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11 “Boring” Trading Strategies the top 1% of Retail Traders Use — Transcript

by Tom Sosnoff · 2,980 words · 432 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00I'm Tom Sosnoff. I've made over a
  2. 0:01million trades in my life. Last month, I
  3. 0:04looked back at everything I've traded
  4. 0:05and something clicked. Nearly every
  5. 0:07single trade I made was boring. I've
  6. 0:09been trading for 44 years. I've watched
  7. 0:13every genius strategy come and go.
  8. 0:14What's left are these 11 boring
  9. 0:16strategies that actually work. In this
  10. 0:18video, I'm going to walk you through
  11. 0:20what they are and how to use them. And
  12. 0:22at the end, I'll reveal the two that
  13. 0:24probably account for more than 70% of my
  14. 0:26profits. Number one, to get long, short
  15. 0:29puts. This is the simplest, highest
  16. 0:32probability, and most capital-efficient
  17. 0:33strategy. I always sell out of the money
  18. 0:35puts in the 35 to 50 DTE range at the
  19. 0:38expected move, targeting deltas between
  20. 0:4116 and 22 with a buying power reduction
  21. 0:43of 20% of the strike price and a
  22. 0:45probability of profit, which we call
  23. 0:47POP, over 80%. This is one of the most
  24. 0:49straightforward strategies in trading.
  25. 0:51It's simple, clean, and easy to adjust.
  26. 0:54Your profit target is about 50% of the
  27. 0:56premium collected. Also, I prefer
  28. 0:58selling puts on stocks that have been
  29. 1:00beaten down and where the IVR is 30% or
  30. 1:04more. There's an old saying in this
  31. 1:05business, puts are schmaltz. This is my
  32. 1:08favorite go-to strategy and probably my
  33. 1:10primary default approach to trading. A
  34. 1:13high POP approach every trader can
  35. 1:15execute. Number two, to get long, how
  36. 1:17about a jade lizard? Short puts and
  37. 1:20short call spreads. The jade lizard is a
  38. 1:22short put combined with a short call
  39. 1:24spread kicker. This is a great strategy
  40. 1:27for bulls who want just a little more
  41. 1:29downside protection. The keys to a jade
  42. 1:31lizard are to position the trade so
  43. 1:34there's no upside risk. To do that,
  44. 1:36[music] you need to sell a put and a
  45. 1:37short call spread where the combined
  46. 1:39premium collected exceeds the width of
  47. 1:41the strikes on the short call spread.
  48. 1:43The optimal duration for a jade lizard
  49. 1:45is around 40 DTE. That's 40 days to
  50. 1:47expiration. Selling the out of the money
  51. 1:49put and the call spread at just inside
  52. 1:52the expected move usually yields the
  53. 1:54necessary premium. The jade lizard is a
  54. 1:56capital-efficient, very high pop trade
  55. 1:59that can be done with a single click on
  56. 2:01[music] virtually any platform. Your
  57. 2:02profit target is approximately 50% of
  58. 2:05the total premium collected. This is a
  59. 2:08heavily used strategy, especially with
  60. 2:10oversold stocks and futures options.
  61. 2:12I've used this strategy recently in
  62. 2:14Nike, in Uber, in Netflix, and in crude
  63. 2:17oil. I would say that Jay's Lizard, next
  64. 2:20to short puts, is my go-to long
  65. 2:22strategy. Number three, to get long,
  66. 2:25covered calls. This is the classic basis
  67. 2:28reduction high pop trade that every
  68. 2:30trader has used in their journey.
  69. 2:32Ideally, you would execute a covered
  70. 2:35call on a stock that has a low basis,
  71. 2:37that means low price, and high implied
  72. 2:39volatility. This is not the most capital
  73. 2:41efficient strategy, but it does improve
  74. 2:43your pop from approximately 54% to
  75. 2:47around 64%, which is significant. The
  76. 2:50perfect covered call duration is 40 to
  77. 2:5260 days to expiration, which gives the
  78. 2:54buyer time to be right. We always
  79. 2:56execute covered calls as a single trade,
  80. 2:59the stock and options together, and the
  81. 3:01short strike will be somewhere between
  82. 3:03the 25 and 30 delta option. You should
  83. 3:06consider taking profits if the short
  84. 3:08strike is breached. Not everybody tells
  85. 3:10you that. We will always close a covered
  86. 3:13call strategy as a single trade, never
  87. 3:15legging out. Also, if you want to
  88. 3:18maintain some long deltas after you
  89. 3:20close the trade, you can always replace
  90. 3:22a covered call with an out-of-the-money
  91. 3:24short put. Now, I like this strategy for
  92. 3:26cheaper stocks that I believe are
  93. 3:28oversold and stocks that have crappy or
  94. 3:32non-existent option markets, [music]
  95. 3:33such as stocks like maybe like Lucid
  96. 3:36LCID or SOXS, different ETFs like that.
  97. 3:40I would say that I use covered calls
  98. 3:42less often than short puts and less
  99. 3:44often than Jay Lizards, but it's kind of
  100. 3:46like a once-a-week cheap stock strategy
  101. 3:50for me, and it's something that I think
  102. 3:52every trader should experience because
  103. 3:54the combination of stocks and options in
  104. 3:56a single trade is important to
  105. 3:57understand how that works. Number four,
  106. 3:59to get long, short put spreads. For
  107. 4:02those looking for a defined risk trade,
  108. 4:04an out-of-the-money short put spread is
  109. 4:05a high pop, low risk, low reward
  110. 4:08strategy. Another reason for using a
  111. 4:11short put vertical is capital
  112. 4:12efficiency. Sometimes, the buy power
  113. 4:15reduction or BPR on expensive stocks
  114. 4:17simply requires too much portfolio
  115. 4:19capital on a percentage basis. The
  116. 4:21target credit for a short vertical
  117. 4:23spread is somewhere between 30 and 35%
  118. 4:27of the width of the strikes. The
  119. 4:28probability of profit is the inverse of
  120. 4:30the credit received from the width of
  121. 4:32the strikes. Simple math. The profit
  122. 4:34target is still 50% of the credit
  123. 4:36received, but it may take a little
  124. 4:38longer to reach your number when
  125. 4:39compared to a naked option. The short
  126. 4:40put spread is a great go-to strategy and
  127. 4:44also a great introduction to option
  128. 4:47trading. Now, here's my little side note
  129. 4:49on short put spreads. Because short put
  130. 4:52spreads generally trade cheap, I like
  131. 4:55short call spreads to get short better
  132. 4:57than I like short put spreads to get
  133. 4:58long. I will occasionally use short put
  134. 5:00spreads, especially if I think a stock
  135. 5:03is just requires too much capital to
  136. 5:05use. Normally, I prefer naked short puts
  137. 5:08to short put spreads. Still, I do use
  138. 5:11short put spreads. I like to use them in
  139. 5:13combination sometimes with other
  140. 5:15strategies, and I would say it's a once
  141. 5:17or twice a week strategy for me. Number
  142. 5:18five, to get long. We're switching to
  143. 5:20the long side now. Put ratio spreads. A
  144. 5:23put ratio spread is another high pop
  145. 5:25strategy that works best with oversold
  146. 5:28stocks that have high implied
  147. 5:29volatility. It's a version of a naked
  148. 5:30short put, but with some additional
  149. 5:32downside protection. You can use any
  150. 5:34ratio you like, but most traders use a
  151. 5:36straightforward 1x2 approach. The
  152. 5:38objective of a put ratio spread is to
  153. 5:41set a trade up outside of the expected
  154. 5:43move. That's where your long strike is
  155. 5:45set, and then sell twice as many further
  156. 5:47out of the money puts to generate a net
  157. 5:49credit. It's a long delta short premium
  158. 5:52trade that does require some undefined
  159. 5:55risk. The profit target for a put ratio
  160. 5:57spread is at least the net credit
  161. 5:59received. Any strategy where you
  162. 6:00potentially risk a lot to make a little
  163. 6:03should deliver an incredibly high win
  164. 6:05rate. The one thing that I always take
  165. 6:07from my experience trading for, you
  166. 6:09know, over four decades, is that put
  167. 6:12ratio spreads as a market maker and a
  168. 6:14floor trader was one of the first things
  169. 6:16that every trader learns how to do. Sell
  170. 6:17some puts and then buy a few bigger puts
  171. 6:19against it. I think as a retail
  172. 6:21investor, we have popularized the short
  173. 6:25put ratio spread or the put ratio spread
  174. 6:27simply because it has such a high pop. I
  175. 6:29would say this is a strategy I use um
  176. 6:31maybe not every day, but at least three
  177. 6:34to four times a week. Number six, also
  178. 6:36to get short. Short call spreads. A
  179. 6:39short call vertical is possibly the most
  180. 6:42capital efficient and best way to get
  181. 6:45short a stock with limited risk. Call
  182. 6:47spreads generally trade expensive
  183. 6:49because of the inherent call skew priced
  184. 6:51into options. The velocity of risk to
  185. 6:53the upside is what we call call skew. I
  186. 6:55prefer to sell call spreads just inside
  187. 6:57the expected move. Collect about 1/3 the
  188. 6:59width of the strikes. Your pop or
  189. 7:01probability of profit will be the
  190. 7:02inverse of the credit received minus the
  191. 7:04width of the strikes. A short call
  192. 7:05spread should have between a 60 to 70%
  193. 7:09pop, meaning you're collecting between
  194. 7:1130 to 40% of the width of the strikes.
  195. 7:13And they are great use of capital to
  196. 7:14reduce some portfolio long deltas. The
  197. 7:17optimal duration for a short call spread
  198. 7:20is between 30 and 50 DTE. And the profit
  199. 7:22[music] target should be around 50%. I
  200. 7:25feel that the short call spreads work
  201. 7:26best with stocks that you believe are
  202. 7:28overpriced or too expensive relative to
  203. 7:31the rest of the market. Again, I use
  204. 7:33call spreads in ETFs, indexes, and
  205. 7:36expensive stocks all the time. I would
  206. 7:38say I have more short call spreads on
  207. 7:40right now. It's probably my second
  208. 7:42largest portfolio position next to naked
  209. 7:45strangles, which we'll talk about a
  210. 7:46little bit later. But, naked short call
  211. 7:48spreads is the way that I get short
  212. 7:50deltas in the Qs and the Spys,
  213. 7:52>> [music]
  214. 7:52>> in a lot of stocks that have kind of
  215. 7:54what people believe is this just crazy,
  216. 7:57you know, one-dimensional upside or
  217. 7:58hyperbolic upside risk. And I feel like
  218. 8:01short call spreads, because of the skew,
  219. 8:03just trade very rich relative to put
  220. 8:04spreads. Number seven, also to get
  221. 8:06short, the BWB or broken wing butterfly
  222. 8:09is a two-part strategy built into a
  223. 8:11single order. It's a combination of a
  224. 8:13long butterfly and a short vertical
  225. 8:15spread. The broken wing butterfly has
  226. 8:17net short deltas, but offers added
  227. 8:20protection against an up move. Kind of a
  228. 8:22little weird. The perfect duration is
  229. 8:24about a month out in time, and you'll
  230. 8:26want to set up your long strike at the
  231. 8:28expected move and your short strike just
  232. 8:30outside of the expected move. The
  233. 8:31strategy is a long one short two long
  234. 8:34one, which we also call a skip strike
  235. 8:37butterfly. In order to increase your
  236. 8:38POP, you should always execute broken
  237. 8:41wing butterflies for a net credit. This
  238. 8:43is a strategy you could use for earnings
  239. 8:46or for any stock you believe has gotten
  240. 8:48ahead of itself based on price. The
  241. 8:50profit target for a broken wing
  242. 8:51butterfly is at least the net credit
  243. 8:53received. If the trade goes your way, it
  244. 8:56is also possible to buy back the
  245. 8:58embedded short call vertical for less
  246. 9:00than the credit received, and then you
  247. 9:01own the remaining original butterfly for
  248. 9:04free. When that happens, it's fun. I
  249. 9:06love broken wing butterflies for the
  250. 9:08upside, much more so than I like them
  251. 9:09for the downside. The reason I don't
  252. 9:10like the downside is because the
  253. 9:12downside trades too cheap, but the
  254. 9:13upside trades rich. So, I think broken
  255. 9:16wing butterflies as a way to get short
  256. 9:18deltas with upside protection is a
  257. 9:20strategy we use, especially for
  258. 9:22earnings, but also for runaway stocks. I
  259. 9:24would say I use this strategy a couple
  260. 9:26of times a week, one, two, or three
  261. 9:28times a week. Number eight, to get
  262. 9:30short, sell a skewed or unbalanced iron
  263. 9:33condor. The unbalanced iron condor is a
  264. 9:35short premium trade with a directional
  265. 9:38kicker.
  266. 9:39Because call spreads trade richer than
  267. 9:41put spreads, for a skewed Iron Condor,
  268. 9:43we like to sell a call spread that is
  269. 9:45wider than the put spread. Also gives
  270. 9:46you the short deltas that way. For
  271. 9:48example, an unbalanced Iron Condor may
  272. 9:50be a short $10 wide call spread and a
  273. 9:52short $5 wide put spread. It's still
  274. 9:55done as a single trade. This is a
  275. 9:57capital efficient high pop trade with
  276. 9:59defined risk, short premium, and some
  277. 10:02short deltas. The optimal short strike
  278. 10:04will be at the expected move of some 40
  279. 10:06days to expiration. You should look to
  280. 10:08collect around half the width of the
  281. 10:10strikes in total on the narrower side,
  282. 10:12and the profit target is 50% of the
  283. 10:16total credit collected. This is not a
  284. 10:17trade we will leg into or out of. Even
  285. 10:20with configurable strikes, it is a
  286. 10:22single click trade. And again, just to
  287. 10:24refresh something, you'd look to collect
  288. 10:2750% of the credit of the narrower
  289. 10:29strikes in this case, cuz you won't be
  290. 10:31collecting 50% of the wider strikes.
  291. 10:33This is a strategy that I use all the
  292. 10:35time when I want to get directionally
  293. 10:37short, but I want to have myself have a
  294. 10:40little bit of a downside kicker. It's
  295. 10:42like a Jade Lizard with a kicker. I love
  296. 10:44this trade for getting short, but giving
  297. 10:46myself a little bit of deltas from the
  298. 10:49short put spread to offset some of the
  299. 10:51upside risk. It's a trade again that we
  300. 10:53use maybe one to two times a week, but
  301. 10:56it's a trade that I especially like in
  302. 10:57runaway markets. Number nine, something
  303. 11:00different. To sell volatility and to
  304. 11:02sell premium. First, we like to sell an
  305. 11:04Iron Condor. A short Iron Condor is a
  306. 11:06defined risk version of a short
  307. 11:07strangle. An Iron Condor usually seeks a
  308. 11:10combined credit of between 30 and 40% of
  309. 11:13the width of strikes. It's a high pop
  310. 11:15trade, limited risk trade that requires
  311. 11:19a stock or index to remain range bound.
  312. 11:21You're essentially challenging the
  313. 11:22underlying stock to beat you rather than
  314. 11:25the other way around. It's a simple
  315. 11:27strategy executed with a single click.
  316. 11:29We generally target between 30 and 50%
  317. 11:32of the credit received, but it is not a
  318. 11:33strategy that is easy to adjust or
  319. 11:35modify. So, I find iron condors a great
  320. 11:38engagement strategy that requires super
  321. 11:41high IVR to be profitable over long
  322. 11:43stretches. Most iron condors are easy
  323. 11:45fills that execute just a penny or two
  324. 11:48around mid price, and you can use the
  325. 11:50same approach for ETFs and futures
  326. 11:53options. At the beginning of this video,
  327. 11:55I mentioned that at the end I'll reveal
  328. 11:58two strategies that probably account for
  329. 12:01more than 70% of my profits. So, here we
  330. 12:05go. Number 10. This one is a strategy to
  331. 12:08sell volatility or premium. I like to
  332. 12:10sell out of the money strangles. The
  333. 12:13short strangle is my go-to trade. It's
  334. 12:15been my number one and best performing
  335. 12:17options strategy throughout my career.
  336. 12:19We're going back four and a half
  337. 12:20decades. I prefer to use the 16 to 20
  338. 12:23delta short strikes at the expected
  339. 12:25move. I target 45 days to expiration.
  340. 12:28The short strangle is the most capital
  341. 12:30efficient, undefined risk trade, and
  342. 12:33it's always done as a single click. No
  343. 12:35legging here. The trade works best when
  344. 12:38IVR is super high. The higher the
  345. 12:39better. The profit target is always 50%
  346. 12:42of the credit received, and the
  347. 12:44adjustments to a short strangle are very
  348. 12:46common, and they're also necessary to
  349. 12:48keep your deltas under control. You
  350. 12:50adjust your strikes of a short strangle
  351. 12:53by rolling the untested side up or down.
  352. 12:56You can always skew your deltas with
  353. 12:58strangles to reflect bias, but the trade
  354. 13:02is much more about short premium, short
  355. 13:04time value, than it is about anything
  356. 13:06else. The strategy can be used on listed
  357. 13:09equity options, can be used on index
  358. 13:11options, ETFs, and even futures options.
  359. 13:16The short strangle has been, you know,
  360. 13:18something that I think, you know, every
  361. 13:20trader has kind of lived or died with
  362. 13:22for their entire career. The mistake
  363. 13:23that most people make when it comes to
  364. 13:25short strangles is that they trade them
  365. 13:27either too big and they don't have
  366. 13:28enough capital to support their size, or
  367. 13:30they trade them when volatility is too
  368. 13:31low. Your friend is high IVR, your
  369. 13:33friend is high implied volatility, and
  370. 13:35you must keep your size in check, and
  371. 13:37then keep your short strangles
  372. 13:39non-correlated. I would say that on an
  373. 13:41average day, I do at least two, three,
  374. 13:44four, or five short strangles in
  375. 13:45different underlings, and I adjust at
  376. 13:47least two, three, four, or five short
  377. 13:49strangles. So, it is absolutely the
  378. 13:51majority of my trades. Last and number
  379. 13:5411 is price reversion to the mean.
  380. 13:57This is where I get directional. There
  381. 13:59are two ways to play price reversion to
  382. 14:01the mean. One is by selling volatility,
  383. 14:03because volatility is a mathematical
  384. 14:05equation, and the other is by using a
  385. 14:06strategy that we call basis arb or pairs
  386. 14:09trading. It's a little more complex, but
  387. 14:11when volatility goes up, it must come
  388. 14:13down.
  389. 14:14And that is very different from price.
  390. 14:17When price goes up, it doesn't
  391. 14:18necessarily have to come down, but when
  392. 14:19volatility goes up, it has to come down.
  393. 14:21So, but selling volatility or buying it
  394. 14:24is not easy. Volatility contracts about
  395. 14:27double the time it expands. So, that's
  396. 14:29why we prefer the short side of implied
  397. 14:31volatility. As for pairs trading, you're
  398. 14:32essentially trading the spread between
  399. 14:34two products. We prefer to use futures
  400. 14:36for this, but you can also use stocks.
  401. 14:38Futures are just much more capital
  402. 14:40efficient than stocks. Pairs trades can
  403. 14:42also reduce the risk of two highly
  404. 14:45correlated underlings by up to 80%. But,
  405. 14:48the strategy still holds a ton of risk.
  406. 14:50So, no misconception here. The key to
  407. 14:52pairs trading is understanding
  408. 14:54volatility adjusted notional when it
  409. 14:56comes to the correct ratio to use. The
  410. 14:58profit target is subjective, but it
  411. 14:59should be in line with the risk or
  412. 15:01percentage of the daily move. Now, I
  413. 15:04don't use pairs trading every day, maybe
  414. 15:06a couple times a week, or maybe once or
  415. 15:08twice a week, but I do use what I call
  416. 15:12more of a subjective contrarian approach
  417. 15:14to implied volatility. Sometimes it's
  418. 15:16not a strangle, sometimes it might be a
  419. 15:17short call, sometimes it might just be a
  420. 15:19short put, sometimes it might just be
  421. 15:20the way I trade, and that makes up the
  422. 15:22majority of my trades along with short
  423. 15:23strangles. And that's where that 70%
  424. 15:26number comes in. All totaled, these 11
  425. 15:28strategies have served me well through
  426. 15:3045 years of trading. If you found this
  427. 15:32piece helpful, please like and share
  428. 15:35this video. Also, let me know your
  429. 15:36thoughts in the comments. I read
  430. 15:38everyone and I try to respond to every
  431. 15:39single comment. Thank you so much for
  432. 15:41your time.

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