Так было только перед 2000 и 2008. И СЕЙЧАС — Transcript

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1. 0:00Look at this chart. This is the Korean
2. 0:02stock market, also known as KOSPI. In
3. 0:05six months, it nearly doubled and hit a
4. 0:07record high in June, then plummeted by
5. 0:0944%.
6. 0:11The news about this has long since faded
7. 0:13, but history has shown twice how this
8. 0:15ends.
9. 0:17Both times, the American market fell
10. 0:19right after. And now there are already
11. 0:22two warning signs.
12. 0:24In China, shares of AI-related companies
13. 0:26dropped by 48%in less than 4 months.
14. 0:30And in October, it reached the US as
15. 0:32well.
16. 0:32Chipmaker stocks fell by 17%in a single
17. 0:35month.
18. 0:36Meanwhile, the overall market lost just
19. 0:38over 1%.
20. 0:40And now, one word is echoing everywhere
21. 0:43: bubble. No one knows when the market
22. 0:45will fall. But there are signs that can
23. 0:48help us understand where it's headed.
24. 0:50Let’s break them down and decide. Is it
25. 0:52a bubble or not?
26. 0:54The growth of the Korean market was
27. 0:57driven by Samsung and SK Hynix, memory
28. 1:00manufacturers for AI, which grew by 198
29. 1:03%and 341%respectively in six months.
30. 1:06Ordinary Koreans saw this growth and
31. 1:08wanted to get in on it. Many bought
32. 1:09stocks on margin, borrowing money from
33. 1:11brokers using those same shares as
34. 1:13collateral. As long as the market was
35. 1:15rising, this multiplied profits.
36. 1:17In June, such debt hit a record high,
37. 1:19while major foreign funds were selling
38. 1:21during that time.
39. 1:22In six months, they sold nearly $ 100
40. 1:25billion worth of Korean stocks.
41. 1:27At the end of June, the market turned,
42. 1:29and in July, the Central Bank of Korea
43. 1:31raised interest rates for the first time
44. 1:33in 3 years.
45. 1:34A month later, they raised it again, and
46. 1:37the decline accelerated. When stock
47. 1:39prices drop, the broker demands the debt
48. 1:41be repaid. This is called a margin call
49. 1:43.
50. 1:44If you don't have the money, they sell
51. 1:46your shares themselves, which pushes the
52. 1:48market even lower. This happened to more
53. 1:50than a million people. So what is the
54. 1:52point of all this?
55. 1:54In early 2000, the Korean market started
56. 1:56to fall, and a couple of months later,
57. 1:58the American market followed.
58. 2:00The same thing happened in 2021. Korea
59. 2:03collapsed in the summer, and America
60. 2:05followed six months later. How exactly
61. 2:07are they connected? Miners used to take
62. 2:10a canary into the mine with them. If the
63. 2:12bird started choking, it meant there was
64. 2:15gas and it was time to leave. Korea is
65. 2:17considered a similar canary for the
66. 2:19global economy. Its market reacts first
67. 2:22, followed by the American one. And this
68. 2:25year, Korea fell first again.
69. 2:28Two cases are not enough to call it a
70. 2:30rule, but I am now watching this signal
71. 2:32very closely.
72. 2:34Now for China, which has its own index
73. 2:37and chip companies.
74. 2:39Since July, these companies have lost $
75. 2:42580 billion in value.
76. 2:44Beijing poured $ 19 billion into the
77. 2:46market to stop the collapse.
78. 2:47>> He was headed for success, but it didn't
79. 2:49work out—just bad luck.
80. 2:51>> At their peak, the valuation of these
81. 2:53companies reached 250, now after the
82. 2:55fall it's around 100, while America's
83. 2:57largest tech companies are around thirty
84. 2:59. That means even after the crash,
85. 3:01Chinese companies are valued three times
86. 3:03higher than American ones, and at the
87. 3:05peak, the difference was eightfold.
88. 3:08This is what a real bubble looks like.
89. 3:10America hasn't reached that point.
90. 3:13If you find this analysis helpful,
91. 3:15subscribe to the channel.
92. 3:17What, then, are we seeing in the US
93. 3:19market?
94. 3:21Americans are also buying stocks on
95. 3:24margin, and they currently owe brokers
96. 3:261.5 trillion dollars.
97. 3:28By May, this amount had grown by 54%in
98. 3:31just one year. It has grown faster only
99. 3:34three times in the last 30 years. In
100. 3:362000, 2007, and 2021. After each one,
101. 3:41the market crashed. Now, the other side
102. 3:43of the coin. Before those crashes, debt
103. 3:46grew by an average of 72%per year.
104. 3:49Now, even at the peak, it was 54%, and
105. 3:51by September, the growth slowed to 31%.
106. 3:56Therefore, it is too early to say that
107. 3:57debt is about to crash the market. But
108. 3:59there is one detail.
109. 4:01Over the same 30 years, growth above 50
110. 4:04%per year occurred only before market
111. 4:06crashes.
112. 4:08So there is no crisis yet, but this is
113. 4:10one sign that it might be near.
114. 4:13The second reason for the Korean crash
115. 4:15is the rate hike. First, Korea raised
116. 4:17the rate, and two months later, America
117. 4:20followed suit for the first time in 3
118. 4:22years. And the market is expecting
119. 4:24another hike as early as December.
120. 4:28But on the other hand, in the summer of
121. 4:301999, America also started raising rates
122. 4:33, and tech companies grew for another 9
123. 4:35months after that, nearly doubling in
124. 4:37value.
125. 4:39The bubble only burst in the spring of
126. 4:412000, so the rate doesn't hit the market
127. 4:44immediately, but it does hit.
128. 4:46Now let's see if the American market is
129. 4:48expensive right now. Imagine that you
130. 4:50are buying all the companies at once.
131. 4:53For such a purchase to pay off, it would
132. 4:56currently take 41 years, whereas the
133. 4:59average since 1990 is about 26 years.
134. 5:03This means the market is currently about
135. 5:04one and a half times more expensive than
136. 5:06usual.
137. 5:07The market was this expensive only once
138. 5:09, at the peak of the dot-com bubble in
139. 5:111999.
140. 5:13But there is another way to calculate it
141. 5:14. Take the profit that companies expect
142. 5:17next year. Then it turns out to be about
143. 5:1919 years. And by this calculation, it is
144. 5:22a normal level. So it all comes down to
145. 5:25one thing: whether companies will meet
146. 5:27profit expectations.
147. 5:29And this largely depends on whether the
148. 5:31huge money invested in AI will pay off.
149. 5:34Four giants: Google, Amazon, Microsoft,
150. 5:37and Meta are building data centers. In
151. 5:402023, they spent about 150 billion
152. 5:43dollars on this. In 2024 it was 226, and
153. 5:47in 2025 it's 410.
154. 5:49This year it’s about 730, and analysts
155. 5:53expect 935 billion next year. The sums
156. 5:56are growing every year, but the speed of
157. 5:57growth is falling. For the giants
158. 5:59themselves, this is good. Spending,
159. 6:01while growing, is no longer eating up
160. 6:03their cash as quickly. But for chip
161. 6:05manufacturers, it is bad, because this
162. 6:07spending is their revenue. Even by
163. 6:09bolder forecasts, the speed of growth is
164. 6:12still falling. Chocolate. I want
165. 6:14chocolate too.
166. 6:17What worries me most is that data
167. 6:19centers are increasingly being built on
168. 6:21debt. In the first three quarters of
169. 6:24this year, AI-related companies borrowed
170. 6:27466 billion dollars. Last year, during
171. 6:30the same period, it was 101 billion.
172. 6:32Take CoreWeave, for example. Their debt
173. 6:34is around 50 billion dollars, and their
174. 6:37bonds are considered junk.
175. 6:39You probably remember how, in
176. 6:41mid-October, CoreWeave shares crashed in
177. 6:44one day, followed by Oracle, which also
178. 6:46has massive debts. But that’s not all.
179. 6:50Money is just circulating among the same
180. 6:52companies. Nvidia invested in CoreWeave
181. 6:54.
182. 6:54CoreWeave buys chips from Nvidia. And
183. 6:57Nvidia even promised to buy back
184. 6:59capacity from CoreWeave that no one else
185. 7:02is renting. Everyone's revenue looks big
186. 7:04, but some of that money is just going
187. 7:06in circles. There’s an old joke. Two
188. 7:08economists are walking down the road and
189. 7:10see a cow pie. One says to the other, "
190. 7:13Eat that, and I’ll pay you 100 dollars.
191. 7:15" He eats it and gets the money. They
192. 7:18keep walking and see another one. Now
193. 7:21the second one says, "Eat that, and I’ll
194. 7:23give you back your 100 dollars." The
195. 7:25first one eats it.
196. 7:27No one gained any money, but the economy
197. 7:30grew by 200 dollars.
198. 7:32That’s roughly what some of the revenue
199. 7:34looks like right now.
200. 7:36Although Microsoft claims that demand is
201. 7:39currently higher than they can supply.
202. 7:41And the latest AMD report proves this as
203. 7:44well. As long as clients pay their bills
204. 7:46, everything works. The question is what
205. 7:49will happen when demand begins to
206. 7:52decline.
207. 7:53If you want to debate this topic, you’re
208. 7:55welcome to join our Telegram channel "
209. 7:57Investor's Path." We love discussing
210. 7:59sensitive topics there. Link in the
211. 8:01description. Now let’s talk about IPOs.
212. 8:04In 1999, at the peak of the bubble, 476
213. 8:07companies went public on the US stock
214. 8:10exchange.
215. 8:11Together, they raised about 130 billion
216. 8:14dollars in today’s money.
217. 8:16This year, four times fewer companies
218. 8:18went public, but they have already
219. 8:20raised more money. But we must consider
220. 8:22that the market itself has grown
221. 8:23fourfold since then. Meaning, relative
222. 8:26to the market size, they raised half as
223. 8:28much as they did in 1999. Moreover, more
224. 8:31than half of that amount came from
225. 8:34SpaceX, which raised 86 billion. This is
226. 8:38the largest IPO in history. Next up is
227. 8:40Anthropic, which, according to the press
228. 8:43, plans to raise up to 100 billion.
229. 8:46And next year, OpenAI will join them.
230. 8:50The difference from 1999 is that back
231. 8:52then, companies were going public that
232. 8:54had only recently started and had almost
233. 8:57no revenue. Now, the revenue is huge.
234. 8:59Anthropic had 16 billion dollars in just
235. 9:01the first half of the year, but also a
236. 9:03loss of 80 billion.
237. 9:05Personally, I stay away from IPOs. Take
238. 9:08the 10 largest offerings in America over
239. 9:11the last 20 years.
240. 9:13In the first year, they dropped on
241. 9:15average a third below the starting price
242. 9:16.
243. 9:18But such deals hurt other companies as
244. 9:20well. You noticed that Tesla shares were
245. 9:22falling in June. Analysts believe people
246. 9:25were selling Tesla to buy SpaceX.
247. 9:28Most likely, the same thing will happen
248. 9:30with Anthropic.
249. 9:31To buy its shares, people will sell
250. 9:33other companies, and then it will repeat
251. 9:35with OpenAI.
252. 9:37If this video has already been useful
253. 9:38for you, please hit the like button. It
254. 9:40helps the channel.
255. 9:42On November 3rd, midterm congressional
256. 9:44elections were held in America.
257. 9:46Democrats took both the Senate and the
258. 9:48House of Representatives, but the
259. 9:50president is still a Republican. This
260. 9:52means Trump can block Democratic laws,
261. 9:55but he won't be able to pass his own new
262. 9:57laws. There won't be any drastic policy
263. 10:00changes, and the market usually likes
264. 10:03that.
265. 10:04One year after midterm elections, the
266. 10:06market has historically been higher,
267. 10:08growing almost twice as fast as in other
268. 10:10years.
269. 10:12But the first month after the elections
270. 10:14is usually quiet. Then comes the New
271. 10:16Year's rally. If there isn't one, the
272. 10:18following year usually turns out weaker
273. 10:20. But things don't always go by the book
274. 10:22. In 2022, also an election year, the
275. 10:25market grew well in October and November
276. 10:28, but fell again in December. And there
277. 10:30was no rally. However, 2023 turned out
278. 10:33to be very strong. So, a rise and then a
279. 10:36subsequent fall is normal.
280. 10:39It could happen again now; that's my
281. 10:41opinion.
282. 10:42On the whole, it is not a bubble,
283. 10:44although some companies are overvalued.
284. 10:47I am most concerned about the debts of
285. 10:49companies like Equinix and Oracle. I
286. 10:51have a large position in India myself,
287. 10:53so I am not just looking at this from
288. 10:56the outside. My forecasts don't always
289. 10:58come true, and that's okay. I was
290. 10:59expecting a market pullback after the
291. 11:01elections. It happened a couple of weeks
292. 11:03earlier. When everyone around is
293. 11:05shouting about a bubble, it usually
294. 11:06doesn't burst right away. It gets truly
295. 11:09scary when everyone is convinced that
296. 11:11the market will only grow and buys at
297. 11:13any price.
298. 11:15That is why I am watching for signals.
299. 11:17First, the Fed interest rate; the next
300. 11:19decision is on December 9th. Second, how
301. 11:22the Anthropic IPO goes and how much
302. 11:24money will leave other companies. Third
303. 11:27, spending by giants on data centers. I
304. 11:29think they will grow for another year or
305. 11:32two, and then suppliers like Micron and
306. 11:34SanDisk will face a noticeable pullback
307. 11:36. And fourth, Korea.
308. 11:38If their stock market goes down again,
309. 11:40that's when I will start to worry.
310. 11:43According to my plan, I had cash ready
311. 11:45back in October. I talked about this in
312. 11:48detail in previous videos.
313. 11:50What do you think, is this a bubble or
314. 11:52not?
315. 11:53Write in the comments, let's discuss it
316. 11:55. I hope this video was interesting, and
317. 11:57most importantly, useful. Bye everyone.