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[주식] 261019 연말까지는 이 종목들만 보세요 — Transcript

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0:03Hello. This is Professor Han again.
0:05It's Monday, the start of the week, and
0:07the market movement was quite decent.
0:09Just before the market closed, the
0:11composite index rose further, with
0:14KOSPI up 1.76%and KOSDAQ around 1.78%.
0:16Both markets were doing just fine. But
0:18around 2 PM, the composite index hadn't
0:21risen by such a large margin yet. It
0:24was up less than 0.5%to 1%, but
0:26semiconductors rallied right before the
0:29close, pushing the index up. However,
0:32if you only look at the composite index
0:34today, while the market was good, it
0:36might not look like it was*that*good.
0:38Why is that? It’s because the
0:40movement was highly polarized by sector
0:42today. There were many sectors with
0:44high retail investor participation that
0:45showed great strength. For instance,
0:48secondary batteries, bio, solar, wind,
0:50aerospace, and robotics moved much more
0:52strongly, while semiconductor materials
0:54, components, and equipment lagged
0:55behind. So, excluding IT, if you look
0:59at sectors favored by retail investors,
1:02the market felt like the composite
1:05index had risen by 3-4%, making it a
1:07pretty good day. Since semiconductors
1:11melted down in the US market last
1:13Friday and most of the bad news over
1:15the weekend was centered on
1:17semiconductors, it was inevitable for
1:19IT to have a poor start. But the key
1:23point is that the domestic market still
1:25has a massive weighting for electronics
1:27, so if they start with a sharp
1:28gap-down, everything else starts off by
1:30taking a hit too. That’s why I
1:32mentioned at the market open that
1:34although only semiconductors had
1:36negative news causing the index to gap
1:38down, it was inevitable for everything
1:39to gap down together. I said it would
1:43be normal for IT to struggle while
1:45other sectors surged, and based on that
1:47, the market did indeed move normally.
1:50And if you look at the New York market
1:52last Friday, the Nasdaq fell
1:53particularly hard. It dropped by more
1:55than 2%. And the Philadelphia
1:57Semiconductor Index plummeted by a
1:59staggering 3.8%. In the past, if memory
2:02semiconductors or companies like Micron
2:05were weak, others like Broadcom or the
2:07CPU camp like AMD and Intel would hold
2:10up, but last Friday, the entire IT
2:12sector just melted down. Looking at the
2:16recent weakness, many new records are
2:18being set this year, and semiconductors
2:21have now marked one in the US in a
2:23negative sense. What is it? The
2:26Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has
2:27fallen for eight consecutive trading
2:29days, which is the first time this has
2:30happened since the 2008 financial
2:32crisis. It goes to show just how bad
2:33the IT sector is doing. There are
2:35actually no signs of the semiconductor
2:38industry itself breaking down; looking
2:40at statistics like sales volume, unit
2:42prices, DRAM spot prices, and contract
2:44prices, you don't see any picture of
2:46the industry collapsing at all. But
2:49what’s important here is the rotation
2:50of capital. This is what I explained
2:52last week, and it continues to be a
2:54prominent factor. So, to conclude, all
2:56the bad news was concentrated in
2:58semiconductors, and while
2:59semiconductors dropped significantly in
3:01the U.S. market, others didn't follow.
3:03That has been the biggest difference
3:04between the U.S. market and ours. In
3:06the U.S., when IT drops, only IT drops.
3:08In Korea, when the front-line collapses
3:10, everything goes down. But today, it
3:12moved a bit differently. So, taking a
3:15big picture view, today in Korea, aside
3:17from IT, the market was very close to
3:19being excellent. The index rose about
3:231.7%, which is strong, but it's fair to
3:24say it felt like it rose much more than
3:26that. And there were roughly two major
3:29sectors with positive news in the
3:31Korean stock market today. The first is
3:33secondary batteries. I mentioned
3:35something right before the market
3:36opened this morning at 9 o'clock. I
3:38said the biggest factor with positive
3:39momentum was secondary batteries. Today
3:41, secondary batteries moved strongly as
3:43the leader. As you'll see when I
3:45explain the details shortly, the
3:46material regarding secondary batteries
3:48is extremely good. But despite that,
3:50because the market broke in the morning
3:52, secondary batteries started with a
3:54gap down but then pushed all the way up
3:56, and another issue that gained
3:58traction during the session today was
3:59in solar power. Actually, the solar
4:01power news came out after the market
4:03closed last Friday. But it gained a lot
4:05of attention during the session today,
4:06so solar stocks also rose quite a bit.
4:09So, the strong performers today were,
4:11as a result, secondary batteries, bio,
4:12solar power, aerospace, robots, and
4:14some of the more dull sectors in KOSPI
4:16like automobiles and department stores.
4:19Therefore, movements were quite split
4:20by sector today, and while it looks
4:22like things rose a lot, there are
4:23actually many stocks that didn't rise
4:24at all today. The fortunate thing is
4:27that because we hold all the leaders,
4:29it was a day where we could feel a much
4:30stronger sense of gain than the actual
4:32market increase. I personally don't
4:35have any semiconductors. So, it was a
4:37day where those who only trade IT
4:38wouldn't have felt the market's
4:40strength at all. And looking at the
4:42comprehensive indices today, let’s
4:43first take a look at the KOSPI and
4:45KOSDAQ. Looking at the KOSPI and KOSDAQ
4:48just for today, both rose by 1.7%, so
4:50they appear to be moving almost
4:52identically, but consider the recent
4:54correction range, right? This section
4:56here. In this section, the KOSDAQ fell
5:00less and it is rising faster. Broadly
5:02speaking, they look similar, but there
5:04are some differences. When they were
5:06pulling back, on days when the market
5:08rested or fell, small and medium-sized
5:10stocks often picked up the slack, and
5:12while the KOSPI hasn't seen a recovery
5:14in trading volume, this index had
5:15already seen its volume increase. This
5:17one hadn't reached this point yet. So,
5:20in the end, it’s a picture where a
5:21rotation is finally emerging here, and
5:23the most positive takeaway from today's
5:25market is that the news was reflected
5:27very well. So, having addressed that,
5:30let's start with today's main topic.
5:33Before we do that, my website is
5:35continuously being upgraded.
5:37haninvest.co.kr I start my morning by
5:41checking it, so let's take a look.
5:43haninvest.co.kr, you know how to access
5:46it, right? Just search for my name on
5:49Naver and click on the official website
5:51link to enter. Let's briefly look at
5:53the morning briefing here. The S&P 500
5:56from last Friday is here, and since
5:58semiconductors were the most important
6:00factor, the biggest impact on their
6:02decline was, as expected, the talk that
6:04recouping AI investment costs might be
6:06difficult. It categorizes the
6:07importance very well. And it's a market
6:09that asks about capital procurement
6:11rather than just capital demand.
6:12Currently, bond yields are already high
6:15, raising the market's required rate of
6:17return, and naturally, AI semiconductor
6:19firms are investing heavily but not
6:21making money yet, so investors are
6:23demanding higher interest rates due to
6:25the uncertainty of the future. So, that
6:28point is well covered. I check this
6:31personally every morning, so we can
6:33start with that, and regarding market
6:35analysis, there are too many reports to
6:38read them all, so I look for those with
6:40high views or high importance. I pick
6:44the top five, select them myself, and
6:46upload them, so the report content goes
6:48up. When the market closes, the
6:50featured stocks of the day go up, and
6:52what I mentioned in last week's
6:53broadcast was posted on the 14th. Last
6:55week, I said secondary batteries are
6:56the number one sector for net income
6:58growth in 2027. Then, is there no net
6:59income growth for semiconductors next
7:01year? There is. It’s just that until
7:03the third quarter of this year, the
7:04average selling price (ASP) of memory
7:06semiconductors continued to rise
7:07rapidly, but from the third quarter, I
7:09said it's not that they aren't rising,
7:11but that the rate of growth is slowing
7:12down. Even so, semiconductor net income
7:14growth is still ranked about third next
7:16year. I’ve checked all the consensus
7:17forecasts. But number one is secondary
7:19batteries. Here is the core point for
7:21secondary batteries today. AI power
7:23investment is changing battery
7:24performance. As the AI industry grows,
7:26ESS is the most critical factor. When I
7:28explained this a while ago, I talked a
7:30lot about UPS (Uninterruptible Power
7:32Supply) and BPU (Battery Backup). Since
7:34the leaders for each part of this
7:36technology are obvious, I once spent
7:38over 30 minutes explaining it. If you
7:40need additional information, you can
7:42read what I posted about two or three
7:44weeks ago. And when it comes to North
7:46American production capacity, the U.S.
7:47is absolutely the most important. Most
7:49AI data centers—at least 60-70%—are
7:51being built in the U.S., with China
7:53coming in second. But there’s no room
7:56for Korean companies in the Chinese
7:58value chain. They only give orders to
8:00Chinese companies. So, we must look at
8:02the U.S. market, the global leader,
8:04where I mentioned LG Energy Solution is
8:06building a North American base for over
8:0850GW of LFP batteries for ESS by
8:10year-end. All ESS (Energy Storage
8:12Systems) use LFP batteries. China held
8:16a 90%share of the LFP market, which
8:18dropped to around 70%last year, and our
8:20companies have started to capture that
8:23remaining share. The core point is that
8:26they are filling the gap left by the EV
8:28slowdown with ESS. The leaders in ESS
8:30are LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI,
8:32LNF, and POSCO Future M; these are the
8:34top four. They are the top four. These
8:35four are definitively the leaders.
8:37I’ve written about this before, and I
8:39will continue to update it periodically
8:41. The reason I brought this up just now
8:44is because it will come up today, and
8:47it will be easier to understand if you
8:49read that first. Now, let’s get
8:52started. The weakness last Friday was,
8:54of course, due to semiconductors—
8:55Micron and AMD—and the difference
8:57from before is that when one fell, the
8:58other used to hold up. The CPU camp.
9:00But this time, they all just held hands
9:02and took a complete dive; they fell
9:04significantly. Those who held a lot of
9:06semiconductors must have had a headache
9:07over the weekend, and even if you
9:09didn't have any, you should be worried
9:11because the domestic market breaks
9:12whenever semiconductors do. But today,
9:14that wasn’t the case at all. Looking
9:17at how others performed as
9:18semiconductors fell: financial stocks
9:20and healthcare. And there was talk
9:22again today in the U.S. that global
9:25hedge funds are dumping AI and moving
9:27everything into healthcare. If you look
9:30at the actual fund flows, they are
9:31indeed shifting heavily in that
9:32direction. Right now, their stock
9:34prices are performing very well, or
9:35sectors like energy, utilities,
9:36defensive stocks, and consumer staples
9:38have been doing just fine. In any case,
9:40most of what I have to talk about is
9:41concentrated on semiconductors.
9:42That’s because all the bad news is
9:43coming from that side. Broadly speaking
9:45, there are about two main negative
9:47factors for semiconductors, so let’s
9:49take a quick look at them. As expected,
9:51the problem is CoreWeave. At one point,
9:53the yield on CoreWeave’s corporate
9:55bonds maturing in 2031 surpassed 16%.
9:57What does that mean? It means that for
10:00CoreWeave, which needs a lot of capital
10:02and has to raise funds, the cost of
10:04borrowing is becoming way too expensive
10:06. The fact that it exceeded 16%and the
10:095-year CDS premium crossed 12%means the
10:12bond market sees a very high
10:14probability of CoreWeave defaulting.
10:16You won't be able to hold out anyway.
10:18So, I can't lend to you. You can think
10:20of the CDS premium mentioned here as a
10:22risk premium, and we have government
10:24bonds, right? For government bonds,
10:26they use the CDS premium as a benchmark
10:28to see when a country might go bankrupt
10:30, default, or declare a moratorium. So,
10:34put simply, if the CDS premium rises
10:35significantly, it means the probability
10:37of this entity failing and not being
10:39able to pay back its debt is increasing
10:41. So, the probability of them not being
10:43able to pay is rising. CDS premium is a
10:46kind of insurance fee; if they go
10:48bankrupt and can't pay back the money,
10:50the insurance is essentially someone
10:52else paying it for you. But it means
10:54the insurance premiums are becoming
10:55extremely expensive. Naturally, if a
10:57country isn't going to collapse, the
10:58insurance premium would be cheap.
10:59Because there’s no way they’ll go
10:59bankrupt. So, this keeps rising, which
11:01means the probability of a CoreWeave
11:03default within five years has already
11:05exceeded 60%. Serious, right? So,
11:07funding issues are a problem,
11:09especially for neo-cloud companies.
11:11It’s not just neo-cloud companies
11:13that invest heavily in data centers;
11:14big tech firms do it too. Like Apple,
11:17Meta, or Microsoft, for example. But
11:19the situation isn't that serious for
11:21them yet. They have plenty of cash and
11:23good credit ratings, so their interest
11:25rates aren't that high, whereas these
11:26others have no earnings to begin with.
11:28That’s why the research report
11:30released last week suggested that these
11:32ones would die first. It’s the same
11:34thing. The one I explained before. Then
11:35, does that mean big tech companies
11:37have zero problems? No, they don’t.
11:38They have serious problems too. What
11:40that means is that even though big tech
11:42has a higher credit rating than
11:43neo-cloud companies, making their bond
11:45yields and corporate debt financing
11:46costs relatively cheaper, their rates
11:48are also consistently rising. So, I
11:51looked at the value and price of bonds
11:52issued by tech companies over the past
11:54two years, and they are all just
11:56nosediving. This means that even if
11:58they aren't in a critical situation
11:59just yet, they are definitely facing
12:01some problems. If these guys are
12:02wobbling, what about the others? It
12:03means it’s hard for them to hold on.
12:06And Anthropic is in a position where it
12:08needs to raise $ 60 billion for AI
12:09investment, and they approached
12:11Blackstone—the investment firm. This
12:14means they asked them to lend them
12:16money, promising a return of over 10%.
12:19The important thing is that while
12:20Anthropic and OpenAI are considered the
12:22top two in the global AI industry, even
12:24they are finding it very expensive to
12:25raise funds. It's basically saying that
12:27people don't really want to lend to
12:28them. Because the profitability of
12:29making money right now is very low.
12:30Also, as mentioned earlier, the
12:32Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has
12:33fallen for eight consecutive trading
12:35days. This sets a record in 18 years.
12:37In a rather negative sense. And there
12:38was one more piece of bad news; I said
12:40there were two, right? One was the
12:41financing issue here, and the second
12:43was the DeepSeek shock. Do you remember
12:45from back then? It’s been quite a
12:48while now, but when DeepSeek was first
12:50mentioned, the issue was that running
12:52U.S. AI models was too expensive due to
12:54token costs, so they created a low-cost
12:57model. The first signal that they would
13:00provide a cheaper alternative was
13:02likely the DeepSeek V1 model. That was
13:04when the company name DeepSeek first
13:06became known to the world. President Xi
13:08Jinping even called them in, gave them
13:09awards, and it was a huge deal. Calling
13:11them national talents for the country.
13:12In China, they really prioritize AI
13:15specialists and engineers. Anyway,
13:17DeepSeek periodically drops a shock,
13:19and this is the model released just
13:21recently on October 17th. It is an
13:23ultra-low-cost new model called V 4.1
13:26Flash 1017. Why 1017? Because it was
13:29released just the other day on October
13:3017th, that’s why the model is named
13:32that way. So, there are ultimately two
13:33things to look at. Is the performance
13:35keeping up well with existing models?
13:37Second, how much cheaper has the price
13:39become? We’re looking at the
13:40cost-effectiveness. In terms of
13:42performance, it has been confirmed that
13:44it performs slightly better than Claude
13:47Opus 5 and GPT 5.6 So-ul in coding and
13:49certain areas. This means it’s barely
13:51lagging behind in performance. Compared
13:53to the top-tier frontier models. For
13:55reference, since GPT 5.5 and GPT 6 are
13:57already out, to be exact, this is not
13:59the absolute top-tier model. It’s a
14:01model that is slightly older than the
14:03current flagship lineup. It’s not
14:05like it’s been out for years; this
14:06model was released just a few months
14:07ago. But compared to those, it
14:09doesn’t lose out at all. Now, let’s
14:11look at the cost—how cheap is it? The
14:14usage fee is set at $ 0.60 per 1
14:16million tokens. To give you an idea of
14:18how cheap that is, GPT is $ 5.00 to $
14:2020.00. So, at least in terms of cost,
14:24it’s a game changer. What used to
14:25cost 10,000 won to run can now be done
14:27for 200 or 300 won. That’s why even
14:30big US tech firms don’t use US models
14:32for simple, non-critical tasks that
14:34don’t require complex inference. They
14:37have no choice but to use Chinese ones
14:39now. Of course, for extremely complex,
14:42high-intelligence reasoning, they still
14:44use US models, but if you use US models
14:46for low-cost, entry-level tasks, the
14:48cost-effectiveness is too low, so the
14:51Chinese have delivered another shock.
14:54And this was the most powerful factor
14:55for secondary batteries. Taiwan’s
14:57DigiTimes reported exclusively that
14:59Chinese companies are pulling their
15:01businesses out of the US en masse. This
15:03is huge. Because I’ve mentioned it
15:05before. The biggest problem for
15:06secondary battery stocks is just one
15:08thing. Electric vehicles are simply not
15:10selling. The issue is that if battery
15:12cell companies have a low proportion of
15:14EV revenue relative to their total
15:16sales, it wouldn't matter. But these
15:18battery cell companies went all-in on
15:20EV batteries, assuming EVs would
15:21naturally sell well. Since cars aren't
15:23selling, the impact is bound to be just
15:25as massive. So, they’re wondering
15:27what to do since all these factories
15:29are built, leading them to sell off
15:31existing facilities or scale down
15:33operations—for example, running only
15:35two or three lines instead of ten.
15:37There’s no point in making them if
15:38they won’t sell. That’s why our
15:40Korean battery cell companies that
15:42formed joint ventures with US
15:43automakers like Ford or General Motors
15:45—you know, the joint corporations in
15:46the US—are in trouble. Some of those
15:49joint ventures have even fallen apart.
15:50Even companies like Ford are pulling
15:52back from joint ventures because, well,
15:54they also need to sell their EVs before
15:56they can produce batteries, and since
15:57they aren't selling, they’re trying
15:59to bail out. They are selling that
16:01poorly. If you look at the North
16:02American market specifically, EVs
16:04really aren't selling in the US. They
16:06are already experiencing negative
16:07growth. Fortunately, they are still
16:09selling somewhat in places like Europe,
16:11but the US market is so large that the
16:13collapse there is dealing a direct blow
16:15to them. So, the battery companies are
16:17now thinking, "I don't think there’s
16:19an answer for EVs." We don't even know
16:20when they might start selling well
16:22again. The US isn't even providing EV
16:24subsidies right now. So, looking
16:26elsewhere for new markets, we found
16:28that the fastest-growing sector is LFP
16:30batteries. These are the ones that go
16:33into data centers. So when we thought
16:35about selling there, what did I say our
16:37country's problem was? Our country
16:38lacks the technological edge in lithium
16:40iron phosphate, or LFP batteries. We
16:42can't make them as well as China.
16:43Really. Since China—represented by
16:45companies like CATL—makes the best
16:47LFP batteries in the world, they looked
16:50at the growing ESS market and saw that
16:52they only use LFP. They don't use
16:54ternary batteries at all. For ESS, it's
16:56less than 5%. You could basically say
16:58it doesn't exist. So China was happily
17:00selling away there, but the U.S.
17:01decided to cut them off, citing
17:03national security issues. They told
17:06Chinese companies to get out, but what
17:08method did they use in the past? The
17:11approach was to impose tariffs on
17:13Chinese batteries entering the country.
17:15The European Union also practices a lot
17:17of protectionist trade. They impose
17:19heavy tariffs on Chinese electric
17:20vehicles, and I mentioned that in the
17:22U.S., the tariff on Chinese EVs is over
17:23100%. They won't sell. But how do
17:25Chinese companies overcome this? There
17:28is a way to avoid tariffs. They just
17:31build factories locally. For instance,
17:34even Volkswagen in the EU is trying to
17:36withdraw and closing down its largest
17:38plants. The European auto market is in
17:41such bad shape that Chinese firms are
17:43squeezing in, saying "If you're
17:45shutting down, I'll buy it" or "I'll
17:47build my own factory," and they are
17:48building tons of Chinese EV plants
17:50locally in Europe. That way, they don't
17:53have to pay any tariffs. This creates a
17:55dilemma for Europe. It's clear that
17:59German automakers are struggling, so
18:01the biggest downside of Chinese
18:03companies entering is that the market
18:06gets cannibalized, but there are
18:08upsides too. They create jobs. Because
18:11the European economy is currently weak,
18:13Chinese companies are creating many
18:15manufacturing jobs, so there is still a
18:17heated debate over whether to support
18:19or oppose this. Many in the
18:20conservative camp think that's not
18:22right either, so what is President
18:24Trump's position? Reporters have asked
18:26Trump about this many times. "No
18:28Chinese electric vehicles.""Take these
18:30tariff bombs." But when Chinese EV
18:32companies actually said they would
18:34build factories in the U.S., do you
18:36know what President Trump’s reported
18:38stance is on this? He says let them
18:40build them. He thinks jobs are more
18:42important. The stance is currently
18:43divided within the conservative camp.
18:45So, looking at it so far, while there
18:47have been many issues, this is what the
18:49Trump administration is thinking. Look,
18:52for electric vehicles, if you build a
18:53factory and create jobs, that's okay.
18:55But anything directly related to
18:58national security, whether it's an EV
19:00or a factory, is a no-go. So, what are
19:02the national security criteria for the
19:04Trump administration? A representative
19:06example is energy-related sectors.
19:09Within the energy sector, there are
19:11chips used in transformers, circuit
19:13breakers, or power transmission lines.
19:16If those chips have Chinese spyware
19:18embedded, China could literally press a
19:20button and cause a blackout. Because of
19:22that issue, this isn't about
19:24cost-effectiveness. It’s not about
19:26jobs, either. Since it's a security
19:27issue, there are fields where the
19:29stance is simply "don't use anything
19:30Chinese," a blanket ban. You know what
19:32that is, right? It's batteries. So,
19:34companies building data centers in the
19:36U.S. are told, "When you install these,
19:38don't use Chinese-made parts." Some
19:42companies might say, "The tariffs are
19:43high, but we'll pay them and use the
19:45parts anyway." Because even with high
19:46tariffs, Chinese products are still
19:47cheaper. That's usually the case. But
19:50the Trump administration's stance is,
19:51when asked, "What about what we've
19:52already installed?" They respond, "I'll
19:54investigate those too, and if there's a
19:56problem, pull them all out." That’s
19:57how hardline they are. So, it's not
19:59just about slapping tariffs on
20:00secondary batteries. Now, look at this.
20:03There are reports that Chinese ESS
20:04companies are pulling out of the U.S.
20:06market en masse; although it's an
20:07exclusive report that needs
20:09verification, they really are shutting
20:10down operations. If Chinese companies
20:13are folding, it means this isn't just
20:15about tariffs. It means there’s
20:16simply no room for them to enter. For
20:18reference, as of last year, Chinese
20:20companies held a 90%share of the ESS
20:22battery market. But how can you turn 90
20:25into 0 overnight? It’s going to take
20:27some time. Even so, because they view
20:28it as a serious national security
20:30threat, the Trump administration's plan
20:32is to drive that to zero. When Europe
20:33regulates Chinese EVs, they use a quota
20:35system. They say, "We'll accept a
20:36certain number of tens of thousands per
20:38year.""Anything beyond that will face
20:39massive tariffs, or we won't accept any
20:41volume over the quota." In exchange,
20:43Europe's stance is, "You can sell
20:44freely within the quota," but the U.S.
20:46doesn't even have a quota. It's just, "
20:48No." That's it. A total, blank refusal.
20:50So, if this shrinks to zero, who is
20:51going to take that market share? This
20:54market is guaranteed to grow, and its
20:56growth rate is so fast that it has been
20:58covering the slump in the EV market for
21:00a while now. We absolutely need to
21:02capture this. So, from 90%, the Chinese
21:05share dropped to 70%in the first half
21:07of this year, which means someone took
21:10that 20%difference, and as I said, we
21:12took it all. This is something I talked
21:14about two or three months ago. It is an
21:17extension of that. Companies are saying
21:19there's really no answer, so they are
21:21leaving now. So, in conclusion, the
21:25keyword is energy storage systems for
21:27AI data centers, which exclusively use
21:30LFP batteries, so you should look at
21:32the LFP value chain; these four are the
21:35leaders, though there are others. So,
21:38these types vary depending on the
21:40keyword. This is what I showed you
21:42before. I told you to capture it. A few
21:45more keywords are being added; what I
21:47just explained was this, and sodium-ion
21:49batteries are for the Chinese CATL
21:51market. The related stocks for this, as
21:53I said, all-solid-state batteries are
21:55currently too expensive to put directly
21:56into electric vehicles. Even if you do,
21:58it would only be for supercars. You
21:59can't put them in mass-market models.
22:01That's why the robot market emerged as
22:02the alternative. There was even a
22:05report on this today. Among our
22:07all-solid-state cell companies, the
22:08leader is Samsung SDI, which has
22:10already decided to mass-produce
22:12starting next year, and it turns out
22:14they aren't planning to sell the volume
22:16to automakers. They say it's for robots
22:17. It's more cost-effective to use it
22:19there. They are planning to shift in
22:21that direction. This is why I told you
22:23to capture this part. That's almost it
22:25for the explanation of secondary
22:27batteries today. Adding to this, there
22:29was also news regarding solar power;
22:31last Friday, Korea time, China
22:33announced an amendment to its list of
22:34export bans or technology restrictions,
22:36and there's something new and
22:38significant included. That is solar
22:41power. Since the US keeps hitting China
22:44, China can't just keep taking the hits
22:46. They actually have many things they
22:48make better than the US. A prime
22:50example of that is solar power. Looking
22:53at the solar value chain like
22:55polysilicon, modules, and cells, there
22:57are many parts where Chinese companies
23:00account for over 80-90%of the global
23:02share. Polysilicon and such are well
23:04over 80-90%. This is what Chinese
23:06companies are good at, and the US
23:08actually needs solar power right now.
23:10The reason is that solar power is the
23:12core of AI data centers anyway. You
23:14can't just put them in space and run
23:16wind turbines. There is no air there.
23:18That's why the recent Starlink V3
23:20satellite launch was said to have a
23:22wing span almost equal to a Boeing 787;
23:24it's because they need to spread out
23:26solar panels widely. But the US doesn't
23:29have the solar technology. And even if
23:31they did, they can't mass-produce it at
23:32all. So, you have no choice but to use
23:35Chinese products. Look at what Trump
23:37said; he's blocking them
23:38indiscriminately to the point of saying
23:40"pull out all Chinese batteries," as
23:42mentioned earlier. Then does he not
23:44block solar power? Does solar power
23:45also not have security issues? Solar
23:47power does have security issues.
23:48Nevertheless, they don't completely
23:50exclude Chinese products. They just
23:52slap heavy tariffs on them. They don't
23:54tell the solar industry, "Hey, pull out
23:56everything that's already installed."
23:57The reason is that they are really hard
23:59to replace. China's market share is too
24:01high; like I said earlier, China holds
24:03a 90%share of LFP batteries. So,
24:05although they do hit them, they don't
24:07hit them too hard. China realized, "Oh,
24:10our technological superiority is
24:12definitely a merit," and they've been
24:14exporting solar panels or transferring
24:17solar-related technology to other
24:19countries for profit. They have already
24:21announced that they will block such
24:23activities. That was announced last
24:25Friday. From the U.S. perspective,
24:27there are a few solar fabs that Elon
24:29Musk is building. Large-scale ones. But
24:33the mass production equipment for those
24:35was already being negotiated by Tesla
24:37and SpaceX procurement executives who
24:38went to China. Previously, I mentioned
24:41this regarding President Trump. When he
24:44visited China and met with President Xi
24:46Jinping, he took American business
24:47leaders with him, and the one thing
24:49Elon Musk asked of China back then was
24:51this. To give them solar equipment. But
24:53China banned exports, so they can't
24:55provide it. That's why a few months ago
24:57, people were saying our domestic solar
24:58companies would receive the windfall
24:59benefits. It's the same thing. They
25:01announced an amendment to the
25:03technology export control list, and
25:04they don't intend to give this to the
25:06U.S. Since the U.S. needs this, they
25:07have to get it from someone, and if
25:09China won't provide it, there's only us
25:10. Of course, there are several decent
25:13leading companies globally, but they
25:16can't really compete on price with
25:19China, which benefits from economies of
25:22scale and illegal subsidies. There are
25:25few countries that can compete
25:26technologically. Countries that have a
25:27certain level of scale and capabilities
25:28are companies like these. That is why
25:30they took off today. So, there was a
25:32scenario where the news was reflected
25:34very well. And returning to the
25:36domestic stock market, looking at the
25:38last seven trading days, up to last
25:39Friday. Confirmed forced liquidations
25:41reached over 300 billion won in the
25:42KOSPI alone. Just look at the magnitude
25:44of the market's decline. Because this
25:45isn't normal for such a short period,
25:46it's natural that there would be a lot.
25:47Of forced liquidations. Regarding
25:48individual issues, Solus Advanced
25:50Materials announced plans to raise the
25:52average selling price of its battery
25:54foil by over 50%in the fourth quarter.
25:56In fact, there weren't many individual
25:57issues in the domestic market, both
25:59over the weekend and today. There were
26:01just many sector-specific issues based
26:02on global standards, mainly from the
26:03U.S. So, this is about as much as we
26:05need to look at. Therefore, Solus
26:06raising its Q4 battery foil ASP by
26:0840-50%is a key point. This is why the
26:10stock soared today. The reason it had
26:12to soar is not just because of its own
26:13news, but because the secondary battery
26:15sector as a whole was strong. Since the
26:17market was already strong, it went up
26:18even further, as the saying goes, "
26:18striking while the iron is hot." Also,
26:20among the things said in the domestic
26:22market today, especially by financial
26:23authorities, this was the most pleasing
26:25news. FSS Governor Lee Bok-hyun stated
26:27that he views Solidigm’s U.S. listing
26:29as a violation of regulations against
26:30double listing. It’s a bit tricky for
26:33the FSS to regulate this because with
26:35amendments to the Commercial Act and
26:37Capital Markets Act in Korea, there are
26:39now many brakes on double listings in
26:40the domestic stock market. It has
26:43become legally very strict, so
26:45companies that were preparing for
26:46double listings are even withdrawing
26:48them. But since Solidigm originally
26:51bought Intel’s NAND business, it
26:53could be seen as a U.S. company, and
26:55it’s not even listing in Korea. So,
26:58it’s a bit of an awkward situation to
27:00apply our domestic double listing
27:02regulations to a U.S. IPO. Because
27:05it’s not listing in our market.
27:07Nevertheless, they have determined that
27:09the U.S. listing itself conflicts with
27:11Korea's double listing regulations.
27:13While there is no legal mechanism to
27:15stop this, if Korean financial
27:16authorities apply the brakes, the
27:18likelihood of it not happening
27:19increases. So, isn’t this the kind of
27:22messaging that financial authorities
27:23should be putting out right now? Even
27:26if they can't regulate it directly,
27:28they need to apply some pressure.
27:29Whether it's by swaying public opinion
27:31to say this isn't right, this can be
27:32seen as a very good picture. So, keep
27:35this in mind; among the strong sectors
27:37today, secondary batteries were
27:38powerful, along with bio, aerospace,
27:40the solar power mentioned earlier, and
27:42robotics—though we don't really need
27:44to cover those. Department stores,
27:47however, fell quite significantly. The
27:49biggest negative factor for the
27:51vertical drop in stocks like Hyundai
27:53Department Store and Shinsegae was the
27:55plummeting KRW/USD exchange rate. It
27:57had previously shot past the 1,500 won
27:58level, but it has now come down a lot.
28:00Since it has been falling in a trend,
28:02these are the types of stocks that
28:03suffer when the currency drops. So, as
28:05the won strengthened, they took a big
28:07hit. It rebounded today, but given the
28:09recent drop, please keep that in mind.
28:11Automotive stocks also rose, but as
28:12expected, they’re just doing this. It
28:14wasn't like there was any major good
28:16news for the auto sector. Keep that in
28:19mind, and now we’ll quickly look at
28:20the movement of individual stocks in
28:22our market and wrap things up.
28:24Everything I’ve explained until just
28:26now is the news that came out over the
28:27weekend. There is nothing else. And in
28:30the closing broadcast last Friday, I
28:32made two main points. I said we need to
28:35watch Samsung Biologics and Celltrion.
28:38I mentioned that these would likely be
28:40the benchmarks for this week, and today
28:42Samsung Biologics is up 10-11%; it’s
28:44usually a very heavy stock. If this one
28:46goes up by 10%, that’s a really
28:47significant rise. Celltrion’s gain
28:49wasn't as sharp, but since it surged
28:51last Friday, stocks like these—
28:53especially after the market fell last
28:55Wednesday and Thursday, right here—
28:57because they didn't fall when the
28:58market crashed back then, their pace of
29:00recovery is faster, so rather than
29:02suggesting you buy them, they can serve
29:04as a benchmark. That’s what I was
29:07saying. You need to keep watching them.
29:09Looking at biotechs, most of them have
29:12been pretty gloomy; obviously, whether
29:14it's Molec, D&D Pharmatech, GI
29:16Innovation, Alteogen, LegoChem
29:18Biosciences, ST Pharm, or Boranoy, they
29:21all move in a similar fashion. But once
29:25they gain momentum, they rise at an
29:26insane speed, and since their prices
29:28are so low, you could practically buy
29:30any of them with your eyes closed, so
29:32I’ve been keeping an eye on them.
29:34Also, the stock trying to hit the upper
29:35limit right now due to news that just
29:37came out is G2G Bio. The contract
29:39details aren't fully confirmed, but it
29:40seems like a material evaluation
29:42contract, or rather, a platform
29:43evaluation contract. They have a
29:46platform of their own, and it looks
29:47like they signed a platform contract
29:49with a Chinese company; I need to check
29:51the filing, but I just started the
29:52broadcast because it was time to go on
29:54air while I was reading it. So I’ll
29:57look into the details later, but while
29:59the counterparty is known, it seems the
30:00contract amount and specific details
30:02haven't been filed yet. But since the
30:04news isn't a full-scale contract—if
30:06it were something like a massive
30:08trillion-won deal, it would be
30:09sensational, right? The headline itself
30:11isn't quite that, so it’s not the
30:13kind of sensational news that would
30:14trigger a direct, powerful reaction in
30:16the stock price, but it’s like rain
30:17in a drought, and with the boost from
30:19today being a strong day for bio stocks
30:21—it’s like a market day on the day
30:22you’re already going to the market—
30:24it seems to be moving quite strongly
30:26because of that. As of now, it’s
30:27climbing near the upper limit, and
30:30looking at secondary batteries, now...
30:33LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI,
30:35these two are the benchmarks. On top of
30:37that, there's Daejoo Electronic
30:39Materials or Sam-A Aluminum—we've
30:41talked about Sam-A Aluminum a lot. And
30:43last week, we talked about Sangsin
30:44E-Tech, Shinheung SEC, and those in the
30:46Samsung SDI value chain, the ones
30:48making things like can assemblies. The
30:50ones that make cans and similar parts.
30:52They all took off in the market today.
30:54So you can use these as a baseline, but
30:57this isn't everything. If you add more,
30:59there are waste battery stocks or space
31:01data center stocks; space data centers
31:03also have many involved in this
31:04secondary battery value chain.
31:07Including those makes for too many
31:08stocks and a lot of overlap, and while
31:10it might be hard for you to choose
31:11because there are so many, obviously
31:13you can't buy them all. Since money
31:17isn't infinite, just look at each
31:18sector—for example, space data
31:20centers, waste battery recycling, or
31:22all-solid-state and sodium batteries—
31:25and just buy the market leaders. The
31:28leaders are pretty obvious, there's
31:29only one or two anyway. For each sector
31:30. So I’m currently holding onto all
31:33of those. If you study a bit more, it's
31:36already obvious what the leaders are
31:38just by looking at what I mention. Even
31:40if you look at their movements, they
31:42all end up looking pretty similar.
31:45Based on what we discussed today,
31:47I’ve been saying since last week that
31:50we should increase our weight in
31:52secondary batteries and robotics.
31:55I’ve already increased it, but I feel
31:57like I need to do more. So tomorrow
31:59morning, I’ll sell one or two to buy
32:01more of what I already have; since I'm
32:03already holding the leaders, there's no
32:04need to buy the second-tier stocks. So,
32:07I think I'll just buy more of those.
32:10And looking at solar power, there was
32:12some news earlier. That Chinese solar
32:14power news is the material. The
32:16material. As I explained, China
32:17announced an export ban, but it's
32:19clearly targeting the U.S., and solar
32:20power is the biggest factor here.
32:22Looking at this, there's Hanwha
32:23Solutions and OCI Holdings. And when
32:25solar power rises, the ones that
32:27usually rise with it are wind power
32:28stocks. That would be CS Wind. So these
32:31sectors are bundled together. They look
32:33similar in their movement because
32:35they're broadly grouped under renewable
32:37energy, but I’ve always said that if
32:39I had to choose between solar and wind,
32:41I think solar is much better. I’m
32:43just showing you this today since they
32:45moved together. And among the ones that
32:47moved today, the space and aerospace
32:49theme looked pretty good. If you look
32:51here, you can see all of these are
32:53space and aerospace. Stocks like Almac,
32:55Nara Space, HVM, and Kencoa Aerospace
32:57all saw a strong rise. To be precise,
33:00there isn't any groundbreaking news in
33:03the aerospace sector. But if you really
33:05look for it, there is a catalyst of
33:06sorts. What is it regarding aerospace?
33:09I was reading a report this morning,
33:10and it mentioned something about the
33:11third quarter coming to an end.
33:14Entering the third quarter of this year
33:16, look at global VC money. Since
33:18venture capital money is involved, and
33:19many of these companies need a lot of
33:21cash even if they aren't profitable yet
33:22—well, SpaceX is the only one making
33:24money in aerospace. So, they are
33:27pulling in venture fund money for
33:29financing, and the aerospace VC funding
33:32has reportedly increased fourfold in
33:34just one quarter. The report mentioned
33:37that this is a global trend today. The
33:39idea is that VC money, with its
33:41high-risk profile, is flowing into
33:43aerospace instead of AI data centers,
33:44which seems to have triggered this
33:46movement. Anyway, looking at aerospace,
33:49there’s Almac, Speer, HVM, Kencoa
33:51Aerospace, and the Nara Space I
33:53mentioned earlier. When it comes to
33:55aerospace news, Nara Space is indeed
33:57the most lightweight and volatile one.
33:58It’s the type of stock that hits the
34:00price limit immediately, but the
34:01problem is it also drops the hardest
34:03when bad news breaks. If you look at
34:05the substance, there isn’t much there
34:06, as it’s too heavily driven by the
34:08theme. So, among our listed companies,
34:11the ones that are truly the leaders are
34:13those with clear visibility into their
34:15earnings—either they have a real
34:17business relationship with SpaceX, or
34:19you can estimate their profits based on
34:22every rocket launch by calculating how
34:24much they supply. Those are naturally
34:27the market leaders. Since everything is
34:28mixed up, I’ve found those types of
34:30stocks to be decent. And outside of
34:32those, there are quite a few stocks
34:34that haven't kept up with the market or
34:36haven't moved at all. The only reason
34:38these held up is that they were pushed
34:40up right before the market closed. If
34:42you look here, this area is biotech,
34:44this is secondary batteries, and these
34:46are the representative semiconductor
34:48equipment stocks. Looking at them,
34:49there are still quite a lot of red ink
34:50—I mean, blue—in the charts. And
34:51this is even after they’ve come up.
34:53Earlier, when the other side was
34:55soaring, these large-cap stocks were
34:56down 6%. Now they’ve recovered to
34:59around -3%, -2%, or -5%, hovering in
35:01that range. Even this is only because
35:03they managed a recovery. Until this
35:04morning, they were absolutely crushed.
35:07Even though they pushed it up to the
35:08closing price, it still can't keep up
35:09with the others. So, while it's true
35:12that IT has gained a lot of appeal for
35:13buying due to over-correction, it's
35:15definitely correct to view parts and
35:17equipment makers as better than
35:19semiconductors, and other small to
35:20mid-cap sectors as even better than
35:22them. When I said the valuation of
35:24Samsung/Hynix was too extreme, no
35:25matter how much the P...of course, for
35:27them, people look at PBR more than PER.
35:30Their profit cycle is so volatile that
35:32if you use PER, it suddenly drops at
35:34one point and then skyrockets at
35:35another, making it fluctuate wildly. I
35:38don't really look at it that way, but
35:40because they are earning so much money,
35:41if you look at it based on PER, it's at
35:43three times. I mean, for a company with
35:45a market cap of 1 quadrillion won to
35:46make 300 trillion won in profit a year.
35:49This actually doesn't make sense, but
35:50because they are so cyclical, they
35:51usually don't get a high valuation.
35:54Still, three times is too extreme. So,
35:56if you look at them, it's obviously
35:58something you should buy when
36:00considering them alone, or when you
36:02exclude all other options. But even if
36:05they rise, you shouldn't set your
36:07target price too high. It makes logical
36:09sense for them to rise, but you
36:10shouldn't set your target price at
36:12their previous highs. This is something
36:13I've been saying for a long time. So,
36:15the KOSPI level and the current stock
36:17price levels of these giants are
36:19definitely too cheap, but if others
36:21rise while these are stagnant, strong
36:23alternatives emerge, so people will
36:25move their money there. In the past,
36:28when Samsung/Hynix rose, the reason
36:30others died wasn't because they were
36:31dying when it first started to rise.
36:33But when the tech giants created their
36:34final price rally, everything else was
36:36wiped out. Why? Well, if you just
36:39closed your eyes and bought the tech
36:40giants, you'd make a profit because
36:42they were always going up, while the
36:43others weren't moving anyway. People
36:47sold everything else and jumped in
36:48because of the opportunity cost, and
36:49now the opposite is happening. I think
36:53that's why the buying trend seems to be
36:55heading in that structure. So even if
36:57they rise, take a look at the secondary
37:00battery charts for a moment. Samsung
37:02SDI was strong today, but even if it
37:04rises, it has taken so many hits in the
37:07middle that it's just stuck here, even
37:09though it may look like it's going up a
37:11lot today. And if you look at EcoPro BM
37:15, LNF, or Posco Future M, they were
37:17also strong today, but look here just
37:20like before. Looking at this, it seems
37:22like it rose really strongly, right?
37:24That's right. If you look at just today
37:25. But if you look at their charts, they
37:27are all still right here. Today's
37:29candle, to put it positively, held up
37:31well when the market dropped, which is
37:33why it’s still hanging on here. Once
37:36it starts breaking through this box,
37:38there likely won't be any brakes, so
37:40rather than waiting to confirm the rise
37:43before buying, I believe you should
37:45just stay in a full position from now
37:47on; everything is just too cheap, at
37:49least that’s how I see it. I'm
37:52holding it like that, so to summarize
37:55today's market in one line: what
37:57couldn't rise from yesterday was lifted
37:59by others today, and those with fresh
38:01news reflected it very well. So, we
38:04need to study market news more, and
38:06when things like this come up, we
38:07shouldn't just pass them by but keep a
38:08close watch, for example, things like
38:10this. Like the ban on Chinese exports
38:13or the exclusive reports that Chinese
38:14tech firms are pulling out of the U.S.
38:16—just like I mentioned before the
38:18market even opened this morning, we
38:19really need to study those types of
38:21things. And I will be posting a lot of
38:24that information here. On this website,
38:27there are things I've processed by
38:28running them through AI and refining
38:30the prompts, and even apart from that,
38:32there’s a lot of content I write and
38:33post myself. The important thing is
38:36that you should refer to that. Since I
38:38don't have public broadcasts every day
38:40—only on Mon, Wed, and Fri—please
38:42use those resources on the days when
38:44I'm not on air. You’ve worked hard
38:46today. I will see you the day after
38:47tomorrow. Thank you for your efforts.
38:49Thank you again for today.

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