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ЭТИ компании НЕ подведут в кризис! / Куда инвестировать в 2027? — Transcript

by ИнвестДруг Ольга Сабитова · 4,196 words · 636 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00The Russian market only brings losses;
0:02there’s nothing for you there. On
0:04average, people are down about 20%to 30
0:07%on positions they bought six months
0:10ago. It feels like, to hell with it,
0:13forget this whole damn investing thing.
0:17But in fact, now is the best time to
0:19continue building positions in the
0:20strongest companies that have potential
0:23for the next three years. And even if
0:26the situation worsens, these companies
0:28will remain resilient and stay a
0:30priority. Analysts from completely
0:34different funds and companies estimate
0:36the potential for certain stocks at 50%
0:39to 150%. And this is all linked to a
0:42peace agreement, among other factors.
0:44But what should we actually do right
0:45now? We can’t wait a couple of years
0:47just to realize, "Oops, we made a
0:48mistake," and then adjust our path. We
0:50need to do something with our
0:51portfolios right now. We need to decide
0:54right now which dividend stocks to buy,
0:55which bonds to pick, or maybe forget
0:57the stocks and just put everything into
0:59a savings account. I'm Olga Sabitova,
1:01an expert in capital creation and
1:03passive income. In this video, I will
1:05show you which assets I am buying
1:07myself with a view toward 2027-2028,
1:09and in what proportions. We will look
1:12at my portfolio, and you will be able
1:15to form a pool of ideas to add to your
1:17own, strengthening it and generating
1:19passive income. Starting literally from
1:23the next month of investing. But before
1:25you watch this video, subscribe to the
1:27channel so you don't miss my future
1:28educational videos on how to properly
1:30save and invest in the Russian reality.
1:32This is especially relevant before the
1:34New Year holidays. After all, with the
1:36New Year, we have new forecasts and new
1:38dividend seasons ahead. And it just
1:40goes on in a circle like that. And you
1:41really want to relax during the New
1:43Year break. So, it’s worth sorting
1:44out the investment topic by
1:46mid-December at the latest, which is
1:47exactly what we are going to do today.
1:50Let’s look at the current market
1:51state, which is exhausting for
1:53investors. What is the reason for this
1:55fatigue? What is the reason for this
1:56desire to just quit everything? And at
1:59the same time, why is this the perfect
2:01moment—while no one is watching and
2:03everyone has given up—for our time to
2:05begin? According to Bank of Russia
2:09surveys, the public sees annual
2:11inflation at 15%, but maximum bank
2:13deposit rates don't exceed 13%. What
2:17should you do? Use other instruments
2:19with yields higher than deposit rates.
2:23I use them myself and place a portion
2:24of my funds through Credit Club, an
2:26investment platform with capital
2:27protection tools. And in October, I
2:30once again invested 100,000 rubles into
2:32the Credit Club investment division. I
2:35have been using the platform's products
2:37for over 2 years because it offers
2:39solutions with fixed returns guaranteed
2:42by contract, clear investment mechanics
2:44and transparent terms, capital
2:46protection tools, and options for both
2:48individuals and legal entities to
2:50invest. Credit Club holds all the
2:53necessary Central Bank licenses to
2:55raise funds. Over 5 billion rubles.
2:58have already been invested in Credit
3:00Club, and the platform's products are
3:02available on the largest financial
3:04marketplace, Banki.ru. Use my link in
3:06the description, choose an investment
3:08solution from Credit Club, register
3:10your first contract, and get a bonus of
3:12up to 10,000 rubles. I've left the link
3:14in the description. Let's take a look
3:16at the following. Before you is the
3:18MOEX Total Return Index and the price
3:20index excluding dividends. That is,
3:22simply the MOEX index. It is in green,
3:24while the total return index is in blue
3:26and purple. This data covers
3:28approximately the last 10 years. What
3:30do we get? Dividends are a very
3:32important component of Russian
3:35investing. Earn some money, spend it;
3:37earn some more, sell something, take
3:39the cash, and spend it. That's just a
3:42habit we have in life. We don't build
3:45long-term. I'm referring to the Russian
3:47mentality and, in general, the habit of
3:50doing business in Russia amidst
3:52instability, defaults, and crises; it's
3:54such that you need to spend the money
3:56you've earned right now. Long-term
3:59capital investments for 20 years just
4:01don't suit us. This is also reflected
4:03in the index dynamics. And if we look
4:05only at the price, we see that the MOEX
4:07index is, well, frankly complete
4:09rubbish for investing. But if we look
4:12at it including dividends—and
4:13brokerage apps don't factor dividends
4:15into your portfolio performance—This
4:17drives me crazy, because it demoralizes
4:19investors to account only for the price
4:21, that is, the revaluation of assets in
4:22your portfolio. And where do the
4:25dividends go? They are an important
4:26part of the portfolio. And so, to
4:28always understand where we stand, we
4:30need to look at the MOEX Total Return
4:32Index. And as we can see, we are not in
4:34a downtrend, as the MOEX price index
4:36might suggest, but in a sideways trend.
4:39This means dividends have been saving
4:41the situation all this time. The stocks
4:44themselves, well, they are just staying
4:46in one place. At most, they might
4:48appreciate by the rate of inflation,
4:50but until there is some kind of peace
4:52agreement, we are unlikely to see
4:54explosive growth. But this accumulation
4:57phase, as you can see from 2023, could
4:59last a very long time. We saw such
5:03prolonged accumulation for over 2 years
5:07back in 2011, 2012, and 2013. The
5:11global financial crisis had passed, the
5:13market rose a bit, and then nothing
5:15happened. Then a new impulse was needed
5:18, and then 2014-2015 happened,
5:20sanctions, and all this geopolitical
5:22turmoil. We can now assess the
5:24prospects with you, as to how long this
5:26very sideways trend will continue. But
5:30nobody knows what option we have here,
5:32what the strategy is for the next 3
5:34years: to take assets that pay here and
5:36now, and sprinkle in some "peace coins,
5:38" that is, securities that will perform
5:40best once peace is established. But
5:43when that will happen, nobody knows.
5:45And therefore, purchasing these "peace
5:46coins" should be done more in the
5:48moment, rather than me buying them now,
5:49just in case, for later. So it is
5:52better to observe how events unfold
5:54there, geopolitically speaking. And buy
5:57these "peace coins" closer to the
5:59actual signing of the agreement. You
6:02won't see them in my portfolio today,
6:04because now is definitely not the time,
6:06and it will all continue in 2027. So
6:08I'd rather make a mistake and buy
6:10stocks like Severstal, NLMK, and others
6:12at a higher price later. But I won't
6:15sit around with this money frozen in
6:17these "peace coins." And it might seem,
6:20why take something that might pay you,
6:23or might not pay you. I'm talking about
6:25dividend stocks, they might reduce
6:26dividends. Dividends are not guaranteed
6:28payments, after all. Maybe it would be
6:29better to leave everything in a savings
6:30account. And here is the only factor
6:33that pushes me to stay in securities,
6:35including accumulating and increasing
6:37their volume, even though I sold
6:39everything in the spring to buy an
6:40apartment, and now I'm building it up
6:42again. And even starting from scratch,
6:46I still keep getting into it. And there
6:48is a reason for that. If we remove
6:49geopolitics, this geopolitical layer, a
6:51macroeconomic layer appears.
6:53Macroeconomic cycles speak for
6:54themselves here. We are in a key
6:56rate-cutting cycle regardless. Even if
6:59it's a slow drag, we are still in a
7:01cycle of decline. Deposit rates will
7:04still go down, bonds will still be
7:06revalued, and so will dividend stocks.
7:09Because if earlier we all needed 16%per
7:12annum, because that's what deposits
7:14offered, now we'll generally agree to
7:1613%, because that's what they offer on
7:19deposits. In a year, we'll agree to 10%
7:22. And a year after that, to eight. Why
7:24not lock in these yields now? And let's
7:26take a look together. I'll open the app
7:29on my phone right now. And I use a
7:31portfolio tracking service, so it
7:33necessarily accounts for all my payouts
7:35: dividends, coupons, so that I can
7:38evaluate it sensibly. And what is your
7:40final result from investing in this
7:43asset? Yes, so you don't have to look
7:45at the broker's app, where it tells you
7:47, "Your result is zero," when you need
7:49to account for all income, both passive
7:50and from the purchase itself. So, until
7:53the end of '26. And I think for the
7:55entirety of '27, my portfolio will
7:57certainly have a portion of funds
7:58placed in a money market fund. It's a
8:01kind of piggy bank that earns interest
8:03every day due to the nature of the fund
8:05itself. This is my stash for market
8:08downturns. And right now, the situation
8:11is that the Russian market is not in an
8:13investment stage, but in a speculative
8:15one. Below 2,500 on the MOEX index is
8:18all a speculative market. That is, it
8:21could crash to 2,200, 2,000, or 1,800
8:24on the index, and then grow back up.
8:26And these roller coasters are exactly
8:28what a speculative market is. Therefore
8:30, I want to take advantage of this
8:32opportunity. I don't want to defend
8:34myself against it. I want to use it.
8:36And in order not to miss out, I need to
8:38accumulate money somewhere. If I save
8:41it in a fixed deposit, I might find at
8:43the most critical moment that I cannot
8:45close the deposit without losing all my
8:47interest, unless it's a savings account
8:49. But on a savings account, I only have
8:51an 8%rate. Why would I want that? So I
8:55take it and put it into a money market
8:57fund. The yield there is the
9:00refinancing rate, which is more or less
9:02close to the Central Bank's rate. Well,
9:06maybe minus 0.5 percentage points.
9:07Something like that. If you do this on
9:09an IIS, an individual investment
9:11account, there won't even be any tax.
9:13But even if we account for tax, it
9:14still turns out to be more profitable
9:16for me to save in a money market fund
9:18than in a savings account for the sake
9:20of instant deposits and withdrawals.
9:23Essentially, these 30-35%are the cash
9:25reserves I need to buy dividend
9:28companies during a dip. At the same
9:31time, let's look further. Look, I have
9:33allocated more or less equal shares to
9:35all companies, about 3 to 4 percent
9:37each. And smaller percentages are given
9:39to bonds because I have a lot of them.
9:41Basically, you can see everything on
9:43the screen right now. The percentages
9:44for the OFZ government bonds are small,
9:46they are small everywhere. Why? Because
9:48the time to buy them is still just
9:51about to come. Meaning I will still be
9:53buying them. And I will definitely tell
9:54you about it on my Telegram channel,
9:56Max. And for OFZ bonds, we also look
9:59for great entry points so we don't miss
10:00out and can secure the maximum yield
10:02that government debt has to offer. Now,
10:05as for sectors, let’s look at which
10:07assets I’ve been buying lately, in
10:09recent months, so it’s clear to you
10:11which companies I’m targeting. We
10:14need to divide them by sector, so
10:16let’s start with raw materials
10:17companies. Oil and gas commodity
10:20companies. We’re not really
10:22considering metallurgy because that’s
10:24more of a peace-time story. Therefore,
10:26we can look at Lukoil, Rosneft, and
10:28Novatek. And Gazprom doesn’t really
10:31fit in here, because the only reason
10:34for Gazprom to grow would be if a peace
10:36treaty appeared on the horizon.
10:39That’s it. In all other cases, nobody
10:41really needs this Gazprom. It has
10:42nowhere to earn enough to pay great
10:44dividends. And as you can see, I’ve
10:47been buying Lukoil and Rosneft, and so
10:49on. So, what I'm telling you now isn't
10:51just talk; it’s actually in my
10:52portfolio, please take a look. Next,
10:54yes. What are we expecting from them?
10:56Novatek, Rosneft, and Lukoil all pay
10:59dividends. I might reduce my holdings
11:01later if oil prices start to decline.
11:04And if it turns out that all the peace
11:07rumors are once again dashed by loud
11:09media headlines and so on, we can scale
11:11that back later. But right now, these
11:14positions are pleasing, everything is
11:15going well with them, and you can see
11:17that they are overall in the green for
11:18me. What else is there indirectly
11:21related to oil and gas? The
11:23representative is Transneft. It’s not
11:25quite oil, it’s more logistics, so
11:27it’s not even a currency hedge.
11:29It’s a company that pays dividends,
11:31and all the scary tax stories are
11:32already priced in, simply because their
11:34taxes were raised a couple of years ago
11:36. So, it pays dividends, pays them
11:38regularly, and doesn’t really draw
11:40attention to itself. Very convenient.
11:42The next category of securities is the
11:44banking sector. Sberbank is always the
11:47priority. It is the first stock where
11:49money is being poured. And whenever
11:51there are any growth prerequisites, we
11:53can also include T-Bank here, but
11:55T-Bank has more growth potential than
11:57dividend volume. And I have already
11:59explained to you that betting big on
12:01dividends is a more winning position
12:02right now than waiting for some future
12:04prospects. But I hold both
12:06representatives. The next ones we can
12:08look at are the consumer sector and the
12:10telecommunications sector. You can see
12:13that I have X5 shares in my portfolio.
12:15Despite the fact that the price of
12:16these shares is falling, I did an
12:18analysis of this security. And even
12:20though you write to me in the comments
12:22that you bought it and are at a loss,
12:23and I understand perfectly well, just
12:25look here. X5 brings me 20%. I don’t
12:28know when you bought, at what levels
12:30you bought, but I indicated all the
12:31levels to you. I repeat once again,
12:34before evaluating the result of your
12:36investments, see if there were any
12:37payouts from this company, and add up
12:39the final result. In the same consumer
12:42sector. I also include Ozon, even
12:45though it is semi-consumer, semi-IT,
12:46and semi-financial, since Ozon Bank is
12:48currently very actively driving the
12:50company itself, its revenue growth, and
12:52so on. And look, it’s also up 28%for
12:55me. And if we are talking about
12:58infrastructure risks—that they might
12:59strike the warehouses again or
13:01something—then, in general, this is
13:02already priced in, because this event
13:04has already happened, investors have
13:06already recalculated and revalued
13:07everything, and everyone has agreed
13:09that the current price of Ozon is
13:11adequate, taking into account potential
13:13future destruction. MTS, despite all
13:16the talk that it pays from debt, that
13:18it's a bad company, that they will have
13:20problems with telecommunications
13:22equipment, if you treat the purchase of
13:25this stock as a quasi-bond, right? That
13:28is, it’s a bond that has more price
13:30potential than if you bought MTS bonds.
13:32And if you don’t expect any
13:34super-growth from it, or work with
13:36artificial intelligence, or like any US
13:38tech stock, then there you go, it pays
13:40dividends and you just buy more on the
13:42dips, locking in the dividend yield.
13:45Yes, it has lowered its dividend yield
13:47now, but it will, accordingly, direct
13:49the money that won't go to dividends
13:51toward improving its financial position
13:53. And that is a plus for the long term.
13:55So here we are also sitting on two
13:57chairs. We also include Mother and
13:58Child in the consumer sector here.
14:01Medicine and the service sector are
14:03growing because inflation is growing,
14:05plus this company also pays dividends,
14:07so I added it as well. And, as you can
14:10see, far from all the companies I
14:11bought and all these decisions are
14:13giving me a profit right now, because
14:15there are no profitable positions
14:16without losing ones nearby. What else
14:19haven't I mentioned? Ah, the technology
14:21sector. It's a very big question, yes,
14:23will it make sense to keep Yandex for
14:262027? It will make sense. The company
14:28is making money; yes, there will be
14:30problems with recovery, but it’s not
14:32a completely burnt-down Wildberries
14:33warehouse. Some people greatly
14:36exaggerate the scale of Yandex's losses
14:39. And that is why Yandex's growth rates
14:43provide it with a safety zone, so even
14:45if its profit growth slows down because
14:48they had to patch things up or replace
14:51lost capacity, its growth rates remain
14:54high. And even if it doesn't grow at
14:56all, well, the company won't die or go
14:58bankrupt because of that. It’s not
15:00like Samolet or Pik, which has left the
15:02stock exchange. Two more companies that
15:04look good and are also dividend-paying.
15:06It will be quite unusual for you. It is
15:08HeadHunter. HeadHunter, that rascal,
15:10raised the price of its job posting
15:12rates by nearly two times, if not more.
15:15I’m telling you this as a sole
15:16proprietor. But at the same time, I
15:18perfectly understand where they get the
15:20money for such dividends. That is why
15:22HeadHunter pays large dividends,
15:24double-digit percentages. And there is
15:27still growth potential, because even if
15:30things get really bad and people lose
15:32their jobs and unemployment rises, they
15:34will still use HeadHunter to find work.
15:37And employers will snap up valuable
15:40personnel, paying money to access the
15:42database of people and paying for job
15:45postings. So here, it works both ways,
15:48both during an economic cooling and an
15:50economic overheating. And the last
15:53representative is DOM.RF. It’s sort
15:56of a bank that issues mortgages, but
15:58its growth potential is conservative,
16:00unlike Sberbank or T-Bank, because
16:02it’s tied to mortgage lending, which
16:05is collateralized. And since the growth
16:09rate of mortgage applications is
16:10slowing down now, well, in short, there
16:12is only one lever here, playing with
16:14interest rates, and the bank earns
16:16money on this very reliably because
16:18everything is backed by collateral. I
16:20have a small stake in it, but I would
16:22still bet more on Sberbank. The yields
16:25there are higher, even in terms of
16:26dividends, at least for me, based on
16:28the price at which I bought it. So,
16:29regarding stocks, this is the main pool
16:31of shares that you can continue to hold
16:34in 2027, which don't depend on whether
16:36there will be peace or not. Well,
16:38perhaps it might make sense to sell
16:40Rosneft partially if a peace deal isn't
16:42reached with Lukoil. Trim a third, take
16:44the profit so you don't sit through
16:46this correction and watch, thinking, "
16:47Damn, I didn't sell at 6,000, how
16:49annoying." And, and what about
16:50dividends? Well, I don't even need the
16:52dividends anymore; I'm already feeling
16:53sad. I didn't cash in my profit on
16:55Lukoil at 6,000. Bonds remain an
16:57equally important part of the portfolio
16:59for 2027. Therefore, even if you decide
17:02to go 100%into bonds, 0%judgment, 100%
17:05understanding. Why? It's a very
17:09straightforward story. Look, I'm
17:10opening the tab with the bonds that I
17:12have specifically in my portfolio. 60%
17:14corporate, 40%government, effective
17:16yield to maturity—17.3%. And this
17:20yield is predictable. There are
17:22securities with maturity dates up to
17:242040. Yes, there's no amortization or
17:26anything like that here. Just sit back,
17:28watch, collect your money; what more do
17:30you need? And if it's in an IIS, then
17:33there are no taxes at all. Even with
17:34taxes, it still turns out to be more
17:36profitable than a bank deposit. So, if
17:38you allocate half of your money to
17:40bonds, that will also be a good
17:42decision. Especially since the key rate
17:45will be falling in 2027, deposit rates
17:47will go down, and bond prices will rise
17:49because of that. Having a ready-made
17:52list of securities already bought is,
17:53of course, wonderful. It is literally a
17:56snapshot of the moment, a photograph of
17:57what you can buy right now. But, as
18:00discussed in other videos, forecasts
18:01are constantly changing, figures are
18:03changing, and plans are changing. And
18:05in connection with this, it may turn
18:07out that you'll need to trim some
18:08stocks, take your profit, and wait for
18:10a correction. Or perhaps it makes sense
18:13to go 100%into bonds altogether? Is it
18:15worth buying corporate bonds now, or is
18:17it better to take federal loan bonds?
18:19Should I sell Yandex or not right now?
18:21Yes, I'll buy it back later, but what
18:23about right now? A bunch of these
18:25questions arise in the minds of
18:27completely different viewers of mine,
18:28of completely different investors. And
18:31that's normal, because money moves,
18:32events change, and you have to do
18:34something about it. It's all hard and
18:36complicated, especially when you
18:37actually have a job and a personal life
18:39. That's why every week in my Telegram
18:41channel and Max, I talk about what I'm
18:43buying myself, which specific bonds,
18:45and send you screenshots with the
18:46reasoning why this paper and not that
18:48one. And if I buy a money market fund,
18:51I also talk about it, saying that right
18:52now it's not fun at all, I'll buy a
18:54money market fund. And you can also
18:56repeat these, because these trades are
18:57suitable for beginners too. If you need
18:59such a hint, this constant guide on
19:02what to buy right now, subscribe to my
19:04Telegram channel or Max and follow the
19:07updates. That's it, nothing is required
19:09of you, just a subscription. What bonds
19:11should you pick? It's simple here,
19:14because OFZs are straightforward. There
19:17they are. A default is a long way off
19:19for us. You just need to choose OFZs
19:22that pay out in the months you need.
19:24And you can choose the duration; if you
19:26want to lock in your income for 5 years
19:28, get five-year bonds. If you want 10
19:29years, get ten-year bonds. You can
19:31always sell them later. Honestly, just
19:33pick what you want right now. Choosing
19:35bonds is much easier. If, for example,
19:37we talk about OFZs, I chose the 26240
19:39issue, which matures in 2036, a
19:41medium-term, yes, a ten-year one. Well,
19:43maybe medium-term, it's on the border
19:45between medium and long-term. And the
19:4726230 issue, maturing in 2039. These
19:50are long-term bonds. That is, this is a
19:52riskier type of bond because their
19:55price is more sensitive to changes, to
19:57every word from Nabiullina, than bonds
20:00maturing in 2029 or 2030. At the same
20:03time, in parallel for that same year
20:052027, yes, I am buying corporate bonds.
20:08And if we look at an example from
20:09October, I bought the GTLK leasing
20:11company. We have buses driving around
20:13Perm with "GTLK" written on them.
20:14Atomenergoprom. We want to invest in
20:17the nuclear industry, but we can't
20:18because it's all state-owned. So here
20:20you go, you can only buy their bonds.
20:22By the way, they are good bonds. They
20:23have maturities of three or five years,
20:26and the yield is decent. And that's how
20:29you build a portfolio from individual
20:31corporate bonds. The main thing is that
20:33the companies must be truly stable. And
20:36since in the last couple of years we
20:37have seen a large number of defaults on
20:39specific bonds: Baltic Leasing,
20:41Monopolia, and others. Therefore, you
20:44shouldn't just go for high yields; you
20:46really need to look at the company
20:48itself. And this requires a higher
20:51level of understanding of corporate
20:53reporting, debt load, and risks, like
20:55if some founder gets arrested or
20:57accused of something. So, if you are
21:00grimacing at everything I'm saying
21:02right now, just stick to federal loan
21:04bonds (OFZs). Alfa-Fabrika is also
21:07interesting; you can also consider
21:10their financial instruments. At least
21:12they are interesting right now. I don't
21:14know when you will be watching this
21:15video. You should check, verify if
21:17Alfa-Fabrika is still interesting or
21:20not. It has been six months since my
21:22account was reset. And all these six
21:24months I have continued to build
21:25securities portfolios and showed you
21:27which papers I bought in the last
21:28couple of months. As of now, this is
21:31how it’s turning out. Well, due to
21:33the total capital volume. Russian
21:35securities make up only 4%of my
21:37portfolio. So I still have a lot of
21:39room to grow, and I will definitely
21:41continue accumulating securities
21:43regardless. Because right now, when
21:44everyone is upset, sad, and has long
21:46since given up, saying, "Oh, that's it,
21:49" is actually the best time to buy them
21:51. And this "right now" could last for
21:52quite a while longer. Nobody knows when
21:54we will finally return to growth. But
21:57the fact that you will be receiving
21:59dividends and coupons along the way,
22:01and if you also use tax optimization
22:03with an IIS, it will allow you to keep
22:05getting high returns, like those you've
22:07seen on savings accounts. You will be
22:10able to save up for an apartment and
22:12for whatever goals you want: long-term
22:13or medium-term. That is why I am for
22:16investing. Investing has only helped me
22:17throughout my entire life's journey.
22:19And I hope that this video also helped
22:21you get your bearings on, geez, what to
22:23buy and where to start? And you will be
22:25able to somehow build your portfolio at
22:26least a little bit. But don't forget
22:28that your investment journey doesn't
22:31end here; it's all just beginning. And
22:33with you was Olga Sabitova, an expert
22:34in creating capital and passive income.
22:36I wish you profitable investments and a
22:38speedy achievement of financial freedom
22:40. Bye everyone.

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This page contains the full transcript of ЭТИ компании НЕ подведут в кризис! / Куда инвестировать в 2027? by ИнвестДруг Ольга Сабитова, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 4,196 words across 636 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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