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2023 ICT Mentorship - ICT Silver Bullet Time Based Trading Model — Transcript

by The Inner Circle Trader · 3,122 words · 445 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:06well welcome back books all right so
0:09we're going to be talking about my ICT
0:11Silver Bullet trade setup which is a
0:13time-based algorithmic trading model for
0:16all asset
0:22classes all right before I get into it
0:25uh let's discuss ticks points and Pips
0:29and the relationship to Forex to
0:33futures for an
0:36ICT Silver Bullet trade and the minimum
0:40trade framework should be 10 points or
0:4440 ticks for index futures or
0:48indices the minimum trade framework
0:51should be 15 Pips for Forex payers for
0:55Forex
0:56Traders now an amplification of that is
1:00this framework is the best case price
1:03delivery that you expect to see not
1:05underscore not your actual trade entry
1:08to exit range so in other words if
1:13everything were to be perfect and you're
1:15not trying to be perfect with your entry
1:17you're not trying to be perfect with
1:18your
1:19exit if the entirety of the move that
1:22you foresee is likely to unfold next in
1:25whatever asset class you're
1:27trading that range
1:30is the
1:31framework but you're going to be looking
1:33for a trade within that framework that
1:36doesn't demand you to have the highest
1:38degree of Entry Precision or exit
1:40Precision over time you'll get better
1:42with both of those entry and exit but
1:45now using a model you want to have
1:47something that's a little bit more
1:48forgiving so for index Futures if you're
1:52trading indices the minimum framework is
1:55it has to at least offer the potential
1:58for 10 points or 10 handles which is
2:01equivalent to 4 tick the same would be
2:04said for Forex the framework should be a
2:07minimum of 15 Pips for the pair you're
2:11trying to trade so if you can't work out
2:13a range
2:14move at least 15 Pips the trade is
2:18probably not high probability it would
2:20be better suited to be left alone and
2:22let it pass or look look
2:24elsewhere 10 handles for
2:27indices is the same to me as 20 Pips in
2:30Forex five handles for indices is the
2:33same to me as 10 Pips in Forex so many
2:36times with my tweets or comments in my
2:39videos and whatnot uh folks that reach
2:42out to me through trading view
2:44little messaging system they have there
2:47um I ignore majority of everyone that
2:49sends me messages trading I just get too
2:51many of them
2:53and the question keeps popping up
2:55recently
2:57is if I'm teaching predominantly
2:59presently at the time in 2023 in the
3:02YouTube mentorship which is Free by the
3:05way the question is if I'm looking for
3:08five handles of price movement in the E
3:11mini S&P what would that translate for
3:14those that are trading forx U that would
3:17be the equivalent of 10
3:20Pips if I'm looking for 10 Handles in
3:24indices or trading stock index features
3:27uh if you're a Forex Trader you would be
3:28looking for the equiv of 20 Pips in your
3:31Forex pair so that way there's the the
3:34relationship between the two these are
3:36essential Frameworks to what I
3:39deem high probability ICT silverbolt
3:42trade
3:47setups all right so let's talk about
3:49this is really the gem of this
3:52presentation really uh types of ICT
3:55Silver Bullet setups now the framework
3:58for many ICT Silver Bullet setups are as
4:00follows but they're not limited
4:02to previous day high or low draw on
4:06liquidity
4:08meaning yesterday's high if we're
4:10bullish there's going to be buy stops or
4:12buy side liquidity resting above that we
4:14would be looking for a run to previous
4:16day's high that expansion is the draw in
4:19liquidity for buy side uh vice versa if
4:22we are bearish we're expecting lower
4:25prices throughout the week and we see
4:28the previous days low as having sells
4:32side liquidity or self stops below it so
4:35we would look for potential setups that
4:36would expand down into that
4:39liquidity previous session highs and
4:42lows as draws on liquidity meaning that
4:46let's say you're sitting down in front
4:47of the charts and it's the am session in
4:50New York you would look at the high end
4:52or low of the London session that just
4:54passed and looked to a run on liquidity
4:58or retest of those old lows or
5:01highs previous weekly high or low as a
5:05draw in liquidity if we're bullish we
5:06would look for a run above the previous
5:08week's high or if we bearish we would
5:11look for a run below the previous week's
5:13low another would be returning to a
5:17current or old new week opening Gap so
5:21that would be treated as a draw on
5:23liquidity or an expansion away from the
5:26current or old new week opening Gap
5:31and a classic ICT optimal trade entry
5:34which has been for the longest time
5:36while doing this YouTube channel that's
5:38always been the classic Flagship pattern
5:40but now we've seen many more models and
5:43approaches so it can't be referred to as
5:46the flagship pattern anymore I think the
5:49fair value Gap has uh taken the throne
5:51there Confluence of the 2022 ICT
5:55mentorship YouTube model which I taught
5:57for free on this YouTube channel uh me
5:59meaning that your draw on liquidity
6:01could be a inefficiency above the
6:03marketplace when we're bullish or a
6:05inefficiency below the price when we're
6:08bearish which means that if we're
6:09bearish we could be aiming for a
6:12discount buy c b sell sign efficiency or
6:14some measure of fair value Gap that
6:16would be below current price action that
6:18would be your draw when bearish or if
6:20you're bullish you would be looking for
6:22a inefficiency above current price
6:24action which would be many times in the
6:26form of a civvy or sell side imbalance
6:28buy s def efficiency or variant of fair
6:31value Gap above current price action so
6:33you can treat that or as I mentioned all
6:35the previous ones above number seven
6:38here all of them being equally available
6:41in terms of probability if it is in the
6:44Market at the time not all of these are
6:46going to be a factor you there will be
6:49times where the previous week's High has
6:52already been
6:53rated that morning and looking at it
6:57again may not be the ideal scenario so
6:59it might require you to look at a higher
7:01time frame liquidity pool or
7:04inefficiency above price if you know if
7:06you're if you're bullish so I could list
7:09a myriad of different scenarios but I
7:11think this list is good enough to give
7:15the students of my YouTube channel a
7:17great deal
7:20of latitude so that way you can look at
7:23the potential for any one of these
7:25situations not all of them will
7:28exist on any given day not all of these
7:31will be in the charts but most days one
7:34of these criteria will be in play don't
7:37take my word before I go back through
7:38your price action you'll see what I'm
7:40saying here is in fact
7:42truth obviously the main emphasis is
7:45determining the next most likely draw in
7:48the price action so where is Price
7:50likely to go to next that's the number
7:52one goal for all of my students is to
7:54focus on that skill set first because
7:56all the entries and the exens and such
7:59that is the least important thing
8:01because if you don't know where price is
8:02trying to go to from the time you're
8:04sitting in looking at your charts
8:06whatever anoun this concept you use is
8:08probably going to fail
8:13you all right let's talk about our first
8:16ICT Silver Bullet setup and the time at
8:18which it forms now again this is a Time
8:21based model that means these things are
8:26linked to a specific 60-minute interval
8:30or window in time every single trading
8:33day this pattern will form it may not be
8:36in the Forex Peri that you're trading it
8:38may not be in the Futures Contract that
8:41you're trading it may not be in the
8:44asset that you specifically looking at
8:47but it does form every single
8:50day first setup time is 3:00 a.m. to
8:544:00 a.m. now we're always referring to
8:57New York local time so whenever ever I'm
8:59referring to a specific time whether it
9:01be a window of time or a very specific
9:03time of the day you have to have your
9:06charts calibrated to New York local time
9:09wherever that is whenever that is in
9:11your area if we're observing daylight
9:14savings time then you observe Daylight
9:17Saving signs that way it removes all the
9:18uncertainty the confusion whatever it is
9:20in New York that local time that's what
9:23you're using when you're
9:24charting this is the London open Silver
9:27Bullet
9:31so what we're looking for is a classic
9:34ICT fair value Gap the form between 3:00
9:38a.m. and 400 a.m. New York local
9:41time
9:43the factor that which you are going to
9:47lean heavily on is the skill set of
9:49knowing where price is going to go to
9:52okay and it's not necessarily the bias
9:56you just predominantly have to consider
9:59where the next draw on liquidity is is
10:01it going to go above the marketplace for
10:03buy stops or trade into inefficiency
10:06above current price action if you're
10:07bullish in this case the market was
10:10bearish it was looking to go lower and
10:12there was an obvious sell-side liquidity
10:13pool resting below that old swing low
10:16and between 3:00 and 4 the market
10:19created a fair value
10:21Gap we had a shift in Market structure
10:24below this low here so this is your
10:26classic what optimal trade
10:30entry fair value Gap here the market
10:33shows the willingness to support this
10:35idea with the bodies staying inside that
10:38Gap see that now at 4:00 a.m. it does
10:41pump one more time just above it but
10:44that's fine it would have never sto you
10:46out with the rules I teach with all of
10:48my models here especially the op trade
10:51entry the idea for this would be to look
10:54for a minimum of what Market is this
10:57it's a Futures Contract set means does
10:59it offer the potential for 10 handles so
11:03from
11:04here down to here trading below this low
11:09not just to the low but to it and
11:11through it so it's it's reasonable to
11:14anticipate a potential run of 10 handles
11:18we don't require that but going short
11:20inside that fair value Gap the formation
11:23of the ICT Silver Bullet the entry is
11:27taken inside of that 60-minute window
11:30between 3:00 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. it does
11:33not mean that the trade is entered and
11:35is
11:36exited in the same 60-minute window in
11:39other words your trade many times will
11:41be held over the 4:00 hour and into 5:00
11:45in the morning and maybe even rolling
11:47over into the New York session opening
11:50at 7 8:00 New York local time but in
11:53this instance we would be aiming for
11:55this low and the cell side liqu resting
11:57below it so does it offer from this
11:59entry here down to here at least five
12:02handles for you to book in
12:05profit it does so the framework was
12:09could it get to 10 it could do 10 we
12:11don't require that shorting into the
12:14fair value Gap covering at the old
12:17low allows for at least five handles and
12:22that's what the IC Silver Bullet is this
12:24is my actual model for my son Cameron
12:32all right the second one in our
12:35continuing list of I Silver Bullet
12:38setups is the am session now this one is
12:41focusing on the 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
12:44always New York local time and let's
12:46take a closer look at this one
12:50now okay so we are looking at the E mini
12:53S&P once more and the idea is between
12:5710:00 a.m. New York local time and 11:
12:59a.m. we wait for when the Market's
13:04bearish relative equal lows they sell
13:06side resting below that we have a fair
13:08value Gap bearish fair value Gap it
13:10trades up into it between 10:00 and 11
13:12o' we can sell short there does it offer
13:1510 handles well from 4146 or thereabouts
13:19to 4136 that range doesn't even get us
13:22down into this low let alone below that
13:24one so it obviously meets the criteria
13:28of a minimum of 10 Handles in framework
13:31it does not mean you're trying to get 10
13:33handles it just means that it offers 10
13:35handles so going short here collecting
13:39five handles that could have been done
13:41inside of the scope of that 60-minute
13:43window not that you're trying to do that
13:45as I mentioned briefly moments ago the
13:47trade is many times held in duration
13:49longer than the window that the
13:52framework and entry is derived from so
13:56it's not a in and out within the same
13:58hour
13:59it means that you're looking for the
14:01setup to form to get you into the trade
14:03within the scope of 10:00 to 11 o' near
14:07y local
14:11time all right and finally we have our
14:14last ICT Silver Bullet here which is
14:16framed on 2:00 p.m. to 300
14:19p.m. New York local time and this is the
14:23PM session ICT Silver Bullet
14:26setup in this one here we can see that
14:29we traded down into a higher time frame
14:3115minute discount fair value Gap and
14:34you're encouraged to go into your charts
14:36and see that is in fact what we have
14:38here Market trades down into it shifts
14:41higher a swing has been broken to the
14:43upside so we have a shift in Market
14:45structure and a fair value Gap so any
14:48retracements back down into that look at
14:50the bodies staying inside that the Wicks
14:52do the damage but the body's telling you
14:54the narrative the story is told by the
14:56bodies so it's telling you it's
14:58respecting this body balance efficiency
15:00or fair value Gap going into 2:00 we
15:04rallied and we created a small little
15:05fair value Gap there the market drops
15:07down into that before taking out the
15:09relative equal highs buy side liquidity
15:11and or returning back to a premium sell
15:14side and balance buy side and efficiency
15:15or fair value Gap that would be above
15:17the market here and here so if it's
15:20going to Rally here the framework could
15:23be on the optimal trade entry here and
15:26taking the first fair value Gap that
15:27forms inside of and reprices to between
15:312:00 and 3:00 that's happening right
15:34there so from here all the way up to
15:38here does that offer 10 handles yes it's
15:40actually offering 12 or more so this
15:42entry here is a high probability
15:45condition that lends well to a run into
15:48inefficiency in the
15:50premium and to take bide out as well so
15:54that is a very handsome run there and
15:56trading between 2:00 and 3:00 now some
15:59closing
16:01thoughts if you're new to my channel and
16:04you're seeing this you don't have enough
16:07to trade this pattern so you have to
16:09back test it while you're learning how
16:10to reprice action and determine where
16:13the next draw on liquidity is going to
16:14be for the next price swing for whatever
16:18asset class you're trading so don't be
16:21discouraged if it seems like it's this
16:22Cherry Picked and there it is because I
16:24actually traded many of these types of
16:26setups either with calling it out on
16:29Twitter or mentioning it in passing
16:32while actually doing executions and
16:34recording it so these patterns these
16:37things form and I called a few of them
16:40real time on Twitter last week and many
16:42of you much to my uh disapproval because
16:46I don't like when you take the setups as
16:50a trade setup signal I don't want you to
16:52view it like that but many of the
16:54followers on my Twitter feed actually
16:56showed that they took the trade I called
16:58out with using Silver Bullet so the
17:01pattern works it's highly highly
17:03consistent it's extremely high
17:05probability when you have all these
17:06factors in mind and they are present in
17:09price action it gives you a rule-based
17:11idea to look for a time-based model so
17:15time and price is being utilized here
17:17which is where the focus of my analysis
17:20Concepts and teaching as a mentor
17:21teaching my students how to find
17:22something that repeats you can't get
17:24anything better than having a specific
17:2660-minute window of opportunity that
17:29forms every single trading day every
17:31single trading day one of these setups
17:33are going to form now if you don't have
17:37a plethora of markets to follow ideally
17:40one or two at best while you're first
17:42learning how to do it even if you grow
17:44to a point of Interest where you have a
17:45lot of markets that you're traing a lot
17:47of pairs or a lot of Futures markets and
17:49such uh you'll find that over time the
17:52longer your career will be you'll your
17:54list will will reduce down to one or two
17:56at worst maybe three if you want to be a
17:58deviant
17:59but my advice is for you to be a
18:01specialist try to focus on one market
18:03because if you can do that one of these
18:07specific ICT Silver Bullet setups will
18:09form every single day meaning that if
18:12you just follow One Market just one
18:14market you can get your setups there you
18:16can make your bread and butter you can
18:17make your ends meat you'll have losing
18:20trades okay it's going to happen but by
18:22far and large you can do things with one
18:24market and if you don't get this set up
18:26in London you wait for it in the AM
18:28session if you don't get it there you
18:29wait for it in the PM session but every
18:31single Market every single trading day
18:33will offer one of these so you have to
18:36be disciplined you have to focus and
18:38look for these ideas to form in price
18:40action and should you do that you'll
18:43need to look at nothing further than
18:45this you don't need to go into any other
18:47models you don't need to go into any
18:48other teachings you don't have to come
18:50back to my YouTube channel you'll never
18:51have to do any of that stuff anymore
18:53because you be independently minded and
18:56your analysis will be and Uniquely Yours
18:59you won't have to look at external
19:00sources like me or someone else to
19:02provide that to you you'll trust
19:04yourself which is a very empowering
19:05state of mind and that's always been my
19:07Target and goal with all of my students
19:11so hopefully you found this one
19:12insightful and until I'll talk to you
19:13next time be safe

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