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ОФЗ: ФЛОАТЕРЫ против ДАЛЬНИХ ОФЗ-ПД: 13.57%, 13.92%, 15.78%, 20.3%, 36%, 50%+. РАЗБИРАЕМ ПОДРОБНО! — Transcript

by Сергей Змеев · 7,377 words · 1,111 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00The eternal question: where to invest
0:02money and how to preserve it.
0:05Currently, there are many questions
0:07regarding the fact that pension money
0:09will be, so to speak, mandatorily
0:11redirected.
0:14And in connection with this, there are a
0:16huge number of questions both on the
0:19internet, on YouTube, and in the
0:21Telegram channel—if you go there—about
0:23what is actually better to choose:
0:25floaters or, say, long-term OFZs with a
0:28fixed coupon.
0:30Well, because where else would one
0:32reinvest, for instance? Either way, your
0:34money is essentially going to be moved
0:36into OFZs. I will tell you honestly, as
0:38someone who has spent their whole life
0:40in business, I have never really counted
0:42on any pensions, to be honest.
0:45Well, perhaps it's because I turned 18
0:47in 1991, when everything was falling
0:49apart, and ever since then I’ve
0:51understood that
0:55you have to think for yourself. Yes, in
0:56essence, if they are going to be moved
0:58into OFZs anyway, it’s better to do it
1:00yourself so you can allocate them in a
1:02more understandable way. Well, it's
1:03everyone’s own choice, I would say,
1:05everyone’s choice. I am simply saying,
1:07relatively speaking, what I am doing.
1:09And let's now just reason logically
1:11about which OFZs are better to be in.
1:13For example, some 29016 floater or 29020
1:17floater, or maybe 26238 or 26254—the
1:21ones that are more or less clear. We
1:24have calculators for all of this, and in
1:26fact, you don't really need to invent
1:28anything. We just go and look, based on
1:31a number of parameters, at which OFZs
1:33are at the top. Let's break it down step
1:35by step now. So, what are floaters? Let
1:37me explain it for the hundredth time.
1:40A floater is a bond where the principal
1:42, or its price, practically does not
1:45change and stays close to 100 percent,
1:47but its coupon changes depending on what
1:50the key rate or the RUONIA rate, the
1:52interbank rate, is.
1:55Right now, at the beginning of November
1:58, the RUONIA rate is hovering around 14
2:02%, or 13.9%plus or minus, right?
2:05That is, close to the key rate. The key
2:07rate is 14%, and RUONIA is generally
2:09close to it. Well, with a small premium
2:11of some kind. As a rule, a negative one
2:13. So, if the rate is 14%, then RUONIA is
2:16somewhere around 13.9%. But it all
2:18depends on the cost of money and the
2:20banks 'need to borrow. So, plus or minus
2:22, let's say, in the region of 14%. Yes.
2:26And what is the advantage of floaters?
2:29If the key rate suddenly rises, the
2:31coupon is automatically recalculated
2:33accordingly.
2:35Yes. There are, uh, two types of
2:37floaters.
2:38There are those where the average rate
2:40is calculated over 7 days. There are
2:43those where the average is over 6 months
2:45and then recalculated.
2:46People like to take the six-month ones
2:48when rates are high, to get an extra
2:50premium, as it's called, on the coupon
2:53over a long period.
2:55We always base our decisions on two
2:57parameters. We choose OFZ floaters that
2:59are the shortest-term with sufficiently
3:01high liquidity.
3:05However, if you look at any resource you
3:07have—we can check financial analytics on
3:10Fane or Insider, for instance—it's clear
3:12that liquidity for floaters has become
3:15very low.
3:17I mean, if a year ago, floaters had an
3:20average turnover of, say, a billion per
3:23day. Take something like the 29014, it
3:25had a billion. Why? Well, because
3:28long-term OFZs had a very low coupon.
3:31For example, floaters had a coupon close
3:33to 21 percent, while long-term OFZs had
3:36a coupon, well, just like now. For
3:38instance, the 26238 has a coupon of 13.7
3:42%now. The 26254 currently has a 15.7%
3:46coupon. I’ll come back to this in a
3:49moment, just to give you the full
3:50picture.
3:51And of course, a year ago, when the rate
3:54was 21, whenever these long-term OFZs
3:56rose in price, we sold them and moved
3:59into floaters.
4:01Because the coupon was even lower.
4:04I can tell you that the 38 is cheaper
4:06now than it was a year ago.
4:08The price of the 38 was 52, 53, 54, even
4:1260 percent.
4:15That’s why its yield sometimes dropped
4:17to 10 percent.
4:19But the floater, or a bank deposit, was
4:21yielding 21. I repeat, a difference of
4:246-8 percent was almost constant.
4:27So shifting into those was extremely
4:29profitable and attractive. That was the
4:31main strategy.
4:33And there was huge liquidity in floaters
4:35.
4:36There was constant switching between
4:38long-term OFZs, or fixed-coupon OFZs—
4:41yes, fixed-income ones—and floaters.
4:45That was the core strategy.
4:48But now, well, why would you need a
4:50floater?
4:51And that’s why liquidity there is now,
4:53say, 100 million, I don’t know, give or
4:56take. So, liquidity in floaters has
4:58dropped tenfold, just to be clear. Why?
5:02Well, why would I, or a bank, invest in
5:06a floater yielding 13.9 percent if the
5:1126254 gives, say, 15.7, 15.6, 15.8, plus
5:15or minus?
5:18That is, almost 2 percent higher.
5:21Yes, the only point is when people say,
5:23what if the rate goes up?
5:25That’s when floaters, as they’re called
5:28, are supposed to absorb this inflation
5:30, or rather, the rate repricing.
5:32Yes. But, you see, what is the point?
5:35Who strongly believes that, for example
5:37, the rate will be raised now—that's one
5:39thing. Second, one must also understand
5:41that, for instance, the coupon is
5:44already 15.7. So it’s as if the rate is
5:46already at fifteen. This is not counting
5:48the fact that all these long-term OFZs
5:51come with amortization, and they all
5:53have a price below par, lower.
5:55So no matter how you calculate it, by
5:58whatever math you use, the same 54
6:00series gives a yield to maturity of 15.6
6:03to 17 percent.
6:05So you already have to understand that
6:07it’s as if a sixteen or seventeen
6:09percent rate is already priced in, not
6:11fourteen.
6:12And the 26238 at their current price of
6:1651.6, 51.7. Well, by the way, if you
6:18watched the previous episodes, I said
6:20that I was expecting exactly this
6:21correction. When we hit 52.6, I said,
6:24well, there will be a correction down to
6:27around 51.6, 51.5. That’s why I said I
6:29was exiting, among other things. Exiting
6:31, among other things. Well, that’s a
6:33technical question, so to speak. If you
6:35want to, you can learn this history too
6:37, what’s called rebalancing, trading
6:39OFZs. Well, you see, what is the
6:41question? Looking at the market, you can
6:43immediately see the market strategy. And
6:45it is exactly the same as ours in the
6:47project. That there is huge liquidity in
6:50long-term OFZs, that is, precisely the
6:5254th and 38th series, with volumes of
6:541.3 to 1.5 billion per day. So there is
6:57active trading between them, there is a
6:59huge "re-parking" taking place,
7:00accordingly, by banks. Why have banks
7:03actively started to attract funds again
7:05with these conditions of theirs?
7:08"Invest a little, we'll give you a lot
7:10of percent on new money, and so on."
7:13Although, of course, the weighted
7:15average rate on them now is still around
7:1713.5%. Some Sberbank at 12.5%. Well, you
7:21can stretch it to about 13.6, 13.7, 13.8
7:24, close to the key rate. Well, it’s the
7:27same story for banks.
7:29Just imagine, if I could borrow an
7:32infinite amount of money now even at
7:3513.7 and immediately put it into
7:37floaters like, well, 26254, for example
7:41, at 15.7. That is, to have two
7:43percentage points. Besides, one must
7:45understand that banks have a completely
7:46different economy. They can build up all
7:48these leverages within themselves there
7:50. That’s a completely different story.
7:51Therefore, for them, of course, it is
7:53extremely profitable. Based precisely on
7:55this, should one buy floaters?
7:59You see, this is only based on the
8:02expectation that the rate will be higher
8:05than 16%, because only at 16%does the
8:08coupon align with the 26254 bond.
8:14So, before that, it makes no sense at
8:16all.
8:18But we currently have a 14%rate, and
8:20even if the Central Bank says they will
8:22cut less, their rhetoric has become sort
8:25of soft-hawkish now, right?
8:28Well, as they say, there is no room left
8:30for cuts.
8:32You see, I find it hard to imagine a
8:34rate hike right now.
8:36Well, I repeat, if you look at videos
8:38from two or three years ago, I said that
8:41a major reallocation would happen; this
8:43is a game of big money, they will force
8:46a shift. Well, I don't know, you could
8:48buy back a notorious plane now for, I
8:51don't know, maybe 1%of its value, or a
8:53couple of percent of what it originally
8:55cost.
8:57Right? Let's say for 2%of its value.
9:01Regardless, all these assets will be
9:03redistributed in one way or another. A
9:05huge amount of assets is being
9:07redistributed; I repeat, this story is
9:09not from yesterday, it’s at least 150
9:12years old, at least 150 years, that’s
9:14the minimum. You can look back 200 or
9:17300 years, right? Look at what the
9:19Anglo-Saxons did with the South Sea
9:21Company. This redistribution has always
9:23existed. So, debt management and
9:25fighting inflation—that's the first
9:27thing.
9:28To me, honestly, this is a Keynesian
9:31story, the kind Keynes talked about 100
9:33years ago—that you need to distribute
9:35money to support the economy by any
9:38means, this rate management. To me,
9:40honestly, and I’ve been saying this for
9:42a long time, it’s total nonsense. I mean
9:45, trying to fight inflation by boosting
9:47the money supply through deposits, under
9:49the guise that it's being contained
9:50because consumption is being reined in.
9:53But listen, the Japanese spent a bunch
9:56of years containing it, and what did
9:58they actually contain?
9:59No, no, this is, in general, to me a
10:02very strange story, a very strange story
10:05.
10:08The rate should be normal so the economy
10:10can develop; in a normal market economy
10:12, there should simply be a well-stocked
10:15consumer basket, or the opportunity to
10:17spend that money.
10:22But, as I say, that’s a secondary issue
10:24. And I repeat, take the recession in
10:26America—there were several of them, two
10:28or three in the eighties, when they were
10:30fighting inflation. Well, at these
10:32moments, one thing always happens—a
10:34massive redistribution of capital.
10:36Therefore, this fight against inflation
10:38and the redistribution of capital—well,
10:40these are just market mechanisms. And
10:42that’s all, it’s just a market mechanism
10:44.
10:45I’ve been saying for years that big
10:47money is behind everything, regardless
10:49of what’s happening with bonds, stocks,
10:52metals, or currencies.
10:55We see some manifestations here and
10:57there, sure.
10:58In reality, these are just components of
11:01a massive mechanism where politics,
11:03economics, and, conditionally speaking,
11:05private interests are all intertwined.
11:09Why am I bringing this up?
11:12Do I see a trend toward raising the rate
11:14? But that would be too much right now,
11:16I mean, it would be just...
11:19Well, I don't know.
11:21Especially since, by law, Nabiullina is
11:23supposed to be replaced next year. Who’s
11:26coming in her place, Zabotkin?
11:28I mean, on one hand, you could say
11:30anything might happen, anything at all,
11:32but I think there would be such an
11:34outcry if they raised that rate even
11:36slightly.
11:38And the point is, you know, if the goal
11:40was to push markets down, if they needed
11:42to buy everything up from the bottom, as
11:44I said, so the patient was almost dead,
11:46but not quite. Well, it's almost dead
11:49now, yes, the markets are lying at the
11:51bottom, the economy is at the bottom. So
11:53, in theory, in such situations,
11:57the rate should be lowered to, on the
12:00contrary, stimulate economic development
12:02. It’s not quite a pandemic scenario,
12:04but we are in more or less the same kind
12:06of severe force majeure in Russia.
12:09That’s why the rate must be lowered,
12:11definitely lowered. As I’ve said before
12:13, set the rate at 12%, say it’s for 3
12:15years, and that’s it, everything will
12:17normalize. You don't even need to do 8-9
12:20%or talk about your inflation targeting
12:23of 4-5-6%. 12%for 3 years, and set a
12:27dollar corridor, say 82 to 96, or 86 to
12:3096. Everything will normalize in terms
12:33of the economy and business.
12:36Returning to the point that, precisely
12:38because of this, I do not see a trend
12:40toward raising the rate.
12:42Holding it steady—yes, that. Let them
12:45hold it.
12:46A gradual, smooth reduction—maybe
12:48they’ll cut it by 25 basis points at the
12:51December meeting, just so Elvira
12:53Sakhipzadovna looks like some kind of
12:55kind Snegurochka. Quite possible. That
12:58is exactly why I said they would most
13:00likely keep the previous rate, to leave
13:02themselves some leeway for the holidays
13:04, for December. No one has ruled that
13:06out. They’ll set it at 13.75 and hold
13:09that 13.75 until, hell, I don’t know,
13:11until July of next year. But what
13:13difference does it make to us? The
13:15coupon, you see, OFZs are now at such a
13:18fair price, even reaching oversold
13:20territory for long-term OFZs, that I
13:22personally don’t need floaters. When
13:24someone starts talking about linkers,
13:26meaning inflation-linked OFZs, that’s
13:28just complete nonsense. I’ve watched
13:30plenty of episodes about it too. I keep
13:31saying, guys, are you not looking at the
13:33table? Just look, why would you invest
13:35at 7%per annum?
13:37I mean, sure, there's a 2.8%coupon, plus
13:40, like, the official inflation rate.
13:43Well, they officially announce it at
13:45around 6%plus or minus. So you end up
13:48getting your 8%there. I don’t understand
13:50it at all. If they announced that
13:52inflation was 15%and the coupon or yield
13:54was 17%or 18%at the moment. Well, I’d
13:57say, yes, linkers are the way to go. But
14:00right now, I don’t get it at all. That’s
14:02why, to be honest, I’m not even moving
14:04my money into floaters right now. I
14:06personally am not. I mean, this is not
14:08individual investment advice, but I
14:09personally, a long time ago—well, back
14:11in the summer—there was a moment when
14:13part of my holdings were in floaters and
14:15part in cash. It was just before a
14:17meeting, and I was holding another
14:19webinar in real time. I said, I’ve got
14:21about 20%in floaters, just as cash that
14:23could be, so to speak, redeployed later
14:26when long-term OFZs dropped. But now,
14:28basically, everything is in the 38th and
14:3154th issues. Between them, there is,
14:33well, some occasional rebalancing. The
14:36screener resets all the time, meaning
14:38our system tracks it. Sometimes it’s the
14:4152nd, 45th, 46th, or maybe the 53rd.
14:44Sometimes the 48th OFZ becomes one of
14:47them. But these are all 26-series, 26248
14:50, 26253, 254, and so on, right? I’m just
14:54shortening the names. Spreads sometimes
14:56appear between them, and I do the
14:58rebalancing I mentioned. Right now, I
15:00think the 54th and 38th are very good.
15:03The coupon is high: the coupon for the
15:0638th is 13.7, and for the 54th, it’s
15:0915.7.
15:10The price has already undergone a
15:12correction in the RGBI index futures,
15:15just as I said when I closed out many
15:17positions. Just take a look at the chart
15:19. I think I’ve already mentioned this on
15:21this channel a thousand times.
15:24Our project—I want to say our project is
15:27the largest in Russia, but you can’t
15:29really use such superlatives.
15:32I think it is, well, probably one of the
15:34largest bond projects in Russia. We have
15:37over 1,200 people, right? 1,200 people,
15:40and we are not a bank, we are not an
15:42investment firm, and the combined
15:44capital of the participants is colossal
15:46. And again, most have already figured
15:48out this RGBI index. As for rebalancing
15:51between long-term OFZs, most have
15:53figured that out too. But just look at
15:55an example: if you watch the video from
15:58two or three issues ago, I say, look, if
16:00the 38th is at 52.60, a correction to
16:0351.60 is expected, right? Well, I was
16:05talking about all that in that very
16:07video. And I exited it, closed the 54th
16:10with the RGBI index, meaning I sold a
16:12short position, yes, I hedged. What
16:15happened? Well, yes, they started to
16:17fall, the OFZs. The RGBI index started
16:20to go down with them, so it started
16:21accumulating a profit. And then, as
16:24planned, when it went down, I started
16:26gradually, gradually buying back in.
16:28Well, even if the price wasn't the most
16:31ideal, as usual, I still picked them up
16:33at about a percent lower. It’s still an
16:35accumulated profit, you know, which will
16:37be there in the future. Sometimes there
16:40are discrepancies of half a percent or a
16:42percent between them. I can completely
16:44calmly exit one and move into the other
16:45. Moreover, I repeat, we have all these
16:48systems and screeners that track this.
16:50Both for one day, 5 days, or 90 days—
16:52everything is there, all the calculators
16:54are there. There’s no need to make
16:55things up out of thin air. If you go
16:57into the calculator right now, the 26238
16:59will be in first place for everything.
17:02Including yield to maturity. We
17:03calculate it our own way, not YTM, which
17:06recalculates every year when the coupon
17:08changes. I calculate it in the moment.
17:10I’ve invested money now; how much will
17:12it bring me on average annually, taking
17:14amortization and the coupon into account
17:15? 20 percent annually by my math, yes,
17:18you could recalculate year over year and
17:20so on. But we assume that if the math
17:22holds up for the year, then over the
17:24course of that year, 20 percent annually
17:25will be achieved. Well, 20, even if you
17:28do nothing. In standard math, the yield
17:30to maturity is just 20. So why would I
17:32calculate it differently? What for? Next
17:34year, well, next year will be next year
17:37. But even if I invested now until
17:39maturity, the price from these invested
17:41funds is almost 50 percent, well, 51.5.
17:44And by maturity, another 100 percent
17:46should be added. So, let's take a 13.7
17:48coupon and divide 100 percent by 14
17:51years. That adds about another 7 percent
17:54or so. So 13.7 plus 7 gives us a bit
17:57over 20 percent. It’s simple math.
18:00You could argue that the coupon will be
18:02repriced every year, but your invested
18:04capital won’t be repriced.
18:07You will keep receiving that coupon just
18:09as you invested the money. And the price
18:11will head toward 100 percent by maturity
18:13. The 54th, which I’m talking about, is
18:15attractive right now due to the coupon.
18:17And it will remain interesting for the
18:19next year or year and a half, because
18:21its price is still quite low, right?
18:23I think it’s at 83.5. It will reach 100
18:26percent, even 106 or 112 percent, but
18:29then it will eventually go back down. So
18:32right now they are, relatively speaking
18:34, in perfect balance, but at some point
18:36, the 38th will certainly be more
18:37interesting. But that is still probably
18:39a six-month to one-year prospect. That’s
18:42exactly why we discuss this in every
18:44webinar, join the chat, just enter the
18:46chat. It’s a huge chat, imagine that,
18:481,200 people in a private chat. It
18:51depends on what your task and strategy
18:53are.
18:53You can take the 38th, you have 13.7
18:56percent already locked in just from the
18:58coupon for 14 years. Plus, the 100
19:01percent will be repriced regardless.
19:04With the 54th, you’re just getting more
19:06than an average bank deposit. About 2%
19:08more.
19:09That is exactly why I have this kind of
19:11planned distribution right now.
19:14And I repeat, all this is covered by the
19:16RGBI index, and if there is any
19:18correction or volatility, there is
19:20additional yield there.
19:23If there is any price discrepancy
19:25between OFZs due to Ministry of Finance
19:27placements or just some interbank
19:29reallocations.
19:31Nothing stops you from switching from
19:33one OFZ to another just the same. You’re
19:35in the money in both cases. I’ve talked
19:37about this many times.
19:39So, my friends, you understand, the
19:41simplest thing is probably to just get a
19:44deposit. I often tell inexperienced
19:46people: just get a deposit and don’t
19:48overthink it, right? Just don't panic,
19:50like it was at the end of 2023, many
19:53people locked in for 3 years at 12%per
19:55annum. I had a lot of friends like that
19:57. And they spent those 3 years moaning,
19:59asking if they could exit or re-enter. I
20:01told them, don’t twitch, just stay.
20:03Eventually, the bank rate will fall, and
20:06it will be fine. And with capitalization
20:08, it averaged about 15 percent per annum
20:11. Well, it's fine, it all worked out,
20:12everyone forgot and says, "Oh, why was I
20:14worrying?" Not at all. It’s just like
20:16what happened quite recently, by the way
20:18, with palladium. For those of you who
20:19were at the marathon, my friends, yes,
20:21with the metals. Goodness, that was back
20:23when. I had a week-long marathon, a
20:25weekly one, right? Well, what is a
20:27marathon? Well, it's trading, trading,
20:29and a breakdown from A to Z. One day was
20:31open to the public; if you want, go
20:33watch it. By the way, I’m thinking maybe
20:35in two weeks I’ll host something similar
20:37again—an open one, maybe 500 people. And
20:39then 300 in the closed group, those who
20:41followed along—well, the participants
20:43keep changing, coming and going. I mean
20:45, intraday, while the marathon is
20:47running, right? Because I had several
20:49sessions during the day and evening,
20:51lasting an hour or two each. And when
20:53palladium hits, say, 950, listen, it’s
20:56just total hysteria. Everything,
20:58everything, you need to sell and get out
21:01. But look at all the previous videos,
21:03right?
21:04Go into the chat, read it, because in
21:06the Telegram channel, in Max, all the
21:08setups are there.
21:10I repeat, I cannot tell you that you
21:12must buy or that I think everything is
21:14going to hell. I always say, show me the
21:17trade. I haven't said anything else
21:18throughout all these years. And we also
21:20say the same thing in the chat all the
21:22time. You can make a mistake. And I make
21:24mistakes, I’ve made them more than once
21:26, and I’ve been very painfully wrong.
21:28But you are responsible with your own
21:30money. That’s why I show it; I have a
21:32lot at stake, I held up to 170 contracts
21:34of that palladium. I say, well yes,
21:36maybe, damn, there are some margins,
21:38some things left over. So we broke down
21:40this entire methodology, just like with
21:42the federal laws and everything else, a
21:44strict methodology is laid out. I say, I
21:46can't force the market to rise or fall.
21:49I can't. I can only regulate my own
21:52behavior.
21:53I mean, I can redo the algorithm in the
21:56robot, adjust how I buy or sell, just to
21:58ease the load a bit, right? Explaining
22:00the entire logic of the trade. And back
22:02then I said, once we bounce back up,
22:04I’ll shed the volume and restart the
22:06algorithm. And that is exactly what I
22:08did.
22:09Well, back then, what I said on Friday
22:12regarding the releases, right? I
22:14sometimes record a video, and it doesn't
22:16come out until a day later. I say,
22:18listen, we could see a move like this
22:20right now. And that’s exactly what
22:22happened; they just went up 12 or 13%in
22:25two days.
22:27So many people closed out at the bottom
22:29at a loss. Oh, good grief. So many
22:31people closed out their stock positions
22:33at a loss over the summer; they were all
22:35scared.
22:36They were cutting OFZs at the bottom,
22:38too.
22:40You see, the market is 99.999%
22:43psychology. I’ll leave an infinitely
22:45small percentage for something else,
22:47though I don’t even know what. In
22:49reality, I don’t even know what that
22:51would be, because whatever decision you
22:53make, like buying floaters, it’s still
22:55psychology. What if they raise the rate
22:57? Better play it safe.
23:00You shouldn't take the long-term ones
23:01because they are long-term.
23:04Is the credit risk the same? It's the
23:05same. Then what’s the problem? Is the
23:07price low? It’s low. Well, what if? Well
23:10, "what if"—that’s just psychology.
23:12That’s why I leave one thousandth for
23:14some formal math, because a person can
23:16recalculate that math however they want
23:17. 2 + 2 could be 3, could be 20,
23:20anything. Because we’ll calculate 3
23:22cubed, and then some more, and then it’s
23:25not 3, it’s 3 factorial. I mean,
23:29I repeat, there is some formal logic, a
23:31formal one, that you can be guided by.
23:35Why is this better than that right now?
23:38We don't know what will happen in the
23:40future; we can only guess.
23:45That is exactly why, even with OFZs, a
23:48very conservative asset, I say that we
23:50hold private webinars about once a month
23:53, and I explain my point of view based
23:55on what is happening in the world and
23:58the country—macroeconomics,
23:59microeconomics, and various trends.
24:06And then there is only one task: to
24:08figure out how to build a portfolio from
24:10this.
24:12And the next thing is how to account for
24:15potential volatility—which is always
24:17there—the moves, trends, levels, and
24:19ranges, to create an algorithm and
24:22delegate it to a robot. So you don't
24:24have to monitor it yourself every 5
24:26minutes. Just look at this wild
24:29Look at it. I mean, trading it manually
24:31is almost impossible. Almost impossible
24:34. Well, how? Or you just stubbornly hold
24:36on and stand still. But what if we stay
24:38in a wide sideways range for a long time
24:40? Right now, you can ask the
24:42participants—just go into the chat or
24:44the Max Telegram channel, ask them,
24:46especially about the algorithms we made
24:48in the summer, realizing that there
24:49would likely be a wide sideways range,
24:51like our V20 algorithm. It even pulled
24:54the average price down for those who had
24:56it high, like at 56-58.
25:00Yes, of course, that is the main art: to
25:02assume what will happen with market
25:04dynamics, to estimate which trading
25:06model is appropriate, and to apply it.
25:09And as I always say, here the question
25:12is only about one thing, with OFZ bonds
25:14. How much will I earn? The question of
25:16how much I will lose will not come up.
25:18Now, with stocks.
25:20I’ve said this 1,000 times, sometimes I
25:23don’t even want to revisit it. It is a
25:25trading instrument. Meaning you get in,
25:27you take your profit, you get out. Can
25:28you earn more on them than on bonds?
25:30Definitely.
25:32100%.
25:33But you can just lose everything.
25:36Everything. Not everyone has the right
25:38to trade American stocks, only qualified
25:40investors, so I only mention them in
25:42passing. Just now in the workshop, I
25:45showed Intel, for example; it grew,
25:48first of all, in a year from 15 dollars
25:50to 150, or from 17 dollars. Now it has
25:53fallen from 150 to 50, a threefold drop
25:56.
25:57Take Oracle, for instance; last year in
26:00September we shorted it, it was worth
26:03340, now it’s 112.
26:05And there are masses of such examples.
26:08And I’ve been saying for at least a year
26:10, or maybe since April or May, that
26:12everything in America will fall, we are
26:14going to fall. Take Micro, if you were
26:17watching, it was at 1,200, and I said we
26:19would see it at 400. And so on, and so
26:22on, and so on. But the same applies to
26:24Russian stocks. It’s just that they are
26:26at the bottom now. And of course, their
26:28position now, as I said, should have
26:30been theoretical. If you’ve seen my
26:33releases over the last few months, I say
26:35: only sell America—through the S&P
26:37index or however you like—only sell
26:40America, only buy Russia.
26:42That’s it. There are no other options.
26:44But what is the issue?
26:46If you don’t lock in your profit on a
26:48stock, I don't know what it will be
26:50worth after a certain period of time.
26:53It could grow two or three times, and
26:55then drop five or six times, I don’t
26:57know.
26:58With bonds, I know everything. The
27:00question is what comes next, those are
27:02the main points. But then those funds
27:04might end up being worth nothing. Well,
27:06first of all, I’ve done many breakdowns
27:08here on the channel about how you can
27:10capitalize, yes, the coupon. And by the
27:12way, the longer it stays in such a
27:14sideways trend, the higher the coupon,
27:16the greater the final yield. Capital can
27:18grow seven to fourteen times over those
27:2114 years. We just take it that way;
27:23someone says, oh, but later money won't
27:25be worth anything. I’ve done the
27:26analysis; you can look at the market to
27:28see what changed in prices over 14 years
27:30. And what happens if you even, so to
27:32speak, capitalize the coupon. Believe me
27:35, it will still outperform. Yes. The
27:37point is that we still use other
27:39defensive instruments. That is,
27:41regarding those same OFZs, someone
27:43sometimes asks, yeah, well, how do you
27:45separately...
27:46...take currency or metals? I take them
27:48from within the OFZs, as part of the
27:50framework. Well, if you want, I say,
27:52check it out, go to the channel, you’ll
27:53see and look at it all there. That
27:55includes palladium and silver as well.
27:57By the way, right now my allocation is
27:59palladium and silver.
28:01I’ve almost leveled them out. That is,
28:02palladium, it popped up to 1072, well,
28:05there were levels there. It was...well,
28:07I closed it, and the robot closed it.
28:10Now there’s a correction down 40 dollars
28:12to 1036, as the video shows, I’ve
28:14re-entered the position, yes, re-entered
28:17, and started the robot. And then there
28:19was a correction below fifty-two for
28:21silver.
28:22I, well, I’ve sort of leveled out, now I
28:25have a silver position.
28:27And palladium, ruble-denominated gold, I
28:30dumped it all on the rise, well, because
28:32the ruble jumped at that moment, and
28:34gold jumped quite well. I bought it,
28:36well, I talked about it in previous
28:39recordings, yeah, it was somewhere
28:42around 10,200, yeah, for us, well,
28:44220-230, plus or minus, the average was
28:47, of course, a bit higher on gold. And I
28:50dumped it on the rise. I dumped it on
28:52the rise, I say, I don't overthink it.
28:55On the contrary, now on the correction,
28:57I bought a little dollar-ruble again.
29:01Well, you understand, what’s the point?
29:04Well, I’m just in this business, so it’s
29:06understandable, always in the chats,
29:08keeping my finger on the pulse.
29:11But, in essence, there can be investment
29:14accounts where you set some algorithm,
29:16say, set an algorithm on OFZs, I don’t
29:18know, on the RGBI index, or, I don’t
29:20know, on currency or metal. And I’ll
29:23tell you this, depending on the futures
29:25contract, you might not even need to
29:26touch it for half a year.
29:28Well, just watch to make sure, I don't
29:30know, there isn't any connection drop
29:31with the broker. Well, just pure
29:33technical stuff, yeah, maybe hit the
29:35reset button sometimes. Well, purely
29:37technical-wise, you definitely don't
29:39need to stare at it for weeks or months
29:41.
29:42Therefore, you know, all this rhetoric
29:44about floaters, long-term, short-term—
29:46you just need to write it down on a
29:48piece of paper and list the pros and
29:49cons, pros and cons, and pros and cons.
29:51We have all of this already broken down
29:53in our calculators from the start.
29:54Everything is laid out in the
29:56methodology, from A to Z, step by step.
29:58I’ll tell you that, well, there are over
30:011,200 people now, so that's clear.
30:05And the majority of them have figured it
30:06out.
30:07Both pensioners and anyone else. There
30:09was even a question in the chat once
30:11from one of the participants, a newcomer
30:13who just joined, and that's why I always
30:15say, go into the chat and just ask. Well
30:16, not everyone shares their results, but
30:19I am very grateful when people do. A
30:21woman joined and said, "I'm new here,
30:23can you share some results? Will I be
30:25able to figure it out?" Well, those are
30:27just the basic, immediate fears. "Will I
30:29understand it or not, can I grasp all of
30:31this?" And one participant immediately
30:32wrote, "My father is a pensioner, he's a
30:34locksmith by trade." Last year, his
30:36yield on OFZ bonds was 41.5%. That's it
30:39, he's in the project.
30:41Also, at our in-person meetings, I
30:43always just say, "Come on, tell us who
30:45earned what." Well, you see, we go
30:47through all these situations together,
30:50right? Palladium was dropping recently,
30:52and I said, of course, it's not pleasant
30:54to see it crashing, but I knew that this
30:56would happen. Silver was also falling,
30:58right around the time of that in-person
31:00meeting. I was trading it too, I talked
31:01about my approach and my algorithm when
31:03it broke through 50. Well, you know,
31:06this is real trading. This is real life
31:08. If the MOEX Index goes to 2,400, for
31:11example, I buy, then it bounces back up
31:14, and I gradually offload. I don't
31:16really get stuck on anything, so to
31:18speak. The only thing I keep in my
31:20portfolio constantly is OFZ bonds.
31:22Everything else is just a trading
31:23instrument to me. It popped, I closed it
31:25, and that’s it. And I can go for a
31:27while without even looking at it. As for
31:28palladium, I mentioned there was a time
31:30I didn't trade it at all for 3 or 4
31:32months. It just didn't seem interesting
31:34to me. But before that, we only traded
31:35that. Twenty-twenty-four, take a look at
31:37the 2024 videos; I recorded them right
31:39here. In 2024, we started actively
31:41trading it. It was worth around 900 back
31:43then. 900-1,200, so from '24 to '25 we
31:46moved into white metals, just as I said
31:48. I said white metals would outperform
31:50gold in growth. But again, when
31:51everything has grown, what should you do
31:53? Sell. When everyone is yelling, saying
31:56it will last forever. No, you need to
31:58sell.
31:59Sell. And look at the videos here on the
32:02channel, I say: gold is at 5,300-5,600,
32:05I’m selling it. Silver at 124, what were
32:08we doing? We were all selling, the whole
32:10gang, right? Maybe we started entering
32:12earlier somewhere, but the targets were
32:14set right away that we’d exit at 56.
32:17Then, by the way, about three weeks or a
32:20month ago, I recorded a video in Moscow
32:23assuming that if gold were pushed down
32:25further, say by 300 to 3,800, we might
32:28even hit 52 on silver. Yes, I said back
32:31then that I would be choosing which
32:33metals to take. Well, we even sold lower
32:35. Now there are the elections in America
32:37, all these congresses, Democrats,
32:39Republicans. It's all one huge game, too
32:41. Lord, call them whatever you want—
32:44bulls, bears, donkeys—it makes no
32:46difference. They are all about one thing
32:48: money. Alright, my friends. You see, I
32:51even went a bit off-topic, as they say.
32:53Do you know why?
32:54Well, because you will always be
32:56choosing and looking.
32:58You have money, where should you park it
33:00? A bank deposit is the simplest and
33:03calmest way. I agree.
33:06But, I repeat, it’s calm, but it has low
33:08potential. That’s the question. So the
33:11rate is falling, well, what should you
33:13do? You need to reinvest somewhere. But
33:15where? Right? Well, rates were high, of
33:17course, deposits were a great story, but
33:19we still outperformed them by at least
33:21double with OFZs. I mean, some unique
33:24individuals made up to 80%. Just unique
33:26individuals, right? Unique ones, yes.
33:29Well, I would say 40-50%was the norm for
33:332024.
33:34In 2025, people averaged about 30-40%.
33:38Some managed to jump to 60%. So,
33:40basically, when we say up to 70%, that’s
33:43not, let's say, an impossible story.
33:46This year, of course, turned out to be
33:49so anomalous, didn't it?
33:52Meaning the rate cut and the
33:53corresponding increase in coupon yields
33:55on OFZs and the decline in the principal
33:57were anomalous. Well, do you understand
33:59what the point is? It’s the same thing,
34:01just like that question about palladium
34:03earlier; I tell you guys, math will work
34:05, market mechanisms will definitely kick
34:07in. At some point, there will definitely
34:09be growth. At some point, those
34:11long-term OFZs will simply surge by, say
34:14, 20 percent.
34:15By 20 percent, maybe in just 2-3 days.
34:18Has that not happened before? Back in
34:202025, they moved by 16%in just 2-3 days
34:23. It will happen, it will, it definitely
34:25will. The yield will simply be spread
34:27out.
34:28If people invest for 3 years at 12%in a
34:30deposit, like they did in 2023 because
34:32they were waiting, they don't think
34:34about the fact that they're losing out
34:36on 8%a year because the rate is lower.
34:38But if OFZs keep moving back and forth,
34:41they worry. I tell them, spread it out
34:43over three years.
34:45You will still get an average yield of
34:4826-32%, even with some very simple
34:50mechanisms. That is, it's still twice as
34:53high as a bank deposit, as a rule.
34:57If we also do things like covering
34:59slightly with an index to protect
35:01against a possible dip, or rebalancing
35:03between the long-term OFZs.
35:07And as for floaters, I'll repeat, since
35:09people sometimes write in the chat or on
35:11YouTube, "When do you plan to exit?"
35:14Well, I don't plan to exit the long-term
35:16ones at all yet, given such a high rate
35:19, but theoretically, if it happens that
35:21, I don't know, the rate is lowered to
35:2413%, the OFZs will be revalued, well, I
35:27don't know, the 38th issue might become
35:29, say, 640-680 rubles. Meaning its
35:31coupon would drop, say, to 11.8%, just
35:34as an example. And the floater will be
35:37giving 13%, maybe 12.8%. Well yes, at
35:39that moment I will reallocate.
35:42But for now, I understand that for the
35:44next three, four, five, six months, I am
35:47just standing pat, absolutely.
35:50It's calm right now. In the summer, when
35:52all those moves were happening, we had
35:54to pull up the average. Well, we
35:56adjusted the algorithms, yes. Well,
35:58there were moments there. The coupon is
36:00high now, but I look at any bank deposit
36:02. Well yeah, maybe you can find
36:04something somewhere.
36:06But it will be the same coupon as on the
36:0838th issue.
36:09But to find 15.4%in a normal bank for
36:12the 54th issue is impossible, for real
36:14money, for everything, it's impossible.
36:17So that it’s not just those first-time
36:19sign-up bonuses, or this and that, or
36:21cashbacks, or whatever backs. Well, I
36:23sometimes watch reviews by some
36:25fin-influencers, and they talk about
36:27these huge interest rates.
36:29Look, I have banking apps too, I have a
36:31bunch of banks as well, and I see all
36:34the offers that are out there.
36:37There are no real miracles there. Either
36:39that or it’s a matter of the term—they
36:42might give you a higher rate for a short
36:44term, but then for a longer term, the
36:45rate drops.
36:47It’s just simple math: we take a small
36:49piece of paper, write down all the pros
36:51and cons, and that’s it. If you want,
36:53I’m saying we can figure it out together
36:55. My friends, first of all, why don’t
36:57you write down your questions?
37:00The arguments for and against, let's say
37:02, floaters, long-term OFZs, or bank
37:04deposits—they all have their own nuances
37:07. I’ve covered bank deposits many times
37:09already. If it’s under a million rubles
37:10, right, there’s no personal income tax
37:12. Yeah, that’s probably a bit of a plus
37:13, sure. That’s probably a plus. If you
37:15go beyond that, though they want to
37:17count it all cumulatively anyway, so
37:19frankly, I think that plus will soon
37:21disappear. I think funds used to be
37:23tax-free too, but maybe only long-term
37:26ISAs—those investment accounts, yes, the
37:28long-term ones. Well, maybe only there,
37:31yes. And nothing stops you from holding
37:34those same OFZs inside them if you want
37:36to trade, park funds, or rebalance. You
37:38can, uh, you can place your money there
37:40too, and then you won't even hit the
37:42income tax. If you have a long-term
37:44holding, like some 26238, but it has the
37:47lowest principal, there will be a
37:49revaluation, and you won't pay income
37:51tax there either. You see, there are a
37:53lot of questions, but in essence, they
37:56all break down into very simple actions
37:58. Do one, do two, do three. And I repeat
38:01, if there are 1,200 or soon 1,300
38:03people, well, the majority of them have
38:05figured all this out, and it makes no
38:08difference at all. From ten-year-old
38:10kids—yes, like Anton who spoke on stage
38:12with me, a 10-year-old kid trading OFZs
38:15. To 70-year-old pensioners, they even
38:17figure out the robots because there is
38:19tech support and a team. Well, yes,
38:21you’ll probably have to spend some time
38:22just to get into it a little bit. I
38:24understand, if a person is conservative
38:26and has always kept money in a savings
38:28account, well, their mindset probably
38:29needs to change just a little bit. But I
38:31see that everyone eventually figures it
38:33out. Yes, in the end, everyone
38:35understands. And besides, that’s what I
38:37like about OFZ government bonds; even
38:38when we ask the team, like with the
38:40recent hysteria over metals, I think,
38:41well, of course it will bounce back. So
38:43many people closed their positions out
38:45of fear, just pure panic, you think,
38:46damn it. With OFZs, and many people
38:48wrote this, I would just hold OFZs and
38:50not worry about a thing. The fact is
38:52that OFZs are systematic, stable, calm,
38:55and they work. I mean, no matter what
38:58happens, whatever short-term
38:59fluctuations occur, whatever is going on
39:01inside, even if you do absolutely
39:03nothing, you will still receive your
39:05coupon. Amortization or repayment will
39:08happen at 100%regardless. It is
39:10systematic, stable, and calm here. We
39:12just happen to know how to work with
39:13this as well, you see? How to even
39:15navigate these, let’s say, volatilities
39:17, sideways trends, dips, and everything
39:19else, and actually profit from them too
39:20. Alright, my friends, for those
39:22interested, for those who find this
39:24useful.
39:25By the way, write in the comments below
39:27what topics you would like me to focus
39:29on more or break down, because I have
39:31already repeated and analyzed certain
39:33subjects a huge number of times.
39:37But I understand that new participants
39:39come along, or, well, what you might
39:41call YouTube viewers, right?
39:44Yes, those who come to YouTube, maybe
39:46they saw it for the first time and won't
39:48be watching the previous videos. But
39:50just ask your questions.
39:52Ask whatever questions you are
39:54interested in. I’ll dedicate time to
39:56them, no problem. I’ll break them down
39:58once again, and I think that even those
39:59who have been here a long time and
40:01understand everything will still find it
40:02useful. So, for those who find this
40:04useful and interesting again, first of
40:07all, subscribe, and if you have the
40:09desire, please leave a like. Be sure to
40:12write your comments, your suggestions,
40:14anything at all. And if you want to go
40:16further, head over to the Telegram
40:18channel, head over to Max. Max is also
40:20growing actively. There are open groups
40:23where people communicate actively, ask
40:25each other any questions, and there’s
40:27always a team there, tech support, who
40:29explain everything.
40:31And then there are closed groups, which
40:33operate on their own schedule. And once
40:35again, I’m thinking that maybe in a week
40:37or two, I’ll hold another big open event
40:39, what we call a marathon, but in
40:41essence, it will just be a demonstration
40:44of what’s happening in real time, how
40:46those robots work, and how, relatively
40:48speaking, the trading takes place. It's
40:50not just one day, or even one hour,
40:52where you just hop on for an hour and
40:54show something. No, a whole week. And
40:57you catch all the phases, like what
40:59happened—we had placements and
41:01deliveries, and we weren't just trading
41:03them, but also seeing how the RGBI index
41:06works with OFZ bond repositioning.
41:09We went through that whole tough phase
41:10with metals as well.
41:13So, subscribe, so that if this event
41:15happens—and it most likely will, I’m
41:18just figuring out the timing—you can
41:20participate and see it with your own
41:22eyes. Alright, my friends, good luck,
41:25and see you at our next exciting
41:27meetings.

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