15-Min ORB Strategy: Why Most Traders Lose (And How to Fix It) — Transcript

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1. 0:00The 15minute orb strategy is everywhere
2. 0:03right now, but most traders are losing
3. 0:05money with it. Why? Because it's
4. 0:07predictable and the smart money uses it
5. 0:10to trap you. So, let me show you what's
6. 0:12actually going on and potentially how to
7. 0:14use this setup the right way. Arian,
8. 0:16this video is for you. And for those of
9. 0:17you that don't know, every single week I
10. 0:19make a personalized video response to
11. 0:21one of your questions from the previous
12. 0:23video's comments. Arian asked, "Can you
13. 0:25make a video on the 15-minute orb
14. 0:27strategy?" Absolutely, bro. Let's get
15. 0:29into it. The strategy sounds simple.
16. 0:31Mark the high and the low of the first
17. 0:3315-minute candle after the New York open
18. 0:36from 9:30 to 9:45 Eastern Standard Time.
19. 0:39If the price breaks above, go long. If
20. 0:42the price breaks below, go short. It's
21. 0:45supposed to give you one clean breakout
22. 0:48trade every morning. But here's the
23. 0:50truth. Most of the time, the first move
24. 0:52is a trap. institutions know retail
25. 0:56traders use this strategy. So they fake
26. 0:58the breakout, grab the stop- losses and
27. 1:01reverse. Now they say to trade this on
28. 1:04high volatility assets like the NAS 100,
29. 1:07the S&P 500, even gold. So let's look at
30. 1:10gold and see exactly how this is working
31. 1:13out long term. So the concept is very
32. 1:15simple. Mark the high and mark the low
33. 1:18of the first 15-minute candle of the
34. 1:20day. Draw a range across this candle. If
35. 1:22a candle breaks out of this range and
36. 1:25closes above this range, you go long. If
37. 1:27it closes below, you go short. And to
38. 1:30not trade within the range, you put your
39. 1:31stop loss below the range. And I'm being
40. 1:33very conservative here using a 1:1.5
41. 1:37risk-to-reward ratio. And this is
42. 1:39theoretically how it should play out.
43. 1:41But if you continue going on each day,
44. 1:44you can see we got stopped out. We hit a
45. 1:46loss, a win, a loss, a loss, another
46. 1:49loss, another loss. and to be
47. 1:52determined. So, of the last eight
48. 1:54trading days on gold, you had two wins
49. 1:57and five losses. This one is to be
50. 2:00determined, but it looks like it's going
51. 2:01to be a winner. So, just using the last
52. 2:03eight trading days, we have
53. 2:064.5% profits, but 5% losses, which means
54. 2:11we're down half a percent in eight days.
55. 2:13It's like you've wasted a week. Key
56. 2:15things that you have to remember here
57. 2:17about any type of market structure and
58. 2:19liquidity. Liquidity pools live above
59. 2:22and below ranges. Fake outs trigger
60. 2:25breakouts which leads to a reversal. Orb
61. 2:28has no context, no trend, no structure,
62. 2:33and no liquidity. It's not keeping these
63. 2:35in mind. If you enter a trade because
64. 2:38price broke the box, you're basically
65. 2:41trading blind. Now, that doesn't mean
66. 2:43that the orb is useless. It just needs
67. 2:45more context. Here's how to fix it. Only
68. 2:48trade orb in the direction of the higher
69. 2:51time frame trend like the 15minute or
70. 2:53the 1 hour bias. Watch for fakeouts and
71. 2:56then trade the re-entry back inside the
72. 2:59range and add confirmation structure
73. 3:03breaks, liquidity sweeps, or even tools
74. 3:05and indicators. So, even something as
75. 3:08simple as drawing out a trend line and
76. 3:11using tools like Fibonacci is going to
77. 3:14keep you out of these useless trades
78. 3:17when you know that after a large move,
79. 3:19price is likely to pull back to a
80. 3:21Fibonacci retracement level and also
81. 3:23reject off of that. Which is why after
82. 3:25we had the rejection, we had a winning
83. 3:28trade using the Orb strategy. On this
84. 3:31example, we've broken the downtrend to
85. 3:34the upside, but the orb strategy is
86. 3:36telling us to go short. We would know
87. 3:38using extra confluences that that was
88. 3:41not a good option. Same with this one.
89. 3:43We are still trading above that
90. 3:45downtrend line. Why would you go short
91. 3:48into it? If you want to use the orb
92. 3:50strategy the way that you're using it
93. 3:51now, that's fine. But what I want you to
94. 3:54do is learn more information. Learn
95. 3:58about liquidity sweeps. Learn about
96. 4:00market structure. Learn about the key
97. 4:02Fibonacci zones that price likes to
98. 4:04retrace to based on supply and demand of
99. 4:08that asset in that time frame.
100. 4:10Basically, the orb strategy can work,
101. 4:12but you can't use the orb strategy as
102. 4:15like the cheat code of day trading.
103. 4:17There are way better trading strategies
104. 4:19than this. There are also indicators
105. 4:20that can help you do this better, but
106. 4:23you need more education than drawing a
107. 4:25box around a single candle. That just
108. 4:26kind of sounds like common sense to me.
109. 4:28So, shameless plug. If you're looking
110. 4:30for a place where you can learn
111. 4:31absolutely everything in a step-by-step
112. 4:32guided process, just go to trdfloor.com.
113. 4:35Also, a massive teaser I'm probably not
114. 4:37supposed to talk about. Uh, we're
115. 4:39releasing a learn as you earn program.
116. 4:41So, you better get in now before the
117. 4:43price goes up. If you guys enjoyed this
118. 4:44video and you got some value out of it,
119. 4:46leave a like down below. Or if you have
120. 4:47a specific question on day trading,
121. 4:49leave it in the comment section down
122. 4:50below. Thanks so much for watching and
123. 4:52we will see you in the next one.