11 “Boring” Trading Strategies the top 1% of Retail Traders Use — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00I'm Tom Sosnoff. I've made over a
- 0:01million trades in my life. Last month, I
- 0:04looked back at everything I've traded
- 0:05and something clicked. Nearly every
- 0:07single trade I made was boring. I've
- 0:09been trading for 44 years. I've watched
- 0:13every genius strategy come and go.
- 0:14What's left are these 11 boring
- 0:16strategies that actually work. In this
- 0:18video, I'm going to walk you through
- 0:20what they are and how to use them. And
- 0:22at the end, I'll reveal the two that
- 0:24probably account for more than 70% of my
- 0:26profits. Number one, to get long, short
- 0:29puts. This is the simplest, highest
- 0:32probability, and most capital-efficient
- 0:33strategy. I always sell out of the money
- 0:35puts in the 35 to 50 DTE range at the
- 0:38expected move, targeting deltas between
- 0:4116 and 22 with a buying power reduction
- 0:43of 20% of the strike price and a
- 0:45probability of profit, which we call
- 0:47POP, over 80%. This is one of the most
- 0:49straightforward strategies in trading.
- 0:51It's simple, clean, and easy to adjust.
- 0:54Your profit target is about 50% of the
- 0:56premium collected. Also, I prefer
- 0:58selling puts on stocks that have been
- 1:00beaten down and where the IVR is 30% or
- 1:04more. There's an old saying in this
- 1:05business, puts are schmaltz. This is my
- 1:08favorite go-to strategy and probably my
- 1:10primary default approach to trading. A
- 1:13high POP approach every trader can
- 1:15execute. Number two, to get long, how
- 1:17about a jade lizard? Short puts and
- 1:20short call spreads. The jade lizard is a
- 1:22short put combined with a short call
- 1:24spread kicker. This is a great strategy
- 1:27for bulls who want just a little more
- 1:29downside protection. The keys to a jade
- 1:31lizard are to position the trade so
- 1:34there's no upside risk. To do that,
- 1:36[music] you need to sell a put and a
- 1:37short call spread where the combined
- 1:39premium collected exceeds the width of
- 1:41the strikes on the short call spread.
- 1:43The optimal duration for a jade lizard
- 1:45is around 40 DTE. That's 40 days to
- 1:47expiration. Selling the out of the money
- 1:49put and the call spread at just inside
- 1:52the expected move usually yields the
- 1:54necessary premium. The jade lizard is a
- 1:56capital-efficient, very high pop trade
- 1:59that can be done with a single click on
- 2:01[music] virtually any platform. Your
- 2:02profit target is approximately 50% of
- 2:05the total premium collected. This is a
- 2:08heavily used strategy, especially with
- 2:10oversold stocks and futures options.
- 2:12I've used this strategy recently in
- 2:14Nike, in Uber, in Netflix, and in crude
- 2:17oil. I would say that Jay's Lizard, next
- 2:20to short puts, is my go-to long
- 2:22strategy. Number three, to get long,
- 2:25covered calls. This is the classic basis
- 2:28reduction high pop trade that every
- 2:30trader has used in their journey.
- 2:32Ideally, you would execute a covered
- 2:35call on a stock that has a low basis,
- 2:37that means low price, and high implied
- 2:39volatility. This is not the most capital
- 2:41efficient strategy, but it does improve
- 2:43your pop from approximately 54% to
- 2:47around 64%, which is significant. The
- 2:50perfect covered call duration is 40 to
- 2:5260 days to expiration, which gives the
- 2:54buyer time to be right. We always
- 2:56execute covered calls as a single trade,
- 2:59the stock and options together, and the
- 3:01short strike will be somewhere between
- 3:03the 25 and 30 delta option. You should
- 3:06consider taking profits if the short
- 3:08strike is breached. Not everybody tells
- 3:10you that. We will always close a covered
- 3:13call strategy as a single trade, never
- 3:15legging out. Also, if you want to
- 3:18maintain some long deltas after you
- 3:20close the trade, you can always replace
- 3:22a covered call with an out-of-the-money
- 3:24short put. Now, I like this strategy for
- 3:26cheaper stocks that I believe are
- 3:28oversold and stocks that have crappy or
- 3:32non-existent option markets, [music]
- 3:33such as stocks like maybe like Lucid
- 3:36LCID or SOXS, different ETFs like that.
- 3:40I would say that I use covered calls
- 3:42less often than short puts and less
- 3:44often than Jay Lizards, but it's kind of
- 3:46like a once-a-week cheap stock strategy
- 3:50for me, and it's something that I think
- 3:52every trader should experience because
- 3:54the combination of stocks and options in
- 3:56a single trade is important to
- 3:57understand how that works. Number four,
- 3:59to get long, short put spreads. For
- 4:02those looking for a defined risk trade,
- 4:04an out-of-the-money short put spread is
- 4:05a high pop, low risk, low reward
- 4:08strategy. Another reason for using a
- 4:11short put vertical is capital
- 4:12efficiency. Sometimes, the buy power
- 4:15reduction or BPR on expensive stocks
- 4:17simply requires too much portfolio
- 4:19capital on a percentage basis. The
- 4:21target credit for a short vertical
- 4:23spread is somewhere between 30 and 35%
- 4:27of the width of the strikes. The
- 4:28probability of profit is the inverse of
- 4:30the credit received from the width of
- 4:32the strikes. Simple math. The profit
- 4:34target is still 50% of the credit
- 4:36received, but it may take a little
- 4:38longer to reach your number when
- 4:39compared to a naked option. The short
- 4:40put spread is a great go-to strategy and
- 4:44also a great introduction to option
- 4:47trading. Now, here's my little side note
- 4:49on short put spreads. Because short put
- 4:52spreads generally trade cheap, I like
- 4:55short call spreads to get short better
- 4:57than I like short put spreads to get
- 4:58long. I will occasionally use short put
- 5:00spreads, especially if I think a stock
- 5:03is just requires too much capital to
- 5:05use. Normally, I prefer naked short puts
- 5:08to short put spreads. Still, I do use
- 5:11short put spreads. I like to use them in
- 5:13combination sometimes with other
- 5:15strategies, and I would say it's a once
- 5:17or twice a week strategy for me. Number
- 5:18five, to get long. We're switching to
- 5:20the long side now. Put ratio spreads. A
- 5:23put ratio spread is another high pop
- 5:25strategy that works best with oversold
- 5:28stocks that have high implied
- 5:29volatility. It's a version of a naked
- 5:30short put, but with some additional
- 5:32downside protection. You can use any
- 5:34ratio you like, but most traders use a
- 5:36straightforward 1x2 approach. The
- 5:38objective of a put ratio spread is to
- 5:41set a trade up outside of the expected
- 5:43move. That's where your long strike is
- 5:45set, and then sell twice as many further
- 5:47out of the money puts to generate a net
- 5:49credit. It's a long delta short premium
- 5:52trade that does require some undefined
- 5:55risk. The profit target for a put ratio
- 5:57spread is at least the net credit
- 5:59received. Any strategy where you
- 6:00potentially risk a lot to make a little
- 6:03should deliver an incredibly high win
- 6:05rate. The one thing that I always take
- 6:07from my experience trading for, you
- 6:09know, over four decades, is that put
- 6:12ratio spreads as a market maker and a
- 6:14floor trader was one of the first things
- 6:16that every trader learns how to do. Sell
- 6:17some puts and then buy a few bigger puts
- 6:19against it. I think as a retail
- 6:21investor, we have popularized the short
- 6:25put ratio spread or the put ratio spread
- 6:27simply because it has such a high pop. I
- 6:29would say this is a strategy I use um
- 6:31maybe not every day, but at least three
- 6:34to four times a week. Number six, also
- 6:36to get short. Short call spreads. A
- 6:39short call vertical is possibly the most
- 6:42capital efficient and best way to get
- 6:45short a stock with limited risk. Call
- 6:47spreads generally trade expensive
- 6:49because of the inherent call skew priced
- 6:51into options. The velocity of risk to
- 6:53the upside is what we call call skew. I
- 6:55prefer to sell call spreads just inside
- 6:57the expected move. Collect about 1/3 the
- 6:59width of the strikes. Your pop or
- 7:01probability of profit will be the
- 7:02inverse of the credit received minus the
- 7:04width of the strikes. A short call
- 7:05spread should have between a 60 to 70%
- 7:09pop, meaning you're collecting between
- 7:1130 to 40% of the width of the strikes.
- 7:13And they are great use of capital to
- 7:14reduce some portfolio long deltas. The
- 7:17optimal duration for a short call spread
- 7:20is between 30 and 50 DTE. And the profit
- 7:22[music] target should be around 50%. I
- 7:25feel that the short call spreads work
- 7:26best with stocks that you believe are
- 7:28overpriced or too expensive relative to
- 7:31the rest of the market. Again, I use
- 7:33call spreads in ETFs, indexes, and
- 7:36expensive stocks all the time. I would
- 7:38say I have more short call spreads on
- 7:40right now. It's probably my second
- 7:42largest portfolio position next to naked
- 7:45strangles, which we'll talk about a
- 7:46little bit later. But, naked short call
- 7:48spreads is the way that I get short
- 7:50deltas in the Qs and the Spys,
- 7:52>> [music]
- 7:52>> in a lot of stocks that have kind of
- 7:54what people believe is this just crazy,
- 7:57you know, one-dimensional upside or
- 7:58hyperbolic upside risk. And I feel like
- 8:01short call spreads, because of the skew,
- 8:03just trade very rich relative to put
- 8:04spreads. Number seven, also to get
- 8:06short, the BWB or broken wing butterfly
- 8:09is a two-part strategy built into a
- 8:11single order. It's a combination of a
- 8:13long butterfly and a short vertical
- 8:15spread. The broken wing butterfly has
- 8:17net short deltas, but offers added
- 8:20protection against an up move. Kind of a
- 8:22little weird. The perfect duration is
- 8:24about a month out in time, and you'll
- 8:26want to set up your long strike at the
- 8:28expected move and your short strike just
- 8:30outside of the expected move. The
- 8:31strategy is a long one short two long
- 8:34one, which we also call a skip strike
- 8:37butterfly. In order to increase your
- 8:38POP, you should always execute broken
- 8:41wing butterflies for a net credit. This
- 8:43is a strategy you could use for earnings
- 8:46or for any stock you believe has gotten
- 8:48ahead of itself based on price. The
- 8:50profit target for a broken wing
- 8:51butterfly is at least the net credit
- 8:53received. If the trade goes your way, it
- 8:56is also possible to buy back the
- 8:58embedded short call vertical for less
- 9:00than the credit received, and then you
- 9:01own the remaining original butterfly for
- 9:04free. When that happens, it's fun. I
- 9:06love broken wing butterflies for the
- 9:08upside, much more so than I like them
- 9:09for the downside. The reason I don't
- 9:10like the downside is because the
- 9:12downside trades too cheap, but the
- 9:13upside trades rich. So, I think broken
- 9:16wing butterflies as a way to get short
- 9:18deltas with upside protection is a
- 9:20strategy we use, especially for
- 9:22earnings, but also for runaway stocks. I
- 9:24would say I use this strategy a couple
- 9:26of times a week, one, two, or three
- 9:28times a week. Number eight, to get
- 9:30short, sell a skewed or unbalanced iron
- 9:33condor. The unbalanced iron condor is a
- 9:35short premium trade with a directional
- 9:38kicker.
- 9:39Because call spreads trade richer than
- 9:41put spreads, for a skewed Iron Condor,
- 9:43we like to sell a call spread that is
- 9:45wider than the put spread. Also gives
- 9:46you the short deltas that way. For
- 9:48example, an unbalanced Iron Condor may
- 9:50be a short $10 wide call spread and a
- 9:52short $5 wide put spread. It's still
- 9:55done as a single trade. This is a
- 9:57capital efficient high pop trade with
- 9:59defined risk, short premium, and some
- 10:02short deltas. The optimal short strike
- 10:04will be at the expected move of some 40
- 10:06days to expiration. You should look to
- 10:08collect around half the width of the
- 10:10strikes in total on the narrower side,
- 10:12and the profit target is 50% of the
- 10:16total credit collected. This is not a
- 10:17trade we will leg into or out of. Even
- 10:20with configurable strikes, it is a
- 10:22single click trade. And again, just to
- 10:24refresh something, you'd look to collect
- 10:2750% of the credit of the narrower
- 10:29strikes in this case, cuz you won't be
- 10:31collecting 50% of the wider strikes.
- 10:33This is a strategy that I use all the
- 10:35time when I want to get directionally
- 10:37short, but I want to have myself have a
- 10:40little bit of a downside kicker. It's
- 10:42like a Jade Lizard with a kicker. I love
- 10:44this trade for getting short, but giving
- 10:46myself a little bit of deltas from the
- 10:49short put spread to offset some of the
- 10:51upside risk. It's a trade again that we
- 10:53use maybe one to two times a week, but
- 10:56it's a trade that I especially like in
- 10:57runaway markets. Number nine, something
- 11:00different. To sell volatility and to
- 11:02sell premium. First, we like to sell an
- 11:04Iron Condor. A short Iron Condor is a
- 11:06defined risk version of a short
- 11:07strangle. An Iron Condor usually seeks a
- 11:10combined credit of between 30 and 40% of
- 11:13the width of strikes. It's a high pop
- 11:15trade, limited risk trade that requires
- 11:19a stock or index to remain range bound.
- 11:21You're essentially challenging the
- 11:22underlying stock to beat you rather than
- 11:25the other way around. It's a simple
- 11:27strategy executed with a single click.
- 11:29We generally target between 30 and 50%
- 11:32of the credit received, but it is not a
- 11:33strategy that is easy to adjust or
- 11:35modify. So, I find iron condors a great
- 11:38engagement strategy that requires super
- 11:41high IVR to be profitable over long
- 11:43stretches. Most iron condors are easy
- 11:45fills that execute just a penny or two
- 11:48around mid price, and you can use the
- 11:50same approach for ETFs and futures
- 11:53options. At the beginning of this video,
- 11:55I mentioned that at the end I'll reveal
- 11:58two strategies that probably account for
- 12:01more than 70% of my profits. So, here we
- 12:05go. Number 10. This one is a strategy to
- 12:08sell volatility or premium. I like to
- 12:10sell out of the money strangles. The
- 12:13short strangle is my go-to trade. It's
- 12:15been my number one and best performing
- 12:17options strategy throughout my career.
- 12:19We're going back four and a half
- 12:20decades. I prefer to use the 16 to 20
- 12:23delta short strikes at the expected
- 12:25move. I target 45 days to expiration.
- 12:28The short strangle is the most capital
- 12:30efficient, undefined risk trade, and
- 12:33it's always done as a single click. No
- 12:35legging here. The trade works best when
- 12:38IVR is super high. The higher the
- 12:39better. The profit target is always 50%
- 12:42of the credit received, and the
- 12:44adjustments to a short strangle are very
- 12:46common, and they're also necessary to
- 12:48keep your deltas under control. You
- 12:50adjust your strikes of a short strangle
- 12:53by rolling the untested side up or down.
- 12:56You can always skew your deltas with
- 12:58strangles to reflect bias, but the trade
- 13:02is much more about short premium, short
- 13:04time value, than it is about anything
- 13:06else. The strategy can be used on listed
- 13:09equity options, can be used on index
- 13:11options, ETFs, and even futures options.
- 13:16The short strangle has been, you know,
- 13:18something that I think, you know, every
- 13:20trader has kind of lived or died with
- 13:22for their entire career. The mistake
- 13:23that most people make when it comes to
- 13:25short strangles is that they trade them
- 13:27either too big and they don't have
- 13:28enough capital to support their size, or
- 13:30they trade them when volatility is too
- 13:31low. Your friend is high IVR, your
- 13:33friend is high implied volatility, and
- 13:35you must keep your size in check, and
- 13:37then keep your short strangles
- 13:39non-correlated. I would say that on an
- 13:41average day, I do at least two, three,
- 13:44four, or five short strangles in
- 13:45different underlings, and I adjust at
- 13:47least two, three, four, or five short
- 13:49strangles. So, it is absolutely the
- 13:51majority of my trades. Last and number
- 13:5411 is price reversion to the mean.
- 13:57This is where I get directional. There
- 13:59are two ways to play price reversion to
- 14:01the mean. One is by selling volatility,
- 14:03because volatility is a mathematical
- 14:05equation, and the other is by using a
- 14:06strategy that we call basis arb or pairs
- 14:09trading. It's a little more complex, but
- 14:11when volatility goes up, it must come
- 14:13down.
- 14:14And that is very different from price.
- 14:17When price goes up, it doesn't
- 14:18necessarily have to come down, but when
- 14:19volatility goes up, it has to come down.
- 14:21So, but selling volatility or buying it
- 14:24is not easy. Volatility contracts about
- 14:27double the time it expands. So, that's
- 14:29why we prefer the short side of implied
- 14:31volatility. As for pairs trading, you're
- 14:32essentially trading the spread between
- 14:34two products. We prefer to use futures
- 14:36for this, but you can also use stocks.
- 14:38Futures are just much more capital
- 14:40efficient than stocks. Pairs trades can
- 14:42also reduce the risk of two highly
- 14:45correlated underlings by up to 80%. But,
- 14:48the strategy still holds a ton of risk.
- 14:50So, no misconception here. The key to
- 14:52pairs trading is understanding
- 14:54volatility adjusted notional when it
- 14:56comes to the correct ratio to use. The
- 14:58profit target is subjective, but it
- 14:59should be in line with the risk or
- 15:01percentage of the daily move. Now, I
- 15:04don't use pairs trading every day, maybe
- 15:06a couple times a week, or maybe once or
- 15:08twice a week, but I do use what I call
- 15:12more of a subjective contrarian approach
- 15:14to implied volatility. Sometimes it's
- 15:16not a strangle, sometimes it might be a
- 15:17short call, sometimes it might just be a
- 15:19short put, sometimes it might just be
- 15:20the way I trade, and that makes up the
- 15:22majority of my trades along with short
- 15:23strangles. And that's where that 70%
- 15:26number comes in. All totaled, these 11
- 15:28strategies have served me well through
- 15:3045 years of trading. If you found this
- 15:32piece helpful, please like and share
- 15:35this video. Also, let me know your
- 15:36thoughts in the comments. I read
- 15:38everyone and I try to respond to every
- 15:39single comment. Thank you so much for
- 15:41your time.
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