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2026 will be India's Hottest Year | SUPER El Niño is Coming | Dhruv Rathee — Transcript

by Dhruv Rathee · 3,099 words · 423 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00In 1877,
0:01the summer was so hot and terrifying
0:04that in the Madras Presidency of British India,
0:07millions of people were killed.
0:09Every road, every village,
0:10was full of corpses.
0:12In this one massacre,
0:13about 2 crore people were killed.
0:16It was a famine that made India almost barren.
0:19But surprisingly,
0:21it wasn't just India.
0:22In the same year,
0:24there was a terrible massacre in China.
0:26About 2 to 3 crore people died.
0:29There was a famine in Brazil as well.
0:31About 200,000 people died.
0:32Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, and Southern Africa,
0:35all these places were hit by the plague.
0:38Throughout the whole world, on different continents,
0:41millions of people were dying of hunger.
0:44In Minnesota, America,
0:45that year was called the year without a winter.
0:48The winter season must have disappeared that year.
0:51The question is, what happened in 1877?
0:55Its root cause was not an earthquake,
0:57war, or disease.
0:59In reality, it was a natural phenomenon
1:01that started thousands of kilometers away, on the coast of Peru,
1:04in a small part of the ocean.
1:06In the 70s, Peruvian fishermen named it with love,
1:10El Niño,
1:11meaning a small child.
1:13But that year, this natural phenomenon became so extreme,
1:16so extreme,
1:18that it became the cause of the deaths of millions of people.
1:20That year, it was named Super El Niño.
1:24And today, in 2026,
1:26after about 140 years,
1:28it is coming back.
1:30The biggest weather forecasting centre in Europe,
1:32with the latest models from the ECMWF,
1:34says that the biggest El Niño in the last 140 years is coming.
1:39Some experts are calling it the Mega El Niño.
1:41And it is being said that the summer of 2026,
1:45the most dangerous summer in human history,
1:48is coming.
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2:44The Indian Meteorological Department has started giving heatwave warnings.
2:48The temperature in Delhi has exceeded 40°C.
2:51In UP and Rajasthan, it's 42°C to 43°C.
2:53In cities like Nagpur, Bhopal, and Bhubaneswar,
2:56it has reached 45°C.
2:58And it's still only April.
3:00A video went viral in Bangalore
3:01where crayons were kept in the sun
3:03and started melting.
3:04They were turning into colorful liquid and flowing in the tray.
3:07To understand this issue better,
3:09we need to know what exactly El Niño is.
3:12In simple terms,
3:14in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean,
3:16where cold water is usually expected,
3:19the water suddenly gets unusually hot.
3:22And when trillions of liters of water get heated at once,
3:25so much heat is released
3:27that the wind, rain, and weather patterns of the entire planet change.
3:32The Pacific Ocean is the world's largest and deepest ocean.
3:36The winds normally blow in an easterly to westerly direction.
3:39These winds are called trade winds,
3:41and they mostly flow from America to Asia and Australia.
3:46What happens is that the water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean
3:50starts to flow towards the West,
3:52toward Australia.
3:53And when the water flows across,
3:55the deep water below the sea starts moving upward in the east.
3:59So the water starts rising from the sea near South America.
4:03And this water is comparatively colder.
4:05It has more nutrients.
4:07This is a normal situation,
4:08where warm water flows towards Australia
4:10and cold water flows towards South America.
4:12When the water is warm,
4:14it evaporates more easily.
4:16And because of that evaporation,
4:17clouds form,
4:19leading to heavy rain near Australia.
4:22But now imagine that the trade winds have weakened.
4:25When the winds are not blowing fast,
4:27the cold water coming up toward South America
4:30will stop rising.
4:31The surface will remain hot,
4:34and the rain intended for Australia
4:36will fall in the middle of the Pacific Ocean
4:38or elsewhere.
4:39This phenomenon is called El Niño.
4:42It is like a cycle.
4:44But it's not a regular cycle.
4:46Sometimes it comes every 2 years,
4:47every 5 years, or every 7 years.
4:49But when it happens, it lasts for 6 to 12 months.
4:53And during this duration,
4:54the weather patterns around the world change.
4:56The region of Australia becomes very dry.
4:58There is a lack of rain.
4:59Bushfires are seen.
5:01This dry condition is also carried over to Southeast Asia and India,
5:05where there are weak monsoons and intense heatwaves.
5:08So an ordinary El Niño is bad news for India.
5:11But this year, it could be especially bad news.
5:15The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA
5:18issued its latest advisory in April 2026,
5:21stating that between May and July 2026,
5:25there is a 61% chance of the formation of an El Niño.
5:29And this timing is the most dangerous thing
5:31because El Niño will reach its peak
5:33just as India's monsoon season is reaching its peak.
5:37That is, right when we need rain the most.
5:40Our crops are dependent on the monsoon, and El Niño could destroy everything. The second problem
5:47is the intensity. According to the NOAA, it could be a very strong El Niño.
5:54The temperature of the Pacific Ocean can rise by 2°C.
5:58That makes it a Super El Niño.
6:02You might think that it is only 2°C.
6:06But the fact that the water is more than 2°C warmer
6:10makes a huge difference.
6:13You can understand this using the 2015-16 reference.
6:16The last time a Super El Niño occurred was in 2015.
6:19That year, Marathwada received 40% less rain.
6:22There was 14% less rain in the entirety of India.
6:24And record-breaking heatwaves were seen.
6:26In the history of independent India,
6:28it was one of the deadliest heatwaves.
6:30More than 2,500 people were killed across the country.
6:33More than 2,000 people died in Pakistan because of this heatwave.
6:36But this year's El Niño
6:38could be even greater than the 2015 one.
6:40According to Paul Roundy, a professor at New York State University,
6:44this could be the largest El Niño in the last 140 years.
6:48The third major problem is climate change.
6:50Because of this, the Earth's average baseline temperature has increased.
6:54In 2026, it was around 1.4°C
6:58higher than the pre-industrial average.
7:00This is where the real scary twist comes in.
7:02As I told you, El Niño was a common weather event
7:05that had been occurring for thousands of years.
7:08Before climate change, when El Niño arrived,
7:10the temperature used to rise by 1.4 to 1.5°C.
7:14But today, the baseline is already at 1.4°C.
7:17Now, El Niño will add another 1.5°C.
7:20The net result is 2.9°C.
7:24This huge temperature anomaly has never been seen in human history.
7:28Imagine sitting in a room where the temperature is 40°C
7:32and someone turns on a heater.
7:35This is the mixture of climate change and Super El Niño.
7:39The El Niño that will arrive in 2026
7:41will have a four-layer impact on India.
7:44The first layer is the monsoon season.
7:47The Indian Meteorological Department
7:49has predicted the lowest normal monsoon since 2015.
7:53The normal rainfall is expected to be only 92%.
7:57Apart from parts of Northeast India, Northwest India, and the South Peninsula,
8:00the rest of the country will face a deficit.
8:03The second layer is agriculture.
8:05The problem is that about 51% of India's agriculture
8:08is completely dependent on the monsoon.
8:11The third layer is heatwaves.
8:13Due to Super El Niño, the probability of intense heatwaves increases.
8:16The forecast says that in East Central India, Northwest India,
8:19and the Southeast Peninsula,
8:21there will be more heatwave days than usual this year.
8:242024 was the hottest year in India's history.
8:27Scientists predict that by 2026,
8:30the heat records of 2024 will be broken.
8:33The fourth layer is the effect you will see directly at home.
8:36A below-normal monsoon means lower food production.
8:39And lower food production means higher food prices.
8:42Data shows that in an average El Niño year,
8:45global non-fuel prices rise by 5%.
8:48In a Super El Niño year,
8:50the situation is even worse.
8:51In the case of food,
8:52inflation goes up by 9%.
8:55And India's inflation is already high.
8:58On one hand, the pressure of war in Iran,
9:00coupled with a bad monsoon,
9:01can make things even worse.
9:03And the worst effect of this will be on those people
9:05who can't afford an air conditioner
9:07and who don't have a grocery buffer.
9:10To understand how bad 2026 could be,
9:13we have to look at 2024.
9:152024 was the hottest year since 1901.
9:191901 was when official recording started.
9:22In 2024, the temperature in Churu, Rajasthan, was 50.5°C.
9:26In Ganganagar, Rajasthan, it was 49.4°C.
9:29And in Delhi NCR, it reached 49.1°C.
9:33In May 2024 alone, heatwave days increased by 125. And here comes another thing that TV
9:39and news channels often miss. People usually think that heatwaves are only dangerous during the day.
9:45But heatwaves don't only kill during the day.
9:47What's most dangerous is the body not cooling down at night.
9:50This prevents our body from recovering,
9:53and the risk of heatstroke multiplies.
9:55To understand how serious this is,
9:57look at the numbers for Delhi in 2024.
9:59In 2024, Delhi's daytime temperature increased by only 1.8°C,
10:04but the temperature at night increased by 4.4 degrees.
10:07In May and June of 2024,
10:09the temperature remained above 30 degrees for 24 nights.
10:12This was double the average temperature from 2001 to 2010.
10:16There is a local reason behind this,
10:18which is known as the Urban Heat Island Effect.
10:21We are cutting down trees in cities,
10:23and concrete is standing in place of open spaces.
10:25Concrete absorbs heat during the day
10:28and slowly releases that heat at night.
10:31Apart from this, there's a paradox in the heat.
10:34People often use ACs to cool down their homes.
10:37While it cools the house,
10:39the AC itself releases exhaust heat from the back,
10:42which heats up the surrounding area.
10:45This is suffered by people who cannot afford an AC.
10:48In India, 38 crore workers work in heat-exposed sectors.
10:52They drive rickshaws,
10:54they dig stones at construction sites,
10:56sell goods on the roads,
10:57and deliver packages.
10:59This work is mostly informal.
11:01They have no paid leave,
11:03no health insurance,
11:04and no legal protection.
11:05These people carry the burden of the increasing heat.
11:08According to a study conducted on 400 workers in Delhi,
11:11with a temperature increase of only 1°C,
11:13their earnings fall by 14%.
11:15And during a heatwave,
11:17their income drops by 40%.
11:19The reason behind this is the cost of medicines, water, and ice.
11:22On a national level,
11:23it is estimated that in 2024,
11:25due to the heatwave, India lost $194 billion.
11:30Even government officials suffer the consequences.
11:33In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections,
11:3633 polling officers were killed by heatstroke in Madhya Pradesh
11:39while performing government duties.
11:41It was the government's responsibility to take steps to save people from heatwaves.
11:46But let alone saving lives,
11:48the government didn't even want to count their deaths.
11:51Three different government agencies,
11:53the NCRB, NDMA, and IMD,
11:55gave different numbers from 2000 to 2020.
11:59The NCRB said that more than 20,000 deaths were caused by heatwaves.
12:02The IMD said only around 10,000.
12:05The reason is that doctors write on death certificates
12:08that the causes are cardiac arrest, organ failure, or dehydration.
12:11But the heat is never acknowledged as the trigger.
12:15The actual number is much higher.
12:17A detailed analysis estimated that
12:19every summer,
12:21about 1.5 lakh people die from heatwaves.
12:23The condition is so bad that
12:251 out of every 5 people who die from heatwaves in the world
12:29is Indian.
12:30Twelve natural disasters in India have been officially recognized.
12:34This includes cold waves, but not heatwaves.
12:37Why not?
12:37Because if a heatwave is made a notified disaster,
12:40then the National Disaster Response Fund
12:42will have to pay compensation of Rs 4 lakhs
12:45for every confirmed heat death.
12:47Since the government doesn't want to spend this money,
12:49deaths remain uncounted.
12:52On July 25th, 2024,
12:53the Modi government clearly stated in Parliament
12:56that there was no plan to include heatwaves as a notified disaster.
13:01The question arises,
13:03is there a cheap and simple solution to this problem?
13:07There is.
13:08A solution has been discovered
13:10to reduce the temperature by 12°C at the pedestrian level.
13:15Imagine how much of a difference 12°C makes.
13:18If the temperature is 47°C,
13:19it could go down to 35°C.
13:22This simple solution
13:23is planting trees.
13:25182 meta-studies have confirmed this. The more trees and less concrete
13:31we have, the less the temperature will increase at night,
13:37and heatwave deaths will decrease.
13:39So the question is, are trees being planted in India?
13:42Unfortunately, not at all.
13:45In fact, the trend is being reversed.
13:46In just 2024, 18,200 hectares of primary forests were cut.
13:51Mangroves are being cut in Mumbai.
13:57In Delhi, ignoring the Supreme Court's 1996 order,
14:02the DDA cut down the Ridge Forest.
14:03In Gadchiroli, Maharashtra,
14:051.23 lakh trees were cut down for a mining plant.
14:08The government approved it.
14:10In Nashik, banyan trees that are hundreds of years old are being cut down.
14:23More than 1,000 trees are being cut down
14:25specifically for the Kumbh Mela.
14:27In Hasdev, a whole forest was destroyed to make a mine.
14:31The government and the company disappointed the Adivasis.
14:35The village assembly was held three times.
14:38People refused.
14:39They didn't want to give up their land.
14:40So they held a meeting for the fourth time.
14:42They pressured the head of the village.
14:44They forced him to sign the documents.
14:46In the last year, more than 12,500 trees were cut in Gurgaon.
14:51This is the situation in almost all the cities in the country.
14:53And when asked why they are cutting so many trees,
14:55they give the excuse that it is for development.
14:59They claim that if one tree is cut, 10 more are planted.
15:02But do you know the truth?
15:04How many trees are actually being planted?
15:06Between 2015 and 2019,
15:0818 square kilometers of old trees were cut
15:10for every square kilometer of new trees planted.
15:13This is the rate of deforestation in the country.
15:15And 50% of the new trees that have been planted
15:18are in isolated patches,
15:20which have no ecological benefit.
15:22I'm not just saying this. It's from a study by IIT Bombay.
15:25Hearing this will give you a natural reaction.
15:28You realize these are all very dangerous things happening.
15:31But the question is, what can a single person do?
15:34I can't stop El Niño alone.
15:36Nor can I stop climate change alone.
15:39So, what can one individual do?
15:42There are some things that are in your hands.
15:44Get inspiration from the activists in Nashik.
15:47Save every single tree in your city
15:50and your neighborhood from being cut down.
15:58You are the power!
16:01This is the most important thing.
16:02It is important to plant new trees,
16:04but the most vital thing is to save the old ones.
16:06Because when you plant new saplings,
16:0990% of them die.
16:11Actually taking care of new saplings for years
16:14and watching those trees grow
16:16takes a long time.
16:18And the chances of success are very low.
16:20So do plant new trees,
16:22but don't forget to save the old ones.
16:24Apart from that, during summer days,
16:26don't plan to go out between 12 and 4 pm.
16:29Keep your body hydrated.
16:31Keep an ORS packet with you.
16:32It only costs 10 to 12 rupees.
16:34And it's the first line of defense against heatstroke.
16:37Other than this, look at the people around you.
16:39The security guard in the society.
16:41The delivery boy who comes to your home.
16:43The construction worker who works in the sun.
16:46The street vendor who is outside.
16:48Offer them cold water.
16:50And if possible, offer them a cool place to rest.
16:54Because they are at the highest risk of being killed by heatstroke.
16:58Third, we cannot stop climate change alone,
17:01but we can collectively make a small contribution.
17:06The electricity that comes to your home
17:08is largely generated from coal.
17:10India's electricity still has a 70% coal contribution.
17:13This not only spreads air pollution,
17:16but also has a huge impact on climate change. Stop being dependent on the grid. Install solar panels at your home. If there
17:23is no roof, you can put solar panels on your balcony. In recent times, the price of solar panels has dropped significantly.
17:30Actually, it will save you money.
17:32Look at countries like Syria,
17:33where the war had destroyed everything.
17:35But unintentionally,
17:37there's a solar revolution happening there
17:40because solar has become so cheap
17:48to power homes instead of using private generators.
17:52My own house now runs on solar energy
17:55with the help of panels on the roof.
17:57You can do the same.
17:59And you should.
18:00Because the El Niño that is coming this year
18:02will not be the last.
18:03It will come again after 3 to 4 years.
18:05And then after another 3 to 4 years, it will return.
18:07And every time, it will hit a new, hotter baseline.
18:10If we don't reduce our carbon emissions,
18:13if we don't save the forests,
18:14and don't invest in renewable energy,
18:16then one day, every year will feel like an El Niño year.
18:20The most shocking thing is that children born in 2026
18:24will have a different concept of a normal summer.
18:27They will never know the summers we saw in our childhood,
18:31where it was 30 to 35 degrees.
18:32They won't know how those were.
18:33For them, summers will always mean 45 degrees Celsius.
18:37Forever.
18:38So take action.
18:40Take small steps.
18:41Take care of yourself,
18:43and take care of your loved ones.
18:45Thank you very much!
18:48Don't forget to join the AI Masterclass,
18:50it's going to happen this Sunday.
18:51You can click on the link to join.
18:54If you liked this video
18:56and want to understand more about climate change
18:58and how other countries are fighting it,
19:00then this story is very interesting.
19:02A country that is about to sink
19:04due to rising sea levels.
19:06You can click here to watch it.
19:15Goodbye.

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