1157: 15 Transactions for Week 10 — Transcript

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30. 1:11>> JJ Zachar.
31. 1:17>> What's up everyone? It's JJ Zachary and
32. 1:19this is episode 1157 of the Late Round
33. 1:22Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for
34. 1:24tuning in. Before I get to the 15
35. 1:26transactions this week, I want to let
36. 1:28you guys know and remind you about the
37. 1:29new data dump show on the Late Round
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45. 1:45to the channel youtube.comlatround
46. 1:48fff
47. 1:51by Malik Neighbors. It feels like Malik
48. 1:54Neighbors season is kind of flying under
49. 1:56the radar, which is kind of weird, but
50. 1:58he's been awesome. He's the wide
51. 1:59receiver 11 in PPR points per game, and
52. 2:02that includes a brief ramp up period.
53. 2:03He's been the wide receiver seven since
54. 2:06week two. He's also the wide receiver
55. 2:08six and expected PPR points per game
56. 2:10over that stretch. And among qualified
57. 2:13wide receivers, only Puka, CD Lamb, and
58. 2:16Jackson Smith and Jigba have averaged
59. 2:17more raw targets per game. He just
60. 2:20hasn't found the end zone in three
61. 2:21weeks. And he's coming off a pretty
62. 2:23mediocre five catch 43 yard performance
63. 2:26in week nine. Maybe his managers are
64. 2:28more willing to trade him this week, at
65. 2:30least compared to how they felt a few
66. 2:32weeks ago. And I'd be all about getting
67. 2:34him. In week 16 and 17, the Giants get
68. 2:37the Lions and the Cowboys. Both of those
69. 2:40teams rank comfortably as top 10
70. 2:41matchups for wide receivers by adjusted
71. 2:43points allowed. There's still a lot to
72. 2:45like about Malik Neighbors moving
73. 2:47forward.
74. 2:50Add Caleb Douglas. So, this is not the
75. 2:53first time that Caleb Douglas has made
76. 2:54this list, but week nine only reinforced
77. 2:57this idea that he should be on a lot of
78. 2:59rosters. Douglas finished Miami's game
79. 3:01against Detroit on Sunday with a 38%
80. 3:03target share. He also hit a season high
81. 3:0613.1 expected PPR points in that game.
82. 3:10Now look, his overall production, it
83. 3:12hasn't been amazing this season. That
84. 3:1438% target share looks a lot better than
85. 3:16his actual output. But keep in mind, the
86. 3:20Dolphins wide out to get the Packers,
87. 3:21Chargers, and Bills in the fantasy
88. 3:23playoffs. Those are all top 10 matchups
89. 3:25for wide receivers by adjusted points
90. 3:27allowed premon.
91. 3:29We have to remember that Caleb Douglas
92. 3:30is a rookie and he was banged up earlier
93. 3:33this year. If he can continue to
94. 3:35establish himself in this offense, there
95. 3:37may be more predictability to his week-
96. 3:39toeek output than what we're seeing
97. 3:40right now. So, by the time the fantasy
98. 3:43playoffs roll around, he could be a lot
99. 3:44more useful than you think.
100. 3:48Add Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. The
101. 3:51Texans offense right now is ninth in the
102. 3:53NFL and pass rate over expected. CJ
103. 3:56Strad is playing the best football of
104. 3:58his career since his rookie season. But
105. 4:00yeah, they do have this obnoxious
106. 4:01carousel at wide receiver, but as we saw
107. 4:04in week nine, there's still some
108. 4:05usability there. Now, look, Tank Dell
109. 4:08was featured on last week's 15
110. 4:09transaction show. I thought he was an
111. 4:11interesting ad given the Jaylen Null
112. 4:13injury. Well, we saw Dell's route share
113. 4:15go from 17% the last time we saw Houston
114. 4:18to 55% in week 9. That resulted in nine
115. 4:22targets, a 24% target share, and 20 and
116. 4:25a half PPR points. He had 16.8 expected
117. 4:28PPR points. It wasn't just a total
118. 4:30fluke, but Xavier Hutchinson took the
119. 4:33role that I thought he might take, which
120. 4:34is basically the Jaylen Null role.
121. 4:37Hutchinson was their main slot guy. And
122. 4:39without Null to compete with, Hutchinson
123. 4:41actually led the Texans and routes run
124. 4:43against the Chargers. He just isn't as
125. 4:46good of a football player as Tangella
126. 4:47is. So, his target share was only 14%
127. 4:51with 9.9 expected PPR points. But either
128. 4:54way, I think both these wide receivers
129. 4:56should be rostered in more leagues. The
130. 4:59Texans have a pretty mediocre schedule
131. 5:00over the next month, but their final
132. 5:02four games, they get the Commanders,
133. 5:04Jags, Eagles, and Packers. Those are
134. 5:06four favorable matchups for wide
135. 5:08receivers by adjusted points allowed.
136. 5:10I'd still prefer Tank Dell just given
137. 5:12the upside, and we saw that upside in
138. 5:15week nine. But Xavier Hutcherson is fine
139. 5:17to add, too.
140. 5:20Cell Javvante Williams. Anytime I talk
141. 5:23about a bigname player as a Cell, it
142. 5:26gets more attention. There aren't that
143. 5:28many reliable assets in fantasy
144. 5:29football. Trading one of those players
145. 5:31away, that's risky. But that's why a
146. 5:34transaction like this one to sell
147. 5:35Javvante Williams, it's only applicable
148. 5:38if you're getting something substantial
149. 5:40in return. To be honest with you guys,
150. 5:42this transaction is just to say that I
151. 5:44would expect Javvante Williams to see a
152. 5:46dip in production from now through the
153. 5:48end of the year. He's not going to
154. 5:49become irrelevant. He's not someone
155. 5:51that's going to be on your bench. I just
156. 5:53think from now through the end of the
157. 5:54season, he's not going to be quite as
158. 5:56good as how he's performed this year. On
159. 5:58the season, he has the seventh most PP
160. 6:00points per game among running backs.
161. 6:02He's fourth in snap share and he's 18th
162. 6:04in route share. The peripherals are
163. 6:06definitely there. I think he's been fine
164. 6:08as a runner, but obviously touchdowns
165. 6:10are really boosting his numbers. He's
166. 6:12the RB7 this year, but he's the RB13
167. 6:15when you remove touchdowns from the
168. 6:16equation. And I get it, touchdowns are
169. 6:18part of the game. Like the allure with
170. 6:20Javvante Williams is that he has a
171. 6:22really good environment. I'm just a
172. 6:24little bit concerned about how
173. 6:25frequently those opportunities could
174. 6:26come his way given the opponents that
175. 6:28he's about to face. Now look, over the
176. 6:31next two games for Dallas, they have
177. 6:32decent enough matchups against the 49ers
178. 6:34and the Titans. But then after that,
179. 6:36it's the Eagles, the Seahawks, a
180. 6:39by-week, the Rams, the Jags, and the
181. 6:41Giants.
182. 6:43After Tennessee, none of those opponents
183. 6:45rank as top half matchups for running
184. 6:46backs by adjusted points allowed.
185. 6:49He also still has his buy and he gets
186. 6:51the Rams and the Jags in the first two
187. 6:53weeks of the fantasy playoffs. That's
188. 6:54kind of brutal. Now, keep this in mind,
189. 6:57too. Dallas has scored 57% of their
190. 7:00offensive touchdowns this year through
191. 7:01the air. If they finished with that kind
192. 7:04of rate, that would be the lowest rate
193. 7:06of the Dak Prescott era when looking at
194. 7:08seasons where Prescott was healthy. To
195. 7:10put that another way, I would expect
196. 7:12Dallas to score more touchdowns through
197. 7:14the air than what they've done
198. 7:15throughout this season. Williams
199. 7:17comfortably leads the league in goal
200. 7:19line rushes. Those opportunities are not
201. 7:21guaranteed every single week. Again,
202. 7:24just to reiterate, this is not a sell-it
203. 7:26all cost transaction, especially with
204. 7:28this Tyler Goodson injury. It's just a
205. 7:30recognition that on paper, it wouldn't
206. 7:33surprise me if Williams production it
207. 7:35just dips a little bit down the stretch.
208. 7:37And if you can get a substantial return
209. 7:39right now or even after the next couple
210. 7:41of weeks, I'd at least consider making
211. 7:43that move.
212. 7:46Add or buy Antonio Williams?
213. 7:49It's kind of surprising to me that
214. 7:51Antonio Williams is still available in
215. 7:52nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues. I don't
216. 7:55think he's just an ad candidate. I kind
217. 7:56of think he's a buy candidate, too.
218. 7:59Williams leads the Commanders in route
219. 8:01share ever since Terry McLuren's season
220. 8:02ending injury. He's seen target shares
221. 8:04of 26% and 18% over his last two games.
222. 8:08Now, that's resulted in just 10.4 and
223. 8:115.5 PPR points. But for what it's worth,
224. 8:14he's also underperformed his PPR point
225. 8:16expectation in both contests. With the
226. 8:19Rams now out of the way, the Commanders
227. 8:21have just one glaringly tough matchup
228. 8:23left on their schedule. That comes in
229. 8:25week 16. They face the Vikings.
230. 8:27Otherwise, every remaining opponent
231. 8:29ranks as a top 20 matchup for wide
232. 8:31receivers by adjusted points allowed.
233. 8:33Given Williams rookie season status, his
234. 8:36new role, there could be some growing
235. 8:37pains. That's not surprising. But to me,
236. 8:40he's looked really good. If he can keep
237. 8:43establishing himself in this offense,
238. 8:44the production should eventually come.
239. 8:48Add Aric Esté. So, it's a little bit
240. 8:51surprising, but the Saints released
241. 8:53Kendry Miller last week. And with Travis
242. 8:55Achan still not ready to return from
243. 8:57injury, the Saints mostly rolled out an
244. 8:59Aric Estim Alvin Chimera backfield in
245. 9:01week nine. And Esme actually didn't look
246. 9:04that bad. He scored 14.7 PPR points. He
247. 9:07handled 47% of the team's rushes. He
248. 9:10carried the ball 15 times for 72 yards
249. 9:12and a touchdown. Dating back to college,
250. 9:15estimate was never much of a pass
251. 9:16catcher and we saw that in week nine.
252. 9:19Despite his playing time, he still only
253. 9:21saw one target. But if Achan can't
254. 9:23return this week, the Saints have an
255. 9:25attractive matchup against Carolina and
256. 9:27that would make estimate a decent flex
257. 9:29option
258. 9:32by Caleb Williams. So, there's no doubt
259. 9:35that Caleb Williams has been so much fun
260. 9:37to watch this year, but the fantasy
261. 9:39production hasn't really matched that.
262. 9:41He scored 20 fantasy points just twice
263. 9:43this year. He's coming off of
264. 9:45back-to-back performances with fewer
265. 9:47than 15 standard fantasy points. The
266. 9:49thing is, Williams has now faced
267. 9:51Carolina, Minnesota, Atlanta, New
268. 9:54England, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. Of that
269. 9:56group, the only favorable matchup by
270. 9:58adjusted points allowed was Carolina. In
271. 10:00that game, he scored over 37 fantasy
272. 10:03points. The Bears also continue to be
273. 10:06huge regression candidates with how they
274. 10:07score their touchdowns. Only 37% of
275. 10:10their touchdowns this year have come
276. 10:12through the air. That's the third lowest
277. 10:14rate in the league. Dating back to 2016,
278. 10:17only one team has finished the season
279. 10:18with a passing touchdown rate that low.
280. 10:21Moving forward, touchdown regression
281. 10:23could help Williams, but the Bears also
282. 10:25have a pretty decent schedule coming out
283. 10:27of their buy. After week 10, they get
284. 10:29the Saints, Lions, Jags, Dolphins,
285. 10:31Bills, Packers, and Lions. Once again,
286. 10:34that gives Chicago the eighth best rest
287. 10:36of season schedule for quarterbacks
288. 10:38according to our adjusted points allowed
289. 10:39numbers. It's a way better schedule than
290. 10:42what Caleb Williams has already faced.
291. 10:44So, I think better days are ahead for
292. 10:46him as a fantasy asset. And with the
293. 10:48Bears on buy, you might be able to buy
294. 10:50even lower this week.
295. 10:54Add Pat Bryant. So, the Broncos have
296. 10:56their buy this week. The hope is that
297. 10:58Jaylen Wadd, who suffered a concussion
298. 11:00in week nine, that he can play in week
299. 11:0211 against the Raiders. But I think
300. 11:04regardless of that, Pat Bryant should at
301. 11:06least be on your radar. Not only has he
302. 11:09flashed this year, he was solid in week
303. 11:11one and then in week nine, he scored
304. 11:1315.6 PPR points. Remember, he was
305. 11:16injured throughout the season. But
306. 11:18there's contingent upside here, too. If
307. 11:21Waddle isn't able to play or if
308. 11:23Courtland Sutton goes down, Pat Bryant
309. 11:25would really benefit. And the Broncos
310. 11:28have a great schedule to close out the
311. 11:29season. You really shouldn't break the
312. 11:31bank for Pat Bryant. You shouldn't have
313. 11:33to, though. Just throw a dollar his way
314. 11:36and stash him. Of course, only if you
315. 11:38have roster space.
316. 11:41Add Jordan Watkins.
317. 11:44So, San Francisco's wide receiver room
318. 11:45is banged up. and Jordan Watkins in week
319. 11:48nine, he was the wide out who emerged.
320. 11:50He led the team with an 87% route share
321. 11:53against the Raiders. He had a 17% target
322. 11:55share and he scored 18.6 PPR points.
323. 11:58He's also seen expected PPR point totals
324. 12:00of 12.3 and 9.2 over his last two games.
325. 12:04And the San Francisco offense, those
326. 12:06numbers are usable. And up next for the
327. 12:0949ers, they get the Cowboys. So, it's a
328. 12:12great matchup for their pass catchers.
329. 12:14and Debo Samuel and Mike Evans, they've
330. 12:16been banged up. If they can't go, Jordan
331. 12:19Watkins, not a bad streaming play at
332. 12:21wide receiver.
333. 12:24Add Ryan Fenoy. Ryan Fenoy had a real
334. 12:28opportunity to come through in a big way
335. 12:30in week nine. George Pickkins was out.
336. 12:32Jake Ferguson was banged up. And Fenoy
337. 12:34was the clear number two option in this
338. 12:36Dallas Cowboys offense in the passing
339. 12:38attack. Unfortunately, he had just a 9%
340. 12:41target share. He scored 7.3 PPR points,
341. 12:44but he was on the field. He was running
342. 12:46routes. He had a 97% route share that
343. 12:48was a season high. Fenoy has had his
344. 12:51moments this year. He's been a usable
345. 12:53fantasy asset at times, but his expected
346. 12:55PPR point total has reached double digit
347. 12:58points just twice. In other words,
348. 13:00you're probably only starting him if CD
349. 13:02Lamb or George Pickkins were to be out.
350. 13:04But that's multiple outs for Ryan Fenoy.
351. 13:06And George Pickkins, he could miss week
352. 13:0810, too. We don't know right now. And if
353. 13:11that were to happen, if Pickkins were to
354. 13:12be out, you at least know that Feno is
355. 13:15going to run a lot of routes. And when
356. 13:16players are running routes, there's a
357. 13:17higher chance that they see volume and
358. 13:19score fantasy points.
359. 13:23Add Brevin Span Ford. So sticking with
360. 13:26the Cowboys, Jake Ferguson, he's now set
361. 13:29to miss multiple weeks with a knee
362. 13:30injury. He's already been losing some
363. 13:32work this year to Brevin Span Ford, but
364. 13:35now Span Ford is the starting tight end
365. 13:37for the Cowboys. After Ferguson left
366. 13:39week nine's game with that knee injury,
367. 13:41Span Ford ended up running a route on
368. 13:4381% of Dallas's dropbacks. Now, he only
369. 13:46saw 9% target share during that time,
370. 13:48but that type of usage will definitely
371. 13:51lead to more opportunities moving
372. 13:52forward. The Cowboys could face a pass
373. 13:54heavy script in a plus matchup against
374. 13:56the 49ers this week. Then in week 11,
375. 13:59they get the Titans, and the Titans are
376. 14:01pretty average at defending tight ends.
377. 14:03There's definitely some potential here.
378. 14:07Add Corey Ker. So Raandre Stevenson has
379. 14:10been the clear lead back in this
380. 14:11Patriots backfield this year, but he
381. 14:13suffered a knee injury late in their
382. 14:15game against the Packers on Sunday. And
383. 14:17now it sounds like you can miss a few
384. 14:18weeks. But if I'm adding someone from
385. 14:21that backfield is probably Cory Ker. Lan
386. 14:23Larrison is there too, but he's more of
387. 14:25a passing down specialist. He only has
388. 14:27three rushes this year. Larrison's sort
389. 14:30of the secondary ad from the team,
390. 14:31assuming Trayvon Henderson continues to
391. 14:33be sidelined. Now, it would be easy to
392. 14:36spend up on Ker if the Patriots were
393. 14:38facing teams where they would see
394. 14:39positive game scripts, likely positive
395. 14:42game scripts, but New England gets the
396. 14:44Lions next. And they still have the
397. 14:46Bills, Vikings, Chiefs, and Broncos on
398. 14:48their schedule, too. Those matchups will
399. 14:50be a lot easier to stomach for a player
400. 14:52like Raandre Stevenson because he sees
401. 14:55those easy dump offs in that offense.
402. 14:58But with Ker, the receiving work is less
403. 15:00likely to be there. Even still, he
404. 15:03should see plenty of volume if
405. 15:04Stephvenson is out, so he's worth
406. 15:06adding.
407. 15:09By Denzel Boston. I've talked about this
408. 15:12on the late round podcast this season,
409. 15:13but Denzel Boston, he's the archetype of
410. 15:15wide receiver who's bound to give you
411. 15:17boom bust performances. Among 73 wide
412. 15:20receivers with 150 or more routes this
413. 15:22year, Boston ranks 11th in air yards per
414. 15:25target. But he's not just running down
415. 15:27the field routes. According to NextGen
416. 15:30stats data, he's more middle of the road
417. 15:32when it comes to the percentage of his
418. 15:33routes that are typically considered
419. 15:34deeper routes. The problem is that
420. 15:37they've gotten iffy quarterback play.
421. 15:40Boston ranks in the 17th percentile on
422. 15:42catchable target rate according to
423. 15:43Fantasy Life data. Maybe that doesn't
424. 15:45turn around. But I can tell you one
425. 15:48thing, he's definitely underperforming
426. 15:50of late. Boston scored 2.5, 5.7, 9.7,
427. 15:55and 15.8 8 PPR points over his last
428. 15:58four. Now, that performance against the
429. 16:00Saints of 15.8 PPR points, not bad. Not
430. 16:03bad at all. But Boston managers know
431. 16:06that Deshun Watson is likely returning
432. 16:08for Cleveland. They might be wanting to
433. 16:10sell after finally having a big game.
434. 16:13I'd be willing to buy into the variance
435. 16:14in this case. During this 4ame stretch,
436. 16:18Boston has averaged 15.7 expected PPR
437. 16:21points per game. So based on his usage,
438. 16:24he should have scored closer to 15.7 PPR
439. 16:26points per game. His actual PPR points
440. 16:28per game though is 8.4.
441. 16:31He's been the biggest underachiever in
442. 16:33the entire league over that time frame
443. 16:36among all positions. The Browns don't
444. 16:38have a really scary schedule moving
445. 16:40forward. It's more average. They get the
446. 16:42Texans this week before their buy. Then
447. 16:44they get the Raiders, Bengals, Falcons,
448. 16:46Giants, Ravens, and Colts. Like I said,
449. 16:48it's a pretty average schedule. So, even
450. 16:50after a pretty good outing against New
451. 16:52Orleans, I think Boston managers, they
452. 16:54might be ready to get off this ride,
453. 16:56this roller coaster of Denzel Boston. If
454. 16:59you're willing to embrace some of that
455. 17:00week- toeek variance, which I think you
456. 17:02should overall, I think he's a
457. 17:04worthwhile trade target.
458. 17:07Add Gino Smith. Quarterback streaming is
459. 17:11not very easy this week. It's been
460. 17:12pretty tough all season long, but I
461. 17:14don't mind Gino Smith spot in week 10
462. 17:16against the Bills. They're going to be
463. 17:18at home. They're pretty big underdogs,
464. 17:20but that game total is over 50 points.
465. 17:23Pre Monday Night Football, the Bills
466. 17:25have been the 10th best matchup for
467. 17:26quarterbacks this year, according to our
468. 17:28adjusted points allowed numbers. Gino
469. 17:30Smith has been pretty average in EPA per
470. 17:32dropback this year, and he's averaged
471. 17:34roughly four more fantasy points per
472. 17:36game at home versus on the road in 2026.
473. 17:39If Garrett Wilson is back and healthy, I
474. 17:41think Gino Smith can be fine as a
475. 17:43quarterback streamer.
476. 17:46Add the Baltimore Ravens defense. So,
477. 17:49after facing the Jags in week nine, a
478. 17:51tough matchup, the Ravens defense is
479. 17:53pretty widely available. They're out
480. 17:54there in about 65% of Yahoo Leagues.
481. 17:57They get the Chargers in Baltimore this
482. 17:59week. The Ravens are 5 1/2 point
483. 18:02favorites without Lamar Jackson. That's
484. 18:05how bad the Chargers have been. And the
485. 18:07game total is 38 and a half points.
486. 18:10We've now seen six of eight defenses
487. 18:12facing the Chargers score double-digit
488. 18:14fantasy points this season. That's no
489. 18:16surprise because LA has one of the five
490. 18:18worst offenses by EPA per play through
491. 18:20the first nine weeks of the season that
492. 18:22we've seen over the last decade. So
493. 18:24yeah, I think that you can stream the
494. 18:25Ravens this week. That's it for today's
495. 18:28show though. Thanks to all of you for
496. 18:29listening. If you yet subscribed to the
497. 18:31Late Round fantasy football podcast,
498. 18:32make sure you are by searching for it
499. 18:34pretty much anywhere podcast can be
500. 18:35found. And don't forget to follow me on
501. 18:37Twitter and on Blue Sky, late round QB.
502. 18:40Thanks for listening everyone. I'll
503. 18:42catch you tomorrow with the weekly 10
504. 18:43trends episode.
505. 18:55Someone once said, "Everybody's got a
506. 18:57plan till they get punched in the
507. 18:58mouth."
508. 18:59>> I did. Mike Tyson.
509. 19:01>> Oh, well, Mike Tyson and Boost are here
510. 19:03to tell you that your mobile plan is
511. 19:05punching you in the mouth with prices
512. 19:07that can knock you out.
513. 19:08>> That's a low blow. [music]
514. 19:10>> Totally. But you can do something about
515. 19:12it.
516. 19:12>> You have to punch back. No, Mike.
517. 19:15[music] You got to switch to Boost with
518. 19:17a plan that's $25 a month forever.
519. 19:19>> Oh, that's a great plan. Maybe you can
520. 19:21do both. Boost Mobile. What's your plan?
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