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"유가는 누구도 예측 못 합니다"…100달러 롤러코스터에도 배당과 통행료로 버는 에너지 주식은 따로 있다 | 김상원 스트래직핏 파트너 — Transcript

by 이효석아카데미 · 4,252 words · 739 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00It means that AI is providing new
  2. 0:02business opportunities to oil and gas
  3. 0:04companies. And if you look, energy
  4. 0:06companies are directly entering the data
  5. 0:09center power generation business.
  6. 0:12Chevron, for instance, has signed a 20-
  7. 0:14year contract to supply power to data
  8. 0:17centers built by Microsoft, and since
  9. 0:19energy is, as we've said, the foundation
  10. 0:22of all industries, holding stocks in
  11. 0:24companies that handle everything from
  12. 0:27upstream to downstream could be a good
  13. 0:29investment.
  14. 0:37Hello. This is Lee Hyo-seok. Today, I
  15. 0:39have invited Dr. Kim Sang-won. Hello.
  16. 0:42>> Yes, greetings. I am Kim Sang-won.
  17. 0:45>> Yes. I think I should ask you for a
  18. 0:47brief self-introduction first.
  19. 0:48>> Yes.
  20. 0:50I am Kim Sang-won, and I work in Houston
  21. 0:53, USA, providing management strategy
  22. 0:55consulting for energy companies.
  23. 0:58For this
  24. 1:00"
  25. 1:00>> 2027 US Investment Trends" book,
  26. 1:04>> I authored the section on oil and gas,
  27. 1:06as well as traditional fossil fuels.
  28. 1:08>> Yes. Yes.
  29. 1:10In this book, "2027 US Investment Trends
  30. 1:13,"
  31. 1:13>> you covered the oil sector; personally,
  32. 1:16when I think of oil, I think of
  33. 1:18traditional energy,
  34. 1:20>> thinking it's something old, but looking
  35. 1:23back at this year, there have been so
  36. 1:25many stories, so many important news
  37. 1:27items that I wonder if there’s ever been
  38. 1:30a time with this much going on. So, oil
  39. 1:32prices, which started around $ 50 to $
  40. 1:3460 at the beginning of the year, went
  41. 1:36through the Venezuela war. There was the
  42. 1:39Iran-related war. The Strait of Hormuz
  43. 1:41was blocked. Due to various issues like
  44. 1:43these, it has now climbed to the $ 100
  45. 1:46level.
  46. 1:47So at this point, we need to review the
  47. 1:50past year and talk about what will
  48. 1:52happen next year and how the energy
  49. 1:54industry will change, but first, I think
  50. 1:57we should discuss the midterm elections
  51. 2:00.
  52. 2:01I thought the Democratic Party would win
  53. 2:03the midterm elections, but they won by a
  54. 2:05landslide. How is the local atmosphere?
  55. 2:09Yes, as you said, there were many
  56. 2:12forecasts that the Democrats would be
  57. 2:15dominant, but even in traditionally
  58. 2:18Republican-leaning areas like Houston,
  59. 2:22Texas, where I am, the Democrats swept
  60. 2:25the governor, senator, lieutenant
  61. 2:28governor, and even the attorney general
  62. 2:31positions, which is a major upset, and
  63. 2:35the news here is constantly discussing
  64. 2:38how things will change now that the
  65. 2:41Democrats have taken control of the
  66. 2:45legislature.
  67. 2:46>> I see.
  68. 2:47Texas and Houston are truly the
  69. 2:49Republican Party's traditional
  70. 2:51stronghold.
  71. 2:53>> That's right. This is a place where
  72. 2:54Republicans would get elected no matter
  73. 2:56what they did.
  74. 2:57>> Uh
  75. 2:58>> So, what on earth did they do? What did
  76. 3:00they do to have it flip to the
  77. 3:01Democratic Party? Ah, that’s what I’m
  78. 3:03thinking.
  79. 3:05That’s why, actually, the Trump
  80. 3:07administration, even Vice President
  81. 3:09Pence, is already drawing lines, saying
  82. 3:11, "Oh, this happened because Trump
  83. 3:13started a war."
  84. 3:15With such remarks, there are a lot of
  85. 3:17various stories coming out right now.
  86. 3:21So, first off, how should we look at the
  87. 3:23Trump administration's energy policy
  88. 3:26regarding energy prices?
  89. 3:29>> Yes, there are some complex factors
  90. 3:31involved.
  91. 3:33Actually, if you only look at energy
  92. 3:36prices, as you mentioned, before the war
  93. 3:38, it was around the 50 to 60 dollar
  94. 3:41level.
  95. 3:42>> Hmm.
  96. 3:43>> As the war broke out, it went between 80
  97. 3:46and 100 dollars.
  98. 3:48But nobody knew whether the Strait of
  99. 3:51Hormuz would be blockaded for a long
  100. 3:53time or when the war would end.
  101. 3:56But it fluctuated between 80 and 100
  102. 3:58dollars. If you look at past energy
  103. 4:01shocks, adjusted for current dollar
  104. 4:03value, it went up to almost 150 dollars
  105. 4:05. Hmm.
  106. 4:07>> So, energy prices didn't skyrocket as
  107. 4:10much as people had feared.
  108. 4:14However, it inevitably affects gasoline
  109. 4:17prices.
  110. 4:19And besides gasoline, diesel and heating
  111. 4:21oil prices have also risen tremendously
  112. 4:23lately.
  113. 4:24>> Of course, it affected inflation and
  114. 4:27other things overall, and energy prices
  115. 4:29are just one part of it.
  116. 4:32In fact, the Trump administration put
  117. 4:34forth "Energy Dominance," America's
  118. 4:37energy dominance policy, and as they
  119. 4:40said last year, "Drill, baby, drill" for
  120. 4:43oil and gas and traditional fossil fuels
  121. 4:46.
  122. 4:46That’s right.
  123. 4:49>> They actively encouraged production.
  124. 4:52Unlike the previous administration.
  125. 4:54>> That’s right. In that sense, they
  126. 4:56actually had many elements in place that
  127. 4:58could have sufficiently curbed prices.
  128. 5:00>> They said they would increase supply to
  129. 5:03stabilize energy prices, but then they
  130. 5:06started a war.
  131. 5:07>> Yes, they started a war, and energy
  132. 5:10prices went up.
  133. 5:12But besides energy prices, the hidden
  134. 5:15costs of war are enormous, and other
  135. 5:17overall prices, such as medical
  136. 5:19insurance, have also risen significantly
  137. 5:22.
  138. 5:24>> And these days, the biggest topic is how
  139. 5:26the people who have, the billionaires,
  140. 5:29and the remaining few—the billionaires
  141. 5:31...
  142. 5:33...
  143. 5:33>> are colluding with power to take it all
  144. 5:35for themselves, leaving the rest of us
  145. 5:37behind.
  146. 5:38I think those things have combined in a
  147. 5:41very complex way to lead to this
  148. 5:43situation. Mm-hmm.
  149. 5:45Actually, there are many reasons why
  150. 5:47Trump received such negative evaluations
  151. 5:49, but I think the feeling that "they are
  152. 5:51taking everything for themselves" played
  153. 5:53a part.
  154. 5:54I think it's also a problem that they "
  155. 5:56helped themselves" to so much that
  156. 5:58people were asking, "Can they really do
  157. 6:00that?" regarding what his family members
  158. 6:03were doing.
  159. 6:05Beyond the U.S., a notable feature of
  160. 6:07this book is the discussion of the
  161. 6:09transformation of the oil and gas
  162. 6:11industries in the U.K. and Canada, which
  163. 6:13are topics not easily encountered
  164. 6:15elsewhere.
  165. 6:17Could you please introduce those topics
  166. 6:19for us?
  167. 6:19>> Yes. Yes. Yes. In the case of the U.K.,
  168. 6:22the North Sea—which is actually to the
  169. 6:25east and north of the U.K., so the
  170. 6:27British call it the North Sea—
  171. 6:31>> has a long history, having developed its
  172. 6:35oil and natural gas resources for
  173. 6:38decades.
  174. 6:41The resources from there were once so
  175. 6:45vast that production was almost on par
  176. 6:48with that of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
  177. 6:53>> But as time passed,
  178. 6:55>> drilling costs rose, and the British
  179. 6:59government introduced many regulations.
  180. 7:04For instance, the total tax rate there
  181. 7:08is 78%. Ah.
  182. 7:10>> That is an enormous tax burden.
  183. 7:13>> On top of that, the U.K. is pursuing a
  184. 7:16Net Zero...
  185. 7:18>> Since they are implementing a Net Zero
  186. 7:19policy,
  187. 7:20>> yes, by doing that, oil and gas
  188. 7:23companies can no longer operate,
  189. 7:26>> which is effectively the government
  190. 7:27telling them not to do business. If it
  191. 7:28reaches that point, really.
  192. 7:30>> So, there has been consolidation.
  193. 7:34>> Large companies are leaving, and either
  194. 7:37smaller companies are merging, or larger
  195. 7:41ones are spinning off their North Sea
  196. 7:44assets to form joint ventures, but as a
  197. 7:48result, the U.K. is forced to import the
  198. 7:51fuel and natural gas it needs for its
  199. 7:55own homes.
  200. 7:57Yes. So that Net Zero...
  201. 7:58>> Moreover, they end up being pushed
  202. 8:01around by Russia, so naturally, there's
  203. 8:05frustration growing internally.
  204. 8:07>> Uh.
  205. 8:08>> Yes. Yes.
  206. 8:09So, I'm saying that Net Zero is quite
  207. 8:11difficult to achieve, and in the case of
  208. 8:13Canada, it is a country with incredibly
  209. 8:15abundant resources.
  210. 8:17However, all the resources are in the
  211. 8:20province of Alberta, and to reach
  212. 8:22markets via pipelines, they have to
  213. 8:25cross British Columbia, but due to heavy
  214. 8:28regulations from both the British
  215. 8:30Columbia government and the Liberal
  216. 8:33federal government, most of those
  217. 8:35resources are currently being exported
  218. 8:38to the U.S. But with disputes arising
  219. 8:40over tariffs and policies with the U.S.
  220. 8:43,
  221. 8:44there is a growing sentiment that they
  222. 8:46need to send these resources to the
  223. 8:49Pacific or Asia instead.
  224. 8:51So, these days, the trend is actually
  225. 8:54shifting toward encouraging oil and gas
  226. 8:57development more.
  227. 8:59Canada is.
  228. 9:00>> So, what we can learn from the cases of
  229. 9:03Canada and the UK is that policies where
  230. 9:07they choose not to use the resources on
  231. 9:10their own land for the sake of net-zero
  232. 9:13—while well-intentioned—are ultimately
  233. 9:17very difficult to maintain.
  234. 9:20In our country's case, we don't have
  235. 9:23energy resources anyway, so we don't
  236. 9:25even have the luxury of making such
  237. 9:27decisions, but in the UK or Canada, they
  238. 9:30have them and just chose not to use them
  239. 9:32.
  240. 9:33They had them and deliberately didn't
  241. 9:35use them, but it’s really hard to stick
  242. 9:37to that when you face a shortage.
  243. 9:39It’s a very difficult choice.
  244. 9:41>> Yes, that’s right.
  245. 9:43It seems to be a case that shows how
  246. 9:45difficult it is to reduce carbon
  247. 9:47emissions, regardless of whether a
  248. 9:48country has resources or not.
  249. 9:51>> That’s true. Then, is there a
  250. 9:53possibility that from next year, we
  251. 9:56could see more energy production or an
  252. 9:58increase in supply from these regions?
  253. 10:02Oh, for Canada, there is definitely
  254. 10:04potential.
  255. 10:05They have sufficient gas and oil
  256. 10:08reserves, and the most urgent priority
  257. 10:10was opening up export routes to the
  258. 10:13Pacific in the west.
  259. 10:15But the atmosphere is changing lately,
  260. 10:19and since the UK's resources are
  261. 10:23generally aging, it would be difficult
  262. 10:27for them to discover new ones. The main
  263. 10:31focus will be on how much they can
  264. 10:34offset that decline. The UK, yes.
  265. 10:38>> So, I see.
  266. 10:41Moving on to the second question, does
  267. 10:44focusing on energy security mean we are
  268. 10:46abandoning carbon emission reduction or
  269. 10:48net-zero?
  270. 10:50We don't hear much about that anymore.
  271. 10:53>> I actually remember you saying last year
  272. 10:56during our talk that "the Earth doesn't
  273. 11:00wait."
  274. 11:01Yes. We aren't abandoning it. As far as
  275. 11:04I know, last year
  276. 11:06>> the total global carbon emissions
  277. 11:11>> decreased slightly for the first time
  278. 11:13since the pandemic. They had been rising
  279. 11:16steadily,
  280. 11:20>> but they dipped last year; whether this
  281. 11:23downward trend will continue or if they
  282. 11:26will bounce back remains to be seen.
  283. 11:30>> Ultimately, companies and countries
  284. 11:34>> still maintain their carbon reduction
  285. 11:37policies, and everyone is continuing to
  286. 11:39make investments and efforts in their
  287. 11:41own way.
  288. 11:43But while we all talk about "Net Zero by
  289. 11:472050" so easily, I think it will be
  290. 11:49realistically difficult to achieve that
  291. 11:53by 2050.
  292. 11:55I think it would be helpful to adjust
  293. 11:58the goals—for instance, by focusing on
  294. 12:01reducing carbon intensity rather than
  295. 12:03total carbon emissions, such as shifting
  296. 12:06from coal to natural gas—as seeking out
  297. 12:09such methods would still contribute to
  298. 12:12reducing emissions.
  299. 12:14>> It's not that we aren't doing it, but
  300. 12:16people are just not as interested as
  301. 12:17they were in the past; it doesn't mean
  302. 12:18it’s not happening. I think it would be
  303. 12:20good to leave it at that.
  304. 12:21>> Let’s move on to the topic of AI.
  305. 12:24I feel like AI has become the new master
  306. 12:30of energy and power demand.
  307. 12:35Data centers consume an enormous amount
  308. 12:37of electricity, which seems to be
  309. 12:40causing various frictions and problems;
  310. 12:42how should we view the relationship
  311. 12:45between the energy industry and AI?
  312. 12:48Yes.
  313. 12:49So, as you mentioned, on a basic level,
  314. 12:52we need the fuels required for power
  315. 12:54generation.
  316. 12:56>> Hmm.
  317. 12:56>> That can be used right away.
  318. 12:59>> While it would be great to rely entirely
  319. 13:03on renewable energy, there are many
  320. 13:06shortcomings, so natural gas is
  321. 13:09currently being used the most.
  322. 13:12As a realistic alternative, energy
  323. 13:15companies that produce natural gas can
  324. 13:18become key suppliers, and in fact,
  325. 13:21energy firms are now directly entering
  326. 13:25the data center power generation
  327. 13:27business.
  328. 13:30They aren't traditional utility
  329. 13:32companies, but Chevron, for example, has
  330. 13:36signed a 20-year contract to supply
  331. 13:38power to a data center built by
  332. 13:41Microsoft, and they are engaged in a
  333. 13:44power generation project using natural
  334. 13:47gas.
  335. 13:49This means that AI is providing new
  336. 13:52business opportunities for these energy
  337. 13:56, oil, and gas companies.
  338. 13:59Beyond their original
  339. 14:00>> resource development work.
  340. 14:02>> And
  341. 14:04>> On the other hand, the reason we talk
  342. 14:08about AI is that it improves our quality
  343. 14:11of life and brings innovation to our
  344. 14:15work, and these AI techniques are also
  345. 14:18very helpful to the work oil and gas
  346. 14:22companies do.
  347. 14:25Ultimately, it can play a role in
  348. 14:27helping oil and gas companies make
  349. 14:29decisions by quickly analyzing large
  350. 14:31amounts of data.
  351. 14:34For example, a company like ExxonMobil
  352. 14:38has set a goal to double productivity
  353. 14:41while producing shale, and it is using
  354. 14:45data from those shale operations to help
  355. 14:48determine the location of oil wells.
  356. 14:53Then it helps with reservoir design and
  357. 14:57optimization, so in a way, energy
  358. 15:00providers help the data centers that AI
  359. 15:04needs, while fossil fuel companies,
  360. 15:07conversely,
  361. 15:10>> ah, AI
  362. 15:11>> helps the oil and gas companies with
  363. 15:13their business, so they coexist and
  364. 15:16prosper together.
  365. 15:17>> There is that kind of relationship. They
  366. 15:19give each other opportunities.
  367. 15:20>> Should we call it quite paradoxical?
  368. 15:24Because of AI, energy is needed, and AI
  369. 15:27is used to develop energy, so to express
  370. 15:30this in one word, we could see it as AI
  371. 15:33for Energy and Energy for AI.
  372. 15:36>> Yes. Mutually, yes, prospering.
  373. 15:37>> I think the idea that they are
  374. 15:39interconnected is a very important
  375. 15:41keyword. But because of AI, we will need
  376. 15:43even more energy in the future.
  377. 15:46Ah, right now, it is the most available
  378. 15:49energy source.
  379. 15:52I mean, there is nuclear power, but it
  380. 15:54takes a long time and the scale is huge
  381. 15:57, so
  382. 15:59>> there are also cost aspects.
  383. 16:01>> In the case of natural gas, using it for
  384. 16:04power generation is a technology
  385. 16:06everyone has, and the necessary
  386. 16:08machinery or
  387. 16:10>> manpower, if you just have those, you
  388. 16:12can do it at any time. Yes. Uh, so it
  389. 16:14seems like it will be that way for the
  390. 16:16time being.
  391. 16:16>> I understand. Looking at the outlook for
  392. 16:19the energy industry in 2027, what trend
  393. 16:20do you think is the most important?
  394. 16:23Yes.
  395. 16:24Anyway, whether this geopolitical war
  396. 16:28will actually end, so as the Strait of
  397. 16:32Hormuz normalizes, how quickly the LNG
  398. 16:35tankers from Qatar that couldn't reach
  399. 16:39the market or the refineries that
  400. 16:43weren't operating can catch up once they
  401. 16:47restart is one factor.
  402. 16:51And we talk a lot about U.S. shale
  403. 16:53production, which has been increasing
  404. 16:56for nearly 20 years.
  405. 16:59So it's at about 13 million barrels per
  406. 17:02day now, but there are many questions
  407. 17:06arising as to whether this growth trend
  408. 17:09can really continue.
  409. 17:11So ultimately, no matter how much you
  410. 17:14increase productivity, you need to
  411. 17:17discover better shale buried in the
  412. 17:20ground, but most of the high-quality
  413. 17:23shale has already been found, so there
  414. 17:26are concerns that we may have to shift
  415. 17:29toward lower productivity areas.
  416. 17:32And for a while, the supermajors, if by
  417. 17:36supermajors you mean big oil companies,
  418. 17:39instead of increasing investment in the
  419. 17:42upstream, they have been focusing on
  420. 17:45returning their profits to shareholders
  421. 17:48through stock buybacks or dividends.
  422. 17:52>> Since they haven't spent money on
  423. 17:55developing new upstream resources for
  424. 17:57over 10 years,
  425. 17:59>> now,
  426. 18:00>> I think the balance might have shifted,
  427. 18:03and we could be entering a cycle where
  428. 18:05these major companies start investing
  429. 18:08more in the upstream sector; it’ll be
  430. 18:10interesting to keep an eye on.
  431. 18:13>> Yes. Oh, I think this is a very
  432. 18:15important point from an investment
  433. 18:16perspective, specifically when it comes
  434. 18:18to stock market investing.
  435. 18:21Because if these major players, who
  436. 18:23haven't been investing capital but just
  437. 18:25paying out dividends, start investing
  438. 18:27again, I’m sure there will be companies
  439. 18:29that benefit from this.
  440. 18:32Ultimately, they’ll have to award
  441. 18:34contracts for things like drilling, and
  442. 18:36those companies could suddenly see an
  443. 18:39improvement in their business.
  444. 18:41>> Yes. Yes.
  445. 18:43So, in terms of the oil and gas supply
  446. 18:45chain, there are oilfield service
  447. 18:47companies like SLB, which Dr. Cheol Jung
  448. 18:49mentioned last time, or Halliburton.
  449. 18:53There are also countless companies that
  450. 18:56operate drilling rigs and other supply
  451. 18:59chain providers, so if upstream
  452. 19:01investment actually goes up, those
  453. 19:04companies are definitely worth watching
  454. 19:07.
  455. 19:08That makes sense. Understood. But after
  456. 19:10all is said and done, the recent
  457. 19:12interest seems to be in natural gas.
  458. 19:15Nuclear power is too far off, and solar
  459. 19:18power has too much variability, so
  460. 19:20natural gas or perhaps fuel cells seem
  461. 19:23like the best fit for the power needed
  462. 19:26by AI; shall we talk more about natural
  463. 19:29gas?
  464. 19:30>> Exactly. Yes.
  465. 19:32I believe South Korea imports LNG to
  466. 19:37meet about 30%of its power demand.
  467. 19:43And globally, it accounts for about 20%
  468. 19:48to 40%.
  469. 19:50Now, the fuel that would replace it is
  470. 19:54coal.
  471. 19:55In fact, coal still accounts for about
  472. 19:58one-third of global power generation
  473. 20:01resources.
  474. 20:03So it’s still more than gas. Yes.
  475. 20:05>> However, if you switch that to gas,
  476. 20:08while carbon emissions don't reach zero
  477. 20:11, it has the effect of reducing carbon
  478. 20:14emissions by 50-60%like renewable energy
  479. 20:17.
  480. 20:18>> So, while it's not zero, it acts as what
  481. 20:22we call a "bridge," and natural gas can
  482. 20:25play a role in accelerating the
  483. 20:28reduction of carbon emissions.
  484. 20:31Another good thing is that the reserves
  485. 20:34are still massive.
  486. 20:36That’s why the U.S. is not only the top
  487. 20:39producer of crude oil but also the
  488. 20:41largest exporter of LNG.
  489. 20:43Oh, in the entire world.
  490. 20:46And there are still huge shale gas
  491. 20:48reserves, and since the U.S. leads this
  492. 20:52market, there will likely be many more
  493. 20:55new LNG equipment and facility companies
  494. 20:59for some time to come.
  495. 21:01Exactly.
  496. 21:02>> And another important thing is being
  497. 21:05able to keep Russia in check; you see,
  498. 21:08Russia cut off its gas supply while
  499. 21:10waging that war. Europe.
  500. 21:13So they have to burn coal fuel in the
  501. 21:16morning, and they're paying more than
  502. 21:18double the gas price that the U.S. pays
  503. 21:21.
  504. 21:23>> So, I think there would be benefits if
  505. 21:26they source natural gas from the U.S.,
  506. 21:30Qatar, or Australia, which can keep
  507. 21:33Russia in check.
  508. 21:36The U.S.
  509. 21:38>> For the U.S., possessing natural gas is
  510. 21:41a huge strength, and I was surprised to
  511. 21:43read in an article recently that even
  512. 21:46Qatar...
  513. 21:48...
  514. 21:48>> is talking about importing natural gas
  515. 21:51from the U.S. I wondered why a country
  516. 21:53that exports as much natural gas as
  517. 21:56Qatar would do that, but the situation
  518. 21:59in the Middle East, like the Strait of
  519. 22:01Hormuz, is currently very unstable.
  520. 22:04>> Since Qatar has commitments to supply
  521. 22:07gas to outside partners,
  522. 22:09>> they are even importing U.S. gas to
  523. 22:11fulfill those needs.
  524. 22:13>> That’s the kind of situation we're
  525. 22:15seeing.
  526. 22:16So, it really struck me that, regarding
  527. 22:18natural gas alone, the situation is
  528. 22:21quite advantageous for the U.S.
  529. 22:23>> Yes. Yes. Yes.
  530. 22:25As for trade, crude oil producers often
  531. 22:29bypassed the Strait of Hormuz by
  532. 22:31building pipelines across land to the
  533. 22:35south and toward the Red Sea.
  534. 22:38>> But gas can only be transported by LNG
  535. 22:41tanker.
  536. 22:42>> Since it can't go anywhere without a
  537. 22:43pipeline, it must pass through the
  538. 22:45Strait of Hormuz, so they have to use
  539. 22:46tankers.
  540. 22:47>> Yes.
  541. 22:48>> And Qatar still doesn't have enough LNG
  542. 22:50tankers right now. So Qatar...
  543. 22:54...
  544. 22:55>> is either buying LNG tankers that were
  545. 22:57meant to be sold to others as a
  546. 22:59portfolio trade to fill the gap, or they
  547. 23:02are involved in the Golden Pass LNG
  548. 23:05project in the U.S. Through Exxon, they
  549. 23:07are doing that.
  550. 23:10>> Yes, LNG gas has that inherent weakness
  551. 23:13.
  552. 23:14That it has to be moved by LNG tanker. I
  553. 23:16see.
  554. 23:18Looking at what we discussed today, if
  555. 23:20we consider what energy really is, it
  556. 23:23can ultimately be seen as the most
  557. 23:25critical weapon in a hegemonic war.
  558. 23:29I mean, without energy, you can't wage a
  559. 23:31war, and without energy, you can't
  560. 23:33really throw your weight around.
  561. 23:35To put it simply.
  562. 23:37From the perspective of the US-China
  563. 23:40hegemonic war, how does it affect the
  564. 23:42energy industry?
  565. 23:44Big tech leaders in the US, including
  566. 23:47Elon Musk, seem to say things like, "
  567. 23:49China has so much energy, I'm envious."
  568. 23:53How should we view this?
  569. 23:54>> Yes. Yes.
  570. 23:56Well, I view all phenomena through the
  571. 23:59lens of energy.
  572. 24:01When looking at the US and China, the US
  573. 24:04is the world's largest producer of
  574. 24:07fossil fuels, while China is the world's
  575. 24:10largest importer of fossil fuels.
  576. 24:13Of course, China has many resources as
  577. 24:17well.
  578. 24:19However, it still relies heavily on
  579. 24:22imports for oil and gas.
  580. 24:26>> That's why a big reason for the
  581. 24:28Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) during the
  582. 24:31Biden administration a few years ago was
  583. 24:34that China had started to completely
  584. 24:36dominate the supply chain for rare earth
  585. 24:39elements and the components needed for
  586. 24:42EV battery production.
  587. 24:46So, in order to counter that, the US
  588. 24:48felt it needed to build its own EV
  589. 24:49battery and battery supply chains.
  590. 24:52That is indeed one of the major reasons
  591. 24:55why the IRA was initiated.
  592. 24:58Ultimately, it comes down to who will
  593. 25:00take the hegemony in next-generation
  594. 25:02energy and electric vehicles.
  595. 25:05There is a major rivalry between China
  596. 25:08and the US, and if we look at it
  597. 25:11accurately, I think China is currently
  598. 25:15winning decisively.
  599. 25:18Because although the US implemented the
  600. 25:21IRA, there were many hitches, the
  601. 25:24adoption of EVs has actually stalled,
  602. 25:27and people prefer hybrid engines.
  603. 25:31Here.
  604. 25:32>> In China, very fancy EVs are being
  605. 25:35supplied at very low prices, and they
  606. 25:38seem to be far ahead of the US.
  607. 25:43And another important thing is that
  608. 25:47regarding policy support, the US leaves
  609. 25:51it to the market, but in China, the
  610. 25:54government takes the lead and can
  611. 25:57control the market.
  612. 26:00That is the point. In that sense, for
  613. 26:03the energy business, China actually
  614. 26:06lacks resources. Even so, don't you
  615. 26:09think China has various advantages when
  616. 26:12it comes to policies like EVs that
  617. 26:15require the policy and market to work in
  618. 26:18tandem? Ah.
  619. 26:21>> So these days, there are actually far
  620. 26:22more major projects in China for clean
  621. 26:24hydrogen, whether green or blue, than in
  622. 26:26the rest of the world.
  623. 26:28Than the rest of the world. Yes.
  624. 26:30>> I see. Understood.
  625. 26:33Then, since this book is about US
  626. 26:36investment trends in 2027, if I were to
  627. 26:39ask what companies we could invest in
  628. 26:42based on our discussion about energy
  629. 26:45today, could you give us a few ideas?
  630. 26:49Yes. Yes. So, no one can really predict
  631. 26:53oil prices. Wars might or might not
  632. 26:56happen, and demand may rise or fall...
  633. 27:00but as we’ve discussed, energy is the
  634. 27:03foundation of all industries. If you
  635. 27:06hold shares in a supermajor—a large
  636. 27:09company that covers upstream, midstream
  637. 27:12, and downstream—I don't think you’ll be
  638. 27:16heavily affected by the cycles.
  639. 27:19>> I think it could be a good investment.
  640. 27:21So, in this book, we look at Shell, one
  641. 27:24of the supermajors based in the UK. Yes
  642. 27:27.
  643. 27:28>> For a long time, the corporate culture
  644. 27:31was, how should I put it, not very agile
  645. 27:34; decision-making was slow, bloated, and
  646. 27:37overly focused on tech investments.
  647. 27:42People thought they had a tendency to "
  648. 27:45gold-plate" everything and be flashier
  649. 27:48than other companies, but a few years
  650. 27:51ago, Wael Sawan, a Lebanese-Canadian,
  651. 27:53became CEO and completely transformed
  652. 27:56the firm.
  653. 27:58He stopped increasing capital
  654. 28:00expenditure.
  655. 28:03>> He narrowed the portfolio to invest only
  656. 28:06in projects with clear profitability,
  657. 28:09focusing on efficient capital deployment
  658. 28:12, and promised that 40 to 50 percent of
  659. 28:16cash flow would be returned to
  660. 28:18shareholders through buybacks or
  661. 28:21dividends.
  662. 28:24So, I think it has become a good
  663. 28:26investment choice.
  664. 28:30Also, they have gone all-in on natural
  665. 28:32gas; Shell’s portfolio now has more
  666. 28:35natural gas production than oil.
  667. 28:39And when it comes to trading in the LNG
  668. 28:41market, they are second to none. Yes.
  669. 28:43>> Yes. Yes.
  670. 28:45>> So that’s one company, and another one
  671. 28:48is Enbridge, based in Canada.
  672. 28:51>> This company is in the business of gas
  673. 28:54and oil pipelines, what we usually call
  674. 28:56midstream.
  675. 28:58They handle everything, including crude
  676. 29:01oil, natural gas, and power.
  677. 29:05Hmm. And
  678. 29:06>> The LNG business in the U.S. will
  679. 29:07continue to grow and thrive for a while
  680. 29:10.
  681. 29:10Someone has to expand the pipelines or
  682. 29:13build new gas transport lines for the
  683. 29:15LNG business to function.
  684. 29:19Since I see high growth potential for
  685. 29:21the U.S. LNG business, the good thing
  686. 29:24about this midstream sector is that they
  687. 29:27pay high dividends, and while the
  688. 29:30returns aren't as high as upstream, they
  689. 29:33are guaranteed.
  690. 29:35Around 7 or 8%, and these companies
  691. 29:39don't really take on those commodity
  692. 29:43price risks.
  693. 29:44So, these are companies where you can
  694. 29:48get a high-single-digit return of about
  695. 29:517 or 8%.
  696. 29:51>> Stable, yes, exactly. That's right.
  697. 29:54That’s how it happened. I introduced
  698. 29:56Shell and Enbridge in this book.
  699. 29:59>> I see.
  700. 30:01So, you provided ideas on which
  701. 30:03companies to invest in, not just the oil
  702. 30:06major Shell, but also Enbridge, a
  703. 30:09company expected to see steady profits
  704. 30:12and stock appreciation as the natural
  705. 30:15gas industry grows.
  706. 30:18If there is one part of this book you
  707. 30:21think readers must read, could you
  708. 30:23please tell us about it?
  709. 30:26Yes. Yes. Yes. As we discussed with the
  710. 30:29CEO, the chapters outside the main book
  711. 30:32cover the latest topics like AI, and I’d
  712. 30:35like people to know that AI, energy, and
  713. 30:37oil and gas are clearly interconnected.
  714. 30:40I hope readers understand that as we do
  715. 30:45.
  716. 30:47Achieving a balance between net-zero
  717. 30:49carbon emissions and energy supply and
  718. 30:52demand is actually very difficult.
  719. 30:56Regardless of whether one has resources
  720. 30:58or not, it's about pursuing both
  721. 31:00long-term perspectives and long-term
  722. 31:02changes simultaneously.
  723. 31:04And lastly, I would like to suggest
  724. 31:06taking an interest in natural gas.
  725. 31:09Interest in natural gas seems necessary
  726. 31:12now.
  727. 31:13>> Well, in the past, energy might have
  728. 31:16felt like something old-fashioned, but
  729. 31:19it is back in the spotlight because of
  730. 31:21AI, and I found the mention of a
  731. 31:24potential super-major investment cycle
  732. 31:26to be very impressive.
  733. 31:29I would also like to develop some
  734. 31:31investment ideas that might arise from
  735. 31:34that and share them with you all.
  736. 31:37That concludes our time with Dr. Kim
  737. 31:40Sang-won today. We will see you next
  738. 31:43time. Thank you.
  739. 31:45>> Yes. Thanks.

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