【要警戒】景気減速・インフレ低下から一転！？1月から9月のファンドマネージャー調査が示す反発リスクとは — Transcript

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1. 0:01The biggest tail risk has shifted from
2. 0:03the AI bubble to rising bond yields. In
3. 0:06the September fund manager survey, the
4. 0:08underweight position in bonds was a net
5. 0:10minus 48%. Voices are gradually
6. 0:12starting to be raised, warning of a
7. 0:14rise in long-term interest rates. Hello
8. 0:19everyone, this is Emori. On this
9. 0:20channel, I provide trend analysis and
10. 0:22investment insights, focusing mainly on
11. 0:23the U.S. market. I offer the materials
12. 0:25used in my videos exclusively to those
13. 0:26who register on my LINE account. You
14. 0:28can also receive an investment
15. 0:29simulation sheet and other benefits, so
16. 0:31please register via the link in the
17. 0:32description.
18. 0:33>> Today, we are discussing the fund
19. 0:35manager survey.
20. 0:36>> We have been doing this once every
21. 0:38month. We’ve been tracking the moves
22. 0:41of fund managers through our surveys
23. 0:43from June, July, August, and September,
24. 0:46but 2026 is already coming to an end.
25. 0:48These are the crucial final three
26. 0:50months of the year. Before that, I
27. 0:51thought it would be good to look back
28. 0:53at the period from January to September
29. 0:55. I’m sure everyone has forgotten by
30. 0:58now. And that includes me, too. So, I
31. 1:01want to look back at how things have
32. 1:03moved from January to September 2026,
33. 1:06and use those insights for our
34. 1:08investment strategies for October,
35. 1:10November, and December.
36. 1:12>> Therefore, today I’d like you to
37. 1:13explain the fund manager survey results
38. 1:15, including the moves of funds up to
39. 1:17September.
40. 1:18>> Yes.
41. 1:20>> Today, we will look back at the fund
42. 1:22manager surveys we’ve conducted so
43. 1:24far. I’d like to review this and
44. 1:25explore how we should approach things
45. 1:27moving forward. Looking at the market
46. 1:29environment from January to September
47. 1:30as a whole, from January to March,
48. 1:32there was a sense that the bull market
49. 1:33would continue. However, at the same
50. 1:35time, risks were building up; I think
51. 1:37that was the situation. This year, the
52. 1:39premise was global economic recovery,
53. 1:41AI investment, and improved financial
54. 1:43conditions, and based on this, many
55. 1:45fund managers were indeed forecasting
56. 1:47an economic upturn. Cash ratios fell to
57. 1:493.2%, which shows that the bullish
58. 1:51sentiment was quite strong. But during
59. 1:53this time, well, a war broke out. With
60. 1:55the US and Iran, from March to April,
61. 1:57so-called geopolitical risks and
62. 1:59concerns about stagflation rose a bit.
63. 2:01Crude oil supply from the Middle East
64. 2:04stopped, energy prices rose, and we
65. 2:06entered a phase of economic slowdown
66. 2:08and renewed inflation, causing the
67. 2:10economic outlook in April to
68. 2:11deteriorate by 36%. April was when the
69. 2:13underlying market assumptions started
70. 2:15to crumble. Everything changed all of a
71. 2:17sudden. It really changed completely,
72. 2:18didn't it? After that, from May to
73. 2:22August, the mood improved again, and in
74. 2:24May, the net underweight level for
75. 2:26stocks surged to 50%. Fund managers
76. 2:30must have changed their thinking to
77. 2:31believe that the market would bottom
78. 2:33out and recover. Cash ratios fell to
79. 2:353.6%in July and 3.5%in August, as
80. 2:37investment behavior continued to
81. 2:39reflect a belief in AI investment and
82. 2:41economic resilience. Entering September
83. 2:43, the stance shifted from bullish to
84. 2:45somewhat cautious. Yields. These
85. 2:48started to rise. More fund managers
86. 2:51began to see this as a tail risk, so
87. 2:52the allocation to stocks and
88. 2:54risk-taking were curtailed slightly.
89. 2:57While it wasn't a situation where a
90. 2:59recession was strongly expected,
91. 3:00September was when rising inflation and
92. 3:02interest rates began to weigh on stock
93. 3:04prices. Now, I’d like to look back at
94. 3:06how fund managers felt in January, and
95. 3:08the scenario for economic expansion was
96. 3:10strong at the time. There were 38%net
97. 3:13who expected the economy to continue
98. 3:15improving over the 12 months. Well,
99. 3:17so-called "no landing" was really the
100. 3:19central narrative, wasn't it? Rather
101. 3:21than just stock prices rising, the
102. 3:23movements were driven by expectations
103. 3:24for AI-related capital investment,
104. 3:26profit growth, and improved liquidity.
105. 3:28And the cash ratio was 3.2%, with a net
106. 3:3048%overweight in equities. So, January
107. 3:33was a month where a very bullish stance
108. 3:35was taken. However, looking at February
109. 3:36through March. Specifically, at the end
110. 3:38of February, a war broke out. But
111. 3:40before that, in February, there was the
112. 3:42"Bull&Bear Indicator," which measures
113. 3:44bullish or bearish sentiment; it
114. 3:46reached 9.5 points, the highest level
115. 3:48in five years, signaling that an
116. 3:50overheated market was a major concern.
117. 3:52High-tech and semiconductor stocks were
118. 3:54being bought, but the war at the end of
119. 3:56February caused a rapid deterioration
120. 3:57in sentiment, with Middle East tensions
121. 3:59rising and excessive optimism suddenly
122. 4:01retreating. Along with that, the risk
123. 4:03of stagflation. This rose sharply,
124. 4:04leading to money flowing out of
125. 4:06economically sensitive stocks. And into
126. 4:07defensive stocks and commodities. That
127. 4:09was the situation where money was
128. 4:10flowing into those areas, wasn't it?
129. 4:12Then in April, with warnings of
130. 4:13stagflation surging, looking at US
131. 4:15stocks, long-term government bonds,
132. 4:17gold, and crude oil, the view that the
133. 4:19war would intensify inflation and cause
134. 4:21an economic slowdown gained momentum
135. 4:23all at once. However, strangely enough,
136. 4:25entering May, bullish views
137. 4:26strengthened rapidly again, and there
138. 4:28was a massive shift in stock
139. 4:30allocations, with the percentage of
140. 4:32those saying they would be overweight
141. 4:34in equities jumping from 13%to a
142. 4:36staggering 50%. The cash ratio also
143. 4:38dropped from 4.3%to 3.9%, so the
144. 4:40bearish sentiment didn't last. In fact,
145. 4:42even though the war hadn't ended,
146. 4:44investor sentiment improved rapidly,
147. 4:46leading to a move to put money back
148. 4:48into stocks. It really showed that
149. 4:50investor sentiment can change quite
150. 4:52easily, didn't it? By July and August,
151. 4:54confidence in AI investment reached its
152. 4:56peak. The economic outlook—
153. 4:58specifically the "no-landing" scenario,
154. 5:00meaning no economic downturn or
155. 5:02expansion—has reached an all-time
156. 5:03high, and in July, the cash ratio also
157. 5:05dropped to 36%. And we also saw an
158. 5:07increase in the overweighting of stocks
159. 5:09. Although the pace of improvement in
160. 5:11the economic outlook slowed, fund
161. 5:13managers actually turned more bullish
162. 5:15on stock positions, maintaining a
163. 5:16bullish stance throughout July and
164. 5:18August. However, as we entered
165. 5:19September, the focus shifted from the
166. 5:21economy to becoming more wary of the
167. 5:23sudden spike in interest rates.
168. 5:24Long-term rates also jumped suddenly in
169. 5:26September, hitting 5%, so inevitably,
170. 5:28vigilance regarding interest rates has
171. 5:30increased more than ever. When looking
172. 5:33at economic trends, cash ratios, and
173. 5:35the overweight/underweight ratios of
174. 5:37stocks, the situation has changed
175. 5:38slightly as of September. As a result,
176. 5:44the biggest tail risk has shifted from
177. 5:46the AI bubble to the rise in bond
178. 5:48yields. This was the case in September.
179. 5:50The disorderly rise in bond yields.
180. 5:53This is considered the biggest tail
181. 5:54risk, as it is difficult when bond
182. 5:56yields rise. When interest rates rise,
183. 5:58those kinds of concerns inevitably
184. 6:00emerge. Furthermore, concerns over an
185. 6:01AI bubble relate to valuation issues in
186. 6:03specific stock sectors, whereas the
187. 6:05sudden spike in bond yields is
188. 6:06different. Such things have a negative
189. 6:08impact on stocks, bonds, real estate,
190. 6:10currency, and credit markets. This is
191. 6:12treated as a so-called systemic risk.
192. 6:14Therefore, I believe September was a
193. 6:16month where concerns heightened that
194. 6:18rising long-term interest rates would
195. 6:20lower the present value of future
196. 6:21earnings and devalue stocks. So, up
197. 6:23until now, the prevailing view was that
198. 6:25the Fed would likely cut rates, but
199. 6:27that expectation has gradually faded
200. 6:29and shifted toward vigilance regarding
201. 6:31rate hikes, and in fact, they did raise
202. 6:33rates at the September FOMC meeting.
203. 6:34Fund managers have naturally had to
204. 6:36align with this direction as well, so
205. 6:38expectations that the Fed would not
206. 6:40raise rates before the November midterm
207. 6:41elections have certainly decreased.
208. 6:43Although, as it turned out, they
209. 6:45already went ahead and raised them. As
210. 6:46we look at things, and fund managers
211. 6:48likely share this view, I think it's
212. 6:50probably best not to assume that
213. 6:52inflation will just keep falling
214. 6:53rapidly. We must keep a close watch on
215. 6:56how these rate hikes will impact the
216. 6:58economy and corporations going forward.
217. 7:00I believe we have entered that kind of
218. 7:01stage. However, if financial profits
219. 7:03continue to grow steadily, I think
220. 7:05stock prices can still rise
221. 7:06sufficiently, even if interest rates
222. 7:07remain somewhat elevated. Next, the
223. 7:10cash ratio rose to 3.9%in September.
224. 7:12That is an improvement from 3.5%in
225. 7:15August, but the warning threshold in
226. 7:17the fund manager survey is set at 4%.
227. 7:19Therefore, since it is still below that
228. 7:21level, we can say that the bullish
229. 7:23sentiment hasn't changed much. The
230. 7:24question is whether they will manage
231. 7:26their portfolios with a bit more of a
232. 7:27buffer from here, and whether it will
233. 7:29exceed 4%. We will need to keep a close
234. 7:30eye on that. When the cash ratio
235. 7:32actually exceeds 4%, we will surely
236. 7:34need to watch how stock allocations,
237. 7:36economic outlooks, and credit spreads
238. 7:38are shaping up. However, even if the
239. 7:40cash ratio has increased, it would be
240. 7:42fine if the allocation to stocks—
241. 7:43rather than bonds—remained high. But
242. 7:45if the stock allocation has also
243. 7:47decreased, it suggests that investors
244. 7:48are starting to reduce their risk, so
245. 7:50we definitely need to be cautious here.
246. 7:52So, entering September, the overweight
247. 7:54position in global stocks is at a net
248. 7:5649%, which is a certain decline from
249. 7:59the 56%we saw in August. Still, even at
250. 8:0149%, that level is quite high, so we
251. 8:03cannot say that the bullish stance on
252. 8:06stocks has completely changed. If
253. 8:09corporate earnings continue to improve
254. 8:11and long-term interest rates stay high
255. 8:13but stop rising, I believe stocks can
256. 8:15still rise sufficiently, but if
257. 8:16earnings disappoint, things could go in
258. 8:18reverse. On the other hand, regarding
259. 8:21bonds, the September fund manager
260. 8:23survey shows an underweight position in
261. 8:25bonds at a net -48%. A stance of "we
262. 8:27are not buying bonds." This has become
263. 8:29quite clear among fund managers. In
264. 8:31fact, 27%of respondents suggested that
265. 8:34the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield could
266. 8:36reach 6%or higher. It seems that voices
267. 8:38are gradually beginning to emerge that
268. 8:40make excuses for the rise in long-term
269. 8:42interest rates. However, if the
270. 8:43underweight position in bonds becomes
271. 8:45too extreme, when the situation changes
272. 8:47suddenly—for example, if yields drop
273. 8:49sharply—we might see a sudden rush of
274. 8:50buybacks, which could cause yields to
275. 8:52fall even further, so we need to keep a
276. 8:54close watch on that. Therefore, there
277. 8:56is the possibility that capital
278. 8:57allocation will spread from U.S. stocks
279. 8:59to emerging market stocks. This point
280. 9:00is also being highlighted. With the
281. 9:02overweight position in U.S. stocks
282. 9:04dropping to a net + 25%and emerging
283. 9:06markets rising to + 38%, we are indeed
284. 9:08starting to see some movement. It’s
285. 9:10no longer a one-way bet on the U.S.
286. 9:12This doesn't mean growth expectations
287. 9:13for the U.S. have collapsed, but rather
288. 9:15that investors are starting to look for
289. 9:17opportunities outside of the U.S.,
290. 9:19showing a broader perspective. However,
291. 9:21emerging markets do come with various
292. 9:23risks. With risks like growth rates,
293. 9:25currencies, capital controls, and
294. 9:26political instability, we’ll need to
295. 9:28keep a close watch on those factors. AI
296. 9:30and semiconductors remain a crowded and
297. 9:33popular trade. The stance remains to
298. 9:35keep buying semiconductor stocks. Among
299. 9:37fund managers, this sentiment hasn't
300. 9:39really changed. However, because
301. 9:40positions are so concentrated in
302. 9:42semiconductors, if those companies '
303. 9:44earnings deteriorate, we could see a
304. 9:46sudden sell-off, so we must keep a
305. 9:48close eye on that. What investors are
306. 9:50currently prioritizing is the quality
307. 9:52of earnings. With a net 79%of
308. 9:53respondents expecting high-quality
309. 9:55earnings companies to outperform those
310. 9:57with lower quality, the focus is on
311. 9:59investing in firms with high
312. 10:00profitability. Also, a net 41%prefer
313. 10:02large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks,
314. 10:05indicating a clear leaning toward a
315. 10:07large-cap-oriented strategy. It’s
316. 10:09clear that fund managers are focusing
317. 10:11on earnings sustainability, cash flow,
318. 10:13pricing power, and financial health. On
319. 10:16the other hand, the idea that defensive
320. 10:18stocks are always a safe bet doesn't
321. 10:19seem to be holding up. For instance,
322. 10:21consumer staples are currently at a net
323. 10:24-33%underweight. This is the weakest
324. 10:26stance on defensive stocks since
325. 10:28January 2004, showing an active move
326. 10:30away from them. Conversely, allocations
327. 10:32to banks, healthcare, and capital goods
328. 10:33are increasing, suggesting that current
329. 10:35positioning is more wary of rising
330. 10:37interest rates and persistent inflation
331. 10:39than an economic recession, which is
332. 10:40something to keep in mind. And lastly,
333. 10:42gold, crude oil, and commodities. It
334. 10:44has a different role than stocks. This
335. 10:46year, it's about geopolitical risks,
336. 10:48energy supply concerns, and the state
337. 10:50of financial markets. These have become
338. 10:51the main themes, haven't they? Back in
339. 10:53January, being long on gold was the
340. 10:55most crowded trade. 51%of respondents
341. 10:59said gold, but because everyone bought
342. 11:01in, it hit a high and then plummeted.
343. 11:05That's what happens when you do things
344. 11:06you're not used to. Since they bought
345. 11:08into something they weren't used to,
346. 11:10it's taking quite a while to resolve.
347. 11:11And regarding the midterm elections, I
348. 11:13think we should look at them as a chain
349. 11:15reaction of policies, interest rates,
350. 11:16and stock prices. In September, 44%of
351. 11:18people expected the Democrats to
352. 11:20control the House and the Republicans
353. 11:22to keep the Senate in the November
354. 11:24midterms. However, it's possible the
355. 11:26Democrats might even take the Senate
356. 11:27now. So, it's a situation where it
357. 11:29might not be a split Congress, but the
358. 11:31Democrats could take full control. But
359. 11:34I think it's important not to simply
360. 11:35link election results to higher or
361. 11:37lower stock prices. It's crucial to
362. 11:40look closely at corporate earnings and
363. 11:42past stock price data to make your
364. 11:43judgments. So, looking at the survey up
365. 11:46to September, common weaknesses among
366. 11:48investors include concentrated bullish
367. 11:50positions, reliance on AI growth, and
368. 11:52overestimating inflation. Looking at
369. 11:54this, it seems that everyone had become
370. 11:56too optimistic. In response, we've
371. 11:58started to see some more cautious moves
372. 12:00in September. I think that's the reason
373. 12:02why the rise in stock prices was
374. 12:04somewhat restrained in September. So,
375. 12:08I've identified three expected actions
376. 12:10for fund managers heading toward the
377. 12:12end of the year. Basically, I’m
378. 12:16hoping for interest rate stability. If
379. 12:18that happens, they will likely maintain
380. 12:20their equity holdings and, after
381. 12:21carefully assessing earnings growth,
382. 12:22continue buying mainly US stocks,
383. 12:23particularly in semiconductors; however
384. 12:25, if we see a resurgence in inflation
385. 12:26and rising interest rates like in
386. 12:28scenario B, they may choose to trim
387. 12:29their equity risk. They might pivot
388. 12:30toward short-term bonds or focus more
389. 12:32on real assets. There is a possibility
390. 12:33of that outcome, so we must consider
391. 12:35that scenario B is a real possibility.
392. 12:37I would say that we still need to
393. 12:38remain cautious here. At this stage, I
394. 12:40don't think there's much need to worry
395. 12:42about scenarios C and D. Therefore,
396. 12:43it’s not about selling off all stocks
397. 12:45at this time, but rather about
398. 12:47mitigating the risk of being too
399. 12:48concentrated. Even as of September,
400. 12:50fund managers still maintain a high
401. 12:52overweight position in global equities.
402. 12:55So, while they aren't necessarily
403. 12:57bearish, concentrating capital solely
404. 12:59in large-cap tech or semiconductors
405. 13:01could prove very difficult if interest
406. 13:03rates rise; therefore, while keeping US
407. 13:05stock indices as the core, I think it's
408. 13:07better to properly diversify into
409. 13:09high-quality companies across the US,
410. 13:11emerging markets, and Europe. As for
411. 13:14bonds, we will need to keep a close
412. 13:15watch on yield levels and how monetary
413. 13:17policy evolves. Currently, fund
414. 13:19managers are maintaining a
415. 13:20significantly underweight position in
416. 13:22bonds. Because they anticipate that
417. 13:24interest rates might rise, they are
418. 13:25avoiding bond holdings, but I believe
419. 13:27you should avoid investing in long-term
420. 13:29bonds solely because the yields look
421. 13:31attractive. If the supply-demand
422. 13:32balance for government bonds worsens or
423. 13:34interest rates continue to climb, it
424. 13:35will become impossible to exit
425. 13:36long-term bond positions, so those who
426. 13:37insist on buying bonds should stick to
427. 13:39short-term ones. I think it would be
428. 13:40better to gradually extend your
429. 13:42investment horizon. And then, gold and
430. 13:44commodities. You really should include
431. 13:45these as part of your diversification
432. 13:47strategy. Fund managers are actually
433. 13:49doing exactly that. For protection
434. 13:50against geopolitical risk and inflation
435. 13:52, gold and commodities are definitely
436. 13:54the way to go. They serve a different
437. 13:57role than stocks and bonds, so I think
438. 13:59we should follow suit. So, moving
439. 14:03forward, you can check the monthly Bank
440. 14:05of America fund manager survey, and I
441. 14:07highly recommend keeping an eye on
442. 14:08these five indicators. First, whether
443. 14:11the cash ratio continues to stay below
444. 14:134%. Second, whether the overweight
445. 14:15position in stocks and bullish
446. 14:16sentiment will increase further. Third,
447. 14:18what happens with economic growth
448. 14:19outlooks and earnings expectations.
449. 14:20Fourth, concerns over bond yields and
450. 14:22whether interest rates are rising. And
451. 14:24fifth, the state of crowded trades. You
452. 14:26really need to monitor these closely.
453. 14:31In conclusion, the biggest lesson from
454. 14:33the fund manager surveys from January
455. 14:35to September of this year is that a
456. 14:37bullish stance on the economy and the
457. 14:39scale of risks in the market are
458. 14:40actually coexisting. At the beginning
459. 14:43of the year, expectations for an
460. 14:45economic re-acceleration were strong.
461. 14:46However, the war brought concerns of
462. 14:48stagflation in April, but from May to
463. 14:50August, that reversed and allocations
464. 14:52to stocks increased again. Then in
465. 14:54September, as interest rates rose
466. 14:55slightly, talk of a recession emerged.
467. 14:57Although that was discussed, what
468. 14:59actually happened was a sharp spike in
469. 15:01bond yields. So, the crucial turning
470. 15:04point ahead is whether corporate
471. 15:06earnings growth can absorb these high
472. 15:07interest rates, and I believe that is
473. 15:09what fund managers will be watching. I
474. 15:11believe that if profit growth continues
475. 15:13and interest rates stabilize, the
476. 15:15strong stock market will likely
477. 15:17continue. However, rising interest
478. 15:18rates will put pressure on profit
479. 15:20forecasts. And if stock valuations are
480. 15:22also pressured, I think we should
481. 15:24consider the possibility that selling
482. 15:26will emerge. But toward the end of the
483. 15:30year, it's not about selling off all
484. 15:32stocks or buying unconditionally; I
485. 15:34think it will be necessary, especially
486. 15:36in October, to keep a certain amount of
487. 15:38cash while carefully confirming profit
488. 15:40growth and then buying the dips. I see.
489. 15:44Looking back like this is very
490. 15:46educational. Yes. That's right. As for
491. 15:48the big picture, this year we had high
492. 15:49hopes for stocks in January, the war at
493. 15:51the end of February, and instability in
494. 15:53March and April. But then it suddenly
495. 15:55recovered in May. September felt a bit
496. 15:57unstable with rising interest rates,
497. 15:59and I think fund managers were watching
498. 16:01that while also correcting some of the
499. 16:03overextended trends, which likely eased
500. 16:05in September. Also, when financial
501. 16:07results come out from here, it comes
502. 16:08down to which is stronger: the earnings
503. 16:10or the rise in interest rates. Fund
504. 16:12managers will likely be watching that
505. 16:14and adjusting their investments
506. 16:16accordingly; if earnings grow and
507. 16:17interest rates don't necessarily fall
508. 16:19but stay flat or don't rise, I think
509. 16:21that's sufficient. If profit growth is
510. 16:23stronger, stocks can be bought, so we
511. 16:25want to watch closely to see if fund
512. 16:27managers reach that conclusion and make
513. 16:28our own decisions accordingly.
514. 16:30>> Understood. Thank you.
515. 16:31>> Yes. Thank you for watching this video.
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