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2026年9月25日　世界はお金を奪い合う（金利高）　幻想を捨てろ！【朝倉慶の株式投資・株式相場解説】 — Transcript

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0:02Understand the market today. Asakura Ke
0:05Channel.
0:07Hello, everyone. I’m Ke Asakura. We
0:09will now begin the final Asakura Ke
0:12broadcast for September, September 25th
0:14. It’s been rising, hasn't it? It has
0:18become a nice uptrend. The Nikkei Stock
0:20Average. Today, it was up 400 yen at
0:23one point, and is now close to 300 yen.
0:27It's gradually heading toward new highs
0:29, and September, which was challenging,
0:31is almost over. It’s starting to feel
0:37like we are finally heading toward the
0:39year-end highs. I will talk about this
0:43in detail today. Well, in any case, the
0:47surprising thing is the movement of
0:49these interest rates, this right here.
0:54This is the intense one. Look at this.
0:58It’s hit 3.1%. This is the long-term
1:01interest rate. Japan's long-term
1:02interest rate. It’s rising steadily.
1:04I’ve been saying it. Stocks, yen
1:07depreciation, and interest rates. They
1:10won't stop. They won't stop. They won't
1:13stop. They say even this won't stop it.
1:16They say it’ll keep going. It’s
1:18going to keep going. It won’t stop.
1:21It’s also a global trend, you see.
1:24Well, I will explain it thoroughly
1:26today, but this is also happening. Look
1:29at this. Just look at it. After all, it
1:36reached 159 yen. The yen's depreciation
1:39won't stop either. The current trend is
1:42that if you leave it alone, it just
1:44keeps going this way. And it’s
1:49happening amidst a world that is moving
1:51in that direction. It's not just a
1:55problem for Japan; interest rates are
1:57rising uncontrollably around the world
2:00as well. Yesterday, the U.S. long-term
2:03interest rate hit 5.21%. And the 30-
2:09year Treasury bond reached 5.4%, so the
2:12rise in interest rates just won't stop.
2:17Therefore, it’s not just that, it's
2:20the same for Germany. Oh, Germany's
2:24long-term interest rates are also
2:26rising steadily, and they aren't
2:28stopping either. Of course, the same
2:33applies to France, but seeing
2:35Germany’s long-term interest rate
2:37reach 3.6%, I can’t help but think
2:39it’s come this far; it really is a
2:42global trend. I’d like to take the
2:45time today to explain the background
2:47behind all of this. Well, we managed to
2:52get through the rate hike this time,
2:54but while there were calls to avoid it,
2:56not hiking would have been a disaster.
3:00You see, even after raising rates, the
3:02yields just kept climbing, and the
3:04yen’s depreciation wouldn't stop.
3:09Many countries want to keep their
3:11policy rates low, but they simply
3:13can’t hold them down. Even if you
3:18suppress the policy rate, long-term
3:20yields just keep rising on their own.
3:23Why? Because everyone anticipates
3:26future inflation, and that's the path
3:28every country is on now; we’ve
3:30reached a point where policy rates can
3:32no longer be contained, which is the
3:34current reality. Unless you understand
3:38that, you’ll realize Japan is
3:40completely falling behind. The whole
3:42reflationary mindset is already
3:44outdated. The idea that we don’t need
3:46to raise rates is just wrong and no
3:48longer holds water. People are out
3:51there spinning all sorts of theories,
3:53but they just won't fly anymore. We
3:58have to face reality, so I’m going to
4:00explain exactly how things stand today,
4:03just like I mentioned in last week’s
4:05YouTube video. I talked about how the
4:14tail risk the world fears most—low
4:16probability but high impact—has
4:18shifted from an AI bubble burst to a
4:20bond market crash and a spike in
4:22interest rates, and that’s exactly
4:24what we're seeing now. As you just saw,
4:30long-term interest rates are soaring at
4:33an incredible speed, aren't they? I
4:35mean, even in the U.S., people were
4:36worried about what would happen if it
4:38crossed 5%. It hit 5.2%, and in Japan,
4:41people wondered if it would hit 3%, and
4:44now it's reached 3.1%. This is the
4:47current global trend. I want to take
4:49some time today to talk through the
4:50background of these developments. We
4:53are at a very critical juncture, and if
4:55we don't understand this, we won't be
4:57able to grasp how things are developing
4:59. To explain this week’s movements
5:07and current global trends, the fastest
5:10way is, using my handwritten notes
5:12again, to look at SoftBank Group's
5:14corporate bonds. The reason SoftBank
5:21Group’s bonds are so popular is not
5:23because of the domestic market, but
5:25because they were issued overseas. They
5:31have issued various types, but for the
5:337.5-year maturity, the interest rate
5:36was set at 9.75%. In total, they raised
5:43about 1.7 to 1.8 trillion yen—given
5:46current exchange rates, it might shift
5:49from 1.7 to 1.8—but to raise that
5:51much at a 9.75%interest rate is
5:54incredible. A 9.75%rate means that if
5:59you borrow 100 million yen, you pay
6:029.75 million. That's the annual
6:06interest payment, so it's a massive
6:08interest rate. Even so, it’s quite
6:13popular, which shows the lengths they
6:15are going to for funding. As I
6:23mentioned, when you see a 9.75%rate,
6:25our natural reaction is to wonder why
6:28they would borrow money at such a high
6:31cost; why borrow at 10%? Well, it's
6:39simple. They believe they can earn even
6:42more than that. Normally, if you borrow
6:48at 10%, you’d think you could make it
6:51work by generating 12%or 15%in profit,
6:54right? That’s not the way they are
6:58thinking. That is not the mindset here.
7:01In short, they are thinking about
7:03borrowing at 10%to double their money,
7:05or at the very least, aiming for a 50%
7:08return. This is possible in the world
7:11of AI, which is why it’s a world
7:13where investments are being made. That
7:15is the situation we are in right now.
7:17That’s the way the investors are
7:19thinking about it. Yes. So, it’s not
7:22just SoftBank Group. According to
7:25today's Nikkei newspaper, while
7:27SoftBank Group is talking about 1.8
7:30trillion yen, the current global bond
7:32market—or rather, the fundraising
7:35volume—has reached 360 trillion yen.
7:40It’s not just SoftBank’s 1.7
7:41trillion; that’s how much money
7:43people are out there borrowing across
7:45the globe. That’s because there are
7:49places to invest it. Those investment
7:54targets—well, not everything is AI,
7:56but the vast majority is related to AI.
8:02There’s an incredible rush to invest
8:04in that sector. And what does that mean
8:07? It means there’s a shortage of
8:09money. Everyone is competing for funds.
8:11"I want to invest, so lend me money,
8:13lend me money"—it’s become a
8:15scramble for cash. There’s so much to
8:17do in AI, power, semiconductors, and
8:20computing power. That’s where the
8:21money is going. Because there's a
8:23scramble for funds, the so-called price
8:25of money is rising. What is the price
8:28of money? Isn't it interest rates? So,
8:31those interest rates are going up. Yes.
8:35And, Think about it. In a normal
8:42business—if you think about it in
8:44Japan today—you’d think, "I can’t
8:46possibly invest at a 10%interest rate,"
8:49right? But as I just said, if you can
8:53make several times your investment, the
8:55interest rate doesn't matter at all. It
8:58means you can easily pay off that 10%.
9:03The investment focused on this massive
9:05AI revolution and industrial shift is
9:07enormous. So, from the perspective of a
9:12normal investor, interest rates have
9:15spiked like this, right? Since rates
9:18have shot up so high, you’d think, "I
9:20can't buy stocks," but that's not the
9:22case here. It doesn't matter. SoftBank
9:26Group will raise funds at 9%or 10%and
9:29invest it in AI. Because they believe
9:32it will generate huge future profits.
9:35This is the current trend in the world.
9:37So, the idea that high interest rates
9:39will stop capital investment is
9:40what’s being sold in Japan right now,
9:43isn't it? "No, no, no, you shouldn't
9:45raise rates.""If interest rates go up,
9:47capital investment will stop, right?"
9:49What are you talking about? What are
9:51you saying? People are borrowing at 10%
9:53interest, you know. That means there
9:54are enough investment targets out there
9:56. If the profit potential—the
9:58expected return—is higher than the
10:00interest rate, then naturally, yes,
10:02naturally you can borrow money;
10:04that’s the world we’re in now.
10:07That’s what it comes down to. What
10:09does this mean? Listen, the landscape
10:11is completely different from the
10:13deflationary era when the value of
10:15capital was zero or near zero. This is
10:18the current global trend. They’re
10:20saying it in Japan, right? "If you
10:21raise interest rates, won't capital
10:23investment decrease?" Is it not that
10:25kind of world? It isn't that kind of
10:27world anymore. There are endless places
10:29to generate profit and opportunities to
10:32make multiples on investments, so
10:33there’s this global surge of people
10:35saying, "Give us money, we want to
10:37borrow money." That’s why the
10:40landscape has completely changed. A
10:44world completely different from the
10:46thinking and ideas held in Japan is
10:48surging in from across the globe. Yes,
10:51they’re saying they’ll lend you
10:53money even at 10%, even at 10%. Such a
10:56dynamic world is upon us now. It’s
11:00exactly like this. We’re betting on
11:02major industrial changes, so the
11:04landscape has completely shifted. What
11:09I want you to consider here is the
11:11contrast. Contrast. Uh, are you ready?
11:15It’s almost funny, honestly.
11:17They’re saying, "Don't raise interest
11:19rates." I wondered what they meant by "
11:21don't raise rates" in Japan, but I
11:22suppose I understand the sentiment. I
11:24understand it, because things are tough
11:26, right? "Interest rate hikes—don't
11:28hike rates." We have a world saying "
11:30don't raise rates by 0.25%" existing
11:33alongside a world where people are
11:35borrowing money even at 10%interest.
11:38Isn't that amazing? On one side,
11:40they’re pushing ahead, saying "lend
11:42me money at 10%for these investments,"
11:44and they keep going. And yet, in Japan,
11:46they’re saying, "Please, spare us
11:49from a 0.25%rate hike." What is this
11:53contrast, you know? It really is—on
11:57one side, there's capital investment at
11:59nearly 10%. One side is saying, "0.25%
12:03is painful, please stop." What does
12:06that mean? What's going on? Yeah. The
12:09answer is quite clear: it’s the
12:11so-called growth rate. The growth rate
12:13applied to that very thing.
12:16Productivity and profit margins are
12:18completely different. This is
12:20fundamentally different. The world is
12:23focused on AI, data centers, power, and
12:26physical AI, right? They are investing
12:30trillions, tens of trillions into
12:32autonomous driving and so on. They’re
12:35investing regardless of interest rates,
12:36just because they need to. But look at
12:40Japan right now. "Don't raise interest
12:42rates." They did. "0.25%is painful,"
12:45they say. "Small and medium enterprises
12:47are suffering." That's true. "Mortgage
12:49rates will go up.""It's painful.""Don't
12:52raise rates." That's what they’re
12:54saying. What is this contrast? This
12:58contrast is a mess, isn't it? In short,
13:02what is Japan's real problem right now?
13:08Why does a mere 0.25%rate hike cause so
13:12much pain? That is the question here.
13:17What we in Japan really need to think
13:19about isn't whether or not to lower
13:21interest rates. That's not it. Is that
13:25level of productivity really okay? Is
13:27it okay to have such low profit margins
13:29? Is it okay not to pass on costs, or
13:32not to invest in growth? That is the
13:35major issue. I understand that it's
13:37hard for companies that aren't large
13:38corporations. I understand, but
13:43that’s the question being asked; if
13:45those with massive capital keep
13:47investing and driving interest rates up
13:49, you can't resist that flow. Even if
13:55you say you want low interest rates,
13:57the global trend won't allow for it.
14:02Listen, the world has shifted to a
14:04place where people invest not because
14:06rates are low, but because they can
14:08make a profit even at high rates. The
14:13world has changed. The world has
14:15changed. Japan has been saying it for
14:1830 years. Low interest rates. That if
14:21you lower rates, people will invest.
14:24That’s what we’ve said. We’ve
14:25done it that way all along. Lowering
14:27rates to zero so that people will
14:29invest. We even went to negative
14:30interest rates. Yes, we did. But look
14:33at the results. We did that for 30
14:36years. Look at that. Look at the
14:38results. Did our growth potential
14:41increase? Did it really increase in the
14:44end? Just look at the result. Well,
14:49with zero interest rates, negative
14:51rates, and monetary easing, all we've
14:54done is leave behind companies that
14:56can't grow. The question is, isn't this
15:00the current state of Japan? That’s
15:04what I’m questioning. This fact means
15:06that, on one hand, 10%is achievable.
15:09While on the other, 0.25%is seen as
15:11difficult. We all must consider the
15:15root cause of this contrast. It's not
15:20just about the government spending
15:22money or lowering interest rates. The
15:25world is beyond that level now. The
15:28global trend is to keep investing and
15:30moving forward, even at 10%interest. We
15:34must face this reality. Yes, that is
15:37the current situation. Essentially,
15:42listen, you can't stop the change of
15:44the times. You can't stop the change of
15:48the times.
15:50The problem isn't that interest rates
15:52are high. Even at 1.25%or 1.5%, we have
15:56a structure where companies survive on
15:59low profit margins.
16:03Right. A structure where companies
16:05survive even without making a profit.
16:07That kind of structure has taken hold
16:09across Japan. This is the real issue.
16:12That’s why I’ve been saying it. We
16:14have to implement structural reform. We
16:16have to make things stronger. We had to
16:19build a system that can thrive even
16:20when gas prices are high. I understand,
16:23Kura-san, that it’s not that simple.
16:26I understand, but that is the world now
16:28. That's it. That is the world. We have
16:32no choice but to live within it.
16:35That’s why the world is changing
16:37right beneath our feet. The world is
16:40facing inflation, labor shortages, lack
16:43of resources, AI investment, and power
16:46shortages. And as I said, the value of
16:50money is rising, so rates keep going up
16:52. When the value of money keeps rising,
16:56interest rates rise along with it. This
16:59is a global movement. A global movement
17:02. Complaining about Japan raising
17:04interest rates won't change anything.
17:07It’s a global trend. And wishing to
17:11go back to the past, begging not to
17:13raise rates, won't get us anywhere. It
17:16won't start anything. We live within a
17:20larger global flow; we have to face
17:22reality. Gasoline prices went up. It
17:27can't be helped. Interest rates rose
17:29globally. It can't be helped. Yeah. I
17:33understand the desire, though. "Stop
17:36the inflation." I understand that
17:39desire. Right. "Stop the weak yen."
17:43Exactly. I understand the desire, but
17:46it doesn't work that way. Yes, "Stop
17:49the inflation." But saying "don't raise
17:53interest rates" doesn't work that way.
17:56That’s just the Reflationists giving
17:58you a fantasy. Yes, saying inflation
18:02will stop and things will work without
18:05raising rates is a fantasy. You have to
18:08realize that. It doesn't work that way.
18:11It doesn't work out like that. If
18:13someone says something sweet, you want
18:15to believe it. I get that you want to
18:18believe it, but reality says otherwise.
18:20People say, "Stop the weak yen." But
18:23they also say, "Keep the monetary
18:25easing." It doesn't work that way. It
18:27just doesn't work that way. To stop the
18:30weak yen, you have to tighten monetary
18:32policy. You have to raise interest
18:34rates. That is the reality. You can't
18:38make everything better at once. You
18:40have to look at that reality. Yes,
18:41that’s what I’ve been saying. I'm
18:43saying it's impossible. It is
18:45impossible. It’s a question of
18:47whether you accept the change or not.
18:49It is changing drastically. It is
18:51changing right under our feet. AI firms
18:54, semiconductor firms, power companies,
18:57data centers—many Japanese companies
18:59are acknowledging this change. They
19:03realize it’s a major shift and are
19:05trying to adapt to it. Yeah, and
19:07investors are watching the changes too,
19:10right? Even investors are watching the
19:12changes. As investors, we are watching
19:14the changes. With money flowing into AI
19:17companies and stocks rising sharply,
19:19we’re witnessing a major shift. Yeah,
19:24that’s why I’ve been saying it.
19:26This trend is unstoppable now. This
19:28momentum cannot be contained. I've been
19:31saying that high stocks, a weak yen,
19:33and rising interest rates are a major
19:35trend. But on the other hand, some say
19:37that’s wrong. They say don't raise
19:39rates. They say bring the interest
19:41rates back down. I understand that
19:44sentiment, but look at reality. The
19:48changes won't stop. The changes won't
19:51stop. They just won't stop. Denying it
19:54won't get you anywhere. Denying it
19:57won't change a thing. So we have to
20:02accept it and think about how we’ll
20:03live within this trend. Right? Just
20:08look at crude oil prices. Look at
20:10gasoline prices. I mean, salt is 400
20:14yen now; that is the reality. We have
20:17no choice but to adapt to it. Like I
20:20said last week, even if you provide
20:22temporary subsidies, everything is
20:24going up because of the weak yen, and
20:26it’s all the same in the end.
20:28Whatever you do, it ends up the same.
20:30In the end, you’re going to take the
20:32hit anyway. It's all just temporary,
20:34isn't it? We have to prepare ourselves
20:37for that reality—that’s what this
20:39is about. That’s why I’ve been
20:41saying it. Why are you against raising
20:44rates? No one wants to raise rates. If
20:47you raise rates, interest payments just
20:49keep mounting because of our borrowing
20:51history. Yeah, I get it. If you raise
20:55rates, borrowing costs go up, and small
20:57businesses will struggle, right? They
20:59ask, why raise rates? Yeah, but
21:02here’s the question. So, will you be
21:05saved if we don't raise rates? Do you
21:08really think things will go well if we
21:10don't? Just look. Just look at it. Even
21:14if we raise rates, the yen will still
21:17weaken. Even with the rate hike,
21:19interest rates are still rising.
21:21Long-term rates, that is. What do you
21:23think would have happened without the
21:25hike? If we hadn’t hiked in September
21:29, who knows how far the yen would have
21:31fallen. If we hadn't hiked, it would
21:34have signaled that Japan wasn't
21:36tackling inflation, and long-term rates
21:38would have spiked even more. Any
21:42investor should immediately grasp that.
21:46Like those reflationists saying, "Don't
21:48hike rates." Doesn't that sound
21:51ridiculous? If we hadn't hiked in
21:53September, we’d be in a terrible
21:55situation. If you're an investor, you
21:57know it. You know things would have
21:58gotten ugly if we hadn't hiked in
22:00September. It’s an intuitive
22:02realization that we’d be in a
22:03nightmare. Even after the hike, it hit
22:06159 yen. Even with the hike, interest
22:09rates have surged this much. Rates rose
22:11because we hiked. Are you kidding me?
22:13Seriously, give me a break. Rate hikes
22:16are done to stop inflation. We hiked to
22:19stop the looming inflation. The point
22:22is, inflation should cool down because
22:24of it. The fact that long-term rates
22:28are still rising shows there's huge
22:30underlying inflationary pressure.
22:33Reflationists don’t understand that
22:34at all. Because they aren't even
22:36watching the market. They aren't
22:37watching the market. They're just
22:39talking based on their own theories.
22:42They’re just brainwashing you with
22:44happy, carefree nonsense. Face the
22:47reality. If you listen to that stuff,
22:49you’ll end up in serious trouble.
22:51Yeah. Look, the burden doesn't just
22:54vanish. Listen, not hiking rates
22:57creates pressure for a weaker yen. If
23:00you don't hike, the resulting yen
23:01weakness leads to higher import prices.
23:04Crude oil, gas, electricity, rent, raw
23:07materials—corporate costs rise,
23:10prices go up, and inflation keeps
23:12spiraling; inflation expectations rise,
23:15and eventually, long-term rates will
23:18just keep climbing. Even after hiking
23:21in September, this is where we're at.
23:24If we hadn't hiked, it would have been
23:26a chaotic world. Anyone who’s been
23:28trading should understand that
23:30instantly. People who don't trade can
23:32sit there forever spouting idealistic
23:34nonsense about how things aren't like
23:36that, but hey, it doesn't work that way
23:38. That's the reality. Uh. Look, the
23:42argument against raising rates is that
23:44if you hike the policy rate, the
23:46interest burden on companies increases.
23:49They're only looking at this part.
23:50They're only looking at this. That's
23:52not the case. If inflation concerns
23:55intensify and you say you won't raise
23:57the policy rate, you'll be seen as
23:59ignoring inflation, causing long-term
24:02market rates to rise even further. It's
24:04at 3.1%now, right? If we didn't hike,
24:07it would be around 3.5%. If we didn't
24:10hike, it would be at 170 yen. Things
24:12would get completely out of control.
24:14People who trade know that. Yeah, so
24:17take a look at the actual 10-year
24:19Japanese government bond yield. I've
24:21been talking about the Kishida
24:22administration's policies. Under these
24:24policies, stocks rise, the yen weakens,
24:26and interest rates just go up. Isn't
24:28that exactly what's happening? Look at
24:30it. From 46,000 yen to 72,000 yen. The
24:33yen went from 146 to 164. Long-term
24:36rates went from 1.6%to 3.1%. Isn't that
24:39just as I predicted? Isn't it moving
24:42exactly as I said? In short, if the
24:46central bank is perceived as not
24:48dealing with inflation, it has to look
24:50like it is. Unless people believe that,
24:55this country won't stop the rise in
24:57prices. They end up being seen that way
25:00. Is the value of the yen okay? That's
25:03the thing. I can't buy at interest
25:05rates like that. It ends up with people
25:07asking for even higher rates. I
25:09certainly understand. Rate hikes are
25:11painful. It's a burden on households
25:13and companies. Yes, it is. So why would
25:17a central bank go out of its way to
25:18hike rates? It's to prevent things from
25:22getting much worse. Raising rates for
25:24the sake of financial institutions?
25:26It's not something that shallow. It's
25:28not something that shallow. What the
25:30central bank is thinking is that things
25:32might get even worse, so we have to
25:34raise rates now. That's the decision.
25:38That's the decision. They don't
25:39understand reflation, you see. The two
25:41people at the Bank of Japan who opposed
25:43it, they can't see what's ahead. They
25:45can't see it. Well, because they don't
25:47trade. Since we work in the markets, we
25:49get it immediately. That’s just
25:51impossible, you know. There’s no such
25:53thing as a peaceful world without
25:54interest rate hikes. It’s a huge
25:56mistake to think everything will work
25:58out; like I said, it’s just an
26:00illusion. Uh, like after a fire has
26:02started. Oh, it’s turned into a
26:04disaster. You become a firefighter. It
26:05can’t be helped. You have to put it
26:07out while it’s still small. You have
26:08to put it out while it’s still small.
26:10That’s what monetary policy is.
26:12That’s exactly what they’re doing
26:13now. People say, wait, prices aren’t
26:16up 1.7%yet—what is it? Consumer
26:19prices? The initial costs aren't up?
26:22They’re going to go up from here.
26:24It’s clear to see. Even the Bank of
26:27Japan's policy papers say so. They are
26:29going to go up. Obviously. Just look at
26:32crude oil prices. Look at the trend up
26:34to this point. Producer prices are
26:37already high, you know. Look at that.
26:40If you’re living your life, you
26:41should know. Various prices are rising,
26:43aren't they? Rent is going up, too.
26:46It’s obvious what’s coming next, so
26:48what are people even talking about? If
26:51you're living in the real world, you
26:53should feel it. People just say, "It's
26:56fine right now, so it’s okay, it’s
26:58okay." That’s just what people who
27:01can't see the future say. You can see
27:04it yourself, can’t you? That’s why
27:07I’ve been saying it. You have to let
27:10go of that illusion. You have to let go
27:12of that illusion. The illusion. The
27:15idea that if you don't raise interest
27:17rates, nobody gets hurt. There’s no
27:19way things will work out like that. In
27:22reality, you just get a different
27:23burden, like a weak yen and
27:25import-driven inflation, if you don’t
27:27raise rates. Just look at the
27:29aggressive fiscal spending. The yen
27:32keeps weakening, import prices are
27:34rising, and that’s a different burden
27:36—inflation. It’s all the same thing
27:39. There is no answer where everything
27:41goes perfectly. You have to understand
27:44that. People think if we just return to
27:45the old interest rates, it will solve
27:47everything. Don't raise interest rates.
27:49Did I say something? Like just now?
27:51SoftBank Group is borrowing at 10%
27:53interest. Wait, the world's richest
27:55people are issuing debt and coming for
27:57our money—of course interest rates
27:59are going to rise, that's inevitable.
28:02If that's the global trend, you can
28:04argue all you want against raising
28:06rates, but you can't fight the tide. If
28:08we keep this up, U.S. and European
28:10interest rates will keep climbing, and
28:12if Japan doesn't raise ours, the yen
28:14will just keep weakening. Then, in the
28:16end, that weak yen will come back to
28:18bite us and drive prices up. Even a
28:20grade schooler can see that, can't they
28:22? That's exactly how it is. With the
28:25money from the past, well, they're
28:27investing because of labor shortages
28:29and high resource costs. The price
28:31settings are completely different now.
28:33They’ll raise prices right away.
28:35It’s different from before, I’m
28:37telling you. It’s changing. You need
28:39to recognize that. I mean, as I said
28:42earlier, if current consumer prices are
28:45low—sure, the August CPI was 1.7%.
28:49But think about it. This is only
28:51because of government subsidies, right?
28:54They forced it—dumping nearly 10
28:56trillion yen since 2022 to artificially
28:59suppress it. But as I said, the weak
29:02yen is making it all come back around
29:04eventually. And even though they did
29:08this, the effect is going to wear off
29:10after a year. Exactly. Then you’ll
29:15see the consumer price index start
29:17rising from that new baseline. We’re
29:20right on the verge of that now.
29:21Complaining about it won't change
29:23anything. That’s why, if the Bank of
29:27Japan sees the shift, realizes
29:29inflation might be coming, and takes
29:31preemptive action, that’s just common
29:34sense. During a deflationary period,
29:38maybe lagging with monetary policy is
29:40fine, but the change has already begun.
29:42So, it’s just the natural thing to do
29:44. Looking ahead at prices and preparing
29:47for them is just common sense. This is
29:50it.
29:51You can’t just maintain the old world
29:53through policy alone. As I just
29:56mentioned, policies like subsidies
29:58always have side effects—it’s not
30:00all just good news. Yeah, ultimately
30:03the burden falls somewhere—on
30:04interest, the yen, prices, or corporate
30:07profits. It all ends up the same. Even
30:09handing out subsidies is just a
30:11temporary fix. Yeah, that’s just
30:13impossible. Yeah, things like that
30:15can’t go on forever. I mean, that’s
30:17exactly why the yen is weakening like
30:19this. You’ve spoken about experts who
30:21face that reality, right? Yes. Right.
30:24Yeah. Always going on about stuff like
30:26Asakura. I’m sure some people think,
30:28"Don't mess with me." Some people
30:29surely do think that. Look, I'm not
30:31saying raising rates is easy. I’m not
30:33saying it's a walk in the park. Raising
30:35rates is painful. Yeah, if you raise
30:37rates, you have to pay up. Yeah, you
30:39have to pay. But like I said earlier. I
30:42said SoftBank Group has to pay 9.75
30:44million yen for every 100 million they
30:46borrow. They pay 9.75 million yen in
30:49interest. In a year, if you raise rates
30:51by 0.25%, what happens when you borrow
30:54100 million? You pay 250,000 yen more.
30:56One side is already paying 9.75 million
30:59in interest. The other side is whining
31:03about paying 250,000. It's that
31:06contrast. The question is, is that
31:09really okay? It can't be helped. This
31:12is the global trend, after all. Saying
31:14"it can't be helped" doesn't change
31:16anything. Raising rates is painful, but
31:21if you avoid it, a different kind of
31:23pain will just come for you. It
31:27doesn’t just disappear. The pain
31:29won't just vanish. That suffering
31:31isn’t going anywhere. Everyone thinks
31:33it’ll be so painful. That it’ll get
31:35so difficult. That there’s no need to
31:37raise rates. Uh.
31:38That it won't be painful at all. That
31:40it’ll go well. Ah, an illusion.
31:43Holding onto illusions until you
31:45eventually sink. Having such a naive
31:48mindset. You’re just believing in the
31:51fantasy others are selling. Reality is
31:54moving in a completely different
31:56direction. You have no choice but to
31:58admit it. "Take us back to the old days
32:00, don't raise interest rates.""Stop the
32:03yen from falling.""Don't raise prices."
32:05You can't do all of those things at the
32:07same time. It’s impossible. Something
32:10is bound to give. Yes, it's inevitable.
32:13If you try to keep rates low, the yen
32:15weakens; if you try to support the yen,
32:17rates rise. It’s just unavoidable.
32:20Look, just see for yourself. Right now,
32:24the probability of a rate hike in Japan
32:27this October has reached 30%. Asakura
32:32has been saying this since July, or
32:35even earlier. We will see a rate hike
32:38this September. If things continue,
32:40there’s even a possibility of
32:41consecutive hikes in October. There
32:43will be a hike in December, too. I’ve
32:45been saying that since this spring. In
32:48reality, the September hike did happen.
32:54Now, the market is speculating on an
32:56October hike, pushing that probability
32:59up to 30%. It’s at 30%now. The chance
33:06of consecutive hikes will likely rise
33:08if the yen weakens past 160. Then, on
33:12October 1st, we get the Tankan survey.
33:18If that report confirms strong
33:20inflationary momentum, an October hike
33:22and consecutive raises come into view.
33:28In America, the probability of an
33:31October rate hike has already hit 70%.
33:34This is how the world is moving. This
33:36is how the market is moving right now.
33:38Complaining won't change anything.
33:40Complaining and pushing fantasies,
33:42saying "don't raise rates"—that’s
33:44pointless. Some reflationists claim
33:47rate hikes are driving inflation; that
33:49is completely absurd logic. It’s a
33:53nonsensical theory. Raising rates is
33:57exactly what’s needed to stop
33:58inflation. They are just trying to stop
34:02the rise in prices. But the fact is,
34:06they are struggling to keep it under
34:08control. Anyone trading in the market
34:11should understand exactly what I’m
34:13saying. People who don't trade might be
34:16clinging to illusions. They may be
34:19delusional, but the point is, we can
34:21see what’s coming. We can see ahead,
34:24so we act proactively. So, you buy
34:27stocks. Things are going well, you're
34:29managing. But if you hold on to that
34:33illusion, you’ll just sink. It’s
34:36something you’re better off knowing.
34:40That’s what it is. Yeah.
34:44So, this is today’s handwritten
34:46series.
34:51In short,
34:53we've entered a major trend where you
34:55can’t take things lightly. Going back
34:59to the beginning, there’s a massive
35:01global trend of people begging to
35:02borrow money, no matter how high the
35:04interest rates are. Plus, plus.
35:10Countries don’t have money, right? So
35:12they issue government bonds. Just the
35:15U.S. has issued 6.4 quadrillion yen in
35:17Treasury bonds. Japan has issued over 1
35:21quadrillion yen, too. And they’re
35:24trying to absorb that from the market.
35:27Even though there's only so much money
35:28in the world. Countries say, "Please
35:30buy our government bonds." The U.S.
35:32also says, "Buy our bonds." Then
35:35SoftBank says, "Lend us money." Meta
35:37also asks to borrow money. And then,
35:39Alphabet asks to borrow money too.
35:42Apple asks to borrow money as well.
35:44Everyone is coming forward like this.
35:46That’s why interest rates keep
35:48climbing higher and higher. That is the
35:50current world we live in. It’s the
35:52world. It can’t be helped. At a time
35:55like this, saying 0.25%is "no good, no
35:58good" won't get us anywhere. It won't
36:00start anything. Look at the world. Look
36:04at the reality. That’s what’s
36:07important. Yes, that’s what it means.
36:11So, take a look at this market.
36:15That’s why,
36:17stocks are getting weirder and weirder,
36:19aren't they? With 10-year bond yields
36:24at 3.1%, 5.2%in the U.S., and 3.6%in
36:26Germany—you’d think if interest
36:29rates keep rising, money would go into
36:31bonds instead of risky stocks, right?
36:36But that’s not happening at all;
36:38it’s all flowing into stocks. They
36:41won't budge. This is reality. Things
36:45are changing. A massive shift is
36:47happening. You need to recognize that.
36:53If you think things will go on as they
36:54always have forever, you’re making a
36:56huge mistake—you need to realize that
36:58the era has completely changed. I
37:02should warn you that chasing the sweet
37:04fantasy of reflation could lead to
37:05serious trouble. Yeah. So, looking at
37:09the Nikkei 225. Ah, it’s going up,
37:12isn’t it? My feeling is that it’ll
37:16continue toward the end of the year.
37:18Yeah. My forecast is 80,000 yen by
37:20year-end, you know. Yeah. Everything is
37:23going pretty much as expected. As
37:25expected. Yeah. But since the rate hike
37:28is happening so fast, you know. It’s
37:31bound to have an impact, so I keep that
37:33possibility in mind, too. Asakura
37:35thinks so, too. Yeah. It's amazing,
37:39isn't it? But he doesn’t even blink
37:41at the gold price. It’s really
37:42something, isn’t it? Yeah. With that,
37:44let’s take a look at some individual
37:46stocks. Individual stocks. Yeah. This
37:49one still isn’t moving. It feels like
37:51it should be moving soon, right? As for
37:53the memory stocks. They’re up 1,000
37:55yen, but at 55,000 yen. Still only half
37:58their high, right? It’s cheap. Cheap.
38:01Cheap. SoftBank Group. Ah, it’s down
38:05today, isn’t it? Yeah. Well, Oracle
38:10had some issues building their data
38:11centers. They keep trying to build more
38:19and more, but with power shortages and
38:21other shortages, various problems are
38:23coming up, and because of that, Oracle
38:25got sold off, and SoftBank Group was
38:27dragged down with it. Well, Tokyo
38:34Electron is up a little bit too. Yeah.
38:36Advantest is moving up as well. These
38:38look good, don’t they? Yeah. Toyota
38:40should be doing well with the weak yen.
38:42Yeah. It’s still in a stalemate,
38:44though. Toyota, well, Mitsubishi UFJ is
38:47rebounding again. The trend of rising
38:49interest rates won’t stop, after all.
38:51It’s the main play, isn't it? But
38:54there is the final dividend capture
38:56coming up, so today and early next week
38:57, we’ll see how that plays out.
39:01Fujikura, it’s still consolidating,
39:03isn’t it? Yeah, and crude oil isn’t
39:06settling down either. Crude oil isn’t
39:08settling down, no. Crude oil won’t
39:10settle. It’s up again today. Ah, and
39:12the shipping stocks are holding strong,
39:14too. I mean, even the Panama Canal is
39:17becoming impassable. It's like, oh,
39:20there’s nowhere left to go through.
39:22We’re going to need a lot more ships.
39:24Because the transport routes are
39:26getting much longer, you see. Yeah.
39:28Yeah. Well, there are many reasons for
39:32this, but this is the reality we face.
39:36Yes, we really have to look at reality.
39:39We have to look at the world. And we
39:41have to learn to live while accepting
39:43that. And anyway, well, it’s not
39:47going to change. It won't change.
39:51Whether it's stocks or the weak yen.
39:54There’s no stopping this trend.
39:56Thinking it will settle down is a huge
39:58mistake; it’s going to keep going. It
40:00will keep on going. It will reach
40:02levels that will surprise you. That is
40:05the future that awaits us. It seems
40:08cheap right now. From my perspective,
40:10Asakura, I think it's quite cheap. So,
40:14welcome to Japan. Hello. Now then, our
40:20company is finally doing this for real.
40:28We’ve created an official LINE
40:30account, the real one, the ASK1 LINE
40:32account—Asakura’s ASK 1—so
40:34anything other than what I’m telling
40:36you here is a fake; this one is the
40:38real deal. After all, why start a LINE
40:45account? It’s convenient, isn't it?
40:51And since ASK1 is an information
40:53dissemination company, we offer things
40:55like seminars, reports, CDs, and
40:57morning news. We provide various things
41:01like that, right? So, because of the
41:04market conditions, we can send news
41:05like this. Or tell you about reports
41:09like this, or what we want to talk
41:11about at the next seminar. Plus, we
41:14have gourmet information after our
41:16seminars, so we can tell you where
41:17we’re going to eat next; there’s so
41:19much we can share. I’d always wanted
41:22to do it because it’s so easy and
41:24convenient to send out information.
41:28Unfortunately, a lot of fakes have
41:29popped up, but now that we have this
41:31official one, it seems we can issue
41:33warnings about those fakes. So, I’ve
41:37decided to open up an official LINE
41:39account for this. And for those who
41:43register on this LINE, I have a special
41:45offer. First, it’s about when I was
41:5125, two years after joining the
41:53securities firm. About two and a half
41:58years, actually. I took a big gamble
42:02back then, and because that gamble paid
42:04off, I was able to go independent. You
42:13might have seen my failure stories on
42:14Rakumachi, which get quite a lot of
42:16views, but this success story happened
42:18when I was 25. There are other failure
42:20stories that followed, and those are
42:22quite interesting too. I wrote about
42:32this in a book back in the day, so
42:33I’ve compiled that story to send to
42:35you as it is. It’s a story about my
42:39younger days, and you'll see what kind
42:41of things I went through, Asakura-style
42:43. I think you’ll realize that I’ve
42:46always been a risk-taker, a bit of a
42:47gambler at heart. You know, life has
42:51those defining moments where you have
42:53to make a choice, right? Some people
42:58might just drift along, but making a
43:00big decision—like quitting your
43:02company—is a huge deal, isn't it?
43:07When I quit my job, I made sure I was
43:09properly prepared before going
43:10independent. I wrote about that, and
43:14that’s the first thing I’ll be
43:16sending you as a bonus. The second
43:19thing is a video for beginners
43:21featuring Nishino—it’s quite long,
43:23actually. I believe it's over an hour
43:26long. I’m giving that as a gift, so
43:29those who register will get plenty of
43:31interesting content. I think it’s
43:34well worth checking out. After you
43:37register, through that LINE account,
43:39I’ll be sending out all sorts of
43:41information, like upcoming seminars and
43:43CDs. I’ll keep you updated on all
43:45those topics, so stay tuned. Nowadays,
43:49there are all sorts of scams—
43:51demanding tens of millions—and we get
43:53plenty of reports from people who have
43:55been swindled. But these K1 products
43:59are different. A seminar costs about
44:0312,000 or 13,000 yen, and a report is
44:06only 3,300 yen. It’s just a small
44:10credit card transaction, at most a few
44:12tens of thousands of yen, and we don't
44:14do anything beyond that. Plus, since we
44:20can communicate both ways, perhaps my
44:22young colleague Kuromai or someone else
44:24can handle those discussions. We're
44:29considering that, so anyway, we've
44:31opened a LINE account. Please, by all
44:36means, go ahead and register so you can
44:38enjoy it. Learn the secrets behind the
44:47global economy. It’s about knowing
44:50the truth. At the Asakura Kei seminar,
44:55I will speak at length about the most
44:57relevant topics in politics and
44:59economics at the time, so please be
45:00sure to listen. We’ve already posted
45:07the seminars on our website, so if you
45:09watch them and like what you see,
45:10please come join us and put it to use
45:12in your business and investments.
45:15I’ll be waiting for you.

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This page contains the full transcript of 2026年9月25日　世界はお金を奪い合う（金利高）　幻想を捨てろ！【朝倉慶の株式投資・株式相場解説】 by 朝倉慶のASK1, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 6,441 words across 1,007 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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