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10 most important running back questions in fantasy football with ETR's John Daigle — Transcript

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  1. 0:00breaking down the top 10 questions that
  2. 0:01you should be asking yourself for all
  3. 0:03things running backs ahead of 2026
  4. 0:05fantasy football drafts with the one the
  5. 0:08only established the runs finest John
  6. 0:10Dagel what's up Johnny football doing
  7. 0:13great it's that time of the year where
  8. 0:14all of us are getting tagged in for
  9. 0:17seasonl long discussions tiers I saw you
  10. 0:20forawire also just put out a video of
  11. 0:22your tier running backs I along with you
  12. 0:25are also ready to discuss everything and
  13. 0:27I actually prefer to talk about running
  14. 0:29backs more than wide receivers. Maybe
  15. 0:31because there's less of them. Maybe
  16. 0:32because like there is a skeleton key in
  17. 0:34fantasies football and all it is is
  18. 0:35touches. So, we're just trying to find
  19. 0:37who's going to get touches. So, yeah,
  20. 0:39I'm really excited for this show.
  21. 0:41>> And it seems appropriate, John, because
  22. 0:43again, we're fully moving into home
  23. 0:44league's reddraft season. I get it. But
  24. 0:46a lot of times, baseball, I think, can
  25. 0:48help point us in the right direction of
  26. 0:50topics that are going to become more
  27. 0:51prominent amongst the, you know, more
  28. 0:53casual players as August comes. And this
  29. 0:56has kind of been the year of running
  30. 0:57back, man. We've seen it multiple years
  31. 0:58in a row now. These guys have finally
  32. 1:00stayed healthy. We actually have like 16
  33. 1:02to 20 running backs. You can argue
  34. 1:04project very nicely to have this like
  35. 1:06bellcow role. It seems like everyone's
  36. 1:08finally buying into running backs. I
  37. 1:09just can't help think John that once we
  38. 1:11all kind of buy into something that's
  39. 1:12when the rug pulls out.
  40. 1:14>> Correct. I agree with you and that's why
  41. 1:17I'm a lot more open even after last
  42. 1:19year. I This is not even a humble brag.
  43. 1:22I won multiple championships in in
  44. 1:24charity leagues and like friends
  45. 1:26leagues, industry leagues that you and I
  46. 1:27both play in. But I only say that
  47. 1:29because everyone thought despite the
  48. 1:32increase the past two years in elite
  49. 1:34running back production that you then
  50. 1:36had to jam two heavy running backs to
  51. 1:39start your draft. But that's not the
  52. 1:40case at all. Especially when you get
  53. 1:41into deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.
  54. 1:43There were so many championship teams
  55. 1:45last year I had where I was even
  56. 1:47starting guys like Audrey Esttomay and
  57. 1:49Devin Neil for example. Like you got to
  58. 1:51remember the running backs will come.
  59. 1:52You have to win them off the waiverwire
  60. 1:54or have them stashed, but they will
  61. 1:56happen. Even starting someone like Woody
  62. 1:58Marks and RJ Harvey in the last month
  63. 2:00could have netted you a championship
  64. 2:02because the rest of your team was then
  65. 2:04elite and being extremely efficient,
  66. 2:06especially if you drafted all the 49ers,
  67. 2:08Christian McCaffrey, Brock Perie
  68. 2:10included. So, I think there are multiple
  69. 2:12ways to win fantasy championships. I'm
  70. 2:14not necessarily trying to suddenly think
  71. 2:16zero RB is dead, but we're going to talk
  72. 2:18about some late round guys as we move on
  73. 2:20in the show.
  74. 2:21>> We've seen some weirder running back
  75. 2:22performances over the last few years.
  76. 2:24Amir Abdullah, I think, was the RB8
  77. 2:26during the 2024 fantasy playoffs.
  78. 2:28Bam/Zonovan Knight was a thing there for
  79. 2:30a little bit. Again, it really is that
  80. 2:32one position where just one injury has
  81. 2:34to happen before someone you've never
  82. 2:35even heard of. All of a sudden on the
  83. 2:37cover of those Waverwire articles. By
  84. 2:39the way guys, if you are looking for
  85. 2:40some fantastic Wavewire articles, invite
  86. 2:42you to check out Johnny's work over at
  87. 2:43ETR amongst the rest of their glorious
  88. 2:45crew. You guys really are setting the
  89. 2:47standard and I appreciate you my
  90. 2:48brother. With that, let's get into the
  91. 2:50show. John, with the top of the draft, I
  92. 2:52think everyone's going to be needing to
  93. 2:53ask themselves this question. Jir Gibbs
  94. 2:55versus Ban Robinson. If you're a hipster
  95. 2:58who prefers Jamar Chase, fine, go right
  96. 3:00ahead. But for me, Dagel, these are the
  97. 3:02top two players in fantasy football. I
  98. 3:04have been confidently just going with
  99. 3:05Jamir Gibbs because I think both him and
  100. 3:07Bejian are awesome. I think they project
  101. 3:08for similar volume. I think they're also
  102. 3:10in the prime of their careers. I just
  103. 3:12think the Lions scoring offense is going
  104. 3:14to be much, much, much better than the
  105. 3:16Atlanta Falcons. Is it really that
  106. 3:17simple?
  107. 3:19>> I think it is. And I'm not even saying
  108. 3:21this is what's going to carry over, but
  109. 3:23we do have six career starts without
  110. 3:25David Montgomery for Jir Gibbs, and he's
  111. 3:27averaged an absurd 27.4 PPR points in
  112. 3:31those six starts. Last year it was hit
  113. 3:34or miss to close out the season even
  114. 3:37with David Montgomery injured for Jir
  115. 3:38Gibbs because as we expected the
  116. 3:41offensive line cratered uh a unit that
  117. 3:43they really didn't make any improvements
  118. 3:45and just lost people during last off
  119. 3:47season. They understood that the Lions
  120. 3:49did and this year they improved it both
  121. 3:51in the draft and in free agency. So I
  122. 3:53think it's a significantly better
  123. 3:55situation for the Lions. I expect their
  124. 3:57offense to be humming along again,
  125. 3:59especially with Dan Campbell once again
  126. 4:01calling plays as he did in the second
  127. 4:03half of the year. And so I will have Jir
  128. 4:05Gibbs.
  129. 4:06>> Uh what now?
  130. 4:08>> I think Psoning's calling plays. It'll
  131. 4:10of course be a collaborative effort, but
  132. 4:12>> yeah. Uh because that was really John
  133. 4:13Morton's issue last year. A lot of play
  134. 4:15callers across the league, but John
  135. 4:17Morton literally did not learn a single
  136. 4:19thing and carry over a single thing for
  137. 4:22whatever reason from Ben Johnson. So, I
  138. 4:24would imagine Dan Campbell will not let
  139. 4:26that happen again and will still make
  140. 4:28sure the foot is on the gas at all times
  141. 4:30for this 2026 Lions offense. Having said
  142. 4:32that, Bejon Robinson still a very
  143. 4:34comfortable 102 uh last year improved in
  144. 4:38both yards per carry, touches, target
  145. 4:40share, especially points per game from
  146. 4:42the year prior. And that was including
  147. 4:44being out carried by Tyler Algier inside
  148. 4:47the 5yd line. Algier has since moved on
  149. 4:49to Arizona and maybe Brian Robinson gets
  150. 4:52that role. But really, I think Bjon
  151. 4:54Robinson is a a comfortable 102 given
  152. 4:56the running backs and wide receivers
  153. 4:58that then come back to you if you pick
  154. 5:00in the first two spots.
  155. 5:02>> Both guys capable of catching 80 passes
  156. 5:04and both guys have that one hitter
  157. 5:06quitter or home run speed that we love.
  158. 5:08So the Puket thing has just been the
  159. 5:09only potential red flag. But man, you
  160. 5:11mentioned it. Just seeing last year
  161. 5:13Campbell take over from Wharton and just
  162. 5:14kind of get the offense back to
  163. 5:16grooving, which kind of was just an
  164. 5:17example of him putting more work on Jir
  165. 5:19Gibbs plate in the first place. That
  166. 5:21should give us solace. I think it went
  167. 5:23bad last year. They made a bad OC hire
  168. 5:25and it still didn't really matter. I'm
  169. 5:27with you. I think the offensive line
  170. 5:28issues were far more detrimental than
  171. 5:30anything about Gibbs down the stretch
  172. 5:32last year.
  173. 5:32>> I'm also a petting bull. There aren't
  174. 5:35many of us, I know, but if you remove
  175. 5:37last year when everything fell apart in
  176. 5:39Arizona, which is now a tanking team,
  177. 5:41the Cardinals were second and third in
  178. 5:43team yards per carry the two years
  179. 5:46prior. I think he's actually one of the
  180. 5:48more intuitive run game callers in the
  181. 5:51entire league. And now with a beefed up
  182. 5:53offensive line, I just think it helps
  183. 5:55and makes uh gives Jir Gibbs more
  184. 5:57progressive play calling between the
  185. 5:59tackles.
  186. 6:00>> I've always looked at kind of like team
  187. 6:02running back yards before contact.
  188. 6:03That's one of those things where it can
  189. 6:05kind of give you a decent idea of like
  190. 6:06how good a schemer is and the play
  191. 6:08caller is. And we do regularly see the
  192. 6:10Ravens and the Cardinals, the teams with
  193. 6:11the dual threat quarterbacks of the
  194. 6:13world rank highly in it. But give Ping
  195. 6:15some credit for uh man do that with or
  196. 6:17without Kyler. I get it. These last
  197. 6:19again 2023 and 2024 seasons as you
  198. 6:21brought up. We did see the Cardinals
  199. 6:23actually work as a top eight offense in
  200. 6:25EPA per rush. So I'm with you there.
  201. 6:27Unlike in Petting and also [ __ ] like
  202. 6:29I've tried to just revert to some, you
  203. 6:30know, more real life ball knowers. Not
  204. 6:32that we don't know our ex's and O's, but
  205. 6:34for me, ESPN's Ben Solic, Yahoo's Nate
  206. 6:36Ty, very, very sharp guys who I lean on
  207. 6:38a lot. They both love the Drew Petting
  208. 6:40hire, so who am I to overly disagree
  209. 6:42with that? But again, guys, Jir Gibbs
  210. 6:44versus Bejon. Can't really go wrong. If
  211. 6:46you want to draft Bejan, go for it. Me
  212. 6:48and Johnny though, team Gibbs 101 gets a
  213. 6:51little more interesting after this. All
  214. 6:52right, we got Chase, we got Puka, we got
  215. 6:54JSM, maybe even our one true sun god in
  216. 6:56this next conversation. Next running
  217. 6:58back conversation though is Christian
  218. 6:59McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. So, the
  219. 7:02common adage, John, has been like when
  220. 7:04CMC's healthy, he breaks fantasy
  221. 7:05football. That is true. I'd also argue
  222. 7:08it's pretty much true for Jonathan
  223. 7:09Taylor, man, because we only saw 2021
  224. 7:11when he led the league in rushing and
  225. 7:13then last year where he still averaged,
  226. 7:15I think, north of 20 points per game,
  227. 7:16even with the second half fallout. Those
  228. 7:18are pretty much the only two years he
  229. 7:20hasn't had some annoying early season
  230. 7:21injury. He had to eventually work his
  231. 7:22way back through. So, CMC, JT, pretty
  232. 7:25much the consensus. RB3 and RB4. Any
  233. 7:28good reason not to take them in round
  234. 7:29one? In round one, it's fine. But where
  235. 7:33are they going round one? I'm personally
  236. 7:35skeptical. And I can sit here saying
  237. 7:38this now. Even though I believe you and
  238. 7:40I did a show together last year, and I
  239. 7:42was skeptical of Saquon Barkley at that
  240. 7:44time, too. I took Bjon Robinson and I
  241. 7:47made my entire personality around
  242. 7:49Christian McCaffrey from 110 on over
  243. 7:51Saquon Barkley last year, and I'm using
  244. 7:53the same argument for Christian McAffrey
  245. 7:55this season and why I'm worried about
  246. 7:57him. Uh his 450 touches were the 10th
  247. 7:59most of the 21st century last year. And
  248. 8:02there were only 38 times that a running
  249. 8:03back handled 350 plus including the
  250. 8:06playoffs since 2014. So over the last 12
  251. 8:08years and only six of those running
  252. 8:10backs, 15.7% improved in points per game
  253. 8:13the following season. That includes
  254. 8:14Saquon Barkley last year who handled 480
  255. 8:17plus touches in 2024. Then last year
  256. 8:20lost 7.7 points per game as the RB15
  257. 8:24that you drafted in the first round. Not
  258. 8:26great. I'm not saying McAffrey is going
  259. 8:28to reach that point, but it's at least
  260. 8:31nitpicking enough in the first round
  261. 8:32where I do want other players over him,
  262. 8:35including Justin Jefferson, who we're
  263. 8:37not going to talk about on today's show,
  264. 8:38but I just think there are better
  265. 8:39situations for me to draft in. Same
  266. 8:41thing goes for Jonathan Taylor, who I'm
  267. 8:43worried about. Through week eight,
  268. 8:45everyone recalls with Daniel Jones
  269. 8:46healthy. The Colts were first in EPA per
  270. 8:48play. Jonathan Taylor in that time was
  271. 8:50the overall RB1 ahead of McAffrey with
  272. 8:5227 PPR points per game. In the second
  273. 8:55half of the season though, Daniel Jones
  274. 8:57is injured. The Colts fall to 21st in
  275. 8:59EPA per play. Jonathan Taylor falls to
  276. 9:01RB9, averaging 11 fewer points per game
  277. 9:04than that first half of the season. So,
  278. 9:06my point is when you when you zoom out
  279. 9:08and ask which Daniel Jones and Colts
  280. 9:11offense are we going to see, given
  281. 9:13Daniel Jones's career, most likely it's
  282. 9:16not the one that's the most efficient
  283. 9:17offense in the entire league. It's
  284. 9:19somewhere a median between that first
  285. 9:21and second half. And if that's the case,
  286. 9:23I am a little bit worried about Jonathan
  287. 9:24Taylor given that throughout his career,
  288. 9:26he has yet to put together a double-
  289. 9:27digit target share in every season. And
  290. 9:30that's how you spike an overall RB1
  291. 9:32finish. So, in baseball, we're talking
  292. 9:34portfolios and many teams. I'm going to
  293. 9:37naturally sprinkle in those individuals.
  294. 9:39Sure. But if anyone's watching cuz
  295. 9:40they're a home league drafter, just your
  296. 9:42recreational better and more fun fantasy
  297. 9:45football drafter, they probably care
  298. 9:47about one to three leagues. And like in
  299. 9:49my quote unquote one to three home
  300. 9:51leagues, I'm not taking Christian
  301. 9:53McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. And
  302. 9:54that's just me.
  303. 9:55>> I tend to agree with you, but it scares
  304. 9:57the [ __ ] out of me, John.
  305. 9:59>> Oh, yeah.
  306. 9:59>> You could just be looking at it again.
  307. 10:01And I I kind of did a similar study you
  308. 10:02did and had one of the same takeaways,
  309. 10:05too, where like the yards per carry fell
  310. 10:06off quite a bit. That's kind of been the
  311. 10:08case for CMC for quite some time. Like
  312. 10:09all the rushing efficiency metrics that
  313. 10:11we, you know, fantasy alleged experts
  314. 10:13care about, they tell you that CMC was a
  315. 10:14bad rusher last year. it just doesn't
  316. 10:17matter when you're legit a wide receiver
  317. 10:19one that happens to be playing running
  318. 10:20back. So that'd be my only, you know,
  319. 10:22potential push back with CMC. It feels
  320. 10:24like we're just saying like, well, look
  321. 10:26at the history. I get it, but the
  322. 10:28history isn't literally running backs
  323. 10:30catching 100 passes like CMC.
  324. 10:32>> I completely agree with you. I just
  325. 10:34think the argument is a lot like George
  326. 10:36Pickins this year and that I understand
  327. 10:38if you missed the boat because you were
  328. 10:40scared last season with Christian
  329. 10:41McCaffrey pickings, but now you're just
  330. 10:43chasing them at the prices that we kind
  331. 10:46of figured they'd end up in. And I don't
  332. 10:48like chasing last year's points because
  333. 10:50we don't get last year's points. And if
  334. 10:52you do, please call me. I want to join
  335. 10:53your league. [laughter]
  336. 10:55>> That would be quite handy. So, last
  337. 10:56thing on JT, which is why I would still
  338. 10:58keep him RB4, even though I'm with you.
  339. 11:00I've been clicking on Monro St. Brown
  340. 11:02and even Justin Jefferson often over
  341. 11:04him. Last year, you look at teams that
  342. 11:06actually left one running back on the
  343. 11:07field for at least 90% of their snaps.
  344. 11:09Very, very rare in today's NFL. Only the
  345. 11:1149ers, the Colts, and the Raiders
  346. 11:13actually, shout out Ashton Genty, did
  347. 11:14that for at least a quarter of their
  348. 11:16games. So, that would be my one argument
  349. 11:18in favor of Jonathan Taylor. It's that
  350. 11:20he's not really this guy who doesn't
  351. 11:21catch passes anymore. He pretty much had
  352. 11:22career-high fantasy numbers from
  353. 11:24receiving last year. We don't have a
  354. 11:25Naim Heind to really be worrying about
  355. 11:27these days. So, could that change with
  356. 11:28Giddens or McCullen or one of these
  357. 11:30other guys? I guess. But I do think like
  358. 11:32I've heard the wide draft Jonathan
  359. 11:34Taylor when Dererick Henry is there
  360. 11:35around later. And Henry's, we'll talk
  361. 11:37about him in a minute. He's perfectly
  362. 11:38fine. But JT, I think his newfound pass
  363. 11:40game floor a little bit maybe
  364. 11:42underestimated.
  365. 11:44I understand the argument and again I'm
  366. 11:46going to sprinkle these guys in, but
  367. 11:48Jonathan Taylor is one that most likely
  368. 11:52I won't have a lot of given his ADP and
  369. 11:54the fact as we move along here, uh, the
  370. 11:57next tier of running backs, I like a
  371. 11:59couple guys quite a bit over JT and
  372. 12:01Christian McCaffrey.
  373. 12:03>> How do you like my name, John? RB5
  374. 12:05through RB12 right now. And I'm just
  375. 12:07using baseball because I do think that
  376. 12:08ADP will generally be how we shift
  377. 12:10things in home league. But from picks 11
  378. 12:12through 18, again, we have freaking
  379. 12:15eight different running backs going. The
  380. 12:17Great Wall of RBs, John, that's what
  381. 12:19we're going with. [snorts]
  382. 12:20>> It's very catchy.
  383. 12:22>> Thank you. Out of those RBs, John,
  384. 12:24again, we have Ashen Genty, James Cook,
  385. 12:25Saquon Barkley, Omaran Hampton, Kenneth
  386. 12:27Walker, Chase Brown, Deonte Chan, and
  387. 12:29Dererick Henry. Again, this is what you
  388. 12:30guys are going to be seeing in drafts,
  389. 12:32end of round one into the mid part of
  390. 12:33round two. Which one of these guys do
  391. 12:35you want on your team the most, and
  392. 12:36which one scares you the most?
  393. 12:38>> I'm going to take Ashton Genty over
  394. 12:40Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor.
  395. 12:42Uh, I think he's in for a massive year.
  396. 12:45Last year, of course, was blaming solely
  397. 12:48the offensive line and play calling,
  398. 12:51quarterback play as well. We're just
  399. 12:53changing everything up for Genty this
  400. 12:55season and having the number one overall
  401. 12:57pick at quarterback, a offensive
  402. 12:59coordinator or play caller head coach I
  403. 13:01should say in Clint Kubak that just
  404. 13:02allowed Sam Darnold to have a careerhigh
  405. 13:05and yards per attempt and vastly
  406. 13:07improved offensive line including the
  407. 13:09one of the best centers in the entire
  408. 13:10league Ty Linder bomb now really calling
  409. 13:12the shots from the center of their
  410. 13:14trenches. Not only that, but the Raiders
  411. 13:16last year were one of only 12 teams in
  412. 13:19the last decade to score 80% of their
  413. 13:21touchdowns through the air.
  414. 13:22Unsurprisingly, that's a high number.
  415. 13:24So, no, none of those 12 teams have been
  416. 13:26able to duplicate that number the
  417. 13:29following year. Thus, we're kind of
  418. 13:30expecting more rushing touchdowns. And I
  419. 13:33looked at where running backs were both
  420. 13:36drafted and then finished in PPR leagues
  421. 13:39on Twitter, by the way, not Jay Dagel,
  422. 13:41uh, for those follow-up seasons. And
  423. 13:44there are a handful of minor hits and
  424. 13:47misses, but like if you draft the RB14,
  425. 13:50let's say, and he finishes the RB30,
  426. 13:52that seems detrimental. You can get by
  427. 13:54with that. That doesn't win or lose your
  428. 13:57league and vice versa. But there were
  429. 13:59massive hits for those running backs in
  430. 14:02the following years. Uh Orleans Darkwis,
  431. 14:05if you recall, for the Giants in 2017,
  432. 14:07was undrafted. He finishes the RB 40 in
  433. 14:09points per game. James Robinson in 2020,
  434. 14:12I believe it was, was the RB67 drafted.
  435. 14:15He finishes the RB7 in points per game.
  436. 14:18So, Ashton Genty is being drafted, as
  437. 14:19you said, at the end of the first round,
  438. 14:21the RB5. There's not many more hills for
  439. 14:23him to climb to be any higher, but I do
  440. 14:26think there's the outs for him to
  441. 14:28outscore Christian McCaffrey this
  442. 14:30season. So, that's a player that I'm
  443. 14:32focusing highly on at the first second
  444. 14:34round term. The other one John the the
  445. 14:38big issue here would just be do we think
  446. 14:40the offense is going to be that much
  447. 14:42better improved? Sure. All right. They
  448. 14:43don't have much room to go but up. I
  449. 14:45like Clint Kubak too. You mentioned
  450. 14:46Linderbomb. Quarterback situation should
  451. 14:48be better. Again, not a high bar. I do
  452. 14:50like leaning though because this is
  453. 14:51July. We're all optimistic about
  454. 14:53everyone. It's the fun thing to do
  455. 14:54during the summer months. I like leaning
  456. 14:56on the Vegas implied team scoring ranks
  457. 14:58at this point and seeing what the, you
  458. 14:59know, people in Sin City think about it.
  459. 15:01Raiders offense 28th right now in again
  460. 15:04implied scoring rank. I went ahead and I
  461. 15:06did look in the past at how correlated
  462. 15:08our high-end fantasy running backs with
  463. 15:10their team scoring rank and it is pretty
  464. 15:12strong man. Only quarterbacks actually
  465. 15:14in fact had a stronger kind of R
  466. 15:15coefficient when looking at that thing.
  467. 15:17That said, the two the I should say the
  468. 15:20biggest variable that helped running
  469. 15:22backs and bad scoring offenses still be
  470. 15:23great in fantasy land, it was that pass
  471. 15:25catching upside. Man, I think the
  472. 15:27average of like the 14 running backs who
  473. 15:28have pulled this off. Average at least
  474. 15:3050 catches. The medium was about the
  475. 15:32same thing. And it was like 12 of the
  476. 15:33last 13 caught at least 40 balls.
  477. 15:35Derrick County was the only one that
  478. 15:37didn't do that. So that would be my
  479. 15:39alert for like Ashen Genty. Are you conf
  480. 15:40that he's actually going to have a high
  481. 15:42target share in Las Vegas because again
  482. 15:44that seems to be the cheat code in fancy
  483. 15:46land getting that full point per
  484. 15:47reception for our running backs. If
  485. 15:49you're catching 60 70 passes, man, it is
  486. 15:51awfully hard to bust even if you're in a
  487. 15:53bad offense. I am fairly confident
  488. 15:55especially because why it took until
  489. 15:57they started healthy scratching Raheem
  490. 15:59Moster I'll never know but from that
  491. 16:01point forward in the second half of the
  492. 16:02year that's when Genty had a double-
  493. 16:03digit target share and in terms of elus
  494. 16:06breaking tackles again it he was
  495. 16:08actually at a a terrific rate it's just
  496. 16:10that he was getting crushed behind the
  497. 16:12line of scrimmage at a league high rate
  498. 16:14because his offensive line last season
  499. 16:16was terrible
  500. 16:17>> they were they were so RB5 Ashen Denty
  501. 16:20is going to be John's click among the
  502. 16:21group who scares you
  503. 16:24You talk about fading Christian
  504. 16:25McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. Uh the
  505. 16:27one I'm scared about who I'm going to
  506. 16:29have zero of in the second round is my
  507. 16:32boy Aggie great Devon Achan who
  508. 16:34benefited the last couple years with the
  509. 16:36second high third highest target shares
  510. 16:38in his position because of the
  511. 16:40deficiencies of Tua Tonga a statue
  512. 16:43quarterback. Now we're taking out Tua
  513. 16:45and adding a rushing quarterback and
  514. 16:47Malik Willis. We're taking away Mike
  515. 16:49McDaniel who then understands how to
  516. 16:52change the players and get the best out
  517. 16:54of them in his offense. And that's why I
  518. 16:56assume Achan had such a high target
  519. 16:58share. But then we're also adding an
  520. 16:59entirely different head coach and
  521. 17:01offensive coordinator and Bobby Sloic as
  522. 17:03well. I'm just not sure this target
  523. 17:05share and thus the ceiling carries over
  524. 17:07for Achan, especially with a rushing
  525. 17:10quarterback taking away carries
  526. 17:12logically. So, Achan is the player in
  527. 17:14the significantly worse situation that
  528. 17:16unfortunately I won't have any of.
  529. 17:19>> And it's just one of those things, man,
  530. 17:20where I know what we just talked about,
  531. 17:22all right, bad offenses. We can still
  532. 17:23have running backs overcome that by
  533. 17:25being gifted pass catchers, which A Chan
  534. 17:27is, but man, we're taking a big leap of
  535. 17:30faith to assume Bobby Slo's going to
  536. 17:31keep Achan anywhere near as involved as
  537. 17:33McDaniel was. I'm with you on the two
  538. 17:35and Malik Malik Willis difference as
  539. 17:36well. Malik Willis over these last two
  540. 17:38seasons, single highest scramble rate in
  541. 17:40the league in terms of how many times
  542. 17:42he's taken off per drop back. You guys
  543. 17:44have watched two a play. All right, he's
  544. 17:45bottom five, but you just know again
  545. 17:47from watching this dude that he's
  546. 17:48nowhere even close to that. So, that's
  547. 17:50the issue, man. Because I've seen also
  548. 17:51the push back. We're like, well, dual
  549. 17:53threat quarterbacks help their teams run
  550. 17:54game efficiency. And that's true. The
  551. 17:55grab and read option game. We've seen
  552. 17:57guys like Mike Vic, Tyrod Taylor over
  553. 17:59the years, like running backs have more
  554. 18:01yards per carry with them than without
  555. 18:02them. But Dgo, like an extra point4
  556. 18:05yards per carry doesn't make up for all
  557. 18:07the loss and target share, and it
  558. 18:08especially doesn't make up for these
  559. 18:10quarterbacks factoring into the rushing
  560. 18:11touchdown equation once we get to the
  561. 18:13goal line.
  562. 18:14>> And I also want to give a shout out to
  563. 18:16Saquon Barkley, who I I believe his ADP
  564. 18:18should be flipped with Jonathan Taylor
  565. 18:20this year. You just have to ignore
  566. 18:22literally everything the Eagles did with
  567. 18:24Kevin Patulo last season. Uh, we're
  568. 18:26getting Shawn Manion now, who does come
  569. 18:28from Shawn McY and the Rams, but more
  570. 18:30importantly, at least in camp, seems
  571. 18:32very much open-minded to a far more
  572. 18:34progressive offense, not limiting the
  573. 18:37Eagles and their most talented players.
  574. 18:39Uh, you've, like myself, have written
  575. 18:42about the Vikings and Eagles, and it's
  576. 18:43funny because when you do that, all
  577. 18:45you're saying the entire time is career
  578. 18:47worst mark, career low number. Uh,
  579. 18:49that's what it is for like the Eagles
  580. 18:51and the Vikings across the board. And
  581. 18:52both situations have improved
  582. 18:54dramatically in 2026. So Saquon Barkley
  583. 18:57is also a player who I did not draft
  584. 18:58last year, but it's a new season and I
  585. 19:01think it's going to we're going to get
  586. 19:02not necessarily the 2024 numbers, but a
  587. 19:05top three top four running back finish
  588. 19:07is very plausible.
  589. 19:08>> Now Saquon is the guy I am highlighting
  590. 19:10over this, but again, a lot of good
  591. 19:11points with Genty. I certainly don't
  592. 19:12want to be missing the boat on him as
  593. 19:14well. It is funny with some of these
  594. 19:16offenses like Washington and obviously
  595. 19:18Philly and I'm forgetting uh the other
  596. 19:20one, but uh oh, Baltimore with Declan
  597. 19:22Doyle. These first-time play callers,
  598. 19:24it's all going to be great, John.
  599. 19:25They're going to be under center.
  600. 19:26They're going to use play action.
  601. 19:27They're going to use motion. It's all
  602. 19:28going to work out and just be fantastic
  603. 19:30for everyone involved. But in Philly's
  604. 19:32case, that is the one situation where
  605. 19:34I'm like, good God, is that Barlo. This
  606. 19:36guy has to be better.
  607. 19:38>> Has to be. And that's kind of one of the
  608. 19:39lessons as every year, you know, we do
  609. 19:41this a little bit longer. Now, it's been
  610. 19:43too long, frankly. But we we learn a
  611. 19:46little bit more every season and see
  612. 19:47where we went wrong. And I've said this
  613. 19:49on shows before, where I went the most
  614. 19:51wrong last year was trusting that the
  615. 19:55play callers uh who took over were just
  616. 19:57going to take what was right the year
  617. 20:00prior. Again, John Morton did not from
  618. 20:02Ben Johnson. Kevin Patulo did not from
  619. 20:05Kell Moore. And that happened across the
  620. 20:07league. Nick Kaye too for the Texans.
  621. 20:09And so just because you get a a
  622. 20:11coordinator change doesn't mean it's
  623. 20:12going to be different. But at least for
  624. 20:14the Eagles, it can't be as bad. Like
  625. 20:17even league average would be
  626. 20:18significantly better for these Eagles
  627. 20:20players and their ADP. So I'm just
  628. 20:22trusting Manny in this situation.
  629. 20:25>> I was hoping that Tanner Angstrand like
  630. 20:26you know would have stolen Ben Johnson's
  631. 20:28playbook kind of like the water boy
  632. 20:30coach back in the day who you know got
  633. 20:31got but unfortunately that wasn't meant
  634. 20:33to be either. So please please new
  635. 20:36coaches just just help our guys and
  636. 20:38fans. That's all we're asking. Next
  637. 20:39stretch of running backs John we got
  638. 20:41dogs and probably bad offenses. Right.
  639. 20:43Jeremiah Love, Bree Hall, Travis ETN,
  640. 20:45lesser extent in those two guys, but
  641. 20:47still also got kind of boring veterans
  642. 20:49and great offenses. Kyron Williams,
  643. 20:50Jamonte Williams, Josh Jacobs. Still
  644. 20:52guys who, you know, we shouldn't be
  645. 20:54surprised if they finish as RB1s, but
  646. 20:55obviously a reason why we don't
  647. 20:56necessarily have them ranked that way.
  648. 20:58What has been your general round three
  649. 21:00strategy around these guys? And do you
  650. 21:01have a strong take on anyone involved?
  651. 21:04>> I do believe the dead zone really starts
  652. 21:06around Kyron Williams and Breece Hall.
  653. 21:08Perhaps they they bounce back and ruin
  654. 21:11me because of that. But if you look at
  655. 21:13historically, Shawn McY has leaned on
  656. 21:16one running back. And for the first time
  657. 21:18ever last season, that did not happen.
  658. 21:21Before the Rams buy, Kavern Williams
  659. 21:23averaged 18.2 touches per game.
  660. 21:25Afterwards, just 16.9. The actual share
  661. 21:28of touches dropped from 74% to 60%. A
  662. 21:31massive drop. And that benefited Blake
  663. 21:33Corm, who was the more explosive player
  664. 21:36in the second half. Cororm actually led
  665. 21:37all running backs in success rate last
  666. 21:39year and finished up second only to
  667. 21:41Achan in his rate of 10 yard carries. So
  668. 21:44I am out on a Kairen Williams committee.
  669. 21:46But before that I do love two players in
  670. 21:49particular. Uh let's wait and see I
  671. 21:51should say on Jeremiah loves ADP because
  672. 21:55I'm interested. I understand the
  673. 21:56Cardinals have the league's toughest
  674. 21:57schedule. They're really rebuilding and
  675. 22:00it's plausible that no one in that
  676. 22:02organization is there after this year.
  677. 22:04That's how really bad this situation is
  678. 22:06for Arizona. But I like to take a a big
  679. 22:09picture look at everything. And Ryan
  680. 22:11Heath, who's doing tremendous work at
  681. 22:13fantasy points, I'm sure he'll be on
  682. 22:14this show with you at some point. Uh he
  683. 22:16had mentioned that, you know, for speed
  684. 22:18score when we're looking at how these
  685. 22:20players have fared in terms of their
  686. 22:21size and 40 time. Jeremiah Love, uh just
  687. 22:25like Jir Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and
  688. 22:28Travis ETN, those were the last first
  689. 22:30round running backs with a speed score
  690. 22:32of 110 plus. Jeremiah Love fits that
  691. 22:34mold, fits into that bucket. And so
  692. 22:36[snorts] even though Jir Gibbs' rookie
  693. 22:38year was the RB8 in per game points in a
  694. 22:40committee with David Montgomery, Bjan
  695. 22:42Robinson was the RB 17 in points per
  696. 22:44game in a committee with Tyler Algier.
  697. 22:46Although these players still started
  698. 22:47slow, ended strong and when they were
  699. 22:49isolated from injuries around their
  700. 22:51committee were amazing. That maybe could
  701. 22:53be the case for Love this year with
  702. 22:55Tyler Algier. I still think he's just
  703. 22:57put in the same breath as those guys and
  704. 22:59could eventually emerge um as a top 12
  705. 23:02running back. So, I'll I'll take a
  706. 23:04chance and swing on that ceiling in the
  707. 23:05third round. And then I I think another
  708. 23:08great one who's going to go behind Kyron
  709. 23:10Williams and Brie Hall is Travis ETN.
  710. 23:13The Saints are the opposite of the
  711. 23:15Cardinals this year and that they're
  712. 23:16projected to face Warren Sharp's second
  713. 23:18easiest schedule and ETN as we know is
  714. 23:21at the very minimum a workhorse. He's
  715. 23:24had 290 touches in two of his last three
  716. 23:26years. And the Saints offense last year
  717. 23:28finished 29th in yards per carry. Now
  718. 23:30you're getting, although volatile, an
  719. 23:32explosive running back in Travis ETN,
  720. 23:34who can sporadically make everyone
  721. 23:36better. So, I like ETN a lot in that
  722. 23:38Kell Moore offense that last year was
  723. 23:40first in plays per game.
  724. 23:42>> What's the argument for ETN over
  725. 23:44Javvante? Because is ETN maybe a little
  726. 23:46bit better in real life? Sure, I'll give
  727. 23:48you that. But I don't need any guesswork
  728. 23:51to conclude the Cowboys offense is going
  729. 23:52to be a freaking wagon this year. I am a
  730. 23:54little bit more more worried about the
  731. 23:55Saints version.
  732. 23:57>> I am a little bit concerned that the
  733. 23:59Cowboys offense could be different. Like
  734. 24:00we're all copying and pasting their
  735. 24:02their passing numbers from last year.
  736. 24:04And Dak has always been one of the best
  737. 24:05quarterbacks in the league. Uh most
  738. 24:07efficient one of the most efficient
  739. 24:08passers I should say whenever everyone's
  740. 24:10been healthy. That's really been a
  741. 24:12struggle. But the defense is not going
  742. 24:15to be the same as last year. like all
  743. 24:16the the dogs they added, especially if
  744. 24:19you look at their splits whenever they
  745. 24:21traded for Quinn and Williams, they
  746. 24:22quietly became
  747. 24:24>> they they quietly became one of the best
  748. 24:25run defense in the entire league and
  749. 24:27then teams just started throwing on
  750. 24:29them. But now we're adding Caleb DS and
  751. 24:31other players who I think are going to
  752. 24:33make a significant impact for Christian
  753. 24:35Parker or new defensive coordinator
  754. 24:36there. So, I I am curious if the Cowboys
  755. 24:39can actually carry over that ceiling and
  756. 24:42maybe they're just a better team this
  757. 24:43year that is not as good for fantasy.
  758. 24:46>> Any concern about Alvin Chimera? Seems
  759. 24:48like he wants to play football this
  760. 24:49year.
  761. 24:50>> Do the Saints want to play football this
  762. 24:52year? That's my concern.
  763. 24:53>> I know, man. I just if I hear you. If
  764. 24:57ETN, if we don't have the Chimera
  765. 24:59factor, if they decide, hey, you know
  766. 25:00what? I would like to go play with my
  767. 25:02old friend Shawn Peyton. or if the
  768. 25:03Saints just say, "You know what? We
  769. 25:05appreciate everything you've done. See
  770. 25:06you. Best of luck with everything and
  771. 25:08they cut him." Okay. I just feel like
  772. 25:09they already would have done it by now.
  773. 25:11I totally get shooting ETN the top of
  774. 25:13this kind of tier of players if he is
  775. 25:15going to be just the only running back
  776. 25:16involved. But I'm just worried that
  777. 25:18Chimera is still there. We get to week
  778. 25:19one and it's like way closer to a 6040
  779. 25:22split than he was anticipating.
  780. 25:24>> Completely fair. I've actually just
  781. 25:27washed Kamara out of my mind because I
  782. 25:30genuinely don't think he's on the roster
  783. 25:33uh in week one, but I could very well be
  784. 25:35wrong.
  785. 25:36>> You should not look at my underdog
  786. 25:37exposure, Johnny. We are playing some
  787. 25:38risky
  788. 25:39>> I've heard about Jerry Judy. Don't
  789. 25:40worry.
  790. 25:41>> Oh my god. Yeah, don't even get
  791. 25:42[laughter] me going with that one. So,
  792. 25:44Jeremiah is an interesting one though
  793. 25:45because again once we're starting like
  794. 25:48earlier in the offseason, I feel like he
  795. 25:49was being pitch and hold as this like
  796. 25:50round two pick and I definitely wasn't
  797. 25:52doing that. But more and more as we get
  798. 25:53in to round three, you know, Josh
  799. 25:55Allen's off the board. we already have,
  800. 25:57you know, the tight ends we really like
  801. 25:59or we're just kind of waiting for round
  802. 26:00four for Coulson Lovelin anyway. Like
  803. 26:02there is a point where we're starting to
  804. 26:04get in these wide receivers where it's
  805. 26:05like yeah maybe it is going to be the
  806. 26:07lab makoni or maybe it is going to be a
  807. 26:09mecha IA or Jaylen Wald or one of these
  808. 26:11guys or maybe we just take the number
  809. 26:13three overall pick who we know is
  810. 26:14explosive who we know can catch the
  811. 26:16football and yeah he's not in a great
  812. 26:17offense but man if that Cardinals
  813. 26:20offense is just average below average
  814. 26:23instead of dog [ __ ] John like we're
  815. 26:25going to be like why didn't we just
  816. 26:26draft the freaking baller in round three
  817. 26:27and worry about the rest later. And I
  818. 26:30think that's what Jeremiah Love and
  819. 26:32Travis ETN allow me to do because I
  820. 26:34really want to make all of my drafts
  821. 26:36about winning that third tier of wide
  822. 26:40receivers. Zay Flowers, Lad McConi,
  823. 26:42Amecha Ibuka, Terry McLaren, Luther
  824. 26:44Burden, Mike Evans, all those guys are
  825. 26:47going to compete to be top 12 wide
  826. 26:49receivers, not being drafted as top 12
  827. 26:51wide receivers. And I want to hammer
  828. 26:54that tier, four to six of them. And so
  829. 26:57what running backs can I take that still
  830. 26:59allow me to carry out that draft plan?
  831. 27:02And I think ETN and Love still
  832. 27:04potentially do that. That's also though
  833. 27:06why I'll probably jam Ashton Jenjenty
  834. 27:08and Saquon Barkley up my home league
  835. 27:10boards and then pick apart the wide
  836. 27:12receivers in rounds three through eight.
  837. 27:15And we'll talk a little more overall
  838. 27:16strategy here at the end too. But that
  839. 27:18is kind of John where I don't even feel
  840. 27:20the need to go with the double click
  841. 27:22necessarily. But hero RB in particular
  842. 27:25if you will call superhero where you get
  843. 27:26two running backs early. I'm more so
  844. 27:28than just hero RB. Give me the Bejon.
  845. 27:30Give me Gibbs or something. I'll figure
  846. 27:32out the RB2 later when I got probably a
  847. 27:34sick tight end and then four or five of
  848. 27:35those wide receivers you mentioned.
  849. 27:37>> And again, Bejon and Gibbs, you have to
  850. 27:39be one of your first two picks. By the
  851. 27:41way, uh I I was thinking about this last
  852. 27:43night. I clearly was under the
  853. 27:45influence. Uh, we are just one month
  854. 27:48away from pretty much guaranteeing
  855. 27:51someone in our league takes Brian
  856. 27:52Robinson over Bejian Robinson. And I
  857. 27:54absolutely cannot wait because you
  858. 27:57should not allow them to take that
  859. 27:59sticker off the board. They should keep
  860. 28:01Brian Robinson at the 102 whenever they
  861. 28:03inevitably draft him.
  862. 28:05>> If that sticker hits the board, it's
  863. 28:06done. I don't care if you messed up.
  864. 28:08>> Exactly. We've already made that rule in
  865. 28:10my league, by the way. Once that
  866. 28:11happens, because it's going to happen,
  867. 28:13it's you. It's all you from there. I
  868. 28:15absolutely love it. I actually went into
  869. 28:17an ESPN auction mockdraft lobby in like
  870. 28:20the middle of June on a Tuesday. I think
  871. 28:22there was four of us in there and I
  872. 28:23nominated Brian Robinson for 50 bucks
  873. 28:25hoping that someone would just not catch
  874. 28:28it. I got Brian Robbins for 50 bucks,
  875. 28:30John. Apparently the uh ESPN auction
  876. 28:32mockdraft lobbies are a little bit
  877. 28:34sharper uh than I gave him credit for.
  878. 28:36So, shout out to those guys. All right,
  879. 28:38we've kind of gone through basically
  880. 28:39like the top 18 19 or so running backs
  881. 28:43at this point. actually had a video go
  882. 28:44up on this channel with my guy Jagger
  883. 28:46May breaking down zero RB strategy. And
  884. 28:49this was kind of like the part that we
  885. 28:51just said, okay, we've gotten past Kyro
  886. 28:53Morris, we gotten past Josh Jacobs, like
  887. 28:55RB20 on is about what you should expect
  888. 28:57to be taking running backs round four,
  889. 28:59round five and beyond. These are kind of
  890. 29:00like our zero RB heroes or at least we
  891. 29:02would like to think. Again, with this
  892. 29:04range, we have a mix of players. We got
  893. 29:05the horrible 2025 injury. Now they
  894. 29:08should be go should be ready to go in
  895. 29:09week one. How healthy Cam Scaboo, Quinn
  896. 29:12Sean Judkins. We got other guys where
  897. 29:13it's like, yeah, there are going to be
  898. 29:15touches for him and decent offenses, but
  899. 29:16what's a split going to look like?
  900. 29:18DeAndre Swift, Trayvon Henderson, Bucky
  901. 29:19Irving, Bashaw 2, Ninja Darian Price.
  902. 29:22And then we have the potential dead zone
  903. 29:23vibes, lack of pass down roll, how
  904. 29:25good's the offense going to be? Dave
  905. 29:26Montgomery has been getting a lot of
  906. 29:28flack for that. Actively clicking or
  907. 29:30fading any of these guys? Like, was
  908. 29:32there a name or two that really piqu
  909. 29:33your interest there?
  910. 29:35Yeah, when I talk about the running back
  911. 29:36dead zone, I I come back always though,
  912. 29:41assuming I'm still not hammering wide
  913. 29:43receivers in this spot. I come back for
  914. 29:46two players. One is none other than
  915. 29:49boring David Montgomery. The changes the
  916. 29:52Texans had this off season emphasized
  917. 29:55David Montgomery strengths. Whether it's
  918. 29:57Ed Ingram, who they signed for 37
  919. 29:59million, I believe it was. They brought
  920. 30:01back Trent Brown at tackle, drafted
  921. 30:03Caleb Ruten in the first round. Those
  922. 30:05three guys adding to their offensive
  923. 30:07line, they all rank elite at Pro
  924. 30:09Football Focus in gap blocking schemes
  925. 30:13rather than man blocking. And Dave
  926. 30:15Montgomery's yards per carry, 5.7 in gap
  927. 30:19blocking last year per FTN Fantasy. It's
  928. 30:22a terrific situation. If you're curious
  929. 30:24how they're going to use him, just
  930. 30:25recall a couple years ago they traded a
  931. 30:27seventh round pick for Joe Mixon. Gave
  932. 30:29him 20 touches per game as fantasy's
  933. 30:31RB9. They gave a fourth and seventh for
  934. 30:34David Montgomery. They are going to use
  935. 30:36him until he cannot be used anymore. So,
  936. 30:38I think he's just a boring we're going
  937. 30:40to beat you down and win games RB2 that
  938. 30:43I'm definitely interested in. Also,
  939. 30:46I thought I was going to be fading this
  940. 30:48individual, but ADP didn't catch up to
  941. 30:51really the run out that Bashel Tutin has
  942. 30:53had all off season where they haven't
  943. 30:55been interested really in adding anyone.
  944. 30:57I understand Chris Rodriguez, Liam
  945. 30:58Cohen's boy from college is there, but
  946. 31:00also Bashel Tutin is volatile enough in
  947. 31:03being an explosive player who perhaps
  948. 31:06doesn't pan out. You have to remember in
  949. 31:09baseball you mix in Chris Rodriguez,
  950. 31:10that's fine. But in season long leagues,
  951. 31:13all we care about from fourth, fifth
  952. 31:15round on, maybe even before that, is
  953. 31:17ceiling. And Basel Tuton is the kind of
  954. 31:19runner as the second most athletic
  955. 31:22running back in combine history only
  956. 31:24because Mike Washington showed up for
  957. 31:25the Raiders and is now the most athletic
  958. 31:27running back ever. Basel Tuton is the
  959. 31:29kind of player who can win your league,
  960. 31:31especially if you're taking him at his
  961. 31:33cost. So, I'm going to just take a shot
  962. 31:36on Basil Tutin every time and cross my
  963. 31:38fingers it works out after finishing
  964. 31:40with the fifth highest success rate of
  965. 31:42any running back last season.
  966. 31:44>> I am also a 2026 Tuton guy. Wasn't in
  967. 31:48the bandwagon so much last year, but new
  968. 31:50year, new me. The thing I keep coming
  969. 31:51back to, man, is like this borderline
  970. 31:53RB2, if not even high-end RB3 price tag.
  971. 31:56I feel like that's where Toutton lands
  972. 31:58in the weekly ranks. If it is like a
  973. 32:006040
  974. 32:02split between him and Crod or 603010 Sha
  975. 32:04Laquent Allen Jr. If we just see him
  976. 32:07week one it's like oh man Tutin had 18
  977. 32:10combined carries and targets. Crod had
  978. 32:12six 75% snaps in that offense bro like
  979. 32:16Bashalt Tuton is the one guy that sticks
  980. 32:17out here where as soon as we get
  981. 32:19reasonable usage that we can I think
  982. 32:22reasonably expect the lead running back
  983. 32:24here in offense. We like Bash Ton could
  984. 32:25be ranked in the top 12 as early as week
  985. 32:27two or week three. completely agree. And
  986. 32:30again, it could go wrong, but all I care
  987. 32:32about is upside in our home leagues. And
  988. 32:34I think he offers the kind of upside
  989. 32:36that could then suddenly sneak and we
  990. 32:38could be drafting in the second or third
  991. 32:40round next year.
  992. 32:41>> So, I'm with you. I'm chasing the
  993. 32:42upside, too. That's why I feel like it's
  994. 32:44a little bit backwards to also be cool
  995. 32:45with Dave Montgomery. Is that more so
  996. 32:47like a build type of thing? Because I
  997. 32:49will admit, okay, if I found my way to
  998. 32:51get, you know, three awesome wide
  999. 32:52receivers early, I got a Coloulston
  1000. 32:54Lovelin there and I don't have a running
  1001. 32:55back yet. Yeah. Okay, I am a little more
  1002. 32:57willing to take a guy whose ceiling is
  1003. 32:59probably more of a low-end, you know,
  1004. 33:00RB1 like a Dave Montgomery. Is that kind
  1005. 33:03of where you're coming from?
  1006. 33:04>> Coming from a usage standpoint? Yeah.
  1007. 33:06Again, there's no skeleton key in all of
  1008. 33:07fantasy football, but projecting touches
  1009. 33:09is as close as we get for especially at
  1010. 33:12running back. And so Dave Montgomery is
  1011. 33:14a guy given the mix and workload that I
  1012. 33:16mentioned. I really do think we're
  1013. 33:17looking at 20 plus touches per game. um
  1014. 33:20they're and they may not be exciting,
  1015. 33:21but also we don't give Dave Montgomery
  1016. 33:24enough credit for earning those touches
  1017. 33:25alongside Jir Gibbs. We always just
  1018. 33:27wanted to see only Jir Gibbs, but Dave
  1019. 33:29Montgomery was very good when he was
  1020. 33:31healthy for Detroit.
  1021. 33:32>> Kind of like the DeAndre Swift thing,
  1022. 33:34too. They get kicked the curb for a
  1023. 33:35really freaking good running back.
  1024. 33:37Perhaps gave him a little too much
  1025. 33:38slander for that. So, well said. I will
  1026. 33:40say there is a skeleton key, John. His
  1027. 33:42name is Marshon Lloyd, but we'll save
  1028. 33:44that topic for another day.
  1029. 33:46>> Would you let's paid as well. Do we have
  1030. 33:49time?
  1031. 33:50>> What's your fade? Yeah, go.
  1032. 33:51>> Yeah. So, we talk about this to your
  1033. 33:53players. Uh, the first thing I look for,
  1034. 33:56like my alarms go off whenever we start
  1035. 33:58projecting running backs who have never
  1036. 34:00had large workloads for large workloads.
  1037. 34:03And Jadarian Price, I can't believe the
  1038. 34:06cost. Uh, just 295 touches on his
  1039. 34:09collegiate resume. And despite that
  1040. 34:12small workload, still four fumbles, only
  1041. 34:1415 career catches. and even on a per
  1042. 34:17route basis because people say, "Oh, he
  1043. 34:18just didn't get targets, didn't get
  1044. 34:20catches because he didn't play."
  1045. 34:21Jeremiah Love was first in this class
  1046. 34:23and target per route run. Uh Jiren Price
  1047. 34:26was second to last in target per run
  1048. 34:29among this class. Even when he played,
  1049. 34:30he could not earn targets at all. And
  1050. 34:32now we're trying to jam him 18 touches
  1051. 34:34per game just because he got drafted in
  1052. 34:36the first round for an offense that
  1053. 34:38plays outdoors without Clint Kubak.
  1054. 34:40There is no chance in hell we are taking
  1055. 34:43Jenerian Price at ADP. No way.
  1056. 34:46>> Okay, I do appreciate you making that
  1057. 34:48argument without trying to act like
  1058. 34:49George Helani is some sort of big
  1059. 34:51concern that we need to be worried
  1060. 34:52about.
  1061. 34:53>> I will give you credit there. I think
  1062. 34:55it's more of a Kenneth Walker situation
  1063. 34:57receiving wise. Sure, we haven't seen
  1064. 34:59it, but we have no reason to actually
  1065. 35:00think that Price can't catch the
  1066. 35:02football. Funny but true, John. 55
  1067. 35:04receptions during his last two seasons
  1068. 35:06in high school. Okay, how about that for
  1069. 35:08Darian Price? Then he like ruptured his
  1070. 35:10Achilles, I think it was early at ND. We
  1071. 35:12don't talk about that anymore. So, I
  1072. 35:14hear you from the profile standpoint. A
  1073. 35:16lot of people did believe it was a reach
  1074. 35:18for him to go round one in the first
  1075. 35:19place, but don't you think there is a
  1076. 35:21chance that we're sitting here in
  1077. 35:22November just being like, "Yeah, why
  1078. 35:24didn't I take the round one running back
  1079. 35:25on the Seahawks, though?"
  1080. 35:27>> I would be shocked if we're sitting here
  1081. 35:29doing that. If you if you loved Zamir
  1082. 35:31White two years ago, you're going to
  1083. 35:32love JM Prize this year. Love
  1084. 35:35[laughter and gasps]
  1085. 35:36>> Fair. I will say out of this group, I
  1086. 35:38prefer Swift. I prefer pretty much
  1087. 35:41everyone other than Bucky Irving J to
  1088. 35:44Jarian Price. I can't get behind Bucky
  1089. 35:45this year.
  1090. 35:46>> Well, it's it's very obvious all the
  1091. 35:48signs they've given us in Tampa Bay that
  1092. 35:51they want to use a committee whether it
  1093. 35:52be allowing Shawn Tucker to be there
  1094. 35:54inside the fiveback last season now
  1095. 35:56adding Kenneth Gainwell. And I don't
  1096. 35:58copy paste Kenneth Gainwell's target
  1097. 36:00share from last year, which you know,
  1098. 36:02we'll discuss Aaron Rogers in a bit here
  1099. 36:03for another running back I really like
  1100. 36:05in the mid rounds. But the fact is they
  1101. 36:07now have a bruising running back at the
  1102. 36:09goal line, a passcatching back and Bucky
  1103. 36:11Irving between the 20s. And so Bucky
  1104. 36:14Irving, if he's not going to get those
  1105. 36:15target shares because of his of being
  1106. 36:17undersized, we are now seeing it kind of
  1107. 36:19trickle out throughout his career that
  1108. 36:20he's battling multiple injuries. It just
  1109. 36:23doesn't seem like the ADP is worth the
  1110. 36:25squeeze.
  1111. 36:26>> Last thing on Tooten because again I'm
  1112. 36:28with you and I want to just continue to
  1113. 36:29hammer home that he is our big target
  1114. 36:30here in this range. Don't love the Chris
  1115. 36:33Rodriguez foot injury, John. I'm even a
  1116. 36:35little curious if it could be one that,
  1117. 36:36you know, rhymes with KissFrank or
  1118. 36:38something uh going on there. It's not
  1119. 36:40ideal, man.
  1120. 36:43>> I agree with you. Uh and that's about it
  1121. 36:46for me in this tier, though. I I think
  1122. 36:48I'm comfortably talked about where I'm
  1123. 36:51coming back in and then zooming back
  1124. 36:52out. I'm still deciding personally in my
  1125. 36:55draft strategy what my tight end plan
  1126. 36:57is. It It's Brock Bowers over Trey
  1127. 36:59McBride. I won't have any Trey McBride
  1128. 37:01again. This is not the show for that.
  1129. 37:02invite me back on. We can talk about it
  1130. 37:03in depth. Um, but when do I when and if
  1131. 37:06do I draft Colston Lovelin? If not, then
  1132. 37:08who am I waiting for? That's really what
  1133. 37:10I'm working through right now.
  1134. 37:12>> It is interesting the fall off that kind
  1135. 37:14of happens around round 10, round 11
  1136. 37:16with tight ends. But to John's point,
  1137. 37:18story for another day. Let's get really
  1138. 37:20gross. Now, personally, I found very
  1139. 37:22little reason and accordingly I haven't
  1140. 37:24done this much to click Tony Pard, Chuba
  1141. 37:26Hubard, or RJ Harvey this off
  1142. 37:28seasonason. Good idea or bad idea?
  1143. 37:30>> Terrific idea. Uh, I mean, you can't you
  1144. 37:32can't take the starters that are worse
  1145. 37:34than the backups. We we want to just
  1146. 37:36rather take those pot shots on the
  1147. 37:38players we think have a higher ceiling,
  1148. 37:40even if we have to wait them out. And I
  1149. 37:42think that's what's ultimately going to
  1150. 37:43happen for this this crew of backups.
  1151. 37:45But starting with Tony Pard, uh, that's
  1152. 37:48not the pass catching back. It will be
  1153. 37:51most likely Nick Singleton who again we
  1154. 37:53will probably have to wait on Nicholas
  1155. 37:54Singleton to earn that role later on.
  1156. 37:57But players who have played historically
  1157. 37:59on passing downs have more outs in those
  1158. 38:01laterers rounds. And Nicholas Singleton
  1159. 38:03did earn a double- digit target share in
  1160. 38:05his last two seasons with Penn State. He
  1161. 38:07also averaged one and a half yards per
  1162. 38:09out run and his last three playing slot
  1163. 38:13or out wide on 20% of snaps. So, he
  1164. 38:15could definitely be the pass catching
  1165. 38:16back uh who could outscore Tony Pard.
  1166. 38:20>> Well, Spears should be it from week one
  1167. 38:21either way.
  1168. 38:22>> Correct. The thing is about drafting
  1169. 38:24Spears 2 though is that he has not been
  1170. 38:27able to beat out Tony Pard and so I
  1171. 38:29don't want to then take that chance
  1172. 38:31thinking he's the one who wins the
  1173. 38:33backfield. Most likely, you know,
  1174. 38:35really, most likely we are dropping Taj
  1175. 38:38Spears and Nicholas Nicholas Singleton
  1176. 38:40by week five. That's fine. But that's
  1177. 38:42why you take the ceiling shots.
  1178. 38:43Understanding we're going to grind the
  1179. 38:44waiver wire anyway.
  1180. 38:45>> RJ Harvey, uh, it's always bad. You do
  1181. 38:47this like me, so I know you understand.
  1182. 38:49We may be talking to each other. It's
  1183. 38:51always bad when you have to scroll to
  1184. 38:52the last page to find a player's
  1185. 38:54numbers. Cam Ward is the first player
  1186. 38:55that comes to mind. RJ Harvey is the Cam
  1187. 38:58Ward of running backs where you have to
  1188. 39:00go to the very last page to get to his
  1189. 39:02success rate, his explosive rate. You
  1190. 39:04could stay there if it talks about
  1191. 39:05getting stuffed to the line of
  1192. 39:06scrimmage. R.J. Darby was incredible at
  1193. 39:08that stat, but very clearly Shawn
  1194. 39:11Payeyton then focused on Jonah Coleman,
  1195. 39:14who does have also an elite resume. 6.8
  1196. 39:17yards per carry at just 20 years old
  1197. 39:20with Arizona, 80 catches on 90 targets
  1198. 39:22in his last three years. And his yards
  1199. 39:24per route run last year was second in
  1200. 39:26the class behind Jeremiah Lot. So Joe
  1201. 39:28Nicoleman is someone who I actually
  1202. 39:29think it's going to happen much quicker
  1203. 39:31than Nicholas Singleton for Denver,
  1204. 39:34albeit it still may have be a committee
  1205. 39:36with R.J. Harvey. And then of course
  1206. 39:38Jonathan Brooks behind Chuba Hubard. My
  1207. 39:40only issue with Brooks is that he still
  1208. 39:42uses an O and Jonathan. I wish he
  1209. 39:44changed it up, but that's fine. I know
  1210. 39:45how to spell it. I I know how to spell
  1211. 39:47it, so that's okay. But really just
  1212. 39:49think about I talk about not being able
  1213. 39:52to beat out the starter. Chuba Hubard
  1214. 39:54could not beat out Rico Dael who was
  1215. 39:56Walter Peyton whenever he got a chance
  1216. 39:58without Chuba Hubard. And so Jonathan
  1217. 40:00Brooks is at such a discount compared to
  1218. 40:03Chuba Huard. Regardless of whether we've
  1219. 40:05seen him play football and we haven't
  1220. 40:06for two years, I just think taking that
  1221. 40:09dart on Jonathan Brooks is perfectly
  1222. 40:11fine compared to what we know Chuba
  1223. 40:14Hubard does not offer us.
  1224. 40:16>> Let's everyone listening here, let's
  1225. 40:18just all agree. Don't talk about
  1226. 40:20Jonathan Brooks. All right? Let's keep
  1227. 40:22it our secret. Let's keep him as a late
  1228. 40:24round pick. He's going outside the top
  1229. 40:26120 on Sleeper and ESPN right now. I was
  1230. 40:28in an FFP draft where I saw him go ahead
  1231. 40:30of Chuba. And it wasn't that ridiculous,
  1232. 40:32John. I could I I I'm going in a draft.
  1233. 40:34I'm looking at my ranks. It tells me
  1234. 40:36Chuba Hubard is the next player to
  1235. 40:38draft. What do I do? I don't draft Chuba
  1236. 40:40Hubard. I move him down in my ranks.
  1237. 40:41He's the Corland Sutton of running
  1238. 40:43backs. I don't want anything to do with
  1239. 40:44it.
  1240. 40:45>> Completely agree. And Brooks is
  1241. 40:46definitely going to be the biggest riser
  1242. 40:48in FFPC drafts as we move along this
  1243. 40:50summer. No doubt.
  1244. 40:51Man, oh man. So, the RJ Harvey stuff, I
  1245. 40:54just I get worried because I'm so out in
  1246. 40:56the guy. Like, I ranked him like an
  1247. 40:57insulting RB41. Like, that's just a
  1248. 41:00point where it's like, oh my gosh. Like,
  1249. 41:02really? Yeah, I'm saying really because
  1250. 41:03I don't see it. It wasn't as good as
  1251. 41:04Dobbins. Wasn't wasn't good at all last
  1252. 41:06year. And I'm with you on everything
  1253. 41:07about Coleman could be a nuisance to him
  1254. 41:09both pass pro and goal line. Also still
  1255. 41:11facing all those, you know, just
  1256. 41:12chasing, I should say, the Shawn
  1257. 41:13Payeyton, you know, Alvin Chimera,
  1258. 41:15Darren Sprouls, ghost from past years,
  1259. 41:17and we just haven't really seen that
  1260. 41:18show up in Denver as well. So, yeah,
  1261. 41:20R.J. R.J. Harvey not quite doing it for
  1262. 41:22me. That said, I'm not really interested
  1263. 41:23in Coleman or Dobbins either, man. I
  1264. 41:26just think it's going to be this
  1265. 41:27annoying three-back committee. If one
  1266. 41:29guy gets hurt, like, all right, we'll
  1267. 41:30adjust at that point. But the problem is
  1268. 41:33last year, and I see this push back a
  1269. 41:34lot. It's like, all right, well, what
  1270. 41:35happened when Dobins? He gets hurt every
  1271. 41:36year. He got hurt again last year. And
  1272. 41:38Harvey put up RB1 numbers down the
  1273. 41:40stretch. That's fine. He was the only
  1274. 41:42show in town during that time. I am
  1275. 41:44very, very skeptical that would still be
  1276. 41:46the case even if Wen Dobbins gets
  1277. 41:48injured to the point where I'm kind of
  1278. 41:49with you. Coleman could just take the
  1279. 41:50whole handcuff job.
  1280. 41:52>> Again, it might be slower, but also for
  1281. 41:54RJ Harvey, that's kind of why we were
  1282. 41:56drafting him, too. Uh, he could have
  1283. 41:58been your RB2 and deep championship
  1284. 42:00teams despite being so inefficient just
  1285. 42:03because he gave you 20 touches per game.
  1286. 42:05They were bad touches, but 20 touches
  1287. 42:07per game, you're going to plug in
  1288. 42:08regardless of your situation pretty much
  1289. 42:10every time. And that's why we're kind of
  1290. 42:12talking about these running backs
  1291. 42:13because I do think that is their range
  1292. 42:15of outcomes despite going later on. All
  1293. 42:18his good plays coming against the early
  1294. 42:20season Cowboys and Bengals, too. I'm
  1295. 42:23skeptical. I'm skeptical, Johnny. All
  1296. 42:25right, after this range, this is where
  1297. 42:26we get like the cheap backfields that
  1298. 42:28are cheap because we don't exactly know
  1299. 42:29who's going to be the leader. Okay, we
  1300. 42:31got Pittsburgh. Talked about Denver and
  1301. 42:33Carolina a little bit already, but
  1302. 42:34Washington with Shaw Rashad White and
  1303. 42:36Bill Krosky Merritt. Also Minnesota with
  1304. 42:38Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. So those
  1305. 42:40five teams, John, Pittsburgh, Denver,
  1306. 42:42Carolina, Washington, Minnesota. Again,
  1307. 42:44that's a big chunk of the RB3, RB4
  1308. 42:47range. I got two chips for you. You got
  1309. 42:49to throw them on any of these running
  1310. 42:50backs that we mentioned from these back
  1311. 42:52fields. Who do you want to take?
  1312. 42:54>> You told me two chips, but since I just
  1313. 42:56talked about Jonathan Brooks, who I will
  1314. 42:57I will make it a point to draft in my
  1315. 42:59home leagues. Um, I'm going to push that
  1316. 43:02to the side and use two more chips. So,
  1317. 43:03we're going to give a bonus to everyone
  1318. 43:04listening. [laughter] Love Jonathan
  1319. 43:06Brooks of course, but let's start with
  1320. 43:07Jaylen Warren because Aaron Rodgers did
  1321. 43:10not lead the league in running back
  1322. 43:12target rate last year because Kenneth
  1323. 43:15Gainwell was that good at earning
  1324. 43:17targets. Aaron Rogers led the league in
  1325. 43:19running back target rate because he
  1326. 43:20cannot take hits in his age 40 season,
  1327. 43:23which is also why he finished with the
  1328. 43:24quickest time from snap to throw.
  1329. 43:26Regardless of Mike McCarthy coming in
  1330. 43:28and increasing the place and most likely
  1331. 43:31pace and most likely playing more three
  1332. 43:33wide sets, Aaron Rodgers is who he is in
  1333. 43:36his final years and he's going to throw
  1334. 43:38to running backs. And who do you think
  1335. 43:40now will get those running back targets
  1336. 43:42considering Rico Dael wasn't even the
  1337. 43:43passcatching back whenever Chuba Hubard
  1338. 43:46was healthy? It is going to be Jaylen
  1339. 43:48Warren. And that's how we get this
  1340. 43:50mid-round running back and push him up
  1341. 43:52the board to suddenly be a fourth or
  1342. 43:53fifth round value. So, I think Jaylen
  1343. 43:55Warren has outs to lead this team in
  1344. 43:57touches, but more importantly, always be
  1345. 43:59viable to flex if we need it in a pinch
  1346. 44:01because he's the pass catching back from
  1347. 44:03Aaron Rogers in Pittsburgh. And then the
  1348. 44:06second one is ugly. And actually, I'm in
  1349. 44:08the minority of thinking this and that's
  1350. 44:10okay. I've been in the minority. I've
  1351. 44:11been right and wrong. Totally fine. But
  1352. 44:14I do like getting a discount on Jaori
  1353. 44:16Crosky Meritt again this year. Last year
  1354. 44:19the ADP got increasingly too high and
  1355. 44:21the passcatching resume is certainly
  1356. 44:23concerning. Just nine catches all of
  1357. 44:25last year. Uh his highest in cross five
  1358. 44:28seasons I believe it was in college was
  1359. 44:3013 catches. Not a pass catching back. I
  1360. 44:32get it. It's something he was reportedly
  1361. 44:34worked on in camp. But whether that's
  1362. 44:36true or not, I don't know. The team even
  1363. 44:37went out and added Rashad White who
  1364. 44:39probably is the passcatching back. But
  1365. 44:41in terms of leading the team in carries
  1366. 44:42and touches, Crosky Merritt again, you
  1367. 44:44get a two to four round discount in your
  1368. 44:46home league compared to last year.
  1369. 44:48Already like that. And he was still a
  1370. 44:50very explosive player. He was 10th in
  1371. 44:52his rate of 10 yard carries last year
  1372. 44:54finishing between Bejan Robinson and
  1373. 44:56Dererick Henry. If you look at the
  1374. 44:58numbers, it is those two elite players
  1375. 45:00and then Jaka Cross Merritt right there.
  1376. 45:02I'm I'm not even squinting and
  1377. 45:04suggesting we're going to get more
  1378. 45:06catches because that's how we really
  1379. 45:07unlock the upside of Jakory Cross
  1380. 45:09Merritt. but in an ambiguous backfield
  1381. 45:11with both players going in similar
  1382. 45:13ranges. I do know a lot of people want
  1383. 45:15Rashad White because the pass catching
  1384. 45:17resume, but Rashad White's touches have
  1385. 45:19also decreased in every season in Tampa
  1386. 45:20Bay since 2023 because he could not win
  1387. 45:23a committee backfield. I'm still going
  1388. 45:25to cross my fingers and guess that the
  1389. 45:27player we wanted to draft in the sixth
  1390. 45:28round last year that we can now get in
  1391. 45:30the 10th round can win a committee
  1392. 45:32backfield. So, I like Jaka Crosky
  1393. 45:35Merritt this year. And it's unfortunate
  1394. 45:37that the Bill hype got as crazy as it
  1395. 45:39did because again, it's just all
  1396. 45:41relative to his ADP. If Bill had come
  1397. 45:43out of nowhere to the same extent as
  1398. 45:45like James Robinson, we'd be saying, "Oh
  1399. 45:47man, what a great rookie season he just
  1400. 45:48had."
  1401. 45:50>> Agree. And that's why I didn't get him
  1402. 45:52in much home leagues because I I fear
  1403. 45:54that's what's going to happen with
  1404. 45:54Jerian Price this season is that
  1405. 45:56everyone's just going to assume this
  1406. 45:58this rookie that we haven't seen. Thus,
  1407. 46:00we paint uh an infinite ceiling in our
  1408. 46:02heads. We haven't just seen it yet is
  1409. 46:04going to cause the EDP to skyrocket. But
  1410. 46:07I like discounts. I like discounts a
  1411. 46:09lot.
  1412. 46:10>> Cory Cross, Rashad White, one of the
  1413. 46:12single most important camp battles. to
  1414. 46:14try to figure out because again guys,
  1415. 46:16one of these guys, whoever ends up
  1416. 46:17winning that majority job going to be
  1417. 46:19moving up the ranks in a hurry. I'm with
  1418. 46:21you on Jaylen Warren. My thing has just
  1419. 46:23been like take one of the Steelers
  1420. 46:24running backs and let's face it, Rico
  1421. 46:26Dattle usually goes a couple rounds
  1422. 46:27after. So, I've been more okay getting
  1423. 46:28that. I think though the nail on the
  1424. 46:30head, I'm with you 100%. Get running
  1425. 46:32backs attached to just elderly freaking
  1426. 46:3542-y old quarterbacks because time and
  1427. 46:37time again, dude, Leonard Fornette was
  1428. 46:38catching 70 passes from Tom Brady at the
  1429. 46:40end of his career. Drew Brees had
  1430. 46:42everything going on with, you know,
  1431. 46:43Chimera and just the other guys before
  1432. 46:45that and now we're seeing it with Aaron
  1433. 46:46Rogers. Like, man, I run the numbers if
  1434. 46:49you don't, John. There's got to be just
  1435. 46:50ridiculous target totals coming from any
  1436. 46:53quarterback age 38 plus.
  1437. 46:55>> And I am back in on uh we're talking
  1438. 46:57about like just running backs in general
  1439. 46:59that we like in this range. I am back on
  1440. 47:01in on Washington as a whole. It's not
  1441. 47:04just JKR who suddenly discounted. Jaden
  1442. 47:06Daniels as well is one of the bigger
  1443. 47:08steels. he's going to be drafted after
  1444. 47:09Drake May and Joe Burrow in your league,
  1445. 47:12making Jaden Daniels the the target
  1446. 47:15among those players. Um, also for Terry
  1447. 47:17McLaren, again, last year without Debo
  1448. 47:19Samuel on the field, he was targeted on
  1449. 47:2130% of his routes. He put up career
  1450. 47:23highs in points per game and endzone
  1451. 47:24targets in 2024 from Jane Daniels,
  1452. 47:26assuming everyone's healthy, like these
  1453. 47:28are the players, Washington's offense,
  1454. 47:30uh, similar to how we discussed about
  1455. 47:32Philly's players whose ADPs are just too
  1456. 47:34low for last year's results that we're
  1457. 47:36going to ignore. The one problem,
  1458. 47:38potential problem, I think James Connor
  1459. 47:40is going to play somewhere. Why not
  1460. 47:42Washington?
  1461. 47:44>> That would that would be detrimental.
  1462. 47:47>> Do you think there's many more running
  1463. 47:49backs out there? I I would love to see
  1464. 47:50Joe Mixon holding up a newspaper. I
  1465. 47:52don't know if that dude is still alive.
  1466. 47:53Kareem Hunt is technically still a free
  1467. 47:55agent. He might just be waiting around
  1468. 47:57to see if Kansas City calls him again.
  1469. 47:59James Connor is like the only veteran
  1470. 48:01who I could definitely see changing
  1471. 48:03teams and just kind of making this a
  1472. 48:05little bit of a ruckus here because we
  1473. 48:06have a bunch of wide receivers we're
  1474. 48:07worried about. I feel like Connor is the
  1475. 48:09only running back that kind of applause.
  1476. 48:11>> He's really the only one that comes to
  1477. 48:12mind unless the Eagles would want to
  1478. 48:14trade like Will Shipley, but you're
  1479. 48:16getting into to that range of players
  1480. 48:18that perhaps have upside and they can
  1481. 48:20also play special teams, but I'm not too
  1482. 48:23scared of anyone. Speaking of the
  1483. 48:25Eagles, Johnny, who's your favorite late
  1484. 48:27round handcuff, and why is it Tank Bsby
  1485. 48:29or someone else?
  1486. 48:30>> Uh Tank Bess makes sense. I I just can't
  1487. 48:33imagine a situation where we're ever
  1488. 48:35going to know when to start him in
  1489. 48:37season long league. So
  1490. 48:38>> pure pure injury contingent handcuff
  1491. 48:40>> that's a lot harder. But uh speaking of
  1492. 48:42injury contingency, there's there's a
  1493. 48:43lot of good guys this year. Woody Marks
  1494. 48:45is one we just saw. We just saw after
  1495. 48:48their buy, he handled 16 and a half
  1496. 48:50touches per game. Two postseason
  1497. 48:51contests, 19 touches per game. So
  1498. 48:53although David Montgomery is there, if
  1499. 48:55Dave Montgomery is injured, we already
  1500. 48:57have the evidence that Woody Marks will
  1501. 48:59be like a low-end RB1 in terms of usage.
  1502. 49:02So love Woody Marks later on. Jaden
  1503. 49:04Blue, if you just want to bet against
  1504. 49:06Javante Williams having a career year,
  1505. 49:08like it is the kind of age, right, where
  1506. 49:10I think he's going to be 26 this year
  1507. 49:12where it's not surprising he broke out
  1508. 49:14in two years post serious injury. But
  1509. 49:16again, we haven't seen those numbers
  1510. 49:17from Javante Williams ever. So maybe
  1511. 49:19it's just not the same case. Jaden Blue
  1512. 49:21has reportedly matured this off
  1513. 49:23seasonason. We'll see if that's a real
  1514. 49:24thing after, you know, he finally got a
  1515. 49:26chance mid year last year and showed up
  1516. 49:28to practice with blue Versace cleats and
  1517. 49:30got blisters because they weren't the
  1518. 49:32right cleats to practice in. We'll see
  1519. 49:33if he's actually matured. But I like
  1520. 49:35Jaden Blue a lot. Uh Ray Davis,
  1521. 49:37>> this is the one guy in that Sorry, John,
  1522. 49:39real quick. Like
  1523. 49:40>> you're good.
  1524. 49:40>> Phil Mafa, I know Malik Davis actually
  1525. 49:42was the backup during the second half of
  1526. 49:44last season. That's like earlier when I
  1527. 49:45was starting to go through his deaf
  1528. 49:46choice. I was like, really? We're doing
  1529. 49:47the Jaden Blue thing again. even though
  1530. 49:49Malik Davis had it. But if I do look at
  1531. 49:52the guys behind Javvante and I try to
  1532. 49:54see like who actually could maybe carve
  1533. 49:55out like maybe not a 1B role but earn a
  1534. 49:59legit change of pace role like it's
  1535. 50:01definitely Blue with some of the pass
  1536. 50:02catching and explosiveness he brings to
  1537. 50:04the table.
  1538. 50:05>> Uh I and that's why I like Jaden Blue.
  1539. 50:07Ray Davis is another one because a lot
  1540. 50:09of times what happens when you're
  1541. 50:10looking at contingency players, a lot of
  1542. 50:12people think just because let's say
  1543. 50:13Justice Hill for example plays touches
  1544. 50:16when their starter is healthy that means
  1545. 50:19that is the player who takes over. That
  1546. 50:20is not at all the case whatsoever. Uh
  1547. 50:23that includes Ray Davis. Like Ty Johnson
  1548. 50:24has only gotten double digit touches for
  1549. 50:26Buffalo two times in his career with the
  1550. 50:28Bills. Ray Davis though the one time in
  1551. 50:31the last two years that James Cook was
  1552. 50:32injured. Ray Davis 20 touches 150 yards
  1553. 50:35from scrimmage and a touchdown. Like
  1554. 50:36that's the guy who can't get on the
  1555. 50:38field because he is James Cook. So when
  1556. 50:40James Cook is out, it's not Tai Johnson,
  1557. 50:42the satellite role player. It is Ray
  1558. 50:44Davis who gets all the touches. So I
  1559. 50:47still like grabbing Ray Davis and
  1560. 50:48stashing him. And then for for the
  1561. 50:50reason I mentioned in regression in the
  1562. 50:52running game in Las Vegas, it does seem
  1563. 50:54like Mike Washington is also uh Ashton
  1564. 50:57Genty's direct backup. So I'll probably
  1565. 51:00stash Mike Washington in deeper leagues,
  1566. 51:02too. But in season long leagues, recall
  1567. 51:04like you have to actually look at your
  1568. 51:05roster and be wary that you cannot use
  1569. 51:08these guys for six weeks probably. Like
  1570. 51:10they just sit there and the way it works
  1571. 51:12out is that the moment you scratch them,
  1572. 51:15that's when they're going to start the
  1573. 51:16next week. But don't worry about that.
  1574. 51:18You still have to then put them at the
  1575. 51:19end of your bench because you understand
  1576. 51:20they can win your leagues if they ever
  1577. 51:22play. And I feel like John, if I am
  1578. 51:24going more zero RB where my first
  1579. 51:26running back is, you know, god forbid a
  1580. 51:28DeAndre Swift or, you know, in your
  1581. 51:29nightmare, someone like Jadarian Price,
  1582. 51:31that would probably dissuade me from
  1583. 51:33wanting to have guys like Pacheco and
  1584. 51:35Tank Bigsby and Mike Washington on my
  1585. 51:36bench because I'm going to be needing to
  1586. 51:38potentially tap into these guys sooner
  1587. 51:39rather than later because I don't
  1588. 51:41actually love my, you know, initial
  1589. 51:42death at the position. So maybe that's
  1590. 51:44when a Kenneth Gamewell or a Woody Mars
  1591. 51:46or a Jonathan Brooks becomes even more
  1592. 51:47appealing. Whereas, if I do take Saquon
  1593. 51:50Barkley and Ashen Genty out the turn,
  1594. 51:52you know, we got our two running backs.
  1595. 51:54We're feeling great about it. I'm going
  1596. 51:55to load up on other positions for the
  1597. 51:56majority of the draft, that's probably
  1598. 51:58when I'm more so inclined to take some
  1599. 51:59of these guys where no, we're not going
  1600. 52:01to get the week-toeek utility of a Woody
  1601. 52:03Marks necessarily, but the best handcuff
  1602. 52:06upside might be even higher.
  1603. 52:09Agree. And that's kind of why my draft
  1604. 52:12plan changes not only every year, but
  1605. 52:15really based on the league. I have I
  1606. 52:16have an idea of where I want to go. Last
  1607. 52:19year I wanted to live in the Jawan
  1608. 52:21Jennings Ricky Pieraw range of wide
  1609. 52:23receivers for example because I
  1610. 52:25understood like that tier can win your
  1611. 52:27league and a lot of those wide receivers
  1612. 52:28did ultimately break out. Um and this
  1613. 52:31year like I said it's the third tier of
  1614. 52:33wide receivers I really want to to live
  1615. 52:34in. Not to mention Brock Bowers at the
  1616. 52:36first second round turn since last year
  1617. 52:39Trey McBride was the value you should
  1618. 52:41have picked over Bowowers because he's
  1619. 52:42going a full round after Bowowers in
  1620. 52:44your league. this year they're they're
  1621. 52:45neck and neck. Thus, we want Bowowers
  1622. 52:48and we want to fade Trey McBride.
  1623. 52:50>> So, with that in mind, John, take me to
  1624. 52:51our second to last question here. And
  1625. 52:53that was again, you kind of already
  1626. 52:54answered this, so you don't have a
  1627. 52:56specific like year-to-year running back
  1628. 52:58strategy you typically lean on, which I
  1629. 52:59think makes sense having a quarterback
  1630. 53:01more late round strategy. I think that
  1631. 53:03is more easy to apply year-over-year.
  1632. 53:05So, looking at 2026 as things stand
  1633. 53:07right now, from what you're describing,
  1634. 53:09it sounds like this might be the hero RB
  1635. 53:12year for you. I believe so. Again, I
  1636. 53:15want to live in the back of the draft
  1637. 53:16with Ashton Genty and Saquon Barkley in
  1638. 53:18particular, maybe even both of them, and
  1639. 53:20then hammer wide receiver, find out
  1640. 53:23which late round tight end I want the
  1641. 53:24most. Last year, I was only in on Tucker
  1642. 53:26Craft, Jake Ferguson, and Dallas
  1643. 53:28Goddard. Dallas Goddard and Kyle Pittz
  1644. 53:30this year. I I think I'm going to live
  1645. 53:31in that range if I miss out on Brock
  1646. 53:33Bowers and Coloulston Lovelin. Uh so,
  1647. 53:35yeah, I think hero RB is the way I'm
  1648. 53:37going to go, but again, I'm very
  1649. 53:38open-minded to robust. I just don't
  1650. 53:41think especially in home league because
  1651. 53:43baseball, you've talked about this on
  1652. 53:45past shows, I know you've written about
  1653. 53:46it, quarterback ADP for everyone just
  1654. 53:48tuning into baseball leagues, has surged
  1655. 53:50to exponential heights this year. Uh
  1656. 53:52record-breaking that the QB2s, like the
  1657. 53:54QB 20 through 26 are being drafted like,
  1658. 53:57you know, in the 13th round, and by that
  1659. 53:58time, it's only third stringers left.
  1660. 54:01That's not going to happen in home
  1661. 54:02leagues at all. Home leagues are still
  1662. 54:03going to chase running backs heavily.
  1663. 54:05And so rather than avoiding that run, I
  1664. 54:07do want to make sure I I sandwich myself
  1665. 54:09in between that run and get at least one
  1666. 54:11strong one and then start picking apart
  1667. 54:13other positions from there.
  1668. 54:15>> I do think there's a scenario if you're
  1669. 54:17kind of in the middle of round one or
  1670. 54:19more of a zero approach makes sense. You
  1671. 54:21know, you get your Amra St. Brown,
  1672. 54:23Justin Jefferson, you get Brock Bowers
  1673. 54:25in round two. Maybe you don't love the
  1674. 54:26options in round three. So you just say,
  1675. 54:28"Hey, I'm going to take these great, you
  1676. 54:29know, wide receivers or even a Josh
  1677. 54:31Allen from there." Then more of a zero
  1678. 54:32method makes sense. But no, I'm with
  1679. 54:34you, man. Just with more and more of the
  1680. 54:36builds I've been trying to practice,
  1681. 54:38getting through mocks and best baseball
  1682. 54:39lineups and even some of the reddraft
  1683. 54:40leagues I've gotten in early, I just
  1684. 54:42feel like getting that one running back
  1685. 54:44to build around and then having the rest
  1686. 54:46of your running back room just to figure
  1687. 54:47out that RB2 spot, John, like that's
  1688. 54:49kind of where I'm coming from here. I
  1689. 54:51feel like it's the best of both worlds
  1690. 54:52where like it's not obviously I feel
  1691. 54:54best for my running back room if I'm
  1692. 54:55taking two in the first two rounds, but
  1693. 54:57like exactly what you said and that's I
  1694. 54:59think a sign of a very smart individual
  1695. 55:01and fantasy analyst, bro. But like it's
  1696. 55:02when a running back question has to
  1697. 55:05include the other positions because
  1698. 55:06we're not just trying to, you know,
  1699. 55:08singularly pick out like, oh yeah, I
  1700. 55:09think Ashen Genty is gonna have a really
  1701. 55:11good year. It's can I draft Ashen Genty
  1702. 55:13and get that really good year while not
  1703. 55:15falling behind other positions and
  1704. 55:16building the best overall roster. So
  1705. 55:18that's kind of where I'm at with your
  1706. 55:19RB. Yes, I think it's good for the RBs,
  1707. 55:21but it's also, man, allowing us to go
  1708. 55:23after that Brock Bowers potentially and
  1709. 55:25load up on those wide receivers where
  1710. 55:27I'm with you, bro. It almost makes me
  1711. 55:29want to be in auction leagues more than
  1712. 55:30ever cuz I just want to draft like each
  1713. 55:32of these wide receivers 18 through 25.
  1714. 55:35>> Like in home leagues, I promise this
  1715. 55:36situation going to rise where everyone's
  1716. 55:38looking at the board of players
  1717. 55:40available and it's the guys we
  1718. 55:41mentioned, right? RJ Harvey, Tony Paul
  1719. 55:43or Chuba Hubard. But also on the board
  1720. 55:45at that time are Jaylen Herz, our god
  1721. 55:48inside the five and Mike Evans are god
  1722. 55:50of touchdowns. Like imagine ever
  1723. 55:53drafting that tier of running backs
  1724. 55:54whenever those two winning players are
  1725. 55:57right there. you're not going to do it
  1726. 55:58if you want to win your league. So, you
  1727. 56:00just have to be very wary and that's why
  1728. 56:02I'm pretty much making the cut off
  1729. 56:04Kairen Williams and then I'm going to
  1730. 56:05dance around and go from there.
  1731. 56:07>> And that's why it can be helpful, you
  1732. 56:09know, after you finish a draft or a mock
  1733. 56:10or whatever, like go back and look at
  1734. 56:12that board and just kind of see where
  1735. 56:13those pockets of players you really like
  1736. 56:14are. I'm with you. Those wide receivers,
  1737. 56:16man, rounds even kind of four through
  1738. 56:18seven where you should be playing
  1739. 56:19catch-up at running back if you're going
  1740. 56:21more of a zero strategy. Very, very
  1741. 56:23tough passes there. But John, great
  1742. 56:25stuff. Before you get out of here
  1743. 56:26though, I know you're a man who travels
  1744. 56:28all around the world and especially
  1745. 56:29America. So, I want you to give the
  1746. 56:31viewers, if not three, at least one or
  1747. 56:33two most underrated vacation spots in
  1748. 56:36continental America.
  1749. 56:38>> Three spots in America. And underrated
  1750. 56:42means you're going to hate these
  1751. 56:43answers, by the way. Yeah. Uh, so I'll
  1752. 56:45count down from three to one.
  1753. 56:46>> Three, New Orleans. I'm a big fan, which
  1754. 56:50is why I've I've grown so fond and proud
  1755. 56:53of the city of Chicago. I'm a big fan
  1756. 56:55when any stature of life can have what
  1757. 56:57they want, like 75 cent tacos or $8
  1758. 57:00tacos. Uh New Orleans, as you saw when
  1759. 57:03you were there for the Super Bowl, Ian,
  1760. 57:05New Orleans is a culture that brings
  1761. 57:07like Texas oil money and uh a poverty
  1762. 57:12situation together for everyone to have
  1763. 57:14a lifestyle. And New Orleans like
  1764. 57:17squeezes out of you that stature
  1765. 57:20regardless of where you sit in the
  1766. 57:22economy. So, I love that everyone can
  1767. 57:24just get together and Greg Olsen can be
  1768. 57:26on a run right next to us while we're
  1769. 57:28drinking at 10:00 a.m. Like, I I love
  1770. 57:30that about cities. So, New Orleans, I
  1771. 57:32think everyone should go to, especially
  1772. 57:33because I'm a big food guy. Uh, some of
  1773. 57:35the best food in the entire country.
  1774. 57:36Number two, because again, underrated,
  1775. 57:38so you're going to hate these answers. I
  1776. 57:40think Coler, Wisconsin, or Wisconsin in
  1777. 57:42general around like the Dells is a
  1778. 57:45beautiful area. Wisconsin, especially in
  1779. 57:47the spring and summer, is extremely
  1780. 57:50green and has a cheap cost of living.
  1781. 57:53Thus, like, you know, your beers are $2
  1782. 57:54to $4, right? But the outdoors are, like
  1783. 57:58I said, ecstatic and extremely green and
  1784. 58:01vibrant and beautiful. Not to mention
  1785. 58:03that that's when it's warm. I understand
  1786. 58:05you want to leave Wisconsin when the
  1787. 58:06winter when it's when it's horrible and
  1788. 58:08it's dark by 400 pm for six months. But
  1789. 58:11uh I'm going to say Coler Wisconsin
  1790. 58:13because the goth there, but honestly
  1791. 58:15even Milwaukee is so underrated in the
  1792. 58:18spring and summer. And then finally what
  1793. 58:20I tell everyone is the most underrated
  1794. 58:22city in America and everyone's
  1795. 58:24disgusted. It is Cleveland, Ohio.
  1796. 58:27Cleveland, Ohio is one of the best
  1797. 58:29cities in the country. Uh regardless of
  1798. 58:32whether you like food, nightife, staying
  1799. 58:35in, going outdoors, there's rivers
  1800. 58:37there. There's a giant lake there. The
  1801. 58:38Browns play lakeside. I know you don't
  1802. 58:40know because we don't watch Browns
  1803. 58:41games, but honestly, Cleveland has
  1804. 58:44everything you would want. I understand
  1805. 58:46in the winter it gets miserable and it
  1806. 58:50is a little it can feel a little bit
  1807. 58:52lonely because it is a smaller
  1808. 58:53population still but I think the town of
  1809. 58:55Cleveland despite being small for a
  1810. 58:57metropolitan uh is my kind of people and
  1811. 59:00the kind of person I want to be. So I
  1812. 59:02think Cleveland is an incredible place.
  1813. 59:05>> You see John, I had to bring you on the
  1814. 59:06show for you to preach the Ohio
  1815. 59:08propaganda because no one's going to
  1816. 59:09believe me if I try to tell them
  1817. 59:10Cleveland's cool. I am the only person
  1818. 59:12knowingly that says I like Ohio who's
  1819. 59:15not from Ohio. I love Ohio.
  1820. 59:17>> Jok Noah somewhere shaking his head, but
  1821. 59:19I'm with you, man. Like, would I want to
  1822. 59:20spend a week in Cleveland? Probably not.
  1823. 59:22But you can have a hell of a night or
  1824. 59:23two there, guys. Four Street is a lot of
  1825. 59:25fun. Shout out to Cordelia. Amazing
  1826. 59:28burgers and just food overall there.
  1827. 59:30Starting to get Apparently the Michelin
  1828. 59:31star people are finally working their
  1829. 59:32way through Ohio. So maybe that'll give
  1830. 59:34us some better national attention going
  1831. 59:36on there. Yeah, man. Got a casino down
  1832. 59:38there. multiple sports teams varying in
  1833. 59:40how good they are. I get it. But yeah,
  1834. 59:44>> Florida is the hell space of America.
  1835. 59:45Like imagine ever wanting to go to
  1836. 59:47Florida over Ohio. No chance. You the
  1837. 59:50propaganda that the public has told me
  1838. 59:53that's wrong. Like do not listen. Ohio's
  1839. 59:55better than Florida.
  1840. 59:56>> Bro, I'm with you. We're like nothing is
  1841. 59:57better than actually getting your
  1842. 59:59receipt and being like, "Oh, that did
  1843. 1:00:01they get everything? Is that
  1844. 1:00:02affordable?" Because that's when I went
  1845. 1:00:03to Milwaukee for the first time. That
  1846. 1:00:04was my thought, too. It was like, "Oh, I
  1847. 1:00:07had a nice meal. I got beer as much as I
  1848. 1:00:09wanted to and I'm pleased with the
  1849. 1:00:10receipt.
  1850. 1:00:12>> The kind of places that you can pay for
  1851. 1:00:13the group and not sweat it out. Yeah,
  1852. 1:00:16>> maybe a little more expensive down there
  1853. 1:00:17by the Bay, but New Orleans is still
  1854. 1:00:19awesome. If you guys do make it down
  1855. 1:00:20there, make sure you pay your respects
  1856. 1:00:22to our GOAT Sigman Bloom and the rest of
  1857. 1:00:24New Orleans natives. But Johnny
  1858. 1:00:26Football, fantastic stuff at notJ Dagel
  1859. 1:00:29on Twitter. I see you still haven't
  1860. 1:00:30found a way to get the actual Jay Dagel
  1861. 1:00:32Twitter handle there. I appreciate
  1862. 1:00:34holding out. Obviously, you and the
  1863. 1:00:36entire established run team doing some
  1864. 1:00:38sweet stuff, man. Hell yeah.
  1865. 1:00:40>> I appreciate it. Thank you. And again,
  1866. 1:00:42everything's coming out at establish.com
  1867. 1:00:44right now. I've taken over all the team
  1868. 1:00:46previews, which will all be posted by
  1869. 1:00:47the time training camps open Saturday
  1870. 1:00:50because it's the time of the year where
  1871. 1:00:51everyone is tuning back in and listening
  1872. 1:00:54to this show.
  1873. 1:00:56>> We appreciate you guys listening in to
  1874. 1:00:58this show. If you like the show, please
  1875. 1:00:59like the show. Make sure you guys go
  1876. 1:01:00support all of John's work over at ETR
  1877. 1:01:02as well. So, thank you guys again.
  1878. 1:01:04training camp on the way. We'll be back
  1879. 1:01:06next week with some wide receiver
  1880. 1:01:08content, a little bit of tight end DST
  1881. 1:01:09stuff after that, and then strictly
  1882. 1:01:11league wedding hopefully content as we
  1883. 1:01:14get you guys into August and get you
  1884. 1:01:16ready. So, appreciate you guys again for
  1885. 1:01:17John. I'm Ian. Thanks again for tuning
  1886. 1:01:19in. Until next time, take care
  1887. 1:01:20everybody.

About this transcript

This page contains the full transcript of 10 most important running back questions in fantasy football with ETR's John Daigle by Fantasy Football with Ian Hartitz, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 13,263 words across 1,887 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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