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10+ Genius Draft Picks To Make In 2026 — Transcript

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0:00I genuinely believe that this video is
0:02the ultimate cheat code to starting your
0:04fantasy season this year on a winning
0:07streak. Last year, the people who
0:09drafted Roma Dunay, Amecha, Eggbuka,
0:11Quinton Johnson, they started the year
0:14winning. And if they traded those
0:15players at the right time, they probably
0:17just went ahead and won their whole damn
0:19league. Today, I am using deep dive
0:22research to identify over 20 players who
0:25I believe will get off to a hot start
0:27this year and will likely spike value to
0:30begin the season. You can win with them.
0:32You can trade them away, but these guys
0:34are the guys you want on your rosters in
0:36the first five weeks of the season. So,
0:38in today's research, I'm analyzing weeks
0:40one to five using Vegas lines from
0:42Yahoo, strength of schedule from Warren
0:45Sharp, which by the way, his strength of
0:47schedule tool looks at the quality of
0:49the opponents you face using efficiency
0:51metrics like EPA per play, success rate,
0:53and Vegas win totals. It doesn't just
0:55look at last year's record. That's a
0:57broken method. Uh, shout out to Warren
0:59Sharp. He's great. We're using ADP today
1:01and projections from ESPN's Mike Clay,
1:04so they're not even my projections.
1:05They're all completely unbiased in
1:08today's video. Um, all of today's
1:10research, by the way, is set to be
1:11available in my draft guide for 2026.
1:13You can get that by using the promo code
1:15land, getting the season pass for just
1:17$34 for the entire NFL fantasy football
1:20season. I'm going to go position by
1:21position and tell you what players to
1:23target. But before I do, give me 60
1:25seconds so I can tell you how this
1:27works. Because every pick in this video,
1:29it's asking the same exact questions,
1:31right? And there's two of those
1:32questions. Question number one, is the
1:34team going to score? And for that, we
1:37are using Vegas's implied team point
1:39totals from weeks 1 to five. And we're
1:42trying to identify what NFL teams are
1:45projected to score the most points to
1:47begin the NFL season. Okay. Why are we
1:50using Vegas? Well, because Vegas,
1:51there's literally billions of dollars.
1:54Sports books are sharp. Billions of
1:56dollars are funneling through these
1:57sports books each and every single week.
2:00I averaged out every team's first five
2:03weeks of their implied team point total.
2:05It's very simple. If a team is projected
2:07to score over 24 points per game, I gave
2:10them a hot start offense type of tag.
2:13And the second question we're asking is
2:15who are they playing? And this is where
2:16the Warren Sharp strength of schedule
2:18tool comes into play. The best part is
2:21it looks specifically at rushing
2:24matchups and passing matchups. So, for
2:26example, if we look at the Los Angeles
2:28Rams here, you can see top left, these
2:31are pass friendly slates of games. Top
2:34uh bottom right is run friendly slate of
2:36games. Bottom left, these are matchups
2:38that are brutal for everyone in the
2:40[clears throat] first five weeks. And
2:41top right, these are matchups that are
2:43great for both rushing and passing
2:46attacks. Again, we're looking at the uh
2:49pass defense strength of schedule weeks
2:50one to five and the rush defense uh from
2:54weeks one to five. So, for example, the
2:55Rams, let's put this in very simple word
2:58verbiage, okay? The Rams have the fourth
3:01easiest run uh schedule to start the
3:04season, weeks 1 to five. They also have
3:06the hardest passing defenses they'll
3:08face, number 32 from weeks one to five.
3:11So, every pick today, I am considering
3:13not just strength of schedule, but also
3:15for that specific position. And when
3:18both of those question marks are checked
3:19boxes, that's when we find the players
3:21that we're really looking for today. I
3:23mean, for example, with the
3:23quarterbacks, we've talked about Lamar
3:25Jackson all year. The best news, we've
3:27been in on him, but also he has an
3:29incredible start to the season. We'll
3:32talk about that more uh as we get
3:34through today's video. There'll be two
3:36kind of picks for each category, a smash
3:38pick and a sleeper pick. Let's start off
3:40with the running backs. Now, first
3:42player we'll talk about here is Mr.
3:44Durka Derka Derek Henry. The Baltimore
3:47Ravens through the first five weeks
3:49currently have the highest projected
3:52team implied point total. They're
3:54projected to score 27.1
3:58points per game. 27.1 points per game,
4:02the highest in the entire NFL. And when
4:04we look at that list of running backs
4:05that we're targeting, obviously we see
4:07Derrick Henry, but we also see that he
4:09has the 10th easiest uh matchups against
4:13run defenses to start the year. So, not
4:15only is does his team have the highest
4:17implied team point total to start the
4:18year, he also has top 10 matchups.
4:21Overall, this defense uh sorry, this
4:23offense is facing the fourth easiest
4:25schedule. When you look at some of these
4:27matchups, I mean, some of them are
4:28absolute smashes on the ground like
4:30Dallas in week three, the Falcons in
4:33week five, you got the Titans there, you
4:34got the Saints there. By far the best
4:36September offense in football is
4:39probably going to be the Baltimore
4:40Ravens. They're going to be a theme on
4:42today's video. Second running back I
4:43think is going to start off absolutely
4:45smashing is Kairen Williams. The Los
4:48Angeles Rams are currently third in
4:51projected team points per game. They're
4:54projected for 26.1 points per game.
4:56Again, that is through Vegas. That's not
4:58me making that up. That is Vegas Lines.
5:00And when we when we look at a team like
5:02the Los Angeles Rams, we talked about
5:04this earlier, but they are 32nd against
5:07the pass and fourth against the run to
5:10start the year. They had the most
5:11difficult pass evens to start the year.
5:13They've got the Broncos in week three,
5:15the Eagles in week four, the Bills in
5:18week five. I'm not telling you to like
5:20avoid a Matthew Stafford or a Puka
5:23Nakua, but maybe Matthew Stafford starts
5:25off a little bit slower. And in the
5:27opposite, you're going to see a guy like
5:29Kyron Williams start off really hot.
5:31They've got San Francisco, the Giants,
5:34the Bills, the Eagles. These are all
5:36teams that you're typically wanting to
5:37run against. These could all be
5:39shootouts, but specifically you might be
5:41funneling your attack on the ground
5:43rather than through the air. So Kyron
5:45Williams could be an absolute steal
5:46again at ADP. Let's go to the Seattle
5:48Seahawks. Now the Seahawks are a team
5:51when you look at our implied team point
5:52total. They are projected to be top
5:54eight in football at 25 a.5 points per
5:57game. They've got some really high
5:59projected points uh in like week two
6:01with over 27, week five with over 26.
6:05And you look at a team like the Seattle
6:07Seahawks and we see them at the top
6:09right of these charts, right? That's
6:11because they are a great matchup across
6:14the board. They have the fifth best
6:16rushing schedule and the third best
6:18schedule through the air. Look at some
6:20of the defenses that they're facing on
6:22the ground. The Cardinals, the
6:24Commanders, the 49ers, the Chargers. I
6:27mean, this is a dream schedule to open
6:30the season. I don't know how you could
6:31have wished for a better better schedule
6:33than this. It's his backfield for the
6:35entirety of September. I know he's a
6:38rookie, but Zack Charbanet will not be
6:39back by that time. He's a round five
6:41pick. Nobrainer. If you have, you know,
6:44maybe you need a second running back in
6:45the fifth round, to me, Jaren Price is
6:48going to be off to a really hot start.
6:49And because he's a rookie, if he does
6:51that early, people could be even higher
6:53on him as the season begins. Okay, let's
6:56go to the Chicago Bears. Specifically,
6:59we're going to shout out DeAndre Swift.
7:01The Chicago Bears currently projected
7:02for about 24.6 points per game. They
7:06have a couple big games on the schedule
7:08like week four where they're projected
7:09for over 27 points. Still crazy that the
7:12Ravens are projected for over 27 points
7:14the entire stretch, but Chicago could
7:17come off to a really hot start as a
7:19offense. Now, they actually have a tough
7:21start to the year through the air. They
7:24have the 23rd most difficult schedule uh
7:26when you look at their passing attack.
7:28defenses like the Vikings, the Eagles,
7:30the Panthers, who you typically want to
7:32run on, you don't want to throw on. And
7:34then you look at the Chicago Bears right
7:36now. You can see them at the bottom
7:38right of your screen. Again, a
7:39runfriendly straight uh slate to start
7:41the year. They have the 12th easiest
7:44schedule on the ground, the 23rd most
7:46difficult schedule through the air. I
7:47mean, it's not that hard to imagine the
7:49Chicago Bears and Ben Johnson funneling
7:52their defense, sorry, their offense
7:54through the rushing attack with DeAndre
7:56Swift. This takes me to my sleepers
7:58because I also believe that Kyle Manongi
8:00is a great sleeper pick. If they're
8:02going to be in control of these games
8:03versus the Jets versus the Panthers,
8:06then there's totally a possibility that
8:08Kyle Bongai could be a legitimate flex
8:10to start the year. He has the same, you
8:13know, offensive environment that a
8:15DeAndre Swift does. Our our second
8:17sleeper, a team that we've talked about
8:19before, the Los Angeles Rams. Again, the
8:22Rams, same offense as Kron Williams.
8:24Fourth easiest run defense to start the
8:27the year according to Warren Sharp's
8:28strength the schedule tool. Again, look
8:30at that. It's the Niners. It's the
8:32Giants. It's the Bills. And if anything
8:34happens to Kairen, you have a league
8:36winner. If nothing happens, then there's
8:38potential for Blake Cororm and Kairen
8:41Williams to both get plenty of work.
8:42Now, I saved a unique one for last.
8:45We're specifically going to talk about
8:47the handcuff in Detroit. I believe that
8:50Isaiah Pacheco is one of the more
8:52underrated handcuffs in fantasy football
8:54this year. Now, Detroit is currently
8:58second in total um points projected
9:01through the first five weeks. They're
9:03right behind the Baltimore Ravens. And
9:05when you look at, you know, what Vegas
9:07expects versus what like even a Mike
9:10Clay would project for a team like this,
9:12you're going to see Detroit, they're at
9:13the top right. Right now, they have the
9:16second easiest schedule against uh the
9:18rush. They have the 11th easiest
9:20schedule against the passing attack. If
9:22you're a Gibbs guy, this graphic clearly
9:24works well for you as well. But they've
9:26got a great start of the SK of the
9:28season to their schedule. And there's
9:31chance that the David Montgomery role
9:33might still be alive and well with one
9:35Isaiah Pacheco. He's one of the last
9:36picks you can make in your draft. Why
9:38not go target him? Okay, let's go to the
9:40wide receiver section here. All right.
9:43And what we're going to be looking at
9:44here, remember at the bottom right of
9:46this graph, we talked about how these
9:47are run friendly slates to start the
9:49season. We look, we're looking at weeks
9:52one to five with strength of schedule.
9:54Well, at the top left, this is where
9:55we're going to find a lot more of our
9:57pass friendly slates, teams that might
10:00be uh more enticed to throw the ball to
10:03start the year, right? Teams that Vegas
10:06expect to score a lot of points, but it
10:08might be through the air. My first smash
10:10here is very easily going to be a player
10:13that I've pounded the table for a lot
10:15this off seasonason. That is Z Flowers.
10:17Like we said, Baltimore. You're going to
10:19see them a lot in today's video. I'm
10:21targeting all of my Baltimore Ravens,
10:23but no one is projected to score more
10:25points through five weeks than the
10:27Baltimore Ravens. And they currently
10:29face the fourth easiest passing defenses
10:32on average in the league. Again,
10:34according to Warren Sharp, you can see
10:36some of these cupcake matchups like the
10:38Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans,
10:40and this is one of those teams, you
10:43know, when you look at again that pass
10:44versus run slate, this is just one of
10:46those teams in Baltimore where across
10:49the board, it's it's an incredible
10:51offense to target. Number four passing
10:53defense, uh number 10 versus rushing
10:55defenses. They are just an incredible
10:57offense to target. Not only does Vegas
11:00believe so, but also Warren Sharp
11:01believe so. Second receiver that we are
11:03going to target here is Mr. Jameson
11:06Williams. He's currently remember ended
11:08the year from weeks after their bye-week
11:11from week like nine onwards was a top 12
11:13fantasy football wide receiver. We're
11:16looking at Detroit again second and in
11:18projected points scored uh by any team.
11:21Only Baltimore scores more. You've got
11:23uh the 53rd pick off the board right
11:26now. Jameson Williams a top 20 receiver
11:29season is likely ahead of him. I don't
11:31see why you wouldn't go out there and
11:32and and and target a guy like Jameson
11:35Williams. We look at the Detroit Lions
11:37this year. They are projected for the
11:40first five weeks, the second easiest
11:42schedule against the run, and the 11th
11:45easiest schedule against the pass. Some
11:47juicy matchups to start the year, right?
11:49Like the Jets in week three, the
11:51Cardinals in week five. I mean, a lot of
11:53these games, they're probably going to
11:55be up and there will be plenty of
11:56opportunities to target Jameson Williams
11:58deep down the field. All right, this
12:00next one a lot of you guys hate, but I
12:02really think you're undervaluing him.
12:03That is Rasheed Rice. The Chiefs are
12:06currently projected to score 24.8 points
12:08per game. Something to note, they do
12:10have a by-week in week five. So, they're
12:12one of those early by-eek teams. But
12:15when you look at a team like the Kansas
12:16City Chiefs, this is a team where when
12:19we look specifically at Warren Sharp's
12:20strength of schedule for uh positional
12:23groups, this is where you're
12:24specifically going to see maybe that
12:26payoff the most because the Chiefs have
12:29the 28th most difficult schedule against
12:31the run, but the ninth easiest schedule
12:34against the passing attack. Uh, and you
12:38look at some of these matchups on the
12:40ground, like the Denver Broncos, the
12:43Colts, uh, even the Raiders weren't a
12:45great matchup on the ground last year.
12:47The passing game runs through Rashi
12:50Rice, and they're probably going to be
12:51forced to pass the ball a lot. Probably
12:54my favorite, you know, outcome from this
12:57video was giving me a reason to be even
13:00more in on a name like Christian Watson
13:02this year. Christian Watson's the name I
13:05want a lot of stock of. The Green Bay
13:07Packers are projected for 25.3
13:11or so points per game right there by the
13:13Seahawks, the Chiefs, the Bears, they
13:16should have a great start to the season.
13:18And when we look at a name like a
13:21Christian Watson, okay, I built out this
13:23little table. Again, you'll be able to
13:25find it in my draft guide. It'll be
13:26there very, very soon. We're looking at
13:28hot startersh here. Okay, Christian
13:31Watson, when you sort by ADP and when
13:33you sort by wide receiver ones who are
13:35on really good offenses that were that's
13:36what we're looking at. All these
13:38offenses that you're looking at here in
13:39this hot starter list, they're all good
13:40offenses project for a high amount of
13:42points per game that Vegas, you know,
13:44looks on favorably. And when we sort by
13:47wide receiver ones coming off the board,
13:48you will see Christian Watson by far the
13:51cheapest wide receiver one of any
13:53offense that has a positive environment.
13:56They also are facing the sixth easiest
13:58passing defenses in the first five
14:00weeks. Christian Watson, it's an
14:02absolute cupcake schedule, ladies and
14:03gentlemen. We've got the Jets, the
14:05Falcons, the Bucks, the Bears. This is a
14:08dream schedule to open up for Christian
14:10Watson. He's super cheap in your draft,
14:1366th overall in ADP. Go target Christian
14:17Watson. Now, because we're talking about
14:19Christian Watson, the obvious sleepers
14:21here who are in the same exact scenario
14:23would be your Jaden Reeds of the world,
14:25your Matthew Golden of the world, who
14:27are both featured in today's video as
14:29well. If you want to take on those shot
14:30a shot on those guys deep down your
14:32boards, hey, the early season schedule
14:34says you might get a decent return from
14:36those guys straight away. Maybe they
14:38turn into some trade bait for you. We
14:40also talked about Rishi Rice. Again,
14:42same case for him with um Xavier Worthy.
14:46And one of my other favorite takeaways
14:49from today's video absolutely has to be
14:52Rasheed Shahed. I mean, I have not been
14:54big on Rashid Shahed. Recently, I've
14:56heard a lot of rumors that they are
14:57heavily going to get him more involved
14:59through the air, having him run more
15:01complex routes in this offense. You
15:03know, they traded for him last year,
15:05didn't use him much as a receiving
15:06threat, more as a special teams guy. But
15:09Seattle, remember, projected to score
15:1125.4 4.5 points per game, top eight in
15:14September. And when we look at a team
15:17like the Seattle Seahawks, they are one
15:19of these schedules where you want to
15:21target it across the board, right? They
15:23are soft everywhere versus the run top
15:26five matchups, right? Versus the pass
15:29top three schedule amongst all wide
15:31receivers. I mean, this is absolutely a
15:34schedule I want to see for my wide
15:36receiver, right? Like the Cardinals, the
15:38Commanders, the 49ers. If Rasheed Shahid
15:42is going to be a big part big part of
15:43their offense, you might find that out
15:45earlier than you even anticipated. All
15:47right, let's go to the quarterback spot
15:49here. And I really think if you're a
15:51Jackson Dart guy, you're going to love
15:53this video because all the research to
15:55start the year suggests that Jackson
15:57Dart could be starting off on a heater.
15:59Now, here's the thing. Vegas does not
16:01like the Giants. Right now they have the
16:03Giants right around 18th in imply team
16:07point totals uh per game about 23 points
16:10per game. So they're not exactly in love
16:13with Jackson Dart per se. I understand
16:15why they feel that way but when you look
16:18at the schedule to start the year the
16:20Giants man I mean they have the number
16:23one schedule for quarterbacks to start
16:25the year when you're looking at like
16:27efficiency uh that of the defenses that
16:29you're facing. They've also got the
16:31third best uh schedule from rushing
16:34defenses. But look at this. They got the
16:36Cowboys in week one, the Titans, the
16:40Cardinals, the Commanders. The only
16:42matchup you're not dreaming about is
16:44that Rams matchup where he's going to
16:45face Miles Garrett in week number two.
16:48But man, I'm telling y'all, no Malik
16:51Neighbors is tough, but this dude could
16:53easily be a top three scoring
16:55quarterback through the first five
16:57weeks. You can sell high on him. you can
16:59believe in him. Maybe he does that
17:01without Malik Neighbors and Neighbors is
17:02coming back. Who knows what's capable
17:05with your roster. Okay, we're also going
17:07to talk about Dak Prescott here. The
17:10Dallas Cowboys, of course, a top four
17:12projected offense to start the year.
17:13Tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for
17:15that position. Only the Rams, Lions, and
17:18the Baltimore Ravens are projected to
17:20score more points per game through the
17:22first five weeks. And when we look at
17:25the specifically through the air, you'll
17:27see the Dallas Cowboys as one of these
17:29teams who are more leaning towards a
17:32pass friendly slate to begin the season.
17:34They have a top 10 matchup against
17:36passing defenses, but the 17th uh ranked
17:40matchup against the rushing defenses
17:42through the first five weeks. You've got
17:44CD Lamb, you've got George Pickkins, the
17:46schedule says you might be looking to
17:47throw the ball. Dak Prescott's a target
17:49for us. How about Lamar Jackson? We
17:51talked about it all. Uh, you know, every
17:54Raven we are drafting. Lamar Jackson is
17:56not a discount. He is the cheapest that
17:58a quarterback 2 has ever been in fantasy
18:00football drafts in the last 11 years.
18:04All of the early season schedule says
18:06that he's going to be an absolute smash.
18:07There's no reason why you wouldn't go
18:09out there and absolutely target a Lamar
18:12Jackson. Again, don't forget Baltimore
18:14Ravens to start the year. fourth best
18:16passing uh schedule against passing
18:18defenses, excuse me, and top 10 against
18:21the run. All right, let's go to some
18:23sleepers. Jared Goff, we talked about
18:24how much we loved uh this Jameson
18:27Williams, for example. We talked about
18:28Isaiah Pacheco. 11th e easiest schedule
18:31against the pass. And if we all love all
18:34those weapons, we should probably love
18:35Jared Goff. Another one I want to talk
18:36about here is Kyler Murray. Uh Vegas
18:39doesn't love the Minnesota Vikings, but
18:42they do have the fifth easiest schedule
18:44against uh through the air, excuse me.
18:47They're facing defenses like the Chicago
18:49Bears, the Tampa Bay Bucks, the Miami
18:51Dolphins. I would not be surprised if
18:54Kyler Murray gets off on an absolute
18:55heater. And in superlex leagues alone,
18:59Sam Darnold is probably a really good
19:01target at the back end of your draft.
19:03They are top five across the board both
19:05on the ground and through the air when
19:07they're looking at defenses they're
19:08facing through the first five weeks.
19:10Okay, let's quickly go through the tight
19:12end position. Uh we are going to tucker
19:14uh target Tucker Craft for a lot of the
19:16same reasons that we talked about with
19:18uh Matthew Golden earlier with Christian
19:20Watson. We are going to target Sam
19:22Laaporta. Again, another team that's
19:24projected to score a ton of points. 11th
19:26easiest pass defense uh schedule through
19:28the year. It's a good price on Leaporta.
19:31He could start off hot on the sleeper
19:33section. We're gonna do one more
19:35Baltimore Raven in today's video. Mark
19:37Andrews. He's a huge discounted uh tight
19:40end. No more Isaiah Likely. And speaking
19:42of Isaiah Likely, the New York Giants,
19:45like we said, they currently have the
19:47best schedule through the air. And if
19:49Malik Neighbors is not available, who
19:52are they going to throw the ball to?
19:53Isaiah likely, the brand new featured
19:55weapon who gets talked up in every
19:57single, you know, beat writers report
19:59about preseason. I mean, remember that
20:01schedule. The Cowboys, the Titans, the
20:03Cardinals, the Commanders. Why? If if
20:06you're going to go late tight end,
20:10Isaiah Likely should definitely be one
20:12of those guys that you target to end
20:15your draft. Okay, guys. What do you
20:16think about the video? I know it's a
20:18little bit different than normal. Do you
20:19guys like these deep dive research type
20:20of videos or do you want me to do more
20:22player takes? Do me a favor, hit that
20:24like button, show some love. Subscribe
20:25if you haven't yet. I'm on the road to
20:27100K. With your help, I know we can get
20:29there. and I'll see you guys in the next
20:31video. Nothing but love.
20:32>> This is Chad.
20:35[music]
20:36Last year, Chad joined his friend's
20:38fantasy football league for the first
20:40time. [music]
20:42He drafted the worst team possible and
20:44finished last place.
20:47A year later, [music] he lost his job,
20:50his wife left him, and his kids no
20:53longer respected him. Don't be like
20:56Chad. [music] Get the season pass for
20:58just $34 with the promo code land.
21:03Draft day is [music] never been so easy.

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