2026 Austin Championship Course Preview : Fazio Canyons Course Hole by hole breakdown + Modeling — Transcript

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1. 0:01[music]
2. 0:06Welcome on in golf fans. It's your boy
3. 0:08GSL Luke with our course breakdown for
4. 0:10this week's Austin Championship. We got
5. 0:11ourselves a brand new course. So, we're
6. 0:13going to break down the Fosio's Canyon
7. 0:14course, give you guys the goods for this
8. 0:16week with what to expect from course
9. 0:17conditions. We'll go through a whole
10. 0:19byole breakdown as well as my custom
11. 0:20modeling and key stats that I'm using to
12. 0:22get to my top plays. So, by the end,
13. 0:24you'll be an expert on everything to
14. 0:26expect. So, without further ado, let's
15. 0:27go ahead and hop on in. Given that it's
16. 0:29the first time we're seeing this course,
17. 0:31we don't have the usual data and
18. 0:32analytics to go through, but we are
19. 0:34going to go hole by hole, show you the
20. 0:35shots required, and then what I'm
21. 0:37thinking from the modeling perspective.
22. 0:38So, it's a par 72. It measures 7,451
23. 0:42yards, which has some length to it. And
24. 0:44you'll see that on some of the par 3es,
25. 0:46some of the longer par 4s that are close
26. 0:48to 500 yards where these players are
27. 0:50going to be tested. And the aronomy is
28. 0:51Bermuda from tip to toe. So, that's also
29. 0:53important. And we'll incorporate that
30. 0:55into our modeling later on. But, let's
31. 0:56show you what it looks like hole by
32. 0:58hole. So hole one, one of the easier
33. 1:00holes that you've got out there. It's
34. 1:01403. It plays downhill. It'll be a wedge
35. 1:03shot in an opportunity that those
36. 1:05players have to take advantage of. Hole
37. 1:07two is a dog leg to the right. You do
38. 1:09have a water hazard as well. If you
39. 1:11choose to take on a driver could come
40. 1:12into play, but less than driver is going
41. 1:14to be the avenue off the tea for most
42. 1:16players. And then attacking with a nine
43. 1:18iron, probably a wedge in for most guys.
44. 1:20It is an awkwardly shaped green. And I
45. 1:22do think the around the green penalty is
46. 1:24going to be there, especially if you
47. 1:25shortside yourself into a tucked pin
48. 1:28location. Hole three is your first par
49. 1:30three. This one is the shortest of the
50. 1:31bunch at 170 yards. You can't fall
51. 1:33asleep on it though, as it's not a wedge
52. 1:35in, and if it is a windy day, it is a
53. 1:38bit exposed from the left, so I think
54. 1:40that could be a problem for players.
55. 1:41Hole four is a potentially drivable
56. 1:43par4. If they move up the T- box, it'll
57. 1:45be drivable for the whole field. does
58. 1:47play slightly downhill. So, the front is
59. 1:49really closer to 305, maybe 310 yards in
60. 1:53terms of adjusted yardage. Your power
61. 1:55players might choose to take that on
62. 1:56even if they don't move up that tee.
63. 1:58Hole five is 597. This is a hole where
64. 2:01being a power player is going to be an
65. 2:03advantage if you want any chance at
66. 2:04getting home in two. You're going to
67. 2:06have to be somebody that can carry it
68. 2:07300 plus yards. So, your shorter guys
69. 2:10likely playing this as a three shter.
70. 2:11Hole six is 448. This is a mid-length
71. 2:14par4 for the golf course and also does
72. 2:16play a little bit uphill. So maybe
73. 2:18closer to 465 in reality. Hole 7 is 590.
74. 2:22Another nearly 600yard par five. One
75. 2:25where you have to be a power player to
76. 2:27reach it into. Although if you are a
77. 2:29shorter player because it plays downhill
78. 2:31for the T-OT, you're going to at least
79. 2:33be able to get it near the green
80. 2:34complex. Maybe not on the green as it is
81. 2:36extremely narrow and probably hard to
82. 2:38hold with a 3-wood. Hole number eight is
83. 2:41208 yards. It is your second par three
84. 2:44and a little bit more lengthy than the
85. 2:45first one was. I would say this front
86. 2:47left little quadrant looks awkward and
87. 2:49is probably the hardest pin location
88. 2:51that they can use. Hole number nine is
89. 2:53481. One of the hardest holes on the
90. 2:55entire golf course. It's not only 481,
91. 2:58but it also plays severely uphill. So,
92. 3:00probably closer to 510, 520 yards in
93. 3:04reality. Hole number 10's 490. It does
94. 3:06play down the hill, which is helpful,
95. 3:08but it's still almost 500 yards as a
96. 3:10par4. So this is one where he would be
97. 3:12happy to make par on all four rounds and
98. 3:15then run out of there. Hole 11 is 231.
99. 3:17Another brute. It does play slightly
100. 3:19downhill, but anytime you have a 220
101. 3:22plus yard par three, that's likely going
102. 3:24to play well over par. And I would say a
103. 3:26middle right pin location is probably
104. 3:28the easiest. But back left and even a
105. 3:30front pin because of that drop off is
106. 3:32probably pretty tricky. 12 is 415. So 12
107. 3:35and 13 are going to be birdie looks
108. 3:37after you had some real brute of holes
109. 3:39at back to back. Well, even nine was
110. 3:41tough. So, that's like a three-hole
111. 3:42stretch of holes that'll likely play
112. 3:44over par. This one is less than driver
113. 3:46than a wedge. So, you can score there.
114. 3:48On the next hole, it's the same exact
115. 3:49thing. It's only 389 yards. You can hit
116. 3:52less than driver off the T and then
117. 3:54attack with a wedge on the second shot.
118. 3:55So, if you drop a shot, maybe two over
119. 3:58that really tough stretch. Maybe you get
120. 3:59one of those or even both of them back
121. 4:01there. 14 is 565. So, this is a little
122. 4:04bit more reachable than some of the
123. 4:05other parfs on the front. It does play
124. 4:07slightly uphill, so you have to worry
125. 4:09about that when you're coming in, but I
126. 4:11would say most players can get it on or
127. 4:13near the green there. 15 is 462. It does
128. 4:16play downhill. That helps you out. So,
129. 4:18it's not nearly as long as it maybe
130. 4:20looks on paper, but you do need to be
131. 4:22accurate off the tee to get some of that
132. 4:23extra roll out and to really make that
133. 4:25count. If you don't, this water hazard
134. 4:27towards the right could start to come
135. 4:29into play. 16 is 471. This is another
136. 4:32downhill hole, but just like last hole,
137. 4:34if you're not accurate off the tee, you
138. 4:35don't really see the full advantage of
139. 4:37that. And with some of these overhanging
140. 4:39trees, you can see where that missed
141. 4:40fairway penalty really comes into play.
142. 4:42But if you execute a really good T-shot
143. 4:44here, you are going to be left with like
144. 4:46150 yards in in terms of adjusted
145. 4:48yardage, which is going to be rather
146. 4:50scorable for these tour players. 17 is
147. 4:52228. It is a brutal par three to finish
148. 4:55out this golf course. Even plays a
149. 4:57little bit uphill, too, to add insult to
150. 4:59injury. And then finally, 18 is another
151. 5:01reachable par five. This one plays
152. 5:03heavily downhill. So, it's going to play
153. 5:04closer to like 520 yards, which is as
154. 5:07long as some of the other par4s were on
155. 5:09the front. I mean, as terms of adjusted
156. 5:11yardage, it's almost going to be the
157. 5:12same as hole number nine, and it's
158. 5:14playing as a par five as opposed to a
159. 5:16par4. So, you do have that water hazard
160. 5:18in play for the second shot. um which I
161. 5:20guess adds that riskreward component.
162. 5:22But this isn't quite the resort style
163. 5:24venue that we've had over the last
164. 5:25couple weeks where I think you have to
165. 5:27get to minus30 probably closer to -5 to
166. 5:29minus 20 even with the soft conditions
167. 5:31that we're going to see this week. They
168. 5:32are getting rain on Monday expected to
169. 5:34get even more rain on Tuesday but I
170. 5:37still think it's going to be a little
171. 5:38bit tougher. So let's go through my
172. 5:39modeling what I'm personally looking for
173. 5:41in some of my players for this week. And
174. 5:43let's start off with our regular shots
175. 5:44gained metrics. So, here in the very
176. 5:46left end of my modeling, we've got shots
177. 5:48gained off the tea, approach, around the
178. 5:50green, and putting over the last 24
179. 5:52rounds. And anytime we're playing any
180. 5:54course on tour, regardless of whether
181. 5:56it's a brand new golf course or not, you
182. 5:58want to make sure you're looking at the
183. 5:59guys that are playing the best golf
184. 6:00heading in, form is always going to be
185. 6:02helpful. Again, even if it's at
186. 6:04different style golf courses. being a
187. 6:06hot golfer, making a lot of putts is
188. 6:08going to translate to the next week. But
189. 6:10especially when we're at a brand new
190. 6:11golf course like this where we don't
191. 6:13have a perfect read on how the course is
192. 6:15going to play, you want to lean into
193. 6:16that form even more because with those
194. 6:18unknowns, you can lean into the guys
195. 6:20that have that hot hand and find a lot
196. 6:22of success. So, I incorporate that a
197. 6:24little bit more into my modeling because
198. 6:25of that. And I will say that this looks
199. 6:27like a bit of a ball striking test.
200. 6:29It's, you know, kind of tight off the
201. 6:30tea. I think having some distance is
202. 6:31going to be helpful on the par fives.
203. 6:33The approach play, especially with a
204. 6:34softer golf course, is always a way to
205. 6:36help you get close to a minus 20 score.
206. 6:38Don't forget about around the green and
207. 6:40putting, though. Around the green is
208. 6:41going to come into play if it gets windy
209. 6:42at one point. Putting comes into play,
210. 6:44especially with some of the softer
211. 6:46conditions, but off the tea and approach
212. 6:48play maybe a little bit more important
213. 6:49than these right two categories. So, you
214. 6:51can see some of the top approach
215. 6:52players, if we go ahead and sort it by
216. 6:54that, sorry, off the tea first and then
217. 6:55we'll do approach second there. You can
218. 6:57see some of the leaders there are all
219. 6:58going to get a heavy boost in my model
220. 7:00for this event. Next up, we've got
221. 7:02driving accuracy percentage. And I think
222. 7:04with all the treelined fairways, that's
223. 7:06where you're going to see this come into
224. 7:07play. And especially if it is lift,
225. 7:09clean in place early in the week because
226. 7:10of some of the rain that they've gotten,
227. 7:12you're going to want to keep yourself in
228. 7:13play to take advantage of that. So, it's
229. 7:15yet to be seen whether that's going to
230. 7:17be the case or not. But I think even
231. 7:18without lift, clean in place, it's going
232. 7:20to be something I'm using. You've got
233. 7:21Ben Cole's number one in that category.
234. 7:23Alvora Ortiz, Michael Thompson, Joel
235. 7:25Damon, Paul Peterson, too. And a Michael
236. 7:28Thompson is not going to check the ball
237. 7:29striking stats. In fact, I'm surprised
238. 7:31he's even in this sort of field. The guy
239. 7:33won on tour like 5 years ago, then
240. 7:35completely disappeared from the face of
241. 7:37the earth. But a Ben Kohl's on the other
242. 7:39hand, who is gaining in those two ball
243. 7:41striking categories, you can see he's
244. 7:42top 10 in the model because he's
245. 7:44accurate off the tea. He checks those
246. 7:45two boxes and I'm emphasizing that much.
247. 7:47That's how you find yourself into that
248. 7:49top 10. And we can look at Bermuda
249. 7:51putting as well. Those are the type of
250. 7:52greens that we've got at this track. In
251. 7:54fact, you've got Bermuda around the
252. 7:55greens, too. So I think if you want to
253. 7:57look at chipping stats on Bermuda, you
254. 7:59can use that for this event. But some of
255. 8:01the best Bermuda grass putters in the
256. 8:02field include Max Grazeman, Mccardi,
257. 8:04Hayden Springer, Moore Whe as well. And
258. 8:07if you can give me maybe halfdeent
259. 8:09driving accuracy, some good ball
260. 8:10striking stats, those are also guys that
261. 8:12are going to be popping off. So a guy
262. 8:14that kind of fits that would be a
263. 8:15Sheamus power. He's got above average
264. 8:17accuracy. He's been gaining both off the
265. 8:19tea and on approach. And because of that
266. 8:21success on Bermuda Grass, it's not a
267. 8:23surprise that he finds himself in that
268. 8:25number three spot. And in fact, your
269. 8:26number one player in my model for this
270. 8:28week is Blades Brown. Shout out to him.
271. 8:3019 years old, got his first ever tour
272. 8:31win last week. Just uh it's hard to even
273. 8:34conceive that that's possible. So, uh
274. 8:36obviously has insane stuff coming in his
275. 8:38future out here on tour. But number one,
276. 8:40because of those ball striking metrics,
277. 8:42the driving accuracy, and makes a whole
278. 8:44bunch of putts on this Bermuda surface.
279. 8:46So, those are the guys that should be
280. 8:47the absolute nuts. I'm also looking at
281. 8:50approach play from 175 to 200. That's
282. 8:52where all the par 3s come in. Also, some
283. 8:54of the harder par fours, which are holes
284. 8:56that you can leverage quite a bit. Cuz
285. 8:58if you can make a birdie on those holes,
286. 8:59it's over a shot difference to the
287. 9:00field. Even a par over the four rounds,
288. 9:02might add up to a shot over the four
289. 9:04rounds when it's all said and done. I
290. 9:06want guys that can hit greens with some
291. 9:08of those harder iron shots. So, players
292. 9:10that have been better with those sort of
293. 9:11iron shots compared to the rest of their
294. 9:13game. It would be guys like Chris Kirk,
295. 9:15Billy Horchel, Rico Hoey, Doug Gim, and
296. 9:17Trace Crowe. Just another category to
297. 9:19add on top of some of the others. So
298. 9:20then I'm also looking at some of the
299. 9:22shots gained around the green on Bermuda
300. 9:24grass. I mentioned that you can
301. 9:26incorporate that on top of some of the
302. 9:27putting stuff too. You can see some of
303. 9:29the best chippers on Bermuda here
304. 9:31towards the right. That includes Angie
305. 9:32Novak, Putin, Ameiliana Gonzalez, Eric
306. 9:35Cole, also Nick Dunlop. And when we put
307. 9:38together all these different factors
308. 9:39that I've got in my modeling here,
309. 9:41number one's Blades as we said before,
310. 9:43but Doug Gim sitting in that two spot.
311. 9:44There's Sheamus Power. They've got Kirk,
312. 9:46Horschel, Crow, Novak, Quavenven, Ben
313. 9:49Kohl's, and also Jordan Smith rounding
314. 9:52off that top 10. And this is just my
315. 9:54first draft model early on a Monday.
316. 9:56It's a brand new course, so I try to
317. 9:58give myself maybe an extra, you know, 24
318. 10:00hours to dial in my model before I
319. 10:02really really feel good about it. But,
320. 10:04uh, this is definitely a good look at
321. 10:05what I'm going to be doing for this
322. 10:07event. I think the accuracy is going to
323. 10:08matter a little bit more about the ball
324. 10:10striking than the short game stats. And
325. 10:12then we want to cater it towards the
326. 10:13Bermuda grass aronomy and then some log
327. 10:15iron shots that you have on those
328. 10:16leveraged holes. And then for a little
329. 10:18bit of a comp course history, I'm
330. 10:19looking at TBC San Antonio, another
331. 10:21Texas golf course, different part of
332. 10:22Texas, but it's a par 72. It's almost
333. 10:25the same exact length at 7,438
334. 10:28yards. And when I was going through the
335. 10:30overhead views of this golf course, it
336. 10:32looked almost exactly like what you have
337. 10:34at TPC San Antonio. Similar part of the
338. 10:36country, so you would expect that to be
339. 10:38the case. But you've got some river beds
340. 10:40at both golf courses. You've got some
341. 10:42heavy treelined areas at both golf
342. 10:44courses. I think if you didn't tell
343. 10:46somebody that, you know, we had moved
344. 10:48golf courses and you had them thinking
345. 10:50it was TBC San Antonio that they would
346. 10:52probably buy it at least for a hole or
347. 10:54two until they get to somewhere that
348. 10:56they recognize. So, I'm going to be
349. 10:58using that for some of my leaderboard
350. 11:00crossover. And what's great is even
351. 11:01though this is a brand new golf course,
352. 11:03because it is such a similar setup and
353. 11:05we have plenty of data from the Valero
354. 11:07Texas Open, you can use that for some of
355. 11:09your quote unquote um course history. So
356. 11:11they've got some key stats here, some
357. 11:13quote unquote course history you can
358. 11:15incorporate into your analysis as well.
359. 11:16But for everything I'm doing for this
360. 11:18event, make sure to check out all my
361. 11:20analysis on the Patreon page. All
362. 11:21righty, guys. That is all we've got for
363. 11:22this week's course breakdown. Go ahead,
364. 11:24smash that like button if you haven't
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367. 11:28content to come. We're going to have a
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370. 11:33streams throughout the week, getting
371. 11:35ready for main slate on Wednesday at 700
372. 11:36p.m. Eastern. Also, showdown in the prop
373. 11:38and betting boards for rounds two
374. 11:40through four, all here on YouTube for
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377. 11:46best of luck with everything that you're
378. 11:47going with in your process this week.
379. 11:49Whether that's in largefield GPS, I hope
380. 11:50to see you towards the top end of those
381. 11:52GPS with any bets that you're placing.
382. 11:54Let's go ahead and add to the bank roll,
383. 11:55too. And for a chance to earn a free
384. 11:57month of my Patreon page, which is where
385. 11:58you guys can find all of my modeling,
386. 12:00all my projections, also all the bets
387. 12:02that I'm taking on a week like this, you
388. 12:03guys can get that for completely free
389. 12:05just by guessing the correct winning
390. 12:07score of this event first. It'll be on a
391. 12:08first come, first- serve basis. But if
392. 12:10you end up getting that correct winning
393. 12:12score, you'll win a free month access to
394. 12:14everything I've got on the Patreon. So,
395. 12:16it'll help me boost up the algorithm,
396. 12:17get this out there to even more people,
397. 12:19and help them out there with their
398. 12:20process. So, I appreciate you for that,
399. 12:22and also enter you into that free
400. 12:23giveaway at the same time. So, win-win.
401. 12:26Go ahead, claim your score before anyone
402. 12:27else ends up stealing that from you.
403. 12:29Best luck with that, with any of your
404. 12:31exposure, as I was saying, and I see you
405. 12:32guys for some of the rest of the content
406. 12:34throughout the week.
407. 12:36[music]
408. 12:41>> [music]