"유가는 누구도 예측 못 합니다"…100달러 롤러코스터에도 배당과 통행료로 버는 에너지 주식은 따로 있다 | 김상원 스트래직핏 파트너 — Transcript
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- 0:00It means that AI is providing new
- 0:02business opportunities to oil and gas
- 0:04companies. And if you look, energy
- 0:06companies are directly entering the data
- 0:09center power generation business.
- 0:12Chevron, for instance, has signed a 20-
- 0:14year contract to supply power to data
- 0:17centers built by Microsoft, and since
- 0:19energy is, as we've said, the foundation
- 0:22of all industries, holding stocks in
- 0:24companies that handle everything from
- 0:27upstream to downstream could be a good
- 0:29investment.
- 0:37Hello. This is Lee Hyo-seok. Today, I
- 0:39have invited Dr. Kim Sang-won. Hello.
- 0:42>> Yes, greetings. I am Kim Sang-won.
- 0:45>> Yes. I think I should ask you for a
- 0:47brief self-introduction first.
- 0:48>> Yes.
- 0:50I am Kim Sang-won, and I work in Houston
- 0:53, USA, providing management strategy
- 0:55consulting for energy companies.
- 0:58For this
- 1:00"
- 1:00>> 2027 US Investment Trends" book,
- 1:04>> I authored the section on oil and gas,
- 1:06as well as traditional fossil fuels.
- 1:08>> Yes. Yes.
- 1:10In this book, "2027 US Investment Trends
- 1:13,"
- 1:13>> you covered the oil sector; personally,
- 1:16when I think of oil, I think of
- 1:18traditional energy,
- 1:20>> thinking it's something old, but looking
- 1:23back at this year, there have been so
- 1:25many stories, so many important news
- 1:27items that I wonder if there’s ever been
- 1:30a time with this much going on. So, oil
- 1:32prices, which started around $ 50 to $
- 1:3460 at the beginning of the year, went
- 1:36through the Venezuela war. There was the
- 1:39Iran-related war. The Strait of Hormuz
- 1:41was blocked. Due to various issues like
- 1:43these, it has now climbed to the $ 100
- 1:46level.
- 1:47So at this point, we need to review the
- 1:50past year and talk about what will
- 1:52happen next year and how the energy
- 1:54industry will change, but first, I think
- 1:57we should discuss the midterm elections
- 2:00.
- 2:01I thought the Democratic Party would win
- 2:03the midterm elections, but they won by a
- 2:05landslide. How is the local atmosphere?
- 2:09Yes, as you said, there were many
- 2:12forecasts that the Democrats would be
- 2:15dominant, but even in traditionally
- 2:18Republican-leaning areas like Houston,
- 2:22Texas, where I am, the Democrats swept
- 2:25the governor, senator, lieutenant
- 2:28governor, and even the attorney general
- 2:31positions, which is a major upset, and
- 2:35the news here is constantly discussing
- 2:38how things will change now that the
- 2:41Democrats have taken control of the
- 2:45legislature.
- 2:46>> I see.
- 2:47Texas and Houston are truly the
- 2:49Republican Party's traditional
- 2:51stronghold.
- 2:53>> That's right. This is a place where
- 2:54Republicans would get elected no matter
- 2:56what they did.
- 2:57>> Uh
- 2:58>> So, what on earth did they do? What did
- 3:00they do to have it flip to the
- 3:01Democratic Party? Ah, that’s what I’m
- 3:03thinking.
- 3:05That’s why, actually, the Trump
- 3:07administration, even Vice President
- 3:09Pence, is already drawing lines, saying
- 3:11, "Oh, this happened because Trump
- 3:13started a war."
- 3:15With such remarks, there are a lot of
- 3:17various stories coming out right now.
- 3:21So, first off, how should we look at the
- 3:23Trump administration's energy policy
- 3:26regarding energy prices?
- 3:29>> Yes, there are some complex factors
- 3:31involved.
- 3:33Actually, if you only look at energy
- 3:36prices, as you mentioned, before the war
- 3:38, it was around the 50 to 60 dollar
- 3:41level.
- 3:42>> Hmm.
- 3:43>> As the war broke out, it went between 80
- 3:46and 100 dollars.
- 3:48But nobody knew whether the Strait of
- 3:51Hormuz would be blockaded for a long
- 3:53time or when the war would end.
- 3:56But it fluctuated between 80 and 100
- 3:58dollars. If you look at past energy
- 4:01shocks, adjusted for current dollar
- 4:03value, it went up to almost 150 dollars
- 4:05. Hmm.
- 4:07>> So, energy prices didn't skyrocket as
- 4:10much as people had feared.
- 4:14However, it inevitably affects gasoline
- 4:17prices.
- 4:19And besides gasoline, diesel and heating
- 4:21oil prices have also risen tremendously
- 4:23lately.
- 4:24>> Of course, it affected inflation and
- 4:27other things overall, and energy prices
- 4:29are just one part of it.
- 4:32In fact, the Trump administration put
- 4:34forth "Energy Dominance," America's
- 4:37energy dominance policy, and as they
- 4:40said last year, "Drill, baby, drill" for
- 4:43oil and gas and traditional fossil fuels
- 4:46.
- 4:46That’s right.
- 4:49>> They actively encouraged production.
- 4:52Unlike the previous administration.
- 4:54>> That’s right. In that sense, they
- 4:56actually had many elements in place that
- 4:58could have sufficiently curbed prices.
- 5:00>> They said they would increase supply to
- 5:03stabilize energy prices, but then they
- 5:06started a war.
- 5:07>> Yes, they started a war, and energy
- 5:10prices went up.
- 5:12But besides energy prices, the hidden
- 5:15costs of war are enormous, and other
- 5:17overall prices, such as medical
- 5:19insurance, have also risen significantly
- 5:22.
- 5:24>> And these days, the biggest topic is how
- 5:26the people who have, the billionaires,
- 5:29and the remaining few—the billionaires
- 5:31...
- 5:33...
- 5:33>> are colluding with power to take it all
- 5:35for themselves, leaving the rest of us
- 5:37behind.
- 5:38I think those things have combined in a
- 5:41very complex way to lead to this
- 5:43situation. Mm-hmm.
- 5:45Actually, there are many reasons why
- 5:47Trump received such negative evaluations
- 5:49, but I think the feeling that "they are
- 5:51taking everything for themselves" played
- 5:53a part.
- 5:54I think it's also a problem that they "
- 5:56helped themselves" to so much that
- 5:58people were asking, "Can they really do
- 6:00that?" regarding what his family members
- 6:03were doing.
- 6:05Beyond the U.S., a notable feature of
- 6:07this book is the discussion of the
- 6:09transformation of the oil and gas
- 6:11industries in the U.K. and Canada, which
- 6:13are topics not easily encountered
- 6:15elsewhere.
- 6:17Could you please introduce those topics
- 6:19for us?
- 6:19>> Yes. Yes. Yes. In the case of the U.K.,
- 6:22the North Sea—which is actually to the
- 6:25east and north of the U.K., so the
- 6:27British call it the North Sea—
- 6:31>> has a long history, having developed its
- 6:35oil and natural gas resources for
- 6:38decades.
- 6:41The resources from there were once so
- 6:45vast that production was almost on par
- 6:48with that of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
- 6:53>> But as time passed,
- 6:55>> drilling costs rose, and the British
- 6:59government introduced many regulations.
- 7:04For instance, the total tax rate there
- 7:08is 78%. Ah.
- 7:10>> That is an enormous tax burden.
- 7:13>> On top of that, the U.K. is pursuing a
- 7:16Net Zero...
- 7:18>> Since they are implementing a Net Zero
- 7:19policy,
- 7:20>> yes, by doing that, oil and gas
- 7:23companies can no longer operate,
- 7:26>> which is effectively the government
- 7:27telling them not to do business. If it
- 7:28reaches that point, really.
- 7:30>> So, there has been consolidation.
- 7:34>> Large companies are leaving, and either
- 7:37smaller companies are merging, or larger
- 7:41ones are spinning off their North Sea
- 7:44assets to form joint ventures, but as a
- 7:48result, the U.K. is forced to import the
- 7:51fuel and natural gas it needs for its
- 7:55own homes.
- 7:57Yes. So that Net Zero...
- 7:58>> Moreover, they end up being pushed
- 8:01around by Russia, so naturally, there's
- 8:05frustration growing internally.
- 8:07>> Uh.
- 8:08>> Yes. Yes.
- 8:09So, I'm saying that Net Zero is quite
- 8:11difficult to achieve, and in the case of
- 8:13Canada, it is a country with incredibly
- 8:15abundant resources.
- 8:17However, all the resources are in the
- 8:20province of Alberta, and to reach
- 8:22markets via pipelines, they have to
- 8:25cross British Columbia, but due to heavy
- 8:28regulations from both the British
- 8:30Columbia government and the Liberal
- 8:33federal government, most of those
- 8:35resources are currently being exported
- 8:38to the U.S. But with disputes arising
- 8:40over tariffs and policies with the U.S.
- 8:43,
- 8:44there is a growing sentiment that they
- 8:46need to send these resources to the
- 8:49Pacific or Asia instead.
- 8:51So, these days, the trend is actually
- 8:54shifting toward encouraging oil and gas
- 8:57development more.
- 8:59Canada is.
- 9:00>> So, what we can learn from the cases of
- 9:03Canada and the UK is that policies where
- 9:07they choose not to use the resources on
- 9:10their own land for the sake of net-zero
- 9:13—while well-intentioned—are ultimately
- 9:17very difficult to maintain.
- 9:20In our country's case, we don't have
- 9:23energy resources anyway, so we don't
- 9:25even have the luxury of making such
- 9:27decisions, but in the UK or Canada, they
- 9:30have them and just chose not to use them
- 9:32.
- 9:33They had them and deliberately didn't
- 9:35use them, but it’s really hard to stick
- 9:37to that when you face a shortage.
- 9:39It’s a very difficult choice.
- 9:41>> Yes, that’s right.
- 9:43It seems to be a case that shows how
- 9:45difficult it is to reduce carbon
- 9:47emissions, regardless of whether a
- 9:48country has resources or not.
- 9:51>> That’s true. Then, is there a
- 9:53possibility that from next year, we
- 9:56could see more energy production or an
- 9:58increase in supply from these regions?
- 10:02Oh, for Canada, there is definitely
- 10:04potential.
- 10:05They have sufficient gas and oil
- 10:08reserves, and the most urgent priority
- 10:10was opening up export routes to the
- 10:13Pacific in the west.
- 10:15But the atmosphere is changing lately,
- 10:19and since the UK's resources are
- 10:23generally aging, it would be difficult
- 10:27for them to discover new ones. The main
- 10:31focus will be on how much they can
- 10:34offset that decline. The UK, yes.
- 10:38>> So, I see.
- 10:41Moving on to the second question, does
- 10:44focusing on energy security mean we are
- 10:46abandoning carbon emission reduction or
- 10:48net-zero?
- 10:50We don't hear much about that anymore.
- 10:53>> I actually remember you saying last year
- 10:56during our talk that "the Earth doesn't
- 11:00wait."
- 11:01Yes. We aren't abandoning it. As far as
- 11:04I know, last year
- 11:06>> the total global carbon emissions
- 11:11>> decreased slightly for the first time
- 11:13since the pandemic. They had been rising
- 11:16steadily,
- 11:20>> but they dipped last year; whether this
- 11:23downward trend will continue or if they
- 11:26will bounce back remains to be seen.
- 11:30>> Ultimately, companies and countries
- 11:34>> still maintain their carbon reduction
- 11:37policies, and everyone is continuing to
- 11:39make investments and efforts in their
- 11:41own way.
- 11:43But while we all talk about "Net Zero by
- 11:472050" so easily, I think it will be
- 11:49realistically difficult to achieve that
- 11:53by 2050.
- 11:55I think it would be helpful to adjust
- 11:58the goals—for instance, by focusing on
- 12:01reducing carbon intensity rather than
- 12:03total carbon emissions, such as shifting
- 12:06from coal to natural gas—as seeking out
- 12:09such methods would still contribute to
- 12:12reducing emissions.
- 12:14>> It's not that we aren't doing it, but
- 12:16people are just not as interested as
- 12:17they were in the past; it doesn't mean
- 12:18it’s not happening. I think it would be
- 12:20good to leave it at that.
- 12:21>> Let’s move on to the topic of AI.
- 12:24I feel like AI has become the new master
- 12:30of energy and power demand.
- 12:35Data centers consume an enormous amount
- 12:37of electricity, which seems to be
- 12:40causing various frictions and problems;
- 12:42how should we view the relationship
- 12:45between the energy industry and AI?
- 12:48Yes.
- 12:49So, as you mentioned, on a basic level,
- 12:52we need the fuels required for power
- 12:54generation.
- 12:56>> Hmm.
- 12:56>> That can be used right away.
- 12:59>> While it would be great to rely entirely
- 13:03on renewable energy, there are many
- 13:06shortcomings, so natural gas is
- 13:09currently being used the most.
- 13:12As a realistic alternative, energy
- 13:15companies that produce natural gas can
- 13:18become key suppliers, and in fact,
- 13:21energy firms are now directly entering
- 13:25the data center power generation
- 13:27business.
- 13:30They aren't traditional utility
- 13:32companies, but Chevron, for example, has
- 13:36signed a 20-year contract to supply
- 13:38power to a data center built by
- 13:41Microsoft, and they are engaged in a
- 13:44power generation project using natural
- 13:47gas.
- 13:49This means that AI is providing new
- 13:52business opportunities for these energy
- 13:56, oil, and gas companies.
- 13:59Beyond their original
- 14:00>> resource development work.
- 14:02>> And
- 14:04>> On the other hand, the reason we talk
- 14:08about AI is that it improves our quality
- 14:11of life and brings innovation to our
- 14:15work, and these AI techniques are also
- 14:18very helpful to the work oil and gas
- 14:22companies do.
- 14:25Ultimately, it can play a role in
- 14:27helping oil and gas companies make
- 14:29decisions by quickly analyzing large
- 14:31amounts of data.
- 14:34For example, a company like ExxonMobil
- 14:38has set a goal to double productivity
- 14:41while producing shale, and it is using
- 14:45data from those shale operations to help
- 14:48determine the location of oil wells.
- 14:53Then it helps with reservoir design and
- 14:57optimization, so in a way, energy
- 15:00providers help the data centers that AI
- 15:04needs, while fossil fuel companies,
- 15:07conversely,
- 15:10>> ah, AI
- 15:11>> helps the oil and gas companies with
- 15:13their business, so they coexist and
- 15:16prosper together.
- 15:17>> There is that kind of relationship. They
- 15:19give each other opportunities.
- 15:20>> Should we call it quite paradoxical?
- 15:24Because of AI, energy is needed, and AI
- 15:27is used to develop energy, so to express
- 15:30this in one word, we could see it as AI
- 15:33for Energy and Energy for AI.
- 15:36>> Yes. Mutually, yes, prospering.
- 15:37>> I think the idea that they are
- 15:39interconnected is a very important
- 15:41keyword. But because of AI, we will need
- 15:43even more energy in the future.
- 15:46Ah, right now, it is the most available
- 15:49energy source.
- 15:52I mean, there is nuclear power, but it
- 15:54takes a long time and the scale is huge
- 15:57, so
- 15:59>> there are also cost aspects.
- 16:01>> In the case of natural gas, using it for
- 16:04power generation is a technology
- 16:06everyone has, and the necessary
- 16:08machinery or
- 16:10>> manpower, if you just have those, you
- 16:12can do it at any time. Yes. Uh, so it
- 16:14seems like it will be that way for the
- 16:16time being.
- 16:16>> I understand. Looking at the outlook for
- 16:19the energy industry in 2027, what trend
- 16:20do you think is the most important?
- 16:23Yes.
- 16:24Anyway, whether this geopolitical war
- 16:28will actually end, so as the Strait of
- 16:32Hormuz normalizes, how quickly the LNG
- 16:35tankers from Qatar that couldn't reach
- 16:39the market or the refineries that
- 16:43weren't operating can catch up once they
- 16:47restart is one factor.
- 16:51And we talk a lot about U.S. shale
- 16:53production, which has been increasing
- 16:56for nearly 20 years.
- 16:59So it's at about 13 million barrels per
- 17:02day now, but there are many questions
- 17:06arising as to whether this growth trend
- 17:09can really continue.
- 17:11So ultimately, no matter how much you
- 17:14increase productivity, you need to
- 17:17discover better shale buried in the
- 17:20ground, but most of the high-quality
- 17:23shale has already been found, so there
- 17:26are concerns that we may have to shift
- 17:29toward lower productivity areas.
- 17:32And for a while, the supermajors, if by
- 17:36supermajors you mean big oil companies,
- 17:39instead of increasing investment in the
- 17:42upstream, they have been focusing on
- 17:45returning their profits to shareholders
- 17:48through stock buybacks or dividends.
- 17:52>> Since they haven't spent money on
- 17:55developing new upstream resources for
- 17:57over 10 years,
- 17:59>> now,
- 18:00>> I think the balance might have shifted,
- 18:03and we could be entering a cycle where
- 18:05these major companies start investing
- 18:08more in the upstream sector; it’ll be
- 18:10interesting to keep an eye on.
- 18:13>> Yes. Oh, I think this is a very
- 18:15important point from an investment
- 18:16perspective, specifically when it comes
- 18:18to stock market investing.
- 18:21Because if these major players, who
- 18:23haven't been investing capital but just
- 18:25paying out dividends, start investing
- 18:27again, I’m sure there will be companies
- 18:29that benefit from this.
- 18:32Ultimately, they’ll have to award
- 18:34contracts for things like drilling, and
- 18:36those companies could suddenly see an
- 18:39improvement in their business.
- 18:41>> Yes. Yes.
- 18:43So, in terms of the oil and gas supply
- 18:45chain, there are oilfield service
- 18:47companies like SLB, which Dr. Cheol Jung
- 18:49mentioned last time, or Halliburton.
- 18:53There are also countless companies that
- 18:56operate drilling rigs and other supply
- 18:59chain providers, so if upstream
- 19:01investment actually goes up, those
- 19:04companies are definitely worth watching
- 19:07.
- 19:08That makes sense. Understood. But after
- 19:10all is said and done, the recent
- 19:12interest seems to be in natural gas.
- 19:15Nuclear power is too far off, and solar
- 19:18power has too much variability, so
- 19:20natural gas or perhaps fuel cells seem
- 19:23like the best fit for the power needed
- 19:26by AI; shall we talk more about natural
- 19:29gas?
- 19:30>> Exactly. Yes.
- 19:32I believe South Korea imports LNG to
- 19:37meet about 30%of its power demand.
- 19:43And globally, it accounts for about 20%
- 19:48to 40%.
- 19:50Now, the fuel that would replace it is
- 19:54coal.
- 19:55In fact, coal still accounts for about
- 19:58one-third of global power generation
- 20:01resources.
- 20:03So it’s still more than gas. Yes.
- 20:05>> However, if you switch that to gas,
- 20:08while carbon emissions don't reach zero
- 20:11, it has the effect of reducing carbon
- 20:14emissions by 50-60%like renewable energy
- 20:17.
- 20:18>> So, while it's not zero, it acts as what
- 20:22we call a "bridge," and natural gas can
- 20:25play a role in accelerating the
- 20:28reduction of carbon emissions.
- 20:31Another good thing is that the reserves
- 20:34are still massive.
- 20:36That’s why the U.S. is not only the top
- 20:39producer of crude oil but also the
- 20:41largest exporter of LNG.
- 20:43Oh, in the entire world.
- 20:46And there are still huge shale gas
- 20:48reserves, and since the U.S. leads this
- 20:52market, there will likely be many more
- 20:55new LNG equipment and facility companies
- 20:59for some time to come.
- 21:01Exactly.
- 21:02>> And another important thing is being
- 21:05able to keep Russia in check; you see,
- 21:08Russia cut off its gas supply while
- 21:10waging that war. Europe.
- 21:13So they have to burn coal fuel in the
- 21:16morning, and they're paying more than
- 21:18double the gas price that the U.S. pays
- 21:21.
- 21:23>> So, I think there would be benefits if
- 21:26they source natural gas from the U.S.,
- 21:30Qatar, or Australia, which can keep
- 21:33Russia in check.
- 21:36The U.S.
- 21:38>> For the U.S., possessing natural gas is
- 21:41a huge strength, and I was surprised to
- 21:43read in an article recently that even
- 21:46Qatar...
- 21:48...
- 21:48>> is talking about importing natural gas
- 21:51from the U.S. I wondered why a country
- 21:53that exports as much natural gas as
- 21:56Qatar would do that, but the situation
- 21:59in the Middle East, like the Strait of
- 22:01Hormuz, is currently very unstable.
- 22:04>> Since Qatar has commitments to supply
- 22:07gas to outside partners,
- 22:09>> they are even importing U.S. gas to
- 22:11fulfill those needs.
- 22:13>> That’s the kind of situation we're
- 22:15seeing.
- 22:16So, it really struck me that, regarding
- 22:18natural gas alone, the situation is
- 22:21quite advantageous for the U.S.
- 22:23>> Yes. Yes. Yes.
- 22:25As for trade, crude oil producers often
- 22:29bypassed the Strait of Hormuz by
- 22:31building pipelines across land to the
- 22:35south and toward the Red Sea.
- 22:38>> But gas can only be transported by LNG
- 22:41tanker.
- 22:42>> Since it can't go anywhere without a
- 22:43pipeline, it must pass through the
- 22:45Strait of Hormuz, so they have to use
- 22:46tankers.
- 22:47>> Yes.
- 22:48>> And Qatar still doesn't have enough LNG
- 22:50tankers right now. So Qatar...
- 22:54...
- 22:55>> is either buying LNG tankers that were
- 22:57meant to be sold to others as a
- 22:59portfolio trade to fill the gap, or they
- 23:02are involved in the Golden Pass LNG
- 23:05project in the U.S. Through Exxon, they
- 23:07are doing that.
- 23:10>> Yes, LNG gas has that inherent weakness
- 23:13.
- 23:14That it has to be moved by LNG tanker. I
- 23:16see.
- 23:18Looking at what we discussed today, if
- 23:20we consider what energy really is, it
- 23:23can ultimately be seen as the most
- 23:25critical weapon in a hegemonic war.
- 23:29I mean, without energy, you can't wage a
- 23:31war, and without energy, you can't
- 23:33really throw your weight around.
- 23:35To put it simply.
- 23:37From the perspective of the US-China
- 23:40hegemonic war, how does it affect the
- 23:42energy industry?
- 23:44Big tech leaders in the US, including
- 23:47Elon Musk, seem to say things like, "
- 23:49China has so much energy, I'm envious."
- 23:53How should we view this?
- 23:54>> Yes. Yes.
- 23:56Well, I view all phenomena through the
- 23:59lens of energy.
- 24:01When looking at the US and China, the US
- 24:04is the world's largest producer of
- 24:07fossil fuels, while China is the world's
- 24:10largest importer of fossil fuels.
- 24:13Of course, China has many resources as
- 24:17well.
- 24:19However, it still relies heavily on
- 24:22imports for oil and gas.
- 24:26>> That's why a big reason for the
- 24:28Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) during the
- 24:31Biden administration a few years ago was
- 24:34that China had started to completely
- 24:36dominate the supply chain for rare earth
- 24:39elements and the components needed for
- 24:42EV battery production.
- 24:46So, in order to counter that, the US
- 24:48felt it needed to build its own EV
- 24:49battery and battery supply chains.
- 24:52That is indeed one of the major reasons
- 24:55why the IRA was initiated.
- 24:58Ultimately, it comes down to who will
- 25:00take the hegemony in next-generation
- 25:02energy and electric vehicles.
- 25:05There is a major rivalry between China
- 25:08and the US, and if we look at it
- 25:11accurately, I think China is currently
- 25:15winning decisively.
- 25:18Because although the US implemented the
- 25:21IRA, there were many hitches, the
- 25:24adoption of EVs has actually stalled,
- 25:27and people prefer hybrid engines.
- 25:31Here.
- 25:32>> In China, very fancy EVs are being
- 25:35supplied at very low prices, and they
- 25:38seem to be far ahead of the US.
- 25:43And another important thing is that
- 25:47regarding policy support, the US leaves
- 25:51it to the market, but in China, the
- 25:54government takes the lead and can
- 25:57control the market.
- 26:00That is the point. In that sense, for
- 26:03the energy business, China actually
- 26:06lacks resources. Even so, don't you
- 26:09think China has various advantages when
- 26:12it comes to policies like EVs that
- 26:15require the policy and market to work in
- 26:18tandem? Ah.
- 26:21>> So these days, there are actually far
- 26:22more major projects in China for clean
- 26:24hydrogen, whether green or blue, than in
- 26:26the rest of the world.
- 26:28Than the rest of the world. Yes.
- 26:30>> I see. Understood.
- 26:33Then, since this book is about US
- 26:36investment trends in 2027, if I were to
- 26:39ask what companies we could invest in
- 26:42based on our discussion about energy
- 26:45today, could you give us a few ideas?
- 26:49Yes. Yes. So, no one can really predict
- 26:53oil prices. Wars might or might not
- 26:56happen, and demand may rise or fall...
- 27:00but as we’ve discussed, energy is the
- 27:03foundation of all industries. If you
- 27:06hold shares in a supermajor—a large
- 27:09company that covers upstream, midstream
- 27:12, and downstream—I don't think you’ll be
- 27:16heavily affected by the cycles.
- 27:19>> I think it could be a good investment.
- 27:21So, in this book, we look at Shell, one
- 27:24of the supermajors based in the UK. Yes
- 27:27.
- 27:28>> For a long time, the corporate culture
- 27:31was, how should I put it, not very agile
- 27:34; decision-making was slow, bloated, and
- 27:37overly focused on tech investments.
- 27:42People thought they had a tendency to "
- 27:45gold-plate" everything and be flashier
- 27:48than other companies, but a few years
- 27:51ago, Wael Sawan, a Lebanese-Canadian,
- 27:53became CEO and completely transformed
- 27:56the firm.
- 27:58He stopped increasing capital
- 28:00expenditure.
- 28:03>> He narrowed the portfolio to invest only
- 28:06in projects with clear profitability,
- 28:09focusing on efficient capital deployment
- 28:12, and promised that 40 to 50 percent of
- 28:16cash flow would be returned to
- 28:18shareholders through buybacks or
- 28:21dividends.
- 28:24So, I think it has become a good
- 28:26investment choice.
- 28:30Also, they have gone all-in on natural
- 28:32gas; Shell’s portfolio now has more
- 28:35natural gas production than oil.
- 28:39And when it comes to trading in the LNG
- 28:41market, they are second to none. Yes.
- 28:43>> Yes. Yes.
- 28:45>> So that’s one company, and another one
- 28:48is Enbridge, based in Canada.
- 28:51>> This company is in the business of gas
- 28:54and oil pipelines, what we usually call
- 28:56midstream.
- 28:58They handle everything, including crude
- 29:01oil, natural gas, and power.
- 29:05Hmm. And
- 29:06>> The LNG business in the U.S. will
- 29:07continue to grow and thrive for a while
- 29:10.
- 29:10Someone has to expand the pipelines or
- 29:13build new gas transport lines for the
- 29:15LNG business to function.
- 29:19Since I see high growth potential for
- 29:21the U.S. LNG business, the good thing
- 29:24about this midstream sector is that they
- 29:27pay high dividends, and while the
- 29:30returns aren't as high as upstream, they
- 29:33are guaranteed.
- 29:35Around 7 or 8%, and these companies
- 29:39don't really take on those commodity
- 29:43price risks.
- 29:44So, these are companies where you can
- 29:48get a high-single-digit return of about
- 29:517 or 8%.
- 29:51>> Stable, yes, exactly. That's right.
- 29:54That’s how it happened. I introduced
- 29:56Shell and Enbridge in this book.
- 29:59>> I see.
- 30:01So, you provided ideas on which
- 30:03companies to invest in, not just the oil
- 30:06major Shell, but also Enbridge, a
- 30:09company expected to see steady profits
- 30:12and stock appreciation as the natural
- 30:15gas industry grows.
- 30:18If there is one part of this book you
- 30:21think readers must read, could you
- 30:23please tell us about it?
- 30:26Yes. Yes. Yes. As we discussed with the
- 30:29CEO, the chapters outside the main book
- 30:32cover the latest topics like AI, and I’d
- 30:35like people to know that AI, energy, and
- 30:37oil and gas are clearly interconnected.
- 30:40I hope readers understand that as we do
- 30:45.
- 30:47Achieving a balance between net-zero
- 30:49carbon emissions and energy supply and
- 30:52demand is actually very difficult.
- 30:56Regardless of whether one has resources
- 30:58or not, it's about pursuing both
- 31:00long-term perspectives and long-term
- 31:02changes simultaneously.
- 31:04And lastly, I would like to suggest
- 31:06taking an interest in natural gas.
- 31:09Interest in natural gas seems necessary
- 31:12now.
- 31:13>> Well, in the past, energy might have
- 31:16felt like something old-fashioned, but
- 31:19it is back in the spotlight because of
- 31:21AI, and I found the mention of a
- 31:24potential super-major investment cycle
- 31:26to be very impressive.
- 31:29I would also like to develop some
- 31:31investment ideas that might arise from
- 31:34that and share them with you all.
- 31:37That concludes our time with Dr. Kim
- 31:40Sang-won today. We will see you next
- 31:43time. Thank you.
- 31:45>> Yes. Thanks.
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