“200일선 깨지면 투매가 나옵니다”…하락장에서 개미가 살아남는 단 하나의 기준 — Transcript

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1. 0:00I mean, are you a fool? Why would you
2. 0:02sell here and buy there? No, that’s just
3. 0:05foolish. Selling for less and buying for
4. 0:07more will lead to ruin, you dummy. You
5. 0:09might think that way. But here's the
6. 0:11thing.
7. 0:13Blocking the possibility of an
8. 0:14unexpected further decline is the best
9. 0:17part of this strategy.
10. 0:19There is one more advantage, which is
11. 0:21that...
12. 0:26Hello. I am Oh-Seok Lee. So, today,
13. 0:29let's talk about this topic.
14. 0:32How to be the last survivor in the AI
15. 0:35era.
16. 0:38How to become one, or I hope to become
17. 0:39one.
18. 0:40I'd like to talk about this.
19. 0:43Oh, I’m going to die investing in AI.
20. 0:47It’s so tough that many people around me
21. 0:48are saying they're struggling to death.
22. 0:51They say this a lot, but you shouldn't.
23. 0:53You really shouldn't. AI still has a
24. 0:55long way to go. It's not going to end in
25. 0:57a day or two. It will last at least five
26. 1:00to ten years, so what will you do if you
27. 1:02collapse from exhaustion here? No, this
28. 1:04won't do. You can't do that. Let's keep
29. 1:07going. I want to share this kind of
30. 1:08message.
31. 1:09Of course, when investing in AI, there
32. 1:11are extremely tough periods and also
33. 1:14very good periods, and it seems we are
34. 1:16currently in an extremely difficult
35. 1:18phase.
36. 1:20But in order to be the last survivor in
37. 1:23three or five years, and to make money
38. 1:25through AI investments and, well,
39. 1:27survive, isn't that very important?
40. 1:31Even though there are rumors that the
41. 1:33bubble is bursting and AI is finished,
42. 1:34let's just say that actually happens.
43. 1:37Even if that happens, it will likely
44. 1:39come back to life again. In the end,
45. 1:42even if the bubble bursts, it will
46. 1:43recover. Why? Because AI just has to
47. 1:45keep moving forward.
48. 1:47I have no doubts about this, but I want
49. 1:50to think about why the market is shaking
50. 1:52, and above all, survival is what
51. 1:55matters—we need to survive, right?
52. 1:59I want to talk about my own thoughts on
53. 2:01how to survive today.
54. 2:03Actually, on Thursday evening, the US
55. 2:05Nasdaq index showed a significant
56. 2:07decline, falling well below the 200-day
57. 2:09moving average.
58. 2:10I don't actually place much importance
59. 2:13on charts, but if I had to name one line
60. 2:15I consider important, I value the 200-
61. 2:18day moving average significantly.
62. 2:21If you ask why, it's very simple: it's
63. 2:23just because everyone else is watching
64. 2:25it too, yes, that's why.
65. 2:28Looking back at the past, once the stock
66. 2:30price falls below the 200-day moving
67. 2:32average, it often leads to panic selling
68. 2:34, resulting in an "undershooting"
69. 2:36process where the price drops
70. 2:38excessively.
71. 2:41The first time it dips, people might
72. 2:43feel it's tough but bearable, but if it
73. 2:45drops further, many end up selling their
74. 2:47stocks at the bottom.
75. 2:50I've had many such experiences myself,
76. 2:52so I use the 200-day line as a benchmark
77. 2:54for my investment strategy, and today
78. 2:56I’d like to talk about that.
79. 2:59People like me who suggest trying
80. 3:00various investment approaches, how about
81. 3:01doing it this way? How about trying it
82. 3:03that way? People who say things like
83. 3:05that are fundamentally bound to get
84. 3:07criticized.
85. 3:08I’ve developed more resistance to being
86. 3:10criticized than in the past, but it
87. 3:12still hurts.
88. 3:13However, I do know why I get criticized
89. 3:16.
90. 3:17The reason is that I tend to be a bit
91. 3:19late in my suggestions.
92. 3:20What I mean is, when people say "let's
93. 3:23buy," it would be great to buy here. But
94. 3:25I usually suggest buying here.
95. 3:28So, even when I say "let's buy," people
96. 3:30ask why I'm always late with my
97. 3:31recommendations.
98. 3:33They criticize me, asking why I suggest
99. 3:34buying after the price has already gone
100. 3:35up. I also suggest selling at this point
101. 3:38.
102. 3:39Then I get criticized like this. They
103. 3:41ask why I'm telling them to sell now
104. 3:43instead of back then, and I get heat for
105. 3:45it. But there are cases of the opposite
106. 3:47as well. There are those who suggest
107. 3:49buying a little earlier. Yes, there are
108. 3:51people who say let's buy a bit sooner.
109. 3:53Then they get criticized, like, "
110. 3:54Everything is so bad right now, and
111. 3:56you're telling me to buy?"
112. 3:58They get called crazy for it.
113. 4:01But looking back later, the price
114. 4:02actually goes up. And a characteristic
115. 4:04of these people is that they say, "
116. 4:05Let's sell at this point." Right here. "
117. 4:07Let's sell now.""We’ve made a decent
118. 4:09profit, so let's sell." Then people
119. 4:10criticize them, saying, "Why sell when
120. 4:11things are going so well?"
121. 4:13So, whether you go a bit earlier or
122. 4:15later, from the perspective of building
123. 4:18a strategy, you really have to choose
124. 4:20one or the other.
125. 4:22It’s crucial to build a strategy where
126. 4:24you buy and sell before it's too late,
127. 4:27even if it's a bit delayed.
128. 4:30In my opinion, the most important
129. 4:32standard for making this judgment is the
130. 4:34200-day moving average I mentioned
131. 4:36earlier.
132. 4:39If you plot the 200-day line, you can
133. 4:42use it as a benchmark—only invest when
134. 4:44it rises significantly above the 200-
135. 4:47day line, and take a break when it falls
136. 4:49significantly below it.
137. 4:52That is my way of thinking. But there
138. 4:54are several problems with this. The
139. 4:56problems are that this strategy has both
140. 4:58its advantages and its disadvantages.
141. 5:00The first thing is, simply put, it's
142. 5:02like this. I mean, why not just buy when
143. 5:04it goes above the 200-day moving average
144. 5:05and sell when it comes back down? What's
145. 5:06so hard about that? It’s too simple,
146. 5:08right? Don't you think? You might think
147. 5:10that, but in actual practice, there are
148. 5:12quite a lot of errors and difficulties
149. 5:14in applying it. For example, consider
150. 5:16this case.
151. 5:17You think it crossed the 200-day line,
152. 5:19but oh no, it turns around; or you think
153. 5:21it's falling, but oh dear, it reverses
154. 5:23again.
155. 5:24Then you often end up thinking, "I
156. 5:26bought here and got ruined," or "I sold
157. 5:28here, what on earth am I doing?"
158. 5:31We call this a "whipsaw," and there is a
159. 5:33possibility you might get hit by these
160. 5:35whipsaws.
161. 5:37You can think of this as a deception.
162. 5:40It is a trick that the stock market
163. 5:41plays on us. Oh no, I got tricked. I
164. 5:43shouldn't have bought here, but I did. I
165. 5:46shouldn't have sold here, but oh, I sold
166. 5:47it. That’s how it goes. But anyway, let
167. 5:50me introduce some of the advantages of
168. 5:53using this strategy. What is the biggest
169. 5:56advantage?
170. 5:58When I checked using historical cases,
171. 6:01the biggest advantage is that you can
172. 6:04keep the MDD, or the drop from the peak
173. 6:07of your capital, very limited.
174. 6:11Why is that? Because it cuts off further
175. 6:13potential losses in advance.
176. 6:16It prevents further losses, so when do
177. 6:19you buy back?
178. 6:20I usually say this. When it moves like
179. 6:23this and climbs back up, that’s when you
180. 6:25buy, right here.
181. 6:28I tell them, "You buy at this point."
182. 6:30Then you might say this to me. "Are you
183. 6:33an idiot? Why sell here and buy there?
184. 6:36Isn't that foolish?
185. 6:39You sell lower and buy higher, you'll go
186. 6:41broke, you fool!"
187. 6:43You might think that. But it's this,
188. 6:46it's this.
189. 6:47Preventing the possibility of an
190. 6:50unexpected further decline is the best
191. 6:53part of this strategy.
192. 6:56There is one more advantage, which is
193. 6:57when it dips below the 200-day line and
194. 6:59starts to come back up.
195. 7:00It looks like it’s rising, you think
196. 7:02it’s coming back, but then—oh, wait, no
197. 7:04—and it just drops again.
198. 7:06These cases don't actually happen very
199. 7:08often, but they are really tough when
200. 7:09they do.
201. 7:12Because this is when a rebound fails,
202. 7:14and in such cases, the stock price
203. 7:17doesn't just dip and recover shortly; it
204. 7:20can fall significantly.
205. 7:24Therefore, I can say that the benefit of
206. 7:27risk management is substantial when
207. 7:29these situations occur.
208. 7:32While discussing this strategy, I can
209. 7:35share some past examples with you.
210. 7:38Based on the Nasdaq, I think there have
211. 7:39been roughly four major instances where
212. 7:41it significantly fell below the 200-day
213. 7:43moving average.
214. 7:44First was the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020
215. 7:46.
216. 7:47Then in 2022, we were in a situation
217. 7:50where interest rates had to be raised
218. 7:52sharply due to inflation.
219. 7:55The third time was in 2025, which was
220. 7:58last year.
221. 7:59Last year, there was the issue of
222. 8:01tariffs.
223. 8:03When Trump was threatening everything
224. 8:05with tariffs, and the fourth instance is
225. 8:07this year, 2026.
226. 8:09What happened then was the war with Iran
227. 8:12.
228. 8:14There are these four major cases, and
229. 8:16except for one, they went like this.
230. 8:19It's like, "I thought it was crashing,
231. 8:21but surprise, it went back up." Then the
232. 8:23people who sold become a bit foolish.
233. 8:25Because they have to buy it back at a
234. 8:26higher price.
235. 8:28So, in the three cases—during COVID, the
236. 8:31tariffs, and the Iran war—it dropped
237. 8:34below the 200-day line but quickly
238. 8:37recovered.
239. 8:39This means this strategy just helped
240. 8:41avoid the pain of the drawdown, but in
241. 8:43reality, you might end up losing on
242. 8:45returns because you have to buy back at
243. 8:47a higher price.
244. 8:49But there is a problem like this.
245. 8:51Now, this problem refers to 2022.
246. 8:54Inflation was so high that they raised
247. 8:57rates, causing a year-long decline; you
248. 8:59think it's going up, but it drops again
249. 9:01, leading to a very serious downward
250. 9:03trend.
251. 9:05So, stock prices showed a significant
252. 9:07decline for about a year.
253. 9:09Therefore, among the four past cases of
254. 9:11falling below the 200-day line, if you
255. 9:13used this risk management strategy, this
256. 9:15single case makes a clear difference in
257. 9:18performance.
258. 9:19How much of a difference does it make in
259. 9:21the MDD? It makes a difference of as
260. 9:23much as 8%.
261. 9:24And in terms of actual returns, there is
262. 9:27a difference of over 30%since 2020. Why
263. 9:30? Because it blocked that risk.
264. 9:34To be the final survivor in the
265. 9:35worst-case scenario, you have to survive
266. 9:38; you can't just get wiped out at the
267. 9:40bottom because it's too tough.
268. 9:42It acts as a shield that defends you
269. 9:44against such things.
270. 9:46So, I mentioned this strategy to the
271. 9:49members of the Huchin Club the moment
272. 9:51the Nasdaq fell below the 200-day line
273. 9:54last Thursday and Friday.
274. 9:57In a sense, by using this strategy for
275. 10:00risk or loss management, the goal is to
276. 10:02keep investing until the very end of the
277. 10:04AI era, so you can see it as that kind
278. 10:07of situation.
279. 10:08The situation is very difficult, isn't
280. 10:09it? So, what kind of talk might come up
281. 10:12now? We might see what's called FUD. And
282. 10:15what is FUD? It's fear. Oh, I'm scared
283. 10:18to death. Man, this is truly terrifying
284. 10:20. Hey, isn't AI completely finished? And
285. 10:21the next reason is uncertainty. I mean,
286. 10:25now that the Democrats are in, what on
287. 10:27earth can they actually do? What even is
288. 10:29this? I have no idea. I'm so anxious.
289. 10:31Things like that. And finally, doubt. So
290. 10:33, hearing people being fearful, unsure,
291. 10:36and doubtful—these kinds of stories come
292. 10:39up a lot. They come up especially often
293. 10:41in this phase. Ah, it's ruined now. The
294. 10:43world is doomed. Hey, a recession is
295. 10:45coming and it's all over, so you're
296. 10:46still trading stocks? You fool. You hear
297. 10:48things like this a lot.
298. 10:50This is all called FUD, so in Korean,
299. 10:52you could say it's "peodeureum"(FUD-ing
300. 10:54).
301. 10:55"Peo-deu-deu, peo-deu-deu"—a lot of talk
302. 10:57like this comes up. And because of the
303. 10:58fear, people end up selling all their
304. 10:59stocks.
305. 11:00But for me, I just think about the
306. 11:04worst-case scenario in advance.
307. 11:08I just assume that things will head
308. 11:09toward the worst-case scenario. It could
309. 11:11turn out like this situation.
310. 11:12Even so, I will survive and continue to
311. 11:15invest.
312. 11:16Because it eventually goes back up—it
313. 11:18eventually goes back up, so I can just
314. 11:19dodge it for a moment and invest again.
315. 11:21Even if I have to buy back in at a
316. 11:23slightly higher price, I must survive
317. 11:25anyway, and survival is what matters, so
318. 11:27that's the strategy. So, what is the
319. 11:29worst-case scenario as of right now?
320. 11:31I'll try to talk a bit more about that.
321. 11:33When talking about AI investment, the
322. 11:35one thing I consistently emphasize is
323. 11:37computing.
324. 11:39Computing is money, and computing is
325. 11:41everything. These are the kinds of
326. 11:42things being said a lot right now.
327. 11:44When we look at computing as a product
328. 11:46or service, there are the buyers who
329. 11:48purchase computing.
330. 11:50And there are the suppliers who create
331. 11:52and sell computing.
332. 11:54And as for the suppliers, the prime
333. 11:57example is Nvidia.
334. 12:00Nvidia takes its own GPUs, attaches HBM
335. 12:03made by SK Hynix, asks TSMC to turn it
336. 12:06into a chip, uses CoWoS, and then with
337. 12:09all that, what else do they attach?
338. 12:14They attach power, and now they're
339. 12:17adding new substrates, developing
340. 12:20photonics, and in any case, they are
341. 12:23constantly striving to create computing
342. 12:27in new, more efficient ways. Ever since
343. 12:30the AI revolution began, Nvidia has been
344. 12:31keeping on everyone, saying, "Hey, how
345. 12:33far have you gotten with this?""I need
346. 12:34to check your homework; what are you
347. 12:36doing instead of doing your homework?""
348. 12:37What are you doing with photonics right
349. 12:38now?""Lumentum, what are you doing?"
350. 12:39They keep saying things like this to
351. 12:41push things forward. Why?
352. 12:43To create better computing.
353. 12:46NVIDIA has been working tirelessly, even
354. 12:48acting as a guarantor, to enable better
355. 12:50computing at a lower cost, but where
356. 12:52exactly is the problem now?
357. 12:55It is on the supplier side.
358. 12:58NVIDIA is saying to companies like
359. 13:00CoreWeave, "Hey, take my GPUs, build
360. 13:03your own services, and sell them to
361. 13:05others."
362. 13:08"My GPUs are too expensive for many to
363. 13:09buy, so just take them and sell them
364. 13:11instead."
365. 13:12That is what they are saying. To
366. 13:13CoreWeave. But CoreWeave lost focus,
367. 13:16took on too much debt, and ended up in a
368. 13:18very difficult situation.
369. 13:20So, many people were asking, "Because of
370. 13:21the interest rates, shouldn't you be
371. 13:22going bankrupt?""Who else is there
372. 13:24besides you?""Who else is messing around
373. 13:26while building data centers and failing
374. 13:27to do it properly?" There were really a
375. 13:29lot of talks like that. Many people in
376. 13:31the data center business were struggling
377. 13:34and worrying about how to address this,
378. 13:37but now that the Democrats have won,
379. 13:40what happens is people thinking, "Wait,
380. 13:44I can't hold on any longer.""Actually, I
381. 13:46don't think I can do this anymore.""I'm
382. 13:48going to quit.""What should I do?""I'm
383. 13:50sorry." It seems these kinds of things
384. 13:52are starting to come out now.
385. 13:54When these stories begin to emerge, the
386. 13:57builders who use these resources reach a
387. 14:00point where they say, "I can't do it
388. 14:02anymore, I give up."
389. 14:06While we are trying to become the
390. 14:08ultimate survivor, they are just giving
391. 14:10up.
392. 14:11"I can't do this anymore.""I'm sorry.""
393. 14:14My apologies." When that moment of
394. 14:15giving up comes, it creates a problem
395. 14:17with the supply.
396. 14:19And if a supply problem occurs, the
397. 14:21value chains involved will face issues.
398. 14:23The value chains within this will have
399. 14:24problems, and their performance will
400. 14:25decline. So, the stock market is
401. 14:27reflecting the expectation of poor
402. 14:29performance in advance. That is why
403. 14:31stock prices are currently falling.
404. 14:33Therefore, the talk about AI hardware
405. 14:35failing in the hardware sector can be
406. 14:37seen as coming from this very situation
407. 14:39.
408. 14:40But the problem is, if the Democrats
409. 14:43really stop these AI data centers and
410. 14:46end AI development, the U.S. could
411. 14:48potentially fall into an economic
412. 14:50recession.
413. 14:54If they just do a moderate amount of AI
414. 14:56and move on, it might be fine, but if
415. 14:57they don't do it properly, there is a
416. 14:59possibility of a recession.
417. 15:01Then, if there is a possibility of a
418. 15:03recession, what will happen? Yes,
419. 15:05something like this would happen.
420. 15:06It means there is a possibility the
421. 15:08market might not just bounce back after
422. 15:10hitting the 200-day moving average, but
423. 15:11fall even further.
424. 15:13What I am saying is that we should
425. 15:14preemptively assume the worst-case
426. 15:16scenario.
427. 15:17The point is to prepare tools that allow
428. 15:19us to respond even if such a situation
429. 15:21occurs.
430. 15:22So, if we assume a recession is coming,
431. 15:26Stock prices, based on the Nasdaq, would
432. 15:28likely fall even further than they are
433. 15:29now. Well, if you're wondering if we
434. 15:31should stop Nasdaq investing and do
435. 15:33something else, I personally believe we
436. 15:35should keep going.
437. 15:37Because even if a recession hits, stock
438. 15:39prices will bottom out within 6 months
439. 15:41to a year and eventually start rising
440. 15:43again.
441. 15:44So, you have to be prepared to endure
442. 15:46even the worst-case scenario if you want
443. 15:48to be the ultimate survivor in the AI
444. 15:51era. So, what if a recession comes? And
445. 15:53what if people say, "Oh, Hynix's
446. 15:54earnings are going to be crushed"? Such
447. 15:56talk is already starting to circulate.
448. 15:58People are saying, "Wouldn't the price
449. 16:00drop by about 80%?""Hynix is going to
450. 16:01post a loss." There is so much talk
451. 16:03these days about how far the stock will
452. 16:04fall if they eventually post a loss.
453. 16:06Can I continue my investment without
454. 16:08stopping, even if those kinds of rumors
455. 16:09exist?
456. 16:10How can we build a structure to do that
457. 16:12? You can think of this as what I am
458. 16:14talking about today.
459. 16:16But the problem is, a recession is one
460. 16:18thing, but what if the buyer—the one
461. 16:20purchasing the computing power—says, "
462. 16:22I'm sorry"?
463. 16:24"I already signed the contracts and made
464. 16:26the commitments, but it's gotten tough
465. 16:27for me, so I think I need to take a
466. 16:29break."
467. 16:30Like Anthropic saying, "I'm sorry about
468. 16:32the computing power I purchased." What
469. 16:34if something like that happens?
470. 16:36And this Anthropic situation...honestly
471. 16:38, this was the biggest reason I’ve been
472. 16:40conservative in our monthly strategies
473. 16:42since September.
474. 16:45Anthropic’s IPO may or may not go well,
475. 16:48but even if it does, I’ve been saying
476. 16:51the high costs involved could be a
477. 16:54burden; now, as of Friday, there’s even
478. 16:57talk that Anthropic might not be able to
479. 17:00go public at all.
480. 17:02So, you can see that the market is
481. 17:05heavily reflecting these concerns very
482. 17:09strongly. How do you feel about this?
483. 17:11What I wanted to share with you today is
484. 17:13the method to become the ultimate
485. 17:15survivor in the AI era.
486. 17:18Investing in AI is incredibly tough, but
487. 17:20I’m going to survive and see this
488. 17:22through to the very end.
489. 17:24How about you? If you are also going to
490. 17:25stick with it until the end, please
491. 17:27write this in the comments below. Let’s
492. 17:29become the ultimate survivors of the AI
493. 17:31era. Or say, "I will be the final
494. 17:34survivor of the AI era." Just like that
495. 17:36. And then, even if things are tough,
496. 17:39difficult, or frustrating due to losses
497. 17:41, just account for the worst-case
498. 17:43scenario, make your adjustments, and
499. 17:45even if you have to buy in at a higher
500. 17:47price later, resolve to get back in and
501. 17:49make money in the AI era again. I think
502. 17:51it would be good for you to adopt this
503. 17:53kind of mindset. What I’ve said today
504. 17:55actually requires a more sophisticated
505. 17:57explanation from a strategic perspective
506. 17:59. So, I covered this content for about
507. 18:01an hour and a half on Friday evening—no
508. 18:03, it wasn't Friday evening. It was in a
509. 18:05video where I explained everything from
510. 18:0712:00 midnight to 1:30 AM. Please check
511. 18:10out that video in the comments below,
512. 18:12and I hope you think deeply about how
513. 18:15you can respond to and survive in this
514. 18:18crisis.
515. 18:19Honestly, I’ve been having such a hard
516. 18:21time since yesterday that my throat
517. 18:23hurts and I’m exhausted even as I’m
518. 18:25recording this; how about you all? You
519. 18:27must be very frustrated, right?
520. 18:29Especially when things are tough, I hope
521. 18:31you watch this video, go outside, go for
522. 18:33a run, and take a look at the clear sky
523. 18:34. Yes, take care of your health that way
524. 18:36, and I hope we can continue our AI
525. 18:38journey together until the end. Now, if
526. 18:39you found today's content helpful, don't
527. 18:41forget to hit the like and subscribe
528. 18:42buttons. I will wrap things up here.
529. 18:43Thank you.