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【衝撃】2026年は利確の年？当たりすぎる投資サイクルが示す株式市場の衝撃的な未来 — Transcript

by イケガミ投資塾【メガバンク出身】 · 4,720 words · 697 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Hello, everyone. I’m Ikegami. Lately,
0:02with fluctuating interest rates and
0:04statements from President Trump, the
0:06Nikkei and U.S. stock prices have been
0:08going up and down. Honestly, in this
0:11state, I’m sure some of you are
0:13feeling uneasy, wondering if you should
0:15be buying or selling stocks, or if
0:17it’s really okay to keep stacking the
0:20S&P 500 or All Country funds. Actually,
0:22today I’d like to introduce a rather
0:24mysterious sheet of paper that might
0:26give you a hint to clear up that unease
0:28. If you think this sounds suspicious,
0:30to be honest, I thought so too at first
0:32. But this isn't fortune-telling or an
0:35urban legend; it’s a legitimate
0:38market analysis chart created by
0:40someone in the U.S. about 150 years ago
0:42, in 1875. This was in an era without
0:45phones or television. It is called the
0:47Benner Cycle. This chart is famously
0:51considered "frighteningly accurate"
0:53overseas for having predicted major
0:56turning points like the 1929 Great
0:58Depression, the 2000 dot-com bubble
1:00burst, and the 2008 Lehman Shock.
1:03However, it is not very well known in
1:05Japan. I actually verified it against
1:08the charts of the past 100 years, and
1:10it matched the major turning points
1:11with a high degree of precision. Here
1:14is where it gets problematic. The year
1:16this Benner Cycle indicates we should
1:18lock in our profits next is 2026—in
1:21other words, this coming year. Of
1:23course, a scrap of paper from 150 years
1:25ago doesn't guarantee the future.
1:27However, I believe that knowing about
1:29this perspective will significantly
1:31change how you approach your assets
1:32from here on out. So, this time, I will
1:35look at how accurately the 150-year-old
1:37Benner Cycle has predicted past market
1:39crashes. I’ll explain the
1:41verification results, the outlook for
1:432026 and beyond as indicated by this
1:46cycle, my own unique insights from over
1:4830 years in the financial world, and
1:50the specific actions we as investors
1:52should take now. Once again, I am
1:55Ikegami. I have been on the front lines
1:58of the investment banking sector for
2:00over 30 years. On this channel, I share
2:03information to help with your
2:05investments based on that experience,
2:07so please be sure to subscribe. I’m
2:10starting with a story that might send a
2:12chill down your spine: about 150 years
2:15ago, back in 1875—an era in Japan
2:17when topknots had only just been cut
2:19off—a single chart created in America
2:21predicted the Great Depression, the oil
2:24shocks, the IT bubble burst, and the
2:26Lehman Shock with almost pinpoint
2:28accuracy. And the year this chart
2:31points to as the next time to let go is
2:33none other than 2026, the very year we
2:36are currently standing in. We are at a
2:39truly critical juncture right now. Have
2:42any of you heard of the Benner Cycle?
2:44It’s a fairly well-known chart
2:46overseas, but as far as I know, no one
2:48in the Japanese media has ever
2:50addressed it head-on. That is exactly
2:52why I wanted to make this video; I
2:54really need the viewers of this channel
2:56to be aware of it. Before we proceed,
2:58let’s briefly organize what the
3:00Benner Cycle—the topic of this video
3:02—is. In short, the Benner Cycle is a
3:04schedule that assumes there is a fixed
3:06rhythm to the market and lists the
3:08years when stock price peaks and
3:10bottoms will arrive in advance. Think
3:13of it like a chart that plots the tides
3:15. If you go fishing, it’s that table
3:18that tells you exactly when high tide
3:19will be on a given day without you ever
3:21having to look at the sea. It’s like
3:23someone went ahead and created that
3:25kind of table for the sea of the stock
3:27market. From an investor's perspective,
3:29this isn't something that tells you
3:31whether to buy or sell, but rather a
3:33map that shows you whether the tide is
3:35currently coming in or going out.
3:37Having this map or not makes a world of
3:39difference in how calmly you can handle
3:41a rough day. This is especially
3:42important for those of us living in
3:44Japan, where, since the start of the
3:45New NISA, a sentiment has firmly taken
3:47hold that you’ll be fine as long as
3:49you just keep investing in index funds
3:51like the S&P 500 or All Country.
3:52Meanwhile, wages aren’t rising, but
3:54electricity and gasoline prices are
3:56going up. Even the cost of our daily
3:58lunch is slowly and steadily creeping
4:00higher. Under these circumstances, I
4:01believe many of you have come to see
4:03your S&P 500 or All Country savings as
4:05the only real hope for your household
4:07finances. That is precisely why this
4:09vital 150-year-old chart points to the
4:11end of 2026 as a time when it might be
4:14wise to lock in profits. I believe this
4:16fact is extremely important and
4:18something every investor absolutely
4:20must keep in mind. Whether or not you
4:22believe it is up to you, but it would
4:24be a real shame to simply leave it
4:26ignored. First, let's start with the
4:28story of the person who created this
4:30prophecy. Now, let's get to the main
4:32topic. About 150 years ago, in 1875, a
4:36man named Samuel Benner published a
4:39book. The title was Benner's Prophecies
4:42: Future Ups and Downs in Prices.
4:45Introduced within that book was the
4:47chart I am showing you now, which is
4:49known as the Benner Cycle. The Benner
4:51Cycle is a very simple theory that
4:53predicts price peaks and bottoms based
4:56on market cycles. What’s interesting
4:58is this man's background. Mr. Benner
5:02once lived a wealthy life, but he lost
5:04all of his fortune in the Panic of 1873
5:07. So, he set out to determine the cause
5:11of why the markets move the way they do
5:13. After endlessly researching price
5:17movements, he realized there was a
5:19major cycle at play. The Benner Cycle
5:22was created based on that very cycle.
5:24In other words, this theory wasn't born
5:26from academic study, but is a record
5:28made by a man who lost everything to
5:30ensure he would never suffer the same
5:32fate again. I had a similar experience
5:34during my time as a banker. The senior
5:36colleagues with the sharpest market
5:38intuition were usually those who had
5:40suffered a major loss in the past.
5:42Those who climbed the ladder unscathed
5:44were often less sensitive to the smell
5:45of risk, which I think is a bit of a
5:47truth in the world of finance. Now, I
5:49will concisely explain the key points
5:51of the Benner Cycle that I really want
5:53you to hear. First, I should mention
5:56that the years written on the Benner
5:58Cycle chart indicate the end of the
6:00year, not the beginning. This may seem
6:02minor, but it is important. If you
6:04misread this, you will be off by a full
6:06year, so it is truly crucial. First, a
6:08new cycle begins. If you look at the
6:12chart, you can see a new cycle begins
6:15after 1924, peaking at the end of 1927.
6:19Next, it heads toward the cycle bottom.
6:22From the end of 1927 to the end of 1931
6:25, it moves toward that low point. After
6:28that, an intermediate cycle begins. The
6:31intermediate cycle starts at the end of
6:341931, peaking at the end of 1935. Then
6:38it heads toward the intermediate cycle
6:40bottom by the end of 1942. Then a new
6:43cycle begins again, and the pattern
6:45repeats itself. Since the term "
6:48intermediate cycle" came up, let me
6:50break that down. In short, an
6:53intermediate cycle is a smaller wave
6:55that occurs between two major waves.
6:58Think of it like spring and autumn
7:00occurring between midsummer and
7:01midwinter. It's not as hot as midsummer
7:03, but the temperature is certainly
7:05rising. It is a moderate uptrend of
7:07that nature. For investors, while not
7:10the main market event, it is a period
7:12that is well worth riding. It may be
7:15understated, but ignoring it will cost
7:17you. Also, you see "A,""B," and "C"
7:20written on the left side of the chart.
7:23These are the three actual phases of
7:25the Benner Cycle. According to Benner,
7:28"A" means the market is in a panic.
7:31Prices fluctuate repeatedly, and the
7:34panic accelerates. On the chart, this
7:37means the market is in a panic from the
7:40end of 1927 to the end of 1931. During
7:43this time, prices are said to be
7:45extremely volatile. Next, "B" is said
7:47to be a good time to sell assets and
7:50lock in profits. Since prices are
7:52reaching a peak, it is the appropriate
7:54time to take profits. On the chart, for
7:57example, it might be a good time to
7:59take profits at the end of 1935. And "C
8:03" is when the market is stagnant;
8:05it’s ideal to buy cheap assets and
8:07hold them until the next bull market.
8:10In short, it’s a good time to buy.
8:13It's getting a bit complicated, so let
8:15me summarize. The years following "A"
8:18are a zone that requires caution. "B"
8:20is a chance to take your profits. And
8:23the years following "C" are for "buy
8:25and hold," also known as holding
8:27long-term. It's something like this. By
8:29the way, I'll also explain the term "
8:31hodl" for the sake of example. It
8:33simply means to buy something and hold
8:35onto it without doing anything
8:36unnecessary. From an investor's
8:38perspective, the courage to
8:39intentionally choose to do nothing is
8:41the source of returns in this phase.
8:43This concludes the theoretical section.
8:45There is no shortage of theories out
8:47there in the world. The question is
8:49whether or not they are actually
8:50accurate. The next part is what I want
8:53you to hear most in this video. For
8:54Japanese investors, the US market is
8:57not someone else's business. If the US
8:59S&P 500 drops, the Nikkei average falls
9:02too, and your NISA account balances
9:04might turn red. Since overseas
9:06investors now account for about 70%of
9:09the Japanese market, the US market,
9:11such as the S&P 500, and the Nikkei
9:13stock prices show similar movements.
9:15Therefore, checking the answers for the
9:17last 100 years of American history is
9:19directly tied to the assets of Japanese
9:21investors. Looking at the reputation of
9:23the Benner Cycle overseas, there are
9:25many saying that it is scary how
9:27accurate it is. So, I decided to verify
9:30it by comparing it with actual charts.
9:33To give you the conclusion, there were
9:35some occasional mistakes. However, it
9:38was surprisingly accurate in predicting
9:40major events and critical turning
9:42points in the stock market. Since we're
9:46at it, I would like to share this with
9:48you all. After verifying only the major
9:51events of the past 100 years that
9:53everyone has heard of, I want to
9:54consider what the Benner Cycle suggests
9:57for the future. So first, let's check
9:59the accuracy of the Benner Cycle
10:01starting with the Great Depression.
10:04During the Great Depression, a massive
10:07crash occurred in 1929, and the S&P 500
10:10plummeted by over 80%. This remains the
10:14largest decline in S&P 500 history.
10:17That record has still not been broken.
10:19Let's apply the Benner Cycle here. The
10:22Benner Cycle indicates that a new cycle
10:25began at the end of 1920, and it
10:27suggests holding assets until the end
10:29of 1927. Looking at the actual chart,
10:32during this period from 1924 to 1927,
10:35the S&P 500 price rose by about 40%.
10:38This means that holding your position
10:40according to the Benner Cycle would
10:41have been the right move. Furthermore,
10:43the Benner Cycle indicates that the
10:45market was in a state of panic from the
10:48end of 1927 to the end of 1931. In
10:50reality, the Great Depression triggered
10:53a massive crash in 1929, and the bottom
10:56was hit in 1932. Although there is a
10:58discrepancy of a few months to a year,
11:00the prediction that a panic would occur
11:02was spot on. Moreover, the Benner Cycle
11:04shows a new intermediate cycle until
11:07the end of 1935 and a decline toward
11:09the cycle bottom by the end of 1942,
11:12which also aligns almost perfectly when
11:14plotted on a chart. At this point, you
11:16have to wonder if the Benner Cycle is
11:18actually something incredible. This was
11:20predicted back in 1875, and with clear
11:23records remaining from that time, it is
11:25truly terrifying. Next, let's look at
11:28the IT bubble burst in 2000. The IT
11:30bubble burst in 2000, causing the S&P
11:33500 stock price to plummet by about 26%
11:36. Incidentally, the Nasdaq 100
11:38experienced an even greater crash of
11:40over 80%. The Benner Cycle indicates
11:43that a new cycle began at the end of
11:451996, suggesting it was better to hold
11:47assets, with the cycle ending at the
11:50end of 1999. In fact, during this
11:52period, the S&P 500 surged due to the
11:55internet revolution, with stock prices
11:57rising by 95%. The Benner Cycle also
12:00states that the market was in a panic
12:03from the end of 1999 to the end of 2005
12:05, and that the end of 1999 was the
12:08right time to take profits. And
12:10although it was off by a year, the
12:12massive crash did indeed occur the
12:14following year, in 2000, just as
12:15predicted. It really hit the mark
12:17perfectly. Next is the Lehman Shock.
12:20The Lehman Shock was a major crash that
12:22occurred just as stock prices were
12:24rising steadily after the IT bubble
12:26burst and were about to hit record
12:28highs, with the S&P 500 dropping 55%.
12:30Looking at the Benner Cycle, it
12:32indicates a new intermediate cycle from
12:35the end of 2005 to the end of 2007, and
12:37when plotted on a chart, the S&P rose
12:39by over 20%with momentum to break its
12:41all-time high. The Benner Cycle
12:44indicated that the end of 2007 was the
12:46ideal time to take profits, and as
12:49predicted, the S&P 500 began to crash
12:52as soon as 2008 started. This also hit
12:55the mark almost perfectly. The Great
12:57Depression, the dot-com bubble burst,
12:59and the Lehman Shock—it successfully
13:02predicted every single peak and trough
13:04on paper 150 years ago. When it gets
13:06this accurate, it’s honestly a little
13:08unsettling. But here is the problem:
13:11the most recent cycle is actually
13:13looking a bit strange. This is the main
13:16point. On September 15, 2008, the major
13:19US investment bank Lehman Brothers
13:21filed for bankruptcy with about 600
13:23billion dollars in debt. This is what
13:25we call the Lehman Shock. However,
13:27following the shock, the US economy
13:29entered a long-term bull market due to
13:31declining interest rates and
13:32quantitative easing. You hear the term
13:35"quantitative easing" in the news all
13:37the time, but I'll break it down just
13:39in case. In short, quantitative easing
13:41is a policy where a central bank buys
13:43assets from the market to flood the
13:45economy with cash. Think of it like
13:48opening a water tap wide open to force
13:50the city's waterways to overflow. Since
13:54there is excess money, people spend a
13:56bit wastefully, and some of that waste
13:58flows into the stock market. From an
14:00investor's perspective, quantitative
14:02easing is a force that pushes stock
14:03prices up regardless of actual business
14:05performance. That’s why those who
14:07looked only at company fundamentals
14:08missed the boat during this era. This
14:10part is very important. The Benner
14:13Cycle predicted a new seven-year cycle
14:15from the end of 2012 to the end of 2019
14:18, during which the S&P 500 rose by a
14:21staggering 123%. To have a seven-year
14:24bull market predicted so accurately is,
14:26to put it mildly, terrifying. It also
14:28predicted the market would fall into a
14:30panic from the end of 2019 to the end
14:33of 2023. Indeed, the S&P 500
14:35experienced the COVID shock in 2020.
14:38Investors did panic several times as
14:40predicted, but since the stock price
14:43itself rose, the results for this
14:44period cannot be called a perfect hit.
14:47The fact that the Benner Cycle failed
14:49to predict this is a crucial point to
14:51note, but the abnormal scale of
14:53monetary easing during the COVID-19
14:55pandemic ended the recession unusually
14:57quickly. After all, central banks not
14:59only in the U.S. but around the world
15:01were flooding the markets with money.
15:04I’m not taking Benner’s side, but
15:06when the cycle was created,
15:08quantitative easing didn’t exist, so
15:10I think we should forgive some
15:11deviation from the predictions. It’s
15:14as if they poured seawater into a chart
15:17created 150 years ago using a massive
15:19pump. It’s only natural that the
15:21timing of the tides would be thrown off
15:23. If things follow the Benner Cycle,
15:26the panic-inducing cycle will be
15:28followed by a new intermediate cycle
15:30from the end of 2023 through the end of
15:332026. And what I’m about to say next
15:37is even more chilling: the Benner Cycle
15:39indicates that the end of 2026, which
15:41is just around the corner, is the ideal
15:44time to lock in profits. Then, from the
15:47end of 2026 to the end of 2032, an
15:50intermediate cycle will head toward the
15:52bottom. The cycle then completes a full
15:55rotation, and a new cycle will begin
15:58from the end of 2032 to the end of 2035
16:00. I, Ikegami, have explained in other
16:03videos that a bubble burst is possible
16:06after 2027 based on factors like the
16:08resolution of the yield curve inversion
16:11, and it makes me sweat to see it align
16:13with my own analysis. And there is one
16:16more interesting point to note. It is
16:18the fact that it predicted the start of
16:20a new cycle quite accurately. The
16:22Benner Cycle shows the next new cycle
16:25beginning around the end of 2032. Since
16:28the intermediate cycle began after 2023
16:31ended, according to the Benner Cycle,
16:33holding is recommended from then until
16:36the end of 2026. In other words, this
16:38aligns with my view, which I’ve
16:40argued in other videos, that in U.S.
16:42midterm election years, you should hold
16:44until the end of the year. Although,
16:47it’s not so much a famous anomaly as
16:49it is a historical fact that midterm
16:51election years go until the end of the
16:53year. Of course, there is no guarantee
16:55that things will go well just by
16:57following the Benner Cycle. But it is
16:59clearly more accurate than
17:00Nostradamus’s prophecies, at the very
17:02least. That concludes the verification.
17:05So, how should we use this as investors
17:07? This is the real conclusion. I will
17:11now explain something especially
17:12crucial for those of us living in Japan
17:14. Because for an investor, knowing when
17:17to exit is a truly heavy decision to
17:19make. With that, let me state the
17:21conclusion of this video clearly. If
17:23you follow the Benner Cycle, 2026 is
17:25the year to lock in your profits. And
17:28from 2032 to 2035, it will be time to
17:31hold onto your assets once again. The
17:34reason is simple, as we have seen so
17:36far. The "B" in the Benner Cycle—the
17:39point suitable for taking profits—is
17:41placed at the end of 2026, and the
17:43period from late 2026 to late 2032 is
17:46considered the interval leading toward
17:48that transition. And the period from
17:51late 2032 to late 2035 is considered
17:53the start of a new cycle, meaning the
17:56beginning of a bull market. And the
17:58start of this new cycle has been
18:00accurate every single time in the past.
18:03This is the most important part. In
18:06other words, 2026 is the year you
18:08should seriously consider cashing out
18:11your profits. From 2027 to 2032, it’s
18:15a time to endure a long slump while
18:17calmly continuing to pick up assets
18:19that have become cheap. Then, from 2032
18:22to 2035, it’s a year to do nothing
18:25extra and just hold on. Of course,
18:27there are risks. A piece of paper from
18:29150 years ago cannot guarantee the
18:31future, but whether or not you are
18:33conscious of where we are in the cycle
18:35completely changes how you act when a
18:37crash occurs. It was the same when I
18:39was working in the investment banking
18:40division. For example, the stock market
18:43rise known as "Abenomics" lasted from
18:46November 2012 to around August 2020;
18:49when the Abe administration began in
18:51November 2012, the Nikkei 225 was
18:54around 9,000 yen. And incredibly, by
18:56the time Prime Minister Abe resigned in
18:59August 2020, the Nikkei 225 had risen
19:01to about 23,000 yen. Since the period
19:04before that was a slump in stock prices
19:06following the Heisei bubble, it was
19:07truly a miraculous era. Back then, I
19:09was working in investment banking
19:11facing the markets, and thanks to
19:13Abenomics 'bold monetary easing and a
19:15weak yen, not just me, but almost all
19:17my institutional investor colleagues
19:19were in a long position—betting on
19:21rising stock prices. In the dealing
19:23room, Nikkei 225 futures and charts
19:25lined the monitors, and traders were
19:27placing buy orders one after another,
19:29coffee in hand. Even when the Nikkei
19:31average plunged by over 1,000 yen in a
19:33single day—which would normally be
19:35disappointing—my colleagues and I
19:37weren't pessimistic at all; voices rang
19:39out across the room calling it a
19:41perfect buying opportunity. In fact,
19:43even funds with hundreds of billions of
19:45yen in assets were aggressively buying,
19:47and the bank’s dealing profits were
19:49hitting record highs. In short, what
19:51the pros were looking at wasn't the
19:53reason for the crash, but rather where
19:55we were in the market cycle. If the
19:57upward cycle continues, a drop is a
19:59buying opportunity, but once Abenomics
20:01ended, we had to shift to a defensive
20:04investment strategy. In other words,
20:06simply being aware of where we are in
20:08the cycle changes how you act during a
20:10crash entirely. Where are we in the
20:12wave right now? The Benner Cycle is a
20:14very rare tool that has been providing
20:16that sense of position for 150 years.
20:19Finally, there is one thing I really
20:21want to convey to you. If you look at
20:23Japanese and U.S. stocks over the very
20:25long term, they trend upward. That
20:27isn't wrong, but in reality, they
20:29repeat cycles of long-term bull markets
20:31and long-term stagnation. Setting aside
20:34whether the Benner Cycle is accurate or
20:36not, various cycles exist in the world.
20:38There are business cycles, and there
20:40are interest rate cycles as well.
20:42Looking at history, we repeat eras of
20:44stagnation and eras of prosperity
20:46roughly every 60 years. Therefore, even
20:49if your assets grow over the long term,
20:51you will sometimes face long periods of
20:54stagnation; it is not as simple as
20:56assets just growing steadily upward.
20:58And you should keep in mind that it is
21:00perfectly natural to encounter market
21:02conditions that stagnate for several
21:04years due to these cycles. Just by
21:06doing that, I believe you can avoid
21:07having unrealistic expectations and
21:09gain the resolve to face the market
21:11over the long term. I have one final
21:13thing I really want to share with you.
21:15I believe the reason the Benner Cycle
21:17works is not because it is a correct
21:19prophecy, but because humans and the
21:21economy repeat the same rhythm. There
21:24are two main reasons for this: first,
21:26capital investment and inventory
21:28accumulation take physical time, so the
21:31cycles between booms and busts tend to
21:33have a certain interval. And second, it
21:36is human psychology that moves the
21:38market, and the cycle of bull and bear
21:40markets has not changed in 150 years.
21:43Mr. Benner lost his entire fortune in
21:46the panic of 1873, and from there, he
21:48studied price cycles diligently. In
21:51other words, what he discovered was not
21:53the future, but the fact that human
21:55nature cannot change. The Benner Cycle,
21:57which saw through such human psychology
22:00, has been hitting market tops and
22:02bottoms for 150 years, and it
22:03designates 2026 as a year for taking
22:06profits. And it identifies 2032 to 2035
22:09as years to hold on once again. The end
22:13of 2026 is approaching; will you be
22:15staring at those numbers while holding
22:18onto unrealized losses? Or will you
22:20have cashed out and be preparing for
22:22the next setup? The roadmap left behind
22:25by a man who went bankrupt 150 years
22:27ago clearly shows us the direction we
22:30should take now. Whether you believe it
22:33or not is up to you. Now, this will be
22:36a bit of a digression, but I’d like
22:38to share some of my past "dark history"
22:40that might also be useful for your
22:42investments, so please listen. It was
22:45just after I joined the bank and was
22:47assigned to the investment banking
22:48division. When you join a financial
22:50institution in a general career track,
22:52you can express your preferred
22:53department, but where you end up is, in
22:55a sense, luck. Luckily for me, I was
22:57assigned to the investment banking
22:59department as I had hoped, which really
23:01lit a fire under me; I was so fired up,
23:04determined to become a professional who
23:06could read the markets. And what did I
23:08do? I studied technical analysis. In a
23:12nutshell, technical analysis is about
23:14reading the next price movement from
23:16the shape of the charts, isn't it? I
23:18did this thoroughly. I bought so many
23:21books and read through them voraciously
23:23. At my peak, there were days I was
23:25reading a book a day. And I spent all
23:28my time drawing lines on charts. Things
23:30like resistance lines above and trend
23:32lines below. I’d print out charts,
23:35use a ruler, and draw all over them;
23:38even now, I wonder why I was so
23:40obsessed. On top of that, I studied
23:43Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and the
23:46Sakata Method. The Sakata Method is a
23:48collection of candlestick patterns
23:50discovered by rice traders in the Edo
23:52period. It’s fascinating that it was
23:54actually developed back in the Edo era,
23:56isn't it? Anyway, I was constantly
23:58doing technical analysis. I’d come
24:00home and spend every waking hour
24:02studying technical analysis and
24:03charting. But it didn't feel like work
24:06at all; it was genuinely fun. Then,
24:08just after I started working as an
24:10institutional investor. A senior
24:12colleague asked for my opinion on a
24:14specific stock. I thought, "This is it.
24:17" I was so confident that the day had
24:20finally come to show off my hard work,
24:22and I answered like this: "This stock
24:24has clearly broken above the resistance
24:26line, the RSI is only at 50 so it's not
24:28overbought, and the MACD suggests a
24:30golden cross, so this is the start of
24:32an uptrend." I don’t recall the exact
24:35details, but I ranted to him like that.
24:37Honestly, I thought it was perfect. But
24:40my senior just looked at me silently
24:42and said this: "I absolutely hate
24:44technical analysis." The moment he said
24:47that, everyone on the floor looked down
24:49and froze. I still remember that moment
24:52vividly. That senior was a die-hard
24:54fundamentalist, you see. He focused on
24:57earnings, finances, management quality,
25:00the economy, exchange rates, and
25:02inflation, and wouldn't acknowledge
25:04technicals at all. I still remember the
25:06walk home from work that day. The chart
25:09drawing that I had enjoyed so much
25:11suddenly felt empty, and from that day
25:13on, my investment philosophy changed.
25:15Well, to be precise, it’s not really
25:17an investment philosophy, but: "Never
25:19go against the trend." And, "Never go
25:21against your senior." That was the
25:22lesson I learned. I’m telling this as
25:24a bit of a joke, but for me, it was a
25:26serious lesson. For better or worse, I
25:29learned then to act as if my seniors
25:31were gods. The result was, thanks to a
25:35lot of luck, that I was able to get
25:37promoted faster than my peers. More
25:40than the Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, or
25:43Sakata’s methods I studied so hard,
25:45the only chart that really helped me
25:47was reading my senior's face. Calling
25:51it a "senior's expression chart" makes
25:53me sound like a sycophant, but I was
25:55actually being more positive,
25:57constantly thinking about how I could
25:59work to be useful to them and how I
26:01could finish my tasks to lighten their
26:03load. I developed the habit of always
26:06thinking and acting that way. Honestly,
26:10this mindset served me well throughout
26:12my banking career, and I owe my
26:14promotions to that senior who yelled at
26:16me. So, in a good way, studying
26:19technical analysis wasn't a waste of
26:21time after all. Thank you very much for
26:24watching until the end. If you found
26:26this video even a little bit helpful,
26:28please hit the like button and
26:29subscribe to the channel. I look
26:32forward to seeing you in the next video
26:34. Thank you.

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This page contains the full transcript of 【衝撃】2026年は利確の年？当たりすぎる投資サイクルが示す株式市場の衝撃的な未来 by イケガミ投資塾【メガバンク出身】, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 4,720 words across 697 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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