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なぜインフレは止められない＜早めに行動した者のみ生き残る＞2026年1月17日開催ASAKURA経済セミナーより — Transcript

by 朝倉慶のASK1 · 7,934 words · 1,254 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Hello. Well, this video is from nine
0:04months ago. It’s a recording of a
0:08seminar from January 2026. The title of
0:16the seminar was "Why Inflation Cannot
0:17Be Stopped: Only Those Who Act Early
0:19Will Survive," and when I think about
0:21the situation back then, you know,
0:23experts always release their forecasts
0:25at the start of the year, right?
0:31Especially with business executives '
0:33predictions, I was actually surprised
0:35to see that their yen exchange rate
0:37forecast was 146 yen. The Nikkei
0:40average at 60,000 yen. And, well, as
0:43for the inflation rate, it was 1.9%,
0:46meaning almost no one expected it to go
0:49above 2%. Personally, I found that
0:55unbelievable, but as you know, the
0:57Nikkei and the inflation rate have
0:59risen just as I predicted, and I
1:00explained the background behind that. I
1:06talked about why inflation would become
1:08unstoppable, and that if you didn't act
1:09early, you’d be in trouble. I went on
1:13to explain that entire trend. If you
1:17watch this, I think you'll clearly
1:18understand why things are the way they
1:20are right now. And you will fully grasp
1:23why we were backed into a corner where
1:25we had to raise interest rates. And
1:29well, the government has started saying
1:31they aren't reflationists or pursuing
1:33reflationary policies, but they shifted
1:35course like this simply because
1:36inflation rose. Considering all this,
1:44while they don't like being called
1:46reflationists anymore, I think you can
1:48see how carefree and unable to predict
1:50the future they were, so by watching
1:51this video, I believe the future trends
1:53will become much easier to understand,
1:55and I hope you watch it carefully and
1:57find it convincing. So, this is just
2:03the first part. I’d love to release
2:07the second half as well, but it’s
2:09become quite extreme. So, for now,
2:15I’m putting out this first part so
2:17you can understand the current
2:18situation, looking back from this
2:20seminar nine months ago, and I hope you
2:22can come to understand it. In short,
2:33what’s happening now is simply this.
2:37The value of money is dropping. That is
2:40...When we talk about hyperinflation
2:46due to the falling value of money,
2:48people immediately think of Zimbabwe,
2:50old Germany, or Argentina. "Japan
2:53wouldn't become like that.""There's no
2:55way that could happen.""We have the
2:58technology, a current account surplus,
2:59and we’re the world's largest
3:01creditor nation, so how could that
3:03possibly happen?" That is true.
3:07That’s why it doesn’t happen all at
3:09once. It’s a peaceful time. Society
3:14is very stable and we have technology.
3:17So, it happens slowly. It is slowly,
3:20surely advancing in Japan. It is a
3:23slow-motion, bad kind of inflation. And
3:29this bad inflation...Listen, if you
3:36look at history, you’ll see that
3:38Japanese people......have never
3:42experienced it before. They don't know
3:48the terror of inflation. For example,
3:50people in South America—Brazil,
3:52Argentina, and countries around there
3:54—everyone has experienced inflation,
3:56haven't they? The Germans are the same;
4:00they know from experience that
4:02inflation is a scary thing. However,
4:07Japanese people have always trusted the
4:09government, believing everything will
4:10be fine. That’s why they haven't felt
4:15the fear of inflation in their bones.
4:18Most of them just say, "Inflationary
4:20policy? Sure, go ahead," and keep
4:24supporting the government in printing
4:25more and more money. While there’s
4:30only been one time we’ve had
4:31inflation, if you look closely, there
4:33actually was one. For instance, the
4:35postwar period. After the war, it
4:38exploded all at once, didn't it? In
4:401946, during that chaotic period,
4:42everyone knew it was abnormal, leading
4:45to the currency swap. And the freezing
4:47of bank deposits. Yes, prices surged
4:49all at once, leading to total chaos.
4:53This time, it's a gradual crawl,
4:55appearing normal in peacetime but
4:57impossible to adjust. I’ll take a
5:01closer look at this now. Post-war
5:05inflation was certainly a severe
5:07hyperinflation that the Japanese people
5:09experienced. But remember, that was
5:14after defeat in the war. It was
5:18basically like being back at square one
5:19, right? There were no companies or
5:23anything else left. It was a complete
5:25reset. Also, the state itself barely
5:27functioned; it was basically run by the
5:29GHQ. That’s why they implemented
5:33deposit freezes and currency reforms, a
5:35story everyone already knows. People
5:37talk about how those deposit freezes
5:39and currency changes led to massive,
5:41terrible inflation, but...That was all
5:45after losing the war. It became an
5:48exception among exceptions. This was
5:52caused by the abnormal situation of war
5:54; in short, the Japanese have never
5:56experienced true peacetime inflation.
5:59The Japanese people, that is. It was an
6:05abnormal state of affairs. I know it
6:07happened, and it was indeed inflation.
6:12But from the Meiji Restoration up to
6:14the pre-war period, we actually didn't
6:16experience inflation. Sure, there were
6:18simple instances. There was inflation
6:21during World War I due to an economic
6:23boom, but basically, from the Meiji era
6:25to the pre-war years, we were on the
6:27gold standard. It was a gold standard
6:30system, wasn't it? Under the gold
6:31standard, there’s no way for
6:33inflation to occur. To put it bluntly,
6:35you can't just print money. Back then,
6:38fiscal discipline was incredibly strict
6:40. Yes. It was an era where a dollar was
6:43worth one yen, and maintaining the
6:45currency's value was essentially a
6:46national objective. So, the reason for
6:49the steady development from the Meiji
6:51Restoration onwards is precisely
6:52because we were on the gold standard.
6:54Well, that changed in 1935 or '36 under
6:57Korekiyo Takahashi when we abandoned
6:59the gold standard, and inflation did
7:01follow that. Yes, but even then, the
7:05inflation was limited; structural,
7:07chronic inflation simply didn't exist.
7:13And before that, in the Edo period, the
7:15population was flat and there was no
7:17way for productivity to increase. Well,
7:23that era was based on a rice standard,
7:25so the Edo period was extremely stable.
7:29It was a society that didn't develop.
7:30Anyone can understand this if they
7:32think about it, but it was that kind of
7:33era, after all, with the country closed
7:35off. Yes, so it was a stable, in other
7:37words, deflationary environment.
7:39Japanese people have never actually
7:41experienced what you would call decent
7:42inflation. Not the continuous kind of
7:45inflation. So, as I just said. In 1901,
7:50the price level was—this is the
7:52corporate goods price. It was 0.469. It
7:57did go up during World War I, but even
7:59then, it was only about three times
8:01what it was back then. Then, it became
8:03a wartime situation and led to the
8:05Showa Depression, so we're talking
8:07about it going from 0.5 to 1.5, and
8:09then from 1.5 back down to 1—it's
8:11only to that extent. Then, in 1936,
8:16when Takahashi Korekiyo started issuing
8:18government bonds one after another and
8:20tried to tighten the policy because it
8:22looked like inflation was coming, he
8:24got killed in the February 26 Incident,
8:26didn't he? From there, there were no
8:31brakes, we went into war, and the
8:33inflation rate jumped from 1 all the
8:35way up to 2319. It became a total
8:38hyperinflation, but that was because of
8:40the war. So, this is an exception; such
8:44a past did exist. However, in peacetime
8:49, we haven't experienced it. And, what
9:00we were taught in middle school was
9:02about inflation in the Edo period. We
9:06were taught that Tanuma Okitsugu was a
9:08villain for it. In history class in
9:14middle school, we were taught that he
9:16reduced the amount of gold in the
9:18currency and printed money rapidly,
9:19which caused terrible inflation—
9:21that's what's left in the textbooks.
9:28This is the only story about inflation
9:29that remains from the Edo period. That
9:32means it must have been exceptionally
9:34bad at that time. Yes, and they say
9:36Tanuma Okitsugu implemented reckless
9:38policies that caused prices to rise,
9:40rural villages to suffer, and politics
9:42to become corrupt, leading to a major
9:44disaster. You should have learned this
9:45in junior high school history. Right. I
9:47don’t know about now, but I was
9:48taught it back then. Yeah, and with the
9:51Kansei Reforms under Matsudaira
9:52Sadanobu, which was austerity, they
9:54didn’t endure inflation; they sensed
9:56it and immediately reversed course.
9:59That’s Japanese history for you. As
10:03you can see from things like this,
10:05Japan has never experienced peacetime
10:07inflation, continuous inflation, or a
10:09decrease in the value of money in its
10:11history. So, because there’s no
10:21experience, the idea that inflation is
10:23scary is something that exists only in
10:25textbooks. There are various scholars,
10:30including the reflationists, but...Even
10:36they haven’t truly studied or
10:38understood inflation. It’s just talk
10:43about things like Germany, which is all
10:45external to their textbooks. This is...
10:48And in Japan, prices don’t rise.
10:52Saving is good, interest rates go down
10:54—this worldview is different from,
10:56say, South America, but it has become
10:58common sense here. Therefore...What’s
11:07coming next is something Japanese
11:09people...Peacetime, continuous...For
11:18the first time in Japanese history, we
11:20will experience real inflation. Many
11:27people who come here own stocks. Seeing
11:31stocks go up and up and up like this,
11:33it really hits home that it might be
11:35true. Other people won't come; they
11:38hear this, but because they’re
11:39actually making money in practice, they
11:41have this sense that something is off.
11:44Other people won't come. Yeah, so real
11:47income won't recover. From now on,
11:49rents won't go down. Well, your savings
11:52will shrink every month. The government
11:54will keep saying it will subside. The
11:56government will keep saying it will
11:57subside. This will create a blank space
12:01in Japanese history. A blank space in
12:04the history of a Japanese people who
12:06have never experienced inflation is
12:07what’s coming next. What is it like?
12:15What is inflation really like? If I
12:23explain the flow up to this point in
12:25stages...It looks something like this.
12:29Perhaps at first, they support
12:31inflation. Because we were moving from
12:33deflation to inflation, they supported
12:34inflation, right? They’ve been
12:36supporting inflation since the days of
12:37Abenomics. And now that it’s truly
12:39become inflation, we are in the one-two
12:41stage of adapting to it. There are 12
12:44learning stages to adapting to
12:46inflation. This will continue for a
12:50little longer. In another year, what
12:52will certainly happen is people will
12:54start getting angry at inflation.
12:56They'll say, "What is this? Prices
12:57aren't going down at all.""Prices
12:59aren't going down, are they?" People
13:01will start to resent it. They'll start
13:03looking for the cause and making a fuss
13:05over who to blame. Eventually, they
13:10will start supporting extreme
13:11information. It will lead to great
13:15chaos. Whether we can reach the right
13:18policies is unknown. It’s a question
13:21mark, really. In short, even if we
13:23could reach them, we have to go through
13:25great chaos first. Let's look at this
13:28concretely. This is the first stage. In
13:33short, the idea was that since we had
13:35deflation, we needed inflation,
13:36claiming this inflation was necessary
13:38and better than deflation for growth. "
13:43Wages will eventually rise," they said,
13:45and we've been pushing active fiscal
13:47spending, subsidies, tax cuts, and
13:49monetary easing to make that happen.
13:53That is the current situation. But it's
13:56progressing simultaneously. Yes, the
13:58second stage is also underway. People
14:02have gotten used to it, thinking price
14:04hikes are inevitable, but they also
14:06realize life isn't getting any easier.
14:09Everyone thinks so. Yes. Price hikes
14:12are now taken for granted, saving has
14:14become habitual, and people are unsure
14:16about the future. Yes, that's what
14:19they're thinking. In short, at this
14:22stage and the stages to come, inflation
14:24is moving from an anomaly to becoming
14:26the norm. Until now, it was an anomaly.
14:29But now it's daily life, and the
14:31standard of living isn't recovering.
14:33People are thinking, "Something is
14:35wrong." It's strange. This sense of
14:37unease is spreading rapidly throughout
14:39Japan. Unease, it's strange. It's
14:41strange. It's strange. Yes, yes. For
14:51now, the inflation is at a level that
14:53can be endured, but it's becoming
14:55increasingly unbearable, leading to
14:57demands for politicians to do something
14:59, and eventually, this point becomes a
15:01turning point. This is the scary part.
15:09It’s a scary thing when it becomes a
15:10turning point. So, what does this
15:13really mean? No matter how many years
15:17pass, it won't settle down. This
15:18inflation is only going to accelerate.
15:21And won't our savings just keep
15:23shrinking in real terms? Another thing.
15:30There is always an important point here
15:32: the government will 100%keep saying
15:38it will subside. The government will
15:41keep saying it'll settle down. And then
15:45, it doesn't settle down. People will
15:50get truly angry, asking what's going on
15:52. We are about to enter this kind of
15:57mechanism. And so, what happens when it
16:04doesn't subside? The real reason it
16:12won't settle is that the Japanese
16:13population is aging, we have to support
16:15all these elderly people; there are
16:17such fundamental issues. Whether it's
16:22that only certain people grow rice, or
16:23that we should just import it and let
16:25the others go bankrupt, there are
16:27structural issues, but people will
16:28absolutely never look at those. What do
16:31I mean? When people get angry, they
16:35always look for a culprit. That's just
16:37how things are. It's like that even now
16:39. Yeah. They look at the stock market.
16:44They see stocks just keep going up and
16:46up. They see companies hitting record
16:49profits for five, six, seven, eight
16:51years. They say, "We're suffering from
16:55inflation, but companies are just
16:56making all the money.""They're making
16:59too much.""It's the foreigners' fault."
17:04Or. "Isn't the reason these prices are
17:06up just speculation?" People are saying
17:07that right now, aren't they? Real
17:09estate is going up. "Oh, foreigners are
17:11buying it all up.""Isn't it just
17:12speculation?""Nobody is even living
17:14there.""No, no, it's the Bank of Japan
17:16and the government's fault." It will
17:18inevitably turn out like this. In
17:21reality, as I said, structural reform
17:23is necessary, but if you do structural
17:26reform, won't things get worse than
17:28they are now? They create an enemy. The
17:34world of YouTube is like that; they
17:36always create an enemy, saying the
17:37Ministry of Finance is to blame or
17:39China is at fault. That makes people
17:41feel relieved. It’s simple. Public
17:45opinion will turn out like this. And
17:52eventually, the inflation gets worse.
17:56The politics will start to change.
17:58Basically, they'll ask, "Why are things
18:01so expensive?""Do something about it.""
18:03Well, I guess we have no choice." This
18:05will lead to price controls, like with
18:07rice, saying it must be 3,000 yen or
18:09less. Or 5,000 yen. Price controls,
18:13then. "Workers are struggling, so force
18:16a wage hike.""Companies are making too
18:18much profit.""Limit their profits a
18:20little.""Pay out more benefits and
18:23subsidies." That's how it goes; it's
18:28like that now, but it will get much
18:29more intense. This is history. And
18:34isn't it like that right now? As I said
18:38at the beginning, the centrist
18:39coalition is ultimately talking about
18:41tax hikes. And the Takaichi
18:44administration is ultimately saying
18:45they'll expand fiscal spending further.
18:48They are competing in handing out money
18:50. That's what it comes down to. And
18:52these policies will not curb inflation.
18:55It's already the case now, but they
18:57will certainly accelerate it. This is
19:01how a vicious cycle is completed. That
19:03is what's coming next. The completion
19:05of the vicious cycle is what's next.
19:10Why isn't the right policy chosen? It
19:14just isn't chosen. Because the right
19:18policy during inflation is monetary
19:20tightening, right? And it means
19:23restoring fiscal discipline. And it
19:26means suppressing demand, doesn't it?
19:30Addressing supply constraints takes
19:32time, you see. Frankly speaking, these
19:38policies make things worse than they
19:39are now. Things will get even tougher
19:45than they are now. Only then will it
19:48recover. But people can't endure that.
19:53They simply can't endure it. In the
19:551980s, when Volcker appeared, as I said
19:58before, all the farmers went bust,
19:59didn't they? Because he set interest
20:02rates at 20%. That's why they drove
20:03tractors into the Fed headquarters, so
20:05that's the kind of feeling it is.
20:07That's impossible in Japan today. It
20:09cannot be done. However, during the
20:131974 oil shock, back when it shifted
20:15from the Tanaka cabinet to the Fukuda
20:17cabinet, they accepted austerity and
20:19the introduction of provisional
20:21gasoline taxes. Back then, in 1974,
20:26even with such severe inflation, the
20:28Japanese people accepted fiscal
20:30discipline. They realized it was
20:34critical, thinking that if things
20:35continued like that, Japan might
20:37collapse, so the public united as one.
20:41Back in 1974, they had come a long way
20:43from the postwar defeat, but they were
20:45in pain because of the sudden inflation
20:47. Back then, we accepted fiscal
20:51austerity. Yes, there was an era like
20:54that, too. Stock prices dropped from
20:565,000 to 3,300, but we accepted it.
20:59There was a time like that. Yes, but
21:00now we can no longer accept it.
21:02That’s why, as I said before, we are
21:04entering a vicious cycle. Now, I think
21:10a question arises for everyone here. "
21:15Mr. Asakura, you keep saying inflation
21:17is coming, but the actual figures don't
21:19show that, do they?" Uh, The official
21:26inflation rate is 3%, and isn't the
21:28core-core inflation rate—excluding
21:31energy and food—just 1.6%? "Isn't
21:35that what all the reflationists are
21:36saying?""The numbers are there, so why
21:38do you insist it's turning into
21:40inflation?" Yes, I think some of you
21:43might even feel I'm overthinking it. In
21:48short, what I want to say here is
21:54perceived inflation—the inflation we
21:56truly feel—and the CPI consumer
21:58prices are divergent. Also, consumer
22:09prices are a lagging indicator that
22:11rises during inflation. Are you with me
22:17? Last year, the Nikkei 225 went up—
22:22was it 26%? No, 34%, 26%—it's been
22:24skyrocketing over the last three years,
22:27and real estate in Tokyo went up 25%on
22:30average last year. Yes, food prices
22:33rose 15%to 20%, and rice has even
22:36doubled. Yet, the perceived inflation
22:41rate surveyed by the Bank of Japan—
22:43they do conduct this survey—is 16%.
22:46That’s the figure coming out.
22:49Meanwhile, Japan's CPI consumer price
22:52index for 2025 is officially announced
22:55at 3%. Well, 2.7%to 3%. So, where does
23:00this difference come from? Perceived
23:03inflation is so high that everyone here
23:05feels like we're in double-digit
23:07inflation. But official inflation is at
23:103%. That is the official figure. What
23:16is going on there? The CPI, or consumer
23:22prices, include food and energy, but
23:24they completely ignore asset prices
23:26like stocks and real estate. Increases
23:32in stock and real estate prices are not
23:34included in the consumer price index,
23:40so they will revise the prices.
23:44Companies, however, will always do it
23:45with a delay. Price hikes are
23:49implemented in stages. Another major
23:53point is that subsidies are distorting
23:54things. With electricity, gas, and
23:58gasoline subsidies, uh, nine times in a
24:01row, the gasoline price is kept at 155
24:03yen. Uh, while it's nearly 300 yen in
24:08Europe, this is distorting inflation.
24:14However, perceived inflation is a truly
24:17honest story. It is perceived inflation
24:20. In short, people are not living on
24:25the officially announced 3%inflation
24:27rate. They are living on the prices
24:32they actually pay. Aren't you living
24:35your lives based on the amounts you are
24:37paying? Prices you pay, that's food
24:41costs, right? Prices you pay, that's
24:43utility bills, isn't it? Prices you pay
24:46, that's rent, right? Prices you pay,
24:49that's dining out, services, and
24:51insurance. Are you following? All of
24:56these are seeing double-digit increases
24:58, you know. Everyone should know this.
25:00Doesn't everyone know that everything
25:02is seeing double-digit increases? In
25:05short, everything we buy is seeing
25:07double-digit increases. Look at this.
25:14Why are official inflation and reality
25:16different? Official CPI is 3%, but
25:19prices adjusted for living policies
25:21have a seasonal nature. There are
25:24subsidies, and, uh, perceived inflation
25:26is the amount actually paid. It's money
25:30. That's why people feel it. But this
25:33reflects behavior most accurately.
25:41Stocks and real estate are actually the
25:43best leading indicators; they are
25:44numbers that move first. This truly
25:51represents the cost of currency. So,
25:53while it's not reflected in CPI, this
25:55is the leading indicator. Things like
25:59rice, eggs, and daily necessities have
26:01really doubled or gone up by 20%,
26:03haven't they? And isn't the real value
26:07of the yen, its real effective exchange
26:09rate, falling lower and lower? It's a
26:11negative not seen in 50 years, hitting
26:13a 50-year low, isn't it? It's become
26:15worse than in the era of 360 yen to the
26:17dollar. These things......cannot be
26:21captured by the Consumer Price Index (
26:24CPI). In short, the CPI is not actually
26:27measuring price levels. We need to
26:32measure the speed at which the yen as a
26:34currency is depreciating. But it cannot
26:38be measured. Because it is slow. The
26:43CPI shows up like this, with a delay.
26:48And furthermore, it will definitely
26:53appear. The reflationists exclude
26:57energy and food, right? They ask, "
27:00Prices are up 1.6%, what inflation? Why
27:03is the BOJ raising prices? There's no
27:06inflation at all, is there?" They claim
27:08the numbers prove it. Saying it's 1.6%.
27:13That inflation isn't happening. "It's
27:15just coming from overseas," they say. "
27:17Why raise prices? Why is the BOJ
27:19raising them? Aren't they stupid?" they
27:21say. Yet in reality, used condominium
27:27prices rose 38%in one year. It's
27:32finally here, right? Suppose it becomes
27:34a real battle. "What are you talking
27:36about? Condominium prices rose 38%in a
27:38year, didn't they?" What would those
27:40reflationists say? "Uh,""Condo prices
27:44aren't in the consumer price index,
27:46obviously." Because they are excluded,
27:49this is how the conversation goes.
27:51That's how the conversation ends up.
27:54What does that mean? Housing prices
28:00have risen by 38%. However, as I just
28:06said, housing and stocks are not
28:08included in the CPI. But if you ask if
28:14housing is not in the CPI at all,
28:16that's not true. Rent and imputed rent
28:21account for the largest portion of the
28:23CPI. In other words, what this means is
28:31that the entry point for housing costs
28:33is skyrocketing. The entry point is
28:38skyrocketing. However, what the CPI
28:42looks at is the exit point. It's the
28:46existing contracts. So, that's why the
28:50CPI hasn't risen yet. It will rise in
28:54the official statistics from here on
28:56out. They don't understand this at all.
29:01"Since the numbers are like this, isn't
29:02it fine?" Don't say such stupid things.
29:05It means it will be rising from now on.
29:09It's something you should realize if
29:10you just think about it. In short, the
29:15CPI only looks at the exit, doesn't it?
29:20Look at the rising costs for apartment
29:22construction and repairs. As I just
29:24mentioned, even if you try to hire
29:26someone, nobody shows up. We’ve
29:29reached an era where money doesn't
29:31guarantee service; the system might
29:32already be collapsing. Uh, interest
29:37rates. They keep going up and up, and
29:40compared to before, you're now forced
29:42to pay nearly double. Whether it's for
29:45repairs or anything else, but the exit
29:47—what actually shows up in the CPI—
29:49is based on existing contracts. These
29:54are only reflected when the contracts
29:56are renewed. In short, they haven't
29:59been renewed yet. As a result, costs at
30:03the entry point are skyrocketing. But
30:07it takes time for that to reach the
30:09exit. So, when costs are exploding at
30:14the entry point, the impact on CPI is
30:16just delayed. It’s going to shoot up
30:21eventually. You can figure that out
30:22just by thinking about it, right? "It's
30:25only going up in Tokyo," you say. But
30:27that will spread throughout the entire
30:29country. Is that just the situation in
30:31Tokyo? Labor costs are soaring, and for
30:33spot contracts and estimates, prices
30:35are through the roof. However, even if
30:40new repair costs are double what they
30:42used to be, the CPI includes existing
30:44rents, maintenance contracts, and
30:45legacy agreements that remain unchanged
30:47. The point of actual pricing and the
30:52point of statistical aggregation are
30:54different. That's the only reason it
30:55doesn't look like it's rising. It takes
30:59time to be reflected in the average. In
31:03short, when inflation is accelerating,
31:05it takes a considerable amount of time
31:07for that state to be reflected in the
31:09CPI. That is the current situation. Let
31:18me share a personal story here. I'm in
31:24the Marunouchi Building, right? Well,
31:29Marunouchi is extremely popular, and we
31:31just happened to get in, but...It's
31:36truly filled with elite companies,
31:38including foreign firms; it’s a place
31:40that’s really hard to get into. Yes,
31:43Mitsubishi Estate, yes. It’s in the
31:49Marunouchi area, and there...at the end
31:53of last year...they sent us a paper, or
31:57rather, a notice. And do you know what
31:59they said? They wanted to raise the
32:02cleaning fees. It's just for cleaning,
32:07so we're talking about a few thousand
32:09yen, maybe 10,000 or 20,000 yen, so I
32:12felt like, "I guess I have no choice,"
32:14but that cleaning fee went up by 30%. I
32:17thought, "Whoa, 30%all at once?" but I
32:20guess it can't be helped since it's the
32:22era of rising costs. But I understand
32:27this. We're entering the next step. As
32:32for the next step, they already said
32:34last year that they'd talk to us about
32:36various things next year. What does
32:40that mean? It means they're going to
32:44start negotiating rent next year. So
32:51what does that imply? Marunouchi is
32:57Japan's cutting-edge area, with the
32:59most advanced buildings and companies.
33:07Even in Marunouchi, despite all this
33:09inflation, rent hikes haven't been
33:11implemented yet. There's no way the CPI
33:19is going up, is there? At this stage,
33:25the wave of rising rent hasn't even
33:27begun. The biggest component of the CPI
33:34is rent. It's only natural that the CPI
33:37is still low. Because the rent hikes
33:39haven't hit yet. In short, they just
33:42haven't finished writing the invoices
33:44yet. They are going to send the bills.
33:47They just haven't finished writing them
33:48. They're coming soon. Isn't that
33:51obvious? If you think about it this way
34:00, it's 1.6%. That's a ridiculous way of
34:02thinking, right? Isn't it obvious? Is
34:05it going to go up from here? Yeah, it's
34:07going to gradually become like this.
34:09Right now, it's Phase 1: rent is
34:11staying flat. The CPI is low, so
34:13experts say inflation has settled down.
34:18Right now, it's quiet. Silence. It's
34:20total silence. But Phase 2 is coming.
34:24It's finally the negotiation period.
34:25Negotiations are here. They won't say
34:27it'll happen right away. They'll
34:29negotiate before raising the price.
34:31They present terms during the
34:33negotiation. Management fees and
34:35maintenance costs have gone up, haven't
34:36they? The first wave of the era of
34:38rising costs has arrived. And when we
34:40restore things to their original state,
34:42this is what happens. At this point,
34:44perceived inflation will suddenly
34:46worsen first. And, Next, in Phase 3,
34:52new wages will be reflected. Then, it
34:55affects imputed rent. The services
34:58component of the CPI, the CPI services,
35:00will jump. How will people describe it?
35:06Suddenly, the CPI that everyone thought
35:08had calmed down will just spike. I
35:11wonder what people will say somewhere.
35:14"Inflation has suddenly reignited,"
35:16they'll say. That's what they'll say.
35:20But at that time, it's just that what
35:22had been prepared all along is finally
35:24showing up in the numbers. You already
35:27know the trend, don't you? Prices are
35:30going to keep going up and up. Since
35:34apartment prices are soaring, how could
35:36rents not follow suit? It’s only a
35:37matter of time before that happens. Why
35:39are they saying inflation is calming
35:41down? It's just for now, isn't it? The
35:43real rise is yet to come. Rising rents.
35:48The rise in rents in the 23 wards. Oh,
35:51the share of income it takes up has
35:52become this high. It’s reached 45%. I
35:55saw a report on it the other day.
35:57Average rents are constantly hitting
35:59new highs. They’ll keep rising. Yes,
36:01they’ll keep going up. Even yesterday
36:04, there was that terrible incident
36:06where someone said they couldn't afford
36:08to live there and resorted to stabbing
36:09someone, but the fact is that the trend
36:11of prices continuously rising is
36:13inevitable. This is the direction
36:16things are heading. Anyone can see that
36:19, right? It’s just beginning. And,
36:26let me say one more thing. Inflation
36:28that doesn't show up in numbers. Just
36:38because prices don't rise doesn't mean
36:42there is no inflation. Typical examples
36:46are the medical and educational fields.
36:55In areas like nursing care, medicine,
36:57and education—public sectors—they
36:59simply cannot raise their prices.
37:06Medical fees are fixed. Tuition costs
37:11are also fixed. Private tutoring is an
37:13exception, though. However, labor costs
37:18for those working in hospitals are
37:20rising steadily. And as hospital
37:25equipment gets more advanced, material
37:27costs are rising too. Yet, their
37:31revenue remains stagnant. If you're
37:36running a hospital, there's no way you
37:38can raise salaries. It leads to harsh
37:43working conditions. That’s the issue
37:45right now. Eventually, people quit
37:49their jobs in the medical field. In the
37:52end, supply decreases. This is becoming
37:55a social problem now. For teachers, the
37:58competition rate went from 20 or 30
38:00times down to just 3 times. In short,
38:03nobody wants to go into education
38:05anymore. Quality declines. The
38:06workforce shrinks. What does this mean?
38:13Ultimately, this leads to inflation
38:15that isn't reflected in prices. In
38:19short, a decline in quality. The
38:23quality of the same services we’ve
38:25had until now has no choice but to drop
38:27. Because there’s no one left to
38:28provide them. The quality of services
38:30will drop. Yes, there is a decline in
38:33quality. It will certainly happen.
38:36It’s happening right now. It's subtle
38:38, so it isn't reflected in the CPI.
38:41Isn't the price the same? Even if it
38:43shows up in the CPI, isn't the price
38:45the same? In reality, quality is
38:48dropping. Clearly, a problem is
38:50occurring. We only look at prices, so
38:53we don't realize inflation is actually
38:55happening. Even in areas like this. To
39:00summarize what we've said: Housing is
39:04rent-based, so it lags behind. It's
39:07coming next. It’s just that they
39:09prioritize existing contracts, which is
39:11why it looks this way. Fixed prices:
39:15medical, education, and nursing care.
39:17These can no longer be raised. So, an
39:19inflation of quality degradation is
39:21occurring. And this drop in quality
39:24doesn't appear in the index as I
39:25mentioned. So, for now, the numbers
39:30just look calm. However, in reality,
39:34real estate and condo prices are
39:36soaring, aren't they? As I said earlier
39:39, like the front page of the Nikkei,
39:41repairs, construction, and labor costs
39:43are immediate. They are reflected in
39:44the price. They are reflected
39:46immediately. Otherwise, they couldn't
39:47take any orders. And in healthcare and
39:49education, the front lines are
39:51collapsing, right? Starting with
39:52nursing, medical care, middle schools,
39:54and elementary schools—hospitals are
39:56already collapsing. It means the
39:59essentials of life across the country
40:01are definitely being cut. That’s why
40:04the perceived inflation moves ahead. As
40:08I mentioned, because of these factors,
40:10the CPI always reflects inflation with
40:12a delay when it accelerates. Ah, it’s
40:17just lagging behind right now. The
40:19numbers are simply delayed in catching
40:21up. I’d like to move on to the next
40:27topic. They say inflation is temporary,
40:32don't they? The government, the Bank of
40:38Japan, major economists, the media, and
40:40business leaders—it’s quite funny.
40:46The only one saying inflation will
40:48accelerate is Takeshi Asakura. Is that
40:50even possible? Everyone's actual
40:52experience shouldn't feel that way,
40:54right? Yet, only Asakura says inflation
40:56will accelerate. Everyone else,
40:58including the government, says it will
41:00settle down. The government and the
41:01Bank of Japan say it will settle. And
41:03just look at this. Look at all the
41:04famous analysts. They say, "I think
41:06inflation will calm down next year."
41:10Well, the media is saying it too.
41:13They're reporting it. Key executives,
41:17even on the front page of the Nikkei.
41:19Everyone is saying inflation will
41:21settle down. In short, almost everyone
41:25is sharing the same—shall we say—
41:27official stance that inflation will
41:29eventually subside. They are sharing a
41:36facade that it’s impossible for it
41:37not to. This is just a facade. It’s a
41:41facade. This part is important. Are you
41:45following? It’s a borrowed stance. If
41:51someone says like Asakura that
41:53inflation will get even worse from here
41:55. What happens if someone with
41:58influence says this officially? The
42:03public would become extremely anxious.
42:07Interest rates would spike, causing a
42:09fiscal crisis, and the impact would be
42:11felt in an instant. Just like that. In
42:17short, the government, the Bank of
42:19Japan, leading economists, major media,
42:21and business leaders...It’s fine for
42:28an outsider like Asakura, but for those
42:30who are standing at the forefront...Due
42:38to their position, they have no choice
42:40but to say inflation is transitory.
42:46This is...The structure of our world.
42:53Saying that inflation is transitory is
42:55a policy in itself. If you don't
42:59understand this, there's no point.
43:01It’s not the truth. It’s a policy.
43:06Of course, there are people like the
43:07reflationists who think it won't be a
43:09problem, but I don't think you all
43:11believe that. That’s why you’re
43:15here, and if you’re a serious
43:16business owner, you wouldn't think that
43:18. If you’re running a business in
43:21reality, you wouldn't think that.
43:22There’s no way you’d think that. Do
43:26you see? That’s why they keep saying
43:30it will calm down—it’s a facade.
43:33The official message. This current
43:36price increase is temporary. It will
43:38eventually settle down. After all,
43:41it’s primarily cost-push inflation. A
43:44wage-price spiral will begin. The
43:48underlying trend is stable, so it’s
43:50okay. This is...A facade, an official
43:55message. The real intention, you see?
44:01The Bank of Japan and the government
44:02are absolutely looking at the numbers.
44:06Then...They must know that supply
44:11shortages are completely structural.
44:15They know that labor shortages are
44:17irreversible and cannot be solved. They
44:20know the yen’s true strength is
44:21declining. Do they know that fiscal
44:25policy cannot be tightened? They know.
44:28Everyone knows. They know it’s
44:30dangerous. The real intention versus
44:33the facade. They absolutely cannot tell
44:40the truth. Why? Because the Bank of
44:44Japan...Because the Bank of Japan...
44:50Suppose Governor Ueda says that prices
44:52may not settle down. Or, suppose the
44:56top officials at the Bank of Japan,
45:01officially state that inflation might
45:03not come down. The moment they say that
45:09, it becomes the reality. In their case
45:14, if the BOJ or the government says
45:15prices might stay high or keep rising,
45:17it’s an official announcement, so
45:19companies will say, "Okay, let's raise
45:21prices immediately." And workers will
45:26say, "With prices rising, we need
45:28higher wages, or we're in trouble." And
45:31consumers will think, "Since the
45:32government said it, we’d better hoard
45:34goods and buy in bulk." The market will
45:36react with a currency sell-off and
45:37rising interest rates. I mean, isn't
45:39that obvious? It doesn’t happen yet
45:41because I’m the one saying it, but if
45:43the government does it, that’s
45:44exactly what will happen. In short, for
45:47a central bank, any statement that
45:49fuels inflation expectations is suicide
45:51. It is an act of suicide. That’s why
45:56they can never say it. It will settle
45:59down. It will settle down. It will
46:01settle down. It will settle down. They
46:04say it this way forever. Forever, I
46:06tell you. Because that is their job. So
46:10, what happens if the government says
46:12it? What if government officials say, "
46:16Well, inflation might continue"? "
46:19Inflation won't settle down." What
46:22would happen if they hypothetically
46:24said that? It’s the same as telling
46:27the public that their cost of living
46:28will stay high for a long time. And
46:31more importantly, "What are you talking
46:35about?""Doesn't that mean your policies
46:36are powerless?""Isn't it your
46:39responsibility?" Wouldn't it mean
46:43admitting that the government is the
46:44one at fault? It would mean admitting
46:47that they themselves are to blame.
46:49That’s why they can't say it either,
46:51so the government always says this: "
46:53Once we implement our measures, things
46:55will calm down.""We are working on it
46:57right now.""If you just endure it,
46:59things will get better.""It’s just
47:02temporary pain." See? They have no
47:06other choice but to say that. It’s
47:09not about logic. It’s a structural
47:13issue. So, both the government and the
47:17BOJ—listen—are they institutions
47:19that supply hope? "It's going to be
47:22okay.""Everything will be fine." They
47:26are just supplying everyone with a
47:27narrative that the future will be
47:28stable. They will never tell you the
47:34truth, especially during times of
47:36inflation. They can't. I think they
47:44feel this way deep down. Since they see
47:47the numbers, I believe they think
47:48inflation won't fully subside. I think
47:51the Bank of Japan feels that way. It
47:54will remain high while fluctuating.
47:57They could suppress prices if they
47:59tried, but it would destroy the economy
48:01and public finances, wouldn't it? The
48:03economy and finances would break. That
48:05is why they cannot slam on the brakes.
48:08They can't fully contain it. But they
48:12cannot admit that. That's just how it
48:16is. They cannot admit it. Do you
48:18understand? Historically speaking,
48:21there has never been a government that
48:22told the truth during inflation. They
48:27never reveal their true intentions. You
48:30have to understand this point. Take the
48:321970s, for example. In the US, South
48:35America, and Europe, every country
48:37always called inflation "transitory."
48:39And later—as is the case now—they
48:41say it lasted longer than expected.
48:44They say external factors piled up.
48:47Isn't that exactly what Governor Ueda
48:48said? "It was beyond our expectations."
48:51No, no, they explain it by pointing to
48:53overseas factors. That’s exactly
48:56what's happening now, isn't it? It’s
48:59just going to continue. It’s
49:04interesting, isn't it? That’s why,
49:08you know, this January 1st issue, I
49:12wondered how the Nikkei survey of top
49:14executives would turn out, and I was
49:16honestly a bit surprised. I thought, "
49:18This is incredible." Real growth of 0.8
49:21%is fine, but an inflation rate of 1.9%
49:24? That’s the same as the Bank of
49:27Japan. It’s exactly the same as the
49:29Bank of Japan. This is just an average,
49:31though. They’re saying the yen will
49:34strengthen to 146. I said this earlier.
49:41Executives—and many of you are
49:43executives—are on the front lines.
49:46They know. Deep down, they know
49:50inflation won't calm down or settle
49:52easily. You all think so, too. The only
49:56ones who don't think so are completely
49:58out of touch with reality. The
50:00reflationist scholars. They have
50:04effectively hijacked YouTube and the
50:06government, but they genuinely believe
50:07it will subside. They are beyond
50:11consideration. They don't understand
50:14reality. They don't understand the
50:16market. They only know the theory. But
50:19business owners understand. Perhaps
50:23every manager has a public face saying
50:25inflation will settle down. The yen's
50:29weakness will stabilize. Risks are
50:31geopolitical factors. They are overseas
50:33factors. They say that, but they have a
50:37hidden face because they truly grasp
50:39the reality. Internally, they are
50:45telling people to push for price
50:47pass-throughs, raise prices, and keep
50:49passing costs on. Yes, they wrote 146
50:52yen for the exchange rate, but they
50:55tell them to build a structure that can
50:57survive 160 or 170 yen. So, when making
51:02plans, listen: prices will keep rising
51:04every year from now on. Labor costs
51:06will likely rise every year, too. They
51:08make plans based on that premise, and
51:10those instructions are certainly
51:12correct. In short, While their official
51:18public comments align with the
51:19government, their actions are entirely
51:21built on the assumption of continued
51:23inflation and a long-term weak yen. I
51:26think there is no doubt about this.
51:28Because they are pragmatic. Now, the
51:33Nikkei. This is also generally 60,000
51:37yen, or, well, 50,000 to 60,000 yen. It
51:40really is just the same thing.
51:42There’s no point in looking, but I
51:44figured, "Yeah, it's about this much."
51:46Because it's always the same. In short,
51:48it’s just writing down the public
51:50sentiment as it is. Yes, the world
51:52thinks it’s around 55,000 yen, or
51:55maybe 50,000, or rising to 60,000 yen,
51:57but this was a surprise. As I just said
52:01, the inflation rate is at most 2.1%
52:03even at the highest point. Moreover,
52:08the big three banks or Mitsui say 1.5%
52:11or 1.6%—is that for real? Do they
52:17seriously think that? This is the
52:21official announcement. There is a gap
52:23with the official announcement. The
52:26question is where their true intentions
52:28lie. Right. Likewise. What they are
52:37thinking—the number one thing they
52:39are thinking—is certain. I think what
52:41they are most concerned about is the
52:43possibility that high prices may become
52:44impossible to contain. And, well, they
52:47are also worried about this. I think
52:49they are worried that if Japan's
52:50finances continue like this, it will be
52:52bad. And I think they are worried that
52:55the labor shortage is so severe that
52:56nothing can be done about it. But,
53:00regarding the question of what the risk
53:02factors are, not a single word was
53:03mentioned. They say the only risk
53:08factors are geopolitical. They claim
53:10it’s just overseas factors. In short,
53:13if they were to state the real risks,
53:15it would turn into a criticism of the
53:17government and the Bank of Japan. So
53:19they can't say it. Since they represent
53:25organizations and this is an annual,
53:27high-profile project by the Nikkei
53:28newspaper, they prioritize order over
53:30honesty and the truth. This is the
53:38current state of Japan. At a glance, it
53:44might look like I, Asakura, am the only
53:46outsider talking about inflation, but
53:48in reality, rational people don't think
53:50that way. Just like all of you, people
53:55intuitively know something is wrong and
53:57that inflation isn't stopping, but
53:59Japanese society as a whole will never
54:01bring this to the surface. This is the
54:05interesting part. Well, not "
54:07interesting" so much as just the way
54:09things are—you can tell if you just
54:11think about it. It’s a matter of true
54:13intentions versus public posturing, but
54:15in the real world, taxi fares,
54:17construction costs, dining out, rent,
54:19and labor costs are all rising well
54:21beyond 2%, often by double digits. See,
54:23you understand, don't you? If you're
54:25working, if you're actually out there
54:27working, you see the numbers and think,
54:29"3%? Don't mess with me." Business
54:31owners are very much aware of
54:32accelerating inflation. Because they
54:33are there on the front lines. They
54:34aren't like academics. They know
54:36because they are in the field. They
54:37know something is off. Yes, they are
54:39aware of it. And well...They know
54:44it’s not going back to 2%. They
54:46definitely feel that. No one is making
54:49plans based on the assumption that
54:51procurement costs, labor costs,
54:53logistics, construction, or dining
54:55expenses will go down. Someone might
54:57say, "Well, the government is
54:59predicting 2%.""That's just an average,
55:02isn't it?" they'd say. "In reality,
55:04costs are up 5%to 10%, aren't they?""
55:06How could we build a plan on that?"
55:08That is likely what they are saying. "
55:11What about the yen? Won't it become
55:13stronger?""Did you lower your prices
55:15just because the yen got stronger?"
55:16They would never do such a thing. They
55:19know things are getting dangerous. They
55:21are prepared for the fact that the weak
55:23yen is becoming the new normal rather
55:24than an anomaly. Because of that. The
55:31yen doesn't control inflation. Raising
55:37rates slowly is a minor move, and the
55:39conflict with fiscal policy is too
55:41great. The BOJ...Is not there to stop
55:49prices. It only delays the chaos. I
55:52know that. Business owners...Raising
55:56wages. "No, our company is at 10%.""
55:59We're at 5%.""Our company, we rely on
56:02everyone working for us, you see." That
56:07is...Not out of goodwill, is it? They
56:13do it because they know they have to
56:15raise wages to survive. People won't
56:19join. They quit right away. If you
56:21don't raise wages, you'll go under.
56:22It's dangerous. That's why they're
56:25raising them by 5%or 10%. They are
56:28doing it to survive. Not out of the
56:31kindness of their hearts. We know we
56:33can't go back to a world of falling
56:35prices. So, companies aren't designing
56:37their future on the premise of falling
56:39stock prices. This is the reality for
56:43business owners. Yet...Publicly, they
56:47only state the official line. And this
56:54...Is the decisive...Root of the
57:01problem. Everyone talks in official
57:06platitudes. Everyone knows the truth,
57:09but they only speak the official line.
57:13That’s why the gap with reality keeps
57:15widening and widening. It’s widening
57:19beyond repair. That’s why stock
57:22prices surge as they try to get closer
57:24to reality. That’s why the yen keeps
57:27weakening as it tries to get closer to
57:29reality. Asset values across the board
57:31are surging. They are closing in on
57:33reality. This isn't about official
57:34lines; it's looking at reality. The
57:36market is reality. It’s looking at
57:38the truth. It’s bursting open. They
57:44say things will settle down, but prices
57:46just run wild without warning. And they
57:49can't explain it. It's inexplicable,
57:53because they only spout official lines,
57:55when the truth is inflation will last.
57:58The yen won't stop falling. Well, this
58:00is impossible. Monetary policy has its
58:02limits, doesn't it? Business owners
58:06understand this. But they can't speak
58:10the truth. They’re too scared to say
58:15it, so it manifests in extreme ways.
58:19That's why they can't speak their true
58:21intentions. And that is why the market
58:23just blows up. It adjusts, and then it
58:26just shoots right up. "Mr. Asakura,
58:32you're so accurate." You might say I
58:34have a sharp eye, but there are surely
58:36many people who have the same intuition
58:38as I do. But they can't say it. They
58:44are in a position where they can never
58:46say it. I'm in a position where I can
58:48speak, so I'm just saying what I want
58:49to say. If you belonged to an
58:51organization, you couldn't say these
58:53things. Yeah, if you were a more
58:54influential person, you couldn't say it
58:56. Yes, I'm in a free position to say
58:58what I like, so I'm saying it. I am
59:00able to say it. They cannot say the
59:02truth. Therefore, this—you have to
59:09understand the difference in positions.
59:11The positions are different. In short,
59:14the country, the Bank of Japan, and the
59:16government are speaking from the
59:18perspective of running a nation.
59:21Fundamentally, they can't let a panic
59:23happen. Yes, it's managing a country
59:26where they can't tell the truth. But on
59:30your personal side, you have to protect
59:32your own life and assets. On the
59:35individual side, in short, the Bank of
59:37Japan, the government, and individuals
59:39have different goals. The Bank of Japan
59:42and the government are in a position to
59:43protect the country. You are in a
59:45position to protect yourselves. That's
59:46why the conclusions are different. So,
59:49the Bank of Japan and government are to
59:50protect the nation, while individuals
59:52are to protect themselves; it can't be
59:54the same answer. It won't result in the
59:56same answer. This is what reality is.
59:58It would be strange if it were the same
1:00:00answer. Therefore, as to whether the
1:00:06words of the Bank of Japan or the
1:00:07government are correct, blindly
1:00:11believing them is pointless. You have
1:00:14to think for yourself, or it's a
1:00:16non-starter. Yeah, I mean, if inflation
1:00:18is temporary, why are wages rising?
1:00:20Every year. Why aren't prices going
1:00:24down? Why isn't the labor shortage
1:00:27being resolved if inflation is
1:00:29temporary? Why doesn't the yen's
1:00:31depreciation stop? Why do stocks and
1:00:34condos keep rising in price so
1:00:36abnormally? You have to think for
1:00:38yourself. If you don't think for
1:00:41yourself, you won't see the right
1:00:43answer. Knowing the other side of the
1:00:46global economy. It means knowing the
1:00:49truth. At my Asakura-style seminars,
1:00:54I’ll be talking all about the hottest
1:00:56topics in politics and the economy,
1:00:58giving it my absolute all, so please
1:00:59come and have a listen. I’ve already
1:01:05posted details about the seminars on my
1:01:07website, so if you take a look and like
1:01:09what you see, please come join us and
1:01:10put it to use in your own business and
1:01:12investments. I’ll be waiting for you.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of なぜインフレは止められない＜早めに行動した者のみ生き残る＞2026年1月17日開催ASAKURA経済セミナーより by 朝倉慶のASK1, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 7,934 words across 1,254 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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