2026 WWT Championship Course Preview : El Cardonal at Diamante Course Notes, Analytics + Modeling — Transcript

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1. 0:07What's going on golf fans? It's your boy
2. 0:08GS Luke here with our course breakdown
3. 0:10for the 2026 Worldwide Technology
4. 0:12Championship. Going to go over El
5. 0:13Cardinal Damonte, what to expect from
6. 0:15this week on tour, what top key stats, a
7. 0:17hoba hole breakdown of all the shots
8. 0:19that these players are going to be
9. 0:20facing, as well as a few comp courses,
10. 0:22what to be looking for in your top
11. 0:23players to hopefully have yourself a
12. 0:25week. So, by the end to be an expert on
13. 0:27everything for Elcart and all. So,
14. 0:29without further ado, let's go ahead and
15. 0:30get this thing started. We've got the
16. 0:32Greens Keeper sheet up, and as you can
17. 0:33see, it is a par 72. It measures 7,452
18. 0:37yards. So, I would say it's got some
19. 0:39length to it. Maybe not an elite bomber
20. 0:41style golf course. And last year, it
21. 0:42actually favored accuracy over the
22. 0:44power. Before that, it had been a power
23. 0:46over an accuracy course. So, I don't
24. 0:48think you have to be a bomber to find
25. 0:49success here. And you also don't have to
26. 0:51be a real accurate player. But, we'll
27. 0:52expand more on that stat section later.
28. 0:54But, they've got past polygraphs from
29. 0:56tip to toe around here. the same exact
30. 0:58type of aronomy that we had just last
31. 1:00week. So, players that have excelled in
32. 1:02Mexico in the past, perhaps it might be
33. 1:04due to the type of grass that they are
34. 1:06playing on. We've also got extremely
35. 1:08large green complexes. They are about
36. 1:108,300 square ft. But something that has
37. 1:12been extremely apparent at this golf
38. 1:13course over the last couple years is
39. 1:15that when you miss the greens around El
40. 1:17Cardonol, you are going to be punished.
41. 1:19It's got one of the harder up and down
42. 1:20rates of any course that we've got on
43. 1:22the PGA Tour. So, not a whole bunch of
44. 1:24water as you'd expect for almost a
45. 1:26desert style golf course. Only one of
46. 1:27the 18 holes having that in play. And
47. 1:29let's show you some of the averages at
48. 1:31this golf course over the last three
49. 1:32seasons. So, if you scroll down here,
50. 1:34the fairway average almost 90%. That's
51. 1:37one of the highest rates on all the PGA
52. 1:38Tour. But when you miss those fairways,
53. 1:41there were a lot of penalty shots to be
54. 1:43had, so you can't completely ignore
55. 1:45that. I guess your grade regulation
56. 1:46percentage also much higher than normal,
57. 1:48about 15% higher than most weeks because
58. 1:50of how large those grains were. Your
59. 1:52scrambling percentage though, and this
60. 1:54is what I wanted to point out from
61. 1:55before, is about 5% lower than most
62. 1:58weeks on tour. So, if you are somebody
63. 2:00that's not dialed in with the iron play,
64. 2:02you can still shoot over par if you
65. 2:03aren't careful around there. But, your
66. 2:05scoring average is minus 2.66. The vast
67. 2:08majority of your players are going to
68. 2:09take this place low. Winning score was
69. 2:11minus 29 the last time out. That's
70. 2:13accomplished with the birdie average at
71. 2:155.29. The last three years, the bogeyear
72. 2:17worse average has only been 2.01 per
73. 2:19round. So, this is definitely a birdie
74. 2:21fest compared to most weeks on tour. And
75. 2:23when we go hole by hole, I can show you
76. 2:24some of the shots that these players are
77. 2:26facing. Hole number one, one of the
78. 2:27easier holes, something that you
79. 2:29definitely have to take advantage of is
80. 2:30a 545 yard par five. You get a lot of
81. 2:33roll out in these fairways, especially
82. 2:35when it's not as soft as what you saw in
83. 2:37Mexico last week. So, this could play
84. 2:39even closer to 500 yards on a drier sort
85. 2:41of golf course. Hole two is 205 yards, a
86. 2:44longer iron shot. And I think if
87. 2:46anything, there's going to be a few
88. 2:47extra shots from 175 to 200. Also from
89. 2:50200 to 225. So that's something that
90. 2:52you'll see me incorporating into my
91. 2:53modeling this week. But this would be
92. 2:55one of those sort of iron shots. Hole 3
93. 2:57is 354. A potentially drivable par4 if
94. 3:00it plays down wind. They might even
95. 3:02tinker around with moving up a T- box at
96. 3:04some point. I don't think they've done
97. 3:05it at this point yet, but something I
98. 3:08think would at least be within reason on
99. 3:10a moving day setup. Hole four is 491. A
100. 3:13longer par4. Another one of those iron
101. 3:15shots. Even if you hit a driver off the
102. 3:16tee, that's probably going to be at at
103. 3:18least 175 yards and in. So long iron
104. 3:21play. Something that could be niche for
105. 3:22this golf course. Hole five is 445. More
106. 3:25of a mid-length par4. You do have a lot
107. 3:27of wellplaced bunkers in the fairway
108. 3:29though. So, you know, if you miss to the
109. 3:31right in this natural area, it has been
110. 3:32problematic at times for people that get
111. 3:34into the shrubs that you see on the
112. 3:36right. Um, but a lot of people though
113. 3:37will just hit a 3-wood to the corner and
114. 3:39then attack with a mid- iron in, maybe
115. 3:41even another shot from 175 plus if you
116. 3:43maybe hit a driving iron off the tea
117. 3:45there. Hole six is a 604 yard par five,
118. 3:48a longer one where having some power is
119. 3:50really useful because getting home and
120. 3:52two or getting around the green in two
121. 3:53for an up and down, especially with an
122. 3:55awkwardly shaped green like this is
123. 3:57super useful. Hole seven is 503 yards,
124. 4:00but it is a par4. So, it's another hole
125. 4:02where you have a long iron shot in where
126. 4:04you're going to have to be real precise
127. 4:06as these greens um while they are in the
128. 4:08larger spectrum for most of the holes.
129. 4:10This is not one of those holes where you
130. 4:11have one of those larger greens. It's
131. 4:12extremely narrow and it's going to have
132. 4:14one of the lower green regulation
133. 4:16percentages of any of the holes out
134. 4:18there. Hole 8 is 486. Another longer
135. 4:20par4. This one though is a bit more
136. 4:22manageable as the green is a bit larger
137. 4:25than you saw at the last hole. It's got
138. 4:27some depth to it. Also, a lot more width
139. 4:29as you can see there too. Hole number
140. 4:31nine is 204 yards. It is a longer iron
141. 4:33shot in. I'd say the only problematic
142. 4:36pin location here is what you have on
143. 4:37the left as it's almost not even on the
144. 4:40green if they put it over that sand
145. 4:42trap. But, uh, right side pin locations
146. 4:44are probably about a five out of 10
147. 4:45difficulty. Still a long iron shot in,
148. 4:48but uh, those left ones, they used it on
149. 4:50Sunday last year. Uh, was just fun to
150. 4:52watch. Hole 10 is 357. So, if you're
151. 4:55starting on this side, it's another easy
152. 4:56hole. Like hole one, that's that par
153. 4:58five. This one's a potentially drivable
154. 5:00par4 if it plays down wind. Also another
155. 5:02hole like hole three that maybe they
156. 5:04move up the T- box on on moving day and
157. 5:06truly make it like 300 yards. Hole 11 is
158. 5:10193. Another long iron shot into a par
159. 5:12three. I'm not going to say it again,
160. 5:14but I think you get the point, right?
161. 5:15The long irons could be a factor at this
162. 5:17course. Hole 12 is 411. Another shorter
163. 5:20par4. This is one where you're going to
164. 5:21have a wedge in hand no matter what you
165. 5:23hit off the tee. So this will be one of
166. 5:25the easier holes that you have on the
167. 5:27golf course. Hole 13 is 476. So, a
168. 5:30little bit of a tougher hole after that
169. 5:32more getable one ahead of it, but an
170. 5:34extremely wide landing area for your
171. 5:36T-shot. So, if you miss the fairway
172. 5:38there, um you're a doofus. 14 is 580.
173. 5:41This is a longer par five, but should be
174. 5:43reachable for everyone that at least
175. 5:45hits the fairway or if you're a shorter
176. 5:47player, maybe you'll get it up within 20
177. 5:49to 30 yards of the front of the green.
178. 5:51So, a more scorable hole in the bombers
179. 5:53will be able to attack that green with
180. 5:55the second shot. So, another hole where
181. 5:57having some power is advantageous. 15 is
182. 6:00461, a mid-length par4. If you hit
183. 6:03driver here, you could even have a wedge
184. 6:04in hand. But if you hit less than driver
185. 6:06because of that bunker, it's still only
186. 6:08going to be an eight or a 9 iron at
187. 6:10most. 16 is 154. This is the shortest of
188. 6:13all the par 3s. Might be tempting to say
189. 6:15that it's the easiest, but it's not
190. 6:17always the easiest. It's got a big drop
191. 6:19off from the tea to the green. It's also
192. 6:21got this natural area around it, which
193. 6:23is almost a lost ball every single time.
194. 6:25So, it's one where there's a lot of
195. 6:27variance. You're going to see some
196. 6:28birdies because it's a wedge shot in
197. 6:30there, but if you miss, it could be a
198. 6:31double or a triple bogey real quick. 17
199. 6:34is 467, a mid-length par4. Another one
200. 6:38of those insanely wide landing areas
201. 6:40that if you miss the fairway, shame on
202. 6:42you for being a tour player. And then
203. 6:44finally, 18. You've got a 537 yard par
204. 6:47five. uh I would say either the easiest
205. 6:49or second easiest hole that you'll see
206. 6:51for every single round and reachable
207. 6:53even if you do end up missing the
208. 6:55fairway. So this is a hole that you have
209. 6:57to take advantage of of a player. And
210. 6:58now let's go through some of the key
211. 7:00stats for this week. And what you'll see
212. 7:01in my modeling from last year is an
213. 7:03emphasis on ball striking stats. Also
214. 7:05adding a lot of scoring stats in there.
215. 7:07So here on the left I've got off the tea
216. 7:09and approach play over the last 24
217. 7:10rounds. That's always important
218. 7:12regardless of what golf course that
219. 7:13we're looking at. But at a track where
220. 7:15around the green, I mean, you got like a
221. 7:1690% green in regulation rate. I know
222. 7:18it's hard to get up and down when you
223. 7:20miss, but if you're missing greens,
224. 7:22that's the problem to begin with. So, I
225. 7:23want guys that can hit the ball long and
226. 7:25straight off the tea. And especially
227. 7:26that shots gained approach, that's the
228. 7:28one that I'm emphasizing the most
229. 7:29between these two categories. So, your
230. 7:31best off the tea players lately, we have
231. 7:32Ventura, Shipley, Sergeant, Ben James,
232. 7:35all those guys hitting it long and
233. 7:36straight over the last 24 rounds. But,
234. 7:39uh, all these guys getting a sizable
235. 7:40bump up in my modeling. The approach
236. 7:42play though, if you're one of these guys
237. 7:43into the dark green here, these are guys
238. 7:46that are getting a massive bump up in my
239. 7:48modeling. In fact, Ben Kohl's is your
240. 7:49number two approach player in the field,
241. 7:51he's number seven overall. You've got
242. 7:53Blades Brown, who's in the top five of
243. 7:54the approach play and one of those
244. 7:56really good off the tea players. He's at
245. 7:58number three in the modeling. Trace Crow
246. 7:59has been really emerging over the last
247. 8:01couple months. He's at number two in my
248. 8:03modeling because what you're seeing
249. 8:04there on approach, he give me good ball
250. 8:06striking stats during this fall swing
251. 8:08and some of these niche stats that we're
252. 8:09about to go through. And that's what
253. 8:11really makes some of these guys stand
254. 8:12out. But because it is a golf tournament
255. 8:14that was won at minus 29, minus 20 or
256. 8:16better winning score every single year,
257. 8:18you're gonna have to make some putts. So
258. 8:20I don't think some bad putting form guys
259. 8:22um should be ignored. Right? If you're
260. 8:23coming in losing a half a stroke per
261. 8:25round to the field, that is slightly
262. 8:26problematic for me. But if you can give
263. 8:28me some halfdecent ball striking stats
264. 8:30and good putting, all like a Michael Kim
265. 8:32kind of checks that box. Even Harry Hall
266. 8:35to some extent has been okay ball
267. 8:36striking but really gaining with the
268. 8:38putter. they could kind of stand out at
269. 8:39a birdie fest like this. A birdie or
270. 8:41better percentage is also another really
271. 8:42good way to take a look at those
272. 8:44aggressive players. To get to close to
273. 8:46minus 30, you're going to have to shoot
274. 8:47some minus 7s or minus 8s to pull that
275. 8:49off. So, we want the players that
276. 8:51actually have that within their range of
277. 8:52outcomes. Zack B shoes are making a
278. 8:54metric [ __ ] ton of birdies. Mackenzie
279. 8:56Hughes, Sheamus Power, Ben James, and
280. 8:57Chris Kirk also standing out there. But
281. 9:00because we are at a pass polom golf
282. 9:02course and we have had, you know, a few
283. 9:04weeks now of sample size in 2026 to work
284. 9:06off of, if you want to look at shots
285. 9:08gained putting on this type of surface,
286. 9:10I think that's also something that could
287. 9:11help you out. And to go back to Trace
288. 9:13Crow had those really good approach
289. 9:14stats. The reason why he's number two
290. 9:16this week is because he's also really
291. 9:18good on this type of aronomy. And
292. 9:19Mackenzie Hughes has also been really
293. 9:21good on past pollen grass. Zeng Dal as
294. 9:23well are all kind of the course horses
295. 9:25that I'm going to be eyeing up. But
296. 9:26they've got some comp course history on
297. 9:28there. shots gained at the Black Desert
298. 9:29Resorts. Another resort style course
299. 9:31that's got a very similar look off the
300. 9:33tea. I'm also going to throw out Vidanta
301. 9:35World from last week at the Mexico Open.
302. 9:37Same type of aronomy, also very similar
303. 9:39looks off the tea that you can use for
304. 9:40that. This is my modeling from 2025. So,
305. 9:43just know that I am going to have to
306. 9:44adjust this a bit for 2026. Which
307. 9:46speaking of the big adjustment for me is
308. 9:48going to be this last category. Last
309. 9:50year, I thought it was going to be all
310. 9:51about the driving distance. And if you
311. 9:52take a look at the inevent correlations,
312. 9:55it was actually a driving accuracy year
313. 9:57last year. Now, am I going to completely
314. 9:58change my modeling to go from driving
315. 10:00distance to driving accuracy? Heck no.
316. 10:02What I'm going to do for this year is
317. 10:03I'm going to take out this driving
318. 10:04distance tab and I'm just going to
319. 10:06emphasize regular shots gained off the
320. 10:07tea a bit more because I was going
321. 10:09through those stats. You could see the
322. 10:10par fives that were reachable, the par
323. 10:11fours where it would be advantageous to
324. 10:13be long, but also where those big
325. 10:14numbers could come into play if you're
326. 10:16missing offline. So, that'll be what my
327. 10:18modeling looks like for 2026. You guys
328. 10:20want all of that, check out the golf
329. 10:21tsier for everything in its entirety.
330. 10:23But that's all I've got for this week.
331. 10:24All righty, guys. Guys, that is all I've
332. 10:26got for the course breakdown this week.
333. 10:27Go ahead, smash that like button if you
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336. 10:31the content to come. We are going to
337. 10:33have a betting a DFS breakdown dropping
338. 10:34on tomorrow. Also, live streams for
339. 10:36rounds two through four throughout this
340. 10:38event. So, make sure you stay tuned for
341. 10:40all of that. And for a chance to earn a
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343. 10:43where all the DFS sheets are posted,
344. 10:44also all the props and bets that I'm
345. 10:46taking for this event will be posted,
346. 10:48too. Just go ahead comment what you
347. 10:49think the winning score is going to be
348. 10:50for this week. And if you are the first
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355. 11:01course, best of luck with everything
356. 11:02that you guys are going with. I hope you
357. 11:03guys crush everything for this week. And
358. 11:05I see you guys for that betting and DFS
359. 11:07breakdown a little bit later on
360. 11:08tomorrow.