2026 YIS Global Stock Pitch Competition-2nd Place — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Good afternoon, judges. Right now, every
2. 0:03government in the world is racing to
3. 0:04solve the same problem. How do you power
4. 0:06a modern economy that runs on
5. 0:07electricity, but cleanly, reliably, and
6. 0:09at scale? The answer they keep arriving
7. 0:11at is nuclear energy. Now, with AI
8. 0:14exponentially growing electricity
9. 0:15demands, that answer is arriving faster
10. 0:17than anyone expected. The company at the
11. 0:20very center of it all, controlling fuel
12. 0:21supply, controlling processing, and
13. 0:23reactor technology is one many people
14. 0:25have never heard about.
15. 0:27My name is Shreyan Bose from the
16. 0:28International School of Kuala Lumpur,
17. 0:29Malaysia, and today I'm pitching Cameco,
18. 0:31the quiet backbone of the global nuclear
19. 0:33renaissance.
20. 0:36Let's start with some fundamentals. They
21. 0:38currently trade at $108.35, up 73% over
22. 0:42the past year. But I'm not here to pitch
23. 0:43what's already happened. The stock has
24. 0:45actually pulled back 20% from its high
25. 0:47of $135 in January, but my thesis hasn't
26. 0:50changed, just the price, and it's even
27. 0:51more attractive today.
28. 0:53I'm pitching a strong buy with a
29. 0:54one-year target of $155, a 43% upside,
30. 0:58but a five-year target of $300,
31. 1:00representing a 178% return. At a 97
32. 1:03times forward PE, Cameco may appear
33. 1:05expensive. By the end of this pitch,
34. 1:07you'll see why it's still at a discount.
35. 1:10So, let's start with what they actually
36. 1:11do. Cameco is the world's largest
37. 1:13publicly traded uranium producer,
38. 1:14controlling a 17% of global production.
39. 1:17What sets it apart isn't the scale. It's
40. 1:19actually vertical integration. See, they
41. 1:21control three segments across the
42. 1:23nuclear life cycle, each being a
43. 1:25critical bottleneck. First of all,
44. 1:26mining. They control the Cigar Lake and
45. 1:28McArthur River mines, two of the world's
46. 1:30highest grade and largest mines, plus a
47. 1:3244% stake in Kazakhstan's Inkai
48. 1:34reserves.
49. 1:35Second, we have fuel services. They have
50. 1:37the world's largest commercial refinery
51. 1:39at Blind River, and one of only four
52. 1:41conversion facilities in the Western
53. 1:42world at Port Hope. Even rivals depend
54. 1:44on this infrastructure.
55. 1:46Lastly, we have reactor technology at
56. 1:47Westinghouse. They have a 49% stake in
57. 1:50the largest reactor services company in
58. 1:51the world. They service and build
59. 1:53reactors for over one in two of every
60. 1:56power plants in the world. The analogy
61. 1:57in petroleum, they drill crude oil, they
62. 1:59refine it into petrol, and they build
63. 2:01the combustion engines. No other public
64. 2:03company has that full chain in nuclear.
65. 2:05So, why does that matter now?
66. 2:08Here are some fundamentals about the
67. 2:09industry. The uranium industry operates
68. 2:11nothing like a typical commodities
69. 2:12market, and that's central to my thesis.
70. 2:14They sign 3 to 15-year contracts with
71. 2:16price floors built in. Revenues are
72. 2:18sticky, predictable, and constantly
73. 2:19pricing upwards. Next, plants prioritize
74. 2:21reliability over cost. Uranium only
75. 2:23represents 5 to 10% of all operating
76. 2:26expenditures. So, they pay a premium for
77. 2:27a trusted and stable supplier, and that
78. 2:29supplier is Cameco. Now, if the
79. 2:31company's so strong, what's created this
80. 2:33advantage?
81. 2:35That brings me to my investment thesis
82. 2:36with four key pillars. The first one, as
83. 2:39I mentioned, they're an industry leader
84. 2:40with scale, assets, and integration.
85. 2:42But, here's the second one, and this is
86. 2:43huge. There's a structural demand surge
87. 2:45happening right now from AI and
88. 2:47decarbonization mandates. See, nuclear
89. 2:49capacity is projected to grow 125% by
90. 2:512040. AI data center demand is doubling
91. 2:54in the next 4 years. Nuclear is the only
92. 2:57dispatchable zero-carbon baseload energy
93. 2:59source that can power a data center
94. 3:00around the clock. Simply put, AI, no,
95. 3:03the world needs energy. Soon, that's
96. 3:05going to be nuclear, and soon, that's
97. 3:06going to be Cameco.
98. 3:08Third, we have uranium repricing. See,
99. 3:10after the disaster of Fukushima in 2011,
100. 3:13prices dropped from $70 a pound to below
101. 3:1620. Mines closed, and investment dried
102. 3:18up. This decade that we've seen of
103. 3:20underinvestment and underdevelopment has
104. 3:22led to a 60 million pound annual supply
105. 3:24deficit arriving today, just as AI, and
106. 3:26just as the world needs it the most.
107. 3:28Cameco was disciplined through this
108. 3:29downturn, and now they're ready to
109. 3:31capture that return.
110. 3:32Lastly, we have the Middle East
111. 3:33conflict. The Iran conflict has made
112. 3:35fossil fuel dependency a national
113. 3:37security issue. The last major conflict
114. 3:39in the Middle East built 40% of today's
115. 3:41reactor fleet. History rhymes itself,
116. 3:43and Cameco is at the center of it.
117. 3:46Let's see where this brings us
118. 3:47competitively.
119. 3:48Oh, did I?
120. 3:50Sorry.
121. 3:51Cameco competes against two key and they
122. 3:53win against both. Against state-backed
123. 3:55players like Kazatomprom, Rosatom, and
124. 3:56CNNC, Cameco wins on geopolitical trust.
125. 3:59After the Iran conflict, Western
126. 4:00utilities are moving supply chains away
127. 4:02from Russian and Chinese sources. So,
128. 4:04that's not a preference, but it's a
129. 4:05mandate. Now, against junior developers
130. 4:07like NextGen Mines, Denison, Uranium
131. 4:09Energy, who do have a deposits, Cameco
132. 4:11wins on establishment. They've been in
133. 4:13the industry for over 40 years and they
134. 4:15have infrastructure that these juniors
135. 4:16can't replicate. Four key modes protect
136. 4:18this position: long-term switching
137. 4:20costs, asset scarcity, vertical
138. 4:22integration, and jurisdictional trust.
139. 4:24No competitor holds all four outside of
140. 4:26Cameco. And a new catalyst emerged in
141. 4:28March 2026. Cameco signed a $1.9 billion
142. 4:329-year supply deal with India, who just
143. 4:34opened their nuclear markets for an
144. 4:36investment. This market is projected to
145. 4:38expand their capacity by 11x in the next
146. 4:4014 years and Cameco spearheaded into
147. 4:42that market.
148. 4:44Let's see the financial advantage from
149. 4:46these competitive advantages.
150. 4:47The financial year of 2025 had extremely
151. 4:50strong results and Q1 2026 confirmed
152. 4:52this. Uranium had $3 billion Canadian in
153. 4:55revenues, up 7%. The average realized
154. 4:57price of their contracts was only $66 a
155. 4:59pound compared to the spot prices at 87.
156. 5:02As old contracts expire, this new gap is
157. 5:05going to close and that's going to lead
158. 5:06to enormous revenue growth. Fuel
159. 5:08services, $562 Canadian in revenue, up
160. 5:1022% year-on-year, but EBITDA up 51%
161. 5:14year-on-year, margins expanding in an
162. 5:16extremely positive trend. Lastly,
163. 5:18Westinghouse. They had $3.5 billion
164. 5:21Canadian in revenue and $780 million in
165. 5:24EBITDA, up 61%. The $80 billion US
166. 5:27government deal they signed earlier this
167. 5:29year points to a sustained long-term
168. 5:30earnings trajectory. In Q1 2026, they
169. 5:33saw net earnings of 87% year-on-year.
170. 5:36Every segment is growing, margins are
171. 5:38expanding, and catalysts are only
172. 5:40getting stronger. So, let me walk you
173. 5:42through my valuation.
174. 5:44I use three key metrics. First, I use
175. 5:47the discounted cash model, which gave me
176. 5:49a valuation of $146 per share. I use a
177. 5:51terminal growth rate of 3.5%
178. 5:54revenue growth rates ranging from 19 to
179. 5:5624% over a 10-year projection. And
180. 5:58lastly, I use a discount rate of 9.7,
181. 6:02which I got using the WACC model.
182. 6:04Next, because I didn't trust one model
183. 6:06alone that relied on internal
184. 6:07assumptions, I looked at market
185. 6:08valuation with trading comparables. I
186. 6:11use the EV relative to net asset value
187. 6:13of the company. And this is a massive
188. 6:14valuation, $241 per share. Cameco only
189. 6:17trades at 1X net asset value. Well,
190. 6:19while the market, they trade at 2.09X.
191. 6:22Closing that gap implies a 123%
192. 6:25upside.
193. 6:26Lastly, I use the sum of parts. As a
194. 6:28business has three very distinct
195. 6:30different parts, I had to value those
196. 6:31independent to the market. And this gave
197. 6:33me a valuation of $144 per share.
198. 6:37Bringing that to my targets, using my
199. 6:38DCF and my sum of parts, I got an
200. 6:41estimate of $155 or 43% upside in the
201. 6:44next 1 year.
202. 6:45My 5-year target, I got a different
203. 6:47method. I got a $300 valuation or 178%
204. 6:50return because I anchored it using
205. 6:52precedent. Tier 1 producers like Cameco
206. 6:54gained over 400% in stock price in the 5
207. 6:57years leading up to the 2007 surge. So,
208. 6:59relative to that, 178% is a more
209. 7:01disciplined assumption.
210. 7:03What could go wrong?
211. 7:05Four key risks. First of all, uranium
212. 7:06prices. A lot of my thesis relies on the
213. 7:09fact that the price
214. 7:10between the realized price of 66 and the
215. 7:12current spot price of $87 is going to
216. 7:14close. But if the spot prices fall to
217. 7:17below $70 for a sustained period of
218. 7:18time, that's not going to hit and show
219. 7:20in our revenues. However, the 60 million
220. 7:22pound supply deficit makes this
221. 7:23extremely unlikely as uranium is getting
222. 7:25more valuable by the day as we deplete
223. 7:27more of it. Next, operational risk. As
224. 7:29we've seen with disasters before, any
225. 7:31operation failures such as Chernobyl or
226. 7:34the Saskatchewan burst collapse or
227. 7:36Fukushima could halt uranium prices. But
228. 7:38every time there's a disaster, we learn
229. 7:40from it. We grow stronger and we grow
230. 7:41more resilient, and we learn how to
231. 7:43avoid it. That's why I don't believe
232. 7:45there's going to be any disaster in
233. 7:46there a prolonged bear market. Lastly,
234. 7:49we have policy risk.
235. 7:50The last time that uranium saw massive
236. 7:52fall in the 5 years after Fukushima was
237. 7:54because every country in the world put
238. 7:56their policies away from nuclear.
239. 7:57But the US government has pledged to
240. 7:59increase their capacity to 400
241. 8:01gigawatts. They've spent 80 billion
242. 8:03dollars. India has spent 2 billion
243. 8:04dollars. Every country signatory to COP
244. 8:0628 has pledged to triple their nuclear
245. 8:08capacity. That's why I believe a
246. 8:09regulation reversal is highly unlikely.
247. 8:14Now, I want to talk about AI, the
248. 8:16biggest buzzword right now, and where do
249. 8:18we have opportunities?
250. 8:19As I mentioned before, data center
251. 8:20electricity demand is doubling within
252. 8:22the next 4 years. 50% of new nuclear
253. 8:24energy
254. 8:25through 2030 comes from AI
255. 8:27infrastructure. Meta has committed 7.8
256. 8:29gigawatts to nuclear, Microsoft 800,
257. 8:32Google, Amazon, and every hyperscaler
258. 8:33has signed a nuclear PPA. They need base
259. 8:36load energy, and they're choosing
260. 8:37nuclear.
261. 8:38By this, we can see that Cameco isn't
262. 8:40just a fuel company or an energy
263. 8:41company, but they're key AI
264. 8:43infrastructure.
265. 8:44Finally, ESG.
266. 8:46So, Cameco holds a MSCI ESG rating of
267. 8:49double A, the second highest possible,
268. 8:51and a Refinitiv score of 82 out of 100,
269. 8:53first out of 20 global uranium
270. 8:55companies.
271. 8:56This is because they're the leading
272. 8:57environmental company in terms of
273. 8:58energy.
274. 8:59Nuclear only emits 12 g of carbon
275. 9:01dioxide per kilowatt hour, comparable to
276. 9:03solar and wind, whereas gas emits 1,000
277. 9:06g.
278. 9:07Furthermore, a 1,000 megawatt plant of
279. 9:09nuclear needs only 1 mile of square
280. 9:11land, 1 square mile of land, whereas
281. 9:13solar and wind need 360 and 75 square
282. 9:16miles of land, respectively. This shows
283. 9:18that beyond low emissions and better
284. 9:21waste structures, this is also better
285. 9:23for the environment in terms of
286. 9:24deforestation and land. You're not
287. 9:25compromising on your values by owning
288. 9:27Cameco, but you're investing in the
289. 9:28cleanest, most reliable large-scale
290. 9:31energy operator on Earth, led by a
291. 9:33sector-leading ESG operator.
292. 9:35Let me bring this home.
293. 9:37The answer to the global energy problem
294. 9:39is nuclear. The answer to nuclear is
295. 9:41chemical.
296. 9:43They have vertical integration. There's
297. 9:44a structural demand search happening as
298. 9:46we speak. Uranium is only getting better
299. 9:48as a commodity as we speak. A company is
300. 9:50trading at 1.0 net asset value while the
301. 9:52market trades at 2.9.
302. 9:54The vision is extremely clear. 43%
303. 9:57upside in 1 year, 178% or more in the
304. 10:00next 5 years. The nuclear renaissance
305. 10:02isn't just a trend or a theme or a
306. 10:05trade, but it's a structural decade-long
307. 10:07demand shift, and Chemical is the
308. 10:09clearest way to own that. Thank you.