ 7.5 billion,
  692. 22:12while satellite communications, which
  693. 22:14used to have the highest revenue share
  694. 22:16at $ 5.2 billion, was surpassed as this
  695. 22:18grew ninefold. Previously, it was even
  696. 22:20less than the revenue from last
  697. 22:22year’s space launch services. This
  698. 22:24means it is growing incredibly fast. So
  699. 22:27, when I looked earlier, SpaceX was up
  700. 22:29about 7 to 8%in after-hours trading.
  701. 22:31Naturally, it's a positive sign for an
  702. 22:33aerospace company to post such great
  703. 22:35numbers. So it went up, and when SpaceX
  704. 22:37rises, the companies in Korea that move
  705. 22:39with it are typically the ones listed
  706. 22:41here. That’s why they started off
  707. 22:43strong as soon as the market opened
  708. 22:44today. I explained it quickly before
  709. 22:46the regular market session at 9 a.m.
  710. 22:48That they would rise because of this.
  711. 22:50They opened with a gap up this morning
  712. 22:52and then showed a bit of a retreat, but
  713. 22:54in reality, they move in tandem with
  714. 22:56SpaceX. If you really break down why
  715. 22:58SpaceX went up, it wasn't because of
  716. 23:00aerospace, but because of AI sector
  717. 23:01revenue. If you look at SpaceX's future
  718. 23:05goals, their aim is to sell plenty of
  719. 23:08AI data center computing infrastructure
  720. 23:10and, ultimately, build space-based data
  721. 23:13centers. In any case, that is
  722. 23:15definitely the main goal. So, in the
  723. 23:17end, it’s shifting over here, and
  724. 23:18these guys were extremely strong today
  725. 23:20as well. You understand the structure,
  726. 23:21right? The way it’s shifting over
  727. 23:22like this. They were pushed back in the
  728. 23:23morning, but most of them stayed strong
  729. 23:25until the market closed. So, it’s a
  730. 23:26situation where it’s inevitably
  731. 23:28connected like this. And since
  732. 23:31President Trump has the midterms coming
  733. 23:33up on November 3rd, there is constant
  734. 23:35talk that the end of the Russia-Ukraine
  735. 23:37war is imminent because he wants to end
  736. 23:39the war quickly. Actually, Ukraine has
  737. 23:42no intention of ending the war right
  738. 23:44now. Russia doesn't seem to have much
  739. 23:46interest either, but Trump is telling
  740. 23:47them to finish it quickly. So, the U.S.
  741. 23:49position and the Ukrainian position are
  742. 23:50a bit different. The U.S. says this. Do
  743. 23:53you know how much money the U.S. has
  744. 23:55sent to Ukraine, combining the weapons
  745. 23:57supported directly and the indirect
  746. 23:59support Trump provided? It's over 400
  747. 24:02trillion won. They’ve given them over
  748. 24:03350 billion dollars. But if the war
  749. 24:05drags on, aren't you just using my
  750. 24:07money? You won't be able to pay it back
  751. 24:08later anyway. Why? Ukraine’s economic
  752. 24:10power is quite low, and even before the
  753. 24:13war, it was the poorest country in
  754. 24:15Eastern Europe. They have no money.
  755. 24:16Them. It’s even so corrupt that if
  756. 24:19you look at the global corruption index
  757. 24:20, they are in the top tier. They are so
  758. 24:23corrupt, and since you have no
  759. 24:24intention of paying it back after the
  760. 24:26war and you have no money if the war
  761. 24:27drags on, we're footing the bill, so
  762. 24:29why keep dragging it out? The U.S. is
  763. 24:31right, too. That’s why they’re
  764. 24:32telling them to finish it quickly, and
  765. 24:34Ukraine’s position is this. Trump is
  766. 24:36trying to force an end to the war to
  767. 24:38stabilize oil prices since the election
  768. 24:40is not far off. Ukraine's stance isn't
  769. 24:42exactly wrong either. Anyway, that's
  770. 24:44the state of affairs for Ukraine. Trump
  771. 24:46appointed a special envoy to meet with
  772. 24:49officials in Ukraine and Russia to talk
  773. 24:52, and that envoy is Keith Kellogg, and
  774. 24:55there are reports today that he will
  775. 24:58meet with Putin. Before, they only met
  776. 25:01with working-level or high-ranking
  777. 25:02officials to discuss a general
  778. 25:04direction, but now there is talk that
  779. 25:05he might meet Putin to deliver a peace
  780. 25:07negotiation proposal. Trump is trying
  781. 25:10to force an end to the war before the
  782. 25:12election, which is why related stocks
  783. 25:14moved a bit today. As you know, if you
  784. 25:17look at the structure of the war,
  785. 25:18Russia has taken some of Ukraine's land
  786. 25:20as you see here. Russia is currently
  787. 25:23occupying about 20%of Ukraine's entire
  788. 25:25territory. So, what Russia wants is to
  789. 25:27keep this land, and from Ukraine's
  790. 25:29perspective, this was originally their
  791. 25:30land and they want it back, but from
  792. 25:32Russia's perspective, there is no
  793. 25:34reason to give it up. So, the European
  794. 25:36Union is currently proposing a way to
  795. 25:38mediate this, and it’s basically
  796. 25:39saying, "Hey Ukraine, honestly, you
  797. 25:41can't get this back, so just cleanly
  798. 25:43give it up, okay?""Then, whether you
  799. 25:45join NATO or not, let’s talk about
  800. 25:47that later.""It’s already deadlocked
  801. 25:49anyway, so Ukraine can’t break
  802. 25:50through and Russia isn't advancing
  803. 25:52either." So, the picture is moving
  804. 25:53toward just acknowledging this
  805. 25:54situation, but Ukraine can't bring
  806. 25:56itself to do it. Because if President
  807. 25:57Zelenskyy signs that deal, there’s a
  808. 25:59high possibility he’ll be branded a
  809. 26:00traitor who sold out his country. He is
  810. 26:02a politician, after all. Anyway, that's
  811. 26:03why these deals keep coming up. And the
  812. 26:06U.S. is currently pulling back a lot on
  813. 26:08helping Ukraine. Ukraine uses the U.S.
  814. 26:11Patriot system for air defense; did you
  815. 26:12know the U.S. isn't providing them
  816. 26:14right now? They are trying not to give
  817. 26:16weapons to Ukraine at the moment.
  818. 26:17They’re really not giving them, and
  819. 26:18there was a lot of talk when they even
  820. 26:19restricted Starlink access before. So
  821. 26:21they are saying they won't or can't
  822. 26:23help anymore, and Ukraine has no choice
  823. 26:24. They can't fight the war without the
  824. 26:26U.S. So, in reality, the U.S. is the
  825. 26:28one in charge right now. And looking at
  826. 26:30it from our country’s perspective,
  827. 26:31President Yoon Suk-yeol said yesterday
  828. 26:32that the Korean stock market is very
  829. 26:34undervalued and that necessary measures
  830. 26:35will be taken soon. I feel like there
  831. 26:37needs to be some kind of structural
  832. 26:39reform at the government level. As I
  833. 26:41mentioned before, when there is extreme
  834. 26:43concentration in specific stocks,
  835. 26:45pouring gasoline on a burning house is
  836. 26:46what these KOSDAQ leverage or
  837. 26:48single-stock leverage products do, and
  838. 26:50the statistics came out today. Since
  839. 26:52the launch of the Samsung Electronics
  840. 26:54leverage ETF, there has been 6.3
  841. 26:55trillion won in losses over the last
  842. 26:56two and a half months. Realized losses
  843. 26:58are 2.3 trillion won. That means there
  844. 27:00are 4 trillion won in paper losses held
  845. 27:01by people who are just holding on. And
  846. 27:03in the case of SK Hynix, there’s a 2x
  847. 27:05leverage product, right? Do you know
  848. 27:07it’s down 89%from its peak? It’s 90
  849. 27:10%. 90. Samsung Electronics is better
  850. 27:12off; I think it’s down about 75%. So,
  851. 27:15in reality, no matter where you bought
  852. 27:16it, your money just melted away, and
  853. 27:18while the index did fall a lot, it is
  854. 27:20certainly becoming a problem. I don't
  855. 27:22know when the measures will be released
  856. 27:24, but since they said they would
  857. 27:26announce them once the relevant
  858. 27:27ministries determine a precise market
  859. 27:29assessment and a response strategy, we
  860. 27:32don't know the exact date. And
  861. 27:34yesterday and today, there has been a
  862. 27:36lot of talk about individual stocks,
  863. 27:37all about G2Power, so let me explain
  864. 27:38that to you. People were talking about
  865. 27:41this deal everywhere all day long, even
  866. 27:43this morning. G2Power is good, isn't it
  867. 27:44? So, what they originally do is this "
  868. 27:47Inno-Lamp" platform, and you can just
  869. 27:49think of it as a long-acting platform.
  870. 27:52It’s a concept that extends the
  871. 27:53duration, so instead of taking
  872. 27:54something daily, you take it once a
  873. 27:56week, or instead of weekly, once a
  874. 27:57month, making it a long-acting
  875. 27:58injection; they signed an evaluation
  876. 28:00agreement for the InnoLamp platform,
  877. 28:01which is a long-acting injectable drug
  878. 28:03platform, with a Chinese company called
  879. 28:05UBT. They entered into an evaluation
  880. 28:06agreement for the InnoLamp platform.
  881. 28:07The idea is that UBT will evaluate it,
  882. 28:09and if it looks good, they will buy it.
  883. 28:11To be precise, they haven’t bought it
  884. 28:13yet; they’re saying, "Your product
  885. 28:14seems really good, so let me verify it
  886. 28:16properly myself." It means, "If I check
  887. 28:18it and it's good, I’ll pay a large
  888. 28:19sum to buy it from you." They aren’t
  889. 28:21buying it yet. It is an evaluation
  890. 28:22agreement. Since evaluation results
  891. 28:25often lead to a main contract or a
  892. 28:26major deal, this itself can be seen as
  893. 28:28a significantly positive development.
  894. 28:30However, we need to think carefully
  895. 28:32about what kind of company this Chinese
  896. 28:34firm UBT is; they are a company that
  897. 28:36develops obesity treatment candidates.
  898. 28:38And they aren't as small a company as
  899. 28:39you might think. For instance, look at
  900. 28:41the drug called UBT-251. It is an
  901. 28:44obesity treatment candidate. It was
  902. 28:45sold to Novo Nordisk last March. For
  903. 28:48free, essentially. The top two players
  904. 28:49in the global obesity treatment market
  905. 28:51are definitely Eli Lilly and Novo
  906. 28:53Nordisk, and as you all know, Novo
  907. 28:55Nordisk sells Wegovy, while Eli Lilly
  908. 28:57sells Mounjaro. You have to compare
  909. 28:59them carefully. Right now, Eli
  910. 29:00Lilly’s stock price is hitting a new
  911. 29:02high, even compared to Novo Nordisk.
  912. 29:03Novo Nordisk isn't able to catch up.
  913. 29:05Even though they are the top two, when
  914. 29:07you look at why Mounjaro is considered
  915. 29:09better than Wegovy, it's simple. Wegovy
  916. 29:11was set up as a single agonist from the
  917. 29:14start. And Mounjaro is a dual agonist.
  918. 29:17Losing weight is obviously good, but if
  919. 29:19you work on multiple mechanisms
  920. 29:21involved in weight loss at the same
  921. 29:23time, you’ll naturally lose more
  922. 29:26weight. So, if you look at the clinical
  923. 29:28data, Mounjaro actually results in more
  924. 29:30weight loss than Wegovy. Is there a
  925. 29:31huge price difference? There isn't much
  926. 29:33of a price difference. Then, from a
  927. 29:34consumer's perspective, they’re both
  928. 29:35taken once a week, so it's the same.
  929. 29:37Also, the ease of administration is
  930. 29:38almost similar. Since the most
  931. 29:40important thing is how much weight you
  932. 29:41actually lose, and Mounjaro works
  933. 29:43better, there's no reason to choose the
  934. 29:45other one. So the injectable market has
  935. 29:47shifted toward Mounjaro, and because
  936. 29:49Wegovy came out in pill form, which is
  937. 29:51currently being sold in the US. This
  938. 29:54one also sells well. It hasn't been
  939. 29:56approved in Korea yet, but ultimately,
  940. 29:57because one is a single agonist and the
  941. 29:59other is a dual agonist, the latter is
  942. 30:01bound to be better, and if so, isn't a
  943. 30:03triple agonist going to be even better
  944. 30:05than a dual agonist? So, are they
  945. 30:06making a triple agonist? Eli Lilly has
  946. 30:08something called Retatrutide, and a
  947. 30:10triple agonist will be out soon. From
  948. 30:12Novo's perspective, they've made a good
  949. 30:14product, but whenever they release
  950. 30:16something, Lilly's is always a bit
  951. 30:18better. They did release a good product
  952. 30:22, but since Lilly eventually captures
  953. 30:24the whole market over time, Novo's
  954. 30:26strategy now is to speed up their own
  955. 30:28triple agonist development. They have
  956. 30:31one in internal development. A triple
  957. 30:32agonist. They are taking a two-track
  958. 30:35approach to the triple agonist because
  959. 30:37the target differs depending on which
  960. 30:39part it acts on. They have a pipeline
  961. 30:42under internal development and one
  962. 30:44other triple agonist. The one Novo is
  963. 30:46making. Do you know what that is? It's
  964. 30:48UBT-251. They bought that. Ultimately,
  965. 30:52it's a triple agonist, and it's UBT-251
  966. 30:54, which Novo bought to catch up to Eli
  967. 30:57Lilly. How much did they pay for it?
  968. 31:00They bought it for $ 2 billion, and the
  969. 31:02upfront payment was a whopping $ 200
  970. 31:04million. You know the concept of a $
  971. 31:05200 million upfront payment, right? The
  972. 31:07deal size isn't the only thing that
  973. 31:08matters—though a big one is good—
  974. 31:10but how much they pay upfront is
  975. 31:11crucial, and they received $ 200
  976. 31:13million in cash just as an initial
  977. 31:14payment. That's a huge deal. They
  978. 31:17bought it. But the important thing is
  979. 31:19that UBT, which made it, took G 2 G's
  980. 31:21InnoLAMP platform to evaluate it. Of
  981. 31:24course, if you look at the disclosure
  982. 31:26of the contract, the detailed terms are
  983. 31:27private. But just think about it. UBT
  984. 31:29bought it. For them, the main thing is
  985. 31:32UBT-251. Obviously, it's the main one
  986. 31:33because it sold for the highest price.
  987. 31:35But if they attach the InnoLAMP
  988. 31:37platform to it to make it long-acting,
  989. 31:39it would be a massive success. Although
  990. 31:43they didn't specify which substance
  991. 31:44they would apply it to for evaluation
  992. 31:46when they bought it, common sense
  993. 31:47suggests they would attach it here. To
  994. 31:49251. And if the data is good after
  995. 31:51attaching it. Then the possibility of
  996. 31:54Novo buying G2G Bio's InnoLAMP directly
  997. 31:56becomes extremely high; since Novo is
  998. 31:58already pushing this two-track strategy
  999. 32:00by buying this, they are likely to buy
  1000. 32:01it directly, and since they are
  1001. 32:03platforms anyway, other pharmaceutical
  1002. 32:05companies will see it and say, "That
  1003. 32:06long-acting InnoLAMP looks good, I
  1004. 32:08should buy it too," leading to a
  1005. 32:09structure where it's sold to many
  1006. 32:11places simultaneously—that's what's
  1007. 32:13been discussed continuously over the
  1008. 32:14past couple of days. That's why it
  1009. 32:17soared today. Since this topic kept
  1010. 32:19coming up, I gave a brief explanation.
  1011. 32:21Also, this is a report that came out;
  1012. 32:22it must have been in the JoongAng Ilbo
  1013. 32:24this morning. "New recruits who never
  1014. 32:25leave work are coming." Samsung's "24-
  1015. 32:27Hour" robot will be released soon. It
  1016. 32:28seems it will be announced at next
  1017. 32:30year's CES. For reference, at the start
  1018. 32:33of this year at CES 2024, the
  1019. 32:35undisputed leader was physical AI, and
  1020. 32:37since robots are the leaders in
  1021. 32:39physical AI, related stocks skyrocketed
  1022. 32:41as much as fivefold starting from last
  1023. 32:44summer and autumn. So, with CES 2025
  1024. 32:46coming up next January, what will the
  1025. 32:48key keyword be then? Naturally, it's
  1026. 32:50physical AI. And it's robots again. So,
  1027. 32:51Samsung Electronics is planning to go
  1028. 32:54there and showcase this "24-Hour" robot
  1029. 32:56. As I've mentioned before, the problem
  1030. 32:58with robots right now is that because
  1031. 33:00their bodies are small, they can't fit
  1032. 33:01large batteries, so the battery life
  1033. 33:02doesn't last very long. That's why they
  1034. 33:04are trying to use solid-state batteries
  1035. 33:06to extend it. They're trying to keep
  1036. 33:08putting them in, and among existing
  1037. 33:10lithium batteries, ternary batteries
  1038. 33:12are being used a lot because they have
  1039. 33:14high energy density; let’s talk about
  1040. 33:16Hyundai Motor Group as an example.
  1041. 33:18Hyundai’s humanoid robot is currently
  1042. 33:20Atlas. If you put this on an automobile
  1043. 33:23factory line, how many hours does it
  1044. 33:25take to go from 100%full charge to 0%?
  1045. 33:27It can't even last four hours right now
  1046. 33:28. But, remember, I mentioned this
  1047. 33:29before. Package loading and unloading
  1048. 33:31is the most physically demanding labor,
  1049. 33:33and if you use it for that, it consumes
  1050. 33:35more electricity when lifting heavy
  1051. 33:37objects, so it can't even last two
  1052. 33:39hours. Then how can you use this to
  1053. 33:40replace humans? That’s why the
  1054. 33:42discussion now is to switch to a
  1055. 33:44swappable battery system. I mean, you
  1056. 33:46can't replace phone batteries these
  1057. 33:48days, but you could in the past, right?
  1058. 33:51So, just like charging them separately
  1059. 33:53and swapping them out before starting
  1060. 33:54work when they run low, since humanoids
  1061. 33:56move on their own anyway, there will be
  1062. 33:58battery stations. Then, if the battery
  1063. 34:01runs low there. The humanoid will
  1064. 34:03trudge over, lean its back against the
  1065. 34:05station, and it will remove the old
  1066. 34:07battery and insert a fully charged one.
  1067. 34:09So, how many minutes does this battery
  1068. 34:11swap take? It takes three minutes. The
  1069. 34:13plan is to run them 24 hours by
  1070. 34:14swapping every four hours for three
  1071. 34:15minutes. That's why this talk is
  1072. 34:17emerging; Samsung is trying to go with
  1073. 34:19this structure, and both Atlas and
  1074. 34:21Optimus are moving toward that kind of
  1075. 34:22design now. That's what came out. So as
  1076. 34:25soon as this report hit in the morning,
  1077. 34:27these stocks surged, but as expected,
  1078. 34:28when the index crashed, they just
  1079. 34:30melted away. So, when the composite
  1080. 34:32index drops by 4%or 5%, all stocks just
  1081. 34:35get crushed. But it can't be helped.
  1082. 34:37The important thing is that when stocks
  1083. 34:39that reacted to certain news before the
  1084. 34:40index crashed start to rise, that news
  1085. 34:42suddenly becomes a focus again. For
  1086. 34:44example, G2 Power or other individual
  1087. 34:46stocks in the past; on the day the news
  1088. 34:48came out, they fell due to the index
  1089. 34:49crash, but then suddenly took off two
  1090. 34:51or three days later. There might be no
  1091. 34:53news for two or three days, and when
  1092. 34:55you check why they are rising, it's
  1093. 34:56because the news from two days ago is
  1094. 34:58being highlighted again; that kind of
  1095. 34:59pattern is likely to happen again. So
  1096. 35:01please keep that in mind. As for the
  1097. 35:02sectors today, the market basically
  1098. 35:04melted yesterday, so aside from a few
  1099. 35:05hair loss-related stocks, there wasn't
  1100. 35:06much. The ones that are doing well
  1101. 35:08today are semiconductors, power
  1102. 35:09equipment, the space and aerospace
  1103. 35:10stocks I mentioned earlier, the bio
  1104. 35:12sector I just talked about, and solar
  1105. 35:13power—though for that sector, only AI
  1106. 35:15data center-related stocks went up.
  1107. 35:16Actually, it's hard to say that solar
  1108. 35:17power has gone up. Space, AI, data
  1109. 35:19centers, oil stocks, or the Ukraine
  1110. 35:21reconstruction themes I mentioned
  1111. 35:23earlier; that's about it. Since the
  1112. 35:25explanation is over now, let's look at
  1113. 35:27the charts of individual stocks and see
  1114. 35:30how they are moving. First, let me show
  1115. 35:31you the US healthcare stocks for a
  1116. 35:33moment. It's good to start by looking
  1117. 35:35at them first. Because you need to see
  1118. 35:36it with your own eyes. Looking at
  1119. 35:38representative US healthcare stocks
  1120. 35:40like Eli Lilly, or Merck, a famous name
  1121. 35:42in cancer drugs. And if you look at
  1122. 35:44companies like Johnson&Johnson or
  1123. 35:46Moderna, pay close attention to Moderna
  1124. 35:47. Looking at the recent stock price,
  1125. 35:50Moderna is at a record high. AbbVie is
  1126. 35:52at a record high. Eli Lilly is at a
  1127. 35:54record high. And while Merck isn't at a
  1128. 35:56record high yet, it's already near one.
  1129. 35:58It's almost there. If two bullish
  1130. 35:59candles appear, it'll reach a new high.
  1131. 36:00So US healthcare has a lot of big-cap
  1132. 36:03companies like those. That's why when
  1133. 36:05US AI stocks and semiconductors were
  1134. 36:06falling, healthcare went up on its own,
  1135. 36:08which is why people are saying money is
  1136. 36:10moving in that direction. And if you
  1137. 36:12look at the S&P 500 healthcare ETF, it
  1138. 36:13hit a record high yesterday too. Also,
  1139. 36:16representative stocks like IBB or XBI
  1140. 36:18have moved up to this point; they
  1141. 36:20aren't at record highs, but the trend
  1142. 36:22is very strong anyway. It's
  1143. 36:24incomparable to semiconductors, so you
  1144. 36:26can see a picture where a lot of funds
  1145. 36:27are already moving over there. And what
  1146. 36:30I’ve been saying about Korea since
  1147. 36:31last week is not necessarily that we
  1148. 36:33should buy Celltrion, but that we need
  1149. 36:35to keep watching the "Cell-Tri-Ban"
  1150. 36:37group; they are still holding their
  1151. 36:38trend well and looking strong. This
  1152. 36:40time, we need to see a record high. And
  1153. 36:42as I mentioned earlier, there was that
  1154. 36:44individual news for G2 Power. So it's
  1155. 36:46in a position where it's rising well as
  1156. 36:48the trading volume explodes. The
  1157. 36:50possibility of additional strong
  1158. 36:51momentum is quite high. And besides
  1159. 36:53them, Alteogen was rising today but it
  1160. 36:56was a bit disappointing, though it
  1161. 36:57still has its head up now. Stocks like
  1162. 36:59those need to rise significantly.
  1163. 37:02Otherwise, Boronoi, OliX, they were
  1164. 37:03decent, and OscoTec, DPHARMATECH, and
  1165. 37:05others like them move in almost the
  1166. 37:07same way in the big picture, so you can
  1167. 37:09refer to that part, and earlier I
  1168. 37:11mentioned SpaceX, so you should look at
  1169. 37:13aerospace and space data centers. Then
  1170. 37:16for aerospace, Almac, Almac has been
  1171. 37:18quite decent recently. Sphere, HVM. HVM
  1172. 37:23, Kencoa Aerospace, Nara Space, you
  1173. 37:24know all of them, right? The stocks are
  1174. 37:27all similar. The lightest one is
  1175. 37:29originally Nara Space, but its market
  1176. 37:30cap is actually too small, so it's hard
  1177. 37:32to buy, and in terms of fundamentals,
  1178. 37:34the ones above are much better. And
  1179. 37:36moving on to space data centers,
  1180. 37:38naturally, you have Daejoo Electronic
  1181. 37:40Materials, OCI Holdings, and if you add
  1182. 37:42Sunic System, those are the ones. They
  1183. 37:45are also repeating the pattern of
  1184. 37:46jumping up strongly, then dying the
  1185. 37:48next day, jumping up again, and dying
  1186. 37:49again, but once this box opens up, they
  1187. 37:51will likely take off from then on. You
  1188. 37:53can just look at them to that extent,
  1189. 37:55and if you look at the Ukraine
  1190. 37:57reconstruction theme, there are
  1191. 37:58familiar stocks. Jeonjin Construction
  1192. 38:02Robot, or Haein, or HD Hyundai
  1193. 38:03Construction Equipment, and such; Haein
  1194. 38:05had individual news today, and Haein
  1195. 38:06hit the daily upper limit today. It is
  1196. 38:09also a Ukraine reconstruction theme.
  1197. 38:11These stocks were stuck at the bottom
  1198. 38:14and are now rising, and if you look at
  1199. 38:16robotics, I mentioned CES earlier, like
  1200. 38:19Rainbow Robotics, and if you buy SPG,
  1201. 38:22Everybot, or Hyundai Mus, or Halla Cast
  1202. 38:25, there are quite a few good ones. But
  1203. 38:29personally, no matter how much I study
  1204. 38:32robots in my head, while there are many
  1205. 38:34good ones, I can't buy them all, so I
  1206. 38:37only see three that are the best. There
  1207. 38:40are the top three I always sing praises
  1208. 38:42about, and I hold all of those top
  1209. 38:43three. There are exactly three, and
  1210. 38:44those are my top three. They look the
  1211. 38:46best to me, so I even sold other things
  1212. 38:48yesterday to buy more. Anyway, the ones
  1213. 38:51here are decent stocks, some are
  1214. 38:52included here and some are not, but
  1215. 38:54won't robotics continue to be good? No
  1216. 38:57matter how I look at it, robots are
  1217. 38:59truly great, and at the current price,
  1218. 39:01I see almost no risk, and since there
  1219. 39:03is no risk, it would be meaningless if
  1220. 39:05they don't rise. But there are also
  1221. 39:07many catalysts laid out for them to
  1222. 39:09rise. And if you look at the past, the
  1223. 39:10CES mention from earlier was about this
  1224. 39:12spot here. You can see that they all
  1225. 39:14had huge price surges in January of
  1226. 39:16this year, right? The ones that didn't
  1227. 39:18rise as much are up three or four times
  1228. 39:19, and there are many that went up ten
  1229. 39:20times. Ultimately, the time it rose was
  1230. 39:22when Physical AI became the leader at
  1231. 39:24CES 2024, and the one that received a
  1232. 39:25lot of attention from foreign media
  1233. 39:27here was, as I mentioned earlier,
  1234. 39:28Hyundai Motor Group's Atlas. I'm not
  1235. 39:31sure if you remember, but this was
  1236. 39:33where Atlas did a backflip. So, from
  1237. 39:35then on, people said, "Oh, this
  1238. 39:36humanoid is better than Tesla's," and
  1239. 39:38as it gained a lot of attention from
  1240. 39:39foreign media, Hyundai Motor Group and
  1241. 39:41even LG Electronics went up. Then it
  1242. 39:43started to slip, but if you look here
  1243. 39:45in the middle, around May or June. It
  1244. 39:47rose once more around this time this
  1245. 39:48year, and this was when our
  1246. 39:49automotive-related stocks, since Boston
  1247. 39:51Dynamics belongs to Hyundai Motor Group
  1248. 39:53, and companies like LG Electronics
  1249. 39:54went up. This was the final market
  1250. 39:57rally, and what happened during this
  1251. 39:58time was Jensen Huang's chicken dinner
  1252. 40:00meetings; he kept coming to Korea,
  1253. 40:01meeting Chairman Euisun Chung and Naver
  1254. 40:03Chairman Yijeong Lee, singing the
  1255. 40:04praises of Physical AI, and this was
  1256. 40:06when that happened. Since then, it has
  1257. 40:08been plummeting for four months. Right?
  1258. 40:10You understand, right? And since next
  1259. 40:13year's CES is in January, you can
  1260. 40:14consider that there are only about
  1261. 40:15three months left. Then, based on last
  1262. 40:18year, the rise started from the fall.
  1263. 40:21The full-scale rally began around
  1264. 40:23October. And compared to last year's—
  1265. 40:25I mean, this year's CES—there is a
  1266. 40:27high possibility that more visible
  1267. 40:29prototypes or mass-produced models
  1268. 40:31related to Physical AI will appear at
  1269. 40:33next year's CES. Technological progress
  1270. 40:35has been immense over the past year.
  1271. 40:37Originally, as of the first half of
  1272. 40:39this year, over 90%of the world's
  1273. 40:41humanoid robot production was in China,
  1274. 40:43but now, a huge number of latecomer
  1275. 40:45players are entering in terms of mass
  1276. 40:47production. So, there are stocks where
  1277. 40:50the number of actuators has already
  1278. 40:52started to explode because they are
  1279. 40:53supplying a lot to these companies, and
  1280. 40:55ultimately, it's just the beginning. It
  1281. 40:57used to be just based on anticipation,
  1282. 40:59like "I guess robots are the future."
  1283. 41:00If it used to rise because "This
  1284. 41:01company makes robots" or "They have
  1285. 41:02good technology," now it's, "Hey, they
  1286. 41:03say they're going to churn out 30,000
  1287. 41:05robots a year starting next year, and
  1288. 41:06this company supplies all the parts for
  1289. 41:07them." That's the kind of thing that's
  1290. 41:08going up now. So, you can think of
  1291. 41:10those companies as having already moved
  1292. 41:11far beyond just expectations and are
  1293. 41:13now seeing actual numbers being
  1294. 41:14recorded. So, if I cover this much
  1295. 41:16today, the explanation is finished.
  1296. 41:18Everything that came out today and
  1297. 41:20yesterday has been fully explained. You
  1298. 41:21worked hard again today. I will see you
  1299. 41:24on the day after tomorrow's broadcast.
  1300. 41:27I will see our premium members tomorrow
  1301. 41:29morning. You've worked very hard. Thank
  1302. 41:31you for your efforts.

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