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2026 Mexico Open DFS + Betting Preview : Modeling, DFS Core Plays, Values + Outright Bets — Transcript

by Gsluke dfs · 3,941 words · 529 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:01[music]
0:07What is going on golf fans? It's your
0:08boy Gio Luca with our DFS and betting
0:10preview for the 2026 Mexico Open. Going
0:13to get you ready for this week on tour
0:14with a breakdown of the golf course, my
0:16key stats and comps that I'm using to
0:17get to some of my top plays. And then
0:19afterwards, we're going to focus on some
0:20of my exposure with my DFS core, also a
0:23couple value plays, and an outright bet
0:25that I've already placed to give you
0:26guys some exposure to Tales. So, by the
0:28end, you'll be an expert on everything
0:30that you need. So, without further ado,
0:31let's go ahead and get this thing
0:32started. We'll start with a look at my
0:34modeling and the kind of key stats that
0:36I'm looking for. And this is the track
0:38that has been renovated since last year,
0:40but it's still the same PAR71 about 100
0:42yards shorter than last year. And I
0:44think that I have a very similar
0:45identity to the last couple seasons
0:47there. So, I'm not changing all that
0:49much. But, if you guys do want a full
0:51breakdown of all those changes, some of
0:52the key nuances, I think that might be
0:54different here for 2026, check out the
0:56course breakdown. kind of already got up
0:57on the channel, but here's the spark
0:59notes version. And at number one, we've
1:01still got shots gained approach. It is
1:03going to be a softer golf course this
1:04year with them getting a whole bunch of
1:06rain yesterday, a little bit of rain on
1:07Tuesday, too, and perhaps some rain
1:09during the event on top of that. So, I
1:11think this is going to be a second shot
1:13golf course. And because it is a
1:15slightly longer course, especially at
1:17some of the more difficult holes, I was
1:19adding some emphasis from 175 to 200,
1:21also 200 to 225 yards over the last
1:24couple seasons. And I'm going to
1:25continue that here. experience. There
1:27are going to be a few less shots because
1:28of some of the course changes this year,
1:30but I still think that it's going to be
1:32something you can look at. But your last
1:3312 rounds, your last 24 rounds of form
1:36heading in and where the vast majority
1:37of your waiting should be. And at number
1:39two, have got shots gained putting, this
1:41was already one of the easier courses,
1:43one of the easier, lower winning scores
1:45that we've had on the entire schedule.
1:46But with the rain that this course is
1:48taking on, I think it's going to be an
1:50even bigger factor to make some putts
1:51this year. The winning score could even
1:53be minus 255 to minus30. So you can look
1:56at form over the last 12 and last 24
1:58rounds. That would be your shots gained
1:59putting, but also past polom putting
2:01stats is that is the type of grass that
2:03these guys are putting on. The I guess
2:05one caveat with the pass polom category
2:07is that there's only so many courses on
2:09tour with that type of grass. So it's a
2:11small sample size and a lot of the field
2:13you're not going to find that data for.
2:15But if you can, it is a nice added
2:17cherry on top. With your shots gained
2:19off the tee, it's more of a driving
2:20distance than an accuracy course. That
2:22has historically been the case with how
2:24wide the landing areas are around the
2:26Vanta Viarta. Because of that, it is a
2:28super driverheavy course and guys that
2:30hit the ball a long way do get advantage
2:32for that. And I think with some of the
2:33rain that the course has taken on, it
2:35could play even longer this year despite
2:37it being shortened by about a 100 yards.
2:40So, I'm still looking at that driving
2:42distance is one of my key niche stats
2:44for Vanta Viarta. I'm looking at Bernie
2:46better percentage too. That's something
2:47I was already incorporating in the
2:49model, but I think with the soft
2:50conditions, that's going to be even more
2:52so the case. And you'll notice that
2:53there's no shots gained around the green
2:55in the modeling. I think that with this
2:57winning score well past minus 20 that'd
3:00be kind of crazy to be looking at that
3:02this year. So with that comp courses,
3:04I've got some other past polymes also
3:06resort style tracks. They're going to
3:08play super easy. You have Elcart
3:10Damonte. That's actually the home of
3:11next week's events at the Worldwide
3:13Technologies Championship. The Black
3:15Desert Resort course, home of the bank,
3:16a Utah championship just a few weeks
3:18back. By the way, also you can use for
3:20some leaderboard crossover. These are
3:22wide open tracks, routinely better than
3:24minus 20 winning scores that are winning
3:26it. And if you wanted to add some extra
3:28comp courses on top of that, you can
3:29look at some other Caribbean passpum
3:31courses. So for me, that'd be Corales,
3:34home of the Corales Paakana. Also, you
3:36could take a look at the Puerto Rico
3:37open golf course. both of which have the
3:39same type of aronomy as what you'll find
3:41this week and are also driver heavy golf
3:43courses too. And you're going to see
3:45that reflected with some of the plays
3:46that we go through. And our first core
3:48play is going to be Windham Clark at
3:50$10,900 who is in my opinion head and
3:53shoulders better than every other play
3:55on the field. In fact, he's almost like
3:56a mini Scottish shuffler in this kind of
3:58a fall series event. So, I think he
4:00should be priced at closer to $12,000. I
4:03think his outright betting odds should
4:04be closer to 80 or even 9 to1 to win
4:06this sort of event. and he's not getting
4:08that kind of respect from either the
4:10oddsmakers, the DraftKings Pricers, or
4:12even I think the community as a whole.
4:14I've not seen him on a whole bunch of
4:15betting cards. I've not seen him talked
4:17up as like a mustplay in DFS this week.
4:19And I have a completely different take
4:21on it because I think if you were going
4:22to build a golf course for Windam Clark,
4:25it's essentially what we're getting here
4:26at Vantaarta. And let's kind of talk
4:28through that. If we go back to the key
4:29stats and talk through it backwards from
4:31the approach play perspective, he's been
4:33dialed in over the last 24 and last 12
4:35rounds. So, I'll show you that over the
4:37last 24 rounds getting 1.4 shots gained
4:39per round. And although he missed the
4:41cut the last time out, which is really
4:43diluting the shots gained metrics in
4:45elite tier fields, mostly playoff kind
4:47of events, he's still gaining with the
4:49Ta Green stats. So, let's not completely
4:51[ __ ] on him for that kind of
4:52performance. So, he's got the shots
4:53gained approach. Also, if you look at
4:56175 to 200, 200 to 225, he's one of the
4:59best long iron players they have in all
5:00the PGA Tour. Shots gained putting, we
5:02know he's got that down, too. He's one
5:04of the best putters in all the tour and
5:06in fact on past pollen grass has had
5:08quite the career and his starts at the
5:10corral pa and there's not that many
5:12events where you can pull these kind of
5:14stats from but his last time out at
5:15Coralis he had a top 10 finish he had a
5:17top 25 finish the year before that and
5:20without shots gained metrics it's hard
5:21to say exactly how he putted on those
5:23but you'd have to assume that he puted
5:25decently if he got to those kind of
5:26finishes so you know he could have the
5:28past pollen putting going his direction
5:30he's also one of the longest players
5:32that we've got in the field oh and by by
5:33the way, the number one birdie or better
5:35percentage player that we have in all of
5:37the field, too. So, they give me a
5:39little bit of comp course success. I
5:41think maybe a $1,000 too cheap price tag
5:43on DraftKings. And if he's not being
5:45talked up by the masses and is sub 25%
5:48owned, I think there could even be a
5:49Game Theory edge to playing him in DFS.
5:52So, we'll talk more about Windham Clark
5:53later. Hint hint from the outright
5:55vetting angle. Um, but I'm in absolutely
5:57in love with the course fit for this
5:59week. Our next core play is going to be
6:01Luke Clanted at $8,300. And it just
6:03lights me up to be able to talk about my
6:05guy again. You guys know, friend of the
6:07channel here, somebody that I am a
6:09massive, massive fan of, and he's
6:11finally starting to play some of the
6:13golf that we're used to seeing. If you
6:14go to the over the last 24 rounds, he's
6:17been one of the best drivers around the
6:18world. Number one driver in the field
6:20over that sample size, gaining over 1.1
6:23shots gained off the TE round. And with
6:25Luke Clinton's playing his best golf,
6:26there's not a better driver in the
6:27world. He hits it as far as Rory Mroy
6:29hits more fairways than Rory Maroy when
6:31he's playing his best golf. It's just
6:33that for a lot of 2026, he had not been
6:36playing that way. In fact, he had been
6:37losing shots gained off the tea because
6:39of all the missed fairways that have
6:40been plaguing him. But luckily for him,
6:42this golf course is also a match made in
6:44heaven. It's got some of the widest
6:46landing areas on all the PJ tour. That
6:48is massive for somebody that can deal
6:50with some misses, especially to the
6:51right side, but he's not playing his
6:53best golf. And if you look at the last
6:5412 measure grounds, his shots gained off
6:56the tea has actually been a bit of a
6:58problem. He's into the negative over the
7:00last few events, mostly because of some
7:02big misses and penalty shots, which
7:04aren't going to be as prevalent this
7:05week. So, that should hopefully be an
7:07advantage for Luke Clanton around here.
7:09But look at that shots gained approach
7:11where he's been kind of struggling with
7:12the off the tea play. He has more than
7:14made up for it with that second shot
7:16where he's one of the best players or
7:18out of the entire field over the last 12
7:20rounds getting.99 shots gained
7:22approached per round. And although his
7:24sample size on pass poll does not look
7:26that good when you look at these shots
7:28gained metrics, you have to keep in mind
7:29that only so many of the courses with
7:31pass actually have those shots gained
7:33metrics. And the last time we saw him on
7:36pass poll grass, it was a top five
7:38finish at the Puerto Rico open. And if
7:40you're going to finish top five, you're
7:42going to have to make some putts to be
7:43able to pull that off. And that was
7:45another course that is driver heavy. He
7:46was able to leverage that. Uh it was
7:48another weaker field event like we kind
7:50of have here during the fall swing, too.
7:52And with how Luke Clan's been playing
7:53over the last couple starts. Again,
7:54there's a lot of optimism with these
7:56kind of finishes that we've seen. Let me
7:58click on the right tab that you guys can
8:00see that T11 last time out, T7 the start
8:03before that. I mean, there was a time
8:04where Luke Clanton was like by far the
8:06best prospect that we had on the PGA
8:08Tour. Is finishing top five, top 10 as
8:10an amateur before he ever got out here.
8:12If we're even at 90% of that Luke
8:14Clanton, this is way too cheap. He's
8:16probably going to be way underowned
8:18because not that many people are going
8:19to feel good about playing him in the 8K
8:21range after the kind of 2026 that he's
8:23had. So, for me, a perfect large field
8:25GP flyer where I can get some
8:27differentiation into my lineups. And he
8:29really fits the style of golf that we're
8:30playing here. He's got the bomber, good
8:32long iron play. He's been pretty good on
8:33past pollen, but he saw him at the
8:35Puerto Rico Open. So, give me him at
8:37hopefully sub 10% ownership. If you guys
8:39want to download this with all my
8:40projections, all the research tools,
8:42everything that I'm going with for the
8:44Mexico Open, just a reminder that you
8:45guys can find this on the golf DFS tier
8:48on there. It's got everything completely
8:50uncensored that you're seeing blacked
8:51out. So, if you're wondering how to get
8:53my research tools for every single
8:54player that is teeing it up, that's
8:56exactly how you do so. So, check it out
8:58if you guys have not already. Let's go
9:00through a couple value plays now. So, we
9:01got Billy Horchel first at $7,400 who
9:04won at Corales. He had that one
9:06breakthrough victory after the long
9:08drought. Uh, you know, played horribly,
9:10had the crying session at the memorial
9:12earlier that year and then broke through
9:14for that victory. And I think a lot of
9:16people forget about that, but that's the
9:18same type of grass. Another driver heavy
9:20golf course just like what we have this
9:22week. And Billy Horchel, I've been
9:23playing a metric [ __ ] ton over the last
9:25couple months cuz his iron play has been
9:27something special. And there is
9:29something coming for Billy Hoe. Billy
9:30Hoe when he's hitting his irons well is
9:32live to win at any golf course, let
9:34alone a golf course that fits his game
9:36like what we have here. And let me just
9:37show you that approach play in case you
9:39haven't been paying attention. So over
9:41his last 12 measured rounds, he's one of
9:43the best players in the entire field in
9:45the category, gaining84 shots gained
9:47approach per round. This is a golf
9:49course that's a little bit more lenient
9:50from the off the tea perspective. So
9:52maybe that helps Billy Hoe. Although he
9:53is not a bomber, he does hit the ball
9:55about average distance off the tea. So,
9:57I don't think that's going to be a
9:58massive detriment to him at this sort of
10:00golf course, but he's been making some
10:02putts and as you've seen with his
10:04success at the Corales, he's able to
10:06find success on this surface in the
10:08past. And over the last 24 rounds, you
10:10may say, "Oh, it's probably going to
10:11fall off with Billy Horchel stats."
10:13Well, actually, you'd be wrong. His
10:14shots gained approach gets better over
10:16the last 24 round sample size. Still
10:18losing a bit off the tea, which again, I
10:20think this could be a better week for
10:21him because of that, but getting 1.02
10:24shots gained approach per round is next
10:26level stuff. And if he can spike a hot
10:28putter, maybe gain a half a stroke to a
10:30stroke putting per round on this pass
10:32column, that's a top 10 finish even with
10:34upside to potentially win this golf
10:36tournament if he has a really good week
10:37off the tea. And I think that's going to
10:39kind of be what sinks or swims him. If
10:41he has a bad off the tea week, maybe
10:42it's like a top 25 finish that he's able
10:44to post at best. But if he gains a
10:46couple strokes off the tea, that's what
10:48could take him from that top 25 finish
10:50to getting it to contention or perhaps
10:52hoisting that trophy. And then the last
10:54play we got here is going to be Carl
10:55Phillips at $6,900. And you don't
10:58normally want to go into the 6K range
11:00that often on a week like this as it's
11:02got a lot of low-level players. But Carl
11:04Phillips is I think a perfect course fit
11:06here. In fact, if you take a look at my
11:07Vanta course fit ranking, he's at number
11:10six despite being at number 59 in the
11:12pricing and he won at the Puerto Rico
11:14Open, which is another good comp course
11:16for what we're going to have this week.
11:17It's got the pass poll. It is a
11:19driverheavy sort of track, too. And Carl
11:21Phillips has been way underrated for his
11:23last part of the year. And the reason I
11:25say that is that his approach play has
11:26been some of the best stuff that you've
11:28seen in the field over the last 24
11:29rounds. He's getting 1.21 shots gained
11:32approach per round. The last 12 measured
11:33rounds, if we zoom in on that, you can
11:35see that it holds up. Still gaining on
11:37approach. Also gaining with that shots
11:39gained off the tee, he's an extremely
11:41long player. And because of that success
11:43at the Puerto Rico Open, another passpum
11:45kind of golf course. I think that this
11:47kind of Vdanta Varta track down in
11:49Mexico could feel that same kind of way
11:51for him and there's no chance that
11:53anyone's going to play Carl Phillips
11:54this week. I mean, he's sitting there at
11:56number 17 in my total model ranking. But
11:58if you look at the recent form ranking,
12:00just his shots gained per round. He's
12:02losing strokes to the field. He's number
12:0376 in that category. And there's one
12:05thing we know about people that play
12:07PJDFS. They love using the guys that are
12:09in form and they avoid guys that are out
12:11of form like the play. Again, when
12:13somebody is losing strokes to the field,
12:15all the projection sites out there are
12:17going to condemn Carl Phillips
12:18[clears throat] to obscurity. They're
12:19not even going to let their members use
12:20him because they're going to project
12:22them so low. But if you take a longer
12:24term approach like I do for a lot of my
12:26plays, especially my course fit plays in
12:27the 6K range, you'll find that Carl
12:29Phillips is actually one of the best
12:31projecting plays that we have in this
12:32range. So, I'm going to take advantage
12:34of that at hopefully low ownership as a
12:36good comp course play, long off the tea,
12:38good long iron player as well and should
12:41be at sub3% ownership in most contests.
12:44And now on the betting side where I'm
12:45going with a single bullet for this
12:47week, at least for right now. It's going
12:48to be Windam Clark on Kawashi who I got
12:50at 13.88 to1. And I frankly think that
12:53he's by far the best player in this
12:54field. I model him at about 8 1/2 to one
12:56to win this golf tournament. So, they're
12:58getting close to 14 to1 on the
13:00prediction markets was just too good to
13:01pass up. And let's go over the reasons
13:03again if you didn't catch out the DFS
13:05section. Is it a perfect course fit?
13:06He's got the kind of driving distance
13:07that we want at Bontto Viarta with the
13:09kind of soft conditions expected with
13:11the rain today and yesterday. It's going
13:13to play even longer than normal. So
13:15that's an advantage for Windom. He's the
13:16number one birdie or better percentage
13:18player on tour. That's one of my key
13:19stats I'm looking for. Especially this
13:21year with them shortening the track,
13:23making it even easier and with the fact
13:25that it's softer than you've seen the
13:26last few seasons. I want guys that can
13:28actually get to minus 25 to minus 30.
13:30and he's one of the few players that,
13:32you know, we have no doubts about that
13:33whatsoever. He's a good long iron
13:35player. His shots gained approach is
13:36number one in the field over the last 24
13:38rounds. He's gaining like 1.4 shots
13:40gained approach per rounds. He's from
13:42Scottsdale. For whatever reason, guys
13:43from Scottsdale have had a ton of
13:45success at this golf course. You know,
13:47it's not a desert style golf course, but
13:49it kind of has that look to it in some
13:51spots. So maybe that's why some of those
13:52guys have found success. But he's got
13:54that Jake Knap archetype that when Jake
13:56Knap found so much success here, he was
13:58long off the tea. He was a good putter
13:59on pass poll. He made a bunch of
14:01birdies. And that's exactly what Windham
14:03Clark does. The kicker is that Jake Knap
14:05was new to tour. He wasn't a stud,
14:07right? He went out there and trounced
14:08the field. Windham Clark has won three
14:10times out of his last 12 starts on tour.
14:12And now he gets a perfect course fit, a
14:14cupcake field. I mean, there's no one
14:16else in this field that scares me
14:17whatsoever from the outright angle. I
14:20absolutely love him there at that nearly
14:2114 to1 number. So, I may add some longer
14:24shots by the end of the week. We'll see
14:25what happens with my outright card, but
14:27for now, he's the one priority that I've
14:29got on my card for now. I allocated some
14:31extra units because it is a shorter odds
14:33sort of outright than I'm used to
14:35taking. But every once in a while, these
14:36fall series events, you get a stud that
14:38is worthy playing at that sort of
14:40number. And I think that's what we've
14:41got right here. But if you guys want the
14:43rest of the bets that I'm taking, maybe
14:44some made cut bets, top 10, top 20s,
14:46etc. Check out the golf prop and betting
14:48tier for that. I also have underdog and
14:50prize picks completely covered there as
14:52well. Hard Rock Bet, also Poly Market
14:54bets posted from time to time. So, make
14:56sure to check that out if you guys
14:57haven't already. All righty, guys.
14:58That's all I've got for the betting and
14:59DFS breakdown this week. Go ahead, smash
15:01that like button if you haven't already.
15:03Also, go ahead and subscribe to the
15:04channel so you guys don't miss any of
15:05the content to come. That will include
15:06our Wednesday live stream at 7:00 p.m.
15:08Eastern going through the weather. We'll
15:10talk ownership, also any questions or
15:12deep dives that you've got in the chat
15:13and the underdog and price fix boards
15:15for round number one. So, we'll have
15:16that. Also, live streams for rounds two
15:18through four. They cover showdown and
15:20the prop and betting boards throughout
15:21the rest of the event. So, subscribe so
15:23you guys get notified when all of that
15:24goes live. And best of luck with
15:26everything that you're going with. I
15:27hope to see some of your names towards
15:29the top end of the GBPs. Let's cash out
15:30on some of our bidding exposure, too.
15:32And oh, by the way, for a chance to earn
15:34a free month on my Patreon page, just go
15:35ahead and give me the winner of this
15:37event first. And if you do end up
15:39getting that correct winner first, you
15:40want a free month access to everything
15:42on my Patreon. So, all players will be
15:44eligible for that, including Windam
15:46Clark if you want to be the person to
15:47take him, who I would recommend taking
15:49first. Go ahead, snag him before anyone
15:51else ends up doing so. But, let me know
15:53your thoughts. Let me know who you guys
15:54are wagering on for this week for that
15:56giveaway. Best luck with everything like
15:58I was saying there before and I'll see
15:59you guys for that live stream tomorrow
16:01at 7
16:04>> [music]

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