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2 дня переговоров. Итоги — Transcript

by Анатолий Шарий · 4,027 words · 715 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Hello, dear friends.
  2. 0:02Regarding the negotiations taking place
  3. 0:04now, these are important talks, truly
  4. 0:06important, perhaps the most important of
  5. 0:08all, but their outcome for me, at least
  6. 0:10, is a big question—that is, what will
  7. 0:12they lead to.
  8. 0:13Look, friends, after Trump's party
  9. 0:15performed poorly in the midterm
  10. 0:16elections—though it really couldn't have
  11. 0:18performed well, right?
  12. 0:20Many assumed that was it, their
  13. 0:23peacekeeping efforts would now vanish
  14. 0:26into thin air. And in fact, there was a
  15. 0:29certain logic in this for Zelenskyy.
  16. 0:32Well, first of all, it's very good for
  17. 0:33Zelenskyy, because he doesn't want any
  18. 0:35peacekeeping at all; he is perfectly
  19. 0:36satisfied with the war. Secondly, these
  20. 0:39Democrats arrive and immediately start
  21. 0:42handing out the cash again. War, last
  22. 0:45forever, you are beautiful.
  23. 0:48Because the current administration
  24. 0:50didn't provide the 16 billion that
  25. 0:51Zelenskyy had already made big plans for
  26. 0:53.
  27. 0:55However, despite everything, the
  28. 0:57previously announced trilateral meeting
  29. 0:59in Abu Dhabi did take place.
  30. 1:02But interestingly, this time Kyiv didn't
  31. 1:04start saying, "We are being forced to
  32. 1:05talk to murderers, and we don't want to
  33. 1:07talk to murderers."
  34. 1:09On the contrary, Lubinets, for example,
  35. 1:11noting the peacekeeping efforts of
  36. 1:13Meloni and Trump regarding Oleshky,
  37. 1:14agreed without any problems to sit next
  38. 1:16to his Russian counterpart, and they
  39. 1:18actually achieved total mutual
  40. 1:19understanding, and it looks, well, quite
  41. 1:21decent, you know.
  42. 1:23There. In short, there is some kind of
  43. 1:26chemistry between them.
  44. 1:28But then the head of the Servant of the
  45. 1:30People faction, Arakhamia—having
  46. 1:32significantly strengthened his
  47. 1:33administrative position after Yermak was
  48. 1:36ousted—stated that there is no point for
  49. 1:38Ukraine to participate in the December
  50. 1:40G20 summit in Miami if Russia is not
  51. 1:42there.
  52. 1:44One gets the impression that, in reality
  53. 1:46, the relations between Kyiv and Moscow
  54. 1:49are much warmer than what is shown to
  55. 1:51the public.
  56. 1:54And I don't know which side this is more
  57. 1:56shameful for, to be honest, but that is
  58. 1:57exactly how it looks.
  59. 1:59The Europeans have also ignited a desire
  60. 2:01to talk to the Russians, as I told you.
  61. 2:04Their only problem is that they can't
  62. 2:06find who will talk, because first they,
  63. 2:08er, spewed a pile of crap, excuse me,
  64. 2:10and then they say we're going to talk.
  65. 2:13Well, that's not great.
  66. 2:15The leaders of Finland and Norway called
  67. 2:17the Kremlin, then backtracked and said
  68. 2:19that they themselves, well, basically,
  69. 2:21told everyone to get lost, we want to
  70. 2:23talk.
  71. 2:24Europe has split into two camps.
  72. 2:28Some approve of this policy of
  73. 2:29appeasement, while others believe that
  74. 2:30peace can only be achieved through
  75. 2:31strength.
  76. 2:33Surprisingly, even Putin's enemy Merz
  77. 2:36admitted that he would not avoid a
  78. 2:38meeting with Putin on the sidelines of
  79. 2:41the G20 summit if he comes to Miami.
  80. 2:44Although Washington is inviting him
  81. 2:45there, officially the Kremlin has not
  82. 2:47yet decided. What accounts for this
  83. 2:49openness from the Europeans? You could
  84. 2:51say it’s because they simply want peace
  85. 2:53, or you could link it to the fact that
  86. 2:55the Europeans are just plain running out
  87. 2:57of money.
  88. 2:58You know one of the conditions—we’ll
  89. 3:01talk about this later—that Kyiv has put
  90. 3:03forward in these negotiations is that
  91. 3:05the army must be supported for another
  92. 3:0710 years after the war, an army of
  93. 3:09800,000 people.
  94. 3:10If you have a calculator or artificial
  95. 3:13intelligence handy, ask it to calculate
  96. 3:15how much money that is.
  97. 3:17It comes out to around 700 billion. Well
  98. 3:20, for Europe, which is already half-dead
  99. 3:21, that’s, of course, that’s, of course,
  100. 3:23just peachy.
  101. 3:25And to cover Kyiv's financial needs next
  102. 3:28year, the EU will have to borrow another
  103. 3:3040 billion on top of the 166 billion
  104. 3:33already transferred.
  105. 3:35Well, billions aren't infinite, after
  106. 3:37all.
  107. 3:38And they have to come up with something
  108. 3:40to justify themselves to their own
  109. 3:41population.
  110. 3:43It turns out like, you know, we don't
  111. 3:45want those sour grapes on the table
  112. 3:47because we aren't being invited to the
  113. 3:49table, but when we are invited, we run
  114. 3:51there very quickly.
  115. 3:54At the very least, the Americans and
  116. 3:55Ukrainians held separate consultations
  117. 3:57with the Europeans before meeting with
  118. 3:58the Russians.
  119. 4:01Although, for some reason, they invited
  120. 4:03representatives of NATO and G7 member
  121. 4:05countries—Poland, Lithuania, Denmark.
  122. 4:09They didn't invite anyone else. If you
  123. 4:10believe Politico, Trump's special envoys
  124. 4:12, Kushner and Witkoff, intend to
  125. 4:14pressure Russia to take Europe's opinion
  126. 4:16into account. I personally believe that
  127. 4:19; I believed it right away, especially
  128. 4:20since Kushner, who called Putin a
  129. 4:22peacemaker, will be the one applying the
  130. 4:24pressure. I believed it, and why not?
  131. 4:28The main topic of the meeting declared
  132. 4:29by the Russians isn't even the war in
  133. 4:31Ukraine or finding ways to end it, but
  134. 4:33the post-war security architecture in
  135. 4:34Europe.
  136. 4:36In Trump's definitions, this will be a
  137. 4:39great, beautiful agreement that will
  138. 4:41affect all of Europe.
  139. 4:42What will this architecture be, and what
  140. 4:44will these security guarantees be?
  141. 4:47Many journalists say that they intend to
  142. 4:50give Kyiv guarantees similar to Article
  143. 4:535 of the NATO Charter.
  144. 4:56In reality, well, NATO—NATO doesn't look
  145. 4:58that impressive right now, especially
  146. 5:00after the Houthis in flip-flops bombed
  147. 5:02an important American ally in the Middle
  148. 5:04East—Saudi Arabia, which is fully armed
  149. 5:07, by the way.
  150. 5:09And against this backdrop, the States
  151. 5:11can't even help their own ally.
  152. 5:14There you go. And against this whole
  153. 5:15backdrop, we, of course, absolutely
  154. 5:17believe that everyone will be ready to
  155. 5:18get involved in a nuclear conflict if
  156. 5:19that pops into Zelensky's head. Anything
  157. 5:21could pop into that bastard's head,
  158. 5:23because he's ready for a nuclear
  159. 5:25conflict, as long as he doesn't lose his
  160. 5:27seat.
  161. 5:29According to the Washington Post,
  162. 5:31Kushner wants to resume consultations in
  163. 5:33the Russia-NATO Council format so there
  164. 5:35is a diplomatic channel in case of
  165. 5:37crisis situations.
  166. 5:40Financial Times: European officials say
  167. 5:42they are discussing restoring conflict
  168. 5:45prevention mechanisms like those that
  169. 5:47existed during the Cold War.
  170. 5:51In general, various formats are being
  171. 5:53discussed, like the "Open Skies" that
  172. 5:56once existed back in the Soviet Union.
  173. 6:00The Eastern Bloc discussed them with, uh
  174. 6:02, with NATO. But, of course, they oppose
  175. 6:05this. Meaning, they oppose any attempts
  176. 6:08to do anything in an adequate format.
  177. 6:11Who opposes it? The European Union. Von
  178. 6:13der Leyen stated that the EU will resist
  179. 6:16.
  180. 6:16European officials were sent to Abu
  181. 6:19Dhabi specifically to strengthen
  182. 6:21Ukraine's position and prevent Russia
  183. 6:23from using the US-initiated negotiation
  184. 6:26process to revise European security
  185. 6:28architecture.
  186. 6:30In the last week, Europeans clearly
  187. 6:32stated their position.
  188. 6:35They made it clear to the American
  189. 6:36mediator that no discussion on the
  190. 6:38continent's future can take place
  191. 6:40without considering our expectations and
  192. 6:42demands.
  193. 6:43That is the French Foreign Minister.
  194. 6:45Well, he cut it short, as they say.
  195. 6:48Honestly, when I watch how French
  196. 6:50politicians discuss what is happening on
  197. 6:52the sidelines of the negotiations, etc.
  198. 6:54...Actually, well, they really do have
  199. 6:56something to discuss, truly something to
  200. 6:58discuss.
  201. 6:59And the most interesting thing I heard
  202. 7:01is that 5 billion dollars—or is it
  203. 7:02billions of euros, right?
  204. 7:05That’s just peanuts compared to the
  205. 7:07total.
  206. 7:08...which are being allocated to Kyiv.
  207. 7:12So, those 5 billion, I heard, would be
  208. 7:14enough to repair all the schools in
  209. 7:16France entirely.
  210. 7:17Can you imagine?
  211. 7:19The guys who take to the streets, yes,
  212. 7:21they are judged and insulted there. I,
  213. 7:23by the way, don't understand why Russian
  214. 7:25media does this.
  215. 7:26Because if you grab any of those guys,
  216. 7:28they have African or Arab roots, and
  217. 7:30they are all for, well, for the Russians
  218. 7:33.
  219. 7:34And so, well, they haven't gone far in
  220. 7:36their mental development when they bash
  221. 7:38them—and who are they bashing?
  222. 7:40They are bashing the very countries that
  223. 7:43provide weapons to Kyiv, with which they
  224. 7:46kill Russian soldiers or shell Russian
  225. 7:49cities.
  226. 7:50So, are they doing something bad, then?
  227. 7:53It is very difficult, of course,
  228. 7:54difficult to track the thought process
  229. 7:56of Russian media, right?
  230. 7:58In general, there is plenty to discuss
  231. 8:00because back home in their own country,
  232. 8:01it’s a complete mess.
  233. 8:04The Russian Foreign Ministry replied to
  234. 8:06the dissatisfied Europeans that the EU
  235. 8:08removed itself from negotiations through
  236. 8:10its support for Ukraine and its negative
  237. 8:11stance toward Russia.
  238. 8:13And therefore, goodbye.
  239. 8:16One way or another, according to a New
  240. 8:18York Times report, the focus on European
  241. 8:20security issues this time is because the
  242. 8:22previous series of meetings earlier this
  243. 8:24year reached a dead end.
  244. 8:26Why? Because back then, we hit a wall
  245. 8:29with territorial issues.
  246. 8:31Since Russia wants the entire Donbas as
  247. 8:34a trophy, to claim that the war has been
  248. 8:37won.
  249. 8:38Though, of course, we remember somewhat
  250. 8:40different goals.
  251. 8:41And Kyiv doesn't want to give it up, not
  252. 8:43because they love the Ukrainian lands so
  253. 8:45much; they said goodbye to them a long
  254. 8:47time ago, especially the Donbas.
  255. 8:50No, to the part that has long been
  256. 8:52outside Kyiv’s control.
  257. 8:55Because it would look bad in the
  258. 8:56elections that Zelensky is heading into
  259. 8:59. That’s all there is to it. Now,
  260. 9:00apparently, the Americans want to
  261. 9:02incentivize Moscow and reach an
  262. 9:04agreement on security guarantees for
  263. 9:06Ukraine that would also satisfy Russia.
  264. 9:10Something like a NATO Article 5, which
  265. 9:13would mean Ukraine doesn't join NATO and
  266. 9:17no NATO contingent is deployed on
  267. 9:20Ukrainian soil.
  268. 9:22For some reason, this has been talked
  269. 9:24about in the press again lately. But
  270. 9:26territorial disputes made themselves
  271. 9:28felt this time after all.
  272. 9:30If we are to believe insiders,
  273. 9:32territorial concessions are being
  274. 9:33discussed behind closed doors more
  275. 9:35willingly than is publicly acknowledged
  276. 9:36.
  277. 9:38What does that mean?
  278. 9:40We don’t know who is discussing
  279. 9:42territorial concessions willingly.
  280. 9:45Either Kyiv is willing to give up
  281. 9:47territory, or Moscow is willing to give
  282. 9:50up claims to part of the territory.
  283. 9:55Zakharova also leaked that the Americans
  284. 9:57, in addition to returning Russia to the
  285. 9:58European energy market, proposed an
  286. 10:00original way out of the deadlock—
  287. 10:01redrawing regional borders.
  288. 10:04Actually, that’s clever.
  289. 10:06Well, clearly, if I can’t conquer the
  290. 10:08Donbas, then we’ll just say this part
  291. 10:09isn't the Donbas—voila, conquered!
  292. 10:12Uh, very smart people, even Ukrainian
  293. 10:15MPs, floated this idea before.
  294. 10:19And let me remind you that if
  295. 10:20negotiations failed, Zelensky once
  296. 10:22wanted to wall off the Donbas completely
  297. 10:23.
  298. 10:25Following morning consultations with the
  299. 10:27Europeans, before the first meeting with
  300. 10:30the Russians, Utkiv wrote the same thing
  301. 10:32Kushner did a couple of days ago: any
  302. 10:34agreement to end the war must include
  303. 10:36security guarantees for Ukraine and
  304. 10:38respect its sovereignty, territorial
  305. 10:40integrity, and the right to make its own
  306. 10:42decisions.
  307. 10:44And NATO remains the foundation of
  308. 10:46collective defense for Europe.
  309. 10:49Well, let’s be honest, that clashes a
  310. 10:51bit with the statements from Putin and
  311. 10:53Trump, who said that, as a result,
  312. 10:55Ukraine's territory, well, Ukraine's
  313. 10:57borders will change a bit.
  314. 11:07Well, it kind of contradicts that.
  315. 11:10They said nothing after the first day;
  316. 11:12they only managed to discuss Russia’s
  317. 11:15demands for security guarantees, while
  318. 11:17Kyiv, following the EU’s lead, demanded
  319. 11:19a ceasefire first and then a transition
  320. 11:21to forming a new architecture.
  321. 11:25If you listen to the American side’s
  322. 11:28statement, these talks, the negotiations
  323. 11:30, went moderately well.
  324. 11:33For instance, Rubio says the talks were
  325. 11:35very productive; obviously, there is
  326. 11:37still a lot of work ahead, and it's not
  327. 11:39something that can be resolved within
  328. 11:40the next 24 hours.
  329. 11:42Our goal is to expand the trilateral
  330. 11:44format so that not only the US, Ukraine
  331. 11:46, and Russia are at the table, but the
  332. 11:48Europeans as well.
  333. 11:50The trilateral format was constructive
  334. 11:52and quite substantive; the translators
  335. 11:54had time to discuss blah-blah among
  336. 11:56themselves. That’s Zelensky, or rather,
  337. 11:58Dima Litvin, who writes everything for
  338. 11:59him.
  339. 12:00Now, the one who didn't behave very
  340. 12:03constructively was Foreign Minister
  341. 12:05Sybiha. He began making demands for
  342. 12:07partial ceasefires regarding energy and
  343. 12:10the sea.
  344. 12:11Something went wrong; they were proud of
  345. 12:15the strikes at sea, but then there was a
  346. 12:19response, and now they are demanding a
  347. 12:23ceasefire at sea after all.
  348. 12:27Plus, Sybiha began claiming that Putin
  349. 12:29is lying, that they didn't capture 20%,
  350. 12:31but 10%—not this much, but that much,
  351. 12:33and so on.
  352. 12:35And Zelensky began to repeat these
  353. 12:37points with pleasure as well. Well, you
  354. 12:40usually don't do that during
  355. 12:41negotiations, because it’s not really
  356. 12:42important.
  357. 12:44After the talks, you can denounce them
  358. 12:46all you want. Negotiations are a
  359. 12:47delicate matter, right? But Sybiha is
  360. 12:50like a bull in a china shop. And
  361. 12:54Zelensky declared that the Russians
  362. 12:55think they have occupied half the
  363. 12:57territory of the Donbas that we control
  364. 12:58.
  365. 12:59I could also draw Putin a picture
  366. 13:00showing that I’ve supposedly occupied
  367. 13:02Russia.
  368. 13:03Well, those morons should be told that,
  369. 13:05besides the Donetsk region, the Donbas
  370. 13:06also includes the Luhansk region. And
  371. 13:08even if Putin is exaggerating—and he
  372. 13:11might be, yes, exaggerating—
  373. 13:13nevertheless, everything is correct. 90
  374. 13:16%of the region is captured, considering
  375. 13:18the Luhansk region.
  376. 13:20Although, why are we being so pedantic?
  377. 13:22As it turns out, Zelensky for some
  378. 13:24reason thinks Kherson is a city divided
  379. 13:26by the war along the Dnieper.
  380. 13:28Even though it is located on the right
  381. 13:29bank. In addition to General Staff
  382. 13:31representatives, the Russian delegation
  383. 13:32includes FSB representatives.
  384. 13:34And the Ukrainian one includes, well,
  385. 13:36those trendsetters from the GUR.
  386. 13:38Let’s be honest, it’s a highly strange
  387. 13:40appearance.
  388. 13:42I mean, you’re not out on a mission,
  389. 13:44like usual, to kill some businessman in
  390. 13:46Europe or something. After all, these
  391. 13:48are negotiations.
  392. 13:49And the delegation is headed by the head
  393. 13:50of the Foreign Intelligence Service,
  394. 13:52Umerov. He is the one through whom
  395. 13:54Mindich offloaded low-quality body armor
  396. 13:56to the army, and whom they wanted to
  397. 13:58appoint as ambassador to the US, but was
  398. 14:00rejected due to corruption scandals.
  399. 14:02Well, now he is leading the delegation.
  400. 14:05A sign that all of this was not in vain
  401. 14:07will be the likely upcoming visits of
  402. 14:09Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv.
  403. 14:12That will mean a second round of
  404. 14:14negotiations is possible.
  405. 14:16For some reason, Kyiv is expecting big
  406. 14:18results from the second round of
  407. 14:20negotiations.
  408. 14:21The US says they also want to clarify
  409. 14:23the parties 'positions first, and only
  410. 14:25then think about what to do next.
  411. 14:28In general, assessments of what is
  412. 14:30happening vary. And at times, they are
  413. 14:32diametrically opposed.
  414. 14:34I already mentioned that the summit in
  415. 14:35China is approaching, where a trilateral
  416. 14:36meeting between Trump, Putin, and Xi
  417. 14:38will take place.
  418. 14:40And it is being viewed as a Yalta-style
  419. 14:42conference, that is, a division of the
  420. 14:44world by superpowers.
  421. 14:46Well, at first, Beijing made it clear
  422. 14:48that a distant war is Europe's business
  423. 14:50, let Europe deal with it.
  424. 14:52Then the Republicans lost the
  425. 14:53Congressional elections, and Trump
  426. 14:55retains broad authority over foreign
  427. 14:57policy.
  428. 14:58And he will arrive at the Asian summit
  429. 15:01without any cards to play. Rumor has it
  430. 15:03that the meeting itself is under threat
  431. 15:05because the Chinese side has set quite
  432. 15:06clear conditions so that no one kicks up
  433. 15:08a fuss.
  434. 15:09Everyone must present pre-agreed talking
  435. 15:12points.
  436. 15:16The US is resisting this, but let’s be
  437. 15:19honest, the ball is not in their court.
  438. 15:22Zelenskyy also previously criticized
  439. 15:24Yalta-2, saying that a Trump security
  440. 15:26agreement in Europe would be potentially
  441. 15:28dangerous because it would decide things
  442. 15:31for Ukraine.
  443. 15:32In general, the negotiations currently
  444. 15:34taking place are largely a tribute to
  445. 15:36the American side for managing to settle
  446. 15:38the situation in Oleshky.
  447. 15:40People wrote about Oleshky back then,
  448. 15:42remember, they were eating bark, they
  449. 15:43had eaten all the dogs. By the way, I am
  450. 15:45very happy for the dogs and cats that
  451. 15:47were brought there in significant
  452. 15:49numbers, and they were eating food and
  453. 15:50all that.
  454. 15:52So. At the same time, no new ceasefires
  455. 15:54are on the horizon.
  456. 15:56Unlike the European side, the Russians
  457. 15:58are insisting on an all-encompassing
  458. 16:00agreement rather than local or thematic
  459. 16:02ceasefires.
  460. 16:03And here, too, views differ.
  461. 16:07While the US relates to such an approach
  462. 16:09with understanding, Zelenskyy is
  463. 16:11shouting that broad plans to stop the
  464. 16:13war mean Putin has no desire to stop the
  465. 16:15war.
  466. 16:17And he generally won't agree to anything
  467. 16:19less than NATO membership.
  468. 16:22Therefore, for now, the main success we
  469. 16:23would like to believe in is another
  470. 16:25large-scale prisoner exchange and that's
  471. 16:27it. And, uh, now the mutual destruction
  472. 16:29of infrastructure has started happening
  473. 16:32again.
  474. 16:33But in Kyiv, they are seriously afraid
  475. 16:35that Ukraine will essentially be divided
  476. 16:37along the Dnieper, since there have
  477. 16:39already been precedents for disabling
  478. 16:41bridges, even under the capital's air
  479. 16:43defense umbrella, and it is the most
  480. 16:44powerful in Ukraine.
  481. 16:47Ukraine, in turn, is systematically
  482. 16:49bombing oil refineries, raising the
  483. 16:51stakes. Look, five years ago, the
  484. 16:53Russian Federation entered into certain
  485. 16:56negotiations on European security
  486. 16:58architecture, threatening a
  487. 17:00military-technical response otherwise.
  488. 17:04Back then, they decided these were empty
  489. 17:06threats. The Russian Federation showed
  490. 17:08what it meant.
  491. 17:11Whether it was done correctly,
  492. 17:12incorrectly, and so on—that remains
  493. 17:14beside the point. They just spoke,
  494. 17:16people didn't believe it, and they did
  495. 17:17it.
  496. 17:19The same threats are more or less being
  497. 17:22voiced against the uncooperative
  498. 17:23Europeans who say: no, it will be this
  499. 17:26way here and that way there.
  500. 17:28What will that be? A nuclear strike on
  501. 17:30Europe? Well, no, most likely not.
  502. 17:33We remember how Russia demanded that the
  503. 17:35West deny Ukraine entry into NATO,
  504. 17:37forbid the deployment of troops, and so
  505. 17:38on.
  506. 17:40And I wonder, back then it was perceived
  507. 17:42as a bluff, but something actually
  508. 17:44happened.
  509. 17:46Is it right for Europe to escalate the
  510. 17:48conflict now, knowing that if things go
  511. 17:51wrong, their main military partner, on
  512. 17:54whom everything depends, might not come
  513. 17:57to the rescue?
  514. 18:00I don't know. Of course, you could
  515. 18:02really think that, like, well, it’s all
  516. 18:04bull, they won't use nukes. No, they
  517. 18:06won't.
  518. 18:07But on the other hand, who the hell
  519. 18:08knows?
  520. 18:09Even if the Russian Federation continues
  521. 18:12to destroy infrastructure and bomb
  522. 18:14Ukrainian cities, making them
  523. 18:15uninhabitable, it will inevitably affect
  524. 18:17Europe in any case.
  525. 18:19Ah,
  526. 18:22with the displaced people who will come
  527. 18:24to Europe, and Europe is already, let’s
  528. 18:26say, well, overwhelmed with refugees.
  529. 18:29Secondly, with money. Most importantly,
  530. 18:31money, because even more money will have
  531. 18:32to be allocated. They can't even handle
  532. 18:34what they’ve already promised.
  533. 18:37So we are watching, you know, I clearly
  534. 18:39see who is the bicycle in this structure
  535. 18:41, who is one wheel, the second wheel,
  536. 18:43and who is the stick that keeps getting
  537. 18:45jammed into the spokes.
  538. 18:47>> The second day of negotiations has
  539. 18:49concluded. I hadn't even managed to
  540. 18:51record a video about the first day, I
  541. 18:53was watching closely, and the second day
  542. 18:55of negotiations has ended. What was
  543. 18:57achieved? Because many people watched
  544. 18:59this wide-eyed, expecting something
  545. 19:02tasty to fall their way. In short, they
  546. 19:04thought they would actually achieve
  547. 19:07something, accomplish something.
  548. 19:09I assumed, in principle, that the main
  549. 19:12and only thing we could actually see
  550. 19:14come of this would be an agreement on a
  551. 19:16prisoner exchange.
  552. 19:18And that is what happened.
  553. 19:19An agreement on a prisoner exchange.
  554. 19:22We haven't heard of any other agreements
  555. 19:25reached, and the negotiations...in short
  556. 19:28, coordination continues, and so on.
  557. 19:32Vladimir Medinsky stated that they
  558. 19:34managed to reach an understanding on a
  559. 19:36number of issues, however, disagreements
  560. 19:38remain.
  561. 19:39The parties exchanged positions and
  562. 19:41intend to continue, well, the dialogue.
  563. 19:45However, the Russian side says outright
  564. 19:47that a Band-Aid won't fix this; it is
  565. 19:49necessary to solve the main, fundamental
  566. 19:52thing, and that is a new system of
  567. 19:54European security architecture.
  568. 19:58There are so many statements today about
  569. 20:00how Putin is ready to meet even with
  570. 20:02Merz, that he is open and all the rest
  571. 20:04to communicate with the Europeans and
  572. 20:07even with the zealous Merz, who is the
  573. 20:09Prime Minister of Ukraine, as you know.
  574. 20:12There. But on the territorial issue,
  575. 20:15there is no softening of positions.
  576. 20:18Medinsky himself replied that every inch
  577. 20:21of our land will be returned to Russia,
  578. 20:23one way or another.
  579. 20:25Well, what borders are implied, no one
  580. 20:27knows. What does Kyiv say?
  581. 20:30David Arakhamia says these were the most
  582. 20:34difficult negotiations he has
  583. 20:36participated in since 2022.
  584. 20:41The Russians arrived with very strict
  585. 20:42directives, so softening the course of
  586. 20:44the discussion was extremely difficult.
  587. 20:48I wonder why the Russians arrived with
  588. 20:51such rigid positions? After all,
  589. 20:54everything was a bit softer back in 2022
  590. 20:57. And in 2022, such a rigid position
  591. 21:00certainly did not exist.
  592. 21:02That window of opportunity was wide open
  593. 21:06, and it is being recalled more and more
  594. 21:10often.
  595. 21:11Why did you refuse to settle at the very
  596. 21:15end of that situation?
  597. 21:17Why was it necessary to drag this out
  598. 21:20for 5 years just to reach the same point
  599. 21:22, where they are ready for so much more
  600. 21:24?
  601. 21:25Well, not just the same point, but they
  602. 21:26are ready for much more than was asked
  603. 21:27for back then. But the Russians no
  604. 21:29longer agree, because it’s not just an
  605. 21:31inch of land, they will return
  606. 21:32everything, and so on. Here, of course,
  607. 21:34there are also questions about what
  608. 21:36exactly they will return and within what
  609. 21:37borders.
  610. 21:39Because this attempt to change borders
  611. 21:41just to announce something looks
  612. 21:43somewhat strange.
  613. 21:45Nevertheless, those are Arakhamia’s
  614. 21:47words, a very tough position, and that
  615. 21:48is why it was difficult.
  616. 21:51Budanov refused to disclose Russia's
  617. 21:53demands regarding Ukrainian troops in
  618. 21:55Donbas.
  619. 21:56He said only the result matters; when we
  620. 21:59achieve it, it will be announced
  621. 22:01publicly. So, in other words, he neither
  622. 22:04confirms nor denies Russian demands on
  623. 22:06this matter.
  624. 22:08What do the U.S. say?
  625. 22:10The U.S. is satisfied.
  626. 22:12And both special envoys say that
  627. 22:14everything is fine, everything is
  628. 22:16progressing well.
  629. 22:17Now they will fly to Moscow again to
  630. 22:19meet with Putin, and after that to
  631. 22:22Dublin to meet with Zelensky.
  632. 22:24I will note, today it was very...
  633. 22:26because Zelensky is a real damn jackal,
  634. 22:29a son of a jackal.
  635. 22:31For as soon as Trump has problems with
  636. 22:34the elections, the midterms, Zelensky
  637. 22:37instantly, not only that, he practically
  638. 22:41insults Trump, makes fun of him.
  639. 22:45Moreover, some translate that he made a
  640. 22:48joke while in Denmark about Trump and
  641. 22:50Greenland.
  642. 22:52But some there translate, someone, it’s
  643. 22:54not just someone, he says...
  644. 23:05someone about Trump, hee-hee-ha-ha, a
  645. 23:07real jackal and scum who is immediately
  646. 23:10looking for a new master.
  647. 23:12Kushner did not announce an early
  648. 23:14personal meeting between Putin and
  649. 23:15Zelensky, and generally, I doubt it will
  650. 23:17happen.
  651. 23:19There is neither sympathy nor trust
  652. 23:21between the leaders.
  653. 23:23Kushner separately asked Europe to
  654. 23:25finally provide some kind of negotiator
  655. 23:27.
  656. 23:28They are discussing all sorts of
  657. 23:29different people, but it always comes
  658. 23:31back to whom?
  659. 23:33Kallas, von der Leyen—no one will talk
  660. 23:35to them; that has been stated many, many
  661. 23:37times.
  662. 23:38Medinsky, for his part, reported that
  663. 23:40the Russian delegation did not speak
  664. 23:42with European representatives in Abu
  665. 23:44Dhabi.
  666. 23:45So, European security was discussed
  667. 23:47without the Europeans after all.
  668. 23:49In short, the practical result is an
  669. 23:51exchange, as General Zorin, who was
  670. 23:53present there, says, a very large,
  671. 23:55large-scale exchange—a thousand for a
  672. 23:57thousand.
  673. 23:59This means Kyiv will have people to
  674. 24:01fight with again, because the system
  675. 24:03works flawlessly, essentially: liberated
  676. 24:05people are given a break, and then it’s
  677. 24:07back into the fray again.
  678. 24:10I may be assured that it’s not the case
  679. 24:12, but I am personally in touch with
  680. 24:13several such people. Another important
  681. 24:15point: the messages sent contain a
  682. 24:17refutation of The Telegraph’s
  683. 24:19publication regarding a proposal to
  684. 24:20change the administrative borders of the
  685. 24:23regions, which Ukraine allegedly
  686. 24:24rejected.
  687. 24:27However, the screenshots shown there
  688. 24:29don't allow us to understand who exactly
  689. 24:31issued this refutation, so I treat it
  690. 24:33with skepticism.
  691. 24:35All in all, they achieved an exchange
  692. 24:37and that’s it.
  693. 24:39As for the territories, they didn't
  694. 24:41achieve anything. If they didn't reach
  695. 24:42an agreement on the territories—the main
  696. 24:44issue—then they didn't achieve anything
  697. 24:46at all.
  698. 24:47Now, the main thing we are waiting for
  699. 24:49is what news Kushner and Witthoff will
  700. 24:50bring from Moscow.
  701. 24:53We are watching closely, ladies and
  702. 24:55gentlemen; I stand by my opinion that
  703. 24:56absolutely nothing will come of it.
  704. 24:59I wouldn't want to upset anyone, but
  705. 25:01absolutely nothing will come of it. And
  706. 25:03to ensure that no peace or truce or
  707. 25:05anything of the sort happens, I think
  708. 25:07various mechanisms will be activated.
  709. 25:09I will describe some of them today in my
  710. 25:11private Telegram channel—exactly what is
  711. 25:13being planned and what further
  712. 25:14provocations will be carried out.
  713. 25:16That’s all from me, dear friends;
  714. 25:18subscribe so you don't miss anything.
  715. 25:20Love you all, bye.

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