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【悲報】受注は過去最高、株価は半値。ファナックと安川電機、買うなら1つだけ【買う日も公開！】 — Transcript

by IRサクッとAI解説　株初心者のための銘柄紹介 · 3,449 words · 410 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Machine-tool orders have hit an all-time
0:03high since statistics began in 1988.
0:07Yet the share prices of Japan’s leading machine-tool
0:11and robotics companies have fallen by nearly half.
0:16At first glance, one of those facts must be false.
0:20But both are true.
0:22And this contradiction has a clear end date.
0:27In fact, it’s already on the calendar.
0:31In this video, I’ll give you that date.
0:34Today, we’re taking a close look at FANUC and Yaskawa Electric.
0:39By the end, you’ll know three things.
0:42First, why the share prices have been cut in half.
0:46One number explains it.
0:49Second, which of the two I’d choose if I could buy only one today.
0:54And third, when to buy.
0:57I’ll give you a checklist with dates.
1:01Save a screenshot of that last part. It’s coming near the end.
1:07Let’s start with the facts.
1:09FANUC reached its all-time high of ¥8,880 on May 14. It closed
1:16at ¥5,704 on October 30, down more than 30% from the high.
1:23Yaskawa Electric has had an even rougher ride. From
1:29its June high of ¥7,915, it’s now at ¥3,992—almost
1:34half. On October 23, it briefly fell to ¥3,775.
1:39Yaskawa alone has lost nearly ¥1 trillion in market value.
1:44The headlines might make you think the AI boom is over,
1:47or that Japan’s robotics companies are in trouble.
1:50But the financial statements and industry
1:53data tell a very different story.
1:56The Japan Machine Tool Builders’ Association reported September
2:02machine-tool orders of ¥223.2 billion, up 60% from a year
2:07earlier. That was the highest monthly total since records began.
2:13Double-digit growth has continued for
2:2013 straight months.
2:24Orders from January through September are already close
2:26to ¥1.67 trillion, exceeding the full-year total of
2:28about ¥1.60 trillion for 2025 in just nine months.
2:30This is not a case of share prices falling because business is weak.
2:35So who is buying?
2:38Domestic demand is strong, up more than 40%. Overseas demand is growing
2:43even faster. China and the rest of Asia are the main drivers, and North
2:47American orders topped ¥50 billion in a single month for the first time.
2:52Factories around the world are scrambling to buy Japanese machine tools.
2:58Robotics orders are showing a similar trend.
3:00The Japan Robot Association says orders from April
3:05through June exceeded ¥310 billion, up 40% year on year.
3:10That made three consecutive quarters of record-high orders.
3:14But there’s an interesting detail.
3:18Domestic demand is almost flat.
3:19Exports are driving growth, with robots used to make electronic
3:23components and semiconductors selling in China, Thailand, and Vietnam.
3:28So it’s not simply that “robots are selling.” Robots
3:32that make the components for AI are selling across Asia.
3:36That’s a clue to today’s story.
3:39Let’s open FANUC’s results.
3:43Orders from July through September were about ¥300
3:46billion, nearly 50% higher than a year earlier.
3:49Breaking them down by division makes the main driver clear.
3:54The robotics division grew a little
3:57over 10%—solid, but not extraordinary.
4:00The FA division, by contrast, reached 2.3 times its level a year ago.
4:05FA means CNC, the brains of a machine tool, and servomotors,
4:10which move the machine. FANUC’s hottest product right now isn’t
4:15a robot. It’s the brain inside the machines that make robots.
4:20By region, orders in China rose about 80%,
4:24while Asia outside China more than doubled.
4:28What’s happening in China?
4:31FANUC wrote this in its earnings materials:
4:35“In China, AI data centers, semiconductor-related demand, machining
4:40of humanoid-robot parts, and NEVs are driving the market.”
4:45Machining parts for humanoid robots.
4:47That’s not my interpretation; it’s the company’s own wording.
4:52This is where we get to the heart of today’s story.
4:55Picture the inside of a humanoid robot: metal housings around
5:00its joints, gear-reducer cases, and plates that hold its motors
5:06in place. All of them are cut from solid blocks of metal.
5:10So when a Chinese humanoid-robot startup begins
5:14mass production, what will it buy first?
5:17Not robots.
5:19Machine tools to cut the parts.
5:21During the 1849 Gold Rush, the biggest
5:24winners weren’t the people digging for gold.
5:28They were the ones selling picks and jeans.
5:31Levi Strauss built a fortune without mining a single nugget.
5:36FANUC is the Levi’s of today’s AI gold rush.
5:40About half of the world’s machine tools run on FANUC control systems.
5:45Whether Tesla wins or a Chinese startup wins, someone
5:49has to machine the parts to build the robots.
5:53FANUC is positioned to benefit whichever player comes out on top.
5:56Of course, nothing lasts forever.
6:00Let’s think of orders in three layers.
6:03At the base are structural sources of demand that could
6:07last three to five years: AI data centers, semiconductors,
6:12defense and aerospace, and labor shortages.
6:15In the middle are demand cycles that can swing over one or two
6:18years, such as China’s EV market and semiconductor inventories.
6:22At the top are temporary bursts of demand
6:24that can fade within a few months.
6:26The volume of orders is real.
6:31But the growth rate is likely to cool from here.
6:34So if business is this strong, why have the share prices nearly halved?
6:39The answer comes down to one number.
6:43A share price is the earnings per share multiplied by
6:45the valuation multiple the market is willing to pay.
6:48That multiple is called the price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E.
6:53When a share price falls, either earnings
6:55have declined or the multiple has come down.
6:57That’s it.
7:00Let’s check FANUC.
7:02Just before its earnings upgrade, its P/E was about 26.
7:07That implies forecast earnings of roughly ¥210 per share.
7:13Divide the ¥8,880 peak price by that figure,
7:17and you get about 42 times earnings.
7:19After the upgrade, forecast earnings rose to around ¥250 per share.
7:25Today, the P/E is 23.
7:28Earnings went up.
7:30Only the multiple went down.
7:32Yaskawa followed the same pattern: about 43 times
7:35earnings at its peak, versus roughly 22 today.
7:38The business didn’t deteriorate; the market reset its valuation.
7:43That’s the most important number in this video.
7:47A house is a useful way to picture it.
7:50The share prices boosted by the AI boom were like a two-story house.
7:55The first floor was the real business: orders rising with AI demand.
7:58The second floor was a high valuation built
8:01on the assumption of low interest rates.
8:03The first-floor pillars have actually grown stronger.
8:07Orders are at record levels.
8:09But the second-floor floorboards gave way.
8:12It makes sense to look at the pillars and say the shares are cheap.
8:15But buying without understanding why
8:17the second floor collapsed is risky.
8:20Let’s look at what caused it.
8:22There were three culprits.
8:24First, Japanese interest rates. On September 1, the yield on Japan’s
8:2910-year government bond briefly reached
8:323%, its highest level in 30 years.
8:34Here’s something useful to understand: why do growth
8:38stocks tend to sell off first when rates rise?
8:42Much of a growth company’s profits are
8:44expected next year or the year after.
8:47When rates rise, the value today of a future ¥1 million falls.
8:53The technical term is the “discount rate.” Put simply,
8:55profits further in the future get discounted more heavily.
8:59That’s why growth stocks, whose profits
9:01lie further ahead, are often hit first.
9:04Second, U.S. interest rates.
9:06On September 14, the U.S.
9:1210-year Treasury yield topped 5%, its highest level since October 2023.
9:15Third was the “CoreWeave shock” on October 15.
9:20U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected, and
9:24bonds issued by AI cloud company CoreWeave plunged.
9:27Worries spread that AI investment might
9:34never pay off.
9:37The Nikkei fell 3,318 points that day,
9:38its third-largest point drop on record.
9:39FANUC and Yaskawa were swept into the AI-stock sell-off,
9:43even though their own operating results weren’t the cause.
9:48But there’s one change people may be overlooking.
9:52The Japanese long-term interest rate that helped break
9:57the second floor has come down from 3% to below 2.8%.
10:01At one point, it was at its lowest level in about three months.
10:05If rates broke the floor, then a calmer
10:08rate environment could let it be rebuilt.
10:11Keep that in mind; it matters when we get to “when to buy.”
10:15If you’re thinking, “So should I buy right now?”—hold on.
10:20There’s still an invisible weight sitting above the share price.
10:24What’s happening to these two companies isn’t one contradiction.
10:28Three different kinds of mismatch have piled up.
10:31First, the mismatch between business performance and share prices.
10:35That was the valuation reset we just
10:37discussed; at its core, it’s market sentiment.
10:40This one is already in its late stages.
10:42Second, the mismatch between orders and profits.
10:46That comes from internal operations, mainly at Yaskawa.
10:51Third, the mismatch between share prices and supply and demand.
10:55That comes from investors who are reluctant to sell at a loss.
10:59Because the causes are different, they will resolve at different times.
11:03Blend them together and you get conspiracy theories about
11:06how strong results “shouldn’t” come with falling prices.
11:09Separate them, and you can analyze them.
11:12Let’s look at the second mismatch.
11:15Yaskawa’s orders in the quarter through July rose
11:18nearly 40% year on year, a quarterly record.
11:21Yet the company cut its operating-profit forecast for
11:26this fiscal year from ¥60 billion to ¥57.5 billion.
11:30What happened?
11:32The company stumbled during a switch to a new core internal system.
11:36Production was supposed to speed up after the change
11:39in May, but system trouble slowed it instead.
11:43Costs from business restructuring in Europe added to the pressure.
11:47President Ogasawara said at a press conference that
11:50“production fell because things didn’t go quite as planned.”
11:53So the problem isn’t demand.
11:56The orders are there.
11:57The factory is backed up.
11:59In investing, this is called a backlog.
12:04Think of water held behind a dam: once
12:07the outlet is fixed, it can flow quickly.
12:10But until the numbers show the problem
12:13is fixed, the market won’t believe it.
12:16Let’s use the numbers to see how big the challenge is.
12:19Against the full-year operating-profit target of ¥57.5
12:23billion, Yaskawa earned ¥22.1 billion in the first half,
12:27still short of 40%. To make the rest in the second half,
12:31it needs to earn at 1.6 times the first-half pace.
12:35There is room to improve, too.
12:38Yaskawa’s operating margin is about 10%, while FANUC’s is over 20%.
12:43That gap reflects a difference in current performance,
12:45but it also shows how much room Yaskawa has to improve.
12:48We’ll get the answer in the results due in early January.
12:54That date will appear again on our calendar later.
12:56Now for the third mismatch—the part people know least about.
13:01The balance of shares bought with
13:03borrowed money is called margin buying.
13:06As of October 23, FANUC had about 5 million shares
13:09in margin buying, and Yaskawa about 6.5 million.
13:13Both balances were up from the previous week.
13:15When a share price is cut in half, investors usually
13:17sell to limit their losses, and margin balances fall.
13:19But they haven’t fallen.
13:20They’ve risen.
13:22Why? Many investors kept buying on the way down, thinking, “Orders are
13:26at a record high.” When paper losses reach 20% or 30%, people often
13:31hold on instead of selling. Behavioral economics calls this loss-aversion
13:35bias. The pain of a loss can feel twice as strong as the pleasure
13:39of an equivalent gain. That makes it hard to sell when you should.
13:44Standard margin trades have a six-month repayment deadline.
13:48Positions built up in September and October
13:51will reach that deadline next March and April.
13:54Let me be precise, because this is often misunderstood: the deadline
13:57doesn’t automatically trigger forced selling like a time bomb. Instead,
14:00if the share price recovers, some investors may sell just to get
14:03out at break-even. It’s an overhang that can cap gains, not a bomb.
14:06That overhang is about five times heavier for Yaskawa than for FANUC.
14:10It’s one reason Yaskawa’s share price fell harder.
14:13We’ve now laid out all the evidence.
14:16Let’s make the call.
14:18Let’s look at four cards that show FANUC’s strengths.
14:22Card one: two consecutive earnings upgrades. Net profit is
14:27forecast at ¥228.3 billion, an all-time high for the first
14:32time in 12 years. That’s above market expectations, and
14:36revenue is expected to top ¥1 trillion for the first time.
14:41Card two: margins. FANUC’s operating margin was 26% from July through
14:48September alone. That’s an extraordinary level for
14:53a manufacturer. Toyota’s operating margin is about
14:588%; FANUC’s is more than three times higher.
15:02Card three: share buybacks. FANUC had just finished buying
15:06¥50 billion of its own shares in September when it set another
15:11¥50 billion buyback limit in October. That’s ¥100 billion
15:15in a year. Profits are rising while the share count falls,
15:19giving earnings per share a boost from both directions.
15:23And card four is the hidden trump card.
15:28For the second half, FANUC has planned on
15:31an exchange rate of ¥150 to the dollar.
15:33The first-half average was about ¥159.
15:37That’s ¥9 weaker than the company’s assumption.
15:42If the yen stays weak, there’s room for a third earnings upgrade.
15:47Let me take a moment to share the history of these two companies.
15:51FANUC was born in 1972 when it spun off from Fujitsu. Its name comes
15:56from “Fuji Automatic NUmerical Control.” At its factory in Oshino,
16:02Yamanashi, near Mount Fuji, yellow robots assemble other robots.
16:08FANUC is estimated to control about half of the global CNC market.
16:13Yaskawa Electric was founded in Fukuoka in 1915 as a
16:18motor maker for coal mines. The company coined the word
16:23“mechatronics.” It leads the world in AC servo motors.
16:27A company that began making motors for coal mines
16:31111 years ago now makes the muscles of AI robots.
16:35A company that started as an independent numerical-control business 54
16:39years ago now supplies the brains that
16:41run half of the world’s factories.
16:43America may hold the brains of AI.
16:47But Japan holds the “body” that carries out those
16:50commands: the brains and muscles of the factory.
16:54No matter how smart AI gets, making physical
16:56things still requires cutting material.
16:59That structure won’t disappear when the boom fades.
17:02If the humanoid-robot era arrives, where will the profits go?
17:06There are three routes.
17:09First, cutting the parts.
17:12That’s FANUC’s stronghold.
17:14Second, the production lines that assemble and inspect robots.
17:18Yaskawa’s industrial robots are strong here.
17:21Third, the servomotors that move a robot’s joints.
17:26That’s Yaskawa’s home turf.
17:28But the timing differs. In October, Tesla announced that production
17:33of Optimus had begun. The company described it as an early production
17:38stage, with external shipments planned for the end of 2027.
17:422026 isn’t the year of mass production; it’s the year
17:46investment in equipment for mass production begins.
17:50That’s why machine tools get the first orders.
17:53The full profit contribution from servomotors comes later.
17:57And in China, low-cost servomotors and robots are competing on price.
18:02We should view that as competition, not just a dream.
18:06Let’s also check what analysts think.
18:08The average analyst price target for FANUC is about
18:12¥7,200, roughly 26% above its current share price.
18:16The moves during earnings week are interesting.
18:20Iwai Cosmo, which had been bullish,
18:23cut its target from ¥7,500 to ¥6,400.
18:27Meanwhile, a major U.S. brokerage that still recommends
18:32selling raised its target from ¥4,600 to ¥4,900.
18:36The bulls lowered their targets, and the bears raised theirs. There’s
18:40a market saying that a bottom may be near when the pessimists give
18:44up. Something similar is happening here. When bearish analysts raise
18:48their targets, it can signal that downside worries are easing.
18:52For Yaskawa, the average target from 18
18:54analysts is about ¥6,000—roughly 50% upside.
18:57On the numbers alone, Yaskawa looks more attractive.
19:01But Goldman Sachs downgraded it to “Hold” on October 20, and
19:06JPMorgan also rates it “Hold,” with a new target of ¥4,800.
19:11Expectations are high, but even the professionals are still uncertain.
19:17Let’s put them side by side.
19:19By P/E alone, Yaskawa is slightly cheaper. But operating margins are
19:24over 20% versus about 10%; one company raised its forecast while the
19:30other cut it; and their margin-buying overhangs are light versus heavy.
19:36If I had to choose just one right now, it would be FANUC.
19:40There are three reasons.
19:42First, it doesn’t have a company-specific operational problem.
19:46Second, the company itself is supporting
19:48its shares with ¥100 billion in buybacks.
19:50Third, its margin-buying overhang is about one-fifth of Yaskawa’s.
19:56That doesn’t mean Yaskawa is a bad company.
20:01It’s a company with water building up behind a dam.
20:04If the outlet is fixed, the stock could jump.
20:05So I’d keep Yaskawa as a conditional, higher-risk pick.
20:10The conditions are on the calendar coming up.
20:14Are you in the more defensive FANUC camp, or the more
20:17aggressive Yaskawa camp? Tell me in the comments.
20:20How much lower could FANUC go?
20:24Let’s use forecast earnings of about ¥250 per share.
20:30At 20 times earnings, the share price would be around ¥4,900.
20:35That’s close to the target from an analyst who recommends selling.
20:39At today’s 23 times, it’s around ¥5,700; at 25 times, around ¥6,150.
20:48That makes the ¥4,900 range a downside reference point, where
20:52a bearish analyst’s view overlaps with past valuation levels.
20:56Let’s look at timing, too.
21:00In the 2023 correction, FANUC fell a little over 30% from its
21:05high, bottomed after about four months, then rebounded 15%.
21:10This time, five and a half months have passed,
21:14and the decline is larger than in 2023.
21:17But in 2023, China’s economic stimulus
21:20provided a catalyst for a rebound.
21:23We haven’t seen that this time—at least not yet.
21:26So I wouldn’t buy everything at once.
21:30I’d buy in stages.
21:31Here’s the part I asked you to screenshot.
21:36There are four dates to remember.
21:39The plan is to buy one-third of the
21:41position each time a checkpoint is passed.
21:44Checkpoint one: mid-November, when October’s
21:47preliminary machine-tool order data is released.
21:50If growth stays above 30% year on year, the
21:54idea that September was a one-off fades.
21:58That’s when I’d buy the first third.
22:01Checkpoint two: margin-buying balances from December through January.
22:06Do FANUC’s holdings fall below 3.5 million
22:09shares and Yaskawa’s below 5 million?
22:11That would be the first sign that the overhang is starting to ease.
22:16Year-end tax-loss selling can also make balances fall more easily.
22:21Checkpoint three: January earnings.
22:23Yaskawa reports in early January, and FANUC in late January.
22:29Does FANUC deliver a third upgrade?
22:33Does Yaskawa’s cumulative operating profit reach ¥40 billion?
22:36That’s when I’d buy the second third.
22:41If Yaskawa clears ¥40 billion, I’d consider it
22:44as the higher-risk pick for the first time.
22:47Checkpoint four: April through June next year.
22:50Investment in equipment for humanoid robots starts showing
22:54up in sales, and orders and profits begin rising together.
22:57That’s when I’d buy the final third.
23:00To sum up: the bad news is close to being fully reflected, but
23:04the good news may take a little longer to move the share price.
23:09A rebound may be near.
23:10But it’s still too early.
23:11That’s today’s conclusion.
23:13One last important point: don’t trust a video that only tells a bullish
23:20story. I don’t. So let me be honest about what could derail this plan.
23:26If any of these three signals appear, I’d delay the plan by one stage.
23:32First, October machine-tool orders grow by less than 30%.
23:38Second, U.S. long-term interest rates
23:41start rising again into the 5% range.
23:43Third, margin-buying balances keep rising even after the new year.
23:48If that happens, I’d wait and allow for
23:50a possible fall into the ¥4,900 range.
23:52Waiting is a valid investment decision, too.
23:55As humanoid robots spread, demand will
23:58explode for the robots that build robots.
24:00The production lines won’t be assembled by humanoid robots.
24:05They’ll be built with industrial robots and machine tools.
24:08The biggest winner in a humanoid-robot boom may be
24:12a company that doesn’t make humanoid robots at all.
24:16The lesson of the Gold Rush is still the same 170 years
24:21later. Millions dug for gold, but there was only one
24:27Levi’s. FANUC is the Levi’s of the AI gold rush.
24:32Write those four dates on your calendar.
24:39That’s all for today.
24:40Investing means supporting companies as they grow. That
24:45growth can energize Japan, and the returns can come back
24:49to us. In an inflationary era, those returns can be even
24:53greater. Choose good companies, and realize the gains.
24:57We’ll keep explaining investment themes in plain language
25:01for everyone who wants to support Japan’s growth.
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25:07And tell me in the comments which Japanese
25:11stocks or themes you’re watching.
25:15In our membership, “Quick Investment Strategy Room,” I share analysis
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25:23along with investing mindsets that can help you navigate the
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This page contains the full transcript of 【悲報】受注は過去最高、株価は半値。ファナックと安川電機、買うなら1つだけ【買う日も公開！】 by IRサクッとAI解説　株初心者のための銘柄紹介, generated from the public captions YouTube serves with the video. The transcript has 3,449 words across 410 segments, with the original timestamps preserved so you can click any line to jump to that moment in the embedded player.

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