日本砸重金援助印度高鐵!印度卻改用歐洲號誌.東京不滿?德國西門子拿下號誌與列車控制大單!【#全球大爆卦】精華版 — Transcript

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1. 0:00Alright, let's look at this again. India
2. 0:02and Japan have had a falling out. What
3. 0:04is this all about? The high-speed rail
4. 0:05project.
5. 0:06Well, revolving around this high-speed
6. 0:08rail project in western India, it’s
7. 0:10because the two countries previously
8. 0:12signed an agreement stating that Japan
9. 0:14would bring its top-tier Shinkansen
10. 0:16technology to India.
11. 0:19India, aiming to improve its transit and
12. 0:21strengthen infrastructure, naturally
13. 0:23chose Japan.
14. 0:27However, due to land acquisition issues
15. 0:29and various environmental factors in
16. 0:31India, construction has been stalled,
17. 0:33and many problems remain unresolved.
18. 0:37So now, India is saying, "Fine, I’m done
19. 0:40waiting for you, Japan.
20. 0:43I’m going to adopt a European signaling
21. 0:45system," which has left Japan, who hoped
22. 0:47to export the entire system, quite
23. 0:49dissatisfied.
24. 0:51Is Japan being taken for a ride by India
25. 0:53?
26. 0:55Actually, it’s because at the start,
27. 0:57Japan offered a preferential loan with
28. 0:590.1%interest and a 50-year repayment
29. 1:01term to bring the Shinkansen to India.
30. 1:05For Japan, they naturally thought that
31. 1:07if they could develop the Shinkansen in
32. 1:09India, it would serve as another form of
33. 1:11promotion for their rail technology.
34. 1:19The interest was low, and the repayment
35. 1:21terms looked great, but official tender
36. 1:23documents for India's national
37. 1:24high-speed rail show that the signaling
38. 1:27system for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad line...
39. 1:29...the train control, communications,
40. 1:31and operation control center systems, a
41. 1:33contract worth about 41.4 billion rupees
42. 1:35, have been awarded to a consortium
43. 1:37formed by India's DRA and Germany's
44. 1:39Siemens.
45. 1:47That was a long way of saying that even
46. 1:49though they were supposed to work
47. 1:50together, India ended up awarding the
48. 1:52contract to Germany's Siemens to install
49. 1:54a European signaling system instead.
50. 2:00In other words, everyone feels that
51. 2:02Japan's high expectations of building
52. 2:04the Shinkansen in India have now come to
53. 2:06nothing.
54. 2:07Additionally, India said they want to
55. 2:09use domestically produced trains first,
56. 2:11because as we all know, the Shinkansen
57. 2:13was supposed to use Japanese trains.
58. 2:17But India claims they can't wait because
59. 2:19they have a major event coming up.
60. 2:25They want to open part of the high-speed
61. 2:27line before the 80th anniversary of
62. 2:28independence in August 2027, so they are
63. 2:31adopting the European signaling system
64. 2:33and using their own locally produced
65. 2:34train cars.
66. 2:39In other words, if Japan keeps building
67. 2:41it, the whole Shinkansen line will
68. 2:43become a hodgepodge, but that’s just
69. 2:45India, isn't it?
70. 2:47Let’s ask Jian-chang right away, what’s
71. 2:49your take, Jian-chang?
72. 2:52>> Well, India is just India, progressing
73. 2:54from mild to moderate to severe.
74. 2:59Speak.
75. 3:00>> It’s no surprise India is doing this,
76. 3:02because a certain small island in East
77. 3:04Asia did the same thing.
78. 3:09Back then—just like how we now even have
79. 3:11to discuss whether you can just sit in
80. 3:13an unreserved seat if you need to use
81. 3:15the restroom—Taiwan High Speed Rail
82. 3:17actually faced similar issues.
83. 3:24The turnouts we mentioned back then were
84. 3:26actually from the German system, not the
85. 3:28Shinkansen system, but the rolling stock
86. 3:30part is definitely Shinkansen.
87. 3:35So, we see now that we fell into Japan's
88. 3:37trap; how many times more did you pay
89. 3:39for those train cars compared to the
90. 3:41last time?
91. 3:44It definitely exceeded it, they even
92. 3:46mentioned ten times, why?
93. 3:50Because they had you figured out—you
94. 3:52can’t build it yourself, just like India
95. 3:54, so this certain small island in East
96. 3:55Asia is even worse than India because it
97. 3:57still can't build this Shinkansen system
98. 3:59.
99. 4:03But honestly, I don't know who would
100. 4:05dare to ride in a rail vehicle built by
101. 4:07India.
102. 4:13And this part, the part we just
103. 4:15mentioned, is exactly what India is
104. 4:16doing now; they are actually trying to
105. 4:18follow the path of this certain East
106. 4:20Asian island.
107. 4:29I’m hedging my bets, showing favor to
108. 4:31Japan while also gaining support from
109. 4:33Europe, and on top of that, fostering a
110. 4:35domestic vehicle industry.
111. 4:40It looks like a great move, but how is
112. 4:43Japan going to swallow this?
113. 4:47I don’t know why, because if we look at
114. 4:49it, for a high-speed rail system, the
115. 4:51rolling stock is one part, the track
116. 4:53system is another, and then there's the
117. 4:55civil engineering system.
118. 5:01The track system we mentioned includes
119. 5:03the signaling system as well, and
120. 5:05there’s also the civil engineering; for
121. 5:07example, the Taiwan High Speed Rail on
122. 5:09that certain East Asian island actually
123. 5:11uses European concepts and standards for
124. 5:13its tunnel profiles and track gauge.
125. 5:20So ours is a hybrid type of high-speed
126. 5:22rail, but India’s high-speed rail is an
127. 5:24even more intense hybrid, because they
128. 5:26even want to build the vehicles
129. 5:27themselves.
130. 5:30Why did they even think of building the
131. 5:32vehicles themselves?
132. 5:35Because they saw the lesson from Taiwan
133. 5:37—that Japan would surely earn their
134. 5:39money back through the vehicles later on
135. 5:41.
136. 5:46This tells both Eastern nations like
137. 5:47Japan and Western European countries
138. 5:49that it’s nearly impossible to fully
139. 5:51profit from India.
140. 5:55Ultimately, they want to foster their
141. 5:57own domestic systems.
142. 5:58And once you decide to foster a domestic
143. 6:01system, well, I'm sorry, we’ll just have
144. 6:03to see how Europe and Japan respond to
145. 6:05that.
146. 6:06However, let’s look at some data: as of
147. 6:09October 7, 2024, the Jakarta-Bandung
148. 6:11High-Speed Railway, built by Mainland
149. 6:14China for Indonesia—wait, Indonesia, not
150. 6:16India.
151. 6:18>> It has already served 5.79 million
152. 6:20passengers with zero incidents.
153. 6:23So, what does that mean?
154. 6:26It means that you truly have to turn to
155. 6:28the "infrastructure maniacs" to solve
156. 6:30your infrastructure problems.
157. 6:33Anyone else you try to scrape together
158. 6:35is just, well, a makeshift amateur team
159. 6:37.
160. 6:39Mhm.
161. 6:41And regarding this high-speed rail case
162. 6:44, Kyodo News reported that the
163. 6:45construction cost has jumped from about
164. 6:48980 billion rupees in 2015 to 1.87
165. 6:50trillion rupees now, and there’s still a
166. 6:52possibility of future delays.
167. 6:56So, can this high-speed railway actually
168. 6:58be completed?
169. 7:00Is there a way to replicate the Japanese
170. 7:02Shinkansen in India? Let’s ask Da-Qian
171. 7:04right away. Da-Qian, what’s your take?
172. 7:07>> Yes, I think the county magistrate has
173. 7:09already analyzed it very thoroughly for
174. 7:11everyone.
175. 7:15When Japan wanted to take a bite of this
176. 7:17juicy piece of meat, they undoubtedly
177. 7:18hoped to export the entire package,
178. 7:20making everything based on Japanese
179. 7:22standards so they could corner the
180. 7:24market, which is why they offered such
181. 7:26low-interest loans.
182. 7:30The rates are very low, 0.1 percent or
183. 7:32so.
184. 7:36But their original plan was very
185. 7:38calculating: since I’m exporting the
186. 7:40whole package, the tracks, the
187. 7:41infrastructure, the vehicles, and the
188. 7:43signaling equipment would all be
189. 7:45Japanese.
190. 7:48Once he locked in those Japanese
191. 7:50standards, he would have an endless
192. 7:51stream of business! Because they are
193. 7:53Japanese standards, you have to continue
194. 7:55using Japanese components to maintain
195. 7:57them.
196. 7:58Including subsequent maintenance and
197. 8:00future vehicle purchases—Japan had a
198. 8:02very clever plan, and it did look good
199. 8:04at the time since they even signed a
200. 8:06contract.
201. 8:08But who knew they would run into India?
202. 8:10They ran into India, and I think
203. 8:11everyone finally understands now, right
204. 8:13? When it comes to India, signing a
205. 8:15contract doesn't necessarily help; it's
206. 8:16often ineffective. India has a history
207. 8:18of seizing people's assets and taking
208. 8:19advantage of others, and the whole world
209. 8:21has suffered because of it. Not long ago
210. 8:23, we were discussing how Chinese mobile
211. 8:25phone factories in India were facing the
212. 8:27exact same situation, right? They just
213. 8:29inexplicably take over your operations,
214. 8:31or out of nowhere, they hit you with
215. 8:33fines. So I think Japan is a bit naive,
216. 8:35perhaps failing to read the situation
217. 8:36well. Look, China probably wouldn't have
218. 8:38taken this deal because of past lessons
219. 8:40; they would have felt it was too risky
220. 8:42. Now, Japan has lost both its
221. 8:43investment and its pride. You gave them
222. 8:45a 0.1%interest rate, and in return, they
223. 8:47went and changed all these terms on you
224. 8:49. Of course, if Japan were tougher and
225. 8:51played hardball like India, they could
226. 8:53perhaps adjust the interest rate or call
227. 8:55it quits.
228. 8:56You could say, "This interest rate was
229. 8:58for a full package export; if you're
230. 9:00making the cars yourself and using
231. 9:02European equipment, then that rate no
232. 9:04longer applies."
233. 9:05It might be possible, it just depends on
234. 9:07whether Japan is willing to stand up to
235. 9:09India. So, I really wonder, after India
236. 9:11pulled this move, will Japan just
237. 9:13swallow it? If the costs have become
238. 9:15this high, it's a complete money-loser
239. 9:17for Japan. Is it possible for them to
240. 9:19terminate the contract early and just
241. 9:20walk away? That seems unlikely. But what
242. 9:23I want to say is that after India does
243. 9:24this, I guarantee that no other country
244. 9:26in the world will dare to help them with
245. 9:27infrastructure projects again. From now
246. 9:29on, India should just build its own
247. 9:31infrastructure. Don't ask others to help
248. 9:33you anymore, because no one wants to,
249. 9:34and no one dares to. If I build your
250. 9:36infrastructure and lend you money, only
251. 9:38to get cheated, why would I do it?
252. 9:40>> In a way, I think it's fitting; Japan
253. 9:42has been bullying the weak and fearing
254. 9:44the strong for so long.
255. 9:45It’s rare for them to encounter a true
256. 9:47villain, and now that they've met a
257. 9:49swindler like India, they deserve what
258. 9:51they get.
259. 9:52Alright, let me provide some more
260. 9:54information for everyone.
261. 9:55I just went back and looked at that
262. 9:57Kyodo News report.
263. 10:00You see, when the Indian side said, "
264. 10:02Okay, we need to rush to open parts of
265. 10:04the high-speed rail before their 80th
266. 10:06anniversary of independence in August
267. 10:082027," they needed to speed things up,
268. 10:10which is why they decided to introduce
269. 10:12this European signaling system.
270. 10:17Ever since the news from New Delhi broke
271. 10:19on November 9th, the Japanese side has
272. 10:21protested quite strongly.
273. 10:24That’s how Kyodo News phrased it—the
274. 10:26Japanese side expressed intense
275. 10:28dissatisfaction.
276. 10:30As the divide between the two sides
277. 10:32continues to grow, outside observers are
278. 10:34concerned.
279. 10:37In fact, this original high-speed rail
280. 10:39line in India was intended to connect
281. 10:41Ahmedabad and Mumbai in the west,
282. 10:43spanning about 500 kilometers with a
283. 10:45travel time of just two hours.
284. 10:48The project broke ground in 2017, and it
285. 10:50was supposed to open in 2023. It was
286. 10:52meant to be running in 2023, but now,
287. 10:54there’s not even a shadow of it to be
288. 10:57seen.
289. 10:58Well, they say they want to open it by
290. 11:00Independence Day in August 2027, so they
291. 11:02are rushing to get a section of the line
292. 11:04operational first.
293. 11:06But looking at the current situation,
294. 11:08the rift between the two sides is quite
295. 11:10significant. Is there really a way for
296. 11:11them to continue building this? Will
297. 11:13this so-called Japanese Shinkansen dream
298. 11:15end in failure in India? Their
299. 11:17reputation completely ruined. Let me ask
300. 11:20Xiao. Let me first make a correction.
301. 11:22The price I mentioned just now was wrong
302. 11:24. It’s not 10 times, it’s 2.5 times.
303. 11:27However, that’s still 1.5 times the
304. 11:29market price. What does that mean?
305. 11:32It means I’m buying a high-speed train
306. 11:33at the price of an airplane.
307. 11:36Just look at the massive difference
308. 11:38there.
309. 11:39But is it even possible to operate it
310. 11:41like that?
311. 11:43If we look at what India is doing now,
312. 11:45what does it mean?
313. 11:48It’s a done deal!
314. 11:49You, Japan, are taking your sweet time,
315. 11:51slowly poking around.
316. 11:54Meanwhile, their rolling stock—the
317. 11:56trains themselves—are being built faster
318. 11:58and faster.
319. 12:01It doesn't matter, the speed doesn't
320. 12:03matter, but in the end, Japan makes less
321. 12:05and less money.
322. 12:10The result is just as Commissioner
323. 12:11Da-Chien said: you put in the lowest bid
324. 12:13, then one-third of the rail system gets
325. 12:16taken away by someone else, and then
326. 12:17India decides to build their own cars,
327. 12:19taking away another third.
328. 12:24You’re only left with one-third.
329. 12:27Is this business deal actually worth it
330. 12:28for you?
331. 12:30>> I, I’d like to add something.
332. 12:32Just like what Jian-Chang mentioned
333. 12:34earlier, the plan was originally for
334. 12:36Japan to handle everything and do it all
335. 12:38—essentially to build an Indian
336. 12:40Shinkansen from start to finish. But now
337. 12:42, the Indian side is saying: "We'll use
338. 12:44your Japanese tracks, your Japanese rail
339. 12:46systems, European signaling, but we'll
340. 12:48use our own domestically produced trains
341. 12:50." So, the Japanese side is saying this
342. 12:52is a chaotic mess, a total disaster—do
343. 12:54we really still want to build this?
344. 12:56They’ve completely fallen out, haven’t
345. 12:58they? Usually, that’s how India thinks.
346. 13:01To be honest, beyond just wanting to
347. 13:03take advantage of Japan or squeeze them
348. 13:05for benefits, they have further
349. 13:07considerations—they want to steal
350. 13:08Japan's Shinkansen technology.
351. 13:11>> That’s why they’re thinking about
352. 13:12whether they can manufacture the trains
353. 13:14themselves. If they try to do that,
354. 13:16Japan will inevitably have to send
355. 13:17engineers to assist, because this entire
356. 13:19system is made by Japan. Even if it's a
357. 13:21hodgepodge system, you can't just watch
358. 13:23a piece of junk train running on the
359. 13:25tracks, so I think India is being very
360. 13:27calculating. Japan has really lost out
361. 13:29this time; they’ve thrown good money
362. 13:30after bad. So, I fundamentally believe
363. 13:32that completing this project on schedule
364. 13:34will be very difficult. Next could be
365. 13:35lawsuits, or a halt in supplies, and the
366. 13:37whole project might just be scrapped—
367. 13:39all of these are possibilities, right?
368. 13:41Because for Japan, with such a low
369. 13:43annual interest rate of 0.1%, to get
370. 13:45something like this—which, as mentioned
371. 13:47earlier, is only a third of what it
372. 13:49should be—and possibly even having their
373. 13:51technology stolen, there’s really no
374. 13:53benefit to them in this whole process.
375. 13:55Yes, and previously, a Japanese official
376. 13:57was so angry that they publicly stated
377. 13:59that if this project fails, it’s all
378. 14:01India’s fault.
379. 14:02>> Well, of course it’s India’s fault, but
380. 14:05India doesn't care. What’s the use of
381. 14:07blaming them? If you go to India, would
382. 14:08you dare to drink their water? You
383. 14:10wouldn’t, but do you blame India for
384. 14:12that? You wouldn't dare, would you?
385. 14:13>> Wait, didn’t the Japanese Ambassador to
386. 14:15India drink it last time? I recall he
387. 14:17drank water from the Ganges.
388. 14:20He didn't tell us how many sick days he
389. 14:22took afterward, whether he had diarrhea
390. 14:24, or how many antibiotics he took
391. 14:25beforehand.
392. 14:27Never mind others; didn’t Kaohsiung
393. 14:29Mayor Chen Chi-mai’s team take their own
394. 14:31bottled water when they went there?
395. 14:34You don't even dare buy bottled water
396. 14:36locally, so who would dare protest
397. 14:38against India, right?
398. 14:40So these protests are useless; they’re
399. 14:42ineffective, and they’ve already boarded
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