全球資本大賣美國！美元.美債崩潰！歐洲準備最後一擊！蔡正元揭秘中國如何成為金融強國！【#環球大戰線】20260129-P3 葉思敏 蔡正元 賴岳謙 栗正傑 — Transcript

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1. 0:00Okay, next we'll be concerned with...
2. 0:01The US dollar and US Treasury bonds are both suffering losses at this time.
3. 0:03Has a global sell-off of US dollars already occurred?
4. 0:05This trend of capital flight
5. 0:08Today we will work together to show our care.
6. 0:10Because we can actually observe
7. 0:12It's only been less than a month since the beginning of 2026.
8. 0:15Some financial markets have already begun to show signs of this.
9. 0:17Prelude to the Storm
10. 0:19We will now look at several indices.
11. 0:21The US dollar index continued its sharp decline over the past week .
12. 0:24This marks the first time since April of last year.
13. 0:26This is already the worst performance.
14. 0:28Including what can be seen
15. 0:29US Treasury bonds and the US dollar are both weakening in tandem.
16. 0:31Funds are now gradually...
17. 0:33evacuation from the United States
18. 0:34Let's see that includes
19. 0:36This is from Barron's Weekly.
20. 0:38It was also specifically mentioned
21. 0:40The world has now entered a new era.
22. 0:41A brand new phase
23. 0:42This stage
24. 0:43It believes this is the era of a weak dollar.
25. 0:45It has officially arrived.
26. 0:46And the trigger, in his opinion, was Trump himself.
27. 0:50Because we can see
28. 0:51Especially recently
29. 0:52Besides the turbulent geopolitics
30. 0:55Including Trump's handling of the Greenland issue
31. 0:57He constantly used tariffs
32. 0:58to coerce these European countries
33. 1:01These European countries also believe that
34. 1:03America's influence is declining.
35. 1:05They are also selling dollars.
36. 1:07There is such an action
37. 1:08As a result, we can see...
38. 1:10Regardless of whether the stock market is falling
39. 1:11Or perhaps the bond market is falling.
40. 1:14Or the currency market is falling.
41. 1:15And safe-haven funds
42. 1:16Now gradually
43. 1:17It flowed to other places.
44. 1:20What are countries buying now?
45. 1:21What I'm buying is gold.
46. 1:23Poland can see the central bank's...
47. 1:25Increased gold holdings by 150 tons.
48. 1:27European India and Asia Institute
49. 1:29All systematically
50. 1:30The goal is to reduce holdings of US Treasury bonds .
51. 1:32And safe-haven assets are now also experiencing a surge.
52. 1:35Global funds
53. 1:36Start walking towards this place
54. 1:39Economists say that once it gets out of control
55. 1:41If the US dollar continues to...
56. 1:43If this is the result
57. 1:44The consequences would be unimaginable.
58. 1:46However, we see at this time
59. 1:47Trump doesn't seem afraid.
60. 1:49He believes that
61. 1:49Even if the US dollar fluctuates...
62. 1:51This is all normal.
63. 1:52On the contrary, could it benefit the United States?
64. 1:54Our export competitiveness here
65. 1:56It's actually better
66. 1:59He also mentioned well-known investors.
67. 2:01He observed global funds
68. 2:02Currently evacuating from the United States
69. 2:05We can see
70. 2:06The world is currently recovering from trade wars
71. 2:08It has led to a capital war
72. 2:10This comes from the founder of Bridgewater Associates.
73. 2:12Dalio's remarks
74. 2:14What does Teacher Lai think?
75. 2:15Have you noticed this trend of selling to the US?
76. 2:17Rising globally
77. 2:19I think it's a trend that's moving.
78. 2:21But it doesn't mean that Trump's year-long...
79. 2:24This has led to such a trend movement.
80. 2:26In fact, it's the Biden era.
81. 2:29It's Biden's four years versus Trump's
82. 2:33Accumulated
83. 2:34Such a structural change
84. 2:36Why
85. 2:36Because I think the earliest trigger
86. 2:38It originated from the Russo-Ukrainian War.
87. 2:43United States and Europe
88. 2:44Regarding Russia's overseas assets
89. 2:47Illegal freezing and confiscation
90. 2:50I think this has caused a stir in many countries.
91. 2:52In its heart
92. 2:53Distrust and unease towards Western countries
93. 2:56First, they drove Russia out of SWIFT.
94. 2:59So you see many countries
95. 3:02They started to establish another safe haven system.
96. 3:07In other words, the issue of local transactions.
97. 3:09There's also the issue of digital currency transactions.
98. 3:12There's also the issue of blockchain.
99. 3:14To avoid the influence of SWIFT
100. 3:18So it's like after so many years...
101. 3:20We are seeing SWIFT's influence decline.
102. 3:23Its share is decreasing
103. 3:24So, this kind of local currency trading
104. 3:26A clearing bank mechanism is being established.
105. 3:29of blockchain is being established.
106. 3:31So in fact, it is the United States
107. 3:34They went to get this SWIFT
108. 3:37This was originally an economic tool
109. 3:39After politicizing and securitizing it
110. 3:41The sequelae
111. 3:42This is the first part.
112. 3:43Part Two
113. 3:44It was this that froze Russia's overseas assets.
114. 3:46This led to the formation of many countries.
115. 3:49Distrust of Western countries
116. 3:50Especially for the United States
117. 3:51So you see that from that time onwards...
118. 3:54Starting from the freeze in the Russia-Ukraine war
119. 3:55Mainland China has been rhythmically and systematically
120. 3:58Start selling US government bonds
121. 4:00It just keeps throwing
122. 4:02Throwing it out piece by piece
123. 4:04Many countries in the Middle East
124. 4:06Many wealthy people
125. 4:07Many of them also do the same thing.
126. 4:09Everyone is dumping US government bonds
127. 4:10In other words, buy some
128. 4:13Assets of US private companies
129. 4:15However, in the case of selling off US government bonds
130. 4:18They are making a transfer
131. 4:19Their third action
132. 4:20This is Committee Member Cai.
133. 4:21One thing that has been emphasized all along
134. 4:23They are the ones increasing their gold holdings.
135. 4:26In other words, many countries began to discover
136. 4:29If an era of economic turmoil arrives
137. 4:31The gold standard
138. 4:33It was also Russia's gold standard at the time.
139. 4:35Helped Russia through that difficult time
140. 4:37Then everyone will calculate.
141. 4:39Do I have enough gold reserves?
142. 4:42If you are not a major gold-producing country
143. 4:45That would increase your risk.
144. 4:47Therefore, many countries have begun to systematically...
145. 4:49Planned increase in gold holdings
146. 4:51But because the US confiscated it...
147. 4:53Freezing someone else's assets
148. 4:54They are concerned about the US keeping its gold reserves in the US.
149. 4:58They don't trust it if they put it in Europe.
150. 4:59They want to move it.
151. 5:01That's like mainland China
152. 5:02A gold market was established in Shanghai.
153. 5:04I won't keep the gold with you.
154. 5:06I want to move back
155. 5:07Move it back and transport it away
156. 5:08This will be beneficial to European and American countries.
157. 5:10This certainly has an impact on leaving the United States.
158. 5:13So what you mentioned
159. 5:14When everyone was leaving
160. 5:16In addition, after Trump took office
161. 5:19Trump became the one who tore down this wall.
162. 5:23The main driving force
163. 5:24Because of his first tariff
164. 5:26Secondly , his misconduct
165. 5:28Enabling more and more people
166. 5:29Growing distrust of the United States
167. 5:31People's views on the US economy and the future of the United States
168. 5:34When the outlook is not optimistic
169. 5:36Look at the US government bonds
170. 5:38Continuous selling
171. 5:39Originally from mainland China
172. 5:41However, more and more countries
173. 5:42Now we're looking at Japan.
174. 5:43If Japan can't hold out either
175. 5:45That would probably mean the end for America.
176. 5:46Because Japan is the most obedient to the United States
177. 5:48They are also most afraid of the United States.
178. 5:50If one day you see Japan
179. 5:52In order to save his yen
180. 5:53Begin selling off US government bonds
181. 5:55Then we need to get that money back.
182. 5:57When saving the yen
183. 5:59I think this is probably it.
184. 6:00End of America
185. 6:03That's how it should be said.
186. 6:03Even when Japan left
187. 6:05You should look at the European countries.
188. 6:06How much have other European countries progressed?
189. 6:09Now Denmark is taking the first step.
190. 6:11But the problem is...
191. 6:12It will only be effective if major powers step forward.
192. 6:14right
193. 6:15If the major European powers were to leave...
194. 6:18This is the real US government.
195. 6:20A very serious signal about US debt
196. 6:23So I personally think
197. 6:24Currently, this trend is...
198. 6:26But you said you wanted to overthrow America.
199. 6:28It seems that it is not yet enough.
200. 6:30However, this will only be effective if all these major powers step forward.
201. 6:33It's the same problem.
202. 6:34What do the committee members think?
203. 6:36There is also a saying that...
204. 6:37If a weak dollar continues to emerge...
205. 6:39Sell US Treasury bonds and US dollars
206. 6:40The consequences would be unimaginable.
207. 6:41What do the committee members think?
208. 6:42None
209. 6:44I have repeatedly encouraged and appealed to mainland China
210. 6:46We must build ourselves into a financial powerhouse.
211. 6:49Don't just be a manufacturing powerhouse
212. 6:51What world market technology powerhouse
213. 6:54You are not a strong country without a strong financial sector.
214. 6:58The United States is strongest in its financial sector.
215. 7:02Unrivaled throughout the world
216. 7:05Why did I give an example?
217. 7:07China was very happy last year.
218. 7:10I am also very happy
219. 7:12It is its trade surplus
220. 7:151.2 trillion
221. 7:16Trade with the United States has fallen below 15%.
222. 7:20Its global trade surplus
223. 7:221.2 trillion
224. 7:24But let's not forget this 1.2 trillion
225. 7:26One trillion of that was earned in US dollars.
226. 7:29It does not use other currencies for income.
227. 7:31Not in RMB or Japanese Yen
228. 7:32All income is in US dollars
229. 7:33Then the People's Bank of China
230. 7:37This one trillion dollar income
231. 7:39Only a portion was kept in the pocket
232. 7:41Other scattered among banks and individuals
233. 7:42Scattered in diplomatic enterprises
234. 7:45Then why don't you buy something else?
235. 7:47Why don't you mention gold?
236. 7:49It is because
237. 7:49The United States has the world's largest
238. 7:52Capital Markets
239. 7:53Its banking system plus securities market
240. 7:56Added together
241. 7:56The construction of a financial power
242. 8:00Currently irreplaceable
243. 8:02So you're saying China has exported...
244. 8:04You said I exported to India
245. 8:05I took Indian currency.
246. 8:06Do you dare?
247. 8:07I export to Europe
248. 8:09you dare to accept Euros ?
249. 8:10You export to Japan
250. 8:12Japan takes some
251. 8:12It's best to use US dollars, right?
252. 8:15Buying things from Taiwan
253. 8:15Taiwan will definitely ask you for US dollars, right?
254. 8:17So that's the problem.
255. 8:19So why mainland China
256. 8:20Becoming a financial power
257. 8:22It is one of my expectations for them.
258. 8:24However, the United States, as a financial superpower
259. 8:26No one can replace it in the short term.
260. 8:28So you said the US dollar will fluctuate?
261. 8:30Many of its dollars only experienced a single- week plunge.
262. 8:32How much will it drop by 5%?
263. 8:33A single week of sharp decline
264. 8:36Our New Taiwan Dollar
265. 8:37Bang! It's more than 5% in a day!
266. 8:38I even gave him a good scolding, didn't I?
267. 8:41Let's do it again.
268. 8:43US Treasury bonds are not related to the US dollar.
269. 8:45The US dollar remains the world's largest currency.
270. 8:47Largest trade currency
271. 8:49The main protagonist
272. 8:50Therefore, people are selling dollars and buying gold.
273. 8:52The quantity is still very small.
274. 8:53If all the money from selling [the item] is used to buy gold
275. 8:55Now, gold is unknown.
276. 8:56It should cost at least $100,000 per ounce.
277. 8:58Congratulations
278. 8:59But it hasn't reached that point yet.
279. 9:01Not that many
280. 9:02It's just the beginning of other people's preparations.
281. 9:04That 's because the US wants to print money.
282. 9:09The deficit is so big
283. 9:09Trump wants to spend so much money on defense.
284. 9:12That would require printing money.
285. 9:14To sell government bonds and print money
286. 9:16Of course, the interest on government bonds must be paid.
287. 9:18He wants to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman
288. 9:19We need to lower this interest rate.
289. 9:21They're going to print money.
290. 9:23Then printing money will cause the dollar to fall even further.
291. 9:25So, in that loop...
292. 9:27Will it collapse?
293. 9:29As Professor Lai just mentioned...
294. 9:30It just won't fall over.
295. 9:32So you're saying capital is leaving the US?
296. 9:34Where to evacuate from the United States
297. 9:35China receives so many US dollars every day
298. 9:38Currently the world's largest recipient of US dollars
299. 9:40Regarding mainland China
300. 9:41What if it bought it in US dollars?
301. 9:42It's about doing asset management.
302. 9:45Then I'll be blunt...
303. 9:46China's current financial management capabilities
304. 9:49There is still a long way to go to reach the United States.
305. 9:51That technology has gradually caught up.
306. 9:53It's in the area of financial management.
307. 9:55Who delayed things?
308. 9:56To be honest, the previous central bank governor
309. 9:59Central Bank Governor
310. 10:00That Governor of the People's Bank of China
311. 10:02This includes the entire financial system of mainland China.
312. 10:04The upgrade was delayed.
313. 10:07Of course, it may be related to their entire country.
314. 10:10Leaders do not understand the financial system
315. 10:12I always thought manufacturing was the most important thing.
316. 10:14It seems like working in the financial industry is...
317. 10:17Make a lot of money without having to work hard.
318. 10:20These are two different things.
319. 10:22you think you'll get slapped in the face if you're in the financial world?
320. 10:25So I think that, from the current perspective...
321. 10:28Funds will not leave the United States
322. 10:30As long as mainland China continues to receive US dollars
323. 10:32Why would they withdraw?
324. 10:33No one will retreat
325. 10:35So you're talking about a weak dollar?
326. 10:37The dollar is weak while the dollar is strong.
327. 10:38There is a certain range
328. 10:42It says the world is moving from trade wars to capital wars.
329. 10:45This is nonsense.
330. 10:46Trade war and tariffs
331. 10:48What is a capital war ?
332. 10:51You want to buy goods from me
333. 10:52If I don't accept US dollars, what am I supposed to accept?
334. 10:54Is it right or wrong?
335. 10:55This is a very real problem.
336. 10:56So you said I'd take US dollars?
337. 10:58I just don't buy US Treasury bonds
338. 11:00But what do I need to buy?
339. 11:01The money is still in a US bank account.
340. 11:04Or keep it in a US bank to earn interest.
341. 11:06Or buy corporate bonds or wealth management products
342. 11:08Buy ETFs
343. 11:09Just don't buy US government bonds
344. 11:11So you're telling me a joke, right?
345. 11:13Therefore I think
346. 11:14These are all alarmist claims.
347. 11:17And that economist
348. 11:18I've never heard of Win Thin.
349. 11:19He is a Nosocom banker
350. 11:20An economist at a small bank
351. 11:22The consequences would be unimaginable if the situation got out of control.
352. 11:25The situation is already out of control.
353. 11:26The consequences weren't good.
354. 11:27US stocks still rose.
355. 11:29Okay, so I'd like to ask General Li about the same question.
356. 11:31Even so, the US stock market still rose.
357. 11:34However, the domestic real economy does not feel it.
358. 11:36Such a question
359. 11:37General Li
360. 11:38Gold prices have surged recently.
361. 11:41It increased by 64% last year.
362. 11:43It's only January, and it's not even over yet.
363. 11:45It has already risen by almost 28
364. 11:47This is a saying we often use
365. 11:49Something unusual must be going on.
366. 11:51This strange wind is quite strong.
367. 11:53Who is this demon?
368. 11:54I think it's Trump.
369. 11:55That's exactly what you, Trump, said.
370. 11:57Since you took office as President of the United States
371. 11:59This series of operations
372. 12:01Then let the entire dollar depreciate.
373. 12:04That would naturally push gold prices upward.
374. 12:07I think
375. 12:08This will cause this round of price increases in gold.
376. 12:10Of course, the first one is with the United States.
377. 12:12You and these allied countries
378. 12:13Including your attack on and occupation of Greenland
379. 12:17And your tariff policy
380. 12:18Offended all allied countries
381. 12:20Although in the short term
382. 12:22These countries are to you
383. 12:23Economically possible
384. 12:25It won't hurt your vitals.
385. 12:27But when everyone
386. 12:28When everyone shares this idea
387. 12:30There is a saying that goes...
388. 12:32When the wall falls, everyone pushes it down.
389. 12:33We now see Denmark
390. 12:35Although it was said to be selling off US Treasury bonds
391. 12:37Only $100 million was sold.
392. 12:38Although the amount is not large
393. 12:39But will someone take the lead?
394. 12:41The role of wind direction
395. 12:43The second US stock market is currently rising .
396. 12:44I think the gains were mainly driven by tech stocks.
397. 12:47Recently
398. 12:48Including Nvidia
399. 12:49Or some tech stocks
400. 12:51Mainly because they are rising sharply.
401. 12:52From the perspective of people's livelihood
402. 12:53It won't actually be of much help.
403. 12:55The second point is that the rise in US stocks represents...
404. 12:57I think it's a money game on Wall Street.
405. 13:00Who buys stocks?
406. 13:01Of course, only wealthy people buy stocks.
407. 13:04I remember during the SARS period
408. 13:05The US is spending lavishly.
409. 13:08After the money was used to subsidize those people
410. 13:09There are two types of people
411. 13:09One is
412. 13:10I am just a renter
413. 13:12After I received the money
414. 13:13I immediately paid my rent back.
415. 13:15The landlord
416. 13:16Besides receiving the first payment
417. 13:17In addition to the money given by the United States
418. 13:18He accepted the money from the tenants again.
419. 13:21In this situation
420. 13:22Where does he keep his extra money?
421. 13:23Go buy stocks
422. 13:24I think the rise in the US stock market is related to this.
423. 13:26It's related to its massive money printing.
424. 13:29It's also related to the surge in tech stocks .
425. 13:30Because that's all the money we have.
426. 13:32So why do they all go to the United States?
427. 13:34They all rushed to the stock market
428. 13:36However, we must pay attention to
429. 13:37How do ordinary people in the United States live their lives?
430. 13:39I think it's very obvious in the United States.
431. 13:41It has approximately 90% of its wealth.
432. 13:44Concentrated at the top 10% of the pyramid
433. 13:48These people are speculating on stocks
434. 13:50In fact, the latter 90%
435. 13:52We see the people at the grassroots level in the United States
436. 13:55Many lives are below the death line.
437. 13:57right
438. 13:58In case he faces difficulties in life
439. 14:01For example, he needs to spend money to see a doctor.
440. 14:03Their killing sword refers to $400.
441. 14:06It will cost more than $400.
442. 14:08He might not be able to pay his mortgage.
443. 14:10Possible life
444. 14:11Immediately from a normal life
445. 14:13Falling to the point of becoming a vagrant
446. 14:15Therefore
447. 14:16We shouldn't look
448. 14:17US stocks is a superficial phenomenon.
449. 14:19You need to look at the majority of the American people
450. 14:21They still live on the edge of death.
451. 14:26Making a living over there
452. 14:27good
453. 14:28Thank you, General Li.
454. 14:28Let's take a break.
455. 14:29be right back